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It's probably somewhere around a breakeven call getting considerably more +ev the more 3s are in his range.
AARO fucked around with this message at 20:40 on Oct 16, 2011 |
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Oct 16, 2011 20:28
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| # ? May 24, 2024 16:50 |
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I can't see folding there, this is the perfect spot to make a range and put it into pokerstove. I would say A4-A2 is borderline never in his range, and 22-55 are also not in there often but much more often than A4-A2. Reasons being, people fold 22-55 UTG sometimes, they fold to 3bets often, and they like to trap this flop. A4-A2 doesn't open raise pf, folds to 3bet, same thing really but you see them so rarely preflop.
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Oct 16, 2011 20:43
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What would you say the majority of his range is there? I narrowed it down to the majority of his range being something like 33, A2s, A4s, A5s, 66-88 (I think bigger pairs would have had a bigger PFR from this particular player). Bluffs were also a big part of his range IMO because the pot was already large and that flop is not likely to have hit the MP players and would put me to the test with a hand like AK or AQ. Like you said I pretty much discounted sets, but I think A2s and A4s were in his range because a small PFR corresponds to a weakish hand like this for this player, and live players like seeing flops with suited aces even if they are 3-bet. I think this particular player with a pair + gutshot + ace might shove this flop thinking he might not be in bad shape even if called by an overpair.
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Oct 16, 2011 23:16
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I'd lean more towards a pocket pair that saw an all low flop and hurr shipped it even though you could easily have him crushed because hes a tilting spew monkey. Idiots show up with sets (because he just wants to get it in now while he knows hes got the best hand and is afraid of it being checked around) and low aces here occasionally, because hey its live poker why not raise utg and call a 3bet for 1/3rd of your stack with A3! I'm calling here.
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Oct 17, 2011 00:10
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I don't think he will even have a 'bluff' here, the weakest hand he is shoving will be like AT or something like that. I think you will see AJ-AQ here sometimes. If he shows up pf with A4,A2,A5 then him shoving this flop is really standard, but that seems crazy for him to have it pf, you might know better than me here though. The hands that make sense the most to me will be 88, AQ type hands. If you can rule out the AQ, 66-TT hands preflop because of the raise size then it gets worse for you on the flop and that could be enough to fold.
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Oct 17, 2011 02:36
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Mind_Taker posted:Live $1/$2 NL.
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Oct 17, 2011 03:28
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He has like every hand there is here, pretty easy call
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Oct 17, 2011 04:52
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ZeroStar posted:I would say A4-A2 is borderline never in his range, and 22-55 are also not in there often but much more often than A4-A2. Reasons being, people fold 22-55 UTG sometimes, they fold to 3bets often, and they like to trap this flop. A4-A2 doesn't open raise pf, folds to 3bet, same thing really but you see them so rarely preflop. This guy is on tilt though. So I think he can definitely have those A2, A4 and A5 hands. He can have almost anything after spewing off $800 in $100 increments. He almost never ships here with a flopped straight or set (maybe 22 some small %). I think he has a 3 or 67 a considerable amount. But most likely it's a 5 or 66-99. If that's the case. Board: 5h 4d 2c Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 70.519% 69.00% 01.52% 762372 16747.50 { 99-66, 33, 2c2s, A5s, K5s, 75s+, 65s, 54s, 43s, A5o, K5o, 76o, 65o, 43o } Hand 1: 29.481% 27.97% 01.52% 308973 16747.50 { AKo } But as you add 3s to his range it gets better. Even with 22% its a breakeven call. Board: 5h 4d 2c Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 60.323% 58.99% 01.34% 1289382 29235.00 { 99-66, 33, 2c2s, A5s, K5s, K3s, Q3s, J3s, T3s, 93s, 83s, 75s+, 73s, 65s, 52s+, 43s, 32s, A5o, K5o, K3o, 93o, 83o, 73o, 65o, 52o+, 43o } Hand 1: 39.677% 38.34% 01.34% 838068 29235.00 { AKo } That's probably way too many 3s. It really depends on his level of tilt. OP have you seen him play total crap hands like 93 before? You can probably even put some AT-Ak hands in and then its: Board: 5h 4d 2c Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 51.550% 47.82% 03.73% 1448658 113011.50 { 99-66, 33, 2c2s, AJs+, A5s, K5s, K3s, Q3s, J3s, T3s, 93s, 83s, 75s+, 73s, 65s, 53s+, 43s, AJo+, A5o, K5o, K3o, Q3o, J3o, T3o, 93o, 83o, 76o, 73o, 65o, 53o, 43o, 32o } Hand 1: 48.450% 44.72% 03.73% 1354719 113011.50 { AKo } AARO fucked around with this message at 05:22 on Oct 17, 2011 |
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Oct 17, 2011 04:55
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I don't think he'd play total trash hands like 93, especially with a preflop raise. The only 3 I see in his range is 33 and maybe like K3s, but nothing else with a PFR and an open shove on the flop. Thanks again for the comments. I really felt like it was a borderline decision at the time and I guess the comments here seem to suggest it probably is slightly +EV to call here.
