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spankminister posted:I'm having trouble seeing what's wrong with their balance sheet.
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Jul 3, 2012 20:54
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I like ALU because of the risk to reward ratio. The financials are good too and it recently got into core router market with it's top of the line core router. Definitely a long hold for me. If there isn't any price rise by the beginning of 2013, I'm out. Yeah the profits are there yet but I think they will be. Eventually... COUNTIN THE BILLIES fucked around with this message at 04:02 on Jul 4, 2012 |
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Jul 3, 2012 21:21
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spankminister posted:Can I ask why? People alternately treat this one as either a hopeful or stock exchange poison, and I'm having trouble seeing what's wrong with their balance sheet. They have an accumulated loss of 20 billion dollars, their PPE is heavily depreciated and their attempts to sustain it are causing cash flow problems. They also recently paid off a shitload of debt, much of which was current. This leads me to believe their operations are dwindling and that they may have future liquidity problems. The company is arguably insolvent if you assume an impairment of Goodwill.
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Jul 3, 2012 21:34
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gvibes posted:Inability to make profits? Fair enough on the profits, but I was more wondering about what specifically about the numbers warranted concern. Not to be argumentative, but because I want to learn what level of ROCE or debt/equity numbers people think constitute a bad company. And also if it's bad enough for a stock this cheap for a company that is attempting to adapt into new markets. Edit: Cheesemaster200 posted:They have an accumulated loss of 20 billion dollars, their PPE is heavily depreciated and their attempts to sustain it are causing cash flow problems. Where do I get those numbers? On their income statement I see a (392,000) which is a 392 million loss, right? By accumulated loss, you're referring to their precipitous drop from their peak, I assume. spankminister fucked around with this message at 21:57 on Jul 3, 2012 |
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Jul 3, 2012 21:42
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spankminister posted:Where do I get those numbers? On their income statement I see a (392,000) which is a 392 million loss, right? By accumulated loss, you're referring to their precipitous drop from their peak, I assume. On the balance sheet under equity, where retained earnings should be
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Jul 4, 2012 16:37
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Nobody uses Lucent anymore. Really all the hype about anyone taking market share from Cisco is about on the same level as the hype of Linux taking market share from Apple / Microsoft. The conversation for anything enterprise grade starts and ends with Cisco, except for that one guy that brings up Juniper every time to get a laugh.
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Jul 4, 2012 19:39
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Also Lucent managers are the most sterotypically terrible people ever. I think ATT put all their worst managers in the Lucent boat and set it adrift. And they are awesome at covering their asses and shifting blame to anyone else, so I'm sure most of them have survived Alcatel in the quest to hang on until their grandfathered pensions fully vest. I lost hundreds of thousands on Lucent because I believed in our companys product, but it was swallowed up by the shittiness of Rich Mcginn, Carly Fiorina, and all the other clones. Stay the gently caress away.
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Jul 4, 2012 21:01
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Great explanation of the LIBOR scandal from Marketplace. Surprised there isn't more vitriol in the American press over it. http://www.marketplace.org/topics/world/easy-street/libor-mortals-easy-explainer
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Jul 4, 2012 23:07
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Most loans are based upon a 6 months moving averages so specific days rates don't really bother anyone that isn't betting on that days rate. We already know all bankers are to incompetent to make money without being crooks.
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Jul 5, 2012 03:36
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Elephanthead posted:Most loans are based upon a 6 months moving averages so specific days rates don't really bother anyone that isn't betting on that days rate. We already know all bankers are to incompetent to make money without being crooks. This is an interesting thesis right here.
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Jul 5, 2012 03:43
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Elephanthead posted:Most loans are based upon a 6 months moving averages so specific days rates don't really bother anyone that isn't betting on that days rate. We already know all bankers are to incompetent to make money without being crooks. You missed the auction-rate securities collusion, where banks made millions, maybe billions.
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Jul 5, 2012 05:14
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http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CLSN So I've been watching this stock climb up for the past few days yet am having a difficult time pulling the trigger and jumping in myself. I didn't have the cash nor the risk tolerance to buy it when it was skirting around the two dollar mark. Anyone else have huge success stories with lowly biotech stocks tripling in value over the short course of a week or two? I know these biotech stocks are a huge risk but this one sounds like a great play. The 1 yr target estimate is 9 instead of 7 now. Thats got to mean something, right? Also is it possible using google finance or yahoo to check how much volume has been traded over a certain period of time? Like in the month of april or for a certain week instead of just seeing how much volume was traded on a daily basis? Kneel Before Zog fucked around with this message at 15:06 on Jul 5, 2012 |
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Jul 5, 2012 14:56
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Kneel Before Zog posted:http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CLSN mik posted:Well there you go, it's up 4.5% pre-market. Dolphin fucked around with this message at 15:45 on Jul 5, 2012 |
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Jul 5, 2012 15:39
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Ahh, right on schedule, it's AAPL's pre-earnings run! This is why the s&p is down .25 and the nasdaq is up .25. Sep630s were 15.00 on Monday, now they're about 25.00. Also, V and AGNC  .
