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Xandu posted:On Cairo lawlessness Where did this appear originally? Do you have a link back to the article?
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Mar 24, 2013 18:09
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Sorry, it's in The National. https://www.thenational.ae/news/world/middle-east/criminal-gangs-fill-void-left-by-egypts-broken-security-apparatus
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Mar 24, 2013 18:12
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Wow, I had no idea things were THAT bad. Granted, like that officer said, the police can't be expected to step into the middle of that mess and expect to maintain stability, but it's probably a bad reflection of Egypt's economic situation at the moment that there isn't much stopping all that from happening.
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Mar 24, 2013 18:17
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So, not only has Khatib resigned, but the "FSA" has rejected the authority of Ghassan Hitto.Aljazeera posted:
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Mar 24, 2013 18:24
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Pieter posted:Most are women I don't see how that changes the fact that almost all of them look depressed.
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Mar 24, 2013 18:50
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So any truth to the rumor that Assad was shot by a bodyguard? I don't see any major news sites picking it up, so probably false: http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2013/03/breaking-assad-shot-by-iranian-bodyguard-hospitalized-in-damascus/
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Mar 24, 2013 19:37
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mod sassinator posted:So any truth to the rumor that Assad was shot by a bodyguard? I don't see any major news sites picking it up, so probably false: http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2013/03/breaking-assad-shot-by-iranian-bodyguard-hospitalized-in-damascus/ He's been declared dead before. The sources for this story seem to be a few rumours tossed around and nothing at all concrete, I'm very skeptical about it.
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Mar 24, 2013 19:50
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Chamale posted:He's been declared dead before. The sources for this story seem to be a few rumours tossed around and nothing at all concrete, I'm very skeptical about it. Almost every evening for the last two years, the Arab Gulf twitterverse whips itself into a frenzy of circle-tweeting about Bashar's death and/or escape from Syria. In other news, JAN and other islamist groups are being surprisingly competent at running things in Raqqah. Bouti Has been Buried in the grounds of the Ommayad Mosque, next to Saladin's grave. He is the fourth person in history to ever be buried there, or the fifth if you include John the Baptist.
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Mar 24, 2013 20:28
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Nada Bakos, former CIA analyst, posed this question on twitter https://twitter.com/nadabakos/status/315905474111365120 quote:Question: Are there any Syrian opposition groups left that aren't extremists with a salafi agenda? Is there a real opposition to Assad? I wanted to reply with something concrete as I know that there are a lot of non-salafi opposition groups but they tend to be a lot more local. Unfortunately I couldn't find anything listing such groups within this year. The Institute of War had this report from 2011-2012 and I remember there was a primer list of rebel groups done by Foreign Policy a bit ago but I was unable to find it. Are there any recent resources on salafi and non-salafi resistance groups that could be cited? Canadian Surf Club fucked around with this message at 20:31 on Mar 24, 2013 |
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Mar 24, 2013 20:28
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mod sassinator posted:So any truth to the rumor that Assad was shot by a bodyguard? I don't see any major news sites picking it up, so probably false: http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2013/03/breaking-assad-shot-by-iranian-bodyguard-hospitalized-in-damascus/
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Mar 24, 2013 21:11
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CJ Chivers has good Syria article this week. Jammed in Roman Caves, Ducking Syria’s War http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/24/world/middleeast/syrians-fleeing-home-crowd-in-roman-caves.html?ref=cjchivers
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Mar 25, 2013 03:58
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Another report of CW usage in Syria: quote:
The fact that atropine is being described as the treatment gives this a bit more credibility than the other reports, but we'll see how this develops. Given the destroyed state of Syrian public health infrastructure, where could one find atropine unless someone else was providing it?
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Mar 25, 2013 05:06
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Xandu posted:Sorry, it's in The National. There's probably some opportunity here for neighborhood patrols to create their own police forces directly accountable to the people they serve, and rely less on a police force that has justifiably lost all power, respect and credibility.
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Mar 25, 2013 06:14
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suboptimal posted:Another report of CW usage in Syria: Military stocks? Atropine isn't rare.
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Mar 25, 2013 06:47
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Zeroisanumber posted:Military stocks? Atropine isn't rare. Yeah, you're right, and after doing a little research, it seems as though atropine auto injectors have a long shelf life of around five years. Some other tests have shown samples from WWII days retaining an effective level of potency.