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Oct 17, 2011 14:32
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Mind_Taker posted:I don't think he'd play total trash hands like 93, especially with a preflop raise. The only 3 I see in his range is 33 and maybe like K3s, but nothing else with a PFR and an open shove on the flop. No it is massively +ev to call. Like, probably $50.
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Oct 18, 2011 02:57
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Live 1/2NL. I had joined the table about 20 minutes ago with $300. Villain 1 (~800) makes it 17 in middle position. I call with 66 in position, and V2 on my immediate left (~270) calls. Flop comes 6TKr. V1 cbets for 30, I make it 75. V2 almost instantly shoves. V1 tanks and reshoves. Hero? I dont have any real reads or history with either player. The only helpful information is V2 decided to wait 15 minutes after taking a smokebreak to get his BB instead of paying $3. I also saw him make it 15 utg, get reraised to 45 and muck QQ faceup. Guy who reraised him showed AK and V2 got mad, saying if he kept playing trash like that he'd go broke. V2 also called the the floor over to put the clock on me after I tanked for about 2 minutes.
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Oct 30, 2011 06:15
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what the hell call instantly e: i hope you folded because that'd be hilaaaaaaarious MY INEVITABLE DEBT fucked around with this message at 06:20 on Oct 30, 2011 |
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Oct 30, 2011 06:16
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MY INEVITABLE DEBT posted:what the hell call instantly Obviously my first instinct is to snap fistpump call, but I had to think about it. Im not too worried about V1, he has AA/AK. I'm worried about V2. Dude never has K6/T6/QJ/KK, slim chance he has KT. That gives him TT a lot of the time, and KT rarely. The dude sat and read the paper for 15 minutes instead of paying $3. He's a nit. Any young guy I snap there, but how many 60yr old grinders are capable of making a move there?
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Oct 30, 2011 06:57
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Giving a guy 0% chance to make certain moves or have certain holdings because he is an old nit who you have no reads on is not a good idea. You've got a set on the flop, its hold em, its live 1/2, GET IT IN GET IT IN GET IT IN NEVER FOLD EVER STOP THINKING! Edit: i feel like v2 had to have TT and this is a results oriented question MAN OF MANY MOUTHS fucked around with this message at 10:42 on Oct 30, 2011 |
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Oct 30, 2011 10:34
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Maybe I'm a huge nit but I don't think that 17-1 is enough implied odds to always set mine. Do you really get stacks in 50%+ of the time? I've thought for a long time that people way overestimate how often they get paid off with sets. What do you guys think?
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Oct 30, 2011 11:29
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mt1 posted:Obviously my first instinct is to snap fistpump call, but I had to think about it. Im not too worried about V1, he has AA/AK. I'm worried about V2. Dude never has K6/T6/QJ/KK, slim chance he has KT. That gives him TT a lot of the time, and KT rarely. It doesn't have to be "a move?" He can have AK KQ KT AA. He only has a "slim chance" to have KT because you said so, not because of any real thing. He also doesn't have to cold 3b jam a huge amount on the flop with the nuts, he could flat sometimes. He could flat AA and AK pre. It's not good but he can do it. I'm sure he had TT though or this hand wouldn't even have been posted. Don't forget that there's 9 combinations of KT and 3 of TT. Even if he plays KT only half the time and never has anything but KT and TT it's a snapcall. "Guy who reraised him showed AK and V2 got mad, saying if he kept playing trash like that he'd go broke." you really think a guy like this is an "old grinder?" He's loving 60 and playing 1/2 get the money in.
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Oct 30, 2011 18:54
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I hope you got it in the instant v2 called the clock on you.
