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Shiiiiit, with Saleh dead we could see some serious civil war poo poo going down.
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 14:47 |
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# ? May 21, 2024 11:02 |
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I don't think anyone expected him to be killed like this, so quickly, so I doubt any of the groups involved are really prepared. I'm guessing the GCC will try to take control of the situation before it spirals out of control and Saudi Arabia ends up with a warzone on it's border. The AP has just put up an article about yesterdays events: quote:Rebels in western Libya seize mountain towns I like how they call it a stalemate, and at the same time say the rebels have had a significant victory. Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 14:51 on Jun 3, 2011 |
# ? Jun 3, 2011 14:48 |
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2ndclasscitizen posted:What are the ramifications if he has been killed? Dancing in the streets?
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 14:56 |
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I don't think an impending civil war based on resource (water) scarcity and tribal divisions is really something to dance about.
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 15:17 |
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2ndclasscitizen posted:What are the ramifications if he has been killed? Judging by the events leading up to it it seems as though there could still be some serious conflict for control of the country. More likely it would result in a quick transition of power to the Hashids. I don't think it's true though.
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 16:15 |
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Two hours have passed since they announced they'd be making a statement in an hour, another bad sign for the Yemeni government.
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 16:28 |
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Brown Moses posted:I like how they call it a stalemate, and at the same time say the rebels have had a significant victory. The two aren't exactly mutually exclusive. If the rebels score a massive victory, followed by the loyalists moving back to a position that they can not attack from, or lose, then both are true. I'm not agreeing with it being a stalemate, I'm just saying that both are technically possible at the same time. Also, there were quite a few airstrikes near Tripoli today. Could they be gearing up for something big?
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 16:35 |
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Yeah, there were more airstrikes around Tripoli, although it still does seem to be mainly comms centres and vehicle and ammo stores. The UK Military Ops Twitter feed just mentioned they destroyed two APCs and two Tanks heading towards Yefren yesterday, so hopefully they'll be making sure the rebels in that area are getting enough support to hold the cities. If the rebels can secure that whole area and fortify it then they'll pretty much have a giant fortress.
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 16:41 |
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Consensus seems to be that Saleh was injured in the attack on the presidential palace's mosque and taken to the hospital for burn damage on his face. The government has walked back its claim that Saleh will give a speech tonight, the deputy information minister al-Janadi did instead. The Hashid tribe is also heavily denying they were involved in the attack, despite earlier intense clashes between them and Saleh. That leaves Saleh's defected soldiers, basically, although it's not like RPGs are a rarity in Yemen. Whoever did it has shown no interest in claiming credit though. Pentagon briefing also revealed there's still about 100 US military trainers in Yemen for al Qaeda, though it's not clear what they are doing. They've denied any US-trained forces were involved in attacks on protesters. Congress is also pretty pissed about Libya, and HoR is close to passing a resolution demanding more info about the strikes and US involvement.
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 18:42 |
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Brown Moses posted:Two hours have passed since they announced they'd be making a statement in an hour, another bad sign for the Yemeni government. At this point, it's pretty much a sign that if he's still living he won't be physically able to be the president. Xandu posted:Consensus seems to be that Saleh was injured in the attack on the presidential palace's mosque and taken to the hospital for burn damage on his face. The government has walked back its claim that Saleh will give a speech tonight, the deputy information minister al-Janadi did instead. So instead of getting a dictatorship shooting its own citizens, we're going to have more than two groups possibly maneuvering for power in the absence of the current leader. Crap.
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 19:24 |
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There's lots of disparate groups in Yemen right now with their own motivations and goals (the Hashid tribe, the actual protesters, the JMP, the defected ministers/soldiers) but the force pushing Yemen towards civil war has been Saleh. If he left, things would calm down by quite a bit.
