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AllanGordon
Jan 26, 2010

by Shine

Al-Saqr posted:

Here is an excellent sit down on aljazeera with a group of egyptians that represents the closest thing to the general consensus on egypts outlook to it's foreign policy future.Video Link

Also, I dont get why people are worried about the MB running for president, as long as they suscribe to the rules of democracy then let them, I mean hell I just watched a long interview with a salafist lawyer who wants to run for president (Hazem Salah abu ismail (sorry arabic only)) and even though he has some ideas that arent palatable to social liberals, he is a firm beleiver in democracy, diversity and the need for a fair and civil government. so if a salafist can sound reasonable then I dont view the MB running for president as a bad thing.

Aren't they strong proponents of Shariah Law?

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Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.
They are, but they've also been very clear that they don't want to institute it by force and they're willing to work within a democratic framework.

Has there been any announcement about presidential elections yet?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Here's the latest NATO report

quote:

Sorties conducted 23 JULY: 125
Strike sorties conducted 23 JULY: 56

Key Hits 23 JULY:
In the vicinity of Brega: 1 Military Storage Facility, 1 Multiple Rocket-Launcher, 1 Command and Control Node, 1 Armored Vehicle.
In the vicinity of Al Khum: 1 Military Storage Facility
In the vicinity of Tripoli: 2 Command and Control Nodes, 2 Surface-to-Air Missile Launcher, 1 Anti-Aircraft Gun.
In the vicinity of Waddan: 1 Military Storage Facility.
In the vicinity of Zintan: 1 Artillery Piece.
In the vicinity of Zlitan: 4 Military Storage Facilities, 1 Tank.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Good story about the state of Gaddafi's forces.

quote:

Captured Kadafi soldiers tell rebels they have doubts
Reporting from Yafran, Libya—

Moammar Kadafi's frontline soldiers are well-fed and well-supplied, even down to the occasional single-serving bottle of Jim Beam.

And many of his troops remain convinced that they are battling foreign extremists seeking to take over Libya.

But some recently captured soldiers are haunted by doubts.

"We talk about whether the war is right," said a prisoner from a town near the coastal city of Zawiya who was wounded in the frontline town of Kikla in the western mountains of Libya. He spoke on condition that his name not be published for fear of endangering his family.

"We have been talking about whether what we do is right or wrong. But we don't have any choice."

Recent battlefield victories by rebels in the Nafusa Mountains have yielded valuable clues about Kadafi's forces for those seeking to oust the Libyan leader. The finds include notebooks packed with soldiers' names and identification card numbers, sometimes left behind in hasty retreats.

Rebel soldiers in Nalut discovered kits filled with antidotes to chemical weapons, inspiring fear that Kadafi would be willing to use weapons of mass destruction against his own people to retain power.

"For first aid and self aid to persons injured by nerve and paralyzing war poisons," says the label on one package.

Military experts say Kadafi retains stockpiles of deadly mustard gas but lacks rockets to deliver it.

Rebels who recently scoured houses in Kikla found abandoned assault rifles that were new and well-maintained, a dismaying indicator of how well-supplied Kadafi forces are.

They also said they found identity papers of fighters from other countries, including Niger, evidence of Kadafi's recruitment of foreign mercenaries to fight Libyan rebels.

In the town of Rayana, they also discovered bottles of liquor, which strictly observant Muslim rebels consider a sign of moral depravity among Kadafi's fighters.

But the greatest intelligence finds are the captured soldiers, who often are more than willing to talk once they realize that their captors are Libyans, rather than invading Algerians, Islamic radicals or others.

In addition to sometimes dated battlefield intelligence, prisoners can provide insight to their mood and loyalties.

Col. Mokhtar Milad Fernana, commander of rebel forces in western Libya, says most prisoners claim they wanted to join the opposition at some point. "But they couldn't because they were afraid they'd be killed by mercenaries," he said.

The captured soldier from the Zawiya area complained that Kadafi's soldiers are underpaid; he's been in Libya's armed forces since 2004 and has not been able to save enough to get married and start a family.

He said Libyan troops are kept in line by units of the People's Militia, young toughs often recruited from among the criminal element.