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Jul 5, 2012 16:09
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Kneel Before Zog posted:http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CLSN Please do not use equity research analysts' price targets as a basis for your investment. If you really want to use equity research as your investment thesis, read their research reports instead. Price targets are often arbitrary (eg. 30x what they think 2013 earnings are). Edit: also seconding the scary balance sheet shensterz fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Jul 5, 2012 |
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Jul 5, 2012 16:20
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NEON is up around 75% since they popped on the slide to unlock patent article by Altucher. They still have two more quarters until they are even projected to be profitable and I could see a lot of retail traders dumping shares when earnings disappoint a couple times and an AAPL buyout still hasn't happened (it won't). I am highly considering shorting.
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Jul 5, 2012 16:35
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Unless you're an expert on the subject (the drug, the disease, the clinicians/researchers involved, the biology, the genetics, etc) then don't fool yourself: this is a lottery ticket.
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Jul 5, 2012 19:42
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I'm kicking myself for not buying it earlier. If I wanted to short this stock, would it be as simple as buying puts at the price its at now and hoping it goes down in value greater then the ask price for the option to turn a profit?
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Jul 5, 2012 21:38
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Kneel Before Zog posted:http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CLSN I know there's such a thing as confirmation bias, but I've never actually seen someone soliciting it before. Who has failure stories about speculative biotech stocks?
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Jul 5, 2012 21:55
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I just always thought of biotech as a completely separate thing. Either the drug is approved and the thing skyrockets, or it isn't approved and it plummets. With weeks and weeks of stagnation inbetween. For the typical investor it's just a coin flip.
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Jul 5, 2012 22:02
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Turkeybone posted:I just always thought of biotech as a completely separate thing. Either the drug is approved and the thing skyrockets, or it isn't approved and it plummets. With weeks and weeks of stagnation inbetween. For the typical investor it's just a coin flip. Really you can view it almost as a 'real option'. Damodaran of NYU talks about valuing patents for biotech firms (as an example) in his Valuation class (http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/). Although this is even more speculative than the example he uses, so it's really just a pure gamble for the non-expert.
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Jul 5, 2012 22:11
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Kneel Before Zog posted:I'm kicking myself for not buying it earlier. If I wanted to short this stock, would it be as simple as buying puts at the price its at now and hoping it goes down in value greater then the ask price for the option to turn a profit?
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Jul 5, 2012 22:13
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I'm also curious in how much importance I should be putting In looking at a stocks resistance/support levels. Is this solely a technical analysis train of thought or is it used by many investors?
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Jul 5, 2012 22:37
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Has anyone heard of dfn.to? It's a dividend split corporation. When my mother was still in charge of one of my accounts she traded me for some bonds that were about to mature for a pile of dfn.to shares. Unfortunately this was around 2007 at its peak value and has dropped almost 50% since then. They pay regular monthly dividends and I've held on to it for the dividends and as a future potential tax write off. Unfortunately the trend appears to be negative for this company looking at its record and balance sheet. I never would have purchased these shares myself given the opacity of what they do with your money, but if you were in my shoes would you sell and eat the loss or just hold out and keep collecting dividends? I'm thinking of selling it the next time it makes its way to around $12.50 since that seems to be its barrier. http://www.google.ca/finance?q=TSE:DFN
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Jul 5, 2012 22:42
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Dreaming Android posted:Really you can view it almost as a 'real option'. Damodaran of NYU talks about valuing patents for biotech firms (as an example) in his Valuation class (http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/). Although this is even more speculative than the example he uses, so it's really just a pure gamble for the non-expert. Yeah, I guess that's a better way of putting it. For me personally though, it's not my cup of tea.
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Jul 5, 2012 23:10
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Kneel Before Zog posted:I'm also curious in how much importance I should be putting In looking at a stocks resistance/support levels. Is this solely a technical analysis train of thought or is it used by many investors? That's something you are going to have to decide for yourself. A lot of trader's use technicals, and many claim that they use them profitably. However, In my experience I haven't seen much proof that it works. My advice (which is next to worthless since I'm just some dude on the internet) is to do some reading on technical indicators and try to understand their applications and the reasoning behind them. Then, you can decide for yourself whether or not support and resistance is worth looking into.
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Jul 5, 2012 23:48
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Kneel Before Zog posted:I'm also curious in how much importance I should be putting In looking at a stocks resistance/support levels. Is this solely a technical analysis train of thought or is it used by many investors? I think most support/resistance levels are bogus. I like the much more objective stuff like Bollinger Bands and Donchian channels. Check out the books mentioned in the OP, they're pretty good.
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Jul 6, 2012 00:18
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Kneel Before Zog posted:I'm also curious in how much importance I should be putting In looking at a stocks resistance/support levels. Is this solely a technical analysis train of thought or is it used by many investors? As far as I've read, support/resistance prices are only noteworthy as psychological barriers for investors. As with most technical indicators, you should treat them not as absolutes but as supplements to more serious scrutiny of the investment.
