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Cable Guy
Jul 18, 2005

I don't expect any trouble, but we'll be handing these out later...




Slippery Tilde
I think it's safe to assume that in almost any press contingent, there are those taking whatever they hear (or are told to report) with a grain of salt, and let that be reflected in their reporting. We've seen that in every conflict since the 70's. How many times have we seen in conflicts of the last 20 years reporters showing verified examples of NATO and/or US errors, either of execution or judgement? How many times have we seen the military embarrassed by news reports?

They tried "embedding" reporters in Iraq but we still saw reports that damned (in some cases) allied actions. Some horrible truths still got exposed.

To assert that the ENTIRE press contingent has suddenly overnight decided to tow the NATO line by "subscribing to a perpetuated cover-up" (so to speak) is frankly, loving ludicrous. The press loves exposing a cover-up because it gets them RATINGS.

Fake edit: I use "NATO/US" in this example purely because the huge majority of WESTERN actions over the last few years have been NATO and/or US led. This is not a statement of politics, nor do I mean it to start a political derail. It's just a simple fact. We have to go back to the Falkland's before we get an action led by another western power, and in that arena, it was almost impossible to get a "free" (by that I mean free to go where they please) press purely because of the logistics involved.... hence it's moot.

edit: gently caress I hate being the first post on a page

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Slantedfloors
Apr 29, 2008

Wait, What?

ChaosSamusX posted:

We're saying that given the sheer flatness of CQ's propaganda campaign, it is fairly reasonable to assume that there has been almost no instance of collateral damage; otherwise it would be reported by Ghadaffi.
Or to put it another way: If there was credible evidence of widespread civilian deaths from NATO bombings, the state media would probably be running with that instead of reporting about burnt-out tractors and how much support the government is getting from genies and ghosts.

Slantedfloors fucked around with this message at 12:54 on Jun 28, 2011

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Few more updates:

Egypt

quote:

Debate in Egypt continues to rumble on over whether the election planned for September should be delayed until after a constitution has been drafted.

A press round up by al-Masry al-Youm says:

quote:

Several papers report the military's denial that presidential elections will be delayed until December - rather than take place in September as scheduled - while independent daily Al-Shorouk's headline declares "official confusion.
There's a great discussion on the issue on the new Arabist Podcast. Writer Issandr El Amrani blames lawyers for a poorly drafted and hastily drawn up referendum on constitutional amendments that did not make it clear when the elections should be held.

"This ambiguity should not be there. They really messed up the way this could be interpreted," he said.

Syria

quote:

Why did the government whip Brooks Newmark meet Syria's president Assad yesterday? The Foreign Office has stressed that Newmark's trip does not have government backing.
Brooks Newmark MP

But the trip threatens to undermine government attempts to present a tough line against Assad. Former foreign office minister, Denis MacShane has tabled a parliamentary question aimed highlighting the government's embarrassment.

MacShane said:

quote:

On the day that Bashar al-Assad's fellow despot, Colonel Gaddafi, is indicted by the International Criminal Court it is extraordinary that a government minister turns up in Damascus to meet with the man responsible for the deaths, disappearance, torture and repression of thousands of Syrians. Did Mr Newmark discuss his trip with William Hague?

Was it authorised by the Chief Whip? Who paid for the trip? How long was he in Syria? What did he say to Bashar al-Assad? It is without precedent that a minister on the government payroll goes off to meet a man now being accused of grave crimes against his people?

If the Foreign Office did authorise this trip it should have been reported to Parliament when William Hague spoke on the region last week. If it was not authorised by the Foreign Office then who is in charge of government foreign policy and contacts with dictators with blood on their hands?

Alan A on the Labour blog Harry's Place digs up some pro-Assad statements that Newmark made in 2007.

quote:

Yesterday's meeting of independent opponents of the Syrian regime was suspect and irrelevant, argues a Syrian dissident on Comment is Free.

quote:

The timing of this conference, as well as the circumstances under which it has been held, are all suspect...

The government only allowed the meeting to include those opponents with no previous affiliations or who did not belong to any political parties. As a result, only a handful of those attending would be recognised by the average Syrian...

The future of this country is being written on the streets of Syria's towns and cities, not in hotel conference rooms, whether Assad's regime likes it or not.

quote:

Brooks Newmark is not available for comment about his trip to Syria, a spokeswoman for the government whip said.

Here's the Foreign Office statement about the visit:

quote:

We are aware that Brooks Newmark MP travelled to Syria and met President Assad. He did so in a personal capacity. Newmark informed us of the visit and we made clear the UK's position and the steps that we think the Syrian regime should take. It is important that we use all means to convey the message to President Assad that he must reform or step aside.

Few bits from journalists of Twitter.

quote:

Dennis Kucinich presser in hotel just now. Asked him if visit is giving legitimacy to the regime. Said he met w/opposition also.
Kucinich when asked abt opposition meeting not involving all dissident: "there are always going to be differences of opinion."
Kucinich's wife Elizabeth whispered in her husband's ear several times during presser, seemingly making suggestion on what to say abt trip.

Differences of opinion like "I don't want to get shot/I want to shoot you".

Libya

quote:

China has refused to endorse the international arrest warrants issued against the Gaddafi regime.

Reuters quoted foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei as saying:

quote:

China hopes the international criminal court can prudently, justly and objectively carry out its duties, and ensure that its relevant work genuinely aids regional peace and stability.

Meanwhile, the court's prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo has urged Gaddafi's aides to turn in their leader. Gaddafi's inner circle has to decide whether to be part of the problem or part of the solution in Libya, he said according to AP.
Libya

quote:

Germany has offered to send missile parts to help the Nato mission in Libya despite its opposition to the campaign, officials confirmed today, writes Helen Pidd in Berlin.

quote:

The move seems to contradict Germany's hands-off position on the Libyan question, which was set in March when foreign minister Guido Westerwelle controversially abstained at the UN security council vote on intervention, siding with Russia and China rather than other western powers.

The air strikes began without Germany on board, but three months on, those in charge of the mission have admitted resources are running low.

"We have signalled our readiness to supply parts for position guided missiles," said Holger Neumann, press spokesman for the defence ministry on Tuesday.

He said Germany - along with other Nato countries - received a request at the end of May from the Nato Maintenance and Supply Agency (Nansa), asking members to contribute to the Libyan mission.

"They sent round a list of supplies they needed and we replied to say what we have got," said Neumann, refusing to specify go into more details about exactly what Germany had offered.

The deal is being interpreted in the media as an attempt by Germany to make amends for its abstention, which was badly received by the US, France and the UK. "By agreeing to these supplies, Germany is making a clear gesture to counteract its international isolation on the Libya question," said Spiegel Online, which broke the story on Monday night.
The outgoing US defence secretary Robert Gates heavily criticised Germany last month, along with Poland and other Nato countries, for not doing enough in Libya

But in an interview with Spiegel earlier this month, defence minister Thomas de Maiziere insisted Germany had been right to abstain.

"Our decision to not participate in the military part of the Libya mission was based on carefully considered reasons. It remains correct," he said.

He insisted Germany did not belong to the "well digging" category of Nato members dismissed by Gates last month, when he said there are two categories of Nato partners: those who fight and those who dig wells

The big Libya rumour on Twitter at the moment is the Nafusa rebels have managed to capture Al Qaa military depot, about 25km South of Zintan, which apparently is very large, and about 50% destroyed by NATO bombing. It was apparently still being used by Gaddafi troops in the area to resupply, so if this is true they've captured a good source of equipment, and denied it to Gaddafi's troops in the area.

