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Yeah. I remember back in Gulf War I, when Saddam started chucking Scuds at Israel. The US deployed Patriot arrays into Israel and there was quite the kerfuffle about it. Partly because they were pretty unproven at the time and some Scuds got through anyway, and partly because it was OMG MISSILE DEFENSE which was, at the time, still a hot-button issue. Bush Sr. was Reagan's former VP and star wars had been a big deal and while the Wall may have come down, Russia still wasn't too drat happy about ongoing development and testing of missile defense systems. They still aren't, come to think of it, but defense against shorter-range ballistics like Scuds is kind of not that big a deal any more I guess. In any case the scenarios where the US would deploy missile defense in Libya seem pretty unlikely. It'd be easy to argue that it's for the defense of civilians, but it'd also take soldiers on the ground to operate them I assume, and they're really only useful deployed in the way of where the scuds are being aimed, and given how many fronts there are, it'd be pretty easy for Ghaddafi to just shoot them somewhere else; e.g., you put Patriots in Benghazi, and he shoots them at Misurata instead, or Nafusa, or Zawiya, or whatever.
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 03:13 |
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# ? May 21, 2024 17:14 |
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It's Spin magazine, so don't expect any astute commentary, but it's an interesting article about revolutionary hip-hop in Tunisia. http://www.spin.com/articles/tunisias-hip-hop-revolution
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 03:18 |
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farraday posted:I said where it was targeted, not that it was targeted at the ship. Scuds aren't that accurate. A ship in harbor at Benghazi would have a much better chance of shooting down a scud aimed at Benghazi then one just sitting somewhere in the Gulf of Sidra. Bit of a moot point though. We're not going to send an AEGIS cruiser anywhere near Libya unless Quaddafi starts doing something totally insane like threatening to deploy WMDs.
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 03:42 |
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Leperflesh posted:Yeah. I remember back in Gulf War I, when Saddam started chucking Scuds at Israel. The US deployed Patriot arrays into Israel and there was quite the kerfuffle about it. Partly because they were pretty unproven at the time and some Scuds got through anyway, and partly because it was OMG MISSILE DEFENSE which was, at the time, still a hot-button issue. Bush Sr. was Reagan's former VP and star wars had been a big deal and while the Wall may have come down, Russia still wasn't too drat happy about ongoing development and testing of missile defense systems. IIRC, the Patriots didn't manage to intercept much of anything back in 1991, and that wasn't surprising considering that the system was designed as an AA platform, not an Anti-Missile battery. Postwar analysis by MIT showed an intercept rate of 0-10%. The system has been totally re-designed since then and supposedly is quite good at knocking down missiles in-theater now, but I don't think that there's been much testing under combat conditions.
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 03:47 |
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Video report from Brega: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMA9mA_os6I
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 08:23 |
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Hexium posted:An Aegis Destroy might be able to. The Arleigh Burke class destroyers out there should be carrying this, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RIM-161_Standard_Missile_3, which is designed to provide fleet anti-ballistic missile capability, so they should be able to protect coastal areas with it. The ships are in the area but none of them have been assigned to Unified Protector though. HMS Liverpool, same class as HMS Gloucester that shot down those silkworm missiles, wouldn't really have much hope shooting down a SCUD, they just fall too drat fast.
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 08:40 |
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How big of a threat really are the SCUDs? The launchers themselves are giant gently caress-all targets, even larger than a mobile anti-aircraft or these GRAD launchers that NATOs been blowing up; the launch procedure takes something like an hour at minimum to pull off; and the accuracy on the ones Qaddafi has is something like half a kilometer. The one they shot off today was within a third of the effective range of the SCUD-B and still only managed to hit open desert. The Libyans supposedly have some North Korean Rodongs, which have a 1000km range and a CEP radius of 2km to 4km. With those, in addition to any point in Libya, he could hit Tunisia, Malta, Sardinia, Sicily, or the heel of Italy, which would do nothing but aggravate NATO and likely escalate their involvement into an unwinnable situation for Qaddafi.
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 08:53 |
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Here's another article about the rebels progress:quote:Libya rebels show new discipline in push to Tripoli
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 08:54 |
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CNN report on the reality of reporting from Tripoli https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufi5oD_mWTo Latest NATO report quote:Sorties conducted 15 AUGUST: 127
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 09:16 |
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AJE Inside Story asks who is in control of the Libyan opposition? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hih80SVP4ZI Here's a link to NATO's live press conference starting at 1200 GMT http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/events_67375.htm
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 10:30 |
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quote:ANALYSIS-Fight or flee: decision time for Libya's Gaddafi
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 11:26 |
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quote:Why Gaddafi's Grip On Power Looks So Shaky
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 12:26 |
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Update from Zeina Khodrquote:heavy clashes in Zawiyah
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 15:34 |
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Xandu posted:It's Spin magazine, so don't expect any astute commentary, but it's an interesting article about revolutionary hip-hop in Tunisia. Thank you thank you, I live for this stuff. Time to add to the collection! I wonder if any nasheed singers are involved..