Military leaders, he said, "told us that we were going to fight Al Qaeda, Afghans, Algeria, and that they were using local civilians as human shields."

Now that he's seen that they were actually fighting Libyans, he said, he will stay "with [his] brothers until everything is over."

He may not have a choice; his room at the hospital in Yafran is bolted with a chain and lock.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

James Bay is reporting from Nafusa that Gaddafi forces have started heavily shelling the rebel from lines, but all they can see advancing towards them are people in civilian clothes.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Seems the advance has stopped, James Bay said there were civilian women moving towards them during the bombardment, possibly human shields, or Gaddafi forces in disguise.

The X-man cometh
Nov 1, 2009

suboptimal posted:

Where did the MB announce they'd be running a presidential candidate? Al Masry al Youm doesn't have anything on that, and last time I checked, Freedom & Justice wasn't running a candidate for the presidency. I wasn't surprised when they announced they'd be aligning with al-Wafad, but I didn't think they'd be running a candidate so soon.

edit: did they really get over their internal rifts so quickly? I'd been reading so much about the split between the older, more cautious vanguard and the newer, more liberal members.

I think the reference was to the Freedom and Justice Party, which has Muslim Brotherhood members.

There's a link to Al Masry al Youm here, but they won't include the Brotherhood

quote:

Asked if the Freedom and Justice Party’s candidate could be affiliated with the Brotherhood, Erian said “I don’t think so.”
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/480031

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!

el samayo grande posted:

I think the reference was to the Freedom and Justice Party, which has Muslim Brotherhood members.

There's a link to Al Masry al Youm here, but they won't include the Brotherhood

http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/480031

The Freedom and Justice party IS the Muslim Brotherhood party. It's their political arm.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

NATO report

quote:

Sorties conducted 24 JULY: 163
Strike sorties conducted 24 JULY: 43
Key Hits 23 JULY:
In the vicinity of Brega: 1 Military Storage Facility.
In the vicinity of Tripoli: 1 Surface-to-Air Missile Launcher, 1 Military Storage Facility, 1 Tank.
In the vicinity of Waddan:1 Ammunition Storage Facility.
In the vicinity of Zintan: 1 Tank
In the vicinity of Zlitan: 2 Ammuntion Storage Facility, 1 Command and Control Node.
In the vicinity of Gharyan: 1 Tank, 1 Multiple Rocket Launcher
Pretty much the same situation as the previous days, the only real thing of note was the Gaddafi attack in Nafusa, and I think the strikes in Gharyan might relate to that attack.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

The Guardian live blog is up, they've got a couple of interesting pieces from Egypt:

quote:

Dozens of people were injured in Cairo after protesters were attacked by armed gangs sympathetic to the military rulers in the Abbayia district of the city. The clashes started when a march on the ministry of defence was blocked by soldiers and protersters were attacked by thugs wielding wielding swords, knives and petrol bombs.

• Blogger Hossam El-Hamalawy has this account of the violence:

quote:

We stood our ground, demanding we pass. We were refused. The attack started. Young men carrying swords and knives flocked to our right, while others were stoning us from the side streets. Soldiers kept firing their machine guns into the air, to be followed later by a chopper circulating around our heads. It was a war zone in every sense of the word.

There's some good stuff on Syria as well, where a lot of people seem to think the government is slowly losing control of the situation:

quote:

Syrian troops have raided a village in the north-west province of Idleb as President Bashar al-Assad tries to quash dissent in the run up to Ramadan, when protests are expected to intensify.

Activists have called this week the "week of detainees" to highlight more than 10,000 people estimated to be held, as a group of Palestinians from Yarmouk camp in Damascus warned that they would join protests after several people were detained in the area.

The Moor Next Door blog looks ahead to Ramadan in Syria.

quote:

In Syria, sectarian concerns have led the opposition to studiously make public gestures that reject and downplay religious particularism. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that such tendencies could carry on this Ramadan. Still, the tactical benefits of exploiting the holiday for political ends may well be too great to resist for Islamist and non-Islamist elements alike...

The secular, Ba'thist regime whose core leadership is heavily Alawite (again, with large participation from wealthy and prominent Sunnis and Christians) banning or killing Syrian Sunni Muslims in the tens or hundreds will only intensify resistance when it takes place during Ramadan...