I've got a Twitter account that only follows accounts that are relevant to the Arab Spring, so if you want to see what I'm looking at you can visit my account here. Some people I follow are more reliable than others, so don't take everything as gospel truth.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

@UKMilOps just Tweeted some information about yesterdays attacks, which I believe relates to the following from the NATO report:

quote:

In the vicinity of Zintan: 6 Armoured Personnel Carriers , 3 Tanks.
They said that they destroyed 3 tanks hidden under trees in a military compound near Gharyan, and four BTR-60 armoured personnel carriers concealed in woodlands near Yafran. Al Qaa military base is located in woodlands near Yafran, so it could have been vehicles being used to defend the base, which might explain why the rebels captured it.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Jonah Hull of AJE has confirmed the Nafusa rebels have captured the Al Qaa supply depot. He's tweeting some information about what he's seen.

quote:

Tons of heavy weapons and muntions carried by hundreds of cars and trucks back to mountain towns, including two Russian T-55 tanks. Seems every man with wheels took part in the haul. Will swell morale in the moutains, and perhaps add to momentum and advance.
It seems like this is a pretty major victory for the Nafusa rebels, the rebels have just captured the biggest supply depot in the region, and have already started emptying it, so even if it was recaptured it would be too late. Hopefully Jonah Hull will post more information soon, should be interesting to see what those captured heavy weapons are.

The fact that Gaddafi's forces have been unable to defend it, or stop it being looted after it was captured, really shows how weak they are in that area. Even if they had abandoned it they surely would have destroyed everything inside, it just seems like the Gaddafi's forces were totally unable to defend a key weapons depot, which suggest they are having some serious problems.

It's also interesting how Nafusa was the forgotten front for so long during the conflict, and over the last month has turned into the most active front, with the most progress being made.

[edit]There's now reports from Twitter via the same source as the Al Qaa rumours that NATO is hitting targets in and around Gheyran in the east of the Nafusa region.

[edit2]Here's a more detailed report:

quote:

Libyan rebels seize massive weapons depot
Reporting from Ghaaa military base, Libya—
Rebels in Libya's Nafusa mountains seized control of and pillaged a massive weapons depot Tuesday morning after a short desert battle with troops loyal to Moammar Kadafi, taking control of many tons of arms in the latest of a string of opposition victories in the country's west.

At least two rebels were killed in the fighting, said a medical official at the site.

Long convoys of pickups and tractor trailer trucks could be seen streaming across the desert to the site after the fighting. They were loaded with rockets, ammunition, high-caliber guns and assault rifles before heading back to rebel-held cities. The insurgents also seized dozens of military vehicles at the site, which consisted of dozens of concrete storage mounds scattered across the desert.

The victory gave the increasingly confident rebels here a boost. They were also galvanized by the International Criminal Court's decision Monday to issue arrest warrants for the Libyan leader, his son Seif Islam Kadafi and intelligence chief Abdullah Sanusi.

"Let's go to Bab Aziziya," said one rebel fighter, referring to Kadafi's residential compound in the capital, Tripoli.

The rebels, equipped with small arms and high-caliber artillery guns mounted on pickup trucks, staged a double-pronged attack on the vast desert facility called Ghaaa about 15 miles south of the rebel-controlled stronghold of Zintan.

The site had already been hit numerous times by NATO warplanes. Rebel fighters said they began approaching the site at midnight, with one group of fighters assigned to attack the base and another to cut off reinforcements from a nearby base.

The attack ended in less than half an hour, with about five dozen government soldiers fleeing to a nearby base at Twama. In addition to the two dead, at least four fighters were wounded in the fighting. Another four fighters later were badly wounded while opening what they described as a booby-trapped box of ammunition, said a Deutsche Welle journalist who saw the injured at Zintan hospital.

Some of the rebels began heading toward Twama, but appeared to be repelled by barrages of Grad and Katyusha rocket fire that shook the desert.

Rebels in Libya's mostly ethnic Amazigh Nafusa mountains have been waging an increasingly effective war against Kadafi since an uprising against his four-decade rule turned into a civil war between forces loyal and opposed to the Libyan leader. They have captured several small towns over the last month and pushed Kadafi's forces further back from the foothills of the mountains.

NATO warplanes also have been striking rocket launchers and military bases used by Kadafi's forces to fire on rebel-controlled cities.

"In the west we're seeing very good successes," Lt. Gen. Charles Bouchard, commander of the NATO mission, told reporters Tuesday. "The violence in Yefren and Zintan has ended."

Libya's official news agency reported that NATO had struck several sites in the capital on late Monday. The arrest warrants issued for Kadafi and his inner circle were "cover for NATO, which is still trying to assassinate Kadafi," Libyan Justice Minister Mohammad Qamudi was quoted as saying by Al Jazeera television.

"It is a political court which serves its European paymasters," Deputy Foreign Minister Khalid Kaim was quoted as saying. "Our own courts will deal with any human rights abuses and other crimes committed in the course of conflict in Libya."

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 16:32 on Jun 28, 2011

The X-man cometh
Nov 1, 2009
Does anyone have any idea why the Syrians haven't been able to begin an insurgency in the same way the Libyans were able to? I recognize that very few people are willing to be suicide bombers to allow access to an army base, but there are the same reports of soldiers defecting and refusing to carry out massacres, but the populace hasn't been able to establish a safe zone like Benghazi.

Anything outside powers like Turkey could do to help kickstart something like that?

Not that I'm in favor of a civil war, but it's bettter than indiscriminate killing country-wide.

shotgunbadger
Nov 18, 2008

WEEK 4 - RETIRED
You just asked how outside forces can kick up a civil war in a sovereign nation. You should think on that.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

AJE just posted a report by Jonah Hull from the captured ammo depot:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDfpNbazfvs
Can anyone identify the various shoulder rocket launchers they are carrying about? And was that a Shilka driving about with the tanks?

thats not candy
Mar 10, 2010

Hell Gem

el samayo grande posted:

Does anyone have any idea why the Syrians haven't been able to begin an insurgency in the same way the Libyans were able to? I recognize that very few people are willing to be suicide bombers to allow access to an army base, but there are the same reports of soldiers defecting and refusing to carry out massacres, but the populace hasn't been able to establish a safe zone like Benghazi.

The Syrian Army is gigantic compared to Libya's with something like five or six times the number of active personnel, 10x the armor, and a sizable reserve. The last time a city tried to garrison itself it was simply flattened.

globe
Jan 28, 2009
The rebels have begun communicating directly with NATO pilots!



CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler

Brown Moses posted:

AJE just posted a report by Jonah Hull from the captured ammo depot:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDfpNbazfvs
Can anyone identify the various shoulder rocket launchers they are carrying about? And was that a Shilka driving about with the tanks?

Those guys at 1:57 have two Strela anti aircraft missiles and that was indeed a Shilka between those two T-55's.

It also is interesting all those ammo crates have English text on them but it's probably a universal standard even for suppliers like Russia or China to label stuff they export in English.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

CeeJee posted:

It also is interesting all those ammo crates have English text on them but it's probably a universal standard even for suppliers like Russia or China to label stuff they export in English.

When the rebels took the depot at Misrata airport, a lot of the Chinese-made rockets had manifests written in English, so there's some truth to this.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Another article about the capture of the ammo dump:

quote:

Libyan Base Falls to a Rebel Ambush in the West
In darkness on Monday night and Tuesday morning, rebel soldiers from towns throughout the Nafusah Mountain region gathered to put the finishing touches on a bold mission: they planned to capture a sprawling military base controlled by government soldiers that was still stocked, they believed, with the kinds of weapons and ammunition that would help level their fight against the Libyan leader, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi.

A group of the fighters spent the night at a safe house, and as the sun rose on Tuesday here in the mountains of western Libya, hundreds of other fighters joined them in positions around the base. By midday, the rebels had routed 100 or so of Colonel Qaddafi’s soldiers who had been guarding the base and had left their potatoes, trash and crumpled green uniforms behind.

The soldiers also left a dubious bounty for the rebels, who carried off crates of outdated and aging ammunition and weapons parts, including components for heat-seeking antiaircraft missiles that security experts worry about falling into the hands of terrorists.

There was no sight of the rifles they desperately needed. But that could not diminish the glow of a hard-fought victory, and the fighters fired in celebration as they drove from the base in trucks packed with olive-colored crates.

