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Flowers For Algeria
Dec 3, 2005

I humbly offer my services as forum inquisitor. There is absolutely no way I would abuse this power in any way.


Quantum Mechanic posted:

US Carbon Emissions at Lowest Level since '94


Not trying to say everything's cool but a LITTLE good news is a good thing.

How much of that is due to offshoring practices? If whithin the same period imports from China have gone up, then this number is meaningless.

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This Jacket Is Me
Jan 29, 2009
A quick googling seems to indicate that there's a sizable group of scientists (I'll not use "consensus") that believe gas/magma ejections from the Siberian traps caused the Permian extinction, via global warming and ozone layer depletion. Also, the volcanism happened over a period of 200,000 - 800,000 years, so it's not a one-off fast event (like the Cretaceous extinction, which was the subject of probably the coolest paper I've ever found accidentally).

Quantum Mechanic
Apr 25, 2010

Just another fuckwit who thrives on fake moral outrage.
:derp:Waaaah the Christians are out to get me:derp:

lol abbottsgonnawin

Flowers For Algeria posted:

How much of that is due to offshoring practices? If whithin the same period imports from China have gone up, then this number is meaningless.

Unfortunately I think most of it is to do with the US recession.

Also, the new head of the CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) Solar Thermal Research Initiative has come out saying that Solar Thermal could be half the price by 2020.

quote:

Solar power cost could be halved by 2020

THE new head of Australia's solar thermal research effort says the cost of generating solar thermal electricity can be halved by 2020, placing it on course to match the renewable energy contribution from solar photovoltaic technologies.
Manuel Blanco, an international specialist in solar energy, started on Monday as director of the CSIRO-led Australian Solar Thermal Research Initiative (ASTRI). The initiative has $87 million in funding over eight years to advance so-called concentrating solar power technologies, which typically tap solar energy using mirrors or lenses to drive steam turbines.
Dr Blanco said a "technological leap" would be needed to cut generation costs from 25¢ a kilowatt-hour to 12¢ by 2020, but collaborative efforts between Australian and overseas scientists could achieve the goal. Costs had fallen by about 25 per cent over the past five years, he said.
Dr Blanco, whose previous posts include directing the solar thermal energy department of Spain's National Renewable Energy Centre, said Australia was an obvious place to focus research.

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

This Jacket Is Me posted:

A quick googling seems to indicate that there's a sizable group of scientists (I'll not use "consensus") that believe gas/magma ejections from the Siberian traps caused the Permian extinction, via global warming and ozone layer depletion. Also, the volcanism happened over a period of 200,000 - 800,000 years, so it's not a one-off fast event (like the Cretaceous extinction, which was the subject of probably the coolest paper I've ever found accidentally).

The thing is, the amount of CO2 it could have put out would have caused the temperature to go up about 4c, on its own. However what also seems to have occured around that era is that the permafrost melts, most likely from the 4c rise from the Siberian Traps. That then would be enough to bring it up to around 10c. Its the permafrost bit that has people worried, because that would likely have been a fairly rapid event, because if 4c over a very long period of time can do that, then god knows what slamming a 4c rise in the space of 100 years could do, but it probably aint fun. Further disturbing is we he have evidence that at least some of the permafrost is already melting.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn22549-arctic-permafrost-is-melting-faster-than-predicted.html

Thats a bad thing.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

duck monster posted:

Then why did he post this;-


He's asserting that a 10c rise in temperature wouldn't cause a mass extinction (and something else simultaneosly caused it maybe by coincidence).

So what I want to know is what mechanism does he propose stopped the 10c from causing a mass extinction, a mechanism that was ultimately apparently pointless because something else caused it (I dunno a solar flare or a comet or something?).

We're only, what maybe 1c into our global warming and theres already evidence we're starting to get extinction events. 10c would actually start causing mass die offs even of humans ( a supremely adaptable species ), particularly around the equator where temperatures could soar close to 60c, a temperature no vertebrate I'm aware of can survive.

Because sure maybe something else caused it. But if that thing wasn't there, all that stuff would have died anyway because of the 10c rise. UNLESS something managed to bend physics and science and prevent the die off.

Remember, he's arguing against the weight of science here. Its a big claim that requires big proof.

It'd be great to know what that is. It might save us if poo poo goes pear shaped here.

eh I just don't think it's fair to ask someone to disprove something like that. First you have to show why you think a 10c rise would cause an extinction. The answer is ocean hypoxia and a drier terrestrial climate but there is a lot up for debate regarding the causes of the extinction.

flatbus
Sep 19, 2012

Squalid posted:

eh I just don't think it's fair to ask someone to disprove something like that. First you have to show why you think a 10c rise would cause an extinction. The answer is ocean hypoxia and a drier terrestrial climate but there is a lot up for debate regarding the causes of the extinction.

For big, fully grown animals like us, sure. But if you're smaller, increases in temperature can cause sterilization, eggs not hatching or hatching the wrong way, and outright kill things lower down in the food chain. Many reptiles have temperature-dependent gender specification, for example, so a 10c increase is gonna cause way more female reptiles than males. I'm sure more knowledgeable goons will provide better examples than 'more girl alligators.'

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

So I'm doing a scientific research paper on permafrost for a class I'm taking on global environmental changes. Part of this paper is a background on different modeling studies and their predictions for CO2 emmissions from thawed permafrost.

