Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

Yeah. I remember back in Gulf War I, when Saddam started chucking Scuds at Israel. The US deployed Patriot arrays into Israel and there was quite the kerfuffle about it. Partly because they were pretty unproven at the time and some Scuds got through anyway, and partly because it was OMG MISSILE DEFENSE which was, at the time, still a hot-button issue. Bush Sr. was Reagan's former VP and star wars had been a big deal and while the Wall may have come down, Russia still wasn't too drat happy about ongoing development and testing of missile defense systems.

They still aren't, come to think of it, but defense against shorter-range ballistics like Scuds is kind of not that big a deal any more I guess.

In any case the scenarios where the US would deploy missile defense in Libya seem pretty unlikely. It'd be easy to argue that it's for the defense of civilians, but it'd also take soldiers on the ground to operate them I assume, and they're really only useful deployed in the way of where the scuds are being aimed, and given how many fronts there are, it'd be pretty easy for Ghaddafi to just shoot them somewhere else; e.g., you put Patriots in Benghazi, and he shoots them at Misurata instead, or Nafusa, or Zawiya, or whatever.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 03:13

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# ? May 21, 2024 20:46

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

It's Spin magazine, so don't expect any astute commentary, but it's an interesting article about revolutionary hip-hop in Tunisia.

http://www.spin.com/articles/tunisias-hip-hop-revolution

# ? Aug 16, 2011 03:18

Zeroisanumber: Oct 23, 2010; Nap Ghost

farraday posted:

I said where it was targeted, not that it was targeted at the ship. Scuds aren't that accurate. A ship in harbor at Benghazi would have a much better chance of shooting down a scud aimed at Benghazi then one just sitting somewhere in the Gulf of Sidra.

Bit of a moot point though. We're not going to send an AEGIS cruiser anywhere near Libya unless Quaddafi starts doing something totally insane like threatening to deploy WMDs.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 03:42

Zeroisanumber: Oct 23, 2010; Nap Ghost

Leperflesh posted:

Yeah. I remember back in Gulf War I, when Saddam started chucking Scuds at Israel. The US deployed Patriot arrays into Israel and there was quite the kerfuffle about it. Partly because they were pretty unproven at the time and some Scuds got through anyway, and partly because it was OMG MISSILE DEFENSE which was, at the time, still a hot-button issue. Bush Sr. was Reagan's former VP and star wars had been a big deal and while the Wall may have come down, Russia still wasn't too drat happy about ongoing development and testing of missile defense systems.

They still aren't, come to think of it, but defense against shorter-range ballistics like Scuds is kind of not that big a deal any more I guess.

In any case the scenarios where the US would deploy missile defense in Libya seem pretty unlikely. It'd be easy to argue that it's for the defense of civilians, but it'd also take soldiers on the ground to operate them I assume, and they're really only useful deployed in the way of where the scuds are being aimed, and given how many fronts there are, it'd be pretty easy for Ghaddafi to just shoot them somewhere else; e.g., you put Patriots in Benghazi, and he shoots them at Misurata instead, or Nafusa, or Zawiya, or whatever.

IIRC, the Patriots didn't manage to intercept much of anything back in 1991, and that wasn't surprising considering that the system was designed as an AA platform, not an Anti-Missile battery. Postwar analysis by MIT showed an intercept rate of 0-10%.

The system has been totally re-designed since then and supposedly is quite good at knocking down missiles in-theater now, but I don't think that there's been much testing under combat conditions.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 03:47

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Video report from Brega:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMA9mA_os6I

# ? Aug 16, 2011 08:23

major_calamity: Apr 21, 2010

Hexium posted:

An Aegis Destroy might be able to.

The Arleigh Burke class destroyers out there should be carrying this, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RIM-161_Standard_Missile_3, which is designed to provide fleet anti-ballistic missile capability, so they should be able to protect coastal areas with it. The ships are in the area but none of them have been assigned to Unified Protector though.

HMS Liverpool, same class as HMS Gloucester that shot down those silkworm missiles, wouldn't really have much hope shooting down a SCUD, they just fall too drat fast.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 08:40

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

How big of a threat really are the SCUDs? The launchers themselves are giant gently caress-all targets, even larger than a mobile anti-aircraft or these GRAD launchers that NATOs been blowing up; the launch procedure takes something like an hour at minimum to pull off; and the accuracy on the ones Qaddafi has is something like half a kilometer. The one they shot off today was within a third of the effective range of the SCUD-B and still only managed to hit open desert.

The Libyans supposedly have some North Korean Rodongs, which have a 1000km range and a CEP radius of 2km to 4km. With those, in addition to any point in Libya, he could hit Tunisia, Malta, Sardinia, Sicily, or the heel of Italy, which would do nothing but aggravate NATO and likely escalate their involvement into an unwinnable situation for Qaddafi.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 08:53

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Here's another article about the rebels progress:

quote:

Libya rebels show new discipline in push to Tripoli
At a checkpoint on the road leading south out of Zawiyah, a rebel fighter on Sunday sat at a table with a sheet of paper listing suspected agents working for Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.

Anyone passing whose documents matched a name on the list was likely to end up in a makeshift prison attached to a nearby clinic where about 15 government soldiers were already held.

For the rebels who made a dramatic advance to Zawiyah, 50 km (30 miles) west of the Libyan capital, at the weekend, such evidence of organisation could be the difference between ousting Gaddafi and being forced into yet another humiliating retreat.

After a six-month-old conflict when inexperience and ill-discipline undermined their offensives time and again, rebels have formed themselves into a more organised fighting force.

That organisation will be crucial if they are to consolidate their latest advances which allow them to encircle Gaddafi's stronghold in Tripoli and, they hope, force his capitulation.

"The rebels have a reputation for being chronically over-optimistic and they have to be able to hold their gains, which they haven't always succeeded in doing," said Shashank Joshi, an analyst with the Royal United Services Institute in London.

"The way they fight now is going to determine how successful they will be."

HARDENED FIGHTERS

The last time the rebels made rapid territorial advances was early in the conflict in the east of Libya. Then rag-tag groups of leaderless volunteers would dash across the desert, only to pull back just as quickly when Gaddafi's troops started firing.

The rebels who took Zawiyah, many of them hardened by months of fighting in the Nafusa mountain range to the south, were a different proposition.

"During the previous uprising the young people like me, we just attacked on our own free will," said Nagi, a 31-year-old rebel fighter from Zawiyah.