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 19:30 |
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Still no sign of Saleh, there's rumours he received wounds to the neck, and the Guardian has this piece about what the attack on the palace means:quote:Yemen: attack on president keeps observers guessing There's also some unconfirmed reports that the first truck of aid has arrived in Yefren, which must mean the rebels control a route back to the Tunisian border. Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 19:58 on Jun 3, 2011 |
# ? Jun 3, 2011 19:51 |
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The Guardian is reporting Saleh is giving an audio only statement on State TV. Apparently it was short, just three lines, and his voice was described as "pained and gurgling", if it sounded like him at all. [edit] Bit more from the Guardian: quote:Yemen's state television has played what appears to be an audio tape of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, speaking about the attack that killed several of his guards and associates. Here's the latest map of events from Libya: Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 20:11 on Jun 3, 2011 |
# ? Jun 3, 2011 20:03 |
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Brown Moses posted:Someone just posted this on Twitter, it's a map of who controls which towns and cities: Bir Ayyid, just north of Yefren on the above map, is apparently cleared of Gaddafi forces. Jadu, west of Yefren, repelled a Gaddafi attack, and captured some 4x4's and weapon and ammo trucks. Jadu has also had it's mobile phone network and electricity supply restored.
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 20:27 |
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Jenan Moussa is have a hard think on Twitter:quote:Let's think logically about it! Imam in mosque declared dead then not dead. #Saleh must be praying in front row behind Imam.
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 21:08 |
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Back in 2009 Iran shut off their internet and college students swarmed to proxies. I set up some small Windows program that shared my connection with several Iranians and Chinese people for http only. I'd like to set up a proxy of this sort again but the only information I can find on creating one's own proxy server are formal/classic actual servers. Any advice or ideas on what that program was? I can set up a proxy but handing out the IP to people who can actually use it is beyond me.
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 21:55 |
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Saleh probably staged this "attack" himself, definitely wouldn't put it past him.
Ham fucked around with this message at 22:12 on Jun 3, 2011 |
# ? Jun 3, 2011 22:02 |
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I really don't think Salehs possible death would quiet down things in Yemen, Xandu. There seem to be too many groups which would contest violently with any central government not under their control. Sure you can point to some very serious efforts to maintain peaceful protests, but I think there are enough armed groups willing to fight to break things down further. Yuan Shikai is dead, long live the warlords. Of course that's not really an accurate parallel, but Xandu I'm not sure what you see in the situation that suggests further violent escalation from competing groups when Saleh is removed.
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 22:04 |
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There are, but a lot of those groups, whether al Qaeda, the Houthis, or the secessionists, have been doing so for years. It wouldn't be much of a change for them to keep fighting and none of them have been particularly active during this revolution (al Qaeda kind of took over a small town, but the Yemeni government has never had much control over the periphery). The groups currently fighting in Sana'a, I don't see them violently contesting a new government if Saleh leaves, most of them would benefit much more from stability.Ham posted:Saleh probably staged this "attack" himself, definitely wouldn't put it beyond him. He sounded pretty bad in his speech, though.
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 22:09 |
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Heran Bago posted:Back in 2009 Iran shut off their internet and college students swarmed to proxies. I set up some small Windows program that shared my connection with several Iranians and Chinese people for http only. https://www.torproject.org/ Their blog also has some interesting reports on how Iran/Egypt etc go about attempting to block them and how they respond.
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 22:11 |
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Here's a good video from CNN from the area west of Misrata.
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 22:16 |
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This isn't to say Yemen will turn into some nice, peaceful, and successful country, but I don't think the fighting would ramp up if Saleh leaves.
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 22:16 |
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Xandu posted:There are, but a lot of those groups, whether al Qaeda, the Houthis, or the secessionists, have been doing so for years. It wouldn't be much of a change for them to keep fighting and none of them have been particularly active during this revolution (al Qaeda kind of took over a small town, but the Yemeni government has never had much control over the periphery). The groups currently fighting in Sana'a, I don't see them violently contesting a new government if Saleh leaves, most of them would benefit much more from stability. They have, but the death of Saleh would be a straight-up, old-fashioned, succession crisis. In such circumstances the existence of established separatist and rebel groups aren't the same old threat but instead newly re-empowered actors who suddenly feel now is the time to push hardest while the center is in absolute disarray. Looking at the collapse of governments, it becomes readily apparent that there are circumstances where crises create other crises as everyone seeks to grab what they can from the collapse... I think Yemen's headed in that direction.
