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Mr. Sunshine
May 15, 2008

This is a scrunt that has been in space too long and become a Lunt (Long Scrunt)

Fun Shoe

Cable Guy posted:

Does this same dichotomy exist in Syria...? Is there that divide between the old and the new?

I know very little of the Syrian army, but I'm fairly sure no great numbers of their young officers have US training. If it was indeed a split between the Soviet-trained old guard and the US-trained young guard in Egypt, it is understandable that the young guard would more readily side with the people. For all the flak the US gets for disregarding civilian casualties and ignoring "hearts and minds", they're still lighyears beyond the Soviet doctrines of "murder anyone who is in any way remotely connected to someone who opposes us".

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Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

It's been quiet today, here's a round up of events from the Guardian:

quote:

Syria
Reports of deaths in Hama put the toll at six. Video footage purported to be from the city today showed fleeing protesters being shot at. The Local Coordination Committee of Syria, which organises and reports on protests, claimed the "whole city has gone into a state of open disobedience". According to al-Jazeera, a Syrian army colonel has defected.

Libya
Reports claimed Muammar Gaddafi was willing to give up power in exchange for security guarantees, and that he wanted his son Saif al-Islam Gaddafi to be permitted to run in elections if he steps down. The rebels denied that they were willing to allow Gaddafi to remain in the country after the civil war. Reuters reported that at least five rebels were killed when pro-Gaddafi forces shelled positions west of Misrata.

Gaza
The American captain of one of the ships in the "Freedom Flotilla" that intended to sail to Gaza has been released following his arrest at the weekend .

Egypt
Three Mubarak-era ministers were acquitted on corruption charges and a fourth found guilty in absentia. Egypt's ruling military council has not yet decided whether to delay elections – as some political groups want in order to prevent the well-organised Muslim Brotherhood winning a big victory – or not, according to reports.

Yemen
Reports claim Ali Abdullah Saleh, the injured president currently being treated in Saudi Arabia, can barely speak as a result of smoke inhalation and cannot stand because of a leg injury.

Also, from Morocco

quote:

Democracy campaigners in Morocco claim Friday's referendum, in which 98% voted in favour of limited constitutional changes, was rigged.

Mountazar Drissi told the BBC that the result was "unbelievable", after numerous cases of multiple voting, and people being bussed in from the countryside to vote in cities.

As Global Voices notes videos have emerged which appear to show irregularities in way the poll was conducted. One shows officials allegedly tampering with a ballot box, another shows a banner above a polling station urging votes to back the new constitution, in violation of electoral law.

Protesters took to the streets on Sunday objecting to the limited nature of the changes.

Despite the concerns of pro-democracy campaigners foreign secretary William Hague has just welcomed the referendum result.

In a statement he said:

quote:

I welcome the preliminary outcome of the referendum. These important reforms, including commitments to increasing the power of parliament, advancing gender equality and protecting minority rights, will herald a new era for the Kingdom of Morocco. I look forward to their implementation and the parliamentary elections later this year.

Slantedfloors
Apr 29, 2008

Wait, What?
Why the hell do dictators fake elections/referendums, and then give themselves or their position 98% of the vote? What the gently caress? Do they not understand that if they fake only a close victory, people might actually believe them?

eSports Chaebol
Feb 22, 2005

Yeah, actually, gamers in the house forever,

Slantedfloors posted:

Why the hell do dictators fake elections/referendums, and then give themselves or their position 98% of the vote? What the gently caress? Do they not understand that if they fake only a close victory, people might actually believe them?

Lukashenko claimed to have rigged the vote in Belarus to give himself a lower total to appease Western observers :q:

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Some actual news from Paul Danahar of the BBC in Misrata. He's saying the rebels have linked the southern and eastern fronts, and advanced 7km, although if that's part of the linking up it's not made clear, apparently the rebels are being pretty cagey about giving away too much info. He's noted there's alot of rebel injuries from small arms fire, not rockets, which suggests they were injured in a push forwards, not from being shelled in their defensive positions. He's also said the rebels say they plan to hold their newly gained positions no matter what, so lets hope NATO doesn't bomb them.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 18:43 on Jul 5, 2011

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Brown Moses posted:

He's also said the rebels say they plan to hold their newly gained positions no matter what, so lets hope NATO doesn't bomb them.

There's a reason why when NATO say 'stay behind the loving line', you're supposed to stay behind the loving line. :s

farraday
Jan 10, 2007

Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.
Not likely, based on where the air strikes have been unless they're crowding close to a major city its unlikely they'll be targeted.
That sort of thing is much more of a concern when you're moving basically linearly along coastal roads, as between Ajdabiya and Brega or Misruata and Zlitan.