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 16:07 |
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Thank you Brown Moses for being such a superb source of information. I know I'd never have taken the time to keep myself so thoroughly informed if I'd had to do it alone. As the Libyan revolution looks to be entering some kind of vague 'final phase' I've been reflecting back on the last 6 months, and its been a wild ride.
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 16:42 |
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Jonny Hallam of the BBC just tweeted thisquote:#BBC: Pro-Gad Government in #Tripoli has admitted that is has lost control of #Gharyan to #Rebels.
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 16:48 |
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Al-Assad has been shelling a Palestinian camp in Latakia for the past few days, forcing at least 5000 refugees to flee. He better never claim to be the leader of the resistance again. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14533967 posted:Thousands of Palestinian refugees have been forced to flee a camp in the Syrian port of Latakia amid shelling by government troops, the UN says. Also, Michel Kilo, a very famous Syrian dissident, wrote an op-ed in As-Safir a few days. I can't really understand it, but he seems to be appealing to fellow Christians, many/most of whom support al-Assad, to listen to reason and distance themselves from the regime. http://www.assafir.com/Article.aspx...DCu1UY.facebook
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 16:58 |
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This CNN article is a good read, it basically talks about what its like to report from Tripoli, and other related difficulties.
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 18:23 |
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Young Freud posted:How big of a threat really are the SCUDs? But they're also 40 years old, probably ill-maintained, and when working correctly they regularly miss their intended target by up to a kilometre. At this point in the conflict, they're really no more dangerous than the already existing random artillery shelling. Changing up the method by which you bombard cities doesn't really change the threat level.
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 19:07 |
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Aren't the payloads much larger so if they accidentally hit the intended target they'd take out a 100 or so people versus 2 or 3? Shooting at city centers would probably be a terror tactic anyways right?
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 19:19 |
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Slantedfloors posted:They're as dangerous as a big rocket with a bomb on the end can be.
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 19:33 |
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Slantedfloors posted:They're as dangerous as a big rocket with a bomb on the end can be. He also probably doesn't have too many of them since there would be no reason for the coalition not to destroy as many as they could in airstrikes. Fixed launch sites are pretty much right out which leaves the mobile ones. Given various factors like wear, capture, and destruction during the 6 months or so of air attacks, the chance he has more than a bear handful of mobile launchers, at best, seems very low. Without the preparations the Iraqis put into launching the drat things quickly, it would seem unlikely they will play any role now that their use has crystallized the need to prevent their use.
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 19:51 |
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Could we stop treating the name Scud like it's an acronym? It's just a NATO reporting name, like Flanker or Bear.
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 19:55 |
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Rocket-based weapons like the Scud have a lot more destructive power than artillery rounds, especially on a per-shot basis, but they don't have the barrage ability unless used en-masse. The earlier comparison to the V-2 is an apt one. They're (ineffectual) terror weapons, not strategic weapons.
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 19:58 |
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Darth123123 posted:Aren't the payloads much larger so if they accidentally hit the intended target they'd take out a 100 or so people versus 2 or 3? Shooting at city centers would probably be a terror tactic anyways right? The payloads are larger than those from traditional artillery or the Grad rockets that have been used before, but there's also going to be a whole hell of a lot less of them coming down - best estimate is he has less than 500 total, not counting the ones that have degraded over 40 years or will fly off and impact absolutely nothing in the middle of the desert. They're also pretty much sitting ducks. Total firing time is something like an hour to do properly, during which they're completely exposed.
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 20:00 |
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New AJE report, rebels advance in Zawiyah (hurrah!) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnN723kdjzw This video is apparently from the attack on Tiji, including Truck Tank! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--GoK5UkYdw Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 20:11 on Aug 16, 2011 |
# ? Aug 16, 2011 20:09 |
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Giant guns bolted onto pick-up trucks, tooling around in the desert shooting at the government, stealing tanks and shouting "God is Great!" These guys are just a bikini model and a six-pack away from Redneck Heaven.
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 20:22 |
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I've identified the locations filmed in the video from Tiji on this map, confirming it is filmed in Tiji.