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Mar 25, 2013 07:06
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suboptimal posted:Another report of CW usage in Syria: Phosphorous? If that's a chemical weapon then NATO should be indicted for war crimes, because it's used constantly for smoke. I've seen plenty of videos of SAA using smoke to screen their movements in urban areas. The rebels have every motive to fake or lie about chemical attacks and the SAA has every motive not to do to them. Seeing this march to war based on imaginary stuff and false flags is really disheartening. Dejan Bimble fucked around with this message at 08:36 on Mar 25, 2013 |
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Mar 25, 2013 08:24
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WEREWAIF posted:Phosphorous? If that's a chemical weapon then NATO should be indicted for war crimes, because it's used constantly for smoke. I've seen plenty of videos of SAA using smoke to screen their movements in urban areas. The rebels have every motive to fake or lie about chemical attacks and the SAA has every motive not to do to them. From the context it is not very loving hard at all to figure out that the chemical being discussed is an organophosphate poison (could be a pesticide, could be a serious business nerve agent), not white phosphorous, and that Mr. al-Doumani probably just failed to use exactly technically correct terminology while talking to a journalist.
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Mar 25, 2013 08:54
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quote:Arab nations and Turkey, helped by the CIA, have dramatically increased military aid to Syrian rebels in recent months, The New York Times reported on Monday. So it's pretty much the norm now to ship military aid to the rebels. I think what helped in justification and a non-response from the international community was the constant exposure of Iran's military aid and the accompanying atrocities being reported on that could justify really no one giving a poo poo of the Arab peninsula and western interests shipping military aid. On one hand of course the human rights of all people benefit from taking down the Assad regime, but the other end of the stick is where the aid is going. Are the ones we are giving weapons to wanting democracy and equality.. equality and human rights being the aim and war-call of the Arab Spring. I don't think Islam and democracy are mutually exclusive, but humans are innately corruptible and the groups that are gaining ground do not represent the Arab Spring in its ideals. quote:
Republicans continue to give no shits except votes and war-mongering. quote:Nizar al-Heraki, Syria’s opposition ambassador to Qatar, told Al Jazeera that he will be arriving in Doha along with the recently resigned leader of the National Coalition Mouaz al-Khatib from Cairo on Monday evening. Khatib's stepping down may be a method of manipulating the political community into stepping up arms provisions to the rebels. It all seems to be coming together in political maneuvering for arms being supplied to rebels to put the final nails in Assad's coffin. Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 09:39 on Mar 25, 2013 |
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Mar 25, 2013 09:32
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Lascivious Sloth posted:So it's pretty much the norm now to ship military aid to the rebels. I think what helped in justification and a non-response from the international community was the constant exposure of Iran's military aid and the accompanying atrocities being reported on that could justify really no one giving a poo poo of the Arab peninsula and western interests shipping military aid. On one hand of course the human rights of all people benefit from taking down the Assad regime, but the other end of the stick is where the aid is going. Are the ones we are giving weapons to wanting democracy and equality.. equality and human rights being the aim and war-call of the Arab Spring. I don't think Islam and democracy are mutually exclusive, but humans are innately corruptible and the groups that are gaining ground do not represent the Arab Spring in its ideals. Khatib has proven to be a very shrewd and capable leader. He has also garnered much support on the ground, and is respected by a large percentage of the population who see him as honest, credible and representative of their aspirations. He has made himself necessary for any group that wants to claim representation of the Syrian people, and as such can be considered the first person who is capable of unifying the opposition outside of the Muslim Brotherhoods influence which has been the largest hindrance to any serious political front in the revolution. I think his resignation is to test the support he has, both in the FSA and among the population, as well as within the international community. We can already see states trying to keep him in, and judging from the MB response and his apparent attendance of the Qatar conference that will be happening soon, I expect him to be cutting deals with those two on various issues. Tl;dr: Khatib resigned because of two things: the international community's apathy towards the Syria situation and in my opinion to pressure the MB and it's Qatari backers into some sort of deal. What will come out of this is still unclear.
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Mar 25, 2013 13:01
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More on Croatian arms in Syria from the NYT today, detailing more information on the supply lines to the Syrian opposition. The Guardian also has more on that today. [edit] This is the best bit quote:Croatia and Jordan both denied any role in moving arms to the Syrian rebels. Jordanian aviation officials went so far as to insist that no cargo flights occurred. Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 15:04 on Mar 25, 2013 |
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Mar 25, 2013 14:42
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Founding officer of the FSA (one of the first high ranking defectors) lost a leg in what was a bomb or rocket attack on his car on sunday- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21923643WEREWAIF posted:The rebels have every motive to fake or lie about chemical attacks and the SAA has every motive not to do to them. The syrian regime could well use such an attack to justify their own use of serious chemical weapons like VX/Sarin dispersed properly, rather than what appears to be farming/pool cleaning chemicals jury rigged into an attack. DesperateDan fucked around with this message at 15:12 on Mar 25, 2013 |
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Mar 25, 2013 15:09
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Worth noting that Timothy McVeigh blew up the OKC Federal Building with 'just' 'farming chemicals' and diesel.