Killer robot
Sep 6, 2010

I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!
Pillbug

Slantedfloors posted:

Why the hell do dictators fake elections/referendums, and then give themselves or their position 98% of the vote? What the gently caress? Do they not understand that if they fake only a close victory, people might actually believe them?

I've wondered this too. Maybe since if you make it close you have to admit you have a lot of actual opposition, rather than a handful of malcontents and foreign-owned puppet groups. Or maybe it's just the swelling of the ego.

Namarrgon
Dec 23, 2008

Congratulations on not getting fit in 2011!

Killer robot posted:

I've wondered this too. Maybe since if you make it close you have to admit you have a lot of actual opposition, rather than a handful of malcontents and foreign-owned puppet groups. Or maybe it's just the swelling of the ego.

I also think it is a display of power; "yeah we totally rigged this you know it we know it now what you gonna do about it? :smug" Usually a solid move for an already-in-perpetual-power overlord, but in the latest situation not the smartest move.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Great article about the Gaddafi's regime awful attempts at convincing journalists NATO are evil baby killers

quote:

Three days of farce in Gaddafi's Libya
More than 700km (435 miles) is a long way to go on a maybe.

But, up until this week, none of the foreign journalists locked up in our five-star gilded cage in Tripoli had been offered a chance to see Col Muammar Gaddafi's loyal fighters up close on the front lines.

So it was that my cameraman and I found ourselves piling aboard a white minibus and heading out into the sweltering heat of the Libyan desert.

Libya is an enormous land, and virtually empty. It took most of one day, and a good chunk of the next, to get there. For hour after hour we saw nothing but sand, scrub and the occasional group of scraggy camels.

But we all remained excited by the prospect ahead, a real encounter with the men still prepared to fight and die for the Libyan leader.

Imagine our surprise then when, hot and exhausted, mid-way through day two, we drew up next to a destroyed mobile phone tower 30km outside the little coastal town of Brega.

The mangled mass of steel lay prostrate beside the road, the control room shattered and burned.

"This," our guide told us, "was destroyed by a Nato bomb last week. Five workers were killed and a family in a passing car."


Evasive minders

We all piled out and dutifully took pictures, but several of us were already starting to feel deep unease. Surely they had not dragged us all this way across Libya on a lie?

"When are we going to see the military?" one of my colleagues from the US media asked.

Ismail, our foreign ministry minder, looked evasive and my heart sank further.

We drove on down the road a few more kilometres before pulling off on to an airfield. Beside it stood the shattered remains of a huge hangar.

None of our minders was quite sure when this had been destroyed by Nato. But they were very sure it was a violation of the UN Security Council Resolution 1973.


A couple of kilometres further on we arrived at the Brega oil terminal, a sprawling industrial complex next to the turquoise Mediterranean Sea.

A welcoming committee, familiar to all journalists working in Libya, was waiting for us. They waved pictures of Col Gaddafi, green flags and chanted "Libya, Gaddafi, Libya, Gaddafi!".

By now, it was becoming rapidly clear that our minders had no intention of taking us anywhere near anything even vaguely military.

Instead, we were shown the remains of a destroyed house, once the home, we were told, of the family of an oil worker.

"These were innocent people asleep in their beds when Nato killed them," a local official shouted angrily. "Why is Nato killing innocent people?"

But there was something not quite right about the bomb site. Clearly, a house had been destroyed. But, sitting in the rubble, was something very odd - it was an ejection seat from a Russian-built fighter jet.

"What is this?" we asked an oil company official.

"It is a motor for a boat," he said with complete confidence. "Many of the people here in the oil company have boats to go fishing in the sea."

I took a note of the Russian markings on the side to look up later. As I thought, it was a Zvezda K-36 ejection seat used in many front-line Russian-built fighter aircraft. But what on earth was it doing in the middle of an alleged Nato bombing site?

And there were more anomalies.

In the dirt next to the house I found dozens of spent cartridges. They were from large 20mm rounds - the sort used in anti-aircraft guns. Was an anti-aircraft gun parked next to the house that had been hit?


Familiar faces

Around the corner we were shown another bomb site. But here the rubble had already been cleared.

"This was the site of a madrassa - 12 people were killed here while they were studying the Holy Koran," the irate official told us.

"They were studying the Koran in the middle of the night?" we asked.

"Yes," we were told emphatically.

"Can you take us to the graveyard to see where they are buried?" we asked.

"No, their bodies have all been taken to Tripoli," the official blurted, now looking somewhat less confident.

Disappointment was now turning to anger. We had been dragged more than 700km across the desert to see yet another propaganda display, and a pretty poor one at that.