"But now when our commanders speak we do as we are told and we have tactics, it is not just a free assault without thinking."

Rebels are now formed into units, mostly based on their native towns or villages, and each unit has a commander. That may be standard battlecraft, but for the sometimes anarchic rebel movement, it is a novelty.

In contrast to previous offensives, the rebels do not waste ammunition. There is little celebratory gunfire.

The rebels also seem to have at least a rudimentary idea about military tactics.

"We are going to go to Tripoli very methodically," said Murad Badda, a 39-year-old shopkeeper-turned rebel fighter who was driving around the town on Monday in a pickup truck with a group of other fighters."

"We will do what we did during our offensive from the Western mountains. We will attack one area, clear it and then move forward very carefully."

There was still some bravado.

"We don't expect a huge amount of resistance. We believe that Gaddafi's men think they're fighting a losing cause. That's why they've been retreating during our offensive," Badda said.

There remains a risk the rebels could be forced to retreat. Pro-Gaddafi forces on the eastern edge of Zawiyah were on Monday firing Russian-made Grad rockets and mortars at rebel positions, though there was no sign they were gaining ground.

But the rebels are better placed than their comrades who were put to flight in eastern Libya a few months back, said John Drake, senior risk consultant with London-based consultancy AKE.

"The difference now ... is that the rebels emerging from the Nafusa mountains appear to have acquired quite a significant amount of weaponry."

"They were struggling a few weeks ago but not only do they now have greater amounts of weaponry, many of them also have quite high morale," he said.

COORDINATED FIREPOWER

Another element of the rebels' improved battlefield performance is a new ability to coordinate.

The attack on Zawiyah was carried out by a combined force of rebels from the town itself, and from Zintan and other towns in the Western Mountains which in the past have treated each other with suspicion.

While the main force pushed towards Zawiyah, another was attacking Gaddafi forces in Garyan to the southeast and a third was encircling a government garrison in Tiji, to the southwest.

Those operations meant that the forces that could have cut off the rebel supply lines to Zawiyah were pinned down and unable to move.

"We have better cooperation between rebels ... than ever before," said Amin Mustapha, 40, a rebel in Zawiyah. "This time we all feel very united and it will help us when we try to get Tripoli."

The killing last month of Abdel Fattah Younes, the opposition's military commander, was unlikely to have disrupted preparations. Fighters in the west of Libya have a large degree of autonomy from the rebel leadership in the eastern city of Benghazi, where Younes was based.

The coordination most vital to the rebels though is with NATO warplanes. The alliance says it is attacking solely to protect civilians under a U.N. mandate.

"We are not coordinating our strikes with the rebels. We are not clearing the way for the rebel advances. It's the other way around: Gaddafi is moving his forces into the open to respond to rebel advances and we are reacting to that," a NATO official said.

However, along the route that took the rebels from the Western Mountains to Zawiyah was a trail of buildings and tanks which had been destroyed by NATO air strikes. When rebels attacked pro-Gaddafi forces in Garyan on Sunday, NATO struck too, sending plumes of smoke into the air.

"They (NATO) are not picking targets at random, or simply to protect the civilian population, they are picking targets in order to help consolidate rebel gains," analyst Joshi said.

One rebel from the Western Mountains told Reuters a group of intelligence operatives from a NATO member state had set up a coordination centre in the rebel-held town of Nalut, near the border with Tunisia, though it was not possible to confirm that.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 08:54

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

CNN report on the reality of reporting from Tripoli
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufi5oD_mWTo
Latest NATO report

quote:

Sorties conducted 15 AUGUST: 127
Strike sorties conducted 15 AUGUST: 49
Key Hits 15 AUGUST:
In the vicinity of Al Zawiaya: 3 Tanks, 1 Armed Vehicle, 1 Military Vehicle.
In the vicinity of Al Khums: 1 Military Storage Facility.
In the vicinity of Brega: 4 Multiple Rocket Launchers.
In the vicinity of Tripoli: 1 Surface to Air Missile Trans/Loader Vehicle, 2 Surface to Air Missile Systems, 1 Radar, 2 Tanks.
In the vicinity of Misratah: 1 Multiple Rocket Launcher.
In the vicinity of Waddan: 1 Ammo Storage Facility.
In the vicinity of Zlitan: 1 Military Facility, 2 Multiple Rocket Launchers.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 09:16

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

AJE Inside Story asks who is in control of the Libyan opposition?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hih80SVP4ZI
Here's a link to NATO's live press conference starting at 1200 GMT
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/events_67375.htm

# ? Aug 16, 2011 10:30

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

quote:

ANALYSIS-Fight or flee: decision time for Libya's Gaddafi
The battle to control Libya has entered its final phase when Muammar Gaddafi must make a choice: to seek a negotiated exit or to defend his capital to the last bullet.

Rebels with support from NATO warplanes have, over the past 48 hours, taken key towns around Gaddafi's stronghold in Tripoli in a dramatic series of advances which cut the city off from supplies of fuel and food.

Rebel offensives have, in the past, turned into headlong retreats. But if they hold their ground, the end of Gaddafi's 41-year rule will be closer than at any time since the conflict began six months ago.

A U.S. official said that for the first time in the conflict, government forces on Sunday fired a Scud missile -- an act that was pointless from a military point of view but signalled the desperation of pro-Gaddafi forces.

"The Libyan regime may or may not collapse forthwith but it now looks like it will happen sooner or later," said Daniel Korski, a fellow at the European Council for Foreign Relations.

He added: "The manner of its collapse, however, and the method of the rebel takeover will be just as important as the conduct of the war."

Flushed by their success in getting so close to Tripoli, some rank-and-file rebels on Monday spoke of attacking the capital next. But analysts said that will not be the favoured option for rebel commanders.

UNWANTED BATTLE

Gaddafi will throw all the men and weapons he has left into a defence of the capital, civilian casualties in urban fighting will be high, and sections of the population in Tripoli are likely to oppose the rebels.

Even if Gaddafi's opponents were able to win that fight, the bloodshed would create grievances and vendettas which could make the capital -- and maybe even the country -- ungovernable.

"Any fight for Tripoli can be expected to be extremely bloody," said David Hartwell, North Africa and Middle East analyst at IHS Jane's, a defence and security consultancy,

"My guess is the strategy is to isolate the capital and start applying pressure ... They (the rebels) seem to be trying to cut the links to the capital, one assumes with the aim of not having to assault the capital."

