Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

«‹›3125 »

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Another report from Brega:

quote:

Libya Freedom Fighters claim victory in Brega
Rebel forces have routed most of Moamar Gaddafi�s troops in the Libyan oil town of Brega in the biggest boost for the insurgents� military campaign in eastern Libya in weeks, a rebel spokesman said.

The rebel fighters have encircled Brega, an oil export terminal with a refinery and chemical plant, which for months marked the eastern limit of Gaddafi�s control, rebel spokesman Shamsiddin Abdulmolah said.

But its streets are littered with landmines, making it hard to secure full control of the area.

�The main body [of Gaddafi's forces] retreated to Ras Lanuf [to the west],� Mr Abdulmolah said by telephone.

�I am told they have some four-wheel drive trucks with machineguns spread out between Ras Lanuf and Bishr.�

While rebel fighters have been making gains in eastern and western Libya in recent days, Russia criticised the United States and other countries for recognising the rebel leadership as the legitimate government of Libya, saying they were taking sides in the insurgents� five-month-old war to oust Gaddafi.

�Those who declare recognition stand fully on the side of one political force in a civil war,� Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said.

US secretary of state Hillary Clinton announced US recognition of the rebels on Friday, while in Turkey for a meeting of an international contact group on Libya � a major diplomatic step that could unblock billions of dollars in frozen Libyan funds.

Russia and China have taken a softer line towards Gaddafi, and neither attended the contact group meeting.

Brega, about 750 kilometres east of Tripoli, is the site of a strategic oil terminal. The attack could signal a new rebel push westwards from their main stronghold in the east of the country after weeks of stalemate.

Gaddafi is refusing to step down despite the five-month-old rebellion against his rule, a campaign of NATO air strikes, and the defections of members of his inner circle.

The slow progress of the rebel military campaign has caused strains within NATO, some member states pressing for a negotiated solution to hasten the end of a conflict many thought would last only a few weeks.
Gaddafi defiant

Reports have circulated that Gaddafi is seeking a negotiated way out of the crisis, but in a speech on Saturday he described the rebels as worthless traitors and rejected suggestions that he was about to leave the country.

Brega has changed hands several times in the back-and-forth fighting along Libya�s Mediterranean coast since the rebellion began in February.

Rebels say taking it back will be a tipping point in the conflict on the eastern front.

NATO warplanes have been attacking pro-Gaddafi forces near Brega. The alliance said targets hit on Friday included one tank, five armoured fighting vehicles and two rocket launchers.

Libyan officials in Tripoli have made no comment on any fighting in Brega, and it was not immediately possible to verify rebel accounts of what was happening there.

On another front, in the Western Mountains region south-west of Tripoli, pro-Gaddafi forces exchanged artillery fire on Sunday with rebels in the village of Al-Qawalish, a rebel fighter manning a checkpoint there said.

Despite resistance from Gaddafi troops, the rebels have made advances in the area.

# ? Jul 18, 2011 14:54

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? Jun 3, 2024 13:54

Ace Oliveira: Dec 27, 2009; "I wonder if there is beer on the sun."

Thank god they took Brega. Now all they have to do is take Ras Lanuf and Sirte, right?

# ? Jul 18, 2011 14:55

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

They don't even need to take Sirte, just keep is surrounded and make sure nothing gets out. There's main roads that bypass it easily, and there's not much on the coastal road west of Sirte. The main question is how deep Gaddafi's defences are, but I don't imagine they'll find much beyond Ras Lanuf. A little bit more:

quote:

Chris Stephen, reporting from Misrata, has more on the fight for the Libyan oil town Brega.

quote:
Libyan rebel forces say they are engaged in street fighting in the government-controlled eastern town of Brega on the fifth day of a sustained offensive to gain control of one of the country's most important oil towns.

Radio Misrata reported that rebel units advanced into Brega City (or New Brega) a housing complex east of the main city, with other units close to the oil terminal, one of the largest in the country. The radio broadcast said rebel units have advanced in three columns, from the east, north and south, and that the southern push is trying to encircle the town.

[edit] Also, if you look at a map of Ras Lanuf you've got what appears to be a pretty empty stretch of road coming from Brega, then about 2km of oil storage tankers that are about 75m across, and spread out with plenty of room between, so not ideal hiding places. To the north there's a not very built up dock, and further west there's a few building, about 2km to a fairly featureless airport, and them another 2km to a 1km by 1km low density residential area. The only way it'll be a problem is if they've mined the poo poo out of it.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 15:15 on Jul 18, 2011

# ? Jul 18, 2011 15:03

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Live blogs July 19th
Guardian
Libya
Feb17.info
LibyaFeb17
AJE Egypt
AJE Yemen
AJE Syria

NATO reprt

quote:

Sorties conducted 18JULY: 129
Strike sorties conducted 18 JULY: 44

Key Hits 18 JULY:
In the vicinity of Brega: 8 Armed Vehicles, 2 Armoured Fighting Vehicles.
In the vicinity of Tripoli: 1 Artillery Piece, 1 Radar, 1 Surface-to-Air-Missile Launcher, 1 Command and Control Vehicle, 1 Command and Control Node.
In the vicinity of Misrata: 6 Artillery Pieces.
In the vicinity of Waddan: 1 Military Storage Facility.

More attacks in Brega, Waddan is still being bombed, and more bombing in Tripoli. The Rixos journalists are currently reporting more bombing in Tripoli as well.

There's not a huge amount of news from Brega, the clearing of mines is carrying on, and the town is slowly being secured, and the Gaddafi troops are being kept back. The Libyan UK spokesman confirmed the plan will be to bypass Sirte and link up with the Misrata freedom fighters, assisting them in their push towards Tripoli.