As the rebel offensive has faltered in other parts of Libya, it seems to have picked up momentum in the west. The rebels have ambitious plans of consolidating control of the western mountain region and using it as a staging ground for an assault on the oil city of Zawiyah and, finally, the heavily fortified capital, Tripoli.

Colonel Qaddafi is holed up there, and on Tuesday the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, predicted that the colonel’s days as head of state were numbered and urged his associates to arrest him on the warrant issued by the court on Monday, news agencies reported.

The rebels are not banking on that turn of events, however. On Sunday, they made their farthest advance yet toward Tripoli, in a fight with Colonel Qaddafi’s soldiers in Bir al-Ghanem. The victory at the base also seemed to signal progress, in that the Qaddafi loyalists had kept control of the depot despite repeated bombings by NATO warplanes.

As hundreds of people rummaged through concrete ammunition stores on Tuesday, one rebel leader, buoyed by the victory, framed the attack as one more step in preparation for an inevitable advance. “We will go to Tripoli,” said the leader, Said al-Fasatwi, a revolutionary commander from the town of Jadu. “But we won’t leave anything behind.”

On Monday night, as fighters gathered at the headquarters of the military council in the town of Rogeban, Col. Mohamed Ethish and another officer reviewed a map of the battlefield surrounding the military base. Other men prepared their weapons, and a few fighters set out to scout the area.

Their offensive started about 6 a.m., when rebels in trucks with antiaircraft guns and rocket launchers took up positions around the base, a meandering collection of more than 70 concrete bunkers and buildings that stretched for miles. An hour later, the pro-Qaddafi soldiers were fighting back fiercely but aiming poorly. For hours, Grad rocket barrages and mortar rounds landed harmlessly in the desert scrub, sometimes far behind the rebel lines.

The rebels have boasted recently of a much-improved communications system that, coupled with the degradation of the Qaddafi forces’ communications, is giving them a major advantage on the battlefield. While there is no cellphone service here, the rebels were equipped with wireless radios, which did seem to give them some tactical advantage.

By 10:00 a.m., spectators watching with binoculars from nearby hills decided the battle was going well enough that they could move closer. Two hours later, the hills were filled with brown dust, as rebel vehicles drove in convoys toward the base, reacting to the news: Colonel Qaddafi’s soldiers had fled.

The rebels said only one of their fighters was dead, by rounds from an antiaircraft gun. One man returning from the front lines thought some of the loyalist soldiers had been killed, though he did not know how many. “I saw blood,” he said.

If the attack on the base was a showcase of rebel organization, its aftermath was a picture of the movement’s shortcomings. Apart from men directing traffic, there seemed to be no effort to secure the ammunition or weapons.

On a road outside the base, a truck hauled away cases of ammunition bearing stickers that showed two hands shaking above the words United States of America. A traffic jam clogged the narrow entrance. Young men hitched rides in pickup trucks, hoping to find a Kalashnikov or any other gun. There were none to be had, so the men hauled away anything they could find.

“I found a new gun,” said Murad Ruheibi, 33, holding up an emptied plastic water bottle with a snake he found in one of the warehouses. A teenager slung what appeared to be part of an antiaircraft weapon on his shoulder as others carted away dozens of similar tubes.

All but a handful of the concrete storage bunkers had been partly or totally destroyed by several waves of NATO airstrikes, rebels said. Carpets of metal stretched for hundreds of feet in front of the damaged buildings, consisting of destroyed ammunition and unexploded tank shells.

In undamaged bunkers, people ripped apart ammunition cases, striking them with crowbars or gun butts. At least one person died while handling the ammunition, according to people at the hospital in the nearby town of Zintan. By day’s end, there were signs that the rebel momentum might be fleeting: hundreds of people fled the base, after a rumor that the pro-Qaddafi soldiers were returning. But they did not.

A fighter from Jadu, who asked to be identified by his first name, Sufian, suggested than talk of an attack on Tripoli was premature. “We are going to have to organize ourselves out here first.”
I did notice on the AJE video there were a lot of those shoulder mounted surface to air missiles. Does anyone know if they would be effective against targets on the ground?

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008
Hey, downtown Cairo goon here checking in: As of last night and this morning, Tahrir is shut the hell down again with a pretty sizable protest group that's getting somewhat violent with Central Security, for which reason I got tear-gassed the poo poo out of a couple hours ago. There's been a perennial protest culture here in the months since Mubarak's ouster, although there's no one goal uniting it, rather a melange of interests and demands that manifest in demonstrations in Tahrir itself (large groups every Friday, to the extent that it's become kind of a social thing for young people) and in front of various ministries and government buildings. This latest wave was touched off by the arrest of various protesting family members of those killed in the earlier demonstrations (that is, the Shohadaa, or Martyrs, a word that's been painted over pretty much every place Mubarak's name was written in all of Egypt) and has taken on the character of a call for the end of the Supreme Council of Armed Forces government that's currently running poo poo. I'd be surprised if it snowballs too far (unless the police does something desperately loving stupid again, in which case it's anyone's game), but it's about the nastiest I've seen it since February. Gonna be an interesting fall.

Al Masry Al Youm (A liberal independent Egyptian daily) article here: http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/472561

Al Masry Al Youm posted:

Fifteen people were arrested as the relatives protested at the Balloon Theater in the Agouza district, after which the group decided to march on the Interior Ministry, close to Tahrir Square, where a further 20 were arrested.

As these later arrests were made, protesters clashed with security forces, and the confrontation spread to Qasr al-Aini Street, a main Cairo thoroughfare, and Mohamed Mahmoud Street, which borders the American University in Cairo’s downtown campus.

At least 25 civilians have been injured in the clashes so far.

Some protesters said they feared this was a continuation of the fallen regime's tactics. "It's the same thing happening again, nothing has changed," said Mohamed Abdel Raouf, a protester. Central Security Forces used tear gas extensively, as well as beatings and water cannons, during the early days of the 25 January revolution.

Protesters chanted, “The people want the fall of the general,” in reference to Field Marshall Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, the head of the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces.

Tahrir Square was the epicenter of Egypt’s 18-day uprising that toppled former President Hosni Mubarak. The last clashes between protesters and security forces occurred on 9 April when military police stormed the square, firing hundreds of gunshots and injuring several protesters.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

I was reading about that on Twitter last night, does it seem likely that it's a one off, or something that'll happen on a regular basis?

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008
It's hard to say--I'd be inclined to think that it won't directly spawn any further protests, but it's notable in that it's still going on, something like eight or nine hours in and over the course of an entire night. I'm on a bus to New Cairo (middle of the drat desert) right now, but I'll go take a look when I get back this afternoon and see what's up.
As of this morning, it's kind of the same kind of dynamic from the Jan-Feb protests, where people keep rushing police lines, getting tear gassed, then a thousands-strong group of people starts running away, then eventually they turn around and rush police lines again.
I admit I didn't get too far into the mass of people this morning. Police got close enough to killing me last time, I'm not real eager to give anyone another bite at that particular apple.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Do you think this will make the military council reconsider their position, or just making them more hardline?

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!
I was near the Balloon theatre in Giza when it all started last night, and it wasn't really clear who was doing what. What I saw was tens of people rocking the gates to the theater and trying to break in, while the police tried to arresta few. Wasn't really sure what was going on but from later reading, apparently several of the revolution martyr's families were either denied entry to the theatre during a ceremonial event dedicated to the martyrs of the revolution, because they didn't have tickets, or a couple of college girls aggravated them by saying something about Mubarak being innocent. In anycase, breaking into theatres or acting as if in a riot isn't a very good way to pay respect to the martyr's memories, but I don't have the full story.

Video of martyr families: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8o6eJGGG1E


In anycase, after police clashes by the theatre, apparently they escpaed/moved towards Tahrir square on the other side of the Nile where they went to protest while faced by scores of CSF security.