"If you won't take us to see the military at least take us to Brega town to meet some real locals," we demanded.

After some negotiation, this was agreed. We piled back on to the bus and headed off. But, as the bus reached the main road, instead of turning left to Brega, it turned right back towards Tripoli.

"What is going on?" we demanded.

"First, we are going to have lunch," our minders insisted. "Then we go to Brega."

Some 20 minutes down the road, we entered another small town. As we drew up, a large group of people came dashing towards the bus. They were holding up more pictures of Col Gaddafi and chanting. Several of the faces were strangely familiar. Then I realised they were exactly the same people we had seen back at the oil terminal.


It was the final straw. Our anger exploded. One of my American colleagues who speaks good Arabic screamed at them.

"Enough of this! It's a farce!"

And that is how our trip to the front line in Brega ended - in anger and recrimination. We drove the 10 hours back to Tripoli in virtual silence, our minders unhappy at the task they had been assigned, us journalists angry at being tricked into taking part in a three-day farce.

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

quote:

Some 20 minutes down the road, we entered another small town. As we drew up, a large group of people came dashing towards the bus. They were holding up more pictures of Col Gaddafi and chanting. Several of the faces were strangely familiar. Then I realised they were exactly the same people we had seen back at the oil terminal.

That reminds me of when a friend visited North Korea and noticed the same "locals" every night in completely different places. Such a dumb and obvious tactic.

Ace Oliveira
Dec 27, 2009

"I wonder if there is beer on the sun."
If the rebels made an advance and linked the two fronts together, where was the advance from? If they advanced from their positions near Brega, then they would have to go through Brega, right?

Also, I imagine NATO now has given up on their plan for the regime to implode, right? Because if they're still trying to make that happen, then why are they bombing poo poo in the frontlines, and not going back to bombing the military in Tripoli?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Paul Danahar of the BBC Tweeted the following about the fronts linking up, it was in Misrata/Zliten:

quote:

Rebls in Misrata say they have 11 dead and dozens injured fighting Gaddafi troops. They say they pushed forward 7km and aim to hold gains.

Heard nothing of NATO. 7km is a lot but also some injuries from small arms today, not rockets, so something has gone on.

(regarding deaths) 11 verified on the rebel side. Can't say on Gaddafi side and unethical to ask POW's those questions. Suspect 7km sideays to link up. Rebels cagey about giving too much info. If they hold then important.

It's actually a bit unclear where they advanced, and think he's suggestion the south and east front attacking Zliten pushed forward and linked up, creating a much longer front.

It does seem like NATO has given up with bombing the regime into submission, it'll be interesting to see where todays strikes are, and hopefully there will be some reports from Zliten confirming the rebels advance.

There's also various rumours on Twitter of more fighting in more isolated towns, and reports of Nafusa rebels all over the place, seemingly leap frogging towns to cause problems for Gaddafi forces elsewhere, but again, there's no press confirmation.

VanSandman
Feb 16, 2011
SWAP.AVI EXCHANGER
I'd just like to say thank you for all the effort you guys put into keeping all this in one place. Its better, comprehensive journalism than you'll find pretty much anywhere except a history book dedicated to a single subject.
Is there a list of countries who've had their officers trained by the US? I'd love to look at that list.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

It's a pretty long list, going back many years, and involving some pretty dark chapters in history. Just start with the School of Americas and work your way from there.

Here's the BBC story on the advances in Misrata yesterday:

quote:

Libya: Rebels 'create Misrata arc'
Libyan rebels have succeeded in creating a defensive arc south and west of the port of Misrata by linking up two fronts, they have told the BBC.

They showed the BBC a number of soldiers from Col Muammar Gaddafi's forces who had been wounded and captured during heavy fighting earlier on Tuesday.

The fighting left at least 11 people dead around the city, rebels say.

They are trying to break out of Misrata to advance on the capital Tripoli.

Since anti-government protests turned into armed rebellion more than four months ago, the two sides have been locked in a stalemate, despite a Nato-led air campaign against Col Gaddafi's forces.

Rebels hold much of Libya's east, plus Misrata and several towns in the Nafusa mountains near the Tunisian border.

Tuesday also saw clashes around Brega in the east and the Nafusa mountains on the Tunisian border, but the BBC's Gabriel Gatehouse in Misrata said neither side was making significant progress.

The latest fighting began early on Tuesday, with firing and shelling from both sides continuing well into the afternoon, our correspondent says.

Meanwhile, rebel positions in Dafniya came under heavy fire as government forces attempted an advance, reports said.

