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Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

A state security building in Damascus has been hit a massive bomb during a meeting of senior military and ministrial figures, with State TV report serious injuries, and other reports of the Minister of Defence being killed, and other senior military figures.

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Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

State TV confirms the minister of defense was killed, there's reports the suicide bomber was his own bodyguard.

Pieter Pan
May 16, 2004
Bad faith argument here:
-------------------------------->

something original posted:

Past is past. Now there are several Kurdish language TV channels, radios and other media. The state is operating a Kurdish TV (and a radio) channel called TRT6 and recently the prime minister said they will offer students optional Kurdish lessons in state schools from now on. There is still a lot to do but there's also a will to reform stuff. In no way I would call this actively suppressing Kurdish culture.

I wouldn't call the opening of TRT6 a big achievement really. A single Kurdish language TV station in almost a century time is a mockery. It's like throwing someone in a river and then offering him a finger to climb back up. TRT 6 is non-free state channel (a propaganda channel pretty much) and its founding is mostly aimed at countering the Kurdish satellite channel Roj TV which is sympathetic to the PKK.

quote:

As for "seperation", even the PKK say they don't want to separate, I mean these are the people that are in armed conflict with the state, but even if they do want to separate, only a minority of Kurds support PKK's political wing (which is a party in the parliament).

That the PKK doesn't want to seperate anymore is mostly a tactical position. They would be content with an autonomous Kurdish region in Turkey which would be a huge step forward. It's like the Tibetans who say they wish more autonomy, but that doesn't mean they would oppose independence if it were to be possible. I also don't think Kurdish political parties in the Turkish parliament is very representative on what Kurdish people want since many Kurdish parties have been banned or kicked out of parliament (including in recent years).

The best solution would be to let every Kurdish region in Turkey hold a referendum asking if they wish to be part of an autonomous republic inside Turkey or an independent state separate from Turkey. This would probably result in two smaller Kurdish states, one inside Turkey and another one outside. It would also end the armed conflict, which Turkey will never be able to end through military force. But this is never going to happen.

Section 31
Mar 4, 2012
What does that mean?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Section 31 posted:

What does that mean?

Shits just hit the fan for Assad, apparently the interior minister and head of intelligence are critically injured as well.

Chortles
Dec 29, 2008
Source on these confirmations, considering that AP (on Yahoo!) and NYT only had SANA mention the attack itself and woundings without anyone ID'd yet?

Section 31
Mar 4, 2012

Brown Moses posted:

Shits just hit the fan for Assad, apparently the interior minister and head of intelligence are critically injured as well.
Some twitt mentioned that it's strange the state TV would report it, or it isn't?

Also, his own bodyguard is the suicide bomber? Talking about sleeper agent...

RandomPauI
Nov 24, 2006


Grimey Drawer
Assad's brother is a general right?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

SANA has reported the minister is killed, their site is down at the moment, but AJE, Reuters, etc have just been Tweeting it. AJE reported that the suicide bomber was the bodyguard, and the other two are injured. Very reliable reports from Damascus are saying one of the hospitals has been surrounded by military and security as well.

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

This is almost like the Wolfsschanze plot.

Shadoer
Aug 31, 2011


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Yeah, if it's the bodyguard, I really wonder if this isn't part of a wider attempt at a coup as opposed to the Free Syrian Army sending Assad one hell of a message.

Mokotow posted:

This is almost like the Wolfsschanze plot.

Isn't it the anniversary of that plot too?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Shadoer posted:

Yeah, if it's the bodyguard, I really wonder if this isn't part of a wider attempt at a coup as opposed to the Free Syrian Army sending Assad one hell of a message.


Isn't it the anniversary of that plot too?

July 20th. I expect Assad's reaction to this will be brutal.

