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madkapitolist posted:Holy crap what is happening to znga today? Pre-earnings release high? Well, high is not necessarily a good word given the stock history. But I would imagine it's short covering before the earnings.. the 20dma has been the ceiling for ZNGA since like April. If the earnings are at least okay ZNGA could have some room to move, but ehh not for me. Now GRPN, as lovely as the thing is, I fully believe they're going to zero, but they're catching a bid so I'm fine with risking .10 on the chance that they'll get covered back close to 8. I also grabbed some aapl with tight stops and that so far seems to be doing well.. those too I'll be quick to flip.
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Jul 23, 2012 19:20
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Dolphin posted:I love Monday mornings like this. It's a firesale! Sorry to anyone with substantial long positions though. The best part about being a mostly long-term investor is that I don't plan to use the money any time soon, so days like these sting a little less. All the companies I invest in individually are high-dividend Dow stocks, and I'm still up on most of them, even today. McDonalds, though, christ that investment is beating me up.
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Jul 23, 2012 19:24
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Welp, I guess now's as good a time as any to get into MSFT.
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Jul 23, 2012 19:39
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Hummer Driving human being posted:If this is the case, what is the future of trading for the average Joe trader? Chasing after rumors and getting out after you make 5%? Isn't 5% a year what buy and hold investors are looking for? I don't get the complaint here. My advice on the 200 day was to get out, wait a few days, and then buy it if it bounces strongly from the 200 day or seems to be picking up momentum. This could mean you sell it low and buy it a bit higher, but momentum is the important thing, not cost basis. If you want to hold here, I'd put a stop around 8.35 for LUV. if you wanted to be too technical, you could use the 50 day or the 10 day, but at that point it verges on chart voodoo. There are plenty of good investments right now, I don't think there's a good reason to play in traffic. All of the airlines are getting demolished for structural reasons and it's not clear what would trigger a short squeeze. The stock has bottomed when there are no obvious bad-news catalysts and the stock price has stayed about the same or slightly gone up over 5-10 sessions. WMT and ABT are my two blue-chip rocks (I posted way this way back when WMT wa at 59 and ABT at 61) if you really want to buy and hold, but they'd both have to lose about 5% before there are good entry points. If you're hardcore long, you should always be holding some SPY puts to hedge and change them out to get a good cost basis: even if it's only 5% of your portfolio it can really protect your bankroll, and at worst it's a small expense if you manage it properly. Smerdyakov fucked around with this message at 21:23 on Jul 23, 2012 |
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Jul 23, 2012 21:08
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Smerdyakov posted:
Can you explain this a little more simply/fully? I'm basically a buy and hold guy - primarily index or sector etfs, but some individual dividend stocks. I'm almost always 100% long based on my timeline with some rare moving in and out if I think something is way over or under priced. I usually just use the 3%-5% drops to reinvest accumulated dividends or buy with newly added money (TDAmeritrade has a bunch of etfs you can buy without any fees which is nice for small buys). I am, however, interested in hearing about an actual hedge or better way to profit off these pretty regular drops. Also, since I'm posting, I might as well post a couple of things all at once. First, in response to the best investment question. I bought a good chunk (for me) of Altria (MO) in the spring of 2009 for roughly 16.50. It almost hit 36 last week and even after doubling it is still kicking off a 4.5% dividend. I actually posted in this thread around that time asking why people were not buying MO purely as a dividend play. Second, even FEZ (EURO STOXX 50 ETF) is kicking off a 5+% dividend. It seems like there have to be some good European high dividend stocks that have been beat down way too far. I'm looking for recommendations on euro companies that have a long history of dividend payments without decreases and are paying at least 4%. That German utility is pretty close, but I'm shooting for something that won't cut its dividend short of total European financial collapse or freak of nature nuclear meltdown. Doesn't even need to have any real growth potential as long as the dividend is safe. MayakovskyMarmite fucked around with this message at 02:01 on Jul 24, 2012 |
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Jul 24, 2012 01:58
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PRADA SLUT posted:Anyone considering shorting FB before the earnings report Thursday? If I actually could I would be all over this idea. If things go poorly I don't see much holding it above that 52 week low.
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Jul 24, 2012 03:12
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R.A. Dickey posted:If I actually could I would be all over this idea. If things go poorly I don't see much holding it above that 52 week low. Won't all the people covering their shorts drive the price up right until the announcement?