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Nov 1, 2011 19:08
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fistpump calling i got a set its the nuts in live 1/2 i don't care if villain 2 is a 200 year old man who's on a respirator
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Nov 2, 2011 07:43
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mt1 posted:I dont have any real reads or history with either player. The only helpful information is V2 decided to wait 15 minutes after taking a smokebreak to get his BB instead of paying $3. I also saw him make it 15 utg, get reraised to 45 and muck QQ faceup. Guy who reraised him showed AK and V2 got mad, saying if he kept playing trash like that he'd go broke. V2 also called the the floor over to put the clock on me after I tanked for about 2 minutes. Not that it even matters (slam the money in) but what is his perception of you? If you and V1 are young, I could easily see an older guy getting frisky with hands you've already eliminated from his range. I don't see how we can so calmly eliminate AK and even as weird as a QJs shove on this flop if both you guys are young and he's thinking you're getting into a pissing contest. I've seen quite a few old guys make strange plays with open enders, ESPECIALLY with young guys, acting like a draw is the nuts. Especially when face cards are involved. Not that I'm by any means a pro, but you seem to have talked yourself into an extremely narrow hand range based on, really, one weird situation (the QQ face up fold. I've sat out waiting for a BB just to watch a table for a while if I'm fresh there. DOES THIS MAKE ME A NIT!?) Just because he calls AK trash in one instance doesn't mean he's never playing it. In fact, he always is. He's just mad he lost the money to what he (incorrectly) perceived to be AA/KK. You're never folding a set here, ever. But I guess because you posted he did indeed have TT.
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Nov 4, 2011 00:08
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TheKevman posted:(...I've sat out waiting for a BB just to watch a table for a while if I'm fresh there. DOES THIS MAKE ME A NIT!?) It does give you a nitty image, one way or the other. If I'm sitting at a table where I'm an unknown to them and them to me, I prefer to buy in short and splash right in. You'll get a lot more action in general. People won't take you as seriously because you bought in short, and you're less likely to make a huge mistake playing short for lack of reads so long as you're a competent short game player. Then when you get some better reads and you've located your juicy targets (and maybe changed seats to optimize your position on the table), you just buy up to max if you haven't chipped up. But yeah. As for the hand, there's no way you fold this at live 1/2 without a very, very strong read. If you do fold it, correct or not, you're making a mistake, because most of the time you're crushing them both.
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Nov 4, 2011 10:25
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1-3 NL at my local casino I'm in the CO with TT. BB has been aggressive. UTG+1 makes it $12, folded around to me. I call, folded to BB who makes it $30. UTG+1 calls. I call. Flop is TJK rainbow. BB bets $30, UTG+1 folds. I raise to $130, with about that much behind. BB pushes over the top (has me covered). I...?
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Nov 21, 2011 19:21
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discstickers posted:1-3 NL at my local casino ...am never folding once I raise his cbet. If you don't know what to do when he shoves, you shouldn't raise, you shouldn't raise to that sizing, and you shouldn't even remotely entertain folding when getting such a ridiculous price to call. Once you raise to that size, he could flip over AQ and you are still fistpump calling. You only hate life vs oversets, and if he's been aggressive, he's got a lot more than 6x combos of hands here. He's going to put it in with any 2p+ and if he really is aggressive, he can put probably it in with any AK/KQ/QJ hands as well. Teppec fucked around with this message at 19:47 on Nov 21, 2011 |
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Nov 21, 2011 19:43
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discstickers posted:1-3 NL at my local casino you call instantly and it's not even close e: teppec is slightly off. It's really unlikely he's 3betting QJ but KQs is possible. So we're looking at JJ QQ KK AA AQ AK for his 3b range. QQ probably doesn't rejam flop. Against his range that most definitely jams flop we're doing very well. If we add KQ we're doing even better. Board: Ks Jh Td Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 48.189% 47.52% 00.67% 56457 792.00 { KK+, JJ, AQs+, AQo+ } Hand 1: 51.811% 51.14% 00.67% 60759 792.00 { TT } This is mostly due to the vast number of combinations of AQ (16) vs the combinations of sets (3 each). This is certainly the way I play this flop because theres a lot of bad turns for us and the same range that gets it in on flop is getting it in on blank turns. Also once we raise there's $250 in the pot and once he jams there's $380 in the pot and we're getting 3 to 1. Now if we know for a fact he never 3bets AQ which i seriously doubt because you said he was aggressive (even though it's not the best spot to 3bet) our equity doesn't suffer that much. This is because AA makes up the same number of combinations as KK and JJ combined. Board: Ks Jh Td Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 57.879% 56.87% 01.01% 20268 360.00 { KK+, JJ } Hand 1: 42.121% 41.11% 01.01% 14652 360.00 { TT } Of course there's always a small chance he spazzes out with QQ or has KQ or something so this hand is a pretty standard raise flop/get it in. And we're absolutely NEVER folding getting such a good price. We only need about 26% equity to break even on a call. MY INEVITABLE DEBT fucked around with this message at 19:53 on Nov 21, 2011 |
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Nov 21, 2011 19:45
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MY INEVITABLE DEBT posted:you call instantly and it's not even close We agree, the world is ending. Moose, I miss you.
