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JawnV6
Jul 4, 2004

So hot ...

icantfindaname posted:

If the cpu market really is a natural monopoly then at the very least it should be more tightly controlled to prevent Intel from loving everyone over.

Are we pretending that ARM and the incredibly diverse ecosystem supporting it is nonexistent?

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icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


JawnV6 posted:

Are we pretending that ARM and the incredibly diverse ecosystem supporting it is nonexistent?

I posted:

x86 cpu market

Unless and until we're going to ditch x86 and move everything to ARM, Intel is in position to run the desktop, server and laptop markets at monopoly prices.

Now I don't actually think nationalization is a good idea, but decrying it as "bu bu but COMMUNISM!!!!" as you seem to be doing is not helpful. The best thing would be for the Justice Department to have kept Intel from loving over AMD in the first place, but it's too late for that. Antitrust action doesn't really work after the monopoly has gutted its competition.

JawnV6
Jul 4, 2004

So hot ...

icantfindaname posted:

Unless and until we're going to ditch x86 and move everything to ARM, Intel is in position to run the desktop, server and laptop markets at monopoly prices.
Ok, yeah, we're just closing our eyes and pretending ARM doesn't exist and wouldn't happily leap at the chance to take all those markets. Besides that... cell phones? Tablets? Never heard of them. Are they an important market?

It's like an AMD fanboy with 2007's script.

icantfindaname posted:

Now I don't actually think nationalization is a good idea, but decrying it as "bu bu but COMMUNISM!!!!" as you seem to be doing is not helpful.
Er... not really sure where I said that. Can you point it out?

My main argument against nationalization is the same question of "which nation?" that you raised given that the semiconductor industry isn't a purely American enterprise.

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


JawnV6 posted:

Ok, yeah, we're just closing our eyes and pretending ARM doesn't exist and wouldn't happily leap at the chance to take all those markets. Besides that... cell phones? Tablets? Never heard of them. Are they an important market?

That's not really a reason that Intel should be allowed to monopolize a large segment of the market, though. I'm not really sure what can be done at this point, I'm just saying that a feeling of "let's not do anything" is unhelpful.

quote:

It's like an AMD fanboy with 2007's script.

You can't really deny that Intel hosed AMD over. It's possible Intel would have won without cheating, but it wasn't guaranteed by any means.

quote:

My main argument against nationalization is the same question of "which nation?" that you raised given that the semiconductor industry isn't a purely American enterprise.

Considering Intel is an American corporation, then America? I mean, I don't think it's a good idea either, but that's not really a substantial issue. Nationalization also doesn't have to mean taking over an existing company either, they could just set up a government processor research agency or something.

In any case, I think we agree that Broadwell being BGA only is a lovely move by Intel, though.

icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 19:59 on Nov 29, 2012

WhyteRyce
Dec 30, 2001

icantfindaname posted:

Considering Intel is an American corporation, then America?

Intel is a huge multi-national company

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


WhyteRyce posted:

Intel is a huge multi-national company

So I guess that means it's above the law of any one country, because it has operations in lots of them? I understand the point, I'm just saying that it's not as big a problem as it's made out to be, besides the fact that it will never happen, I suppose.

And again, I don't think nationalizing Intel is a good idea. I think public funding for cpu research is an interesting idea, but I'm not knowledgeable enough to say for sure. I think I misunderstood your position against nationalizing Intel in the first place.

WhyteRyce
Dec 30, 2001

icantfindaname posted:

So I guess that means it's above the law of any one country, because it has operations in lots of them? I understand the point, I'm just saying that it's not as big a problem as it's made out to be, besides the fact that it will never happen, I suppose.

And again, I don't think nationalizing Intel is a good idea. I think public funding for cpu research is an interesting idea, but I'm not knowledgeable enough to say for sure. I think I misunderstood your position against nationalizing Intel in the first place.

I'm not talking about the law or any of that monopoly stuff people are throwing around, just that you're talking about nationalizing a company that has a good number of its people and resources in other countries.

JawnV6
Jul 4, 2004

So hot ...

icantfindaname posted:

Considering Intel is an American corporation, then America? I mean, I don't think it's a good idea either, but that's not really a substantial issue. Nationalization also doesn't have to mean taking over an existing company either, they could just set up a government processor research agency or something.
Right, there's just that sticky lil problem of what to do with the design centers, fabs, and non-American employees in Bangalore, Penang, Haifa.... oh, sorry, not a "substantial issue"

And why do we need an agency? Do you think the current DARPA funding of say, GAA research is inadequate? Can you even expand that acronym?

icantfindaname posted:

And again, I don't think nationalizing Intel is a good idea. I think public funding for cpu research is an interesting idea, but I'm not knowledgeable enough to say for sure. I think I misunderstood your position against nationalizing Intel in the first place.
I think you're ignorant of the public funding already going into "cpu research." Weren't we talking about transistors and fab tech anyway?

ohgodwhat
Aug 6, 2005

Is that public funding ~10 billion a year? Also, what's with all of the incredibly smug rhetorical questions?

canyoneer
Sep 13, 2005


I only have canyoneyes for you

Yaos posted:

Since we are making wild guesses based on little information I have to say Nvidia could be in the market to buy AMD. If it's true AMD will be in every new console it gives Nvidia a way back in. Nvidia is already fabless so AMD would be a good fit.