As best I can tell the most comprehensive modeling studies in this are this:

quote:

Abstract
Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH4 emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO2 by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO2 fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH4/y to 41–70 Tg CH4/y, with increases due to CO2 fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH4 flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent.

this:

quote:

Abstract.
Thawing of permafrost and the associated release of carbon constitutes a positive feedback in the climate system, elevating the effect of anthropogenic GHG emissions on global-mean temperatures. Multiple factors have hindered the quantification of this feedback, which was not included in climate carbon-cycle models which participated in recent model intercomparisons (such as the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project – C4MIP) . There are considerable uncertainties in the rate and extent of permafrost thaw, the hydrological and vegetation response to permafrost thaw, the decomposition timescales of freshly thawed organic material, the proportion of soil carbon that might be emitted as carbon dioxide via aerobic decomposition or as methane via anaerobic decomposition, and in the magnitude of the high latitude amplification of global warming that will drive permafrost degradation. Additionally, there are extensive and poorly characterized regional heterogeneities in soil properties, carbon content, and hydrology. Here, we couple a new permafrost module to a reduced complexity carbon-cycle climate model, which allows us to perform a large ensemble of simulations. The ensemble is designed to span the uncertainties listed above and thereby the results provide an estimate of the potential strength of the feedback from newly thawed permafrost carbon. For the high CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5), 33–114 GtC(giga tons of Carbon) are released by 2100 (68 % uncertainty range). This leads to an additional warming of 0.04–0.23 ◦C. Though projected 21st century permafrost carbon emissions are relatively modest, ongoing permafrost thaw and slow but steady soil carbon decomposition means that, by 2300, about half of the potentially vulnerable permafrost carbon stock in the upper 3 m of soil layer (600–1000 GtC) could be released as CO2, with an extra 1–4 % being released as methane. Our results also suggest that mitigation action in line with the lower scenario RCP3-PD could contain Arctic temperature increase sufficiently that thawing of the permafrost area is limited to 9–23 % and the permafrost-carbon induced temperature increase does not exceed 0.04–0.16◦C by 2300.

and this:

quote:

ABSTRACT
The thaw and release of carbon currently frozen in permafrost will increase atmospheric CO2 concentrations and amplify surface warming to initiate a positive permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) on climate. We use surface weather from three global climate models based on the moderate warming, A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenario and the SiBCASA land surface model to estimate the strength and timing of the PCF and associated uncertainty. By 2200, we predict a 29–59% decrease in permafrost area and a 53–97 cm increase in active layer thickness. By 2200, the PCF strength in terms of cumulative permafrost carbon flux to the atmosphere is 190 ± 64 Gt C. This estimate may be low because it does not account for amplified surface warming due to the PCF itself and excludes some discontinuous permafrost regions where SiBCASA did not simulate permafrost. We predict that the PCF will change the arctic from a carbon sink to a source after the mid-2020s and is strong enough to cancel 42–88% of the total global land sink. The thaw and decay of permafrost carbon is irreversible and accounting for the PCF will require larger reductions in fossil fuel emissions to reach a target atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Being not a climate scientist, I'm having a hard time working my way through the jargon and figuring out what conclusions these modeling studies came to. with the exception of the latter one. I was wondering if anyone here with a bit more climate science expertise could enlighten me as to where these studies generally agree and disagree, what conclusions we can draw from them as a whole, etc.

edit: if this is the wrong place to ask, let me know

Red and Black fucked around with this message at 04:13 on Feb 7, 2013

WorldsStongestNerd
Apr 28, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
Has any researcher studied the amount of water currently locked in place within the worlds permafrost?
I'm curious if it would be enough to matter sea level wise.

OMFG PTSD LOL PBUH
Sep 9, 2001

Spudalicious posted:

Heres some actual good news I suppose. My dad's partner Klaus Lachner from Columbia University is ready to move to the next stage of their project with atmospheric CO2 capture.

http://earth.columbia.edu/videos/watch/459

A small bit of good news. My dad is Allen Wright, the awkwardish fellow who is handling the resins. If anyone has any questions for him I'm sure I could forward them along and get answers relatively quickly. Please be aware that he is a materials scientist primarily not a climatologist. He and Klaus have been at this for the past 10 years or so.

As they say in the video, it's insignificant in the face of climate change but a solid proof of concept.

I have a few questions I'm hoping you can get the answers for from your dad:

What is the effective level of carbon sequestration under ideal conditions per gram of material, or if it's being measure by surface area per meter of material.

What do the efficiency curves look like for changes in moisture content? What factor does temperature play with the material?

What is the cost per whatever given unit of the material? Is it likely to go down significantly given industrial scale production, or does it have high fixed material costs?

Could this material be used in a closed circuit carbon sequestration system using solar or wind power? Something along the lines of Solar / Wind power being used in conjunction with reusable desiccants to achieve ideal air conditions, forcing the air through the material to absorb C02, and releasing the C02 into an aqueous solution under pressure-- or something similar. Liquid C02 sequestration and then figure out how to sequester it in a more stable form type system. Could this material be used in this type of system at very, very, large scales?

And last but not least, is the above idea even remotely within the realm of possible given realistic advancements in material sciences? (Your dad being a material scientist I assume he'd have good insight here into whether or not this is just a dream)

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

JonDev posted:

So I'm doing a scientific research paper on permafrost for a class I'm taking on global environmental changes. Part of this paper is a background on different modeling studies and their predictions for CO2 emmissions from thawed permafrost.

As best I can tell the most comprehensive modeling studies in this are this:


this:


and this:


Being not a climate scientist, I'm having a hard time working my way through the jargon and figuring out what conclusions these modeling studies came to. with the exception of the latter one. I was wondering if anyone here with a bit more climate science expertise could enlighten me as to where these studies generally agree and disagree, what conclusions we can draw from them as a whole, etc.

edit: if this is the wrong place to ask, let me know

There's a lot in those studies, if you can point out exactly what's confusing I'm sure someone will explain it. The first created a more accurate model of permafrost soils that suggests larger carbon emissions than predicted by the IPCC. The second attempts to reduce uncertainties surrounding carbon flux in permafrost to better understand how current warming could release more carbon. It concludes that by 2100 33-114 Gigatonnes of carbon will be released if nobody tries to reduce emissions.

tl;dr we are so screwed

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Squalid posted:

eh I just don't think it's fair to ask someone to disprove something like that. First you have to show why you think a 10c rise would cause an extinction. The answer is ocean hypoxia and a drier terrestrial climate but there is a lot up for debate regarding the causes of the extinction.