# ? Jul 19, 2011 09:49

Vincent Van Goatse: Nov 8, 2006; Enjoy every sandwich.; Smellrose

I don't know if this matters but the Waddan storage facility they keep bombing is next door to Al Jufra Air Base, which has Libya's strategic bomber force, or rather what used to be its strategic bomber force, since it seems (per Google Earth) to comprise seven old Soviet Tu-22 Blinders which probably haven't flown for a decade because of no spare parts.

Presumably there's something at the storage facility that NATO absolutely wants to destroy (as if that wasn't obvious). Maybe it's aircraft parts or missiles/heavy ordnance.

Anyway, I'm curious about exactly how much of a priority destruction of grounded Libyan planes was/is, especially now that the NTC is the recognized government. Wonder if NATO wants to try to leave something for the new government's Air Force to use when the fighting ends besides the dozen or so warplanes that are known to have defected. Considering how much of it is obsolescent Soviet-bloc garbage (the best planes in Gaddafi's Air Force were three Mirage 1Fs, of which one was shot down and the other two defected to Malta, so the best of the remaining planes are a few dozen MiG-23s) I'm not sure the NTC would even care much.

Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 11:55 on Jul 19, 2011

# ? Jul 19, 2011 11:42

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

I don't know if this matters but the Waddan storage facility they keep bombing is next door to Al Jufra Air Base, which has Libya's strategic bomber force, or rather what used to be its strategic bomber force, since it seems (per Google Earth) to comprise seven old Soviet Tu-22 Blinders which probably haven't flown for a decade because of no spare parts.

Presumably there's something at the storage facility that NATO absolutely wants to destroy (as if that wasn't obvious). Maybe it's aircraft parts or missiles/heavy ordnance.

I think someone (Brown Moses?) said that Waddan is where Qaddafi had his chemical weapons stashed. He doesn't have the delivery systems for them anymore, but the actual chemicals are stored in bunkers, awaiting proper disposal.

# ? Jul 19, 2011 12:09

Vincent Van Goatse: Nov 8, 2006; Enjoy every sandwich.; Smellrose

Young Freud posted:

I think someone (Brown Moses?) said that Waddan is where Qaddafi had his chemical weapons stashed. He doesn't have the delivery systems for them anymore, but the actual chemicals are stored in bunkers, awaiting proper disposal.

Yeah, but I remember whoever posted it said that it's only speculation that the chemicals even exist any more. But yeah, it seems the most likely reason. Possible CW gear plus nearby airfield = big fuckoff priority target.

# ? Jul 19, 2011 12:13

The Pebbler: Nov 22, 2006; by T. Finn

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

I don't know if this matters but the Waddan storage facility they keep bombing is next door to Al Jufra Air Base, which has Libya's strategic bomber force, or rather what used to be its strategic bomber force, since it seems (per Google Earth) to comprise seven old Soviet Tu-22 Blinders which probably haven't flown for a decade because of no spare parts.

Presumably there's something at the storage facility that NATO absolutely wants to destroy (as if that wasn't obvious). Maybe it's aircraft parts or missiles/heavy ordnance.

Anyway, I'm curious about exactly how much of a priority destruction of grounded Libyan planes was/is, especially now that the NTC is the recognized government. Wonder if NATO wants to try to leave something for the new government's Air Force to use when the fighting ends besides the dozen or so warplanes that are known to have defected. Considering how much of it is obsolescent Soviet-bloc garbage (the best planes in Gaddafi's Air Force were three Mirage 1Fs, of which one was shot down and the other two defected to Malta, so the best of the remaining planes are a few dozen MiG-23s) I'm not sure the NTC would even care much.

Why spare targets? NATO countries are gonna make a sweet deal trading military aid for oil to the new Libyan government.

# ? Jul 19, 2011 13:06

Dreissi: Feb 14, 2007; College Slice

The Pebbler posted:

Why spare targets? NATO countries are gonna make a sweet deal trading military aid for oil to the new Libyan government.

I'm sorry, but military planners do not take into account profits some idiot contractor can make after a conflict is over. The goal is always to end the conflict with the result the superior wants in the fastest way possible. And in a situation where munitions are fairly limited (like what SecDef indicated in his speech to NATO) its kind of ridiculous to assume what you are saying.

# ? Jul 19, 2011 13:35

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

France is now claiming that Brega is controlled by the NTC

# ? Jul 19, 2011 15:10

Zeroisanumber: Oct 23, 2010; Nap Ghost

Brown Moses posted:

France is now claiming that Brega is controlled by the NTC

This morning NPR reported that the Brega offensive and other NTC advances have been seriously hampered by the fact that Muammar is laying out thousands of landmines. The report centered on three men who are clearing minefields using their eyeballs, a couple of sharp sticks, and a metal detector that can't find most of the low-metal content mines that Quaddafi's assholes have been scattering around.

# ? Jul 19, 2011 16:57

Prostheticfoot: Mar 27, 2002

Pretty much all of the mine clearing done by anybody, especially at this stage in the conflict, is going to be dudes with sticks poking the ground... hating their lives as they mark out a few square feet clear at a time. I don't believe it's common that third world countries get the big thresher flails that can take a boom or any of the more advanced gear. Even years after the conflict has ended.

# ? Jul 19, 2011 18:54

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Which is a drat shame because mine clearing technology is some of the coolest poo poo out there.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mine-clearing_line_charge

Basically they use rockets to launch a 200+ meter explosive filled hose across a minefield. Then, they detonate it, clearing a 6-9 meter path through minefields.

Obviously these sorts of devices are not optimized for use in urban areas.