A hospital worker in Misrata told Reuters news agency that 11 rebel fighters were killed and dozens wounded while a rebel source told AFP news agency that 11 people "almost of them civilians" had been killed.

Operating under a UN mandate, Nato and several Arab states have been carrying out air strikes against military targets linked to Col Gaddafi for nearly four months, mandated to defend civilians from the Libyan leader's attempts to crush an uprising against him.

Pressure has been growing to find an end to the conflict, but the rebels insist Col Gaddafi must step down. So far he has refused.

There's more reports on Twitter of rebel advances in other areas, but I'll wait until they have more solid confirmation before posting them here.

NATO Operational update

quote:

Sorties conducted 05 JULY: 134
Strike sorties conducted 05 JULY: 56
Key Hits 05 JULY:
In the vicinity of Brega: 1 Command and Control Center.
In the vicinity of Gharyan: 2 Armed Vehicles, 4 Tanks.
In the vicinity of Misurata: 1 Tank, 1 Command and Control Center, 1 Artillery piece.
In the vicinity of Sirte: 3 Armoured Fighting Vehicle.
In the vicinity of Waddan: 1 Military Storage Facility.
Still strikes at the various frontlines, and no mention of Tripoli at all today.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 10:14 on Jul 6, 2011

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Bit more of an update from Libya:

quote:


Libya rebels launch assault on gateway to Tripoli

Libyan rebels launch a promised assault on a key gateway to Tripoli early Wednesday, attacking government positions just 50 kilometres (30 miles) from the capital, an AFP correspondent reported.

Buoyed by controversial French arms drops and intensified NATO-led air strikes on the regime's frontline armour, the rebels launched an assault on the Gualich area, in the plains north of their enclave in the Nafusa mountains southwest of Tripoli.

After a retreat from around the plains town of Bir al-Ghanam last week, spokesman Colonel Ahmed Omar Bani had pledged on Saturday that the rebel army would soon try to push the frontline northwards.

"In the next two days, the (revolutionaries) will come up with answers. Things will change on the front line," he said.

There was some talk on Twitter yesterday about the rebels being 10km away from Zawiya at Hrarat, but I'm having trouble locating Gualich or Hrarat on a map, so I don't know if they are the same location.

There's also reports of a combined NATO and rebel push eastwards in Nafusa, and the electricity being cut off in the more rebellious areas of Tripoli, but not yet confirmed.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

More on the Nafusa fighting I mentioned in my earlier posts:

quote:

Western mountain rebels launch offensive southwest of Tripoli
AL-QALAA, Libya, July 6 (Reuters) - Hundreds of Libyan rebels launched a massed offensive in the mountains southwest of Tripoli on Wednesday to seize a village held by Muammar Gaddafi's forces and push the front line closer to the capital.

Rebels arrived at the front at first light in scores of Toyota pick-up trucks, many with large-calibre anti-aircraft guns or home-made rocket launchers welded onto the truck beds. Several tanks also came on the backs of lorries.

The rebels began firing rockets and mortars at dawn, cries of "Allahu Akbar!" or "God is greatest!" echoing through groves of olive, almond and fig trees with each outgoing blast.

Gaddafi's forces responded with intermittent volleys of Grad tactical surface-to-surface rockets. Clouds of black smoke came from the hillsides where the incoming rounds exploded.

Five months into their revolt, rebels have gained little ground elsewhere but have made steady progress here on a high plateau which juts several hundred kilometres (miles) into Libya from the Tunisian border and overlooks a coastal plain leading to Tripoli.

The rebels' aim on Wednesday was to push 10 km (6 miles) from the town of Al-Qalaa to the village of Al-Qawalish, which is held by Gaddafi's forces.

The fighters were pushing south-east, away from the capital, but taking Al-Qawalish is strategically important because beyond it, further to the east, is the larger town of Garyan which controls the main highway north to the capital.

Throughout the morning, rebels advanced on foot through hilly wasteland and orchards towards Al-Qawalish carrying old rifles and makeshift rocket launchers.

The hills reverberated with call-and-response chants of "There is no God but God!"

After several hours, the rebels had advanced a couple of kilometres towards Al-Qawalish, and there was no sign of any casualties.

NATO warplanes could be heard in the sky, but it could not be confirmed if the aircraft were coordinating with the rebels.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

In Syria, it seems the regime has lost control of Hama, a city of 700k people:

quote:

Here's more of what Omar from Hama said about the current stand-off in the city. "The people are controlling the whole city," he said. The security forces and even the traffic police are being kept out.

He said the army were making occasional raids on the city, to protect government forces, but residents were largely keeping them at bay. "It is become more and more difficult to attack and enter the city," he said.