The stakes of the struggle in Syria will only increase during Ramadan. Defections may become more frequent among the military rank and file in Syria and Libya. Narratives accusing religious extremists of running or co-opting popular protest movements — which have already become increasingly discredited – will come under more aggeressive scrutiny, particularly if ordinary, fasting Muslims unassociated with such political tendencies are continuously harmed by government forces.

New York Times reporter Anthony Shadid has spent the last week reporting from the restive cities of Hama and now Homs where he says sectarian tensions are coming to the fore.

quote:

Old divisions of geography, class and, in particular, religious sect are deepening...

The longer his [Assad] government remains in power, the less chance Syria has to avoid civil strife, sectarian cleansing and the kind of communal violence that killed at least two dozen people in Homs last week. Unlike in Egypt, and despite the protesters' hope and optimism, time is not necessarily on their side, a point that some of them admit.

"If the government keeps playing the sectarian card, they're going to get what they want," said [activist] Iyad... "If this regime lasts, there's absolutely going to be a civil war, absolutely."

Syria-watcher Joshua Landis says the government is losing control:

quote:

No mater how one interprets the conflicting reports or how one counts the number of protesters in each city, it is hard to escape the conclusion that Syria is becoming more divided, more sectarian, that more towns and cities are becoming involved in demonstrations, and that the government is not getting control of the uprising. On the contrary, the government does not have a military answer to the problems and is hesitant to use lots of force. When it does use force, things become worse. When it does not, things become worse. In Hama, where the governor withdrew the military, demonstrations grew. The government has so far pursued political solutions – dialogue and compromise – without conviction and little real compromise. It is not willing to open up the political arena to real competition.


Were protests last Friday a turning point for Syria? asks James Miller for the Huffington Post.

quote:

It is hard to imagine that the regime has any strongholds of significance left. Through crackdowns, and threats of sectarian violence, the protests have only grown in both scale, scope, and reach. To repeat the rhetorical questions I asked earlier on Friday; Where AREN'T they protesting in Syria?

Perhaps an even more pressing rhetorical question; How can the Assad regime possibly expect to survive this level of democratic upheaval?

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Al-Saqr posted:

Here is an excellent sit down on aljazeera with a group of egyptians that represents the closest thing to the general consensus on egypts outlook to it's foreign policy future.Video Link

Also, I dont get why people are worried about the MB running for president, as long as they suscribe to the rules of democracy then let them, I mean hell I just watched a long interview with a salafist lawyer who wants to run for president (Hazem Salah abu ismail (sorry arabic only)) and even though he has some ideas that arent palatable to social liberals, he is a firm beleiver in democracy, diversity and the need for a fair and civil government. so if a salafist can sound reasonable then I dont view the MB running for president as a bad thing.
My big concern if the decide to run a candidate for president is that they pull the same stunt they did in the referendum - "It's you're duty to god to vote for us".

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

quote:

The trial of Egypt's former interior minister Habib al-Adly has been postponed until next week, al-Masry al-Youm reports.

The trial was delayed so it can coincide with the trial of Mubarak and his sons which is due to start on August 3.

Reuters adds:

quote:

Adli is reviled by protesters after the police force he commanded fired live ammunition, teargas and water cannon to try to break up protests against Mubarak.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

These are apparently showing up around Tripoli, anyone else think it looks photoshopped?

scamtank
Feb 24, 2011

my desire to just be a FUCKING IDIOT all day long is rapidly overtaking my ability to FUNCTION

i suspect that means i'm MENTALLY ILL


Brown Moses posted:

These are apparently showing up around Tripoli, anyone else think it looks photoshopped?


I don't think so, no. It looks like a Soviet AA missile system to me, but I'm a little fuzzy on the exact model.

The closest match I can find on Wikipedia is the 2K12 Kub.

scamtank fucked around with this message at 12:43 on Jul 25, 2011

Finlander
Feb 21, 2011
So, are they planning on trying to shoot down bombers with those things? Although, if that's what they're trying to do, why didn't they deploy them earlier?
This is actually quite worrying, I think.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

This is an interesting video, showing tanks used by the rebels from Misrata:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDJkUrYArvM

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

The MoD put up some details of recent operations in Libya:

quote:

RAF strikes Gaddafi targets in Tripoli
RAF aircraft bombed a key intelligence building in Tripoli and breached the walls of Colonel Gaddafi's command complex this weekend, and inflicted further losses on pro-Gaddafi forces massed at Zlitan and Gharyan.