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 19:05 on Jul 19, 2011

# ? Jul 19, 2011 19:02

Zappatista: Oct 28, 2008; WILL AMOUNT TO NOTHING IN LIFE.

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Yeah, but I remember whoever posted it said that it's only speculation that the chemicals even exist any more. But yeah, it seems the most likely reason. Possible CW gear plus nearby airfield = big fuckoff priority target.

Isn't bombing CW bunkers a big no-no?

This is probably one of the only situations which I can approve of cluster bombs being useful. Drop a shitload of 'em and the unexploded bomblets will make it too fuckoff dangerous for any govt attempt to get 'em outta the bunkers.

# ? Jul 19, 2011 19:37

Patter Song: Mar 26, 2010; Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.; Fun Shoe

So, we're seeing a lot of "siege Sirt v. bypass Sirt" talk. As Sirt is Qaddafi's last major stronghold in central Libya, but is also his hometown and home of his most loyal supporters, is it worth taking or would it be better to just cut it off? I suppose on one side, the idea is that if Tripoli falls, Sirt falls, but on the other hand, taking Sirt would make the Colonel into the mayor of Tripoli, essentially, which has its own advantages. Even if Tripoli is a fifth of the country, it can't hold on long if the entire rest of the parts of the country that matters are rebel controlled, and as the last non-Tripoli major Libyan city controlled by Qaddafi, Sirt has symbolic value.

# ? Jul 19, 2011 19:41

Golbez: Oct 9, 2002; 1 2 3!
If you want to take a shot at me get in line, line
1 2 3!
Baby, I've had all my shots and I'm fine

I agree; taking Sirt is probably much more valuable than besieging it. Even better would be if it had a Misrata-like uprising and it switched sides - probably in a bloody fashion - as rebel troops approached. That would be a nice kick in the sack to Gaddafi. It looked like that was going to happen during the initial surge, before the rebels were driven back to Ajdabiya.

The fundamental truth here is, with NATO involved, there simply is no way for Gaddafi to win. The country will either be split, or he will be forced out. Capturing Sirt would probably accomplish this faster than besieging it.

# ? Jul 19, 2011 19:45

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

Capturing Sirt would be a disaster. Because it seems quite likely that, unlike Misurata or Behghazi, Surt is going to be filled with people who are mostly hostile to the rebels. That means police, conflicts with civilians, a huge expenditure of manpower in checkpoints and searches and disarmament of the locals, all while Ghaddafi forces are potentially mixed in with them. Things will get out of hand. There will be shootings. Angry rebels with no experience in crowd control and peacekeeping will get frustrated and engage in reprisals. We saw how bad it could get with highly-trained US forces trying to do this in Iraq; imagine barely-trained volunteer rebel militias trying to do it.

The Rebels cannot afford the manpower nor the political cost of trying to hold a hostile city.

# ? Jul 19, 2011 20:03

Warcabbit: Apr 26, 2008; Wedge Regret

Hm. Someone wrote an article on the government growing up in Libya. It's temporary, but... well, looks good.
http://www.peacefare.net/?p=3912

quote:

Local councils have grown up in liberated areas as well as in Gaddafi-held territory, including Tripoli (where there are thought to be four). They are the ones governing at the local level. The February 17 coalition of lawyers and judges is influential. A relatively moderate Muslim brotherhood seems to dominate the Islamists part of the political spectrum, at least for the moment. Technocrats from the Gaddafi regime, military officers, militia leaders, �syndicates� (regime-sponsored guilds of lawyers, doctors, etc.), secular democrats will all have roles to play.

Dunno how accurate it is, but it seems reasonable.

# ? Jul 20, 2011 01:36

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

New York Times made it into Hama, Syria, which the Syrian army has withdrawn from.

http://lens.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/19/a-western-photographer-in-hama-syria/?src=tptw

Some good photographs, though suprisingly few.

Here's the corresponding article, by Shadid.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/20/world/middleeast/20hama.html?_r=1 posted:

In this city that bears the scars of one of the modern Middle East�s bloodiest episodes, the revolt against President Bashar al-Assad has begun to help Syrians imagine life after dictatorship as it forges new leaders, organizes its own defense and reckons with a grim past in an uncertain experiment that showcases the forces that could end Mr. Assad�s rule.

Dozens of barricades of trash bins, street lamps, bulldozers and sandbags, defended in various states of vigilance, block the feared return of the security forces that surprisingly withdrew last month. Protests begin past midnight, drawing raucous crowds of youths celebrating the simple fact that they can protest. At dusk, distant cries echo off cinder blocks and stone that render a tableau here of jubilation, fear and memory of a crackdown a generation ago whose toll � 10,000, 20,000, more � remains a defiant guess.

�Hama is free,� the protesters chant, �and it will remain free.�

Freedom is a word heard often these days in this city, Syria�s fourth largest, though that freedom could yet prove elusive. Hama rebelled last month, and the government withdrew the soldiers and security forces seemingly to forestall even more bloodshed, ceding space along the Orontes River that is really neither liberated nor subjugated.

In the uncertain interregnum, punctuated by worry that the security forces might return and fear of informers left behind, Hama has emerged in the four-month revolt against Mr. Assad as a turbulent model of what a city in Syria might resemble once four decades of dictatorship end. In skittish streets, there are at least nascent notions of self-determination, as residents seek to speak for themselves and defend a city that they declare theirs.

The sole poster of Mr. Assad in the city hangs from the undamaged headquarters of the ruling Baath Party. Gaggles of residents gather on the curb to debate politics, sing protest songs and retell the traumas of the crackdown in 1982, when the government stormed Hama to end an Islamist uprising. For the first time in memory, clerics and the educated elite in Hama are negotiating with the governor over how to administer the city, in a country long accustomed to a monologue delivered by the ruler to the ruled.

