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http://news.yahoo.com/high-ranking-syrian-general-defects-army-174227684.htmlquote:Maj. Gen. Mohammed Ezz al-Din Khalouf announced his defection from Assad's regime in a video aired Saturday on the Al-Arabiya satellite channel. It showed him sitting next to his son, Capt. Ezz al-Din Khalouf, who defected with him. Did we miss this?
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Mar 16, 2013 22:13
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Warcabbit posted:http://news.yahoo.com/high-ranking-syrian-general-defects-army-174227684.html quote:He also said fighters from the Lebanese military group Hezbollah were fighting in Syria in "more than one place," but did not give further details.
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Mar 16, 2013 22:23
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Brown Moses posted:I'm starting to strongly believe they've been fighting in Homs based off some of the unusual weapons turning up there, including US Dragon AT missiles manufacted in 1977, Israeli mortar shells, and IRAMs. It makes sense, there are Shia' villages on the outskirts of Homs. I can't recall where I saw it, but Hizballah is reportedly training local Shia' to form their own militias to fight against the rebels- something they've done all over Southern Lebanon to act as auxiliary fighters in the event of another Israeli invasion. I would really love to read a paper looking at Hizballah's doctrine and strategy from a Maoist perspective.
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Mar 16, 2013 22:31
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Brown Moses posted:I'm starting to strongly believe they've been fighting in Homs based off some of the unusual weapons turning up there, including US Dragon AT missiles manufacted in 1977, Israeli mortar shells, and IRAMs. Both the rebels and Hezbullah have said there are Hezbullah units in the Shiite villages around Homs, I'd say you're right, it does make a lot of sense.
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Mar 16, 2013 22:47
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Note to Brown Moses, you probably already knew this, but just in case, apparently this was the 747 that was fired on by rebel forces in Syria a month or so back.
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Mar 16, 2013 23:00
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I find it very interesting that in all the talk about Damscus heating up, media sort of glosses over Darayya. I don't think there's a more significant place to hold right now in all of Damascus, and despie this, The SAA has been trying to push out the FSA for something like 6 months out of an area that's essentialy four city blocks (edit: that's actually bollocks, it's much larger these days). You can actually see Assad's palace from Darayya - take a look at the NewsANNA videos, it's the white building on the hilltop. You wouldn't be able to mortar the place, but it's sure as hell a significant vantage point to hold. What's more important about Darayya is the fact that it straddles a crucial intersection. To the north, it overlooks Al Mezzeh, a major artery going into city centre, running by some key ministries. Just a kilometre or two further down the road, the Damascus-Beirut higway branches of into a private freeway to Assad's palace. This road is the only way to get from the palace to either the old Mezzeh airbase (now a Heliport, impossible to use due to proximity from Darayya) or the International Airport (this route is constantly under attack, plus it's around 20-30 kilometres I think). That's not all though - Darayya overlooks two key roads south - one towards Al Quneitra and the Jewish border, which is the gateway towards the Golan, and the other towards the border crossing with Jordan. Hold Darayya, and you cut the south of the country off. Darayya also overlooks the aforementioned higway to Beirut. If the rebels capture Darayya and the town in the next valley, Quara Al-Assad, they'll control the route into Beirut. Problem here is that Quara Al-Assad is the town where all the military and government big wigs live, and the valley between the town and Damascus (not the Beirut-Damascus higway, which cuts directly through the hills) houses numerous military bases, including the main special forces base. Capuring Darayya and Quara Al-Assad would mean that the rebels would control 2 out of 3 approaches to the palace, the third being a route directly into the city. I'd say that Darayya is a barometer of The Assad military force strength. It's not looking good for him, all things considered. Mokotow fucked around with this message at 23:46 on Mar 16, 2013 |
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Mar 16, 2013 23:38
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I wonder when the Arab Spring will actually end. By that I mean what point historians will choose as its ending, because I have a feeling this could go on for a long time. Countries like Egypt have been nominally successful, but are far from stable. In places like Bahrain and Iran, protests have been repressed, but it probably won't take much for them to start again. Syria alone will be unstable for years. At which point will people say, 'that's when the Arab Spring ended'?