But will that approach work? Encircling Tripoli and cutting off supplies could produce any one of three outcomes, or a combination of the three.

Starved of fuel and unable to bring in more weapons and reinforcements, elements of Gaddafi's security forces in Tripoli may decide the best way to save themselves is to lay down their arms or cross over and join the rebels.

Fractures in Gaddafi's security apparatus could be the signal for the second outcome: Gaddafi's underground opponents launch an uprising from within the city.

Representatives of the clandestine opposition have told Reuters they are waiting for the right moment to begin a revolt. Some of them have weapons.

It will take time though before Tripoli is ripe for an uprising, said Shashank Joshi, an analyst with the Royal United Services Institute in London.

"It is not on the edge of a cusp of falling and it's entirely possible that many people in Tripoli are not really aware of what has happened at Zawiyah. So it may not yet bring us to the tipping point."

GADDAFI'S CHOICE

The third possibility is that Gaddafi will decide to negotiate an exit deal. That would possibly involve him and his family going into exile in a state which will not hand him over for prosecution to the International Criminal Court.

People who know him say Gaddafi -- beneath his eccentric image -- is a pragmatist who will cut a deal if that is what it takes to save the lives of his family.

But they also say this will not happen until he is convinced he can no longer win. His spokesman on Sunday denied there were any negotiations on Gaddafi's departure.

"If he is going to try to strike a deal he will leave it until the last minute," said Hartwell of IHS Janes. "He still thinks he has something to fight for."

The worst case scenario for the rebels and their Western backers is that the strategy of strangling Gaddafi's capital will not dislodge him. In this event, there will be a battle for Tripoli and the only thing certain then is that there will be huge loss of life.

"It would not be surprising if Gaddafi were to go out with all guns blazing so long as no deal is on the table and he does not have an exit strategy," said Anthony Skinner, an analyst with risk advisory firm Maplecroft.

"The colonel may booby trap Tripoli and loyalists may also put up a fight to the death.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 11:26

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

quote:

Why Gaddafi's Grip On Power Looks So Shaky
Predicting the end of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi has often turned out to be foolish, or premature. But what can be said with some certainly is that his 41-year grip on power is shakier than ever before.

For most of the past four decades he has been an international pariah, but he has survived.

President Ronald Reagan called him a "mad dog" and ordered the US military to bomb Tripoli.

Libya's involvement in the Lockerbie bombing led to a decade of international sanctions, and when the UN authorised military action earlier this year to assist those fighting to overthrow him, many western leaders believed he would be forced to flee the country within weeks.

Five months later he is still issuing defiant messages to his people urging them to fight.

But is this a man who knows the noose is gradually tightening, or does he genuinely believe that the setbacks his forces have suffered in recent days are only temporary?

What has changed dramatically is Tripoli's ability to bring supplies to a city which was already running short of fuel and food.

The main coastal route to Tunisia, 180km to the west, has now been blocked by rebel advances in at least two places.

Zawiyah, one of the major towns on the route, and only 50km from the capital, is still being fought over - but government forces have lost control of it.

Further west, Surman is also in rebel hands, and there is fighting in nearby Sabrata.

With the road to and from Tripoli now blocked, the transportation of fuel and goods has been halted. On Saturday the border crossing at Ras Jdir was choked with traffic.

I watched a convoy of two dozen heavily laden trucks cross into Libya and head for the capital.

I do not know if they made it, because less than an hour later my own journey into Tripoli was halted by gunfire around Zawiyah. Gaddafi troops forced a minibus driven by government officials to turn back because of the fighting, and I was deported back to Tunisia.

There was still evidence that many towns along the route are still loyal to the regime. Green flags and bunting were draped over telegraph wires at every town along the route.

But there were also clear signs of the effect the war is having. In an oil-rich state, many petrol stations were closed; their entrances blocked by ropes or rocks, indicating that they were out of business. Those that were open had long queues of stationary cars outside, hoping to fill up.

The government's attempts to pass off the renewed battle for Zawiyah as a minor skirmish have failed; they can no longer bring reporters in and out of the capital.

By their own admission, the road is not safe. Advances from the south and the east mean that Tripoli is now surrounded.

But the often disorganised and poorly equipped rebels do not necessarily have the ability to hold their positions and mount a true siege of the city.

Territory has been won and lost before. But after weeks of an apparent stalemate, the sudden surge has raised their hopes that an end to the civil war may be in sight.

It may be that they do not have to fight their way into Tripoli; regimes facing defeat often collapse from within as officials recognise their position is futile and opt to save themselves rather than their boss.

Every apparent defection is seized upon as evidence that this is beginning to happen.

The interior minister Nassr al Mabrouk Abdullah and nine members of his family flew into Egypt on a private plane.

Official government spokesman Moussa Ibrahim didn�t confirm the defection, but claimed the minister had been under a lot of personal pressure and had been �targeted� by foreign agencies to persuade him to leave the country.

The National Transitional Council (NTC) believes he has fled a regime in crisis.

Other ministers have travelled outside the country, but reportedly they have been in negotiations with representatives of the rival NTC in the Tunisian resort of Djerba.

The UN peace envoy is also in Tunisia, and though Abdel Elah al Khatib has spent months trying to broker a ceasefire and peace deal, the timing of this latest mission could be significant.

But Colonel Gaddafi and his supporters are not beaten yet, and demonstrated that they can still deploy new weapons in their arsenal.

For the first time a Scud missile was launched. They are notoriously inaccurate and this one landed 50 miles away from its likely target in Brega, but it shows that Nato still has more targets to destroy despite more than 7,000 strike sorties since it began bombing on March 31.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 12:26

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Update from Zeina Khodr

quote:

heavy clashes in Zawiyah
gaddafi forces firing grad rockets into many areas of #Zawiyah civilians fleeing
shelling is continuous in #Zawiyah .. The opposition fighting back ... Battles in martyrs square
gaddafi snipers slowing opposition advance in #Zawiyah
we saw a rocket hit hotel Jawhara in center of #Zawiyah . Opposition trying to take out gaddafi snipers in hotel

# ? Aug 16, 2011 15:34

Paradox Personified: Mar 15, 2010; SoroScrew

Xandu posted:

It's Spin magazine, so don't expect any astute commentary, but it's an interesting article about revolutionary hip-hop in Tunisia.

http://www.spin.com/articles/tunisias-hip-hop-revolution

Thank you thank you, I live for this stuff. Time to add to the collection! I wonder if any nasheed singers are involved..