�This is the way a city is supposed to be,� said a 49-year-old former government employee of nearly three decades who gave his name as Abu Muhammad.

Lined with oleander and eucalyptus trees, the road to Hama underlines the depth of the challenge today to Mr. Assad. Tanks are parked inside Homs, to the south. More are stationed at the entrances to smaller towns in between Homs and Hama � Talbiseh and Rastan, where protesters dismantled a statue of Mr. Assad�s father, Hafez, who seized power in 1970. At one entrance, strewn with stones thrown by protesters, a slogan says, �The army and the people are one hand.� But the scenes of jittery soldiers behind sandbags and turrets of tanks pointed at incoming traffic suggest an army of occupation.

�Syria is colonized by its own sons,� one resident quipped.

Hama is bracing for an attack by a government that may regret its decision to withdraw on the first week of June, after an especially bloody Friday. But the authorities seem at a loss over how to retake control of the rebellious city that is Syria�s most religiously conservative. Railing from fences was torn down and stones from sidewalks unearthed to build scores of barricades, which block entrances to most neighborhoods. Refuse has accumulated along streets where every trash bin seems part of a barrier.

Youths have distributed bags of rocks to the checkpoints, and some, too young to shave, carry bars and sticks. Others sneak cigarettes, away from disapproving parents. A banner in Jerajmeh Square seemed to plead their case: �Here is Hama. It is not Tel Aviv� � a reference to Syria�s avowed enemy, Israel.

�Of course, we know the regime can enter any time,� said a 30-year-old carpenter with a goatee and blue eyes who gave his name as Abdel-Razzaq. He shrugged his shoulders at the prospect. �So the battle will happen,� he said. �What can we do about it?�

Even as they celebrate Hama�s measure of freedom, residents elsewhere have wondered what motivated the government to withdraw its forces from Hama. Some suggest foreign pressure, others point to Hama�s demographics. Unlike Homs, Hama has no Alawite minority, the heterodox Muslim sect from which the country�s leadership draws much of its support. The city�s small Christian population seems wary, but unharried.

A City�s Painful Past

But most believe the key lies in Hama�s past, quoting a refrain heard almost any time the city�s name is mentioned.

�Hama is wounded,� it goes.

Under the orders of Hafez al-Assad, the Syrian Army quelled the revolt in 1982 with a brutality that defined his later rule. He ended the rebellion, but the ferocity forever changed his leadership, ushering forth a suspicion and paranoia that still dominates his family�s politics. The three weeks of fighting left behind a graveyard in this city, too. Planes bombed Hama�s historic quarter, and tanks plowed through narrow streets. Mass executions were routine, as was torture visited on survivors.

�Hama is the cemetery of the nation,� say graffiti here.

�Every house has martyrs,� said a 25-year-old petroleum engineer who gave his name as Adnan. Others joined him, sitting in plastic chairs on the curb, sipping tea.

Seventeen had died on their street, named after Sheik Mustafa al-Hamid, Adnan and others said. Many of the children playing soccer nearby bore the names of the dead. One recalled his uncle Mahmoud, who he said was shot 24 times and survived, though badly crippled. �He looked like a strainer,� he said. A pharmacist said he never heard from his cousin, Othman, again.

�Their sons and grandsons are doing the protests today,� Abu Muhammad, the former government employee, said.

On successive Fridays since the government pulled out its forces, the protests in Assi Square � renamed Martyrs� Square � have grown as quickly as fear crumbled, reaching more than 100,000 this month. Songs like �Get Out Bashar� were taken up by protesters in other cities and, by Syria�s standards, became a YouTube sensation.

In President�s Square, the government dismantled a statue of Hafez al-Assad on June 10. The next day, residents recalled, a man nicknamed Gilamo put his donkey on the pedestal. Hundreds gathered, clapping, in mock displays of obsequiousness.

�Oh, youth of Damascus, we in Hama overthrew the regime,� residents recalled them chanting. �We removed Hafez, and we put a donkey in his place.�

Several residents said the security forces shot the donkey a few days later.

In the vacuum, new leaders have begun to emerge, sometimes coexisting uneasily in a city that seems to be staggering into the unknown. Youthful protesters have come together in a group called the Free Ones of Hama, but it is more a name than an organization. Their real work, activists say, happens in their own neighborhoods, where they organize shifts to defend barricades, persuade their mothers to cook stuffed squash for their friends and relentlessly document the uprising with cameras, cellphones and camcorders.

No security troops can come close, they declare, without their streets sounding the alarm, erupting in cries of �God is great,� the chorus joined by a cacophony of banging pots and pans.

�The fear has been broken,� said Adnan, one of the protest leaders.

The protesters, though, hold little sway with the government, which has negotiated with the city to a surprising degree. These days, Hama is represented by Mustafa Abdel-Rahman, the 60-year-old cleric in charge of the Serjawi Mosque. Residents say he consults with worshipers at his mosque, along with doctors, lawyers and engineers in the neighborhoods, over ways to defuse tension. Under the latest deal, the government agreed to release prisoners if protesters dismantled checkpoints on the main roads. The protesters did, though in the end, only a fraction of the more than 1,200 detainees were freed.

�They will keep taking people, definitely,� said Tarek, a 22-year-old protester. �We can�t trust them. We just can�t trust them anymore.�

A Revolt�s Microcosm

Over these six weeks, Hama has, in a way, emerged as a microcosm of the revolt � what the protesters see as competing visions of liberation and what the government labels chaos.

As in other places, the government has spoken of armed gangs and Islamists roaming the city�s streets, though over two days, not a single weapon was seen, save a slingshot. Islamists populate and perhaps dominate the ranks of protesters, and by some estimates, a fourth of the city has fled, fearing a showdown more than the brand of rule the Islamists might impose.