Video of clashes: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDafD1hI2X0

Not really sure how to feel about it. I agree that SCAF is kinda bumbling about, it began with the committee they appointed to set-up the framework of a new constituion, which turned out to be a very badly worded one and then with Mubarak still being held in a hospital in Sharm El Sheikh, trials getting constantly delayed and the like, but in all it seems like the people who initiated the riot at the theatre are the ones to blame.



quote:

Do you think this will make the military council reconsider their position, or just making them more hardline?

Which position? Mubarak's trial? Delaying elections? Constitution first?

Holy Cheese
Dec 6, 2006

Brown Moses posted:

Another article about the capture of the ammo dump:

I did notice on the AJE video there were a lot of those shoulder mounted surface to air missiles. Does anyone know if they would be effective against targets on the ground?

Surface to air usually explode as close to the target as they can, obviously it depends on the actual missile. Probably good at killing a group of people. I am no expert though, best wait for a proper answer.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Ham posted:

Which position? Mubarak's trial? Delaying elections? Constitution first?

Mainly the elections and consitution elements.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

I just wrote this massive post for D&D, so I might as well post it here, feel free to correct me:
Getting a clear picture of what's happening on the ground is difficult for a number of reasons. First of all it's very difficult to get an accurate picture of the strength of Gaddafi's forces in different areas, how well supplied they are, and their morale. The same thing goes for the rebels, although as there's better access by journalists to rebel controlled areas it's slightly easier to assess.

Then you have to look at the various sources of information about Gaddafi and rebel movements. There's plenty of pro-rebel Twitter accounts tweeting various information that varies from accurate to wild speculation presented as fact. As there's pratically no journalists outside rebel controlled areas or areas they are allowed to visit by Gaddafi's regime it's difficult to really know what's going on in some areas.

As you might have noticed I've been posting regular updates from various sources in this thread, so hopefully I can provide you with some answers.

First of all you need to think of the conflict as three seperate zones, this map will help you locate various towns:

The East
This includes pretty much everything east of Brega, including Ajdabiya, Benghazi, Bayda, Tobruk, and small oasis towns in the southeast of Libya, although there's very little information coming out of those oasis towns so it's really difficult to know the current situation.

Misrata
This Map shows you the area of Misrata under control of the rebels, and where most the fighting is occuring.

Nafusa Mountain
This map shows the situation in the Nafusa Mountains, home to Libya's ethnic Berber population.

There's also been unconfirmed reports of fighting in other isolated areas across the country, with various claims about who controls what, but with both sides making grand claims about who has done what it's really impossible to know who controls those areas.

So let's look at the current situation in each area:
The East
Currently everything is focused around Brega, where Gaddafi forces have anything between 1000-3000 troops, who have spent the past couple of months digging in and fortifying their positions while the rebels have established their owns positions on the road between Ajdabiya and Brega. The rebels in that area are in direct contact with NATO, and claims they've been told to hold their positions by NATO, but in the last week or so it seems like they are now making their move on Brega.
The rebels in that area are probably the best trained and equipped, having received various non-lethal supplies from NATO countries, including body armour, night vision equipment, and MRE's, and MILAN AT missiles from Qatar. They've also been trained by various NATO "advisors", and have very strong communication lines with NATO and the NTC. However, they lack actual fighting experience.

NATO puts out daily reports of activity in Libya, listing significant strikes in different areas. Looking back over the past couple of weeks it was very quiet apart from 7 Truck-Mounted Guns, 3 Tanks destroyed on June 16th. During this time it was said that NATO was dropping leaflets on Brega warning the troops stationed their that they would be attacked if they didn't retreat or surrender.
Then on June 24th their was a sudden increase in the amount of attacks by NATO:

quote:

24 JUNE: In the vicinity of Brega: 7 Command & Control Nodes, 1 Military Storage Facility, 14 Truck-Mounted Guns, 1 Tank, 2 Armoured Personnel Carriers, 3 Logistic Trucks, 7 Military Shelters.
25 JUNE: In the vicinity of Brega: 2 Tanks, 1 Logistic Truck, 6 Technical Vehicles, 3 Military Shelters, 4 Military Compounds,1 Antenna.
26 JUNE: In Brega: 3 Command and Control Nodes.
In the vicinity of Brega: 1 Tank.
In the vicinity of Ras Lanuf: 3 Technical Vehicles.
27 JUNE: In Brega: 1 Command and Control Node.
In the vicinity of Brega: 1 Tank.
In the vicinity of Ras Lanuf: 1 Tank.
There's been claims from the rebels that those strikes have killed and injured a significant number of Gaddafi's forces, at least 500. NATO claims that it is targeting the command structure, including generals and commanders in the area, probably to encourage surrender or retreat in the remaining troops.
In the last two days it's been claimed that the rebels have captured the town of Marada, on the main road south of Brega, but this is unverified by anyone outside of the rebels. This would be important as it cuts off one of the main routes that was being used to supply Brega.
Apart from that there's very little information coming from that area outside of NATO reports and various unverifiable rebel sources, so it's hard to know exactly what's going on.
This Wikipedia article has a decent timeline of events.

Misrata
The Misrata rebels fought a long drawn out battle to secure their city from Gaddafi forces, many of which are believed to have belonged to Gaddafi's elite Khamis Brigade. They used their knowledge of the city to surround groups of Gaddafi troops, cutting them off from supplies, and by blocking roads with trucks full of sand creating obstacles for any Gaddafi vehicles which tried to advance into the city. They now control the city and it's suburbs, and are focused on capturing Zliten in the west.
This map shows where most the fighting is taking place, and what is controlled by the rebels. Importantly the rebels now controlled the docks, which allows them to bring in trained troops, supplies and military equipment from Benghazi, as well as humanitarian supplies.

The Misrata rebels current focus is capturing Zliten, but several factors complicate this. First of all as Zliten is considered to be a key city in the defense of Tripoli it's currently filled to the brim with Gaddafi's best troops. It also seems that the people of Zliten don't want Misrata to liberate them, rather they want to be able to liberate Zilten themselves with support from Misrata, and the Misrata rebels claim they are training and equipping rebels who have escaped from Zliten and including them in various Misrata rebel units to provide some local knowledge. Then there's been a lot of complaints from the Misrata rebels that NATO forces haven't provided them with the air support they'd like to make significant progress. These are the NATO strikes reported since June 16th:

quote:

June 21st
In the vicinity of Zlitan: 1 Truck-Mounted Gun, 1 Military Camp comprising 6 Truck-Mounted Guns, 2 Military Trucks and 12 Shelters.
June 22nd
In the vicinity of Zlitan: 13 Armed Vehicules , 1 Armoured Personnel Carrier , 1 Rocket Launcher .
June 23rd
In the vicinity of Zlitan: 1 Artillery Piece.
June 24th
In the vicinity of Zlitan: 2 Artillery Pieces, 1 Mortar, 1 Truck-Mounted Gun.
It seems to have peaked a week ago, then died off again, although NATO are using their warships to shell Gaddafi positions, but there's no information on how effective that's been.
Again, over the last couple of days there's really not been much information coming from Misrata, and the rebels don't seem keen on having journalists near the frontlines, so measuring progress is difficult. There's various claims coming from Twitter this morning about "15 explosions over last half hour from #NATO strikes." and "FF(Tue morning)surrounded Ramadan Bsheer farm S of SuqAlThulatha.Captured many GFs,50sniper rifles&3Toyotas.FF unharmed" but none of this can be verified, and it's difficult to know how significant it is even if true.

Nafusa Mountains
Pretty much the wild card in the whole conflict. For months Nafusa was pretty much forgotten about, it was remote, and the only way to reach it was through Gaddafi controlled areas which international journalists couldn't hope to reach. Reports that came out of Nafusa described the usual Gaddafi formula of towns being surrounded, shelled, then occupied, but at a much slower rate than other areas due to the terrain and local cave systems civilians and rebels were using as bunkers to protect themselves from Gaddafi shelling. The local population were mainly ethnic Berbers, who had rebelled against Gaddafi early on.