# ? Aug 16, 2011 16:07

How are u: May 19, 2005; by Azathoth

Thank you Brown Moses for being such a superb source of information. I know I'd never have taken the time to keep myself so thoroughly informed if I'd had to do it alone. As the Libyan revolution looks to be entering some kind of vague 'final phase' I've been reflecting back on the last 6 months, and its been a wild ride.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 16:42

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Jonny Hallam of the BBC just tweeted this

quote:

#BBC: Pro-Gad Government in #Tripoli has admitted that is has lost control of #Gharyan to #Rebels.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 16:48

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Al-Assad has been shelling a Palestinian camp in Latakia for the past few days, forcing at least 5000 refugees to flee. He better never claim to be the leader of the resistance again.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14533967 posted:

Thousands of Palestinian refugees have been forced to flee a camp in the Syrian port of Latakia amid shelling by government troops, the UN says.

A spokesman for the United Nations Relief and Works agency (Unrwa) told the BBC that more than 5,000 of the 10,000 refugees were on the move.

He said at least four people had died, urging immediate access to the site.

Some 30 people have reportedly died in Latakia in a three-day military attack. Syria says it is tackling gangs.

On Monday, there were also reports of a clampdown in the capital Damascus, with people being arrested randomly in the Jobar district.

urkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu warned Syria that military operations against protesters must stop "immediately and unconditionally".

Ankara, a former close ally of Damascus, has been increasingly frustrated with its crackdown of the unrest.

The Palestinian authorities urged the Syrian government to safeguard the lives of Palestinian refugees.

In Washington, White House spokesman John Carney said that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad must "cease the systematic violence, mass arrests and the outright murder of his own people."

More than 1,700 people have reportedly died and more than 30,000 have been detained in the five-month uprising against President Assad's rule.

'Alarming' situation
On Monday, Unrwa spokesman Christopher Gunness told the BBC that more than 5,000 Palestinian refugees from the camp in Latakia's al-Ramel district and surrounding areas had already fled.

"We have no idea where these people are, we have no idea how many of them are wounded, are dying, are elderly, are women, are children," he said.

He said that at least four people were confirmed dead and nearly 20 were injured.

Mr Gunness added that some refugees had been told by the Syrian government to leave the camp.

He described the situation in the camp as "alarming", calling on Damascus to grant Unwra immediate access to the site to establish "what is going on".

However, similar appeals in the past have been ignored in the past by the Syrian government, the BBC's Jim Muir in Beirut says.

Mr Gunness also said that reports from the site suggested that the Syrian military was using tanks and gunboats.

A Syrian military official on Monday denied as "absolutely baseless" reports that gunboats had fired on Latakia, Syria's official Sana news agency reported.

Activists on the ground said later on Monday that Syrian troops had taken control of the Ramel district.
...

Also, Michel Kilo, a very famous Syrian dissident, wrote an op-ed in As-Safir a few days. I can't really understand it, but he seems to be appealing to fellow Christians, many/most of whom support al-Assad, to listen to reason and distance themselves from the regime.

http://www.assafir.com/Article.aspx...DCu1UY.facebook

# ? Aug 16, 2011 16:58

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

This CNN article is a good read, it basically talks about what its like to report from Tripoli, and other related difficulties.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 18:23

Slantedfloors: Apr 29, 2008; Wait, What?

Young Freud posted:

How big of a threat really are the SCUDs?

They're as dangerous as a big rocket with a bomb on the end can be.

But they're also 40 years old, probably ill-maintained, and when working correctly they regularly miss their intended target by up to a kilometre. At this point in the conflict, they're really no more dangerous than the already existing random artillery shelling. Changing up the method by which you bombard cities doesn't really change the threat level.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 19:07

Burt Sexual: Jan 26, 2006; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS; Switchblade Switcharoo

Aren't the payloads much larger so if they accidentally hit the intended target they'd take out a 100 or so people versus 2 or 3? Shooting at city centers would probably be a terror tactic anyways right?

# ? Aug 16, 2011 19:19

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Slantedfloors posted:

They're as dangerous as a big rocket with a bomb on the end can be.

But they're also 40 years old, probably ill-maintained, and when working correctly they regularly miss their intended target by up to a kilometre. At this point in the conflict, they're really no more dangerous than the already existing random artillery shelling. Changing up the method by which you bombard cities doesn't really change the threat level.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 19:33

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Slantedfloors posted:

They're as dangerous as a big rocket with a bomb on the end can be.

But they're also 40 years old, probably ill-maintained, and when working correctly they regularly miss their intended target by up to a kilometre. At this point in the conflict, they're really no more dangerous than the already existing random artillery shelling. Changing up the method by which you bombard cities doesn't really change the threat level.

He also probably doesn't have too many of them since there would be no reason for the coalition not to destroy as many as they could in airstrikes. Fixed launch sites are pretty much right out which leaves the mobile ones. Given various factors like wear, capture, and destruction during the 6 months or so of air attacks, the chance he has more than a bear handful of mobile launchers, at best, seems very low.

Without the preparations the Iraqis put into launching the drat things quickly, it would seem unlikely they will play any role now that their use has crystallized the need to prevent their use.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 19:51

ApathyGifted: Aug 30, 2004; Tomorrow?

Could we stop treating the name Scud like it's an acronym? It's just a NATO reporting name, like Flanker or Bear.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 19:55

Taerkar: Dec 7, 2002; kind of into it, really

Rocket-based weapons like the Scud have a lot more destructive power than artillery rounds, especially on a per-shot basis, but they don't have the barrage ability unless used en-masse.

The earlier comparison to the V-2 is an apt one. They're (ineffectual) terror weapons, not strategic weapons.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 19:58

Slantedfloors: Apr 29, 2008; Wait, What?

Darth123123 posted:

Aren't the payloads much larger so if they accidentally hit the intended target they'd take out a 100 or so people versus 2 or 3? Shooting at city centers would probably be a terror tactic anyways right?

The payloads are larger than those from traditional artillery or the Grad rockets that have been used before, but there's also going to be a whole hell of a lot less of them coming down - best estimate is he has less than 500 total, not counting the ones that have degraded over 40 years or will fly off and impact absolutely nothing in the middle of the desert.