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Jul 6, 2012 01:02
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Support and resistance lines are tricky because you, the frightened little investor, define them. So say if you say "I want to sell at 19.95", and then it gets there, and you feel bad about booking a loss, so you say "oh, well the stock went as low as $18 back in February, that's my new stop." And so on and so on. So yeah I'm sure I'm not the first one to say it, but I like to follow "research tells me what to buy, chart analysis tells me when to buy," or I guess for me, more when to sell. I like using bollinger bands, too; when they are very close together (AAPL 5 days ago), well the stock is in a volatility squeeze, as they say, so it has the potential (energy) to have a strong move (up or down, really). So rather than try and buy during the squeeze, I'll just admit that I won't get the first 10%, and wait for some meaningful move out of whatever range the stock was in before. On a weekly chart, one could argue that MSFT has been in a volatility squeeze for a year (decade). So then what about a chart like AMZN on May 30th?  On the one hand, you can say "well the stock was at 230 and just crapped out, time to sell." Or you could say "well last time it touched the 50dma, it bounced off, so it will do the same." Or you could say "210 was the old top, so now that's the new bottom." You could really talk yourself in circles and make any case you want. The key, I think, is to pick something and lock it in, in a "cold" state, and then afterwards decide how you could do better.
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Jul 6, 2012 09:33
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Do you guys have investment philosophies? Personally, I see myself as a student of Warren Buffet, and I focus only on the fundamentals. I try to act as if the stock market wasn't even there (I have to admit that this is much easier said than done).
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Jul 7, 2012 05:34
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Paul Tudor Jones II got me into this whole trading thing. His section in Market Wizards and then the movie Trader, about him. It all got me to look at the business more and eventually love it. Since then, I love reading any interview or advice from Ray Dalio. Profile of Seth Klarman from the newest Economist: http://www.economist.com/node/21558274 COUNTIN THE BILLIES fucked around with this message at 03:21 on Jul 9, 2012 |
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Jul 7, 2012 07:34
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Turkeybone posted:Support and resistance lines are tricky because you, the frightened little investor, define them. So say if you say "I want to sell at 19.95", and then it gets there, and you feel bad about booking a loss, so you say "oh, well the stock went as low as $18 back in February, that's my new stop." And so on and so on. So true. You can use fundamental or technicals or your own gut but whatever it is, you can run yourself into circles and make excuses as to why the price of a security is undervalued or overvalued. But if you don't grab hold of your nuts and take the plunge on one side or the other, you will lose every trade.
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Jul 7, 2012 07:44
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Another decent day despite the indices being down. AGNC is nice as always, V is sucking on a downgrade but I'm not too worried about it, AAPL is doing its pre-earnings thing, and even FB decided to get in on it today. I put some money to work against BBY, but it'll be awhile before anything comes from that.
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Jul 9, 2012 16:37
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Turkeybone posted:Another decent day despite the indices being down. AGNC is nice as always, V is sucking on a downgrade but I'm not too worried about it, AAPL is doing its pre-earnings thing, and even FB decided to get in on it today. I take it you don't think BBY is getting bought?
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Jul 9, 2012 18:51
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Foma posted:I take it you don't think BBY is getting bought? I'm not confident that anyone would want them. There isn't a single product or service that is done better at Best Buy.. I think it would be a big money sink to try and turn it around.. I mean their best hope is to become Apple stores that are 10x too large. But then again, I'm not placing a huge amount against them (<.005% of my cash). edit: Also looking at the chart, there was a big rejection of BBY over 22, so I think we'll see some more "get out while you can" kind of action. Turkeybone fucked around with this message at 19:13 on Jul 9, 2012 |
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Jul 9, 2012 19:07
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Turkeybone posted:I'm not confident that anyone would want them. There isn't a single product or service that is done better at Best Buy.. I think it would be a big money sink to try and turn it around.. I mean their best hope is to become Apple stores that are 10x too large.
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Jul 9, 2012 19:32
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Anyone have thoughts on BIDU? I know that dear old dad wants to go long in some way, but I feel meh about it. Dropping in the short term, stagnant in the long term, and I think that it'll totally get dragged down with any euro/china slowdown talk. Like it would be fine to do what the original plan was, park the money mostly in high yield stuff; hell we could've put it all in AGNC and called it a day. But the majority of the losses come when he wants to gently caress around with BIDU or MS and other things that "cant possibly go any lower"  .
Turkeybone fucked around with this message at 19:56 on Jul 9, 2012 |
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Jul 9, 2012 19:54
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BIDU just hasnt had any traction since there 10 to 1 split from 770 to 70. They topped at $140 and have been bouncing the $120 mark.....for quite some time now.\ Like AGNC, I am glad that ARR has finally started to climb that hill again!
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Jul 9, 2012 20:29
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Yeah, most of the REITs (AGNC, ARR, NLY, HTS, TWO, etc)are doing pretty well.. they indirectly benefit from the troubled waters, as the Fed will probably continue to not gently caress with interest rates for awhile. It's really just dumb luck that I chose to sell CIM to raise some cash.
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Jul 9, 2012 20:52
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Can anyone suggest a site or blog that goes over why that days highest/lowest price gainers jumped or dropped in price?
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Jul 9, 2012 23:30
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