Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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something original: Sep 9, 2011

No definitive info yet on whether it was flying over Syrian territory when it was shot down but I wonder would they be "apologetic" if happened in Syria. Also, why is there no comment from Syria yet?

# ? Jun 22, 2012 17:14

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# ? May 19, 2024 00:13

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Nothing from Syrian State media at all from what I can tell, like it didn't happen.

# ? Jun 22, 2012 17:31

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Speaking of drama there's now rumours Shafiq will be declared president of Egypt on Sunday.

# ? Jun 22, 2012 17:38

TheBalor: Jun 18, 2001

So the way forward for SCAF seems clear. Declare the MB a disruptive presence, anoint Shafiq president, and then just bash heads until the protests stop and the people are suitably cowed. Given their monopoly on force, is there any reason they can't just do that?

# ? Jun 22, 2012 17:54

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Erdogan just gave a press conference, avoided answering too many question, said he didn't know if the planes were shot down, and the pilots are still missing. Could be a major problem for him if the pilots are dead, the public will expect a strong reaction, so he might find it hard to de-escalate the situation without damaging his own reputation.

# ? Jun 22, 2012 17:57

V. Illych L.: Apr 11, 2008; ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

TheBalor posted:

So the way forward for SCAF seems clear. Declare the MB a disruptive presence, anoint Shafiq president, and then just bash heads until the protests stop and the people are suitably cowed. Given their monopoly on force, is there any reason they can't just do that?

I believe the soldiers are still mostly relatively ill-paid conscripts. Push too hard and they'll face a mutiny, especially in this immediate post-revolutionary world.

# ? Jun 22, 2012 18:02

TheBalor: Jun 18, 2001

True, I can't imagine the rank and file would like going from being the toast of tahrir back in 2011 to insurgent-bait in 2013.

# ? Jun 22, 2012 18:05

something original: Sep 9, 2011

TheBalor posted:

So the way forward for SCAF seems clear. Declare the MB a disruptive presence, anoint Shafiq president, and then just bash heads until the protests stop and the people are suitably cowed. Given their monopoly on force, is there any reason they can't just do that?

Some commentators were arguing that that recipe would turn to a disaster if various groups, including religious ones, become radicalized, lose hope in politics and turn into violence, with Al-Qaeda (rhetoric) gaining much influence in Egypt. A (somewhat worse?) version of the Syrian conflict of today. That's not impossible but I'm still hopeful that in this day and age with foreign pressure (meaning both foreign governments and people, organizations etc.) they'll have to gradually concede power to civilians. But it'll be hell of a (hopefully non-violent) ride and take a rather long time. MB's attitude is very very important here, they need to dump bigoted rhetoric as much as they can to gain the support of other groups, i.e. Christians and people who are not religious. A long-ish Mubarak-style period is a possibility too but I think people want a working democracy and a competent economy, and that's something that matters a lot.

# ? Jun 22, 2012 18:19

pantslesswithwolves: Oct 28, 2008

CNN reporting that Nile TV will announce the winner of Egypt's elections tonight, and are citing government sources as saying that Shafiq will win.

I need a Xanax and a stiff drink.

# ? Jun 22, 2012 18:33

computer parts: Nov 18, 2010; PLEASE CLAP

suboptimal posted:

CNN reporting that Nile TV will announce the winner of Egypt's elections tonight, and are citing government sources as saying that Shafiq will win.

I need a Xanax and a stiff drink.

Wouldn't tonight be about now?

Or do you mean like the next morning local time.

# ? Jun 22, 2012 18:45

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Brown Moses posted:

Erdogan just gave a press conference, avoided answering too many question, said he didn't know if the planes were shot down, and the pilots are still missing. Could be a major problem for him if the pilots are dead, the public will expect a strong reaction, so he might find it hard to de-escalate the situation without damaging his own reputation.