In the early hours of Sunday morning, 24 July, RAF Tornado and Typhoon aircraft conducted a precision strike on the Central Organisation for Electronic Research (COER). Major General Nick Pope, the Chief of the Defence Staff's Communications Officer, said:

quote:

"Ostensibly an engineering academy, the COER has, in reality, long been a cover for the regime's nefarious activities. Up until Colonel Gaddafi's renunciation of weapons of mass destruction in 2003, the COER was responsible for his long-range missile development programme.

"Intensive surveillance by NATO over the past weeks revealed that the building was still being actively used by his security apparatus to repress the civilian population, and was thus a wholly legitimate target."
Also on Sunday morning, other RAF jets successfully attacked two staging posts near Zlitan being used to muster tanks, rocket artillery and ammunition. Later that afternoon, an armed reconnaissance patrol located and destroyed a regime main battle tank near Gharyan, on the edge of the Djebel Nafousa, south of Tripoli.

On Saturday, 23 July, RAF aircraft used precision guided weapons to breach the walls of Colonel Gaddafi's command complex in central Tripoli.

General Pope said:

quote:

"Gaddafi has for decades hidden from the Libyan people behind these walls. The vast Bab al-Aziziya compound is not just his personal residence, but, more importantly, is also the main headquarters for his regime, with command and control facilities and an army barracks all part of the same fortified site.

"Successive NATO strikes in past weeks have inflicted extensive damage on the military facilities within.

"In the early hours of Saturday morning, RAF Tornado and Typhoon aircraft, supported by allied aircraft, struck the high perimeter walls of the compound, which have for so long been such an unwelcome symbol to the people of Tripoli of Gaddafi's despotic rule.

"Paveway guided bombs scored direct hits in thirteen different places on both the outer and inner perimeter walls along the western side of Bab al-Aziziya. As ever, particular care was taken to ensure no civilian traffic on nearby roads was endangered."

Also on Saturday, RAF jets on patrol near Zlitan successfully struck four buildings which NATO surveillance missions had confirmed were being used as a command and control centre and a staging post for regime troops being mustered for attacks on the people of Libya.

Armed reconnaissance patrols continued in the area throughout the day, and, during Saturday night, RAF aircraft were able to conduct a precision strike on a large ammunition stockpile. In addition, HMS Ocean launched her Army Apache helicopters against a number of military positions between Zlitan and Al Khums, which were successfully engaged using Hellfire missiles.

On Thursday afternoon, 21 July, RAF aircraft patrolling near Zlitan identified and destroyed a self-propelled anti-aircraft gun. During the night, British Army Apache helicopters once again launched a strike mission from HMS Ocean, while other NATO aircraft provided overwatch.

Two buildings being used by regime troops at Al Khums were damaged by Hellfire missiles. This strike was followed up by NATO fixed-wing aircraft in the early hours of Friday morning; RAF jets hit six ammunition storage facilities near Zlitan, and a large building that was being used as a base for multiple rocket launchers threatening Misurata.

In addition, one deployed rocket launcher and two armed trucks were destroyed.

On Friday afternoon, 22 July, further RAF armed reconnaissance patrols successfully engaged one of Gaddafi's tanks and another armed truck, again near Zlitan.

quote:

"Throughout these operations, NATO tanker and surveillance assets provided essential support, including RAF VC10, Tristar, Sentry and Sentinel aircraft."

At sea, the frigate HMS Iron Duke has been relieved on station by her sister ship HMS Sutherland. HMS Bangor continues to provide NATO's maritime task group with a vital mine countermeasures capability, ready to respond to any attempts by the regime to again lay mines off Misurata port.

Since the start of military operations to enforce UNSCR 1973, Royal Navy, Royal Air Force and Army Air Corps precision strikes have destroyed over 710 regime targets engaged in the repression of the Libyan people.