Uh. What do you think would happen if large sections of the earth had 10c temperature rises? Even the degree therabouts we have now is having all sorts of crazy effects.

Many, maybe most species are incredibly specific about the environmental parameters they can exist in. Humans, rats, whatever maybe not so much, but even we'd be incapable of living anymore around the equator because we'd simply die in 55-65c temperatures without serious environmental support (aircons etc).

One of the things thats concerning me at the moment is what appears to be a shifting of humidity down southwards in western australia where I live. Thats tropical weather. We are now predictably getting nearly tropical summers, whereas before we where getting mediteratian summers. Thats 1c, and we're already seein weird poo poo happening environmentally. 1c. gently caress knows what 10c would mean, but my guess would be losing the south west forests and the entire green strip at the bottom of western australia to..... well something else, but probably desert.

Thats the thing. 10c is not a minor change. Its a fundamental rewrite of the environment. And your going to get a very extreme loss of species.

Just think of the numbers

A 20c max (comfortably spring) place becomes 30c max (hot)
A 30c max (hot) place becomes 40c max (Deeply uncomfortably hot)
A 40c max (really hot) becomes 50c max (Inferno and a lot of dudes dying)
A 50c max (Inferno) becomes 60c max (Game over).
And your loving dead meat if you happen to be in Dubai or Death Valley!

And to make it worse, since a 10c avg rise won't be consistant, we have no drat idea how that distributes (Well maybe some folks do, I'm not a climate scientist) so we would see some rises as MORE than 10 and some as less.

Add to that insanity weather as all that extra energy stirs up high/low pressure shitfights (tornados/cyclones), storms , rising seas, fires, flooding, and its just a total mess.

A 10c rise means total insanity and a complete rewrite of the biosphere.

As I said before. A 10c rise is entirely consistent with the sort of chaos associated with the permian extinction event. If we assume based on what we can tell from the data that we got that sort of rise then, to posit ANOTHER cause because for some reason 10c DIDNT do it , requires concocting some pretty novel physics and science. Its a big claim.

duck monster fucked around with this message at 22:02 on Feb 7, 2013

a lovely poster
Aug 5, 2011

by Pipski
For one the Ocean's thermal intertia makes it so that most of the temperature gain is going to be felt over land. So you can just go ahead and pencil in that in a 10c increase situation average land temperatures are going to raise more than 10c. Saying "well, what makes you so sure there will be an extinction crisis if we go up 10c" is just ignorant.

I'd be interested to know how hot the ocean has to get before we have to start worrying about Methane clathrates thawing. From what I understand this is what happened during the Permian (first 5c was from the Siberian traps, then the warming triggered the clathrates - another 5c of warming- which wiped out 95% of all life on Earth).

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Squalid posted:

eh I just don't think it's fair to ask someone to disprove something like that. First you have to show why you think a 10c rise would cause an extinction. The answer is ocean hypoxia and a drier terrestrial climate but there is a lot up for debate regarding the causes of the extinction.

I do accept theres debate about the causes, I was however replying to the comment that that temperature rise wouldn't necessarily cause such an extinction. Which is of course absurd. So I am arguing it on the premise that the temperature rise happened. Ie if it happened, we can safely say thats the cause, occams razor and all that. However I do accept that whilst the siberian traps part seems to be certain, the permafrost stuff is still up for debate.

Dreylad
Jun 19, 2001
There's really no reason we need to find out about any potential positive feedbacks that might be lurking beneath earth or water. We can be open to the possibility that there is a very small chance that climate change might not be as bad as some predict, just as those who don't think it wont be that bad should accept that there is a chance, however small, that it could be a lot worse.

It will cost us far less to do too much to deal with climate change and not need it, than it would be to not do enough and find out that it wasn't enough to stop the planet's heating. Simple as that.

Pohl
Jan 28, 2005




In the future, please post shit with the sole purpose of antagonizing the person running this site. Thank you.

Dreylad posted:

There's really no reason we need to find out about any potential positive feedbacks that might be lurking beneath earth or water. We can be open to the possibility that there is a very small chance that climate change might not be as bad as some predict, just as those who don't think it wont be that bad should accept that there is a chance, however small, that it could be a lot worse.

It will cost us far less to do too much to deal with climate change and not need it, than it would be to not do enough and find out that it wasn't enough to stop the planet's heating. Simple as that.

That is sort of like saying that we shouldn't pollute our air and water, because, who doesn't like clean air and water? It seems so drat obvious; which is of course why so many people are completely flabbergasted by not just the inaction, but the absolute war (is that too strong of a word?) against doing something proactive.

I'm pretty sure that the most recent studies show the majority of Americans accept global warming and that the changing climate worries them. Somehow though, the political fight has been absolutely lost. We need to stop arguing about the science, because we've already won the science battle, we need to start focusing upon the political battles.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

duck monster posted:

I do accept theres debate about the causes, I was however replying to the comment that that temperature rise wouldn't necessarily cause such an extinction. Which is of course absurd. So I am arguing it on the premise that the temperature rise happened. Ie if it happened, we can safely say thats the cause, occams razor and all that. However I do accept that whilst the siberian traps part seems to be certain, the permafrost stuff is still up for debate.