The government has spoken of losing control, though the city still functions. Shops have reopened, people walk the streets, and the municipal administration � from courts to trash collection � began working again Saturday after a two-week strike. Gardeners watered city squares, and cars obeyed traffic signals along streets where not a single government building was damaged beyond a few broken windows. Although the security forces have disappeared � all 16 branches of them, by some residents� count � the traffic police still come to work.

�You don�t feel secure unless the security forces are gone,� Abu Muhammad said.

But episodes of lawlessness and vengeance have punctuated the city�s experiment. An informer was hanged from an electricity pylon last month; the bodies of three or four others were thrown into the Orontes River, residents say. A week ago, three Korean-made cars were stolen from a dealership, residents said, and some businessmen have complained about the checkpoints and a two-week strike that shut down Hama. Many frowned upon the dismantling of street lights and other infrastructure to build the barriers.

�There was no destruction with the protests, why does there have to be with the checkpoints?� asked a 40-year-old trader who gave his name as Ahmed. �Without a doubt, people are angry. I am myself. There are thugs out there, without question.�

At least anecdotally, his seemed to be a minority opinion.

Festive Protesters

The scenes on Saturday night were less chaotic than festive, as crowds lined the streets to watch a spontaneous protest celebrating the freedom of the few prisoners released. The demonstrators headed to the governor�s building, which was adorned in a slogan that still said �Assad�s Syria.� Youths jumped in their cars, speeding through pulsating streets, trading rumors and news over cellphones that rang incessantly. They joked with one another at checkpoints.

�Next time I see you, we�ll be playing cards together in jail,� one said.

Around midnight, a protester named Obada joined his friends in what seemed to be a cross between a dorm room and a safe house. The coals for water pipes smoldered in the corner, near computers, headphones, a big-screen television, a scanner, sound-mixing equipment and stacks of compact discs documenting protests, arrests and clashes with the security forces.

Each took a turn to celebrate what their uprising meant.

�There�s no fear,� said Mustafa, 27.

�You can walk in the streets with security,� added his friend, Mahmoud.

�We�ve come closer together,� volunteered Fadi, typing on his computer.

Another friend, Bassem, shook his head.

�We�re not free yet,� he said.

# ? Jul 20, 2011 02:09

Pureauthor: Jul 8, 2010; ASK ME ABOUT KISSING A GHOST

quote:

Each took a turn to celebrate what their uprising meant.

�There�s no fear,� said Mustafa, 27.

�You can walk in the streets with security,� added his friend, Mahmoud.

�We�ve come closer together,� volunteered Fadi, typing on his computer.

Another friend, Bassem, shook his head.

�We�re not free yet,� he said.

Well, somebody's being a negative Nancy.

On a more serious note, what are the realistic chances of the situation in Syria going out of control in the 'bloodbath' direction?

# ? Jul 20, 2011 03:24

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Pureauthor posted:

Well, somebody's being a negative Nancy.

On a more serious note, what are the realistic chances of the situation in Syria going out of control in the 'bloodbath' direction?

Do you have a coin?

Repression comes easily and naturally to autocratic regimes and a tempestuous relationship with the mob, in the old usage, leaves them with surprisingly few options if the populace remains recalcitrant.
There is a rather extensive question of legitimacy at the root here and that, as always, becomes incredibly tricky to establish in the blurry line between consent and fear.

# ? Jul 20, 2011 03:38

Lascivious Sloth: Apr 26, 2008; by sebmojo

Brega

quote:

Thirteen opposition fighters have been killed near the eastern oil town of Brega where rebels have been pushing to seize the area for nearly a week.

Rebels told Al Jazeera, their position was leaked to Gaddafi's forces by spies within the rebel force. The opposition controls most of eastern Libya but has not controlled Brega since April.

The town has crucial oil and gas supplies and rebels fear that Gaddafi loyalists may sabotage the facilities there if they are forced to retreat.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/07/201171922526752203.html

Gaddafi

quote:

Tens of thousands of embattled Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's supporters rallied on Tuesday (July 19) in al -Azizyah town, 40km southwest of Tripoli. Waving the green flags and chanting "Only God, Muammar and Libya" the supporters gathered in the town main square.

Gaddafi addressed the crowds with a live audio speech and vowed to fight on till the end.

"We are in our homes, on our land, we will fight, we will defend, with men, women and children," he said. The rally was the fifth in 12 days, staged to show Gaddafi's support in the towns he still controls.

# ? Jul 20, 2011 06:26

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

NATO Report

quote:

Sorties conducted 19JULY: 113
Strike sorties conducted 19 JULY: 40
Key Hits 19 JULY:
In the vicinity of Brega: 5 Armed Vehicles, 1 Armoured Fighting Vehicle.
In the vicinity of Misrata: 1 Anti-Aircraft Gun, 2 Armed Vehicle.
In the vicinity of Tripoli: 6 Surface-to-Air-Missile Launcher, 2 Armed Vehicles.
In the vicinity of Waddan: 1 Military Storage Facility.
In the vicinity of Zlitan: 2 Command and Control Nodes, 2 Military Storage Facility, 3 Military Facilities,
2 Military Refuelling Areas.

James Bays of AJE has just been Tweeting that the rebels in Nafusa have been given a new set of instructions saying anyone caught violating international law will be severely punished and jailed, after various reports of looting and destruction. Here's the document in question if you read Arabic.

# ? Jul 20, 2011 10:13

Supeerme: Sep 13, 2010

Lascivious Sloth posted:

"we will defend with men,woman and children"

Is he suggesting that he will do a last stand much like Germany did at the end of ww2? I really hope that I'm wrong.