That's as good a guess as any, but I have doubts about whether NVIDIA could afford it.

redstormpopcorn
Jun 10, 2007
Aurora Master

Yaos posted:

Since we are making wild guesses based on little information I have to say Nvidia could be in the market to buy AMD. If it's true AMD will be in every new console it gives Nvidia a way back in. Nvidia is already fabless so AMD would be a good fit.

Things would probably get weird in the GPU market if they didn't spin ATi back out with the merger. Awesome as it would be to have the Radeon & GeForce engineers under the same roof, I think that'd either result in a performance-GPU Bad Monopoly or a terrifying war between the shambling AMDTiNvidia aberration and Intel.

Yaos
Feb 22, 2003

She is a cat of significant gravy.
In that case, instead of selling the company to a single business they sell the GPU part to Intel and the CPU part to Nvidia and balance is restored to the universe.

Yaos fucked around with this message at 23:48 on Nov 29, 2012

Bob Morales
Aug 18, 2006


Just wear the fucking mask, Bob

I don't care how many people I probably infected with COVID-19 while refusing to wear a mask, my comfort is far more important than the health and safety of everyone around me!

redstormpopcorn posted:

Things would probably get weird in the GPU market if they didn't spin ATi back out with the merger. Awesome as it would be to have the Radeon & GeForce engineers under the same roof, I think that'd either result in a performance-GPU Bad Monopoly or a terrifying war between the shambling AMDTiNvidia aberration and Intel.

Couldn't in theory a bunch of people leave and start some other chip company of some sort?

FISHMANPET
Mar 3, 2007

Sweet 'N Sour
Can't
Melt
Steel Beams
A bunch of plucky engineers move into a warehouse in Brooklyn and start hand crafting CPUs, calling them more authentic than Intel chips mass produced overseas.

Agreed
Dec 30, 2003

The price of meat has just gone up, and your old lady has just gone down

ohgodwhat posted:

Is that public funding ~10 billion a year? Also, what's with all of the incredibly smug rhetorical questions?

Pretty sure he works there and so while he can't talk to us about anything specific for obvious contractual reasons, he can still, using his knowledge that he can't share with anyone, pretty well poo poo on anyone else who lacks that members-only information for not having a clue about the specifics of what we're trying to discuss, I think, is the idea there.

Try not to be too hard on him, though. I understand the basic impulse at work. It's genuinely difficult to stand at the sidelines and watch an uninformed/outsider-perspective discussion of things that you know everything about, especially when there's a slightly hysterical edge to it; we are talking about a pretty big potential shift in the basic ecology of our niche in computing, though it'll be effectively transparent to the vast majority of consumers.

I've been in the same position in my line of work, which is waaaay less secretive and intense than cutting edge CPU design but nonetheless does involve (what seems to me, anyway) a great deal of outsider speculation as to what's going on behind the scenes. Personally, I have found that when you can't, legally or ethically, say anything to help people understand more, ridiculing them is not a good backup plan. Still, we're all adults here and a little bit of adversity in discussion isn't going to kill anybody. I'd love to be educated on the subject at hand more, but I am not sure he really can, at least in specifics, y'know?

JawnV6
Jul 4, 2004

So hot ...

Agreed posted:

Pretty sure he works there and so while he can't talk to us about anything specific for obvious contractual reasons, he can still, using his knowledge that he can't share with anyone, pretty well poo poo on anyone else who lacks that members-only information for not having a clue about the specifics of what we're trying to discuss, I think, is the idea there.
Alereon could absolutely school me on process tech. And given that I'm talking about DARPA funding, my magic secret information was mostly culled from here.