Then the rebels in the area started to capture key locations, including the key Wazin border crossing with Tunisia, which allowed civilians to flee, and supplies to arrive to support the rebels. Some of these supplies included night vision equipment, satphones, and other expensive items supplied by foreign doners. Local knowledge of the Nafusa terrain and supplies smuggled using old smuggling routes helped the rebels greatly against Gaddafi forces, and one by one they secured the towns and cities in the Nafusa region, up until they had secured most of the mountain platau, as can be seen in this map..
One thing to understand about Nafusa is it creates kind of a natural fortress, so once the high ground is secured the only way up is through mountain roads that can be easily watched and defended.

It would have been reasonable to expect that once having captured the majority of the towns and cities the rebels in the area would struggle to make any more advances outside of familiar terrain, but three events suggest they have greater ambitions.

First of all, there was an aborted attack on Zawiya, on the coast to the north. Even though it failed it still demonstrated that they were able to cause problems for Gaddafi far outside of the Nafusa region.

Then over the past few days there's been reports of fighting near Bir al Ghanam, northeast of the mountains, and another front for Gaddafi to send his troops too. How this will turn out is difficult to say, but it's on a fairly important route, and would give them a base of operations closer to Zawiya and Azizyah.

Most significantly is their capture of the Al-Qaaa weapon depot yesterday. It's the largest weapon depot in the region, containing a vast amount of ammo and weapons, of various age and quality, but yesterday the Nafusa rebels managed to capture it, and immediately started emptying everything they could and sending it into the mountains. From footage I've seen they've definitly captured at least 2 T 55 tanks, one Shilka, a huge amount of surface to air shoulder missile launches (although who knows if they are effective against ground targets[/url], plus boxes and boxes of all sorts of ammo. This video report gives you an idea of the scale of looting:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDfpNbazfvs
Other reports say they captured a large number of unspecifed "military vehicles", and I've seen shots of various AA guns being driven off into the mountains.
This seems to suggest Gaddafi's forces in the area are fairly poor, with his best troops being used to defend Tripoli, as many people have said, and the rebels aren't complete idiots. What difference this will make to the rebels in Nafusa is hard to gauge, but they are certaintly going to be better equipped.

One other key event in Nafusa is the cutting off of the main oil pipelines to Zawiya refinery, which is currently believed to be a major source of petrol for the Gaddafi regime. It's the only oil pipeline supply oil in the Gaddafi controlled west of the country, and with ports in Libya being blockaded by NATO the only source of petrol is tankers smuggling fuel in from different countries, which is no where near enough to supply the army with fuel. Even now there's days long queues for civilian vehicles at petrol stations, so once any reserves run out Gaddafi's going to find himself with lots of vehicles that can't go anywhere. With the Nafusa rebels attacking various locations it he might find it difficult to fight battles on so many different fronts.

Probably the most important location to capture next is Garyan, on the eastern end of the Nafusa mountains. It's currently heavily occupied by Gaddafi forces, and seems to be the focus of NATO aircraft, with various reports of bombings. Capturing it would be significant as one of the major roads to Tripoli would be cut off, and with Misrata under rebel control it would mean only one major road through Bani Walid would be control by Gaddafi's forces. If the Nafusa rebels then tried to capture the towns west of Tripoli along the coast any Gaddafi reinforcements would either have to come directly from Tripoli, or have a very long journey from anywhere else, which might be difficult if their fuel supply is limited.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

Ham posted:


Not really sure how to feel about it. I agree that SCAF is kinda bumbling about, it began with the committee they appointed to set-up the framework of a new constituion, which turned out to be a very badly worded one and then with Mubarak still being held in a hospital in Sharm El Sheikh, trials getting constantly delayed and the like, but in all it seems like the people who initiated the riot at the theatre are the ones to blame.


Agreed. The SCAF is getting pulled in a bunch of different directions at once and have definitely had a mixed record during the transitional period. The Egyptian military's such a weird animal that it's hard to say for sure what they even want to happen with all this.
I doubt any real policy shifts are likely to follow from this: the constitutional vote's a done deal; I get the impression they're moving the trials as fast as they can--by all accounts, Mubarak is in extremely poor health at the moment--and offhand I can't think of anything else they could do to placate this particular vein of anger.

Also of interest: apparently the SCAF is basically telling the IMF to gently caress off, which is one of the first indicators of what kind of macroeconomic policy slate they've got in mind.

E: @Ham, how'd you happen to be in that particular part of Giza last night?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Libya Blogs June 29th
AJE Libya
AJE Yemen
AJE Syria
LibyaFeb17
Feb17.info

Gaza

quote:

Sheikh Raed Salah, a leading Palestinian activist, has been detained in London amid reports that he is banned from the UK, PA reports.

quote:

Salah, the leader of the Islamic Movement in Israel, was detained on Tuesday night by police, the Palestine Solidarity Campaign (PSC) said.

Sarah Colborne, PSC director, insisted that Salah was the leader of a legitimate political organisation. He rejected all forms of racism, including anti-semitism, she said.

Syria

quote:

Syria's ambassador to Britain has been called into the Foreign Office and warned about allegations that a diplomat at the embassy has been intimidating Syrians living in the UK. "Any such activity would amount to a clear breach of acceptable behaviour," Christian Turner, the Foreign Office's Middle East director told the envoy. "If such claims were substantiated, the Foreign Office would respond swiftly and appropriately."

Leading Syrian opposition dissident Ammar Abdulhamid has criticised British government minister Brooks Newmark for visiting Bashar al-Assad.

quote:

As part of the Assad PR campaign, Congressman Dennis Kucinich and British MP Brooks Newmark paid a visit to Syria over the weekend and met with Bashar Al-Assad in a step that ended up receiving the usual Assad Baathist treatment, transforming it into an endorsement of Assad-planned reforms and of Assad as a person.

Egypt

quote:

Our Egypt correspondent Jack Shenker was on the spot to witness police showering the square with tear gas canisters and fire bullets into the air.

quote:

The Guardian witnessed successive volleys of tear gas launched into the square and surrounding streets by government forces, including towards areas where ambulances had congregated to treat the wounded. Injured protesters, mostly with head wounds and gas inhalation, were carried to safety on the shoulders of fellow demonstrators.

"Mubarak was nothing – this is the revolution," said one man caught by tear gas.
Eyewitnesses report continuing clashes this morning, according to Egypt's Daily News.

Some of the Twitter accounts to follow include: @lilianwagdy, @nellyali, @3arabawy, and @LeilZahra

The New York Times rounds up the way the clashes were streamed live on video and covered by Twitter users in the square.

NPR's Andy Carvin (@acarvin) was also in Cairo to tweet the story.

Later today another potentially explosive encounter will occur in Cairo at football derby match between Ahly and Zamalek. Jack previews the game:

quote:

Five months on from the uprising that toppled Egypt's dictatorship, Zamalek and Ahly will clash in one of the world's most hotly contested sporting derbies, commanding a television audience of 40 million in Egypt alone. Parts of the capital will be put into lockdown as thousands of armed police and army soldiers attempt to keep opposing supporters apart.

"It's not just a game," says Hassan Almstkawy, a columnist for Al Ahram newspaper and the country's premier sporting pundit. "Apart from war, only two things can bring millions and millions of people onto the streets: revolution and football. Now we have both at the same time."

quote:

The Egyptian daily Al-Masry Al-Youm has this footage of clashes in Tahrir Square.
AP reports:

quote:

The military government has issued a statement on its Facebook page saying the clashes were designed to "destabilise the country" and drive a wedge between the groups behind the uprising and the security forces. It called on Egyptians not to join the protests.
AP said many of the protesters are believed to be relatives of some 850 people killed during the uprising that ousted Mubarak, and are frustrated over what they perceive as the slow pace of prosecution of police officers believed to be responsible for the deaths.