# ? Jul 20, 2011 11:12

Jut: May 16, 2005; by Ralp

Supeerme posted:

Is he suggesting that he will do a last stand much like Germany did at the end of ww2? I really hope that I'm wrong.

He will salt the earth if he has to.

# ? Jul 20, 2011 13:08

Dr FreeThrow: Jul 3, 2005

Pureauthor posted:

On a more serious note, what are the realistic chances of the situation in Syria going out of control in the 'bloodbath' direction?

For months, dozens of protesters daily have been dying violent deaths. It is and has been a bloodbath.

Regarding Sirte, the rebels thought they captured it briefly during the rapid coastal advance following the beginning of the NATO intervention. It seems to have been only after Gaddafi's troops arrived in Sirte from Tripoli that the town was lost. It could be that the residents were lying in wait and allowing the rebels to think they had captured it, but I think it may be more likely that the residents are open to either leadership.

Guardian article on March Sirte advance

Dr FreeThrow fucked around with this message at 14:19 on Jul 20, 2011

# ? Jul 20, 2011 13:56

pylb: Sep 22, 2010; ^{"The superfluous, a very necessary thing"}

Here's a pro-Gaddafi video about Brega still being under his control, though I couldn't understand anything said. It is supposed to be from yesterday, though I don't know if there's any way to verify that.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzWdwgGrjmo

# ? Jul 20, 2011 14:42

Golbez: Oct 9, 2002; 1 2 3!
If you want to take a shot at me get in line, line
1 2 3!
Baby, I've had all my shots and I'm fine

Brown Moses posted:

Sorties conducted 19JULY: 113
Strike sorties conducted 19 JULY: 40

I'm new here, so what were the other 73 sorties? Recon, strike missions that ended up not firing?

# ? Jul 20, 2011 14:48

karthun: Nov 16, 2006; I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Golbez posted:

I'm new here, so what were the other 73 sorties? Recon, strike missions that ended up not firing?

Recon, escort, command and control, might even be air refueling.

# ? Jul 20, 2011 14:50

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Yeah, it's when they didn't fire. There's been a drop of strikes, but I think that's probably more to do with a lack of targets then anything.

# ? Jul 20, 2011 14:51

pylb: Sep 22, 2010; ^{"The superfluous, a very necessary thing"}

Golbez posted:

I'm new here, so what were the other 73 sorties? Recon, strike missions that ended up not firing?

(at least for the french army) Strike sorties are sorties where the mission on take off is specifically to engage ground targets. Whether they actually do fire doesn't matter. Likewise, if a plane not on a strike sortie engages a target, it won't be classified as a strike sortie. Other types include recon, escort, air control, refuelling and the heli flights.

The youtube account has some old videos of Alain Soral I noticed, who is antifeminism, has implied Zionist Jews are mentally ill and "believes that Yugoslavia was dismembered by the USA, which saw an opportunity to gain political ground and influence in South-Eastern Europe by arming Albanian separatist movements" (now just replace Yugoslavia by Libya, SE Europe by Middle East and Albanian separatists by rebels :tinfoil:

).
VVVVV

pylb fucked around with this message at 15:52 on Jul 20, 2011

# ? Jul 20, 2011 15:08

Hefty Leftist: Jun 26, 2011; "You know how vodka or whiskey are distilled multiple times to taste good? It's the same with shit. After being digested for the third time shit starts to taste reeeeeeaaaally yummy."

pylb posted:

Here's a pro-Gaddafi video about Brega still being under his control, though I couldn't understand anything said. It is supposed to be from yesterday, though I don't know if there's any way to verify that.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzWdwgGrjmo

I really have to wonder if those commenters are one or two people with accounts or if they're legitimately brainwashed by Gadaffi.

# ? Jul 20, 2011 15:12

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Serb Nationalists hate NATO, so they blindly support anyone who is opposed to them.

# ? Jul 20, 2011 15:27

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Some news about rebel progress:

quote:

Libyan rebels push towards Zlitan
Libyan rebel forces in Misrata, supported by Nato air strikes, launched an offensive towards the government-held town of Zlitan on Wednesday morning, with fighters saying they were making gains amid heavy fighting.

"We are now one and a half kilometres from Zlitan," said a rebel fighter, Mohammed Ashanobah, of the Shaheed (Martyr) Brigade. "The revolutionaries attacked at eight this morning."

In eastern Libya, rebels continue to try to capture Brega, a key government-held town that is home to an oil refinery. They said they were being hampered in their efforts by extensive minefields.

Nato said it destroyed six government artillery pieces around Misrata on Monday and planes hit a further 12 targets on Tuesday, marking a sharp escalation in alliance air strikes around the besieged city.

Hikma hospital in Misrata reported seven fighters killed and 14 wounded by midday. Tripoli issued no casualty figures. Among the wounded were two government soldiers brought to the hospital for treatment by the man who shot them.

Hiden Hassan, 37, another Shaheed Brigade fighter, said the two soldiers had driven towards them as they advanced. "They came in a Toyota and they were shooting at us," he said. "We fired back. The Toyota stopped and they jumped out, still firing their weapons. So I shot at them, I hit them both in the legs."

He said he called on his comrades to drag the wounded men behind the frontline, and then accompanied them in a rebel pickup truck to the hospital. "They are Muslims, I am Muslim, they are Libyans, I am Libyan," he said. "It was my duty to help."

Rebel units have failed to break the six-week deadlock around the city, and the latest offensive is important politically and militarily. Together with the Brega offensive, the rebel National Transitional Council in Benghazi hope to demonstrate to coalition forces that they can win the war and avert talk of a compromise political solution that may divide the country.