That's not absurd at all, at least for someone who isn't familiar with climate science or ecology. If we fast forward to the PETM which was 5-8 degrees warming I think? the extinction rate hardly blips above the background level. A few specific groups did suffer extinctions like benthic foraminifera but you also see increases in diversity among mammals, here both ungulates and primates first appear in paleontological record. It's hard to imagine just how loving hot it was 55 million years ago. The average temperature in Venezuela was 30C (90F)! In modern plants photosynthesis shuts down around 35-40C, and we have almost no idea what tropical ecosystems looked like under these conditions. Well, we do know there were 13 m 1 ton snakes that could eat a saltie for breakfast roaming around but there generally the record is really bad.

The point I was making before I distracted myself with giant snakes is that this stuff is complicated, and it isn't unreasonable for someone unfamiliar with the topic to be skeptical. Especially when those claims are about events that occurred 250 mya and being applied to political arguments. As long as you're reasonable genuinely interested and not Arkane you diserve an explanation.

really I was just annoyed you asked someone to prove a negative. bad form that.

Also I have sources for any facts included in this post, if someone is interested.

Zombie #246
Apr 26, 2003

Murr rgghhh ahhrghhh fffff
One thing that concerns me, and perhaps leaves me at a loss, is I've been following this thread for quite a while; I attempt to explain some of this to others, and provide references if able, but sometimes I'm met with outright hostile attitudes; while it is not important for me to be RIGHT and my friends/associates to be WRONG, I present tons of sources provided by people that have studied these things with what I can only assume to be impressive credentials.

I struggle with the emotions that this situation fills me with between brief (and much less occuring now) episodes of panic, and what is more common as a feeling of a sort of apathetic acceptance, with maybe a glimmer of optimism (however unlikely that optimism is).

Do you have the same reactions (Both with your own emotions, and the reactions of close friends/family that you discuss these things with)?

forgot my pants
Feb 28, 2005

duck monster posted:

And to make it worse, since a 10c avg rise won't be consistant, we have no drat idea how that distributes (Well maybe some folks do, I'm not a climate scientist) so we would see some rises as MORE than 10 and some as less.

I have seen predictions that if we hit runaway warming, by 2300 the Earth will warm up 12C and this will result in 40% of the landmass of Earth being uninhabitable by humans, with average temperatures of 60C (140F) or more. It's hard to predict something so far out, but the predictions we have for runaway warming are not good.

Quantum Mechanic posted:

US Carbon Emissions at Lowest Level since '94


Not trying to say everything's cool but a LITTLE good news is a good thing.

How much of this has to do with our increased use of natural gas? For the record, I think natural gas is useful in the short term (5-10 years) as we make the transition to technologies that emit zero CO2. But the problem with our increased use of natural gas is that companies are investing billions in the infrastructure and rights to frack for this stuff. They aren't making those investments for the short term.

Mazzagatti2Hotty
Jan 23, 2012

JON JONES APOLOGIST #3

Zombie #246 posted:

One thing that concerns me, and perhaps leaves me at a loss, is I've been following this thread for quite a while; I attempt to explain some of this to others, and provide references if able, but sometimes I'm met with outright hostile attitudes; while it is not important for me to be RIGHT and my friends/associates to be WRONG, I present tons of sources provided by people that have studied these things with what I can only assume to be impressive credentials.

I struggle with the emotions that this situation fills me with between brief (and much less occuring now) episodes of panic, and what is more common as a feeling of a sort of apathetic acceptance, with maybe a glimmer of optimism (however unlikely that optimism is).

Do you have the same reactions (Both with your own emotions, and the reactions of close friends/family that you discuss these things with)?

I have this issue with one of my friends in particular, who is pretty liberal and scientifically minded on other subjects. It's just that when it comes to climate change, he starts spouting off tired garbage like "volcanic eruptions will counteract warming before it gets too bad", "climate scientists need to be alarmist to get grants", or quoting some pithy George Carlin bit.

The only explanation I have for that kind of mindset is this: accepting the reality of our current scientific understanding necessitates society making hard choices that will drastically impact our current lifestyles. People are going to have to give up some of the creature comforts that come as part of the western white middle class way of living, because it's simply unsustainable. That kind of thing is so hard to accept that I imagine for some people it's easier to just assume that the threat is overblown, the science is not settled, some techno-magic will save us, etc.

Fleur Bleu
Nov 26, 2006

by Ralp

koolkal posted:

I wish there was more research done on the effects of various aerosols. With increased research, we could potentially discover an aerosol to reduce the amount of infrared radiation which reaches the earth while minimizing the effect on the visible spectrum. If this aerosol had a minimal biological effect and was relatively short-lived, we could potentially prevent some of the more drastic effects due to increased temperature. While this wouldn't solve the effects of heightened CO2, it's certainly something worth looking at.

http://harvardmagazine.com/2012/07/ozone-destruction
Not exactly what you're looking for, but it's about aerosols impacting solar radiation and I haven't seen it posted yet.
Apparently big storms pull up a lot more water vapour to the stratosphere then previously thought, where it facilitates the reactions that break down ozone.
And global warming brings more and bigger storms, thus contributing to ozone depletion and not just only above the poles.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost

Squalid posted:

That's not absurd at all, at least for someone who isn't familiar with climate science or ecology. If we fast forward to the PETM which was 5-8 degrees warming I think? the extinction rate hardly blips above the background level. A few specific groups did suffer extinctions like benthic foraminifera but you also see increases in diversity among mammals, here both ungulates and primates first appear in paleontological record. It's hard to imagine just how loving hot it was 55 million years ago. The average temperature in Venezuela was 30C (90F)! In modern plants photosynthesis shuts down around 35-40C, and we have almost no idea what tropical ecosystems looked like under these conditions. Well, we do know there were 13 m 1 ton snakes that could eat a saltie for breakfast roaming around but there generally the record is really bad.