On Sunday the an Egyptian police officer was sentenced to death in absentia for killing protesters during the uprising. Mohamed Ibrahim Abdul Monem remains at large, the LA Times reports.

quote:

Egyptian activist Gigi Ibrahim claims she filmed this footage of police appearing to use Taser-type guns against protesters during the clashes in Cairo last night

In her account of the events she says some of families whose relatives were killed in the uprising in January and February tried enter a theatre but were denied access. That's when the violence started.

quote:

So four supporters jumped the fence, and that's when the clashes started. Immediately, the police showed up and started firing tear gas and attacking supporters & families of martyrs from Maspero with electric shocks shown in the video above.

When we got to Ministry of Information clashes had already occurred between protesters and CSF officers with an exchange of rocks throwing... As things were dying down, all of the sudden, I saw the CSF officers marching with sticks in the air towards Tahrir on Mohamed Mahmoud St. The protesters followed them not understanding whom are they running after. I kept asking what is going on? People who were there before me, told me that "they are running after thugs who came and threw rocks at the officers in 2 trucks." Hmmmm these must have been the same trucks I saw in Tahrir earlier, who are these people? unknown.

We, protesters, ran towards Tahrir, and clashes between us and them, pigs, never stopped since until couple of hours ago. Many were injured... The most disgusting part was the cursing and the words that the CSF pigs were yelling at us while shooting us with tear gas and rock. They were saying, "we will kill you! you deserve death ya awsaakh!" I threw rocks for the first time from the front of the line. I was not afraid.

quote:

Gigi Ibrahim who witnessed and filmed the clashes in Cairo last night said Egyptians are angry at the lack of reform since the revolution.

quote:

The people who started this revolution.. they wanted change, the wanted freedom, they wanted social equality, they wanted justice and none of this has been achieved ... We are in a much worse position now than we ever were in before. SCAF [the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces] is using the media as a mouthpiece to gain legitimacy.
In a Skype interview she said protesters were beaten by the "same faces" who put down the uprising earlier this year.

She denied that the violence was caused by troublemakers. "Obviously they [the government] are going to blame it on anybody. The game hasn't changed. Any act of protesting... they have attacked us and labelled the protesters counter revolutionaries."

Gigi Ibrahim on the clashes in Cairo from matthew weaver on Vimeo.

quote:

Our picture desk has put together a gallery of some dramatic images from the latest violence in Cairo.

Libya

quote:

The LA Times reports how Libyan rebels seized one of Gaddafi's arms depots near Zintan.

quote:

Some analysts on Arab television networks described the Ghaaa military base as the largest arms depot in Africa. Many of the weapons date back decades, some to 1972. But they were stored meticulously inside dozens of huge hangar-like concrete bunkers covered with dirt.

Many of them had already been struck in Nato bombing. But few were so badly damaged that enthusiastic rebels couldn't gleefully salvage ammunition.

quote:

Britain is calling for a "politically inclusive settlement" in post-Gaddafi Libya that will take heed of the mistakes made in Iraq, writes Ian Black. A detailed "stabilisation document", overseen by the Department for International Development, has been submitted to the Benghazi-based Libyan opposition and sets out priorities after a ceasefire between the regime and rebels.

Andrew Mitchell, the international development secretary, said:

quote:

The report has learned the lesson of Iraq about the importance of using to the maximum possible extent existing structures. One of the first things that should happen once Tripoli falls is that someone should get on the phone to the former Tripoli chief of police and tell him he has got a job and he needs to secure the safety and security of the people of Tripoli. Of course, at that stage the sanctions on assets will be unfrozen and money will be able to flow much more easily than it is at the moment so as well as having a job he might actually get paid.

quote:

A U.S. Senate panel on Tuesday approved a resolution formally authorizing continued U.S. participation in the NATO-led military intervention in Libya but banning the introduction of U.S. troops on the ground there. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted 14-5 to approve the measure offered by Senator John Kerry, a Democrat, and John McCain, a Republican, sending it to the full Senate, where it faces an uncertain future.

quote:

The ICC prosecutor said on Tuesday that Gaddafi could fall within 2-3 months. “It is a matter of time … Gaddafi will face charges,” Moreno-Ocampo told reporters in The Hague, where the warrants were approved for Gaddafi, his son Saif al-Islam and Libyan intelligence chief Abdullah al-Senussi. The NTC has rejected both direct and indirect talks with Gaddafi. “I don’t think there is any place for direct or indirect contact with Gaddafi,” Mahmoud Shammam, a spokesman for the NTC said after meetings with French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

quote:

Bulgaria and Croatia have become the 19th and 20th sovereign nations to have recognized formally the Libyan rebels’ National Transitional Council in Benghazi as the legitimate representative of the Libyan nation in international affairs.

quote:

France has begun parachuting arms shipments to Berber rebels fighting Libyan leader Gaddafi's forces in the highlands south of Tripoli, the French daily Le Figaro reported on Wednesday.

According to the paper, which said it had seen a secret intelligence memo and talked to well-placed officials, the air drops are designed to help rebel fighters encircle Tripoli and encourage a popular revolt in the city itself.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Bit more from the Guardian on Egypt:

quote:

Following last night's violence in Tahrir Square and the ongoing street clashes this morning, the Egyptian Football Association (EFA) has announced it is 'indefinitely postponing' tonight's crunch match between Cairo footballing giants Ahly and Zamalek, writes Jack Shenker.

quote:

The game had been set to be a championship-decider and was already a major security concern for the authorities. The protests over the past twelve hours - in which Zamalek 'ultra' fans were among those battling against the police - have convinced the authorities to call it off. The EFA is itself at the centre of revolutionary subversion at the moment.

Jack explored the Ahly-Zamalek rivalry and how Egyptian football might be transformed in post-Mubarak Egypt, in this article.

J33uk
Oct 24, 2005
Oh man, I was in Zamalek during an Ahly-Zamalek game and the atmosphere is pretty nuts. Not that people getting excited about football related matters is unheard of in Zamalek, as the poor Algerian embassy well knows.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp
I honestly don't understand the recent protests in Egypt. Post revolution we have seen the referendum take place, dates set for elections, and former regime members in court. I get the impression that the people kicking up a fuss are pissed that setting up a new country takes time. :s

quote:

Oh man, I was in Zamalek during an Ahly-Zamalek game and the atmosphere is pretty nuts. Not that people getting excited about football related matters is unheard of in Zamalek, as the poor Algerian embassy well knows.
Hell I remember that even in Qatar where I was living at the time there was a lot of tension between the Algerian and Egyptian workers on my compound during the Algeria/Egypt qualifier games. They make the British football hooligans seem well mannered, respectful fans.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Libya
The BBC has a picture gallery of the worlds most dangerous museum and street art in Misrata.

quote:

France airdrops arms to Libya rebels: Report
France has begun parachuting arms shipments to Berber rebels fighting Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's forces in the highlands south of Tripoli, the French daily Le Figaro reported on Wednesday.

According to the paper, which said it had seen a secret intelligence memo and talked to well-placed officials, the air drops are designed to help rebel fighters encircle Tripoli and encourage a popular revolt in the city itself.

"If the rebels can get to the outskirts of Tripoli, the capital will take the chance to rise against Gaddafi," said an official quoted in the report.

"The regime's mercenaries are no longer getting paid and are scarcely getting fed. There's a severe fuel shortage, the population has had enough."

French officials could not immediately confirm or deny the report.

According to Le Figaro, the French arms shipments are being dropped from planes in the Djebel Nafusa region, where Berber tribes have risen to join the revolt against Gaddafi's rule and seized several provincial towns.

The crates hold assault rifles, machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, it said, and also European-made Milan anti-tank missiles, a powerful addition to the rebel arsenal that can destroy a tank or a bunker.

France has taken a leading role in organising international support for the uprising against Gaddafi's four-decade old rule, and French and British jets are spearheading a NATO-led air campaign targeting his forces.

Rebel forces are based in Benghazi in the east of the country, and hold a besieged enclave supplied by sea in the western coastal town of Misrata, but have been unable to mount a convincing advance on the capital.