At least Hezbollah's tv seems to be certain that it was shot down, and while this is not a primary source by any means there's a chance of it being real insider information. Also there are reports that the pilots are alive, according to Erdogan, but again this is not confirmed. I guess we'll find out in the next couple of days.

BBC posted:

Lebanon's al-Manar television channel - controlled by Lebanon's Shia Hezbollah movement, an ally of the Syrian government - also reported that Syrian security sources had said that "Syrian air defences shot down a Turkish warplane and hit another in Syrian airspace".

Mr Erdogan was also said to have told Turkish reporters on a flight back from Brazil on Friday afternoon that "the other side" had expressed regret over the downing of the F-4, and also that the pilots had been recovered.

# ? Jun 22, 2012 18:53

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

If they release the results tonight (Local Egypt Time), they're begging for riots. It would make much more sense to release it in the morning when people are still sleeping or exhausted. Although, if Shafiq wins, it might not matter.

Tahrir is packed right now as it is.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/20126224915845417.html

# ? Jun 22, 2012 18:55

Mr. Self Destruct: Jan 1, 2008; lary

298298 posted:

This thread is obviously too big for me to search so feel free to ignore it if it's something asked often.

When the Egyptian riots were going on you'd have Fox news talking about the Muslim Brotherhood possibly rising to power while the liberals would say it's just pathetic fear mongering. Isn't that what's happened? If so how exactly did it happen when it was so supposedly unlikely?

Not remotely trying to legitimize Fox news or anything, broken watch twice a day etc.

Fox was basically openly demonstrating their fear/hatred of change and wishing Mubarak was still in power, the liberals were pretending that they weren't supporting and arming the regime for its entire duration.

# ? Jun 22, 2012 20:15

pantslesswithwolves: Oct 28, 2008

A credible source told me that SCAF is in talks with Egypt's political actors that will basically give Shafiq the presidency (despite everyone knowing that Morsi really won) in exchange for the MB picking up a number of cabinet seats and other political goodies. The MB will do their best to keep everyone else in line while opening up another "revolutionary front" that still kind of cooperates with the government.

Glad to see that the dirty dealings and devil's bargains are still fresh in the minds of Egypt's ossified political society.

# ? Jun 22, 2012 21:21

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

This supposedly shows a group of civilians being used as a human shield by Assad's forces
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdiHPECxDHE

# ? Jun 22, 2012 21:27

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Great exclusive from the Guardian, more proxy war fun

quote:

Saudi Arabia plans to fund Syria rebel army

Saudi officials are preparing to pay the salaries of the Free Syria Army as a means of encouraging mass defections from the military and increasing pressure on the Assad regime, the Guardian has learned.

The move, which has been discussed between Riyadh and senior officials in the US and Arab world, is believed to be gaining momentum as a recent flush of weapons sent to rebel forces by Saudi Arabia and Qatar starts to make an impact on battlefields in Syria.

Officials in the Saudi capital embraced the idea when it was put to them by Arab officials in May, according to sources in three Arab states, around the same time that weapons started to flow across the southern Turkish border into the hands of Free Syria Army leaders.

Turkey has also allowed the establishment of a command centre in Istanbul which is co-ordinating supply lines in consultation with FSA leaders inside Syria. The centre is believed to be staffed by up to 22 people, most of them Syrian nationals.

The Guardian witnessed the transfer of weapons in early June near the Turkish frontier. Five men dressed in the style of Gulf Arabs arrived in a police station in the border village of Altima in Syria and finalised a transfer from the Turkish town of Reyhanli of around 50 boxes of rifles and ammunition, as well as a large shipment of medicines.

The men were treated with deference by local FSA leaders and were carrying large bundles of cash. They also received two prisoners held by rebels, who were allegedly members of the pro-regime militia, the Shabiha.

The influx of weapons has reinvigorated the insurrection in northern Syria, which less than six weeks ago was on the verge of being crushed.