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Jul 24, 2012 03:23
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Hummer Driving human being posted:Won't all the people covering their shorts drive the price up right until the announcement? If you think the earnings will be bad why would you cover before the announcement?
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Jul 24, 2012 03:33
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Because they've already made their money and don't want to risk it? The short interest is like what, 15%? More? I'm not saying that FB is going to report stellar poo poo, but the stock didn't catch a bid until about 25, so perhaps the uncertainty is baked into a $25-$30 share price. Personally I wouldn't take a position either way.. if the stock was 35 I might consider shorting, or if it tanks below 25 I might go long (hence selling some puts), but I don't think I'd go for it either way right now The real question, of course, is AAPL. Is there any reason that the stock would start slowing down yet? Are competitors eating into profits yet? Any sign of growth slowing down at all yet? At the very least, the stock price hasn't moved that much since the last earnings, and the Scrooge pile of money has only grown bigger. Anyway this is all anecdotal and me talking out of my butt, but I don't feel like much has changed from one quarter to the next, except that Tim Cook is addressing the large pile of money finally. The stock hasn't run that much.. I think if anything the idea of "AAPL at 600" isn't such a stretch.
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Jul 24, 2012 03:48
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Turkeybone posted:Because they've already made their money and don't want to risk it? The short interest is like what, 15%? More? I'm not saying that FB is going to report stellar poo poo, but the stock didn't catch a bid until about 25, so perhaps the uncertainty is baked into a $25-$30 share price. Market cap is still $61bn, theres plenty of room to the downside if those ad numbers are worse than expected. At some point (and I don't know if we're there yet, we might be a quarter or two away) the still crazy multiples are going to catch up with this thing and I'm not sure if there is going to be much support there when it does.
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Jul 24, 2012 04:41
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Anyone else think GNTX looks oversold despite a disappointing earnings report? It's not even that disappointing. [edit]And then GNTX jumps 4% while I'm too much of a sissy to buy in. Dolphin fucked around with this message at 15:48 on Jul 24, 2012 |
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Jul 24, 2012 15:05
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http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/24/us-apple-samsung-damages-idINBRE86N0WE20120724 It is poo poo like this which makes me think Apple has little coming down the pipeline in regards to groundbreaking innovation. When you have to sue the poo poo out of people to fend off increasing competition it kind of makes you wonder what is going through management's heads in regards to the future.
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Jul 24, 2012 16:40
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Well, Steve Jobs's ideas stretch out so far and most of the executives are already incredibly rich. I think their beginning to muddle on and stagnate and I don't see any fresh ideas anymore, maybe iTV or something but I haven't heard too much about it and it might be another AppleTV flop.
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Jul 24, 2012 16:54
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Dolphin posted:Anyone else think GNTX looks oversold despite a disappointing earnings report? It's not even that disappointing. Beware of confirmation bias.
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Jul 24, 2012 17:31
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 CSCO
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Jul 24, 2012 18:00
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Saint Fu posted:
Double drat
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Jul 24, 2012 18:02
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bam thwok posted:Beware of confirmation bias.
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Jul 24, 2012 19:15
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Foma posted:Double drat Time to buy with the drop?
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Jul 24, 2012 19:29
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Sold some puts on K, TAP, UTX today -- if they get sold to me at that price they'll be yielding like 3.5% which is pretty high in this environment. If they expire I made 2% on my investment.
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Jul 24, 2012 20:09
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ZYNGA is awfully erratic right now. Went off the cliff this afternoon. Earnings release tomorrow is going to be interesting.
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Jul 24, 2012 20:20
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It looks like CSCO could just be beginning another leg down; it is very much a falling knife at this point. The whole apple thing, I dont buy the lawsuit to mean that they don't have anything new coming down the pipe. Just because you can't imagine it, doesn't mean that it's not there. I mean, maybe they don't, but I don't think the lawsuit is good justification to make such a jump. And 2.5B is a drop in the bucket, patent battles are part of the cost of doing business, and it won't matter if samsung makes lovely products anyway. Earnings always gets overhyped (whisper numbers on the whisper numbers) and sure one day they will miss, but I wouldn't place any bets because of this lawsuit or because "well everyone is already rich". That being said I did take profits on some calls and greatly reduced my exposure to aapl before earnings. Things are getting kind of choppy out there so I'm closing my more speculative stuff until there's some more direction. But AGNC, that'll stay on forever, it seems.