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Nov 21, 2011 19:48
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discstickers posted:1-3 NL at my local casino Put your money in. Put your money in. Put your money in. And don't loving, I mean jesus loving christ, don't loving raise the flop to an amount that FORCES him to go all in or fold (I mean not literally because lolive players but seriously, he isn't flatting 100 more and playing with a half pot bet, he is shoving or folding), and then wonder if you should fold the 4th nuts on the flop.
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Nov 21, 2011 22:54
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I was the BB with AQ. The guy folded his TT face up, and swore that I had KK, and there was no way I reraised preflop with AQ.
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Nov 22, 2011 08:09
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i am not exactly sure what your 2.5x 3bet oop with a raiser and a caller not particularly deep accomplishes
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Nov 22, 2011 15:34
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discstickers posted:I was the BB with AQ. The guy folded his TT face up, and swore that I had KK, and there was no way I reraised preflop with AQ. Probably cause its bad bad bad bad baaaaad.
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Nov 22, 2011 16:06
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So you should only ever make that play with AA or KK? Won't your opponents know you always have AA or KK if you do that? Am I saying I'd always make that play or even with a high percentage? No, I'd pick my spots. Would I do it again against that villain in that position? No, probably not.
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Nov 23, 2011 17:39
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discstickers posted:So you should only ever make that play with AA or KK? Won't your opponents know you always have AA or KK if you do that? Why wouldn't you do it again now? And no, you can probably include AK and QQ in that range and maybe JJ depending on how the table reacts. Maybe AQ is a good 3bet, we don't know because you barely told us anything about the table. The range isn't really the issue as much as the atrocious sizing. Also don't give your opponents credit for knowing poo poo at live smallstakes. It's pretty important to know why you would/wouldn't play this the same way and what "picking your spots" entails besides "lookin at my cards and thinkin IS THIS MY SPOT"
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Nov 23, 2011 17:43
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discstickers posted:So you should only ever make that play with AA or KK? Won't your opponents know you always have AA or KK if you do that? No, I would literally never make it that tiny unless there was a stack size reason. I could have QQ+, AK, K5s, QJs, KQo, whatever who knows depends on table dynamics, but never going to that size.
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Nov 23, 2011 19:04
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3/5 Live, 3-handed. Degenerate 4:30 a.m. crowd/vibe. I was drunk when I showed up and joined the table at midnight, but I'm 90% sober now. Villain is a reg/makes his living doing this from what I can gather. And in fact, everybody I played with during this session seemed to be a regular -- first-name basis with all the staff etc. I don't have to say that this was my first time at this casino when I asked for a rules clarification, since everybody already knew that. Anyhow, villain is a 25 year old film school grad, white; dressed halfway between a hipster and a hippie (a hippiester?). He gave me poo poo earlier about having me "pegged," but apologized thereafter and has been good-natured. Complains that he is on a sick $120k downswing in the last three months due to amazing runbad. It's plausible, as the place apparently has regular 5/10 and 10/20 games that run for several hours during prime time every night, but he also said he had only been to Bay101 twice. If I've got a bankroll that can survive a $120k downswing, I'm probably driving the extra half hour to Bay101 on at least a semi-regular basis. Back on track, again: We've both been playing a bit loose, and the third player at the table commented that we should make a side bet on which of me and the Villain would stack the other first, because it was definitely gonna happen. Villain and I have tangled in a few hands, but only one showdown I can recall, especially since he changed seats to my immediate left when we dropped to 5-handed. The showdown hand was about half an hour earlier: I had AKo on the button, and the board had come 836JQ. Villain called my $45 river bet into a $70 pot with 53s for a winning pair of threes. My action had been pre-flop raise to $15, $20 c-bet, check behind, bet. Villain said he thought I missed my flush draw. I don't know whether I believed him, but it was a nice play on his part regardless of the precise reason he called. He's also seen me pick off a three-barrel stone-cold bluff by a LAG with over a $2k stack who three-bet my A9s pre-flop with J8s, a couple hours earlier. J8s guy seemed like a very good, very intense player, in a similar demographic. He left after that hand. Hand: 3/5 Live, 3-handed, no rake. I've got the table covered with $750, and effective stacks are $525. Button opens to $15; SB calls; BB calls with T  8$15 is the standard open now that we're 3-handed, as far as I can tell. I don't think Villain has passed up a steal attempt on the button since we went 5-handed, except he's straddled his button three times since we went 3-handed, and only raised one of those. Flop is T  55 SB checks; BB bets $25; Button calls; SB calls. Turn is T 55 9SB checks; BB checks; Button bets $55; SB folds; BB raises to $195; Button calls. Villain only took 5-10 seconds to make the call, but at least gave the impression that he was thinking during that time. River is T 559 Q$290 effective behind; $510 in the pot. BB... ? srsly fucked around with this message at 20:35 on Nov 23, 2011 |