UK missions over Libya are undertaken as part of NATO's Operation UNIFIED PROTECTOR, to enforce UNSCR 1973 and protect Libyan civilians at risk of attack.

UK forces currently deployed on this operation include:

• RAF Tornado and Typhoon aircraft based at Gioia del Colle in Italy
• RAF VC10 and Tristar air-to-air refuelling tankers, based in Sicily, Cyprus and the UK
• RAF Sentry and Sentinel surveillance aircraft, based in Sicily and Cyprus
• HMS Ocean (helicopter carrier)
• HMS Sutherland (Type 23 frigate)
• HMS Bangor (Sandown class minehunter)
• Royal Fleet Auxiliary Fort Rosalie
• British Army Apache attack helicopters
• Fleet Air Arm Sea King helicopters (Airborne Surveillance and Area Control role).

RAF air transport aircraft provide extensive logistic support to the deployed bases in Italy, Sicily and the Sovereign Base Areas in Cyprus.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

These are apparently the mine sweepers being used in and around Brega:

Glad to see they don't have to use sticks anymore.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Brown Moses posted:

This is an interesting video, showing tanks used by the rebels from Misrata:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDJkUrYArvM

It shows how poor the troops they have are. Those guys randomly firing in a vague direction on full auto. Jesus. Anyone else think that after those technicals were almost killed, that sending the tank in alone like that made it a sitting duck?

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Finlander posted:

So, are they planning on trying to shoot down bombers with those things? Although, if that's what they're trying to do, why didn't they deploy them earlier?
This is actually quite worrying, I think.

It's nothing. It's likely that Libyan army still has several intact mobile SAM units. It's the heavier stationary SAM sites that have taken the most beating during the early stages of the campaign, because they cannot relocate and therefore are easy targets for cruise missiles. The problem with these ones is that they're not very effective and as soon as they start up their radars they will light up on Allied radars like Christmas trees. Once the battery's radar vehicle is taken out, the missile launchers are helpless.

It's also not a question of them only being deployed now, probably every Libyan armored brigade has a few. But this is a 1960-70's technology that is very well known by the NATO forces, so it is unlikely that they would do much good. It did well in the Yom Kippur War, but now it's a couple generations old.

For instance, in 1987 during the Chad war the French airforces destroyed a Libyan SA-6 Gainful (NATO desig.)/2K12 Kub (Soviet desig.) site:

"The system was deployed by Libya during the border dispute with Chad and proved a threat for French aircraft, however on January 7, 1987 these were successful in destroying an SA-6 radar site in the Faya Largeau area with SEPECAT Jaguars armed with Martel anti-radiation missiles."

That was 24 years ago. The French are much better equipped and trained against this kind of threat now. So yeah, nothing to worry about.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Brown Moses posted:

These are apparently the mine sweepers being used in and around Brega:

Glad to see they don't have to use sticks anymore.

It's pretty amazing the things the Misratans can turn a Toyota Hi-Lux into these days

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

It's Brega in the East, not anywhere near Misrata.

neamp
Jun 24, 2003
Meanwhile, this is how it's done in Zintan:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAVkJBH0CPk
:stare: How are they still alive?

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

neamp posted:

Meanwhile, this is how it's done in Zintan:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAVkJBH0CPk
:stare: How are they still alive?

Why is there a big antitank mine buried under several smaller anti-personel mines? how did he know he had gotten all of the ones in that hole? and how did he know there was the larger one underneath after picking up all the small ones?

communism bitch
Apr 24, 2009
AP mines were probably set there as an anti-handling measure to kill anybody trying to tamper with the AT device.

communism bitch fucked around with this message at 21:28 on Jul 25, 2011

Paradoxus
Nov 22, 2007
BOCK?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

Jut posted:

Why is there a big antitank mine buried under several smaller anti-personel mines? how did he know he had gotten all of the ones in that hole? and how did he know there was the larger one underneath after picking up all the small ones?