The point I was making before I distracted myself with giant snakes is that this stuff is complicated, and it isn't unreasonable for someone unfamiliar with the topic to be skeptical. Especially when those claims are about events that occurred 250 mya and being applied to political arguments. As long as you're reasonable genuinely interested and not Arkane you diserve an explanation.

really I was just annoyed you asked someone to prove a negative. bad form that.

Also I have sources for any facts included in this post, if someone is interested.

I assume, to keep the extinction rate low, that in a couple hundred years our snakes will once again be 13m long. Awesome. (Kidding)

Quantum Mechanic
Apr 25, 2010

Just another fuckwit who thrives on fake moral outrage.
:derp:Waaaah the Christians are out to get me:derp:

lol abbottsgonnawin

forgot my pants posted:

How much of this has to do with our increased use of natural gas?

At least some of it, I think, but I'm pretty sure it's mostly lowered demand from the recession.

toy
Apr 19, 2001

Zombie #246 posted:

One thing that concerns me, and perhaps leaves me at a loss, is I've been following this thread for quite a while; I attempt to explain some of this to others, and provide references if able, but sometimes I'm met with outright hostile attitudes; while it is not important for me to be RIGHT and my friends/associates to be WRONG, I present tons of sources provided by people that have studied these things with what I can only assume to be impressive credentials.

I struggle with the emotions that this situation fills me with between brief (and much less occuring now) episodes of panic, and what is more common as a feeling of a sort of apathetic acceptance, with maybe a glimmer of optimism (however unlikely that optimism is).

Do you have the same reactions (Both with your own emotions, and the reactions of close friends/family that you discuss these things with)?

My impression is that people, generally, across class/race/sex/professions, don't want to talk about climate change. I've been shocked with how little it's talked about in my liberal (some would say radical) graduate program.

There's a book called Living in Denial which details the social construction and maintenance of the denial of the effects of global warming in a Norwegian town facing far shorter winters etc. It's not that they deny the science, they just don't want to talk about it.

toy fucked around with this message at 09:04 on Feb 9, 2013

Pimpmust
Oct 1, 2008

That and all the "The climate scientists have totally overestimated this "global warming" thing guys! Like, oceans are totally a CO2 sink"-kinda articles that the popular media likes to run every other week from "renowed climate scientists" that are either a bunch of hacks, or just misquoted scientists that have just presented their revised "best case" scenario or something.

The way the human brain works it's *very* easy to ignore this.

Ratios and Tendency
Apr 23, 2010

:swoon: MURALI :swoon:


Squalid posted:

That's not absurd at all, at least for someone who isn't familiar with climate science or ecology. If we fast forward to the PETM which was 5-8 degrees warming I think? the extinction rate hardly blips above the background level. A few specific groups did suffer extinctions like benthic foraminifera but you also see increases in diversity among mammals, here both ungulates and primates first appear in paleontological record. It's hard to imagine just how loving hot it was 55 million years ago. The average temperature in Venezuela was 30C (90F)! In modern plants photosynthesis shuts down around 35-40C, and we have almost no idea what tropical ecosystems looked like under these conditions. Well, we do know there were 13 m 1 ton snakes that could eat a saltie for breakfast roaming around but there generally the record is really bad.

The point I was making before I distracted myself with giant snakes is that this stuff is complicated, and it isn't unreasonable for someone unfamiliar with the topic to be skeptical. Especially when those claims are about events that occurred 250 mya and being applied to political arguments. As long as you're reasonable genuinely interested and not Arkane you diserve an explanation.

really I was just annoyed you asked someone to prove a negative. bad form that.

Also I have sources for any facts included in this post, if someone is interested.

It's important to note that the current biosphere is already highly stressed from a combination of the holocene extinction and then the massive loss of habitat post industrial revolution. Lining up multiple stressors is how you get the big extinction events.

koolkal
Oct 21, 2008

this thread maybe doesnt have room for 2 green xbox one avs

Fleur Bleu posted:

http://harvardmagazine.com/2012/07/ozone-destruction
Not exactly what you're looking for, but it's about aerosols impacting solar radiation and I haven't seen it posted yet.
Apparently big storms pull up a lot more water vapour to the stratosphere then previously thought, where it facilitates the reactions that break down ozone.
And global warming brings more and bigger storms, thus contributing to ozone depletion and not just only above the poles.

https://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/511016/a-cheap-and-easy-plan-to-stop-global-warming/

This article better summarizes my view on the matter. It's a terrible but potentially effective solution for a short term fix.

duck monster
Dec 15, 2004

Of course Ozone breakdown isn't exactly ideal either. It might facilitate evolution but it also facilitates fecking cancer!

Broken Machine
Oct 22, 2010

JonDev posted:

Permafrost

I don't know if this is what you're looking for, but I posted a bit earlier about the CO2 / Methane stored in permafrost and linked an article earlier if you filter my posts.

Spudalicious
Dec 24, 2003

I <3 Alton Brown.
I PM'd you back, but here are the answers. Pretty interesting. I was surprised to see him so optimistic, usually he's a bit of a downer.


GAS CURES KIKES posted:

I have a few questions I'm hoping you can get the answers for from your dad:

What is the effective level of carbon sequestration under ideal conditions per gram of material, or if it's being measure by surface area per meter of material.