The move to pay the guerrilla forces' salaries is seen as a chance to capitalise on the sense of renewed confidence, as well as provide a strong incentive for soldiers and officers to defect. The value of the Syrian pound has fallen sharply in value since the anti-regime revolt started 16 months ago, leading to a dramatic fall in purchasing power.

The plan centres on paying the FSA in either US dollars or euros, meaning their salaries would be restored to their pre-revolution levels, or possibly increased.

The US senator Joe Lieberman, who is actively supporting the Syrian opposition, discussed the issue of FSA salaries during a recent trip to Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.

His spokesman, Whitney Phillips, said: "Senator Lieberman has called for the US to provide robust and comprehensive support to the armed Syrian opposition, in co-ordination with our partners in the Middle East and Europe. He has specifically called for the US to work with our partners to provide the armed Syrian opposition with weapons, training, tactical intelligence, secure communications and other forms of support to change the military balance of power inside Syria.

"Senator Lieberman also supports the idea of ensuring that the armed opposition fighters receive regular and sufficient pay, although he does not believe it is necessary for the United States to provide this funding itself directly."

US defence secretary Leon Panetta said this week Washington was not playing a direct role in gun-running into northern Syria. "We made a decision not to provide lethal assistance at this point. I know others have made their own decisions."

Earlier this week the New York Times reported the CIA was operating in southern Turkey, helping allies decide which opposition fighters would get weapons.

Diplomatic sources have told the Guardian two US intelligence officers were in Syria's third city of Homs between December and early February, trying to establish command and control within rebel ranks.

Interviews with officials in three states reveal the influx of weapons � which includes kalashnikovs, rocket propelled grenades and anti-tank missiles � started in mid-May, when Saudi Arabia and Qatar finally moved on pledges they had made in February and March to arm rebel forces.

The officials, who insisted on anonymity, said the final agreement to move weapons from storage points inside Turkey into rebel hands was hard won, with Ankara first insisting on diplomatic cover from the Arab states and the US.

Turkey is understood to view the weapons supply lines as integral to the protection of its southern border, which is coming under increasing pressure as regime forces edge closer in an attempt to stop the gun-running and attack FSA units.

Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar were all allies of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad until several months into the uprising, which now poses a serious threat to his family's 42-year rule over the country.

All three states have become increasingly hostile as the revolt has continued, with Saudi Arabia in February describing the suggestion to arm rebel groups as an "excellent idea" and Qatar having offered exile to Assad and his family.

For the first few months of this year the three states were waiting for the US to take a proactive role in intervening in Syria, something Washington has so far not seriously considered.

With a presidential election later this year, and weighed down by the troubled legacy of Iraq, Barack Obama has shown no enthusiasm for a major foreign policy play. Polling in the US has consistently shown that voters have little appetite for intervention in Syria, while officials from Washington to London and Brussels have warned of grave risks to the region which may follow the fall of Damascus.

Assad continues to cast his regime's battle for survival as an existential threat from radical Sunni Islamists, who he says are backed by foreign states.

The Free Syria Army says its members are almost exclusively Syrian nationalists who disavow the world view of jihadists who flocked to neighbouring Iraq from 2004-07. It acknowledges that some foreign Arab fighters have travelled to Syria to join its ranks, particularly in Homs and in Douma near Damascus, but claims they do not play a decisive role.

Intelligence officials say a power vacuum would provide an attractive environment for militants who espouse a global jihad world view. "The next three to six months are crucial in Syria," one official said. "The ingredients are right for them [jihadists] to turn up and start acting decisively. That would not be a good outcome."

# ? Jun 22, 2012 21:36

zero alpha: Feb 18, 2012; by Y Kant Ozma Post

quote:

"The next three to six months are crucial in Syria," one official said.

Thomas Friedman?

zero alpha fucked around with this message at 21:51 on Jun 22, 2012

# ? Jun 22, 2012 21:48

Patter Song: Mar 26, 2010; Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.; Fun Shoe

So...is Egypt discussion in suspended animation until SCAF makes its declaration?

