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MeramJert posted:Well yeah, but the value obviously isn't contractually obligated to go up 35% a year and anyone that thinks it will is insane. The Hong Kong property market is insane. Let me quote caberham: caberham posted:Buy a luxury flat, sit on it for a few years then sell it again, more free money - so much money that you don't even need a job for the rest of your life once you flip 2. The sad part is, I am not sure if he was joking. I honestly don't think he was.
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Mar 14, 2013 04:32
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By the time you read this Xi Jinping has been elected as president of China and of the Central Military Commission. This is inevitable despite the legitimacy of China's Political Season. I already know it's a farce because it's scripted.
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Mar 14, 2013 05:06
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Pro-PRC Laowai posted:Sino-Soviet split is becoming obvious and China is increasingly out in the cold. USSR just reneged on helping with nukes. The USSR conscientiously and intelligently stopped assisting China with nuclear technology after Mao openly said something to the effect of "who cares how many Chinese die, we can always make more." Reneged is not the correct word to use here.
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Mar 14, 2013 05:21
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Bloodnose posted:Sorry to interrupt MaoChat, but there's important (and hilarious) poo poo going on in the present. quote:They were easily identifiable by an ancient symbol of a stylised bat hovering over a coin
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Mar 14, 2013 05:33
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Longanimitas posted:The USSR conscientiously and intelligently stopped assisting China with nuclear technology after Mao openly said something to the effect of "who cares how many Chinese die, we can always make more." Reneged is not the correct word to use here. Mao's lunatic-level blitheness on the subject of nuclear weapons managed to scare the poo poo out of Khrushchev, who basically thought he was nuts. Every time Mao would telegram him demanding Soviet support for this-or-that he would include some random aside on how it would be No Big Deal if half the world was wiped out or whatever.
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Mar 14, 2013 05:34
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So, I'm just going to a random real estate website. Looking at one the luxury flats where Jean Claud Van Damme supposedly lives, "The Arch". Yes, Hong Kong real estate developers have horrible taste. Vulgar trashy names like Beverely Hills, Residence Bel-Air, Regence Royale （with an "e" like Royale with Cheese), the Cullinan. The Chinese names are even worst too. Regence Royale 富匯豪庭 - literally means "Wealthy luxurious people's gathering" or "Rich people's club"  Cullinan 天璽 - "Heavenly Imperial Seal"  Communists party members loving Qing Dynasty references, that's just brilliant.Anyways, let's hit the numbers, back to the JVCD's house. http://hk.centadata.com/ptest.aspx?type=1&code=ESPPWPPEPD&info=trandetail&code2=12112301220025&page=0  3 years ago, all those prices were half. 9 months ago, all those prices are starting to come down because of the sudden increase in stamp duty, non-resident tax, and other capital controls. Let's say you flip two houses within 5 years. And after stamp duty and other government fees that will still round you to HKD 30000000 (that's 30 million). That's 6 million HKD a year. Looking at a [url="https://"http://www.gov.hk/en/about/abouthk/factsheets/docs/population.pdf"]fact sheet of 2010[/url] The median income is 18,000. That's 333 times. Yeah, with that money and a middle class life style of coffee, and movies. I can totally sit on my rear end and watch anime all day long and be supreme goon lord. But let's put this in a more American perspective. 30 million HKD amounts to USD 3,867,030. If you make 60k a year, that's 64.4 years. Now you won't be bill gates rich but I think if you live frugal enough you definitely can get by. Pay student loans. Pay for a small house. Food shouldn't be a problem. And if you work, then you are definitely OK. But houses won't ever go up all the time? That's the funny part. The truly rich who can afford to lose or those who just dabble in a house here and there come out on top. Or they just sit on the house, rent it out or whatever and then sell if off again! After a round of mass suicides by charcoal asphyxiation or jumping off buildings. House prices will crash and that's when the vultures dive in. Hong Kong had a few down turns, 2008, sub prime, local stock markets etc. But the market goes in cycles, the wealth gap will continue to widen. The housing market is a game for the 1% with the illusion that everyone can be rich. But if you don't climb onboard the train to own property, you get pushed out on where to stay etc. But how rich can those 1% guys be? They rent serviced apartments in the heart of city centres and just flip houses/stocks here and there.  rent per month： HKD 84,000 / USD 10,8000 up caberham fucked around with this message at 05:44 on Mar 14, 2013 |
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Mar 14, 2013 05:35
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Jkid posted:By the time you read this Xi Jinping has been elected as president of China and of the Central Military Commission. This is inevitable despite the legitimacy of China's Political Season. I already know it's a farce because it's scripted. Meh, it's just that the horsetrading and deals have long since been struck to make enough people happy.