Their could be number of explanations most logically, a mine detector is going to sound different depending on how large and how many mines are being used. Think metal detector, its going to sound different when it finds a small coin vs a big chunk of metal.

neamp
Jun 24, 2003
Notice the big anti tank mine doesn't seem have a fuse installed so probably the small anti personnel mines are supposed to set it off. I suspect they set it up this way because the civilian vehicles used by the rebels are too light to reliably trigger the anti tank mines.

mr. nobody
Sep 25, 2004

Net contents 12 fluid oz.

neamp posted:

Notice the big anti tank mine doesn't seem have a fuse installed so probably the small anti personnel mines are supposed to set it off. I suspect they set it up this way because the civilian vehicles used by the rebels are too light to reliably trigger the anti tank mines.

Is this how things go (layered minelaying) or is this a special gently caress you move by what's left of gaddaffi's military?

pylb
Sep 22, 2010

"The superfluous, a very necessary thing"
Tired of the lies from that SIS plant Brown Moses ? (simply joking)
Here's Aljamahiriya TV's news broadcast for Monday:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xq7rC_4wDro

-edited to link to the english language broadcast-

pylb fucked around with this message at 06:19 on Jul 26, 2011

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

neamp posted:

Notice the big anti tank mine doesn't seem have a fuse installed so probably the small anti personnel mines are supposed to set it off. I suspect they set it up this way because the civilian vehicles used by the rebels are too light to reliably trigger the anti tank mines.

There's a jump cut there. Maybe he just removed the fuse, you know, because you don't move armed mines around. (Then some anti-tank mines are too unsafe to disarm anyway, you are supposed to destroy them with TNT.)

I kind of doubt that you could set off an anti-tank mine with anti-personnel mines set on top of it, at least in a reliable, controlled manner. Of course that doesn't mean that someone wouldn't try it, but still.

Old Hanz
Feb 2, 2003

I am skilled in the arts of war and military tactics, sire.
maybe it was a dramatic reenactment of mine clearing.

Top Hats Monthly
Jun 22, 2011


People are people so why should it be, that you and I should get along so awfully blink blink recall STOP IT YOU POSH LITTLE SHIT
I (shamefully) have had trouble in keeping up with the events, on a percentage scale, how close would Libyan rebels be to securing at least a independent state on a scale of 1-99

Mr. Sunshine
May 15, 2008

This is a scrunt that has been in space too long and become a Lunt (Long Scrunt)

Fun Shoe

Old Hanz posted:

maybe it was a dramatic reenactment of mine clearing.

Yeah, to my highly untrained eye it comes of as, I dunno, some sort of awkward training video or something. I can't understand what they say, but the nonchalant way they handle those mines it sure doesn't look like two guys handling live explosives.

mr. nazi posted:

Is this how things go (layered minelaying) or is this a special gently caress you move by what's left of gaddaffi's military?
We had some basic mine training when I did my military service, and there's definitely a point to layering mines, just not like that. Normally, you'd place anti-personnel mines underneath the anti-tank mine, to blow up anyone who tries to dig it up. Like neamp said, maybe it's some clumsy way of trying to get the anti-tank mine to trigger on infantry/light vehicles.

Patter Song
Mar 26, 2010

Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.
Fun Shoe

Top Hats Monthly posted:

I (shamefully) have had trouble in keeping up with the events, on a percentage scale, how close would Libyan rebels be to securing at least a independent state on a scale of 1-99

The rebels have no interest in secession. The question of how likely they are to win control of Libya, and that question in part becomes "how long will it be until NATO gets tired of the operation?" At the moment, Qaddafi has decent stretches of the empty lands of southwestern Libya, the city of Sirt in north central Libya, and Tripoli and points west along the Western Libyan coastline. The rebels control over half of Libya, but the bad news is that (with the possible exception of Tripoli), most of the stuff remaining under Qaddafi's control is legitimately loyal to him (especially his hometown Sirt).

I'd put the rebel's chances of victory at 70%, 90% if you count a negotiated settlement that grants Qaddafi amnesty to stay in Libya unmolested still a "rebel victory."

Tripoli, being a fifth of Libya population-wise, is going to be the most difficult part of this for the rebels. How are they going to crack this nut?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Live Blogs July 26th
Guardian
Feb17.info

Misrata
Video report from AJE of lawyers gathering evidence of war crimes in Misrata.

quote:

Rebel-held Misrata was running short of fuel on Monday as a fire raged at a storage depot hit by a rocket from Libyan government forces.