Hopefully in the next 10 days we'll see Brega and Zliten both fully under the control of the NTC forces.

# ? Jul 20, 2011 15:43

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

The BBC Journalists Pier Schofield Tweeted a few interesting things about Zliten:

quote:

#NATO have been very helpful in today's advance towards #Zliten, #Feb17 rebel spox tells BBC.
Source inside town of #Zliten tells BBC #Gaddafi forces there are in disarray, ambulance sirens going all day, hospital full.
Source inside #Zliten tells BBC #NATO struck the houses of two significant #Gaddafi commanders.

# ? Jul 20, 2011 16:14

Burt Sexual: Jan 26, 2006; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS; Switchblade Switcharoo

Brown Moses posted:

Yeah, it's when they didn't fire. There's been a drop of strikes, but I think that's probably more to do with a lack of targets then anything.

Well just drop some more on that Waddaan storage facility!

Some flights also drop "get out before we wreck your poo poo" flyers too I bet.

# ? Jul 20, 2011 18:14

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

This article suggests a new front has opened:

quote:

Rebels Move Toward Gadhafi Stronghold
ZINTAN, Libya�Rebel fighters have penetrated Libya's southwest desert and pulled within 80 miles of Col. Moammar Gadhafi's southern stronghold, opening a new front and suggesting the strongman's grip is slipping even in areas believed firmly in his control.

The rebels captured a small village south of Sebha on Monday. The fall of Sebha, one of Col. Gadhafi's three regional power centers in Libya, would be a huge symbolic and strategic blow.

The city of 130,000 is a logistics hub for the regime, channeling food, fuel, personnel and other war supplies northward from southern farmlands and neighboring Algeria, Chad and Niger, said rebel leaders.

Even if the rebels only threaten Sebha, which Col. Gadhafi has been able to leave lightly defended until now thanks to strong tribal support in the area, it could force him to redeploy units battling elsewhere to defend the city, further stretching his already battered forces.

Many of Col. Gadhafi's most-loyal commanders and fighters hail from Sebha and may feel compelled to abandon the fight on distant fronts to protect their homes and families, rebel leaders said.

In recent weeks, the rebels have made progress on every front of the war. In the Western Mountains, they have advanced to within 35 miles of Tripoli. In the besieged coastal city of Misrata, they have steadily pushed back Col. Gadhafi's fighters. On Wednesday, Misrata's rebels resumed an offensive against the neighboring town of Zlitan. And in the east the rebels are in the midst of an offensive to take the oil city of Brega.

On Wednesday, Libyan rebel leaders met with French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Paris and asked him to support their plans to mount a military offensive on Tripoli aimed at toppling Col. Gadhafi.

The delegation of rebel chiefs, which included senior officers from Misrata and a member of Libya's National Transitional Council, the main opposition group to Col. Gadhafi, said they needed more weapons and logistical assistance to oust the longtime leader.

The previous day, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the civilian head of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, praised the rebels' progress in an interview at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

"The opposition forces are now more experienced, better trained, better coordinated," he said. The situation on the ground is "absolutely not a stalemate," he said, adding that Col. Gadhafi's forces have suffered "a very, very clear weakening."

Due to poor communications networks, lack of Internet and its remote desert location, southern Libya has received scant attention during the Libyan uprising. Reaching residents in southern Libya remains tremendously difficult.

This account of the southern offensive has been pieced together based on interviews with residents of southern Libya, rebel commanders on the ground in the south and in the Western Mountains, Libyan activists with friends and family living in southern Libya, and rebel officials who represent the south. The details are impossible to independently confirm, but six people interviewed gave broadly corroborative accounts of the fighting.

The rebel fighting force that is now rumbling through the southwestern desert was first mustered in late May and early June in the southeastern oasis city of Kufra, said rebel activists and rebel officials from southern Libya. A resident of the southern town of Qatron, which rebels took last week, estimated the force includes between 60 and 65 four-by-four vehicles and as many as 300 fighters.

Earlier this month, the force captured a remote desert airfield and army outpost called Al Wigh, near Libya's borders with Niger and soon after seized the Tummu border crossing with Niger, said those interviewed.

The force began advancing north, toward Sebha, and last week, the force took the village of Qatron without a fight. On Sunday, pro-Gadhafi fighters attacked the advancing rebels, said a resident of the village and a rebel commander on the ground, Ramadan Al-Alakie.

The rebel fighters repulsed the attack and pressed their advance, both men said.

The retreating Gadhafi forces concentrated in Taraghin, the hometown of Bashir Salah, Col. Gadhafi's chief of staff, to block the rebel advance to Sebha. The rebel force simply went around the town, and on Monday took control of the tiny village of Umm al-Aranib, they said. Now, just 80 miles of empty desert and one tiny village stand between the rebels and Sebha.

Through the first months of the uprising, little information leaked out from Sebha, where the powerful Magarha and Col. Gadhafi's own Gadhadfa tribes, both pillars of his regime, hold sway. It was long thought that the city was such a fierce bastion of pro-Gadhafi support that it was all but impregnable.

But in recent weeks, cracks have begun to show in Sebha. Two YouTube videos have been posted that rebel activists say depict anti-Gadhafi demonstrations in the city. Libyans living abroad who are from Sebha and still have family and friends there said the city has seen sporadic violent protests for the past two months.

The arrest in May of a small group of high school students who displayed the rebel independence flag at school angered powerful families in Sebha, said Khalid Al-Humeida, a Libyan Ph.D. student in Britain who spent the past 15 years living in Sebha and has friends and relatives still there.