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Mar 14, 2013 05:36
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caberham posted:But houses won't ever go up all the time? That's the funny part. The truly rich who can afford to lose or those who just dabble in a house here and there come out on top. Or they just sit on the house, rent it out or whatever and then sell if off again! After a round of mass suicides by charcoal asphyxiation or jumping off buildings. House prices will crash and that's when the vultures dive in. Hong Kong had a few down turns, 2008, sub prime, local stock markets etc. But the market goes in cycles, the wealth gap will continue to widen. So, you see the housing market in HK crash and burn for whatever reason, and then mainlanders swoop in and gobble it all up? I see that hong kong mortgages are full-recourse. Are there any protections in place that keep people from being kicked to the street?
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Mar 14, 2013 05:42
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Hey dude I've got the perfect investment opportunity for you. I guarantee year-on-year returns over 100%! 
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Mar 14, 2013 05:44
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hitension posted:The thing is, with any of these tragedies where millions of people have died, it's inherently difficult to measure the number of deaths: I wholeheartedly agree with this. To me, it seems like the party just wants to bury its past and move on to the new plan. I know I always talk shop about HK stuff, but HK really became a regional powerhouse because it attracted talent and mass migrations from mainland tragedies. Early Textile factories and tailors were all old Shanghai merchants, Cheap back alley unlicensed doctors in Hong Kong were actually experienced prestigious doctors from the mainland. It was a constant wave after wave of immigration to escape economic hardship. And each wave of migrants offered some sort of skilled labour to the city. It's just nowadays the old formula has been *slightly* modified to accommodate mainland extravagance Pro-PRC Laowai posted:So, you see the housing market in HK crash and burn for whatever reason, and then mainlanders swoop in and gobble it all up? Pretty much true about mainlanders. They were the ones who moved hot money and rebooted the tourist economy, the real estate economy, starting IPO's. HK has no protections to keep people off the streets. Bailiff's have plentiful experience in seizing items. The law states that bailiffs can not seize items in use. So no they can't rip your shirt off and sell the fabric when you go broke. So people turn everything On in their household. The lights, the stove, the TV, etc. If you are kicked out of your house, you can also apply for social assistance and move into welfare housing (good luck on lining up!). Oh it's bound to happen. But people made money and some have already come out richer. Even during the sub-prime and afterwards, there was major big money to be made. It's those late to the game or those who don't budget for a rainy day choke 
caberham fucked around with this message at 06:50 on Mar 14, 2013 |
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Mar 14, 2013 05:51
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The people who made money after subprime were the ones who weren't holding hyper-priced real estate when the whole thing collapsed. The people who made money beforehand were either running the scam or they got lucky and got out soon enough. Even early Ponzi scheme punters make money. I'm not denying there's massive money in real estate speculation in HK. There obviously is. That's why it's gotten so crazy. I'm saying this whole party is coming to an end soon, and the people who will really suffer are the ones who are borrowing to participate. NEWS FROM TODAY: Mortgage rates rise .25%. And since everyone in Hong Kong is on an adjustable-rate mortgage... Well, this is just the tip of the iceberg.
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Mar 14, 2013 05:55
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caberham, how is an influx of unlicensed, back alley doctors something that helped turn Hong Kong into an economic powerhouse? I genuinely don't understand that point.
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Mar 14, 2013 06:45
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Can you post some more walls of text and screenshots/MSpaint? I am still unclear about the part where  your life isn't worth living anymore because Jean Claude Van Damme has a nicer house than you.(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 14, 2013 06:55
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MeramJert posted:caberham, how is an influx of unlicensed, back alley doctors something that helped turn Hong Kong into an economic powerhouse? I genuinely don't understand that point. Presumably because a trained if unlicensed doctor who will work for affordable rates is better than no doctor?