Chortles
Dec 29, 2008
Here's a link to the Reuters confirmation, although only the defense minister is named.

something original
Sep 9, 2011

Brown Blitzkrieg posted:

In what ways, precisely, do democratic reforms lead to stability, prosperity or more overall happiness?
In that context a democratic Syria (and Iran) would be more stable, because people have more respect to their government if it's democratic, it will be seen as legitimate as "it's what the people wanted." This stability would spread to the economy in numerous ways and people would be more content with their lives.

quote:

Russia's foreign policy has anything to do with the way things are in Russia now is hilarious
I think their foreign policy would change under a solid democratic system. Putin and the oligarchs influence foreign policy with their individual worldviews and business interests.

quote:

If anything, a "moderating" (read: less aggressive) shift in their foreign policy would make things even worse on the ground for the ordinary Russian than they are now.
I don't think Putin's corrupt dealings in various arenas are actually helping ordinary Russians.

quote:

Iraq was literally better off under Saddam Hussein's iron fist
I don't agree that Iraq under Saddam was better but Iraq today is also under too much Iranian government influence and their prime minister is accused of running the country like a dictator by the Kurds in the North, by their coalition partners, by even prominent Shias like Sadr.

quote:

Qatar is the best place in the region to live.
Don't know much about life in Qatar but it still doesn't change the facts about democratic government.

something original fucked around with this message at 12:21 on Jul 18, 2012

Pegged Lamb
Nov 5, 2007
Probation
Can't post for 3 years!
I'm sure it feels different on the ground, but this revolution seems to be cruising by olate. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/19/world/middleeast/suicide-attack-reported-in-damascus-as-more-generals-flee.html?_r=1&hp

Pegged Lamb fucked around with this message at 11:57 on Jul 18, 2012

Corny
Feb 18, 2006

i am scared
The only thing sweeter than seeing Gadhafi fall will be seeing Assad fall. Then again, none of these will be as sweet as seeing Putin run out of the Kremlin. Or also, for that matter, a mass breakout of Evin prison.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Al Arabiya and The Lebanon Daily Star are reporting Assad's brother-in-law Asef Shawkat was also killed.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

The interior minister has also reportedly died.

Vetitum
Feb 29, 2008

quote:

11.57am: Syrian TV is now saying Assad's brother-in-law, Assef Shawkat, is dead.
from the Guardian live blog

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

Watching the twitter feed explode BM it's amazing, who didn't they kill in that explosion?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

If the reported deaths are true that would be:
The Minister of Interior
The Minister of Defence
Deputy Minister of Defence (and Assad's brother in law)
The Head of the National Security Council

One would be major, all four is crazy.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Section 31 posted:

Some twitt mentioned that it's strange the state TV would report it, or it isn't?

Not so strange. The purpose of state media especially at times of crisis is to control public attitudes, and that can't be done by staying silent - it would only give credibility to rumours.

Vetitum
Feb 29, 2008

I'm sure the fact that Rajha was an Orthodox Christian will be used pretty quickly as a sign of the 'radical islamist' motivations harboured by the FSA and revolution in general.

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!
Well this certainly blows the situation wide open :downsrim:

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Brown Moses posted:

If the reported deaths are true that would be:
The Minister of Interior
The Minister of Defence
Deputy Minister of Defence (and Assad's brother in law)
The Head of the National Security Council

One would be major, all four is crazy.

Also, if it was a bodyguard, then it means that there's infiltrators inside internal security. Even if it was a "lone wolf", it has to put Assad on edge to think his personal detail might walk up and pull a gun on him or blow up.

Corny
Feb 18, 2006

i am scared
The new thread title is incredibly apt, props to whoever decided to change it.

The question I have to ask is how this bombing is going to change the regimes strategy for putting down the revolution. It's a fear of mine that we're going to see those chemical weapons brought out very quickly after this.

Punk da Bundo
Dec 29, 2006

by FactsAreUseless
So how long before one of the Western powers intervenes because it's "the moral thing to do".

something original
Sep 9, 2011

Pieter posted:

I wouldn't call the opening of TRT6 a big achievement really.
I gave the TRT6 example as a response to the claim about suppressing Kurdish culture and denying that the Kurds exist. Regardless, it made most Kurds hopeful because ,considering Turkey's past, it signified a change of official attitude. TRT6 and private Kurdish channels are a step in a gradual process.

quote:

That the PKK doesn't want to seperate anymore is mostly a tactical position.
I have no idea what their chaotic leadershipt might actually be thinking.

quote:

I also don't think Kurdish political parties in the Turkish parliament is very representative on what Kurdish people want since many Kurdish parties have been banned or kicked out of parliament (including in recent years).
It's the same party, it was banned several times, they formed it again, they're in the parliament. The current government did some stuff to ensure that they don't get banned again. Which also is a step in the process. There are also Kurdish parties that don't support the PKK, outside the parliament.

quote:

The best solution would be to let every Kurdish region in Turkey hold a referendum asking if they wish to be part of an autonomous republic inside Turkey or an independent state separate from Turkey. This would probably result in two smaller Kurdish states, one inside Turkey and another one outside. It would also end the armed conflict, which Turkey will never be able to end through military force. But this is never going to happen.
Well after this process I'm talking about, I mean after achieving the goals about autonomy, this could eventually happen. But there are other complexities about PKK, their motivations, their sabotaging of peace process that would lead to some sort of deal to end the conflict.