Today's bit Twitter rumour is rebels have captured the town of Sheghuda, which can be seen just north of Bir al Ghanam on this map.
Fighting is still reported to be on going ni Bir al Ghanam, and it wouldn't be suprising if the rebels have just bypassed it to capture Sheghuda. By the looks of it it's a small town surrounded by what looks like farms, and there's lots of roads in the area so I don't think it would be effective at blocking any Gaddafi advances.

Actually it's Al-Shegiga which is 25km north northwest of Mizdah, according to people in Twitter, I can't find it on a map. Fighting is still reported in Bir al Ghanam, maybe they are trying to cut of the routes to the north and south of Gheyran?
[edit]If the rebels have reached Al-Shegiga maybe they are heading to Mizdah and the nearby army base/depot that's been bombed by NATO several times? It'll be interesting to see what forces are defending Mizdah, especially if Gaddafi expected the rebels to capture Gheyran first.
Bahrain

quote:

A military court in Bahrain has delayed the appeal of 21 activist given long sentences last week, as readers have noted below the line.

AP reports:

quote:

The postponement in the high-profile case comes just three days before Bahrain's Sunni rulers plan to open reconciliation talks with the opposition they crushed during a wave of Shiite-led demonstrations demanding greater freedoms earlier this year.

The appeals hearing is now set for September 11.

Zainab al-Khawaja, aka @angryarabiya, whose father Abdulhadi al-Khawaja is one of eight activist given a life sentence, tweeted her frustration at the delay.

quote:

The appeal of my father & 20 other activists has been postponed to September, they usually adjourn for few days, not months!

Egypt

quote:

There's a tense stand off between thousands of protesters and the central security forces on a street leading off Cairo's Tahrir Square, Jack Shenker reports from the scene.

quote:

Right now... down Mohamed Mahmoud Street teargas is still very heavy in the air. The entire neighbourhood is littered with rocks and debris from the clashes...

Many Egyptians are worried about the progress of the revolution. They fear that the ruling generals are hijacking the spirit of Tahrir... It is very febrile atmosphere ... People are vowing not to leave Tahrir. They are saying this is the second revolution, or the real revolution or the ongoing revolution.

The real question is, is the army in control of the police force, did it sanction last night's action? If so why did it do that, what is it trying to tell the people?

Jack says there are two competing narratives about how the violence began.

The government says it was started when groups of thugs tried to infiltrate a ceremony to mark the death of those killed in the revolution and then went on to attack the Interior ministry. Protesters on the ground tell a very different story, Jack says.


quote:

They say legitimate families of those killed during the revolution were denied access by the police to commemoration of the martyrs and when they began protesting, the police attacked them.

Jack witnessed the security services firing teargas indiscriminately at protesters and ambulances treating the injured. But a witness told him that at one point residents tried to protect the interior ministry from thugs.

quote:

Egyptian presidential candidate Mohamed ElBaradei has weighed-in on Twitter to claim that "sluggishness, opaqueness and confusion" have eroded the government's credibility.
Live blog: Twitter

He called for transparency about what happened last with a time line of events.

quote:

Sluggishness, opaqueness & confusion eroding credibility. Clear vision, transparency, time line & genuine participation urgently required.
Tweeting later in Arabic he called on the government to clarify what happened and how it started, and take "necessary measures to end it"

quote:

The Egyptian health ministry said that up to 600 people have been injured in the ongoing clashes between protesters and police in central Cairo, and that nine have been arrested, Jack Shenker reports.

quote:

Right now the violence seems to have subsided somewhat, although tear gas is still heavy in the air and the centre of Mohamed Mahmoud street remains a debris-strewn no-man's land.

I've been speaking to more residents of the area who say that as the unrest began last night, they were asked by the central security forces (CSF) to help defend the Interior Ministry from 'thugs'.

About 50-100 of them did so and started throwing rocks at those facing off with the police, under the belief that the main street was being attacked by criminals intent on smashing up cars and shops. But when they saw the CSF police launching tear gas into Tahrir Square at about 11pm, the local residents fell back and stopped assisting the government forces.

"At the beginning this was a very small problem and we genuinely thought the CSF needed our help - they told us that if the thugs saw ordinary people standing side by side with the police, they would be scared off and calm would be restored," one man told me.

"But the CSF then made the situation much worse by deliberately firing into the crowds, which brought lots of peaceful protesters on to the scene and it turned into a big battle. I don't know why the CSF did that but it's their fault - it felt like they wanted to make trouble."

It's worth pointing out that the terms 'thugs', 'criminals' and 'counter-revolutionaries' are regularly deployed by the ruling army generals and government security forces to dismiss anyone deemed to be 'causing trouble' in this post-Mubarak transition period - including workers fighting for better pay, women struggling for equal rights, and slum-dwellers demanding better accommodation.

Whether or not there really were criminal civilian elements smashing up cars last night, it seems clear that the police wanted to put on a show of force in the streets - and as a result they now have now provoked a counter show of force from many ordinary people, who are determined to prove that Egypt's revolution is very much unfinished.

quote:

The Cairo derby between Ahly and Zamalek is back on, after the Ministry of Interior appeared to over rule the Egyptian Football Association.

Al-Masry Al-Youm reports:

quote:

Egypt's security authorities have declared that a soccer game between the country's leading teams, Ahly and Zamalek, will be played as scheduled despite renewed unrest Tuesday and Wednesday in Tahrir Square.

Clashes broke out on Tuesday night between Central Security forces and protesters, including some of the families of those killed during protests earlier this year.

The Ministry of Interior released a statement appealing to football fans and sports authorities to cooperate with the ministry in securing a safe game.

Saudi Arabia

quote:

At least five Saudi women have been arrested after defying the kingdom's ban on women drivers, an activist told AP.

quote:

For the past two weeks Saudi women have been driving through the capital, Riyadh, and other cities in a challenge to the ban.

Eman al-Nafjan, a Saudi-based rights activist, said that police detained five women on Tuesday as they drove in Jeddah on the Red Sea coast. There was no new information on the status of the detainees.

In her latest blogpost Nafjan wrote:

quote:

As one Saudi woman who desperately needs to drive told me: "I will put up with importing a driver and a salary I can't afford to pay, because otherwise my family would estrange me and people would drag my name in the mud."

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 14:14 on Jun 29, 2011

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008
Good god I wish people would stop paying attention to Gigi Ibrahim. Homegirl is seriously dumb as a rock and--I poo poo ye not--only got excited about revolutionary politics because she was taking a class on revolutionary politics. Although it is a testament to the disingenuousness of the American press's (It's a purely ideological struggle by brave secularist liberals who want democracy! It had nothing at all to do with economic concerns re: skyrocketing food prices and not having any drat jobs) frame of the Egyptian uprising that they made a frontwoman out of an AUC aristocrat whose family is insanely rich because of the Mubarak kleptocracy.

By all accounts people are still filtering into Tahrir and something like 700 people have been injured, but miraculously there's no reported fatalities as of yet. Headed back to the area in a bit, I'll keep y'all posted as I'm able.

If I get back and my apartment's on fire I swear I am going to flip a poo poo. :argh:

Thomase
Mar 18, 2009
Lets not rule out this female driver ban completely as a bad thing.

:smug:

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

I've actually managed to locate the place it's claimed the Nafusa rebels have captured, Al-Shaqiqa. I wonder if they've got control of Warmis to the west. It's in an interesting postions, it looks like the terrain to the east and southeast would make it difficult to attack from anywhere but the road leading eastwards to the road to Mizdah.

Assuming everything that's claimed is true then the Nasfusa front is getting wider and wider, probably stretching Gaddafi's forces in the area even further.

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!

Brown Moses posted:

Mainly the elections and consitution elements.

I doubt it'll change their position on anything, but you have to remember that these struggles are actually for another struggle: islamists vs. secularists/liberals/socialists/capitalists.