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Mar 14, 2013 06:58
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Most problems people visit doctors for are just routine ailments. There's no reason for someone to have trained 12 years in order to prescribe an antibiotic. Nor is much training necessary for basic first aid. Probably 50% of what people in the USA visit emergency rooms for could be more efficiently treated by a barefoot doctor. People earlier were talking about the New York Times and China. I couldn't help but notice the completely unnecessary barb at the end of this article: http://intransit.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/01/visa-requirements-lifted-for-short-stays-in-china/ New York Times posted:In an effort to encourage stopovers, the Chinese government has lifted its visa requirement for residents of the United States and 44 other nations staying in Beijing and Shanghai for up to 72 hours. So they print a whole article about how China is doing this (not) new thing, and then at the end throw in "don't try this though because who knows how it works" - but they've been doing this for a while, right? I remember someone talking about it in the T&T thread last year, they said it was easy to do. So the NYT prints an article about a thing in China but doesn't bother talking to anyone outside a travel agent in Illinois? Also there's a really gory Hong Kong movie about a woman who murders people in order to buy their property. I'd highly recommend it, but can't remember the title. Be Depressive fucked around with this message at 07:18 on Mar 14, 2013 |
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Mar 14, 2013 07:09
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I just went through Shanghai Pudong airport and there were signs about this 72-hour stopover policy that made it seem pretty new, but I know a guy before who stopped over in the airport for a little while without problems.
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Mar 14, 2013 07:18
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It's been in place for years, but used to be a shorter amount of time, like 24 or 48 hours? I also remember someone at a bar talking about doing this several years ago.
Be Depressive fucked around with this message at 07:22 on Mar 14, 2013 |
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Mar 14, 2013 07:19
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Be Depressive posted:
Dream Home or 維多利亞一號, starring Josie Ho. It's great! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSwIrXpvwIo
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Mar 14, 2013 08:55
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Be Depressive posted:Most problems people visit doctors for are just routine ailments. There's no reason for someone to have trained 12 years in order to prescribe an antibiotic. Nor is much training necessary for basic first aid. Probably 50% of what people in the USA visit emergency rooms for could be more efficiently treated by a barefoot doctor. Hah. Well, makes sense really if you're a travel agent (dying industry). Just one less fee you can get away with charging.
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Mar 14, 2013 10:44
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Longanimitas posted:The USSR conscientiously and intelligently stopped assisting China with nuclear technology after Mao openly said something to the effect of "who cares how many Chinese die, we can always make more." Reneged is not the correct word to use here. It's pretty bad when Khrushchev, a man known for his love of ridiculous schemes and belligerent theatrics, thinks you're a lunatic. The fact that the Soviet Union had the moral and ethical high ground on China should tell you something about Mao's regime. EDIT: Doesn't China already have an informal network of money lenders that are comparable to payday loan operations in the US? I've heard talk about them before but I've never found anything substantial. I think at its best China's economy is going to stall out and at its worst is going to crash when the property bubble bursts. There's going to be a lot of discontent too because people firmly believe the government is going to prevent it from happening. RocknRollaAyatollah fucked around with this message at 13:07 on Mar 14, 2013 |
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Mar 14, 2013 12:31
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RocknRollaAyatollah posted:Doesn't China already have an informal network of money lenders that are comparable to payday loan operations in the US? I've heard talk about them before but I've never found anything substantial. Yes, one of my friends here and his dad ran one of those money lending businesses for a number of years, until one of their family friends doing the same business went to jail and his daughter was born. They closed up shop and he opened a legit travel company. I'm not completely sure of the details either, other than that it has something to do with credit cards and having dozens of bank accounts in different names and I imagine very careful record keeping. The guy is filthy rich now and owns a gigantic apartment in Shenzhen, like 5 or 6 different cars and tons of ridiculous stuff.
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Mar 14, 2013 13:19
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RocknRollaAyatollah posted:It's pretty bad when Khrushchev, a man known for his love of ridiculous schemes and belligerent theatrics, thinks you're a lunatic. The fact that the Soviet Union had the moral and ethical high ground on China should tell you something about Mao's regime. Had more to do with ideological differences than anything else. Well, that and the USSR pretty much being dicks.