It's grating to see people talking about a component of the industry that's been around for decades as an "interesting idea." But in the future, I'll try to show more respect and deference to ignorance.

adorai
Nov 2, 2002

10/27/04 Never forget
Grimey Drawer

HalloKitty posted:

It's not the no-brainer you consider it to be: the closest I can get in AnandTech bench is FX-4300, which is similar to the Core i3-3220, costs exactly the same, but at least with the Intel you'd have a board which you could then toss the best available CPUs in later.
1) the deal for cyber monday on the 4170 included a $20 newegg gift card for free, which brought the cost to $100 and I could not get a motherboard for the i3 for less than an am3+ board. My intel fanboy coworker agreed with me, gonig for performance per dollar (ignoring the extra $10 a year in electricity) the fx-4170 was the deal of the day.

movax
Aug 30, 2008

Agreed posted:

Good mature post

JawnV6 posted:

Good mature post

I was going to make a comment earlier, but looks like you guys proved the point about quality SA posters. Let's just treat this thread as most people not knowing the innards of what we do daily (which I think is true), and comment on what we can without breaking NDA and being too terribly condescending. Posters here aren't dumb, just everyone doesn't live and breathe CPU tech/business 24/7.

That said, I do agree it's vital for their to be competition in the x86 market, just like any other market. Monopoly and economic issues aside, competition breeds innovation.

movax
Aug 30, 2008

So AMD had to cut chip-orders from GlobalFoundries, and even after paying the early cancellation fee to the tune of $320 million, they're still minimizing the loss.

Their initial deal was to buy $500 million worth, which has now become $115 million.

syzygy86
Feb 1, 2008

AMD had some interesting things to show at CES: http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/cpu/display/20130107232327_AMD_Reveals_Client_APUs_for_2013_Richland_Kabini_Temash_and_Kaveri.html

Unfortunately I couldn't find anything that specified launch dates for their roadmap, other than Richland is shipping to OEM's now. They also plan to launch Kaveri this year, which I think will be the first release of their Steamroller cores.

Goon Matchmaker
Oct 23, 2003

I play too much EVE-Online
AMD's slides always look like crap when compared with Intel's. You'd think they'd hire someone with better powerpoint design skills...

Alereon
Feb 6, 2004

Dehumanize yourself and face to Trumpshed
College Slice
Specs of the AMD "Richland" A-6000-series APUs have been released. These processors are in production and shipping to manufacturers now. Clockspeeds are up about 10% across the board at the same TDP, which goes a nice way towards closing the gap with Intel's low-end processors.

Star War Sex Parrot
Oct 2, 2003

More and more evidence that AMD won the Playstation 4 bid.

You Am I
May 20, 2001

Me @ your poasting


Looks like that's going to save AMD's arse if it is true, a bit like with Apple's investment into Sharp for LCD panels

forbidden dialectics
Jul 26, 2005





You Am I posted:

Looks like that's going to save AMD's arse if it is true, a bit like with Apple's investment into Sharp for LCD panels

I dunno, I remember reading from AMD's last earnings report that they made almost nothing from the WiiU chips. Those volume contracts have very, very little margin.

Alereon
Feb 6, 2004

Dehumanize yourself and face to Trumpshed
College Slice
I don't think they would have realized much revenue from the WiiU yet, right? The WiiU also contains cheap, low capability components and only a GPU, while it looks like the Xbox 720 and PS4 will have AMD CPUs and GPUs.

Palladium
May 8, 2012

Very Good
✔️✔️✔️✔️

JawnV6 posted:

Ok, yeah, we're just closing our eyes and pretending ARM doesn't exist and wouldn't happily leap at the chance to take all those markets. Besides that... cell phones? Tablets? Never heard of them. Are they an important market?

It's like an AMD fanboy with 2007's script.

I think the same "2500K at $200 is a ripoff" people forgot their beloved AMD once charged $350 for their cheapest X2 and still think that same chip was still worth $150 after a $180 OCed E6300 laid waste to the entire AMD lineup.

Tim Thomas
Feb 12, 2008
breakdancin the night away
A huge part of this is that no matter who AMD goes to to fan their chips, intel is a year and a half ahead of the process tech at the least. They're attempting to solve problems right now that the big thre foundries don't even know about yet, and while there are some novel ways to avoid those problems using some newer technologies that Intel is using, those have their own unknowns and issues as well. Intel's long game of "pay process engineers out the rear end" on the process side has given them a number of advantages that the other guys don't have. What they are doing at the 1272 node is ridiculous.

coffeetable
Feb 5, 2006

TELL ME AGAIN HOW GREAT BRITAIN WOULD BE IF IT WAS RULED BY THE MERCILESS JACKBOOT OF PRINCE CHARLES

YES I DO TALK TO PLANTS ACTUALLY

Tim Thomas posted:

What they are doing at the 1272 node is ridiculous.

Got any more info on this? I asked in the Intel thread a while back about articles on fab processes and got a lot of good stuff, but none of it mentioned what they had planned for 14nm.

When are AMD and the rest of the fab sector expected to reach 22nm anyway? This year or next?

Factory Factory
Mar 19, 2010

This is what
Arcane Velocity was like.