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 20:32 |
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BBC Radio 4 audio report, saying the government has admitted losing Gharyan.
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 21:00 |
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This is a good map, I proved this video was definitly filmed in Sabha: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuHhNfeWiSc See it plotted on this map. [edit] Here's another video from the same event, it helps confirm the location: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIKjBcksnYo According to a guy on Twitter he saw the same video a few weeks ago. Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 22:44 on Aug 16, 2011 |
# ? Aug 16, 2011 21:42 |
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Great account of the battle for Sabratha:quote:The Fight for Sabratha
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 21:56 |
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Another report from Zawiyah:quote:Libya: rooftop sniper takes a heavy toll in Zawiyah, a city waiting to fall
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 21:59 |
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quote:Misrata, Once Besieged, Relaxes as Libyan Rebels Advance Against Qaddafi
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 22:54 |
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Goddamn, Brown Moses, take a holiday or something!
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 22:55 |
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I've got a crack like addiction to Libya updates, especially now I've started making those maps. They really piss off pro-Gaddafi types. Here's another story, Africans stuck in Tunisia after fleeing from Libya. Also, since I started posting in the Guardian live blogs comments I get poo poo like this, part of a longer rant: quote:As a consequence, the discussion is much more mundane and supportive of the Guardian's splendid little war, which I'm sure is exactly what you intended. BrownMoses stands ready to pop up the second comments are open to overwhelm with his pro-rebel links. Once might legitimately wonder whether he's part of the Guardian's infrastructure. Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 23:05 on Aug 16, 2011 |
# ? Aug 16, 2011 22:58 |
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If you're pissing off internet commenters, you are probably doing the right thing. Hell, it's not like you're doing the wrong thing here. Unless Gadaffi is the only sane person in a world full of mentals.
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 23:35 |
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I like how you're demonized for posting links to articles by journalists. Like, respectable actual journalists with real degrees and in-field experience, not random internet-commenting "journalists" and "activists". As if it's something the CIA would bother to pay someone to do, link-gathering. The other half of it, of course, is the "pro-rebel position". As if it's wrong to be hopeful that a tyrannical dictatorship will be overturned by its own people. I mean, I can understand why many people, including in this thread, are skeptical, both of the means and the possible outcomes... but being skeptical doesn't mean the same thing as being against the rebels. It should be possible to be simultaneously skeptical of the likely outcomes, but still sympathetic to them; what they want (or profess to want, as far as we can tell) is laudable regardless of what one thinks of the means or the likelihood of success. So yeah, I can understand people who take a position of "the West supporting civil wars is BAD", but I can't understand people who take a position of "how dare you be pro rebel you bastard!"
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# ? Aug 16, 2011 23:42 |
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Brown Moses posted:Note that Gaddafi's regime is currently claiming to have recaptured Misrata.
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# ? Aug 17, 2011 04:19 |
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I've pretty much given up trying to debate anything with posters on the Guardian live blog comments, there's alot of people who are rabidly anti-rebel, and refuse to accept anything that doesn't support their own worldview, while at the same time posting blogs by people who think exactly the same way they do. One guy said HRW proved that NATO were using cluster bombs on civilians in Misrata, and went strangly quiet when it was pointed out he was thinking about a HRI report, who if you remember was that "organisation" of two people running a glorified blog. This is the same person who refused to accept a article on the Arabist by a writer who was actually in Libya because it didn't match up to his preconceived notions of what was going on in Libya. There was also another guy who refused to accept the UN resolution didn't specify a no fly zone, even when quoted the text from the resolution. I just mainly post links now, especially as it still pisses them off as much as just debating with them. Anyway, here's some links from the last 12 hours: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U84UZln2_VI Sniper’s bullet ends life-long friendship in Libya Gadhafi's troops use hospital as base, doctors say Libyan rebels tighten grip around Tripoli I believe "Al-Heisha" mentioned in the article would either be "New Al-Hishah" as seen on this map, or "Al Hishah" as seen here. If it's New Al-Hishah then there's actually not many built up areas along the road to Sirte, so it'll be interesting to see if the rebels can reach Sirte now. NATO cites 'significant advances' in Libya Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 08:51 on Aug 17, 2011 |
# ? Aug 17, 2011 08:34 |
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# ? May 21, 2024 17:14 |
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And then you get those like (I think his name was?) Handlebar Mustache who explicitly accuse the rebel(s/leadership) of being neoliberal defectors from the regime whose presence irredeemably taints the revolution, "it's only okay if it's a morally pure revolution"... then I'm reminded of Ardennes' take on economic rights ahead of political rights.
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# ? Aug 17, 2011 10:04 |