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Mar 14, 2013 13:28
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Just to play devil's advocate, why wouldn't HK property prices keep going up for the foreseeable future? There are tons of rich mainlanders out there, it's easy for them to move to HK or buy a second apartment there and go back and forth to Henan or wherever, and HK is a far more desirable place to live than most of the mainland. If you accept these fundamentals you would expect high demand for HK real estate and thus increasing prices. Same thing with Singapore, for that matter.
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Mar 14, 2013 15:02
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Also, unlike mainland China, the US and many other places, the territory is incredibly finite. Add that to all your pluses and it actually does make more sense - though I have no idea if it's actually sensible.
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Mar 14, 2013 15:05
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Pro-PRC Laowai posted:Had more to do with ideological differences than anything else. Well, that and the USSR pretty much being dicks. Come on man, you have to admit Mao had a taste for saying provocative things, regardless of the consequences. This is a positive quality if your job is Head Better Revolutionary, but not so much for a head of state doing critical negotiations over nuclear policies. If I recall he made several other comments about half the Chinese population dying in meetings with his own government. Gail Wynand posted:Just to play devil's advocate, why wouldn't HK property prices keep going up for the foreseeable future? There are tons of rich mainlanders out there, it's easy for them to move to HK or buy a second apartment there and go back and forth to Henan or wherever, and HK is a far more desirable place to live than most of the mainland. If you accept these fundamentals you would expect high demand for HK real estate and thus increasing prices. Same thing with Singapore, for that matter. One would think the rich mainlanders aren't the ones going to the shadow banking system for subprime mortgage loans. The existence of a shadow mortgage market itself is cause for concern. Arglebargle III fucked around with this message at 15:11 on Mar 14, 2013 |
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Mar 14, 2013 15:08
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Well, the government has already slapped an automatic 15% tax on any mainlanders (or foreigners) buying, plus a bonus tax if you sell within a certain period (I think 2 years) which has already seen mainland demand fall off quite a bit. Even so, mainlanders don't actually live in the places or even use them as summer homes or whatever, for the most part. They're usually speculative investments i.e. methods of money laundering. Once corruption slows down, so will mainlanders buying homes in HK. Housing prices will always be relatively high for what you get. It's the government's whole tax strategy. They have literally trillions of HK dollars in reserve from land sales that came from holding onto land and releasing it to developers gradually. But the question is the relative price point of individual apartments (houses are rare), rising or falling? It's pretty obvious that the current insane prices are unsustainable at like 50 times median annual family income. They're gonna fall.
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Mar 14, 2013 15:19
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I just have a quick "help me with my homework" question for China-watching folks. Several years ago (2005-2008? Bad memory) there was an incident where a Chinese fishing boat tried to leave a Russian port without authorization and was fired on, I think causing some deaths. Does anyone remember it well enough to find an article on it? I came up empty on LexisNexis, but maybe I've remembered some of the details wrong and am using the wrong search terms.
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Mar 14, 2013 18:50
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Fiendish_Ghoul posted:I just have a quick "help me with my homework" question for China-watching folks. Several years ago (2005-2008? Bad memory) there was an incident where a Chinese fishing boat tried to leave a Russian port without authorization and was fired on, I think causing some deaths. Does anyone remember it well enough to find an article on it? I came up empty on LexisNexis, but maybe I've remembered some of the details wrong and am using the wrong search terms. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Star_ship_incident
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Mar 14, 2013 19:17
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Thanks. Wow, my sense of time is messed up.
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Mar 14, 2013 20:15
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Interesting video of a reporter being detained in Beijing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZjsenUWFyI
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Mar 15, 2013 19:18
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sincx fucked around with this message at 05:42 on Mar 23, 2021 |
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Mar 15, 2013 19:21
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Oceania and Eurasia and Eastasia have always been allies. And don't you go trying to gently caress things up, reporter.
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Mar 15, 2013 20:20
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sincx posted:Yeah, just came to post that. More info: I take offense to the words "Sky" "News" and "reporter" being next to each other.