We use a manufactured membrane material made by "Snowpure" located in
California. It is a heterogeneous membrane composed of a
polypropylene structural component in which is evenly distributed
micro granules of an anionic exchange resin which is the active
component. See https://www.snowpure.com and search for Excellion I-200 Anion
Membrane, currently selling for $3.60 ft^2. Using this material, we
can swing roughly 1% of the mass of the membrane used in CO2. IOW, we
can swing roughly 10g of CO2 for each kg of membrane in service. Each
swing takes approx 1 hr to load in ambient air and another hr to
unload. CO2 is 44g/mole and at sea level a mole of ideal gas is
roughly 25 litres of gas as STP. Another way to think about it is as
a capture flux. This material works at approx 5e-5 moles of
CO2/m^2/sec, depending on the environmental conditions.

What do the efficiency curves look like for changes in moisture content? What factor does temperature play with the material?

I refer you to a paper titled "Moisture Swing Sorbent for Carbon
Dioxide Capture from Ambient Air". Tao Wang, Allen Wright, Klaus
Lackner authors. Environmental Science & Technology, 2011, 45,
6670-6675. It seems to follow a Langmuir distribution.
Temperature curves are currently being developed.

What is the cost per whatever given unit of the material? Is it likely to go down significantly given industrial scale production, or does it have high fixed material costs?
See reference to Snowpure above. There is nothing special about that
material and because it is used as a membrane, it is a specialty item
that carries a high price penalty. Anionic exchange resins in bulk
can be purchased for approx $5/kg overseas.

Could this material be used in a closed circuit carbon sequestration system using solar or wind power? Something along the lines of Solar / Wind power being used in conjunction with reusable desiccants to achieve ideal air conditions, forcing the air through the material to absorb C02, and releasing the C02 into an aqueous solution under pressure-- or something similar. Liquid C02 sequestration and then figure out how to sequester it in a more stable form type system. Could this material be used in this type of system at very, very, large scales?

Sure, the systems we envision use ambient wind to move air through a
"filter" of this, or a similar material and then the material must be
moved into a closed chamber for the "off gas" portion of the cycle. A
device the size of a tractor trailer, or a 40 ft shipping container
would yield 1 ton of CO2 per day.

And last but not least, is the above idea even remotely within the realm of possible given realistic advancements in material sciences? (Your dad being a material scientist I assume he'd have good insight here into whether or not this is just a dream)

I think so. What is lacking now is the political will to support
development of the technology. Keep in mind that CO2 is essentially
garbage with little to no value in the volumes we are talking about
which would impact climate change. CO2 does have commercial value in
small quantities for niche markets and would be a valid way to
bootstrap the technology development.


Could this be the thing that saves us all? I don't know. My dad typically advocates for increased energy usage in order to spur technological development, I'm somewhat more divided in how I believe it would be best to combat climate change.

toy
Apr 19, 2001
More evidence that we're heading for ice-free Arctic summers sooner rather than later. Really terrifying stuff.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/14/1594211/death-spiral-bombshell-cryosat-2-confirms-arctic-sea-ice-volume-has-collapsed/

I don't even know how to talk about climate change anymore. It seems downplaying the severity of the situation is necessary for people to not shut down entirely and/or think you're nuts, but it's also what allows news like this to pass quietly and be buried under the wave of overly-positive thinking.

Paper Mac
Mar 2, 2007

lives in a paper shack

toy posted:

More evidence that we're heading for ice-free Arctic summers sooner rather than later. Really terrifying stuff.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/14/1594211/death-spiral-bombshell-cryosat-2-confirms-arctic-sea-ice-volume-has-collapsed/

I don't even know how to talk about climate change anymore. It seems downplaying the severity of the situation is necessary for people to not shut down entirely and/or think you're nuts, but it's also what allows news like this to pass quietly and be buried under the wave of overly-positive thinking.

So many things are happening at once that people can't concentrate. The crisis of capitalism, the ecological crisis, global societal crises of class, religion, ethnicity, modernity and postmodernity. The problem is so big, and the institutional structures that must be mobilised in order to deal with climate change are generally not ones ordinary people have access to in the first place. I think that's the appeal of relocalisation efforts, in the sense that you're asking people to do things on a tangible scale.

Orions Lord
May 21, 2012

Zombie #246 posted:

One thing that concerns me, and perhaps leaves me at a loss, is I've been following this thread for quite a while; I attempt to explain some of this to others, and provide references if able, but sometimes I'm met with outright hostile attitudes; while it is not important for me to be RIGHT and my friends/associates to be WRONG, I present tons of sources provided by people that have studied these things with what I can only assume to be impressive credentials.

I struggle with the emotions that this situation fills me with between brief (and much less occuring now) episodes of panic, and what is more common as a feeling of a sort of apathetic acceptance, with maybe a glimmer of optimism (however unlikely that optimism is).

Do you have the same reactions (Both with your own emotions, and the reactions of close friends/family that you discuss these things with)?

My job consists working at chemical plant for about 80% or so. At this moment I am stationed at an Oil Company.

We discuss really a lot but I don’t recall global environment being a subject.

Killmaster
Jun 18, 2002
So there was a pretty big (~35-50k) rally in DC yesterday against Keystone XL:

http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-928863?hpt=us_bn3

Sorry for the lack of a better source. Does anyone have any thoughts in this regard? I haven't seen much discussion about what people are doing in terms of movements but this seems to be one of the more promising ones.

Also any insight on what Obama might do with Keystone XL?