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 22:21 |
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There's claims of a protest made up of 100's of people in the Ben Ashour District of Tripoli tonight, from the Tripoli rebels Twitter account, they said they are trying to upload some photos.
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 22:24 |
Amused to Death posted:I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt to an organization actually at least covering the problem of rape in a region where to convict a rapist you often need multiple witnesses who have to be men. Just want to point out that this is a misunderstanding of Islamic law. You need four witnesses (who have literally witnessed the act) to prove a case of zina, or adultery (which is a crime for both parties). This is usually interpreted to mean that the (very) harsh punishment for zina is meant to be more of a public indecency thing rather than an issue of private morality. Rape is more complicated, and is often a sort of he said she said thing, so in the absence of overwhelming proof (especially before the advent of rape kits and DNA testing and stuff, i.e. most of Islamic history) both parties would just walk away from the situation because the court couldn't make a determination. The problem is that Saudi Arabia has such innovative (from a legal perspective) restrictions on the movement and associations of women that if a woman claims she was raped she is admitting that she was in the company of men who weren't her family, which is criminalized, so she'll get punished for that, and since rape can be difficult to determine (and you bet your rear end the loving Saudi authorities don't bend over backwards with their rape kits), the man often gets no punishment. This is where people get the idea that women are punished for being raped under Islamic law, when in fact the issue is that women are often punished in addition to being raped under Saudi law. They are the worst. لعن الله آل سعود In Pakistan after the introduction of elements of Islamic law into the colonial-era legal system they defined rape as zina bil-jabr or "adultery by force" which made proving rape require 4 witnesses in contrast to the historical standard of Islamic law, which relied on the woman's testimony. That's probably where the idea of witnesses to prove rape came from.
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 23:26 |
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Kenning posted:Just want to point out that this is a misunderstanding of Islamic law. You need four witnesses (who have literally witnessed the act) to prove a case of zina, or adultery (which is a crime for both parties). This is usually interpreted to mean that the (very) harsh punishment for zina is meant to be more of a public indecency thing rather than an issue of private morality. Rape is more complicated, and is often a sort of he said she said thing, so in the absence of overwhelming proof (especially before the advent of rape kits and DNA testing and stuff, i.e. most of Islamic history) both parties would just walk away from the situation because the court couldn't make a determination. This was actually a really informative post, thanks!
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# ? Jun 3, 2011 23:36 |
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Shabab Libya just published this press release:quote:To whom it may concern,
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# ? Jun 4, 2011 00:05 |
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Kenning posted:لعن الله آل سعود آمين to that. Have the Qataris provided any sort of justification for deporting Iman el-Obeidi?
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# ? Jun 4, 2011 01:00 |
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Brown Moses posted:Shabab Libya just published this press release: I presume that means that they've cleared the areas around Zinten then, right? That route is pretty long, so that means they probably cleared all the towns near it.
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# ? Jun 4, 2011 02:20 |
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NATO launches helicopter strikes in Libya quote:NATO has for the first time used attack helicopters in Libya, striking military vehicles, military equipment and forces backing embattled leader Muammar Gaddafi, the military alliance has annouced. Major advance quote:The NATO offensive came as Libyan opposition fighters made a major advance towards the capital, Tripoli after claiming victory in western Libyan towns against forces loyal to leader Muammar Gaddafi. Meeting with rebels quote:Meanwhile, the Chinese foreign ministry said that China's ambassador to Qatar recently met with the head of Libya's opposition council, the first known meeting between the two sides.