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Mar 16, 2013 01:08
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To be fair, the oddity is not being asked to stop filming - police everywhere do that kind of thing. It's that the police then took the guy somewhere (not a police station because obviously that would somehow raise the stakes - clearly without realizing that interviewing someone in a random building is much worse) and questioned them about stuff. I would be very surprised if the police guy in the square even heard him say anything about 1989,he probably just acted on an order to watch closely for passes, didn't see one and then everything just proceeded into a standard issue clusterfuck. Jesus Sky News, a full mini-segment on this issue for the evening program? If this happens often, like what-his-chuff says, then why such a song and dance? I am pretty sure this reporter saw an opportunity and decided to engineer this - I am willing to bet that it could have been avoided. First of all, by making sure he carried his passport (I don't carry it with me when I go out normally, granted, but I am not a reporter filming outside public buildings, I am a random dude buying some groceries). [edit] Just to be clear, I am not condoning a police state, just Lolling@n00b. GuestBob fucked around with this message at 03:44 on Mar 16, 2013 |
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Mar 16, 2013 03:41
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GuestBob posted:Jesus Sky News, a full mini-segment on this issue for the evening program? If this happens often, like what-his-chuff says, then why such a song and dance? The fact that this happens often implies that nobody is doing anything about it. That's the idealistic way to look at it, but it's more likely to be a 'Gosh them Chinese sure are power hungry' segment than anything
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Mar 16, 2013 04:26
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WarpedNaba posted:The fact that this happens often implies that nobody is doing anything about it. Well considering they had permission to film there, all they had to do when confronted was present their credentials and bam, end of confrontation. Would not be at all surprised if the confrontation was entirely staged. See cops coming over, quick say something controversial to make it look like something it's not. Didn't lock them away, didn't confiscate their stuff, took them to the park and had a nice little chat about why they need to carry their passports and show their credentials. It's a simple easy to follow regulation that is clearly spelled out. No arrest, no beatdown, just a quick gank to a place where they don't have permission to film and a talking to. Oh the oppression! Laff.
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Mar 16, 2013 07:14
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RocknRollaAyatollah posted:It's pretty bad when Khrushchev, a man known for his love of ridiculous schemes and belligerent theatrics, thinks you're a lunatic. The fact that the Soviet Union had the moral and ethical high ground on China should tell you something about Mao's regime. Khrushchev was known for such things because of western propaganda against him, and because brinksmanship demands you appear a little crazier than you are. In reality, he was probably one of the smartest, most cautious people in the cold war at the time. Remember, Khrushchev was the guy responsible for the secret speech against Stalin, and in the Cuban missile crisis (a crisis that I would argue was actually precipitated by US installation of missiles in Turkey), his actions stood out clearly relative to almost everyone else's. At the end of the day, Khrushchev was the one who accepted the humiliation of the apparent climbdown after the crisis (Kennedy demanded that the Turkish withdrawal be kept secret) despite pretty much the entire politburo and Castro and China and LeMay and the US military establishment all pushing for tougher actions on each side. On the other hand Mao's statements (especially Khrushchev's recounting of them) needs to be seen in context. Because the broad world opinion after the Cuban crisis was that 'Kennedy forced Khrushchev to back down', it became an opportunity for everyone to kick the USSR in the balls for a while for being weak under US threats. Mao's attacks on Soviet weakness sound more rhetorical than deeply felt, given that this Sino-Soviet split will end with him doing deals with the US.
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Mar 16, 2013 15:08
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If some of you guys are so confident on an impending housing apocalypse in China why not invest your money into some short index linked to China's construction/real estate market? You could get theoretically get rich overnight if it does crash sort of like that guy who bet on subprime happening and became a billionaire.
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Mar 16, 2013 18:23
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Modus Operandi posted:If some of you guys are so confident on an impending housing apocalypse in China why not invest your money into some short index linked to China's construction/real estate market? You could get theoretically get rich overnight if it does crash sort of like that guy who bet on subprime happening and became a billionaire. This is a wee bit different in that everyone sees this coming, and it is a matter of whether China can prevent it or not. It's becoming freer by the day, but it is still largely a command economy.
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Mar 16, 2013 18:29
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Arkane posted:This is a wee bit different in that everyone sees this coming, and it is a matter of whether China can prevent it or not. It's becoming freer by the day, but it is still largely a command economy. If you're a true pessimist then it's a pretty logical investment. China's bubble is more similar to the UAE's and a lot of people saw that one coming too. The first thing that started to free fall after the crash were all the rich gulf arab construction firm/real estate stocks.
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Mar 16, 2013 18:36
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