I'm surprised how little discussion there is in here, considering it's the big day.

# ? Jun 22, 2012 21:55

EBT: Oct 29, 2005; by Ralp

cloudchamber posted:

Syria's Olympics shief has been denied entry to the London Games:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18550862

Why does the article paint the picture that the IOC could overrule a country about denying a visa to someone?

# ? Jun 22, 2012 22:01

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

The Turkish government has confirmed the airplane was shot down by the Syrians.

[edit] And the pilots are missing.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 22:14 on Jun 22, 2012

# ? Jun 22, 2012 22:09

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

EBT posted:

Why does the article paint the picture that the IOC could overrule a country about denying a visa to someone?

They have no jurisdiction over UK, but they could just call off the games if they thought that UK was playing politics with the games they are hosting. So in that sense it remains to be accepted by IOC.

Of course they won't cancel the games, but it is possible that they will ask the government to cancel the decision because Olympics and human rights are polar opposites.

# ? Jun 22, 2012 22:11

EBT: Oct 29, 2005; by Ralp

Ah ok, Though I figured they were contractually locked in to London by now. I suppose it works the opposite way and the host country is actually locked in to having an obnoxious, expensive house guest that wrecks the toilet on the last day.

# ? Jun 22, 2012 22:13

J33uk: Oct 24, 2005

You sign a hell of a lot of stuff over to the IOC when you agree to host the games. See the bizarre restrictions on businesses actually using the word Olympics etc.

As to the Syrian shoot down of the Turkish fighter (and when I got up this morning I never thought I'd be typing that) I've got to imagine that the chain of command has gone to hell in Syria with all the defections and general chaos. I wonder how long neighboring countries are going to put up with a failing state next door to them. It's not like things are going to become any more contained anytime soon.

# ? Jun 22, 2012 22:15

Patter Song: Mar 26, 2010; Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.; Fun Shoe

A lot depends on whether the Turkish pilots are alive or dead. If they are, in fact, dead, Erdogan will be under immense pressure from an internal war lobby.

# ? Jun 22, 2012 22:17

Mc Do Well: Aug 2, 2008; by FactsAreUseless

The IOC is the vanguard of the Global Elite, you'd better believe they have final say and if you don't respect them they'll pack up their things and go somewhere else.

You should be honored to have that house guest over!

*derail over*

# ? Jun 22, 2012 22:22

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

az jan jananam posted:

These women put out this video in January.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vowbuLxK7po

Here's another one
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0av3ZtIEH0

# ? Jun 22, 2012 22:44

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Syrian TV is now talking about the incident, claiming the Turkish aircraft was show down while flying low and fast over Syria, about 1km inside the border.

# ? Jun 22, 2012 22:57

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Here's a interesting piece of analysis on the situation
http://theaviationist.com/2012/06/22/tuaf-f4-shot-down/
I still fancy the theory that they shot it down because they misidentified it as a defecting plane.

# ? Jun 22, 2012 23:25

J33uk: Oct 24, 2005

Well that'd conflict with the Syrian TV account regarding the altitude of the plane but all the details are so drat vague at this point it's impossible to determine much of anything. The lack of confirmation about the status of the crew unfortunately does point to them being dead as well. Both Turkey and Syria will want to de-escalate this as quickly as possible and confirming that the crew are alive would help massively to do that. This just underlines the real problem that the world is facing, Syria as a functioning state is slowly falling apart. Syria is too big, too well armed, too economically important and is located in a too volatile region to let this happen without spillover into other countries.

Edit: I do like the defecting plane theory just for the sheer Clancy novel feel of it.

# ? Jun 22, 2012 23:38

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Can anyone provide info on what's being said in this video, supposedly showing the jet being shot down
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdIEmyvyJYo
Personally I think it's bullshit, but any additional info would be helpful.