This morning was largely calm, Omar said, but earlier plain-clothed police arrived in unmarked cars and taxis to shoot at protesters to create a sense of fear. This has made people more angry and cautions, and caused more roadblocks to be erected, Omar said. "Even for me it is very difficult [to get through]; every road there are 10 barricades."

On the death toll he said it "looks like" 28 had been killed. Some of the injured are in a "very critical" condition. He suggested the final death toll would not be known for some time. Seven people have been buried in a village west of Hama, Omar said. Hospitals report 90 injured people, but that does not include those with more minor wounds, Omar pointed out.

He claimed the security forces were using weapons that fired multiple pellets that injured many people, but in most cases not fatally. There are hundreds of people with gunshot wounds, he said.

Omar said it was possible that a policeman was killed in the clashes, as the Syrian state news agency has claimed. "Maybe they have captured one guy and killed him," he said. "Maybe they defended themselves and used a knife and killed him."

Residents are fighting back with stones, catapults and slingshots, he said. "There are thousands of slings. That's our weapon. Not a single [gun]shot has come up from Hama. [After] three months of demonstrating and more 300 people killed, Hama has not used ... guns."

He added: "This solution [the crackdown] has bought Syria to deadlock now ... and Hama is being supported by all Syria. The people are standing up; we want solutions. We want to be able to demonstrate peacefully. It [the protest] will continue until peaceful solution comes out or they move out. We want the constitution of 1973 to be thrown out."

He said he wanted a return to an amended version of Syria's 1950 constitution. "That would solve the problem of Syria," he said.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

The rebels are claiming they've captured Al-Qawalish, and are still moving forwards to Ghayran. Hopefully one of the journalists in Nafusa can confirm that soon.
Here's confirmation from Reuters:

quote:

Libya rebels seize village from pro-Gaddafi forces
Libyan rebel fighters took control of the village of Al-Qawalish, south-east of Tripoli, on Wednesday after a six-hour battle with government forces, a Reuters reporter in the village said.

Scores of rebel fighters poured into the village through an abandoned government checkpoint, firing their rifles into the air in celebration and shouting "Allahu Akbar!", or "God is greatest!".

There was evidence of a hurried withdrawal by forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. Near the checkpoint there were collapsed tents, half-eaten bread as well as a van and an electricity transformer station which were both on fire, the reporter said.
The Nafusa rebels are the best rebels.

[edit]Some Tweets from Jonah Hull, the AJE journalist reporting from that region:

quote:

Rebel fighters say G forces have fled Qwaleesh. Rebel tanks departing, fighters going in to town. Jubilant.
If they hold it, an important step on road to Gharyan, then onwards to Tripoli.
Two Gaddafi prisoners just been driven out in back of a pick-up after six-hour battle. No word on casualties.

A report from Misrata to

quote:

Libyan rebels say they make advance near Misrata
DAFNIYA, Libya, July 6 (Reuters) - Libyan rebel fighters based in Misrata advanced about 20 km (12 miles) west towards the capital, rebel commanders said on Wednesday, but government forces were shelling their positions.

Rebel commanders in Dafniya, on the western outskirts of Misrata, told Reuters their forces had made the advance overnight along one stretch of the front line, but Reuters journalists were unable to confirm that independently.

The advance -- which would be the biggest by the rebels in weeks of largely static fighting west of Misrata -- could leave the rebels exposed because they have not had time to dig in and build defensive positions.

From a field hospital in Dafniya, the sound of the impact from mortars, artillery and Russian-made Grad rockets could be heard every few seconds.

A Reuters reporter at the hospital saw two wounded soldiers being brought in from the front. One was injured in the upper thigh and another had leg wounds.

Medical staff bandaged them up for transport to another hospital in the centre of Misrata, which is 200 km (130 miles) east of Tripoli. The stretchers on which they were brought in were quickly washed down and sent back to the front line.

One rebel fighter said one of his colleagues had been killed in the artillery bombardment on Wednesday.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 13:59 on Jul 6, 2011

pylb
Sep 22, 2010

"The superfluous, a very necessary thing"
So is Goualich/Al Qawalish/El Gawalesh the same place with varying spellings ? It's just southeast of Yafran if so.
No idea about Hrarat though.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

I believe it's actually the area near Miskah, I've pointed this map at it. I think it's one of those areas that is quite large, and has a town named after it, so it's a bit confusing where it actually is.

Here's another report from the area:

quote:

Libya rebels launch assault on Tripoli gateway
Libyan rebels backed by NATO air power on Wednesday launched a promised assault on a key gateway to Tripoli, attacking positions just 50 kilometres from the capital.