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Nov 23, 2011 19:50
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srsly posted:3/5 Live, 3-handed. Degenerate 4:30 a.m. crowd/vibe. I was drunk when I showed up and joined the table at midnight, but I'm 90% sober now. Villain is a reg/makes his living doing this from what I can gather. And in fact, everybody I played with during this session seemed to be a regular -- first-name basis with all the staff etc. I don't have to say that this was my first time at this casino when I asked for a rules clarification, since everybody already knew that. Its kind of a retarded spot because I would never be in it myself, the turn seems kind of atrocious. I'd check fold river. I assume you are bluffing the turn but it leaves behind really awkward stacks to leverage a river bet and he's never folding anything you want him to fold to the turn raise really.
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Nov 23, 2011 21:28
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Yeah it really looks like you are just clicking buttons, I don't see a good reason to lead out on this flop. Ending up in a spot where we c/r this hand also just seems bad, I would just c/c flop and go from there.
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Nov 23, 2011 23:14
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what my buddies said, but I'll elaborate on why its bad once you donk. your lead on the flop looks a bit polarized between a stab on a dry flop and at most a pair of T's. You probably 3bet TT+ pre and do you really lead 5x? even if you do the villain certainly doesn't think so. (you also look bluffy because think about all the hands you'd close the action with pre, and how many of them whiffs this flop completely) On the flop this villain seems capable of floating you with overs, and ofc calling you with all pairs and probably all Ax. He's less likely to have pure air in his flatting range as I think those raise if he wants to do something to fight back. When you check turn and villain bets, it's mostly a value range that beats you, or some pure float that decided to bet. As villain's going to check smaller pairs and Ax to showdown much more often. So against villain's turn betting range check-calling is probably a better action, when you checkraise you're so unlikely to fold better (TJ+) and you make him fold all his bluffs that may barrel the river. As played I have no idea, check fold river? we're only beating like backdoor clubs that villain picked up that he called turn C/R with. There's probably not enough combos of those. (the worst value hand villain has in this spot is like...TJ/TK), I don't think villain folds those to a river ship with stacks being as they are. HKS fucked around with this message at 01:41 on Nov 24, 2011 |
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Nov 24, 2011 01:31
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Thanks for analysis. I shipped the river, he instacalled, and mucked when I turned over the ten. I think he might have muttered something about a 9 as he got up to take a lap around the room before rebuying.
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Nov 24, 2011 08:12
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srsly posted:Thanks for analysis. I shipped the river, he instacalled, and mucked when I turned over the ten. I think he might have muttered something about a 9 as he got up to take a lap around the room before rebuying. I'd rather hear what you think you were doing rather than what actually happened.
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Nov 24, 2011 08:15
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Did you ship for value or because you thought you couldn't win and hoped he folds(SOMETHING I DUNNO)??? Because drat wtf your play is atrocious.
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Nov 24, 2011 09:55
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Shipped hoping he folds, but also knew I beat hands in his calling range. My river decision is between shipping and check/folding. But if I don't go all-in, I might as well open fold the river, because there is no possible way he is checking behind that river. He is shoving any two if I check. So the question is do I have pot odds against the proposition that he (a) calls, and (b) with a hand that beats me. The answer was yes.
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Nov 25, 2011 06:50
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| # ? May 24, 2024 16:50 |
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Your reasoning is all off. If he's shoving any two at that river, you should be check/calling the river, because that's got a hell of a lot more value than shoving yourself. The only thing you beat that might be bluff catching is a nine or a pocket pair. You're losing to everything else. If he'll bet any two, you need to give him the opportunity to do so. Shoving this river is setting money on fire.
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Nov 25, 2011 07:23
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