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Majestic posted:Well that's certainly a thing. I guess I don't know who this Christian Heinze character is but it doesn't do wonders for my confidence in his analysis. I think he's too high on Jindal and too low on Pence and Santorum. I just don't like Jindal. I don't think the GOP primary voters will immediately settle for less and here is room for someone with a more conservative record than Rubio. They shouldn't win, but they'll have their moment in the sun and it's not impossible. e: I also think he's wrong about Christie moving left in the future. I think the state legislature will keep sending him bills his has to veto to win a Presidential primary. UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 09:01 on Feb 18, 2013 |
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Feb 18, 2013 08:57
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Majestic posted:Well that's certainly a thing. I guess I don't know who this Christian Heinze character is but it doesn't do wonders for my confidence in his analysis. It's a silly just-for-fun ranking from one of the writers for The Hill, with obviously subjective criteria, but you have to pull out the sentence about whether Obama is a liberal. 
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Feb 18, 2013 13:43
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And the angels (or at least D&D goons) wept...quote:But does that mean Gingrich has completely ruled out another political run? When ABC News’ Jonathan Karl asked whether Gingrich was open to another run for office, he first responded firmly, “Yeah, I don’t think I’ll run for office, no.”
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Feb 18, 2013 13:55
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There's still the hope that Herman Cain might run again.
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Feb 18, 2013 13:57
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"Plausible analyses" are probably not the best way of learning about what's up and down in politics anyway. Thankfully, poli sci's are getting popular, so we'll have a decent amount of fact- and number-based analysis instead of the usual punditry.A human heart posted:There's still the hope that Herman Cain might run again.
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Feb 18, 2013 13:59
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I don't know enough about Susana Martinez to assess if she's too high or not (although maybe that should tell you something). Besides that though they seem pretty close to right at this point. I think Walker could make a go of things, so I'd probably bump Jindal and Bush for him. Also on Bush, if anything I think he's underselling how much of a nightmare scenario either a Clinton/Bush or a Gillibrand/Bush matchup would be so he's too high as well.
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Feb 18, 2013 16:07
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ufarn posted:Unlikely. He works for Fox News now. Didn't stop Gingrich.
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Feb 18, 2013 17:32
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Marco Rubio's PAC has sold more than 3100 water bottles.
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Feb 18, 2013 17:40
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R.A. Dickey posted:I don't know enough about Susana Martinez to assess if she's too high or not (although maybe that should tell you something). Besides that though they seem pretty close to right at this point. I think Walker could make a go of things, so I'd probably bump Jindal and Bush for him. Also on Bush, if anything I think he's underselling how much of a nightmare scenario either a Clinton/Bush or a Gillibrand/Bush matchup would be so he's too high as well. Susana Martinez is the primary caretaker for her severely developmentally disabled sister; she's very to extremely unlikely to even run, Republican affirmative action wish fulfillment aside.
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Feb 18, 2013 17:44
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Joementum posted:Marco Rubio's PAC has sold more than 3100 water bottles. They weren't purchased directly.
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Feb 18, 2013 17:49
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Joementum posted:It's a silly just-for-fun ranking from one of the writers for The Hill, with obviously subjective criteria, but you have to pull out the sentence about whether Obama is a liberal. As much the idea that the activist base sees Obama as a liberal, was the point. Maybe there are plenty of people who get out and knock on doors who still feel that way. I'd only read the Democrat one at that point, the Republican one seems much more tongue in cheek. It would be nice if he'd actually done the scoring thing honestly and seen which way the rankings come out, but giving Rubio 6/10 on gaining female support when he had in the previous line admitted he was losing women by 11 points in his previous races, but theoretically they should like him, is clearly just post-hoc assigning scores to get the rankings he wants.