Buoyed by French arms drops and NATO-led air strikes, the rebels attacked positions in the Gualish area, in the plains north of their enclave in the Nafusa mountains southwest of Tripoli, an AFP correspondent said.

A rebel leader from the hilltown of Zintan said his forces had co-ordinated their assault with NATO, which has stepped up its bombing campaign by destroying frontline armour of Moammar Gadhafi's regime in the past week.

"We waited before launching this assault and finally got the green light from NATO this morning and the offensive began," the rebel leader said.

There were intense exchanges of artillery, mortar and cannon fire between the rebel fighters and government troops dug in around Gualish, the AFP correspondent reported.

NATO-led warplanes flew over the battlefield, but there were no immediate air strikes.

The area targeted by the rebel offensive is seen as strategic as it also features the garrison city of Gharyan, a government stronghold in the Nafusa mountains.

After a retreat from around the plains town of Bir al-Ghanam last week, spokesman Col. Ahmed Omar Bani had pledged on Saturday that the rebel army would soon try to push the front line northwards.

"In the next two days, the (revolutionaries) will come up with answers. Things will change on the front line," he said.

Wednesday's offensive comes a day after France said it no longer needs to drop weapons to the rebels fighting the Gadhafi regime since they are getting more organized and can arrange to arm themselves.

"The (rebel) territories are organizing their autonomy . . . That is why the parachute drops are no longer necessary," French Defence Minister Gerard Longuet said.

However he cautioned against the rebels' chances of defeating Gadhafi and pushing toward the capital.

Paris admitted last week it has made a series of parachute drops of weapons, including rocket launchers, to Berber rebel fighters in the Nafusa Mountains in a move criticized by Russia and the African Union.

Last week the rebels also seized regime bunkers containing rockets, machine guns and other munitions in the desert about 25 kilometres south of Zintan.

On Tuesday, shelling by forces loyal to Gadhafi killed 11 people and wounded dozens more — mostly civilians — around the besieged rebel enclave of Misrata, 200 kilometres east of Tripoli, the insurgents said.

The attacks marked another bloody milestone for Misrata, Libya's third-largest city that has been shelled almost continuously since March.

Across the Gulf of Sirte, on the eastern front line, a rebel representative said nine Gadhafi soldiers were captured between the strategic towns of Ajdabiya and Brega.

On the diplomatic front, an unnamed senior Russian official was quoted Tuesday as saying Gadhafi would consider stepping down — an offer that, if realized, would meet the rebels' central demand.

The rebels have thus far rejected any deal that would leave Gadhafi in power.

Meanwhile preparations were underway for a international meeting on Libya in Istanbul on July 15-16, as diplomats increasingly mull what post-Gadhafi Libya might look like, with many hoping to avoid Iraq or Afghanistan-style chaos.

NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Tuesday the alliance would like to see the United Nations assume the lead role in Libya's transition to democracy in the event Gadhafi leaves power.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS
Is there a map somewhere showing the rebel held territory and any gains or losses of territory? Or is it all too fluid to have a precise idea at any given time?

mistermojo
Jul 3, 2004

4liters posted:

Is there a map somewhere showing the rebel held territory and any gains or losses of territory? Or is it all too fluid to have a precise idea at any given time?

The one on Wikipedia is pretty good and was last updated on June 22nd

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Until today it's all been pretty stable, so the older maps would do. I expect to see more change over the next few weeks, as NATO are now supporting rebel advancing in Zliten, Brega and Nafusa.

mistermojo posted:

The one on Wikipedia is pretty good and was last updated on June 22nd

You can see why Gharyan is so important on this map. Capture that and Tripoli become very isolated from the rest of Libya.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Another report from Misrata:

quote:

Chris Stephen in Misrata has more on what he says is "an apparently coordinated two-pronged offensive" by the Libyan rebels – attacking the town of Gheyran from the Western Mountains south-west of Tripoli and attacking Zlitan, on the road to Tripoli, from Misrata. Chris writes:

quote:

Rebel authorities have refused to confirm that the two offensives are linked, but a Misratan rebel commander, Hassan Duen, told the Guardian "Our forces are now three kilometers from Zlitan; we are pushing onwards."

Chris adds:

quote:

Gunfire and explosions from grad rockets echoed every few seconds across Misrata from before dawn, mixing with the wail of ambulance sirens and Islamic chants broadcast from city mosques to comfort the bereaved. The explosions from incoming government rockets continued into the late afternoon.

Misrata's Hikma hospital reported twelve dead and 24 wounded by mid-afternoon as a steady stream of ambulances arrived in the forecourt throughout the day. The death toll is expected to rise – adding to the 17 dead and 32 wounded from two days of fighting around the city.