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Mar 17, 2013 00:13
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John Dough posted:I wonder when the Arab Spring will actually end. By that I mean what point historians will choose as its ending, because I have a feeling this could go on for a long time. Countries like Egypt have been nominally successful, but are far from stable. In places like Bahrain and Iran, protests have been repressed, but it probably won't take much for them to start again. Syria alone will be unstable for years. At which point will people say, 'that's when the Arab Spring ended'? Well actually according to a lot of people it ended pretty quickly. When it became clear that secular dictators were merely being replaced by Islamists who don't appear to care too much about democracy, human rights, womens rights, freedom of speech, and economic development then for a lot of people that was enough to declare the Arab Spring more or less dead.
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Mar 17, 2013 03:16
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Charliegrs posted:Well actually according to a lot of people it ended pretty quickly. When it became clear that secular dictators were merely being replaced by Islamists who don't appear to care too much about democracy, human rights, womens rights, freedom of speech, and economic development then for a lot of people that was enough to declare the Arab Spring more or less dead. The Islamists aren't really that different from the religious wings in the US, so I don't see how that's an automatic condemnation of democracy.
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Mar 17, 2013 03:37
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The status of the economy was a large part of sparking each revolution in the first place, just to point out one fallacy of your statement. The French revolution took many decades to show a stable and democratic nation and for it to be what it is today. The French revolution was also was plagued by issues of democracy, human rights, women's rights, freedom of speech, economic development and religion. They faced an even bigger challenge - defying centuries of monarchy. People also decried the French revolution because it wasn't a true democracy at the start - and there was also the propaganda from Monarch states at the time because they were afraid - just like what is happening now. Guess what, freedom isn't easy. Dictatorship is not the answer in the Middle East. It will be a slow and painful process to convert the world to become free and democratic nations.
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Mar 17, 2013 04:45
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computer parts posted:The Islamists aren't really that different from the religious wings in the US, so I don't see how that's an automatic condemnation of democracy. Yeah you are exactly right. However, in the US we have never had an actual Christian government so its hard to say what it would be like. Unlike the Middle East where some countries (like Iran) have Islamic Governments. Sure we've had some presidents and presidential candidates that wished America would be a straight up Christian government that only looked to the Bible for our laws but no one has ever been crazy enough to try to completely undo the separation of Church and State. However, if that actually happened in the US and someone like Rick Santorum X 100 became president I don't think that would bode well for our democracy anymore.
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Mar 17, 2013 05:00
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Charliegrs posted:Well actually according to a lot of people it ended pretty quickly. When it became clear that secular dictators were merely being replaced by Islamists who don't appear to care too much about democracy, human rights, womens rights, freedom of speech, and economic development then for a lot of people that was enough to declare the Arab Spring more or less dead. Well this sounds like Egypt for the moment, but the Egyptian people certainly aren't in the mood to take poo poo, so I don't think it's going to be a huge step backwards for them. Tunisia and Libya both have had some reassuring moments.
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Mar 17, 2013 05:07
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Charliegrs posted:Yeah you are exactly right. However, in the US we have never had an actual Christian government so its hard to say what it would be like. Most of the colonies were explicitly Christian and of a specific denomination at that, and furthermore throughout the 19th century a lot of states were de facto Christian governments, because seperation of church and state wasn't taken very seriously at all.
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Mar 17, 2013 05:12
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Let me be clear. I was only responding to John Doughs post about how the history books will represent the Arab Spring. We all know how its going so far, which is to say not the way many of us would have hoped or thought it would go when the Arab Spring was still very young. We were all hoping (at least in the Western World) that the Middle East would finally break free of the endless dictatorships it has been ruled by for decades. The protests and uprisings that have taken place have mostly been the work of more liberal forces in these countries. However, it seems as though those movements have been co-opted by the Islamists who have had more organization prior to the uprisings such as the Muslim Brotherhood. With the history of Islamic governments in the region it doesnt give much hope to those who wish to see true democracy in the countries that have experienced revolutions in the last few years. My personal opinion is that what we see today in places like Egypt and Libya is part of a long, slow, tumultuous transformation into real democracies. Albeit democracy middle east style, ala Turkey. There will be ups and downs, and many disappointments along the way but I think in the end the liberals in the middle east will win because now they at least have a voice. My reply to John Dough was simply what others have said about the current state of the Arab Spring. Some journalistic outlets have declared it all but dead, like this article : http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/arab-spring-or-islamist-winter And its a valid argument. The Arab Spring only started about 2 years ago, and it can end in many ways. None of which we can really predict at this point. But its just as plausible to think the majority of the Middle East will look like Saudi Arabia or Iran in 10-20 years from now as it is to say it will look like Turkey.