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# ? Jun 4, 2011 06:06 |
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Lascivious Sloth posted:NATO launches helicopter strikes in Libya Now that's something to watch closely! If reports are true and the Brit Apaches are over Brega, an easier target environment than Misrata or Tripolitania, there might be stuff happening. If/when Brega falls, the best-supplied & most numerous & less-experienced rebel force could be in a good position to push through to El Agheila, Ras Lanuf, Sidrah, Nawfaliyah, Harawiyah and... Sirte? Interesting analysis: Foreign Policy posted:Libyan Limbo – Six reasons why it’s been so tough to get Gaddafi to quit About oil: Reuters posted:Libya rebels are not revising oil deals About money New York Times posted:Rebel Libya Finance Chief Hunts for Funds and Hope Qadhafi Ammo dump Royal Air Force posted:Goes BOOM, you bloody wanker ecureuilmatrix fucked around with this message at 07:11 on Jun 4, 2011 |
# ? Jun 4, 2011 07:04 |
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quadratic posted:آمين to that. Not really, though here's what Google Translate thinks Al Jazeera has on it: (from http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/2854885C-9F74-45A5-A72A-1CE44B7B95D2.htm) Google Translate of Aljazeera.net posted:Condemned the UN High Commissioner for Refugees United Nations Qatar to remove them citizenship Libyan Arab Jamahiriya said that the members of the Brigades, the Libyan Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, tortured her and raped her, while Washington expressed its disappointment about it. Searching for Iman Al-Obeidy shows that Al-Jazeera has been covering her moves, and lately the deportation.
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# ? Jun 4, 2011 08:22 |
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More detail about the helicopter strikesbbc posted:UK Apache attack helicopters have been used over Libya for the first time, Nato has confirmed.
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# ? Jun 4, 2011 10:23 |
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The Guardian is saying the French helicopters destroyed 15 vehicles, and 5 military command buildings, in other areas of Libya, hopefully near Zliten. I'm guessing the Gaddafi forces in Brega are seriously considering their options at this point in time, they are pretty much sitting ducks.
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# ? Jun 4, 2011 10:46 |
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Armored vehicles being seen used in Taiz. I'm also seeing a few reports on twitter from Taiz residents that an armed group has started fighting back against the army there and is winning, which hasn't happened before there. There's various reports that Yemeni officials injured in yesterday's attack are being moved to Saudi Arabia for treatment, but the government just denied that the president left. A 400-man unit has also defected from the regime to join Ali Mohsin's soldiers.
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# ? Jun 4, 2011 12:08 |
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So were the french were using Gazelles or Tigres ? Both it seems, according to pictures from last night.
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# ? Jun 4, 2011 12:21 |
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pylb posted:So were the french were using Gazelles or Tigres ? Both it seems, according to pictures from last night. If that's what I think it is (the remains of Qaddafi regime infantry forces), that's definitely the 30mm gun on the Tiger being used here. Of course, I have no sense of scale or clarity what I'm looking at in that picture, so it could be something else.
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# ? Jun 4, 2011 12:26 |
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Xandu posted:but the government just denied that the president left. I just noticed that the original source for the claim the president left Yemen was al-Arabiya, run by the Saudi government. It sounds like a bullshit rumor, but you know never. edit: \/\/\/\/\/ he's not the 2nd in command, but yeah. Xandu fucked around with this message at 12:35 on Jun 4, 2011 |
# ? Jun 4, 2011 12:30 |
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As a bit of an aside there's claims from the Pakistani government that the Al Qaeda second in command (after bin Laden) was killed in a drone strike. Here's a British pilot talking about last nights strikes : http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-13653032
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# ? Jun 4, 2011 12:34 |
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# ? May 21, 2024 11:02 |
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pylb posted:So were the french were using Gazelles or Tigres ? Both it seems, according to pictures from last night. The tubes on the Gazelle's wing stubs are HOT-3 missile launchers. The box above the cockpit is the Viviane thermal imaging system, so it can fire its missiles to 4km at night. Libyan army stands no chance. The Tiger can carry more Hellfires which also have twice the range, and it's all around better protected anyway. But it also appears that they're loading unguided rockets onto the Tiger, so it seems that they're not afraid to get close enough to the enemy forces to release them, rather than just sniping from the distance. This means that they're hitting targets known to be less protected (like fuel depots) and/or they know the enemy air defences don't match their counter-measures and tactics. Let's hope they're right - attack helicopters can fail even on their own.
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# ? Jun 4, 2011 13:03 |