Chris says the rebels are under growing pressure to produce results, as the Libyan civil war approaches its fifth month and stalemate continues. "Rebel forces face a difficult task in finding the killing power to make a decisive breakthrough, lacking tanks and artillery, and with Nato apparently unwilling to use its jets and attack helicopters in co-ordinated air support roles."

People on Twitter are claiming the rebels are now about 3km south west of the centre of Zliten, and are digging in.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Brown Moses posted:

People on Twitter are claiming the rebels are now about 3km south west of the centre of Zliten, and are digging in.

I eagerly await the mainstream news reports commenting on this as the continuation of a "stalemate" between rebels and pro-G forces. :rolleyes:

Lustful Man Hugs
Jul 18, 2010

How many times has someone cried 'stalemate' only for the Rebels to capture a few more villages?

However, I think Tripoli is going to be different from the other smaller towns. Unless it gets cut off leading to massive, massive defects, there will need to be a bloodbath for there to be any sort of victory. I actually think letting Gaddafi stay alive but powerless would be worth avoiding such a calamity.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Here's three article worth reading:
Tripoli: a stronghold by day, a battleground at night, which talks about the resistance in Tripoli, and their attacks on Gaddafi security forces.
Libyan rebels launch dual offensive and Libyan rebels push towards Tripoli on two fronts which details todays events.

Sivias
Dec 12, 2006

I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.
How have the rebels been treating the towns they've taken over from pro-gadaffi forces? Is there a general amnesty for the civilians who "supported" gadaffi?

Also, it seems like the Misurata rebels and the mountain rebels are approaching each other. Is this intentional, or is it possible they may clash with each other? I would imagine they are united in their cause, but who knows.

It seems like these rebels are making significant gains against an 'organized' national army. Is there any indication as to the moral of the gadaffi troops, or their fighting strength?
It must be difficult to continue to fight such an opposition to the gadaffi regime - these people will die fighting, they can never say "Fine Gadaffi, you win, can we go back to our lives now?", not to mention they're basically backed by the rest of the world.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Mini update from NATO

quote:

NATO cuts off pro-Qadhafi access to fuel in Brega
On 6 July 2011, NATO aircraft struck military refuelling equipment to deny pro-Qadhafi forces access to fuel in the Brega area. Sustained observation of the area by NATO intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets proved it was being used to provide fuel for military vehicles and equipment engaging in attacks on civilians in the East of Libya.

Great care was taken at all times to minimise the risk to civilian infrastructure located in close proximity to the refuelling equipment. The strikes were therefore targeted on specific military re-fuelling equipment only, determined as sufficient to deny the use of the equipment by pro-Qadhafi forces.

“These precision strikes will limit the ability of pro-Qadhafi forces to threaten Libyan civilians and significantly degrade logistical support for Qadhafi’s campaign in Eastern Libya,” said Lieutenant-General Charles Bouchard, Commander of Operation Unified Protector.
Anyone have any idea how much fuel a military vehicle gets through, and how often then need to refuel?

Dreissi
Feb 14, 2007

:dukedog:
College Slice
That really depends on force composition (trucks v. tanks, etc.), but if they aren't advancing their fuel situation isn't going to be super desperate.

However, that really depends on what their fuel situation was like before the referenced bombing...I can't imagine it was super great.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Thanks to Brown Moses' link to Wikimapia, I think I found Hrarat, or al-Hararat. It's northwest of Garyan and about 37km south from it's far southmost end to Zawiyah.

Or 67km (40 miles) from the center of Tripoli.

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!

Jut posted:

Some news from Egypt. People are getting pissy because the transition govt is following proper legal procedure.
I understand that people want justice, but you can't just speed up a trial without sacrificing rigour.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14023293

This isn't the reason they're getting pissy. The actual reason is that the military is arranging a bunch of backroom deals with the deceased's families, such as paying them up to $120,000 in cash (the islamic diyya for the dead). The families agree to stop prosecuting the offending officers, but as they can't really waive the deceased's right, they just say "it wasn't this police officer" when there's actual evidence that would indict that officer. That means the charges are "legally" aimed at a John Doe.

And the people getting pissed? Actual political activists who don't really give a poo poo about wether someone's family gets $120,000 because they died.

Jut posted:

The fact remains, he could have caused a hell of a lot more poo poo than he did before standing down. CQ's gone way further than he did, so I seriously doubt he's getting any kind of immunity.

AllanGordon posted:

Anyway didn't Mubarak order the military to fire on the protestors and it got refused? I remember hearing that said a lot during the protests in Egypt.

Mubarak couldn't really have caused any more hell. He was trying to hang on to the last moment, in fact he convinced the military he would step down on Feb 10. but he didn't, which made the military force him out the next day.