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Mar 17, 2013 07:24
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A little off topic, but I read something interesting in this article about the UNs Declaration on Violence against Women: http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/16/17339633-analysis-will-un-declaration-on-violence-against-women-change-egypt?lite This paragraph caught my attention: "The passage of the declaration, a victory for women in general, may not change life in the short term for Egypt’s females. At present, 83% of Egyptian women face sexual harassment, over 90% have undergone female genital mutilation and almost 35% suffer domestic violence." Over 90% of Egyptian women have undergone female genital mutilation? That seems incredibly high. Can anyone confirm if that is true?
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Mar 17, 2013 08:13
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Charliegrs posted:Let me be clear. I was only responding to John Doughs post about how the history books will represent the Arab Spring. We all know how its going so far, which is to say not the way many of us would have hoped or thought it would go when the Arab Spring was still very young. We were all hoping (at least in the Western World) that the Middle East would finally break free of the endless dictatorships it has been ruled by for decades. The protests and uprisings that have taken place have mostly been the work of more liberal forces in these countries. However, it seems as though those movements have been co-opted by the Islamists who have had more organization prior to the uprisings such as the Muslim Brotherhood. With the history of Islamic governments in the region it doesnt give much hope to those who wish to see true democracy in the countries that have experienced revolutions in the last few years. I think the main contention is that you think this is a 'middle eastern' problem - much like those opposed to the Arab Spring think that revolution is impossible due to the 'middle eastern' problem. No one with a sense of history expected more than what is, and those that do expect more than what is probable. Revolutions have never come to pass and succeed in their initial ideals over night. The American revolution took 7+ years. Think about that when you condemn the religious aspects of the Arab Spring. Also consider that the Iranian 'revolution' was never a revolution that had had any aspirations outside of a religious mafia imposing a theocracy - which is already crumbling in its conception.
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Mar 17, 2013 08:47
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Charliegrs posted:A little off topic, but I read something interesting in this article about the UNs Declaration on Violence against Women: http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/16/17339633-analysis-will-un-declaration-on-violence-against-women-change-egypt?lite Maybe a little high, but sure.
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Mar 17, 2013 11:37
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Charliegrs posted:A little off topic, but I read something interesting in this article about the UNs Declaration on Violence against Women: http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/16/17339633-analysis-will-un-declaration-on-violence-against-women-change-egypt?lite Yes, it's much more common in Egypt than in any other Arabic speaking country. Male circumcision is very common throughout, but FGM is associated more with Africa and several Muslim scholars (including the Dean of Al Azhar) have come out against it. I'm not sure why the Muslim Brotherhood are so protective of it.
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Mar 17, 2013 13:18
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Lascivious Sloth posted:I think the main contention is that you think this is a 'middle eastern' problem - much like those opposed to the Arab Spring think that revolution is impossible due to the 'middle eastern' problem. No one with a sense of history expected more than what is, and those that do expect more than what is probable. Revolutions have never come to pass and succeed in their initial ideals over night. The American revolution took 7+ years. Think about that when you condemn the religious aspects of the Arab Spring. Also consider that the Iranian 'revolution' was never a revolution that had had any aspirations outside of a religious mafia imposing a theocracy - which is already crumbling in its conception. Good post. Look at Tunisia for example. When the more liberal opposition leader was assassinated, and the opposition withdrew from the government, instead of the majority party saying "Hell yeah! No rules," they disbanded the government. That's so much progress from the prior dictatorship, it's insane. I think a lot of these countries may still be a work in progress 20 years from now, but I think the countries with successful revolutions have seen the last of no poo poo dictators because the Arab Spring set the precedent that people in the Middle East don't have to settle. Syrians aren't going to hesitate to whip the weapons back out if someone takes power and tries to oppress the people like Assad did. That carries over all around the region. Maybe they will only be a Turkey-level democracy for a while, but by the time they reach that point, Turkey will have progressed further, and the cycle will continue. The Muslim Brotherhood didn't co-opt the movement. That was who the people voted for. When you use the term "secular" to describe groups that put Islam 1st and 2nd in their agenda as opposed to 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th, there's some underlying issues there that are going to have to be addressed over the next 20 years. But the people are voting and involved on how those things will happen, and you can't overstate that in any way. Just because they haven't banned religion from politics or enacted single payer healthcare doesn't mean that there hasn't been tremendous progress. It's still a very exciting time for the region, and I think the future certainly looks a lot brighter than the past.