# ? Jun 22, 2012 23:46

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Brown Moses posted:

Can anyone provide info on what's being said in this video, supposedly showing the jet being shot down
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdIEmyvyJYo
Personally I think it's bullshit, but any additional info would be helpful.

The hell... that sounds like someone's firing shots with an AK or other small automatic weapon (for fun, I'd guess). Complete bullshit. If you're going to shoot down a jet fighter, you will need missiles. 23mm AA guns may have a chance, but then the plane has to come close enough that it should be seen and heard on the video. And those guns sound nothing like that video.

# ? Jun 22, 2012 23:59

rocket_man38: Jan 23, 2006; My life is a barrel o' fun!!

So will Turkey realistically fight a war against Syria over this? Or just do some posturing?

# ? Jun 23, 2012 00:32

New Division: Jun 23, 2004; I beg to present to you as a Christmas gift, Mr. Lombardi, the city of Detroit.

rocket_man38 posted:

So will Turkey realistically fight a war against Syria over this? Or just do some posturing?

An actual war as in a invasion of Syria? I have my doubts the Turkish government wants to escalate that much, but I would want to know how much public opinion in the country favors the idea of a war with Syria.

An air campaign might be more feasible, but then Turkey might want to bring in NATO (i.e. the US Air Force and Navy)

# ? Jun 23, 2012 00:40

Mister Gopher: Oct 27, 2004; I eat my own poop; Soiled Meat

rocket_man38 posted:

So will Turkey realistically fight a war against Syria over this? Or just do some posturing?

No war of course (why on Earth would you invade Syria in this chaos), but it boils down to 2 possibilities.

1) Cooler heads prevail, the incident is 'forgotten', like the other Syrian firings on the Turkish border in the last 8 months.

2) The incident picks up, more covert or overt funding of the Syrian Resistance, and the Turks put more pressure on Russia to allow some sort of condemnation/action.
The Turks have a lot of leverage with Russia currently, expect it to be used behind the scenes in a face-saving way.

Oh, and Egypt is going to poo poo quickly now. Libya is seeing some rebel splits and seizures, Tunisia is in a state of high tension, and Iraq is carbomb central recently.

# ? Jun 23, 2012 00:56

camel melt: Sep 21, 2006

Brown Moses posted:

I could do with some help on this video, it claims to show captured Iranian soldiers in Syria
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQQ2cj-9BBs
You can watch it in HD to get a better look at their IDs, any additional info on this would be very useful, as you can imagine.

A friend says they are holding their passports and what looks like special driver's licenses containing health information like blood type, but it's hard to make out the content. Some of them say ویژه رانندگان , meaning, roughly, "special for drivers," "for drivers only", etc.

# ? Jun 23, 2012 01:40

New Division: Jun 23, 2004; I beg to present to you as a Christmas gift, Mr. Lombardi, the city of Detroit.

Was the Turkish plane over Syrian airspace when it got shot down? The Syrian media is claiming that, and while they're certainly unreliable the Turkish government does not appear to be contesting the claim too much at the moment. The plane might have been running a reconnaissance mission inside Syria.

# ? Jun 23, 2012 01:53

Toplowtech: Aug 31, 2004

rocket_man38 posted:

So will Turkey realistically fight a war against Syria over this? Or just do some posturing?

Had Syria shot down an airliner with civilians inside instead of a warplane, I could see an invasion happen. But just one military jet? I doubt Turkey will do anything more than posturing because Syria can just claim the plane was spying on them on wrong side of the frontier.

Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 03:56 on Jun 23, 2012

# ? Jun 23, 2012 02:23

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

Man would I have liked to have been a fly on the wall during Obama and Putin's meeting last week. Russian intelligence must have been aware by then that Saudi, and likely US money in some fashion, was paying for weapons that had been flowing into Syria since mid May. And CIA in Homs in December? They both knew it. And we just shut down them funneling more Hinds in.