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Feb 18, 2013 23:08
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Majestic posted:As much the idea that the activist base sees Obama as a liberal, was the point. Maybe there are plenty of people who get out and knock on doors who still feel that way. He didn't say the base sees Obama as a liberal. He said Obama has become increasingly liberal, and that the base isn't going to be so quick to jump into a moderate. His views "evolved" on gay marriage, and he's certainly taken a tougher tone about regulating the financial sector. While he may be to the right of you, the point is that people further left of Obama are going to have a better chance at exposure because people aren't going to be so concerned with losing the election. The base is going to want to keep moving forward. As for your second point, everything is speculation at this point. State-wide precedents don't mean anything nationally. He made a decent argument.
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Feb 18, 2013 23:37
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A human heart posted:There's still the hope that Herman Cain might run again. Did he ever actually officially end his campaign? Maybe he's still running for President right now 
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Feb 19, 2013 00:25
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Vivek posted:Any thoughts on Ben Carson? He's basically exactly what the GOP is looking for right now; he's a black man who grew up poor, yet rebuked Obama's policies to his face on a public stage, and he has major intellectual credibility but is still religious to the point of not believing in evolution. Apparently a lot of people have asked him to run for president and he's said, “If the Lord grabbed me by the collar and made me do it, I would." Which is kind of Sarah Palin-y, but also sounds like someone seriously considering it. Obviously he has no political experience so he could burn out like Herman Cain, but right now I think he has goodwill to spare. Hell, I first heard of him in The Wire, where he was mentioned as one of the few positive role models in Baltimore for inner city kids. I don't know how a physician with his level of education can not believe in evolution.
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Feb 19, 2013 04:15
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Ben Carson is basically Herman Cain 2.0. Remember, Herman Cain is not actually a stupid guy. He holds an advanced degree in mathematics, worked on missile targeting systems, was on the board of a Fed bank, successfully led a company and became head of a major lobbying organization. But he is also extremely incurious about subjects that Presidents are expected to know (Libya... hmmmmmmmmmm) and has some really nutty ideas. Ben Carson has exactly the same appeal as Cain to the Republican party: he's black and has business and academic credentials. He's also nuts.
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Feb 19, 2013 04:20
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Joementum posted:Ben Carson is basically Herman Cain 2.0. Not to be out done, but I hope Bobby Jindal throws himself into the ring. He said this "Over the past five years, we have made incredible progress in growing our economy by overhauling ethics laws, revamping workforce development programs, eliminating burdensome business taxes and giving every child the opportunity to get a great education. But there is more work to be done. Indeed, for too long, Louisiana families and businesses have been burdened by a tax code that is too complex and stifles job growth. We must change that. That’s why this week I announced that my goal is to eliminate all personal income tax and all corporate income tax in a revenue neutral way, and keep the sales tax as low and flat as possible." Plus, he isn't white and probably not a muslim.
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Feb 19, 2013 04:33
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orangesampson posted:Not to be out done, but I hope Bobby Jindal throws himself into the ring. Indeed, he is so not-muslim that he once personally exorcised a demon from a possessed woman. A Bobby Jindal presidential candidacy is the kind of gift America can only give itself once in a lifetime.
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Feb 19, 2013 05:02
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Well this surely wont be used against Chris Christie in a GOP primary:quote:[Bulman] said when he told Mr. Christie he is from upstate New York, “he said, ‘I’m not much different from Andrew Cuomo. I probably agree with him on 98% of the issues.’ ” Mr. Bulman said Gov. Christie “sees value in the building trades, which are private sector unions. He complimented us and said he uses us as an example of a pro-business union.” Is he really this undisciplined or has he just stopped giving a poo poo? Depending on how the schedule shakes out it's becoming increasingly difficult to see him getting very far at this point.
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Feb 19, 2013 05:27
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ufarn posted:Unlikely. He works for Fox News now.
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Feb 19, 2013 07:07
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orangesampson posted:Not to be out done, but I hope Bobby Jindal throws himself into the ring. They tried this in Nebraska, too. It failed here. It's basically this year's murder-your-employees-for-fun-and-profit/VOTE? HAH gently caress YOU legislation
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Feb 19, 2013 09:11
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R.A. Dickey posted:Well this surely wont be used against Chris Christie in a GOP primary: Christie/Cuomo as some bullshit fake-centrist Bloomberg-financed third party run in '16
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Feb 19, 2013 12:16
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Baruch Obamawitz posted:Christie/Cuomo as some bullshit fake-centrist Bloomberg-financed third party run in '16 Oh God I just threw up a little in my mouth.