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Jul 24, 2012 20:40
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FB earnings are going to affect ZNGA, too -- I would imagine that ZNGA is going to mirror FBs earnings movement, whichever way it is.
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Jul 24, 2012 20:44
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Eww AAPL Those poor 226 hedge funds... 
COUNTIN THE BILLIES fucked around with this message at 21:39 on Jul 24, 2012 |
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Jul 24, 2012 21:33
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The one time I decide to actually hold a call through Apple earnings and this happens 
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Jul 24, 2012 21:37
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VMWare buying Nicira is a big deal, and I'm not sure if anyone really saw it coming. Virtualization is a big deal to a lot of companies, including Cisco, and partnerships with VMWare are the easiest/best way to get on the bandwagon. If Cisco continues to partner with/license VMWare, they'll be indirectly funding a company competing with their core business. Additionally, if Cisco comes up with an innovative solution using their hardware, it could likely be duplicated on the virtual networks owned entirely by VMWare.
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Jul 24, 2012 21:42
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Cheesemaster200 posted:http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/24/us-apple-samsung-damages-idINBRE86N0WE20120724 It's not like this is exactly out of character for them. They did the same thing about Windows, which only ended because Bill bailed the company out. That's my vague recollection of the events.
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Jul 24, 2012 21:47
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So uh... my portfolio is mostly AAPL and uh... 
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Jul 24, 2012 21:49
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Meh, the puts I sold were 550 and 500, so I *hope* those will be okay in the long run, but it was still a really hard loving battle to convince pops to close out everything else.
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Jul 24, 2012 21:52
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I just bought more stocks as my limit of 565 hit during after hours. These quarters are the best quarters for buying Apple stock. I bought at 480, 530, 570 and now 565.
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Jul 24, 2012 22:39
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If you read the patents Apple has a lot in the pipeline. The whole AppleTV thing is a story cooked up by the major networks to try and save their declining business model.
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Jul 24, 2012 22:39
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Mike_Hawk posted:ZYNGA is awfully erratic right now. Went off the cliff this afternoon. Earnings release tomorrow is going to be interesting. "Safe as houses."
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Jul 24, 2012 22:40
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I sat out today but it looks like I have some buys to consider early tomorrow morning.
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Jul 25, 2012 00:31
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Here is an Apple patent filing from today. http://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2012/07/apples-wild-new-patent-covers-tv-advanced-5d-technology.html
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Jul 25, 2012 02:13
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:Well, Steve Jobs's ideas stretch out so far and most of the executives are already incredibly rich. I think their beginning to muddle on and stagnate and I don't see any fresh ideas anymore, maybe iTV or something but I haven't heard too much about it and it might be another AppleTV flop. Apple TV was hardly a flop. Apple announced today that the installed base is now 6.8 million. That said, they sure stunk it up by missing consensus today.
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Jul 25, 2012 02:26
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Apple's "miss" is still more profit than any tech company has made in any quarter. Ever. Perspective.
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Jul 25, 2012 02:33
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The iPad numbers beat the Street which is the only good thing from this report. China's sales plummeted, surprisingly. And I can't think of any new products since Steve Jobs died. Siri, I guess? Innovation is over at AAPL. Not that I think it's going to $250.
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Jul 25, 2012 03:05
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Are there any recommended Canadian brokerages? I've looked around the Questrade site and their commissions seem hard to beat, $4.95 minimum/$9.95 maximum. Unless there is a disadvantage compared to going with one of the big banks it looks like it will save me about $20 a trade.
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Jul 25, 2012 04:14
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:The iPad numbers beat the Street which is the only good thing from this report. China's sales plummeted, surprisingly. No new products in less than a year???  The Retina MacBook Pro, while having fallen victim to first-generation bugs, is quite the product. I'm not saying that Apple stock is necessarily worth buying, but to claim they're slowing down is loving hilarious.
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Jul 25, 2012 04:20
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Not to mention that a 4 inch iPod touch, new iPhone, a smaller iPad... if they all pan out, are only going to add to the value. And the mystery TV thing 
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Jul 25, 2012 04:23
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Do any aussies have opinions on ASX stocks paying good, consistent dividends? I'm considering TLS, CFX or ASX but looking for others.
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Jul 25, 2012 04:32
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