They're also pretty much sitting ducks. Total firing time is something like an hour to do properly, during which they're completely exposed.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 20:00

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

New AJE report, rebels advance in Zawiyah (hurrah!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnN723kdjzw
This video is apparently from the attack on Tiji, including Truck Tank!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--GoK5UkYdw

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 20:11 on Aug 16, 2011

# ? Aug 16, 2011 20:09

Zeroisanumber: Oct 23, 2010; Nap Ghost

Giant guns bolted onto pick-up trucks, tooling around in the desert shooting at the government, stealing tanks and shouting "God is Great!" These guys are just a bikini model and a six-pack away from Redneck Heaven.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 20:22

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

I've identified the locations filmed in the video from Tiji on this map, confirming it is filmed in Tiji.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 20:32

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

BBC Radio 4 audio report, saying the government has admitted losing Gharyan.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 21:00

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

This is a good map, I proved this video was definitly filmed in Sabha:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuHhNfeWiSc
See it plotted on this map.

[edit] Here's another video from the same event, it helps confirm the location:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIKjBcksnYo
According to a guy on Twitter he saw the same video a few weeks ago.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 22:44 on Aug 16, 2011

# ? Aug 16, 2011 21:42

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Great account of the battle for Sabratha:

quote:

The Fight for Sabratha
Only about thirty volunteers of the three hundred strong Martyr Wasam Qaliyah Brigade are gathered around former Libyan army general Senussi Mohamed as he outlines the plan for the liberation of the coastal city of Sabratha, about 90 kilometers north from Qaddafi�s forces. Crouched in a pleasant pine grove in Jafara Valley, just north of Zintan, they listen intently. This morning, they struck their camp in Jadu, in the western mountains, to join the Sabratha Brigade and volunteers from other cities in what�s planned as a big operation for this Lilliputian war, where groups of 100 or 200 barely trained volunteers skirmish in the streets of rundown cities.

Sabratha is directly ahead, but the men's main objective is moving westward along the coastline to liberate their coastal hometown of Zwara, a busy port of 47,000 inhabitants, all ethnic Amazigh or Berber. About 100 kilometers west of Tripoli, Zwara is the first town of consequence in Libya as one enters from the Tunisian border, another 65 kilometers west.

Zwara is historically hostile to the Libyan dictatorship, which suppressed its distinctive language and culture. The townsfolk rebelled against Qaddafi on February 18th and remained free until March 14th when Qaddafi�s forces invaded the city with 700 men and 13 tanks. The government forces used Grad missiles and other anti-armor and anti-aircraft weapons, but the city�s fighters killed 16 of them and seized 300 weapons. Qaddafi�s forces killed seven locals and in the ensuing months have jailed more than 200, including women. There are allegations of rape as well.

Many of the inhabitants of Zwara fled to Tunisia, but a lot of men of fighting age went to Jadu, about 120 kilometers south in the western mountains, to train to retake their city. The inhabitants of Jadu are also ethnic Amazigh, and for the Amazigh this war is about two types of independence: not only freedom for Libya, but freedom to maintain their distinct ethnic identity. For decades, Qaddafi banned the teaching, broadcast or speaking of Amazigh, an ancient indigenous language written in an alphabet that looks like pictographs, called tefenagh. Children could not officially receive or use Amazigh names. Here, all the men speak in Amazigh.

There�s some talk of sleeping in their own beds in a night or two. All talk of the impending end of the war. It was reported just twelve hours ago that Qaddafi�s police fled into Tunisia. (They were later replaced and Qaddafi regained control of the border.) Two days earlier, revolutionary brigades captured the larger town of Zawiyah, 60 kilometers to the east and 40 kilometers from Tripoli. They also took Gharian, the largest town in the western mountains, an operation in which about 20 men of the Zwara brigade participated. Both were strategically significant actions. Controlling Gharian means cutting off Tripoli's access to Algeria�where Qaddafi is said to get troops and munitions�and controlling Zawiyah cuts off Tripoli's fuel and food supply lines from Tunisia.

This is supposed to be the Zwara fighters' final departure from Jadu, so the trucks, SUVs, and passenger sedans that will carry them down to the coast today are full of their belongings. Few of the fighters have anything resembling a military kit: The cars are full of duffle bags and wheelies, even a juicer.

Perhaps the fighter with the most unusual skill set is the tall, 43-year-old Dr. Tarik Alatoshi, who received a Ph.D. in geographic information systems from a Chinese university. He spent 11 years in China and speaks the language fluently. Since he fled Zwara and came here in May, Alatoshi has served the Zwara brigade as an unofficial mediator between the excitable young men who want to rush to the fight, and the three professional army officers who command the brigade. He explains that the men don�t care if they die, but that it isn�t good for Libya if they do. They refuse his suggestions to use the body armor and helmets provided by foreign countries. �They think the helmets make them look like old men,� he says. More understandably, they hate the extra weight of the body armor, but, as he says, �If they are running, it is only for a few minutes. Mainly we are fighting from cars.�

Almost all of the men wear green camouflage uniform pants, but Alatoshi explains that these are training uniforms sent by Qatar. The more usefully camouflaged tan combat uniforms from Qatar are in short supply, as are uniform tops. Many wear patriotic t-shirts, some with the flag of the Amazigh.

Those accustomed to the operations of the U.S. Army will notice a few differences. For one, General Mohamed is pointing to a rough sketch on a clipboard that most of the men can�t see. He could have done what American officers often do in field conditions, and sketched a map on the dirt in front of the men. But it seems that he was trained in a much less participatory style of leadership. There is a culture clash here, pitting the extreme autonomy of the volunteers against what seems to have been the top-down culture of the Qaddafi army, and it's not mediated by NCOs, who seem not to exist. I have never met a sergeant from the regular army in the other volunteer brigades, only officers ranking major and above. From the briefing, it is uncertain whether the general knows where Qaddafi�s forces are in Sabratha, or where the other forces that are supposed to be converging from different sides are to join up.

There is also an issue of numbers. Contrary to the Clausewitzian principle of concentration of forces, the revolutionaries seem to practice maximum dispersal. Some of the rest of the Zwara fighters are already an hour�s drive down in Jalat, southwest of Surman in the parched Jafara Valley, close to the rapidly advancing front line. About twenty others are part of a larger force that recaptured Gharian. And some remain at one of two well organized and fairly comfortable camps at schools in Jadu.

One problem is political: Since the fighters are unpaid volunteers, who can leave if dissatisfied, commanders have to promise or deliver action or an interesting experience in order to retain them. And they are much keener on fighting for their own village than for someone else�s. A group of 500 or 1,000 fighters from different towns� brigades might be able to effectively intimidate Qaddafi�s forces sufficiently to force an overall retreat from not just Sabratha and Zwara but the whole coast all the way to Tunisia. But instead, platoon and company sized elements will pick and choose their fights.