Ihmemies
Oct 6, 2012

Here's a pretty long-winded article about Cognitive and Behavioral Challenges in Responding to Climate Change which might explain some of the reactions people have when it comes to climate change:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1407958

quote:

Abstract:
Climate scientists have identified global warming as the most important environmental issue of our time, but it has taken over 20 years for the problem to penetrate the public discourse in even the most superficial manner. While some nations have done better than others, no nation has adequately reduced emissions and no nation has a base of public citizens that are sufficiently socially and politically engaged in response to climate change. This paper summarizes international and national differences in levels of knowledge and concern regarding climate change, and the existing explanations for the worldwide failure of public response to climate change, drawing from psychology, social psychology and sociology. On the whole, the widely presumed links between public access to information on climate change and levels of concern and action are not supported. The paper's key findings emphasize the presence of negative emotions in conjunction with global warming (fear, guilt, and helplessness), and the process of emotion management and cultural norms in the construction of a social reality in which climate change is held at arms length. Barriers in responding to climate change are placed into three broad categories: 1) psychological/conceptual, 2) social and cultural, and 3) structural (political economy). The author provides policy considerations and summarizes the policy implications of both psychological and conceptual barriers, and social and cultural barriers. An annotated bibliography is included.

rivetz
Sep 22, 2000


Soiled Meat
My (entirely anecdotal) ray of sunshine on this topic: in my opinion it's definitely getting easier to "win" those random message board debates on this topic. I know, I know, arguing on the internet, Special Olympics, ho ho ha ha, but seriously. I'm not a scientist and have no credentials or credibility beyond just having read a lot of poo poo on the topic of AGW, but there have been multiple occasions in the last month or so where I've waded right into some bitchfest on Daily Caller or some conservative blog and been able to expose folks as full of poo poo pretty easily. This isn't because I'm a brilliant debater, but because the volume and saturation of credible, well-reasoned refutations of every denialist talking point are easy to find and use to form a good response. (Skeptical Science, Reality Drop, etc.)

In other words, it feels like we've reached a point where we have enough evidence from so many sources that it's much more straightforward to go into an argument with someone who claims to know what they're talking about and put invalid arguments to bed pretty decisively. It gives me hope that the tide is slowly beginning to turn on this issue and that we might be getting closer to Joe Public taking this poo poo a little more seriously.

FAUXTON
Jun 2, 2005

spero che tu stia bene

rivetz posted:

My (entirely anecdotal) ray of sunshine on this topic: in my opinion it's definitely getting easier to "win" those random message board debates on this topic. I know, I know, arguing on the internet, Special Olympics, ho ho ha ha, but seriously. I'm not a scientist and have no credentials or credibility beyond just having read a lot of poo poo on the topic of AGW, but there have been multiple occasions in the last month or so where I've waded right into some bitchfest on Daily Caller or some conservative blog and been able to expose folks as full of poo poo pretty easily. This isn't because I'm a brilliant debater, but because the volume and saturation of credible, well-reasoned refutations of every denialist talking point are easy to find and use to form a good response. (Skeptical Science, Reality Drop, etc.)

In other words, it feels like we've reached a point where we have enough evidence from so many sources that it's much more straightforward to go into an argument with someone who claims to know what they're talking about and put invalid arguments to bed pretty decisively. It gives me hope that the tide is slowly beginning to turn on this issue and that we might be getting closer to Joe Public taking this poo poo a little more seriously.

These are special horses that will loving drown before even acknowledging they're wet.

Balnakio
Jun 27, 2008

rivetz posted:

My (entirely anecdotal) ray of sunshine on this topic: in my opinion it's definitely getting easier to "win" those random message board debates on this topic. I know, I know, arguing on the internet, Special Olympics, ho ho ha ha, but seriously. I'm not a scientist and have no credentials or credibility beyond just having read a lot of poo poo on the topic of AGW, but there have been multiple occasions in the last month or so where I've waded right into some bitchfest on Daily Caller or some conservative blog and been able to expose folks as full of poo poo pretty easily. This isn't because I'm a brilliant debater, but because the volume and saturation of credible, well-reasoned refutations of every denialist talking point are easy to find and use to form a good response. (Skeptical Science, Reality Drop, etc.)

In other words, it feels like we've reached a point where we have enough evidence from so many sources that it's much more straightforward to go into an argument with someone who claims to know what they're talking about and put invalid arguments to bed pretty decisively. It gives me hope that the tide is slowly beginning to turn on this issue and that we might be getting closer to Joe Public taking this poo poo a little more seriously.

I know it's in your post but I can't stress enough how good of a resource Skeptical Science is. If anyone hasn't seen it before just spend 5 minutes to have a look. http://www.skepticalscience.com/

It even has an Iphone app.

theblackw0lf
Apr 15, 2003

"...creating a vision of the sort of society you want to have in miniature"
Michael Grunwald, author of The New New Deal, and an Obama supporter who has been loudly proclaiming that climate activists do not appreciate all the accomplishments the President has done in fighting climate change, comes out against Keystone XL. It's well worth reading.

http://swampland.time.com/2013/02/28/im-with-the-tree-huggers/

quote:

The respectable center has recognized that climate change is not only real and man-made but also a genuine emergency. The scientific evidence has become too stark to indulge denial or dithering. The earth is hotter; Arctic ice is melting at a terrifying rate; staid institutions like reinsurers and the CIA are sounding dire warnings about rising seas and extreme droughts. There’s an emerging consensus that fossil fuel apologists are on the wrong side of the battle of the century.

But there’s also an emerging consensus-among newspaper editorial boards, respectable-centrist pundits, even the magazine Nature- that the rabble-rousing activists who have tied themselves to the White House gate and clamored for President Obama to reject the Keystone XL pipeline are picking the wrong fight. Stopping Keystone, these critics point out, wouldn’t prevent catastrophic warming. It might not even prevent the extraction from Canada’s dirty tar sands. It wouldn’t cut emissions as much as new coal regulations or clean-energy subsidies or carbon pricing. Meanwhile, approving the pipeline would create jobs and reduce our dependence on petro-dictators while signaling that Obama isn’t as radical as the tree huggers protesting outside his house.