The students, whose whereabouts remain unknown, hailed from families with long histories of loyalty to Col. Gadhafi. Still, when family elders appealed to local security commanders to release their sons or even for information on their whereabouts, arguing that they were simply misguided teenagers, they were ignored, said Mr. Humeida.

A protest on the streets where some of the arrested students' families live turned violent, said Mr. Humeida, adding that a 30-year-old father of two, Ismail Busbeiha, was shot and wounded during the protest. At a Sebha hospital, doctors were forbidden to treat him and he died, Mr. Humeida said. After his funeral the following day, Sebha saw its biggest anti-Gadhafi street protests of the war.

Sebha's pro-Gadhafi tribal leaders stepped in to restore a negotiated but uneasy calm in the city, but activists from Sebha say the city isn't the staunch pro-Gadhafi bastion that the regime has sought to portray.

"You're starting to see a network and trust forming between anti-Gadhafi people in Sebha," said Mr. Humeida. "Gadhafi's support in the city is not as strong as people think."

# ? Jul 20, 2011 23:01

Lascivious Sloth: Apr 26, 2008; by sebmojo

A setback in Brega, and the NTC is asking for France to convince Arab countries to supply weapons.

Brega:

quote:

Anti-Gaddafi forces suffered heavy casualties in fighting for the eastern oil hub of Brega, a town they must capture if they are to advance towards Tripoli.

Eighteen fighters were killed and up to 150 wounded in the latest clashes, a doctor at an opposition-controlled hospital said.

"Yesterday, it was a disaster," Dr Sarahat Atta-Alah told Reuters News Agency at Ajdabiya hospital in eastern Libya.

NTC:

quote:

Three Libyan opposition leaders met French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Paris, asking him to persuade France's Arab allies to provide them with weapons.

"France can help us get this help from friendly Arab countries," Souleiman Fortia, a representative of the National Transitional Council, told reporters after the meeting.

"With a bit of help we can be in Tripoli soon."

Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 23:42 on Jul 20, 2011

# ? Jul 20, 2011 23:40

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

It's actually really interesting to read the WSJ report on this new southern front, as there's been a lot of unconfirmed reports on Twitter for weeks and weeks about rebel activity in that area, but as the report states, it was very difficult to confirm anything. One thing to remember is this front has been advancing with virtually no NATO support, and they seem to be a very small but mobile force, and could greatly disrupt Gaddafi supply lines and cause him some real headaches.

# ? Jul 21, 2011 08:48

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? Jun 3, 2024 13:54

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Live Blogs July 21st
Guardian
Feb17.info

Libya

quote:

Rebel fighters claim to have encircled remaining Gaddafi troops in the strategic oil town of Brega but they are being held up by minefields.

quote:

Gaddafi held a rally in al-Aziziya, south of the capital as part of his ongoing attempts to mobilise tribes to combat recent rebel advances, the Associated Press reports. The Libyan dictator said:

quote:
Look at the tribes of the Warshafana, who dares to challenge them? No one can; they will help free Libya from the hands of these rebels. You are preparing today to march to the western mountains to cleanse it and liberate it from the traitors and mercenaries.

AP reports

quote:
Over the past week, Gaddafi has started injecting more and more references to the tribes in his almost daily speeches and begun talking about a popular march of "millions" of tribesmen to reclaim the lost territory.

Sometimes it is an unarmed march of men, women and children, other times it sounds like more of a military operation, but at the very least it suggests some kind of counter-attack may be in the offing.

It is impossible to determine independently whether the tribesmen truly support the Gaddafi military, as the government repeatedly insists, or whether they are ready to mount an assault on the mountains.

quote:

A representative of the Libyan opposition council who met with the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, in Paris on Wednesday, claims rebel fighters could reach Tripoli within "days" with the help of the French. Suleiman Fortia told reporters after the meeting:

quote:
With a little bit of help, we will be in Tripoli very soon. Very soon means days. We are here in France to discuss how we can do the job.

The rebel leaders asked France for more weapons to help their offensive

NATO Report

quote:

Sorties conducted 20 JULY: 122
Strike sorties conducted 20JULY: 53
In the vicinity of Brega: 2 Armed Vehicles, 1 Rocket Launcher.
In the vicinity of Misrata: 2 Rocket Launchers, 3 Armed Vehicle.
In the vicinity of Tripoli: 2 Surface-to-Air-Missile Launcher, 1 Radar.
In the vicinity of Waddan: 1 Military Storage Facility.
In the vicinity of Zlitan: 2 Command and Control Nodes, 4 Military Storage Facilities, 5 Military Facilities, 2 Military Refueling Areas.

That seems to support the story that Brega is surrounded, that there's been a major attack on Zlitan resulting in a major rebel advance in the area.

Egypt

quote:

� Egypt's council of military rulers will not allow international monitors to observe upcoming parliamentary elections designed to move the country back toward civilian rule, a council member has said.

Major General Mamdouh Shaheen, who presented the new law to reporters said barring foreign monitors was a necessary step to protect Egypt's sovereignty. He said:

quote:
We have nothing to hide...we reject anything that affects our sovereignty.

Egyptian election monitors will observe the process instead, he said. Hafez Abou Saada, a member of the National Council for Human Rights, said promises of free and fair elections from the military are not enough, noting that denying international monitors mirrors the line adopted by the regime of the deposed dictator, Hosni Mubarak. He said:

quote:
International monitors are part of any modern elections. Many countries are watching what is happening in Egypt. This is not a very positive signal.

� Egypt's new cabinet is expected to be sworn in, three days behind schedule, after postponements due to protests over Prime Minister Essam Sharaf's choices and his admittance to hospital suffering from exhaustion.

# ? Jul 21, 2011 10:05

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

«‹›3125 »