More than a day after the strike late on Sunday, thick plumes of black smoke still rose into the sky and choked much of the city, sparking panic-buying by civilians and risking shortages for the rebel forces holding the cut-off town.

Most petrol stations closed, leaving drivers facing lengthy queues in the summer heat at the few that stayed open, with priority given to vehicles used by rebels on the frontline and by the emergency services.

“Patience is good, thank God,” said motorist Ismail Mohammed. “We have long queues for petrol now but most people haven’t said anything.”

quote:

The BBC's James Reynolds, in Zlitan, is sceptical of Libyan government claims that seven medics were killed in a Nato air strike.

quote:

We were not able to find out the names of the dead. Nor were we taken to hospital to see their bodies … Officials told us that three people were still trapped underneath the wreckage. We were unable to get a clear idea as to whether or not the officials believed that the missing people were alive or dead … The few minutes of the rescue effort that we were able to see differed from those that I have seen in other parts of the world.

Bulldozers drove through the wreckage without appearing to check whether or not they were coming up against any bodies or survivors.

In the short time that we were there, we did not come across the distinctive smell of dead bodies decomposing in the heat. Nor did we see rescuers stop and listen for shouts from any survivors in the wreckage.

Tripoli

quote:

A Russian Emergencies Ministry aircraft will deliver humanitarian aid to the Libyan capital of Tripoli on Tuesday, a ministry spokesman said.

The Ilyushin Il-76 plane carrying 36.2 tons of canned milk, baby food, sugar and rice took off from an airport near Moscow on Tuesday morning.

The shipment is the fourth planeload of humanitarian aid sent by Russia to Libyans affected by fighting between forces loyal to Libyan strongman Col. Muammar Gaddafi and rebel forces.

quote:

A U.N. fact-finding mission says the part of Libya under Moammar Gadhafi’s control is beset by food, cash and fuel shortages despite a veneer of normalcy.

The United Nations issued a statement late on Monday saying its weeklong mission to Libya has identified fuel shortages, rising food prices and a strained medical system as some of the challenges facing the government.

Diplomacy

quote:

Britain has backed a Libyan rebel offer to allow Muammar Gaddafi to remain in the country in return for relinquishing power. Foreign secretary William Hague said: "What happens to Gaddafi is ultimately a question for the Libyans. It is for the Libyan people to determine their own future. Whatever happens, Gaddafi must leave power."

As this blog reported on Monday Libyan rebel leader Mustafa Abdel Jalil told the Wall Street Journal that Gaddafi and his family could stay in the country if they gave up power.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 10:26 on Jul 26, 2011

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Lastest NATO report

quote:

Key Hits 25 JULY:
In the vicinity of Brega: 1 Military Facility, 5 Armoured Vehicles, 2 Tanks, 11 Light Military Vehicles.
In the vicinity of Tripoli: 2 Command and Control Nodes, 2 Anti-Aircraft Weapon, 3 Multiple Rocket Launchers, 1 Military Vehicle.
In the vicinity of Waddan:1 Ammunition Storage Facility.
In the vicinity of Zlitan: 3 Command and Control Node, 1 Military Armoured Vehicle Storage Facility, 2 Armed Vehicles.
In the vicinity of Al Khums: 1 Military Vehicle Storage Facility.
In the vicinity of Gharyan: 2 Armoured Fighting Vehicle.

Seems that after a few days of quiet in Brega they've started hitting target near there again.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp
Anymore news out of Brega? Have the rebels won? lost? still fighting?

Rosscifer
Aug 3, 2005

Patience

Patter Song posted:

The rebels have no interest in secession. The question of how likely they are to win control of Libya, and that question in part becomes "how long will it be until NATO gets tired of the operation?" At the moment, Qaddafi has decent stretches of the empty lands of southwestern Libya, the city of Sirt in north central Libya, and Tripoli and points west along the Western Libyan coastline. The rebels control over half of Libya, but the bad news is that (with the possible exception of Tripoli), most of the stuff remaining under Qaddafi's control is legitimately loyal to him (especially his hometown Sirt).

I'd put the rebel's chances of victory at 70%, 90% if you count a negotiated settlement that grants Qaddafi amnesty to stay in Libya unmolested still a "rebel victory."