On the three hour drive down to Sabratha, the men show decent weapons discipline, pointing their assault rifles in the air rather than at each other. But they are very short on ammunition, so short that most have little practice firing their weapons. Luckily, at this stage in the war, Qaddafi�s troops are often as likely to surrender as they are to fight.

There are six to seven fighters per vehicle. Dismounted, they are supposed to fight as a unit. The 300-man brigade�s three professional officers ride in a black Hyundai Tucson SUV. The little convoy begins with the Tucson, two pickup trucks, two passenger sedans, and one more SUV. One of the pickup trucks has a homemade rocket launcher manufactured by a man from nearby Kabaw nicknamed �Rambo.� While we are still in secure territory, the Tucson leads the way. As we approach Surman, a town newly taken�and not completely pacified�by the revolutionaries, the pickup trucks move to the fore.

Abdullah Dinwari, the second highest ranking of the three professional soldiers in the Zwara brigade, says of the rebels, �It is very difficult to work with these people. It is �please sit down� and �please stand up.� An army must be a dictatorship but they like democracy.� It is not encouraging when he says he is unfamiliar with the crude Qatar-supplied assault rifles in our SUV; he�s used to Kalashnikovs. But with five years of Russian training and a position in the special forces, Dinwari is light years ahead of the 19 to 21 year olds who form the bulk of the brigade.

General Mohamed, a tall, dark-skinned, and fit man in his 50s, known simply as Mr. Senussi to the fighters, explains the plan as he drives. We will go down to Surman and reach Jalat by nightfall, camping there before turning left towards Zwara. He says that we must wait for NATO clearance before advancing further. Otherwise our trucks might be bombed by NATO in the mistaken belief we are part of Qaddafi�s forces.

Assam Baka, a former Air Force operations room officer who�s the third highest ranking officer in the brigade, switches off driving duties with the general. When we stop for a bathroom break by a gully, we�re passed by a pickup truck full of captured African Qaddafi soldiers. General Mohamed points to the passenger sedans heading past us to the mountains. He says they are families fleeing Tripoli. Libya is a sparsely populated country, so a steady stream of refugees amounts to a car every five or ten minutes.

Around 1 p.m., the officers make gradual preparations for the front. General Mohamed changes his cheap black sandals for white sneakers, and all the men put their magazines in their assault rifles. We are waiting to meet up with another convoy of Zwara fighters, but the general�s field radio doesn�t work, nor does his Immersat phone.

By 2:30, a plan is announced: Even though we can�t find the rest of the Zwara fighters, we�re going to Sabratha, to join the Sabratha Brigade in retaking the city. The men are thrilled, and there are many cries of �Allahu Akbar!� By 3, we are in the outskirts of

Sabratha. Shops are closed, common during Ramadan in the daylight hours, but there is some civilian traffic, with passengers waving and making the �V� sign or flashing their lights. On a shabby, dusty street of shuttered shops four kilometers from the town center, our convoy pulls into a large open area opposite a huge mosque and a water tower. Everyone gets out of the cars and shouts �Allahu Akbar� since it seems the Sabratha Brigade has done its work.

Suddenly, heavy weapons fire erupts and General Mohamed jumps in the car and drives away along with most of the others, in the direction of the fire, leaving me among a handful of abandoned cars. The fighters who are left on foot motion to me to move forward to the wall of a building where they crouch, trying to figure out where they�re receiving fire from. After a tense ten minutes or so, we break for the main street. The rest of the cars return to park here. The two trucks with homemade antiaircraft guns dart here and there, scouting for Qaddafi troops.

�Qaddafi prisoners!� says one of the fighters, motioning to me to walk fifty yards back in the direction we came to see a pickup truck full of African men in civvies. It wasn�t clear who captured them. As soon as I start photographing the prisoners, gunfire erupts again and everyone falls back to the warehouses.

Just as we run for cover, a 19-year-old fighter from the Sabratha Brigade, Ahmed Sola, whom I met a few weeks ago while visiting their camp, appears out of nowhere with his friend Mansour. It is a trademark "small war" moment. They greet me, pose for photos, and then move toward the sea and the main fight.

At 4 p.m., occasional booms of rocket fire indicate that the fight for Sabratha continues, without the men here having joined it. The general puts some fighters to work with a conveniently nearby bulldozer closing off the main street with two huge dirt piles. This is to make sure that Qaddafi troops or sympathizers can�t hurtle through. Everyone else crouches in the shade or tries to sleep; many got no sleep last night. Supply convoys pass by twice, providing the men with bottled water, a surprising American Army touch. The Libyans are a lot better with logistics than they are with most of the rest of the infrastructure of military life.

The muezzin of the mosque a few blocks away continues a steady stream of inspirational messages, prayers and calls of �Allahu Akbar,� but it�s not clear how the fight for the center of Sabratha�just 8 kilometers from some of the world�s best preserved Roman ruins�is going.

The men aren�t sure if they will be asked to join the battle in the center of Sabratha, retreat, or go on to Zwara perhaps by another route. They scrounge in their cars for stray bullets to load into clips. Some scrutinize bullets, trying to figure out if they are the size they need. Jalul, a thin, 32-year-old civil engineer wearing body armor and a full uniform, says apologetically, �Today is the first time I fired my gun.�

At around 7:30, the Ramadan fast ends, and a handful of locals come out to offer the Zwara fighters pieces of surprisingly good homemade chocolate cake, cookies, dates, and other food. A half hour later, General Mohammed gets some bad news on his satellite phone: Fifty trucks of Qaddafi volunteers are headed to Sabratha, coming via Jumayil, another Qaddafi stronghold 10 kilometers south of Zwara. These so-called volunteers from Mali or Chad are essentially mercenaries, sometimes given Libyan passports in return for fighting for Qaddafi. The revolutionaries� tenderness toward fellow Libyans does not extend to the volunteers, many of whom are accused of atrocities.