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Feb 19, 2013 12:46
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Baruch Obamawitz posted:Christie/Cuomo as some bullshit fake-centrist Bloomberg-financed third party run in '16 greatn posted:Oh God I just threw up a little in my mouth. I'd think that might be a Perot '92 type situation rather than a Nader '00.
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Feb 19, 2013 14:57
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api call girl posted:I'd think that might be a Perot '92 type situation rather than a Nader '00. Probably, but I'd still be sickened by the media praise of how "serious" and "bipartisan" these "brave mavericks" were.
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Feb 19, 2013 15:00
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R.A. Dickey posted:Well this surely wont be used against Chris Christie in a GOP primary: He just knows he can't win a republican nomination and will now be governor from NJ for 4 more years and then destroy menendez and become a Senator from NJ forever until his weight kills him.
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Feb 19, 2013 15:26
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Joementum posted:Ben Carson is basically Herman Cain 2.0. A lot of extremely well educated people are extremely ignorant about things outside of their professional field. It's also been shown that the more educated someone is the harder it is to get them to change their mind about things they think they know or their values, which is more of a "hey I'm a smart guy from an elite institution, what do you know". In fact the more someone trusts themselves because of this the more diehard they become about their being right and everyone else being morons. Herman Cain and Carson might be more extreme examples, but this sort of stuff is extremely common. It's just most of them annoy their coworkers by espousing bullshit. These two just managed to do it in front of a TV camera.
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Feb 19, 2013 15:39
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R.A. Dickey posted:Is he really this undisciplined or has he just stopped giving a poo poo? Depending on how the schedule shakes out it's becoming increasingly difficult to see him getting very far at this point.
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Feb 19, 2013 16:02
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Timeless Appeal posted:Sure the Republicans might hate him for it and he might not get through the primaries to try it out, but what's the point of winning the primaries if you compromise your ability to win the actual election along the way? Unfortunately, the last two guys the Republicans put up didn't realize this. Most of them want the Presidency enough to compromise whatever is left of their core principles. Hell, it broke John McCain pretty thoroughly. Huntsman was the only guy last cycle who didn't drink the teabagger Kool-Aid, and he had to eject early because the voter base thought he was a filthy liberal. Fritz Coldcockin fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Feb 19, 2013 |
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Feb 19, 2013 16:20
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I am not sure Jon's problem was being seen as too liberal, he just wasn't a very good campaigner. He didn't have a good strategy, didn't have any good ads, didn't have any stand out debate performances, just all around did nothing of note.
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Feb 19, 2013 16:26
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Vivek posted:Any thoughts on Ben Carson? He's basically exactly what the GOP is looking for right now; he's a black man who grew up poor, yet rebuked Obama's policies to his face on a public stage, and he has major intellectual credibility but is still religious to the point of not believing in evolution. Apparently a lot of people have asked him to run for president and he's said, “If the Lord grabbed me by the collar and made me do it, I would." Which is kind of Sarah Palin-y, but also sounds like someone seriously considering it. Obviously he has no political experience so he could burn out like Herman Cain, but right now I think he has goodwill to spare. Hell, I first heard of him in The Wire, where he was mentioned as one of the few positive role models in Baltimore for inner city kids. I've known of Ben Carson for a long time, from a distance. He's got everything that should make him a hero in the inner-city (grew up poor, found himself in education, sterling resume that includes groundbreaking medical procedures), but he's tossing that all away to become a Tea Partier. Carson does have goodwill to spare, but he's going to lose it quickly (if he hasn't already lost it) by basically turning on the people who want to hold him up. Detroit Public Schools recently named a new, science-focused high school after Ben Carson, of all things. http://detroitk12.org/content/2011/...-with-students/ It opened for the 2011-12 school year. Sadly, I see Ben Carson's role as being the black Tea Partier who rubberstamps all the dogwhistle poo poo that the Tea Party espouses. How could we be racist, in saying that ______? We have Dr. Ben Carson, he's black! It's going to be quite sad.