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Mar 17, 2013 15:52
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Well, this is a first, apparently a Chinese member of a Jihadist group in Syria https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hTJr9rgCx0
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Mar 17, 2013 17:19
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Brown Moses posted:Well, this is a first, apparently a Chinese member of a Jihadist group in Syria
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Mar 17, 2013 17:32
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I only watched part of it, but I guess he was in Libya for a while.
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Mar 17, 2013 17:54
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Interesting video of the Chinese Fighter. Notable the US is beefing up Pacific ICBM defenses in response to 'North Korea'. I think the Arab Spring ended with the very effective bombings by the Syrian Opposition in June/July-ish? Those killed big lieutenants of Assad and did not really fit into the people power (good) vs. tyrant (bad) narrative that the Spring had until then. The War on Terror narrative that started after 9/11 worked well for Russia and the US. Bush 'saw into Putin's soul' - America could deploy its military in Afghanistan and Putin would be free to crackdown as he saw fit on Chechen terrorists. China and any other legitimate state could manage 'terrorist' dissent. Gaddafi renounced WMDs and became a 'rehabilitated' tyrant. Now the definition between 'good mass uprising' and 'bad terrorism' in Syria is muddled, although ultimately Washington and the Kremlin have two very different narratives and sides on Syria. National governments are becoming very paranoid about broadband communications turning dissent into insurrection, they need control of the narrative.
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Mar 17, 2013 18:14
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Chortles posted:Definitely speaking Mandarin (seems putonghua? I don't have accents down) and he doesn't seem like one of the PRC's ethnic minorities, i.e. someone native to Xinjiang... maybe a war tourist like that one Japanese guy? What about a Chinese Uighur? (Muslim minority in China) I think a few have popped up in other conflicts like Afghanistan in the past. Well I guess the mystery of where the Chinese MANPADs came from has now been solved 
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Mar 17, 2013 18:56
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Charliegrs posted:What about a Chinese Uighur? (Muslim minority in China) I think a few have popped up in other conflicts like Afghanistan in the past. Well I guess the mystery of where the Chinese MANPADs came from has now been solved Uighurs is what he meant by 'someone from Xinjiang'.
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Mar 17, 2013 19:14
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Mokotow posted:I find it very interesting that in all the talk about Damscus heating up, media sort of glosses over Darayya. I don't think there's a more significant place to hold right now in all of Damascus, and despie this, The SAA has been trying to push out the FSA for something like 6 months out of an area that's essentialy four city blocks (edit: that's actually bollocks, it's much larger these days). Very good post, and it's worth noting Darayya is one of the areas in Damascus where the weapons from Croatia have started showing up.
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Mar 17, 2013 20:23
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This piece is worth a read, it's a good explanation why the "Free Syrian Army" doesn't really exist as most people understands.
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Mar 17, 2013 20:40
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Brown Moses posted:Well, this is a first, apparently a Chinese member of a Jihadist group in Syria He is saying that converted to Islam after stumbling onto a book written by a saeed something, went to 'study' in Libya and witnessed the revolution there, and now he's fighting alongside Syrian rebels. He went on to talk about how the deep, traditional friendship between Chinese and Arabic people is being compromised by Chinese government's collusion with the Bashir regime. If Chinese government does not stop assisting the Bashir regime immediately then it will face economic sanctions from all the muslim countries after the revolution is over with. Interesting stuff! This is actually addressed at the Chinese government. Adrastus fucked around with this message at 21:25 on Mar 17, 2013 |
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Mar 17, 2013 21:16
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Sayyid Qutb
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Mar 17, 2013 21:17
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Adrastus posted:He is saying that converted to Islam after stumbling onto a book written by a saeed something, went to 'study' in Libya and witnessed the revolution there, and now he's fighting alongside Syrian rebels. He went on to talk about how the deep, traditional friendship between Chinese and Arabic people is being compromised by Chinese government's collusion with the Bashir regime. If Chinese government does not stop assisting the Bashir regime immediately then it will face economic sanctions from all the muslim countries after the revolution is over with. HA! I would love to see even one country turn down all that sweet, sweet Chinese slave labor trade and take a stand against all the lovely things they do, but it'll never happen. Too big a part of the global economy, and too cheap. Free market at its best. Very interesting opinion from the guy though. Kind of a worrying trend with all these foreign fighters moving in winding up in jihadist groups. Is it that rare to stumble across a group that aren't islamic extremists? 