General Mohamed tells the men to retreat, but some of the fighters object vociferously. They want to go on to Zwara, albeit without communications, and possibly at the risk of meeting overwhelming numbers of volunteers. But the general wins this debate. Our small group will return to Mahmiah, an hour south, to spend the night there. Just one truck with an improvised anti-aircraft gun will stay; they drive off to join the Sabratha Brigade with great whoops and shouts of �Allahu Akbar!�

Once we reach Mahmiah, at about 11 p.m., the general decides that we will return all the way to Jadu, which we reach by 3 a.m. �Long day, long war,� he says. The general offers me a room in his personal quarters, which he shares with his three teenaged sons. There�s electricity and I immediately start to charge my Blackberry. But there is no running water and the conditions are squalid. One of his sons comes in with an iPod and asks me if I have a USB charger, a reminder that the family has fallen far from their former middle class existence.

It isn't until Monday afternoon that the news trickles out that Qaddafi's forces have fled the center of Sabratha, although there are reports of shelling from outside. Sabratha is now considered free. Monday evening, the Zwara men send me to break the Ramadan fast at a nearby mosque. About fifty mostly middle aged men�almost all refugees from newly liberated Zawiyah�are gathered around tables of donated home cooked food.

Sadeg Allab, a spokesman for the Zawiyah local council, had just returned from a visit to his hometown. He reported that the road from the Zawiyah Brigade�s mountain camp on the coast is secured. But though Zawiyah is considered free, shelling from Tripoli claimed the lives of nine people Monday. Zawiyah is a spread out town of 25-30 square kilometers, he explains, and not all areas are equally secure. His friend Oun Khair�a physicist who perfected his English in his Canadian education�added that they hope to be able to return to live in Zawiyah soon.

Mustafa Marwan, an Egyptian volunteer with the Arab Medical Union (funded here by Mercy USA), reports that the AMU's five-person trauma team performed 20 major operations on wounded revolutionary fighters between the 10th and 13th of August at the hospital in Zintan, 22 kilometers east of Jadu, where I encountered him checking his email.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 21:56

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Another report from Zawiyah:

quote:

Libya: rooftop sniper takes a heavy toll in Zawiyah, a city waiting to fall
Despite a lightning advance which has all but captured this key strategic oil town just 30 miles from Tripoli, the fighters of the volunteer army hoping to unseat Col Muammar Gaddafi�s Libyan regime are being held at bay, in part, by one man and a gun.

From the rooftops around the city�s Martyr�s Square, a single sniper has brought one wave of the assault along Libya�s western coast to something of a standstill.

�This sniper is really tormenting us,� says Hareth al-Fasi, a 24-year-old surgeon�s son and student from Sutton Coldfield, who has joined the opposition.

�The freedom fighters have tried everything to hit him but have seen nothing more than a rifle muzzle.�

The death of a woman shot in her front room has only added to the singular mystique of a killer ensconced in high buildings and who is said to have accounted for six of the 12 opposition fighters killed on Monday.

In truth, though, it is not just one man who stands in the way of victory. Zawiyah is a city ready to fall and it appears that Gaddafi forces know their fate and have hit back at the advance with ever more reckless abandon. Grad missiles have rained down on districts seized by rebel troops. Rockets and mortars have stopped ground advances in other disputed territories.

The chaos of war is evident throughout.

Pick-up trucks with anti-aircraft guns and single-barrelled rocket launchers fixed to the back tray rush in convoys into Zawiyah along the rebel-held Bir Ghanem street. On the other side of the highway, however, family cars stacked high with bedding head to the safety of the mountains.

After sweeping into the town on Saturday night, the rebel forces say they are marshalled for a tough fight.

�We are encouraging these people to leave so that we clear the government troops out of those neighbourhoods where Gaddafi�s militias are preparing to attack us,� Abdul Moaz Ramadan, 20, a checkpoint commander said.

Inside Zawiyah�s central streets, a battle of nerves between the rival armies has been shaped by the barrage of artillery and rockets.

A shrapnel fragment from a mortar sliced into the head of Omar Ali Misawi as a small unit of fighters advanced under the shop awnings on Omar al-Mukhtar street, formerly a shopping district. In a fug of concussion afterwards, he promised to press on as soon as a bandage was found.

�We are taking the fight to them,� he said. �There is no going back.�

Opposition commanders have pledged to make headway against the ferocious counter-assault, despite the heavy toll both on their ranks and civilian casualties.

�When we make our way into any city the government start firing rockets and missiles to make us leave and inflict suffering on civilians. We�re prepared for this,� said Mukhtar Mohammad, the commander of western mountain forces fighting in the town.

In February, Zawiyah staged a rebellion against Col Gaddafi which was brutally crushed in three bloody weeks.

A second rebellion is now evident with the incoming fighters enjoying the advantage of widespread local support. Hundreds have crossed into rebel territory to volunteer for the anti-Gaddafi cause.

Mohammad Ahmed, a doctor at Zawiyah hospital, reached Bir Muammar, an opposition-held village, yesterday after he fled his job at the emergency department of the city�s main hospital. He said government forces ringed the hospital, after that he ran the gauntlet of streets under the sights of government troops.

�In some places I had to go very fast just to make it to the other side,� he said. �I was lucky to get away at all. The government troops are everywhere in Zawiyah hospital. Even in the emergency room there was a soldier with a gun standing over me. There are lots of freedom fighters around the hospital but the Gaddafi troops are using them as human shields.�

Rebel checkpoints collect lists of men missing or killed since February from Zawiyah residents. By yesterday afternoon one rebel official said 7,000 names had been compiled. That list is ever expanding.

Yesterday the leading surgeon at the rebels� field hospital at Bir Muammar, Nadil Abdul Majid, said they had seen the body of a five-year-old boy who had been killed in government shelling. Ayud Hassan Sheroun�s life was ended by the fragments of a shell that crashed into his family home.

The anti-Gaddafi doctors celebrated the sacrifice of Sheroun�s young life as the latest martyr to fall in the cause of deposing the Brother Leader, who has ruled Libyan for almost 42 years. They realise that the battle for Zawiyah puts Col Gaddafi�s control over Tripoli and what is left of his country at stake.

Mansur Saif al-Nasr, the opposition National Transitional Council�s representative in Paris, said yesterday the movement was two weeks away from victory. Control of Zawiyah would open the way to Tripoli. �We are entering a decisive phase. This will allow the population there to revolt.�

# ? Aug 16, 2011 21:59

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

quote:

Misrata, Once Besieged, Relaxes as Libyan Rebels Advance Against Qaddafi
Libya�s rebel-held city of Misrata, under siege by forces loyal to Muammar Qaddafi for the past six months, is experiencing something new: traffic jams.

With rebels advancing toward the Libyan capital, Tripoli, about 100 miles (160 kilometers) to the west, honking horns and the voices of children playing in Misrata�s streets have replaced the explosions of incoming rockets and artillery shells.