Most of the people who attack elections before constitution are the non-islamists, whatever their political orientation. They feel like the government is handing power to the islamists on a platter. Chief among these groups are the April 6 Youth, who helped organize the revolt in Mahalla Al-Kubra several years ago, and the revolution this year. This also harkens back to the "2nd Friday of Rage" some weeks ago, when secular political factions protested in Tahrir about the "apparent" agreement between SCAF and the Muslim Brotherhood. In fact it got so heated the MB called all of the protestors traitors who didn't deserve to be Egyptian.

This, what's going on right now, is a mixture of 2 viewpoints: Those who feel that SCAF is being too lenient on former regime personell, and those who feel SCAF is handing Egypt to islamists on a platter. But there's a significant problem here, for most Egyptians it's economy before democracy, and Islam before equality. This means that the more groups like April 6 call for protests, the more they're ostracized out of a mainstream that increasingly sees them as the main blocking force to economic prosperity, or the pereceived prosperity they saw with Mubarak compared to post-revolution with the economy going down for Jan-May.

Islamists profit in several ways here. As they're seen not to participate in these protests, but even criticize them, most of the already Islamic-leaning population will sympathize with them and with their stated cause for not participating: "restoring security and economic prosperity".

El Anansi posted:

E: @Ham, how'd you happen to be in that particular part of Giza last night?

I live in Mohandessin, was coming back from ASU in Abbasia and took the 15th May bridge.

El Anansi posted:

Good god I wish people would stop paying attention to Gigi Ibrahim. Homegirl is seriously dumb as a rock and--I poo poo ye not--only got excited about revolutionary politics because she was taking a class on revolutionary politics. Although it is a testament to the disingenuousness of the American press's (It's a purely ideological struggle by brave secularist liberals who want democracy! It had nothing at all to do with economic concerns re: skyrocketing food prices and not having any drat jobs) frame of the Egyptian uprising that they made a frontwoman out of an AUC aristocrat whose family is insanely rich because of the Mubarak kleptocracy.

Gigi is kind of a dolt: "Some thugs wet and threw rocks at cops, so the cops chased them and then we joined the thugs in throwing rocks at the pigs in Tahrir!!"

Other than that, you have to realize that it's not just the western media that puts that face on the revolution. The Egyptian media has been doing it since Feb. 11, where they labelled it primarily as a middle class revolution for freedom, democracy and social equity. In fact, almost all the "martyr montages" people see are of middle class dudes/girls who died in the revolution. It's just a nicer face, for both the Egyptian middle class and up and the western media than basically saying: "Some poor people in Egypt protested for economy and food."

One final point about this, the revolution was about many things. Some will tell you it's just about economy and food for the majority of poor people, but that's wrong. Most of Egypt's middle and upper-middle class participated, and when I was with friends it was because of police brutality, civil rights and economic reform aimed at the poor. It wasn't about our own economical gain.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

Ham posted:

One final point about this, the revolution was about many things. Some will tell you it's just about economy and food for the majority of poor people, but that's wrong. Most of Egypt's middle and upper-middle class participated, and when I was with friends it was because of police brutality, civil rights and economic reform aimed at the poor. It wasn't about our own economical gain.

Oh, no argument there, I spent enough time at Tahrir in Jan/Feb to appreciate that you had people there from pretty much every social group imaginable, and that they all had different axes to grind w/the Mubarak government. I just always rankle at the Disneyfied version sold to Westerners that either marginalizes or entirely omits the participation of leftists, unions, and religious conservatives.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Thanks for that, it's hard to really know what people think in Egypt when 99% of reports come via the Guardian Live Blogs. Speaking of which, here's some updates:
Egypt

quote:

Ursula Lindsey explores the causes of the continuing unrest in Egypt on a smart post on the Arabist about the accountability of the police.

quote:

This violence is the inevitable result of the lack of transparency and of momentum in the judicial proceedings against former regime figures and especially the police...

Everyday I read and hear stories about police officers who are on trial (or should be) going back to work at their old posts; and about families being bribed or threatened ("We'll arrest your other son on drug charges") if they don't drop their cases...

While justice drags out, the Ministry of Interior is in complete denial about the extent of its culture of abuse and the need for total reform...

The uprising started because people were tired of being brutalized and humiliated. For me, justice for the martyrs, the injured and their families is the test of whether something has really changed...

Which is why it is so important that some policemen at least be judged, publicly, for what they've done. The families of the dead and injured and the activist community (who in many cases come from quite different backgrounds) have come fully together in calling for justice. I don't think Egyptians are going to be satisfied with anything less.

I'm wondering if you two would agree with the above analysis?

Libya
NATO update

quote:

Sorties conducted 28 JUNE: 148
Strike sorties conducted 28 JUNE: 58

Key Hits
28 JUNE:
In Brega: 2 Command and Control Nodes , 1 Command and Control Facility , 1 Armored Vehicle , 1 Artillery piece , 12 Armed Vehicles , 5 Armed Pick-Up Trucks , 3 Trucks , 3 Military Hangars.
In the vicinity of Zlitan: 1 Multiple Rocket Launcher , 1 Mortar , 1 Armed Vehicle , 1 Command and Control Facility.
In the vicinity of Tripoli: 1 Anti Aircraft Missile Launcher , 2 Radars.
In Gharyan: 1 Military Compound.

Dear god, it actually seems like NATO has stopped focusing on Tripoli and are actually bombing places where the rebels are figthing Gaddafi forces! It's a loving miracle. That's another pretty significant series of strikes in Brega, especially after the last 4 days of bombing:

quote:

24 JUNE: In the vicinity of Brega: 7 Command & Control Nodes, 1 Military Storage Facility, 14 Truck-Mounted Guns, 1 Tank, 2 Armoured Personnel Carriers, 3 Logistic Trucks, 7 Military Shelters.
25 JUNE: In the vicinity of Brega: 2 Tanks, 1 Logistic Truck, 6 Technical Vehicles, 3 Military Shelters, 4 Military Compounds,1 Antenna.
26 JUNE: In Brega: 3 Command and Control Nodes.
In the vicinity of Brega: 1 Tank.
In the vicinity of Ras Lanuf: 3 Technical Vehicles.
27 JUNE: In Brega: 1 Command and Control Node.
In the vicinity of Brega: 1 Tank.
In the vicinity of Ras Lanuf: 1 Tank.

There were reports from Twitter yesterday NATO were attacking "one of the three barracks" in Gharyan, hopefully they'll hit the other two soon.

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!
Over 1100 wounded due to the events of the riot in Cairo so far.

And what the gently caress is going on here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMrMDNOFgQ0

farraday
Jan 10, 2007

Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Ham posted:

Over 1100 wounded due to the events of the riot in Cairo so far.

And what the gently caress is going on here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMrMDNOFgQ0

You know, that's actually really funny in a bleak sort of way.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Ham posted:

Over 1100 wounded due to the events of the riot in Cairo so far.

And what the gently caress is going on here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMrMDNOFgQ0

Ah, that's the Egpytian police I remember.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
I bet that guy has another job driving one of those golf-ball-pickerupers on a driving range.

Ace Oliveira
Dec 27, 2009

"I wonder if there is beer on the sun."

Ham posted:

Over 1100 wounded due to the events of the riot in Cairo so far.

And what the gently caress is going on here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMrMDNOFgQ0

Is that cop doing a dance with a machete?

Also, is there any videos from the Gaddafi Troops side like the one Young Freud posted a few pages back? I'm interested in how different they are to the rebels, militarily.

shotgunbadger
Nov 18, 2008

WEEK 4 - RETIRED

Ace Oliveira posted:

Is that cop doing a dance with a machete?

Also, is there any videos from the Gaddafi Troops side like the one Young Freud posted a few pages back? I'm interested in how different they are to the rebels, militarily.

I think it's his club.

Is that some kinda like, signaling motion thing he's going through or what, did he just want to show the protesters that they have force AND rhythm on their side?

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farraday
Jan 10, 2007

Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

shotgunbadger posted:

I think it's his club.

Is that some kinda like, signaling motion thing he's going through or what, did he just want to show the protesters that they have force AND rhythm on their side?

I'm pretty sure it is just taunting.

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