Obama is on damage control. Assad started a fight and it failed to end with any peaceful negotiating.

War in another middle eastern country is essentially off the table politically and financially, but an unstable Syrian state is equally dangerous. Not only because of humanitarian reasons, but geopolitically. Tensions in the Arab world don't need to be any tighter. That band is about to break. But an extremist orginization desperate for an opotrunity obtaining control of Syria after the fall of Assad is equally off the table.

So what is there to do? Finance and administer the opposition. It's far less costly than sending in the Calvary (see Iraq, Afghanistan x2 - Ruskies too, Vietnam. The list goes on), comes with little baggage if it fails (apart front the consequences of failure that would/could have happened without intervention), and offers leverage in the event of success. It may not be the loveliest of pictures. In turn we have guaranteed fighting which means more civilian casualties and general humanitarian issues.
Strategies must also include 'for the greater good'.

The political and historical complexities and drama involved in this crisis is astounding. Syria is such a cornerstone to the region politically. I sure as poo poo wouldn't want to be the guy that has to call the shots.

Sivias fucked around with this message at 03:17 on Jun 23, 2012

# ? Jun 23, 2012 03:14

sum: Nov 15, 2010

If your best-case scenario is sending in the CIA you might want to re-evaluate your thinking, really.

# ? Jun 23, 2012 03:38

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# ? May 19, 2024 00:13

Canadian Surf Club: Feb 15, 2008; Word.

Sivias posted:

Man would I have liked to have been a fly on the wall during Obama and Putin's meeting last week. Russian intelligence must have been aware by then that Saudi, and likely US money in some fashion, was paying for weapons that had been flowing into Syria since mid May. And CIA in Homs in December? They both knew it. And we just shut down them funneling more Hinds in.

Obama is on damage control. Assad started a fight and it failed to end with any peaceful negotiating.

War in another middle eastern country is essentially off the table politically and financially, but an unstable Syrian state is equally dangerous. Not only because of humanitarian reasons, but geopolitically. Tensions in the Arab world don't need to be any tighter. That band is about to break. But an extremist orginization desperate for an opotrunity obtaining control of Syria after the fall of Assad is equally off the table.

So what is there to do? Finance and administer the opposition. It's far less costly than sending in the Calvary (see Iraq, Afghanistan x2 - Ruskies too, Vietnam. The list goes on), comes with little baggage if it fails (apart front the consequences of failure that would/could have happened without intervention), and offers leverage in the event of success. It may not be the loveliest of pictures. In turn we have guaranteed fighting which means more civilian casualties and general humanitarian issues.
Strategies must also include 'for the greater good'.

The political and historical complexities and drama involved in this crisis is astounding. Syria is such a cornerstone to the region politically. I sure as poo poo wouldn't want to be the guy that has to call the shots.

This seems to be the idea

quote:

Saudi Arabia plans to fund Syria rebel army
Exclusive: Command centre in Turkey organising weapon supply to opposition

Saudi officials are preparing to pay the salaries of the Free Syria Army as a means of encouraging mass defections from the military and increasing pressure on the Assad regime, the Guardian has learned.

The move, which has been discussed between Riyadh and senior officials in the US and Arab world, is believed to be gaining momentum as a recent flush of weapons sent to rebel forces by Saudi Arabia and Qatar starts to make an impact on battlefields in Syria.

Officials in the Saudi capital embraced the idea when it was put to them by Arab officials in May, according to sources in three Arab states, around the same time that weapons started to flow across the southern Turkish border into the hands of Free Syria Army leaders.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/22/saudi-arabia-syria-rebel-army

I can only feel like they're just hoping a competent opposition forms together and the reality may be the whole thing just fizzles and turns into a huge refugee crisis because there just isn't enough people to stand against and organized standing army. Alongside the potential for this free flow of weapons to leak outside the one region.

edit: efb why did I think I could beat Brown Moses

# ? Jun 23, 2012 05:26

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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