�We are confident we are safe now,� English student Aisha Alifafer, 20, said in an interview yesterday. �We can go shopping and visit others. In the last six months we could not go outside and see the sun.�

The conflict in Libya entered its sixth month today with the rebels claiming advances on the battlefield after several weeks of stalemate. Qaddafi, who seized power in the oil-rich North African nation in a military coup in 1969, controls Tripoli and has told his followers to keep fighting even as the leader appears to be losing ground.

Rebel forces reached the nearby town of Tawarga to the east over the weekend, pushing government Grad missile launchers out of range and ending nightly attacks on downtown Misrata. In the west, opposition forces claim to be inside Zawiya, 35 miles from Tripoli.

Fighting continues to rage west of the town, with a daily rumble of gunfire from the front line, as rebel units struggle to capture Zlitan, an obstacle to a planned advance along the coastal highway to Tripoli.

�We feel good,� Mohammed Elfeturi, 35, a former oil engineer who is a fighter with the rebel Faisal brigade, said as he and his comrades broke the Ramadan fast at an outdoor caf� at sundown. �We have some success.�
NATO Airstrikes

Another fighter, Farouk Arifay, 20, credited airstrikes by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for helping to weaken Qaddafi�s forces. In the nine days to Aug. 15, NATO claimed on its website to have destroyed 179 government military targets.

�We have to thank NATO,� he says. �NATO has been hitting their weapons day after day.�

Popular viewing in Misrata is the repeated screening on Libyan state television of Qaddafi�s Aug. 14 speech in which he said that �the blood of martyrs is fuel for the battle.� Another report said government troops are making gains and have taken two-thirds of Misrata.

�The television of Qaddafi is saying things that are desperate, hysterical,� said former Libyan diplomat Abdulrahman Ben-Naser, who returned from 26 years of exile to his home town last month.

Qaddafi �is finished,� said Mahmoud Abushaala, owner of a city photographic shop. �In any war, the one who has the air and the ground is the one who is going to win.�

Note that Gaddafi's regime is currently claiming to have recaptured Misrata.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 22:54

Nuclear Spoon: Aug 18, 2010; I want to cry out
but I don’t scream and I don’t shout
And I feel so proud
to be alive

Goddamn, Brown Moses, take a holiday or something!

# ? Aug 16, 2011 22:55

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

I've got a crack like addiction to Libya updates, especially now I've started making those maps. They really piss off pro-Gaddafi types.

Here's another story, Africans stuck in Tunisia after fleeing from Libya.

Also, since I started posting in the Guardian live blogs comments I get poo poo like this, part of a longer rant:

quote:

As a consequence, the discussion is much more mundane and supportive of the Guardian's splendid little war, which I'm sure is exactly what you intended. BrownMoses stands ready to pop up the second comments are open to overwhelm with his pro-rebel links. Once might legitimately wonder whether he's part of the Guardian's infrastructure.

CIA, or part of the Guardian's infrastructure, you decide!

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 23:05 on Aug 16, 2011

# ? Aug 16, 2011 22:58

Nuclear Spoon: Aug 18, 2010; I want to cry out
but I don’t scream and I don’t shout
And I feel so proud
to be alive

If you're pissing off internet commenters, you are probably doing the right thing.

Hell, it's not like you're doing the wrong thing here. Unless Gadaffi is the only sane person in a world full of mentals.

# ? Aug 16, 2011 23:35

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

I like how you're demonized for posting links to articles by journalists. Like, respectable actual journalists with real degrees and in-field experience, not random internet-commenting "journalists" and "activists".

As if it's something the CIA would bother to pay someone to do, link-gathering.

The other half of it, of course, is the "pro-rebel position". As if it's wrong to be hopeful that a tyrannical dictatorship will be overturned by its own people. I mean, I can understand why many people, including in this thread, are skeptical, both of the means and the possible outcomes... but being skeptical doesn't mean the same thing as being against the rebels. It should be possible to be simultaneously skeptical of the likely outcomes, but still sympathetic to them; what they want (or profess to want, as far as we can tell) is laudable regardless of what one thinks of the means or the likelihood of success.

So yeah, I can understand people who take a position of "the West supporting civil wars is BAD", but I can't understand people who take a position of "how dare you be pro rebel you bastard!"

# ? Aug 16, 2011 23:42

Hexium: Mar 30, 2011

Brown Moses posted:

Note that Gaddafi's regime is currently claiming to have recaptured Misrata.

Hahaha, seems that Gaddafi's propaganda machine has reached Baghdad Bob levels of abusrdity.

# ? Aug 17, 2011 04:19

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

I've pretty much given up trying to debate anything with posters on the Guardian live blog comments, there's alot of people who are rabidly anti-rebel, and refuse to accept anything that doesn't support their own worldview, while at the same time posting blogs by people who think exactly the same way they do. One guy said HRW proved that NATO were using cluster bombs on civilians in Misrata, and went strangly quiet when it was pointed out he was thinking about a HRI report, who if you remember was that "organisation" of two people running a glorified blog. This is the same person who refused to accept a article on the Arabist by a writer who was actually in Libya because it didn't match up to his preconceived notions of what was going on in Libya.
There was also another guy who refused to accept the UN resolution didn't specify a no fly zone, even when quoted the text from the resolution. I just mainly post links now, especially as it still pisses them off as much as just debating with them.

Anyway, here's some links from the last 12 hours:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U84UZln2_VI

Sniper�s bullet ends life-long friendship in Libya

Gadhafi's troops use hospital as base, doctors say

Libyan rebels tighten grip around Tripoli
I believe "Al-Heisha" mentioned in the article would either be "New Al-Hishah" as seen on this map, or "Al Hishah" as seen here. If it's New Al-Hishah then there's actually not many built up areas along the road to Sirte, so it'll be interesting to see if the rebels can reach Sirte now.

NATO cites 'significant advances' in Libya

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 08:51 on Aug 17, 2011

# ? Aug 17, 2011 08:34

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# ? May 21, 2024 20:46

Chortles: Dec 29, 2008

And then you get those like (I think his name was?) Handlebar Mustache who explicitly accuse the rebel(s/leadership) of being neoliberal defectors from the regime whose presence irredeemably taints the revolution, "it's only okay if it's a morally pure revolution"... then I'm reminded of Ardennes' take on economic rights ahead of political rights.

# ? Aug 17, 2011 10:04

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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