Well, I’m with the tree huggers. The pipeline isn’t the worst threat to the climate, but it’s a threat. Keystone isn’t the best fight to have over fossil fuels, but it’s the fight we’re having. Now is the time to choose sides. It’s always easy to quibble with the politics of radical protest: Did ACT UP need to be so obnoxious? Didn’t the tax evasion optics of the Boston Tea Party muddle the anti-imperial message? But if we’re in a war to stop global warming — a war TIME declared on a green-bordered cover five years ago — then we need to fight it on the beaches, the landing zones and the carbon-spewing tar sands of Alberta. If we’re serious about reducing atmospheric carbon below 350 parts per million, we need to start leaving some carbon in the ground.

Yes, Keystone would create temporary construction jobs, but so would any other construction project. We’re already less reliant on Middle Eastern oil than we’ve been in decades. And there is zero chance that approving the pipeline would, as Nature suggested, help Obama “bolster his credibility” with industry groups and Republicans; they would celebrate their victory and continue their twilight struggle.

It’s true that imposing tough new carbon restrictions for power plants would do far more to control greenhouse gases than rejecting the pipeline, but there’s no reason Obama can’t do both. It’s also true that a tax or other government price on carbon could do even more to keep fossil fuels underground, but Congress simply won’t go there. Rejecting Keystone would at least put a logistical price on carbon from the tar sands, forcing industry to find costlier routes to market—while giving activists a chance to block those too.

What we really need is a political price on carbon, a policy presumption that cleaner is better. Fossil fuel interests understandably reject that notion. But so do respectable pundits, because they’re desperate to differentiate themselves from the unkempt riffraff who never shut up about the broiling of the planet. Respectable pundits see themselves as rational analysts, not emotional activists. They recognize the emergency but feel uncomfortable about the sirens. They endorse the war, but like armchair McClellans, they are always finding excuses for why we shouldn’t fight.

I’m an analyst too. I’m reasonably kempt. I’ve mocked the activists who whine about Obama’s “climate silence” while ignoring his climate actions— like unprecedented efficiency mandates that have slashed demand for dirty energy and unprecedented green investments that have launched a clean-energy revolution. But when it comes to Keystone, my analysis is that the activists are right. Fossil fuels are broiling the planet. The pipeline would turn up the heat. If Obama approves it, he’ll deserve all the abuse the activists hurl his way. There are many climate problems a President can’t solve, but Keystone isn’t one of them. It’s a choice between Big Oil and a more sustainable planet. The right answer isn’t always somewhere in the middle.

At his second Inaugural, after his memorable line about Selma and Stonewall, Obama finally broke his climate silence. He vowed to fight to slash emissions, “knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations.” Keystone isn’t a perfect battlefield, but neither was Selma or Stonewall. In a war, you don’t always get to choose where to fight. You still have to show you’re willing to fight.

FairyNuff
Jan 22, 2012

Something from the Newscientist about having proof that climate change has lead to humanitarian disaster:

quote:

For the first time, we have proof that climate change has led to a humanitarian disaster. The East African drought of 2011, which resulted in a famine that killed at least 50,000 people, was partly caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases.

The drought was brought about by the failure of two consecutive rainy seasons: the "short rains" in late 2010 and the "long rains" at the start of 2011. Climatologist Peter Stott of the Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter, UK, and his colleagues ran climate models, with and without a human influence on climate, and compared the likelihood of the rains failing.

Humanity's activities had no effect on the short rains – they failed because of a strong La Niña in the Pacific. "That's natural," says Stott.

But climate change did affect the long rains, making them more likely to fail (Geophysical Research Letters, doi.org/kmv). The model could only reproduce the scale of the drought if it included greenhouse gas emissions.

Ocean influence

Natural mechanisms probably also played a role in the rain failure. Sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean vary, and this seems to affect rain patterns over sub-Saharan Africa. The problem is that the natural mechanism – and the extent of its control over the rains – is poorly understood.

The team calculate that climate change is responsible for between 24 per cent and 99 per cent of the risk of long rains failure.

"No food crisis can ever be attributed to a single causal factor," says Tracy Carty of Oxfam in Oxford, UK. "However, drought is always a trigger and this is the first occasion that a portion of the blame has been attributed to climate change."

"Climate change is not a distant future threat, but already a driver behind rising humanitarian needs," she adds.

Although Stott's findings add to the evidence that East Africa will face more droughts as the climate warms, for now, the region is slowly recovering from 2011. The short rains at the end of 2012 were good, and the latest forecasts suggest that the long rains will be roughly normal, or at least not far below that.

In the long run, studies that attribute blame in this way could be used by people attempting to sue for damages relating to climate change. A number of such cases are currently moving through US courts, spearheaded by the Alaskan village of Kivalina. The village is threatened by increased storm surges that may be linked to climate change, and its residents are suing major energy companies for the cost of evacuating.

Pin the tail on the donkey

Such cases still face significant challenges, says environmental lawyer Tracy Hester of the University of Houston in Texas. Anyone trying to bring one to court will have to link the damages they have suffered to a particular source of emissions.

"While this research points to man's activities as a contributing factor for the 2011 East African drought, it doesn't identify any particular person, company or country," he says.

In the long run, countries that suffer loss and damage from climate change may be able to claim compensation or aid from others, thanks to an agreement made at the Doha climate summit in December. But such claims are a long way away, says Hester. The negotiations have yet to establish a means to force emitters to pay for climate damages.

"Other nations are exploring whether they can bring a case before the International Court of Justice to seek relief against certain climate damages," says Hester. For instance, low-lying South Pacific nations could be swamped by rising seas. "This research could be helpful in that context."

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Davethulhu
Aug 12, 2003

Morbid Hound
So I've been seeing this image bandied around:



Source

I'm not really knowledgeable enough to rebut, any insights from anyone else?

  • Locked thread