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Feb 19, 2013 17:13
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Yup. Remember that in his Prayer Breakfast speech to Obama he referenced the  Death Panels and a bunch of other kooky Tea Party nonsense that's long been debunked.His campaign would be a Cain/Bachmann style circus.
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Feb 19, 2013 17:15
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Is it money? Does that really do this to people?
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Feb 19, 2013 17:22
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greatn posted:Is it money? Does that really do this to people? Some people react to getting money by having perspective on how lucky they are, others think they are Randian god-men who are simply better than everyone else.
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Feb 19, 2013 17:34
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greatn posted:Is it money? Does that really do this to people? To suppose, as we all suppose, that we could be rich and not behave the way the rich behave, is like supposing that we could drink all day and stay sober.
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Feb 19, 2013 17:34
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greatn posted:Is it money? Does that really do this to people? It's the same basic socialization that applies to almost everyone. 1. Carson is a Christian fundamentalist and finds comfort in the social circles of other Christen fundamentalists. 2. One of the two political parties contains a significant percentage of Christian fundamentalists as members. 3. Carson is not informed / doesn't feel strongly about many issues (just like almost everyone) and adopts the views of the social circle he is apart of. 4. Believing in biblical infallibility and hostility to evolution leads to favoring health savings accounts and tax cuts for the wealthy. What do those issues have to do with one another? Nothing. But it is a basic socialization process. Why do an overwhelming amount of strongly secular people also favor economic redistribution? There is no direct connection between the two, but it's the same process. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 17:40 on Feb 19, 2013 |
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Feb 19, 2013 17:38
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mcmagic posted:Some people react to getting money by having perspective on how lucky they are, others think they are Randian god-men who are simply better than everyone else. I'm going to parrot this line probably once a month for the rest of my life.
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Feb 19, 2013 17:59
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greatn posted:I am not sure Jon's problem was being seen as too liberal, he just wasn't a very good campaigner. He didn't have a good strategy, didn't have any good ads, didn't have any stand out debate performances, just all around did nothing of note. He was though. He worked in the Obama White House and hung around limo liberals. Many of those same liberals were the ones shilling for him which lead to all the "you're in the wrong party bub", and then right after the election he went on to become a fellow in the most prestigious liberal think tank there is, Brookings. Huntsman was always an elite Democrat or Centrists idea of what a Republican/Conservative should be. That's how you launch vanity campaigns, get good press, or win a Democratic nomination, not how you win a Republican one.
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Feb 19, 2013 19:33
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SilentD posted:He was though. He worked in the Obama White House and hung around limo liberals. Many of those same liberals were the ones shilling for him which lead to all the "you're in the wrong party bub", and then right after the election he went on to become a fellow in the most prestigious liberal think tank there is, Brookings. Well in fairness that IS how republicans used to be before the monster they created with their batshit base took over.
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Feb 19, 2013 22:53
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SilentD posted:Huntsman was always an elite Democrat or Centrists idea of what a Republican/Conservative should be. That's how you launch vanity campaigns, get good press, or win a Democratic nomination, not how you win a Republican one. Huntsman is basically Mitt Romney minus one generation. If Republicans were smarter/less insane, he'd be a Republican/Conservative's idea of what an electable (and still quite conservative) Republican should be.
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Feb 19, 2013 23:28
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menino posted:Huntsman is basically Mitt Romney minus one generation. If Republicans were smarter/less insane, he'd be a Republican/Conservative's idea of what an electable (and still quite conservative) Republican should be. George Romney didn't have much of a chance a generation ago either, so it's not like Republicans were that much less conservative.
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Feb 19, 2013 23:47
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