Tripoli, being a fifth of Libya population-wise, is going to be the most difficult part of this for the rebels. How are they going to crack this nut?

From what I've read, most of the defections suffered by Gadaffi's forces have happened in urban areas. In desert trench warfare Gadaffi's forces can shoot people who try to flee, but in an urban environment soldiers can melt away into the city and their morale is lovely. The regime will collapse after a little urban fighting.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Jut posted:

Anymore news out of Brega? Have the rebels won? lost? still fighting?

Last I heard the minefields were causing major problems, so they can't secure the area until they are all gone. Meanwhile, Gaddafi troops lay mines further up the road to Sirte.

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Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Speaking of land mines:

quote:

Land mines slow Libyan rebels’ march toward Tripol
KIKLA, Libya — First Milad Saadi and his men pray. Then they walk into a mine field.

Saadi carries a poker; it looks like a car antenna. The sappers have an old metal detector, the kind used to look for lost coins at the beach, but they don’t use it much; the batteries are weak.

They wear no body armor, no helmets. They dig in the dust with their hands.

Twenty paces from the roadside, they find their first land mine, then a second, a third. They twist off the plungers that would trigger the devices and toss the bland, beige, deadly disks into a blue bucket. The mines are the size of a doughnut.

In less than an hour, they have found 125 Brazilian-made T-AB-1 antipersonnel mines.

“Stick around, we will find a thousand in this field today,” said Bashir Ghourish, one of the seven-man demining team from nearby Zintan.

As rebels slowly press toward Tripoli, they are discovering ever more extensive mine fields laid by forces loyal to Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi in and around civilian areas. The number of mines unearthed by the rebels is quickly growing from hundreds to thousands, as opposition fighters move into towns abandoned by retreating Gaddafi troops.

“Over the past weeks, NATO has witnessed an increase in indiscriminate mining and the escalating use of force by pro-Gaddafi forces,” in both Brega, an oil port 482 miles east of Tripoli, and the western mountains, said a NATO official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of alliance ground rules.

Opposition forces battling to enter the oil refinery at Brega have been slowed by mines. Col. Ahmed Banni, Libya’s Transitional National Council military leader, told reporters that rebels deactivated thousands of land mines last week to secure a possible route into Brega.

Rebel military commanders at Kabaw in the western mountains say five days ago they watched Gaddafi troops laying mines around towns of Ghazaya, Tikut and Ruwas near the Tunisian border.

“It feels like there are reports of new fieldsevery week now,” said Sidney Kwiram, a consultant for the group Human Rights Watch in Libya.

“In each of the front lines we have visited around the country, the Gaddafi forces have used land mines near their troop positions,” Kwiram said. “These mine fields may be flanking troop positions one day, but the next day they are the reason that civilians cannot return home.”

So far, six people have been wounded in mine blasts here in the western mountains, when the vehicles they were driving in struck one of the devices. Three have been hospitalized.

Sappers working here in the Kikla area found 1,500 mines in one field, 196 in another. On Thursday, they returned to a grove of olive trees and shuffled through the dust, searching the ground for disturbed dirt that would signal a buried mine.

The Gaddafi forces were barracked in a boy scout camp nearby, and the mine team leader Saadi said the government soldiers laid the mines to protect themselves from attack.

In two hours here, they found more than 300 antipersonnel mines and 18 Chinese-made Type-72SP anti-vehicle mines.

“It is part of Gaddafi’s scorched-earth strategy,” Saadi said. “A kid might step on it, an old man, an animal. Anything that moves. It is an unimaginable thing. It’s a war crime.”

Saadi held up one of the antipersonnel mines. “You see it is plastic, with the explosive inside? It would last in the ground for centuries.”

Saadi and his team display little of the boisterous bravado of the younger rebels.

“This is a job for old men, quiet and careful,” said Abdul Hakim, who usually teaches high school Arabic.

“It is my duty to clear out these fields, for the children, for people, no matter even if it is dangerous,” Hakim said. “You have to calm down, and take a deep breath, go slow, because you know, here your first mistake is your last mistake.”

Correspondent Michael Birnbaum contributed to this report from Berlin.

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