Seizure Meat
Jul 23, 2008

by Smythe
Well, if Assad was staying in Damascus, he just jumped into a convoy and will spend the rest of this conflict on the move. No way a guy like him is going to stay in one place now.

That could be one of the most successful suicide bombers in history. That's a crazy turn of events.

Rip Testes
Jan 29, 2004

I never forget a face, but in your case I'll be glad to make an exception.
Not a good sign when the guy in charge of defense can't even defend himself.

Assad will likely flip his poo poo. He has to, because this has to be a tremendous morale boost to the opposition and has to certainly prove their capability to any fence sitters in the Syrian public.

What's the likelihood of a coup at some point?

Torka
Jan 5, 2008

Pon de Bundy posted:

So how long before one of the Western powers intervenes because it's "the moral thing to do".

What would be in it for them?

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

Rip Testes posted:

What's the likelihood of a coup at some point?

Imagine being the next guy in line for any of the four jobs that just got blown up. I reckon you might start to be willing to think about bumping off the big guy and making out with your life.

Punk da Bundo
Dec 29, 2006

by FactsAreUseless

Torka posted:

What would be in it for them?

"Advisor" status in the new Syrian government and a push against Russian influence in the region I guess, but other than that I have no idea.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
According to Syrian tv the minister of interior Mohammad Ibrahim al-Shaar is alive and stable, whatever that means.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Torka posted:

What would be in it for them?

Nostalgia for the successes in Iraq and Afghanistan.

So far two are still confirmed dead by State TV.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2019

Brown Moses posted:

If the reported deaths are true that would be:
The Minister of Interior
The Minister of Defence
Deputy Minister of Defence (and Assad's brother in law)
The Head of the National Security Council

One would be major, all four is crazy.

Reuters headline now says

quote:

BREAKING NEWS: Syrian state TV says interior minister is alive, in "stable condition", after Arab TV stations reported his death

Edit: Sorry, beaten

farraday
Jan 10, 2007

Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Brown Moses posted:

If the reported deaths are true that would be:
The Minister of Interior
The Minister of Defence
Deputy Minister of Defence (and Assad's brother in law)
The Head of the National Security Council

One would be major, all four is crazy.

Young Freud posted:

Also, if it was a bodyguard, then it means that there's infiltrators inside internal security. Even if it was a "lone wolf", it has to put Assad on edge to think his personal detail might walk up and pull a gun on him or blow up.

Agreed, Crazy barely begins to cover how bad it is. Mass assassination is bad enough, but on a scale of 1-10 being taken out by your own bodyguards is a sure way to ratchet the paranoia-o-meter to 40. All hell is going to break loose.

How the hell are you going to manage to maintain control when you can't trust your own security apparatus to keep you alive? Or stop defections? God willing, Bashar throws in the sponge because of the new aspect of immediate danger, but I'm kind of boggled as to where his regime goes from here.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

I thought they already had, but State TV has confirmed Assad's brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, is dead.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

quote:

Syria's state TV is reporting that Assed Shawkat, the brother-in-law of President Assad and a leading military figure, is dead.

I wonder how the Assad clan reacts to a relative's death.

also,

quote:

Meanwhile, Russia has just rejected a UN resolution on Syria, according to AFP news agency. It quotes Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as saying that a "decisive battle" is taking place in Syria, but that "adopting the resolution would mean outright support of a revolutionary movement".

Yes, Seryozha. That's why it's being proposed. :allears:

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Shadoer
Aug 31, 2011


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Rip Testes posted:

He has to, because this has to be a tremendous morale boost to the opposition and has to certainly prove their capability to any fence sitters in the Syrian public.

That's what I'm really wondering about. The opposition has just proven that it can hurt the regime, badly. I wonder how many people who thought the regime was invincible will now smell blood and join in open revolt.

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