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Mar 17, 2013 23:27
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Here's a really good Q&A with Angry Arab and Aron Lund about opposition groups in Syria that's really worth a read http://angryarab.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/angry-arab-interviews-aron-lund-on.html
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Mar 17, 2013 23:34
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From another blog entry (a bit below the midway mark) of the Joshua Landis site Brown Moses linked to, a brief bit quoted from the NY Times about the "Martyrs of Yarmouk" capturing those UN peacekeepers:quote:A speaker in the video warns in Arabic: “If the withdrawal does not take place within 24 hours, we will deal with those guys like war prisoners. And praise to God.” (My bolding.) That's quite a euphemism. It sort of highlights what particularly depresses me about civil wars, the casual brutalisation of both sides. It's one thing to fight soldiers on the other side, but this descent into "prisoner = guy we haven't executed yet" is really tragic. Sorry, not a particularly brilliant observation, but I haven't kept in touch with Syria quite as much as I should, and this innocently dropped remark just made me sad.
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Mar 18, 2013 22:34
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THE AWESOME GHOST posted:Yes, it's much more common in Egypt than in any other Arabic speaking country. Male circumcision is very common throughout, but FGM is associated more with Africa and several Muslim scholars (including the Dean of Al Azhar) have come out against it. The very little that I know comes from a 30 minute (1 hour?) show I saw on TV in Australia where they were debating whether or not it should be illegal in Australia, etc. It's a pretty complicated issue but in any case, there are varying levels of FGM, with the lightest being a ritual nick where the emphasis is on the symbolism and the tradition surrounding it, up to the full-on mutilation with the stitching and stuff. I don't know what they practice in Egypt nor am I certain what's considered FGM by the UN Declaration. But, I'd just like to point out that it may not be so bad as it sounds that over "90% have undergone FGM". Maybe.
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Mar 18, 2013 22:51
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totalnewbie posted:The very little that I know comes from a 30 minute (1 hour?) show I saw on TV in Australia where they were debating whether or not it should be illegal in Australia, etc. No. It's just bad.
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Mar 19, 2013 00:31
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But "full-on" FGM with the stitching and all is not the same as a ritualistic nick that heals with no consequences for the person. I'm not defending the practice but I just think it's important for people to realize that there are different types of female circumcision/FGM, although the majority (in total, not in Egypt) is Type I and II, which are still bad in my opinion. Again, I just don't want people to think that over 90% of Egyptian women have their privates sewn up, as I don't think the Egyptian norm is Type III FGM.
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Mar 19, 2013 02:37
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Ham posted:Today, the Egyptian DA gave all citizens the right to act as law enforcement, including the right to arrest "law-breakers". Meaning I can go out now and arrest someone for sitting on my car. Effectively this means sanctioned militias, however. It looks like the vigilantism has started. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21831082 Egyptian Villagers Lynch Two Men posted:Hundreds of villagers in Egypt have lynched two men for allegedly kidnapping two children and other violent crimes. The bodies were then hung by the feet from a lamppost in a car park in the centre of the village. The residents of Mahallat Ziyad in Gharbiya province, north of Cairo, had chased the men through the village. Security officials said some in the crowd tried to help free the two men but were pushed back by others.
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Mar 19, 2013 04:03
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The Syrian army sent planes over the border into Lebanon to attack rebels using Lebanon as a base on Monday. http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Mar-19/210663-syrias-dark-clouds-gathering-over-lebanon.ashx#axzz2NxY37FTP There were no casualties or injuries. BBC article. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21834632
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Mar 19, 2013 06:17
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How much longer can the war in theory go on for? Isn't Aleppo essentially a bunch of rubble at this stage?
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Mar 19, 2013 10:56
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Associated Press is reporting that Syrian state media is reporting rebels are firing chemical weapons into Northern Syria https://twitter.com/AP/status/313950123405234176
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Mar 19, 2013 11:04
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Misandrist Duck posted:Associated Press is reporting that Syrian state media is reporting rebels are firing chemical weapons into Northern Syria Supposedly the area that this alleged attack took place was recently captured by the rebels.
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Mar 19, 2013 12:08
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