Tim Thomas posted:

A huge part of this is that no matter who AMD goes to to fan their chips, intel is a year and a half ahead of the process tech at the least. They're attempting to solve problems right now that the big thre foundries don't even know about yet, and while there are some novel ways to avoid those problems using some newer technologies that Intel is using, those have their own unknowns and issues as well. Intel's long game of "pay process engineers out the rear end" on the process side has given them a number of advantages that the other guys don't have. What they are doing at the 1272 node is ridiculous.

Except that Intel is opening up its excess fab capacity as a foundry. AMD designed, Intel-fabbed CPUs are a real possibility. Though I doubt Intel will have enough capacity to really let AMD do a significant portion of its volume.

canyoneer
Sep 13, 2005


I only have canyoneyes for you

Factory Factory posted:

Except that Intel is opening up its excess fab capacity as a foundry. AMD designed, Intel-fabbed CPUs are a real possibility. Though I doubt Intel will have enough capacity to really let AMD do a significant portion of its volume.

It's a possibility, but a very unlikely one. Intel's (possible) foundry business will more likely be silicon in markets they don't compete in or choose to exit. They'd have to be totally desperate for volume to give part of their competitive advantage to their nearest competitors in their core business (CPU and servers.)

I think you'd see TI, Cisco, Qualcomm, or Apple silicon in Intel foundries long before you'd see anything like AMD or Nvidia products.

Varkk
Apr 17, 2004

I think the only reason Intel would open their foundries up to AMD would be to keep the anti-monopoly watchdogs happy that there is sufficient competition in the CPU space. Should AMD go bankrupt and leave Intel as the only player in the x86 CPU market then they will obviously be facing some major scrutiny in their pricing etc. But while AMD is competing in that market the governments around the world a far more likely to leave it to the market to self-regulate.
Of course that leaves the danger than Intel could become essentially the only foundry manufacturing x86 type CPUs which would also lead to scrutiny.

Varkk fucked around with this message at 23:24 on Jan 30, 2013

Tim Thomas
Feb 12, 2008
breakdancin the night away
As far as I know, Intel hasn't released any EDA tools for any of their finfet processes, so I don't know how much help that will be to AMD.

Tim Thomas
Feb 12, 2008
breakdancin the night away

coffeetable posted:

Got any more info on this? I asked in the Intel thread a while back about articles on fab processes and got a lot of good stuff, but none of it mentioned what they had planned for 14nm.

When are AMD and the rest of the fab sector expected to reach 22nm anyway? This year or next?

Missed this earlier.

I can't say a whole lot more than what you can find online at the old 1270 tech roadmap on Intel's website: http://download.intel.com/newsroom/kits/22nm/pdfs/22nm-Details_Presentation.pdf

From the capital equipment side, going to 14nm from 22nm almost guarantees the following:

- Stupid amounts of patterning, even versus 22nm.
- Anisotropic processes need to be even more anisotropic and target specific.
- Increased focus on damage engineering, crystalline structures, and epitaxy.
- Uniformities still important.
- Metrology and damage repair tech becomes paramount.

To make a larger point: the process difference between 32nm planar and the 28nm half node is difficult and it's not like the usual foundry players haven't had their struggles in that realm. The process difference between 22nm 3D and 14nm 3D is monumental. To go from 28nm planar (which I believe Steamroller is) to 14nm 3D is almost a three node jump when taking all the differences in process into account. That they've been able to get as far as they have as quickly as they did is a testament to Intel: their process guys know what gently caress they are doing to an absolutely scary extent.

Malcolm XML
Aug 8, 2009

I always knew it would end like this.
Have they figured out EUV at all yet or is that still totally impractical?

Tim Thomas
Feb 12, 2008
breakdancin the night away
EUV still doesn't have the source life to make sense. This, along with the 450mm transition, is why Intel, Samsung, and TSMC have dumped billions of dollars into ASML.

Star War Sex Parrot
Oct 2, 2003

AMD is officially in the Playstation 4.

Factory Factory
Mar 19, 2010

This is what
Arcane Velocity was like.
Here's a randomly Googled link: HotHardware

Interestingly, despite having an octocore APU, it will have a dedicated secondary processor to handle background processes like downloads and social networking. There won't be backwards compatibility for physical games, but apparently you can stream older games from the cloud? Huh.

Don Lapre
Mar 28, 2001

If you're having problems you're either holding the phone wrong or you have tiny girl hands.
Emulating cell is hard. They own an onlive type company now

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Star War Sex Parrot
Oct 2, 2003

Yeah, as soon as it was leaked that PS4 was x86 a while back you knew there wasn't going to be BC; especially since Sony purchased Gaikai.

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