And what is definitely fact is that Mubarak did order the military to open fire on the protestors all over the country on the eve of 29th January, and that the top brass had previously issued a sort of poll to most units asking how they would respond to the hypothetical event of being ordered to shoot unarmed civilian protestors. The result was a resounding No, and I think the top brass never really bothered giving the order anyway, but that's unknown. There may have been a split in how the brass wanted to handle it, some say the air force and the republican guard were on Mubarak's side, but the truth probably won't go public for 10 years or more.

So basically, what is definitely 100% true is that Mubarak did order the military to open fire on the protestors, and that somehow, the military didn't follow through. Anything else you read about this is probably rumor.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Ham posted:

This isn't the reason they're getting pissy. The actual reason is that the military is arranging a bunch of backroom deals with the deceased's families, such as paying them up to $120,000 in cash (the islamic diyya for the dead). The families agree to stop prosecuting the offending officers, but as they can't really waive the deceased's right, they just say "it wasn't this police officer" when there's actual evidence that would indict that officer. That means the charges are "legally" aimed at a John Doe.

And the people getting pissed? Actual political activists who don't really give a poo poo about wether someone's family gets $120,000 because they died.

Interesting to here this. Why would the military want to do this and not prosecute?! and why the hell are the media not reporting this either?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Dennis Kucinich has the piece in the Guardian today. I'll post the section I bothered to read:

quote:

The US must end its illegal war in Libya now
This week, I am sponsoring legislation in the United States Congress that will end US military involvement in Libya for the following reasons:

First, the war is illegal under the United States constitution and our War Powers Act, because only the US Congress has the authority to declare war and the president has been unable to show that the US faced an imminent threat from Libya. The president even ignored his top legal advisers at the Pentagon and the department of justice who insisted he needed congressional approval before bombing Libya.

Second, the war has reached a stalemate

AllanGordon
Jan 26, 2010

by Shine

Brown Moses posted:

Dennis Kucinich has the piece in the Guardian today. I'll post the section I bothered to read:

Any reports no what he he did when he went to Syria?

I just thought it was odd that the foremost antiwar senator would go to Syria during the height of the crackdowns. Just have no idea what he sought to learn from doing that.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

There's a Washington Post article about it here. I don't think it was the smartest thing he could have done, but he didn't go to the same length of Cynthia Mckinney.

AllanGordon
Jan 26, 2010

by Shine

Brown Moses posted:

There's a Washington Post article about it here. I don't think it was the smartest thing he could have done, but he didn't go to the same length of Cynthia Mckinney.

How can anyone believe the claims of reform from someone who ordered his soldiers to fire on peaceful protestors.

I mean maybe he's just being realistic in what can be achieved, but man that seems hollow.

Hefty Leftist
Jun 26, 2011

"You know how vodka or whiskey are distilled multiple times to taste good? It's the same with shit. After being digested for the third time shit starts to taste reeeeeeaaaally yummy."


AllanGordon posted:

How can anyone believe the claims of reform from someone who ordered his soldiers to fire on peaceful protestors.

I mean maybe he's just being realistic in what can be achieved, but man that seems hollow.

He's an idiot, as are all people who support dictators. Simple as that.

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Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

This Guardian article has a section on what various governments consider a "catastrophic success", and explains why until now NATO has focused on bombing Tripoli and trying to get the regime to give up, rather than focusing on rebel military successes:

quote:

Libya, for its part, is presently locked in a military and political impasse while Gaddafi's staying power continues to surprise his western adversaries. This cannot last indefinitely, and some regional experts are beginning to worry the west's intervention there could ultimately prove too effective – resulting in what is termed "catastrophic success".

In this scenario, the negotiated settlement between regime and rebels and the orderly departure from power of Muammar Gaddafi that is the UN and Nato's stated aim does not happen. Instead, Gaddafi is killed or flees, his government implodes, the rebels' national transitional council splinters into rival power bases, and unpaid army units and police, renegade mercenaries and tribal militias (armed in some cases by France) commence battle for the nation's oil wealth.

"This is not a benign scenario," said one Libya watcher. "Once Gaddafi has gone we need to quickly establish law and order and some basic public services and nothing else" – in other words, avoid the mistakes made by US forces in Iraq, who tried to run the country. A UN-mandated peacekeeping force, drawn from Arab and Muslim (not western) countries, will be essential in a Libyan post-conflict situation. Whether sufficient time and thought is being spent planning for such eventualities is unclear at this point. "We do not see a large humanitarian problem," the Libya watcher said. "But we do see a post-Gaddafi unrest scenario."

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