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Mar 25, 2013 18:21
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Props to brown moses for your research. Syria is heartbreaking and I'd love to see the US government setting up refugee camps to help the people instead of supporting rebel groups that are really not worth a drat, and won't do anything positive for the country if Assad is disposed of. I can't imagine what it would be like to be trapped in the middle of that war, but I'm sure I would be trying to do everything I could to escape. The major powers don't seem interested in helping the people at all. There's only talk of supporting armed groups. They're all incredibly selfish. I know there's a lot going on in the Middle East, and I know this is an I/P free zone, but is it also an Afghanistan free zone? I know from experience that SA is not the place to come to protest America's war policy, and that D&D is basically filled with US government employees, but in celebration of the 10th anniversary of the invasion of Iraq, I was hoping a more respected poster could weigh in on Afghanistan, the prosecution of Bradley Manning, and what lies ahead for the US with respect to our war policy abroad. Are we as Americans going to be promoting a peaceful future or are we going to continue down the path toward permanent militarization and a permanent war economy? AddMEonFacebook fucked around with this message at 18:38 on Mar 25, 2013 |
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Mar 25, 2013 18:32
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I think the people of Syria would disagree vehemently with you about the rebel groups being worth a drat, as evidenced by the mass defections and the whole civil war thing. If Assad wins, there is no hope. No hope for a better future. He will just keep killing and killing and killing, just like he was doing before the people took up arms against him. If Assad wins he will kill everyone who opposed him and his iron fist will come down with renewed vigor and multiplied force. It'll be like Iraq in 1991 all over again. That's why so many Syrians would rather die than live under his regime. EDIT: As far as to respond to your question about American foreign policy, you can expect more diplomacy and multilateralism from the US as has been the case since the Obama administration took office. The horrors of the Iraq War have affected a generation of Americans and you will see a reflective avoidance of war for probably another decade. The US is leaving Afghanistan in 2014, and you can expect the drone campaign to wind down considerably. There will still be covert operations targeting Iran and various little Al-Qaeda affiliated groups in North Africa, but outright war has generally allowed Al-Qaeda to set up permanent bases in the countries we've invaded. Sergg fucked around with this message at 19:05 on Mar 25, 2013 |
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Mar 25, 2013 18:59
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The fact of a civil war is proof in itself that things under a regime are so bad that people would literally prefer to die than live under it. By definition that makes the rebel groups worth a drat, even if the country isn't going to magically become a Western Liberal Democracy overnight.
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Mar 25, 2013 19:05
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The-Mole posted:Worth noting that Timothy McVeigh blew up the OKC Federal Building with 'just' 'farming chemicals' and diesel. We don't know the circumstances yet, but it's quite possible that if whoever launched it had filled it with ANFO rather than Chlorine they would have killed more- The Chlorine attacks during the second Gulf War were largely ineffective.
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Mar 25, 2013 19:31
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The-Mole posted:Worth noting that Timothy McVeigh blew up the OKC Federal Building with 'just' 'farming chemicals' and diesel. Which made explosives, not chemical weapons.
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Mar 25, 2013 19:41
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Muscle Tracer posted:Which made explosives, not chemical weapons. Outside of the political ramifications chemical weapons aren't that much magically worse than chemical explosives.
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Mar 25, 2013 20:08
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Brown Moses, a question: Is there any concern that perhaps by exposing covert international support for the Syrian opposition vis-a-vis weaponry, the supportive nations might suddenly halt munitions deliveries? I'm not well-read or well-versed on the Middle East, both its conflicts and other history, but that bit you posted concerning the Jordanian Air Cargo fiasco naturally leads me to wonder if future potential allies of the rebellion might not want to risk being seen as meddling in another country's affairs.
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Mar 25, 2013 20:28
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C2C - 2.0 posted:Brown Moses, a question: I'd say the fact that these weapons are turning up in the hands of groups like Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusra should play a big part in that kind of decision making, and if it wasn't for the original work identifying the smuggled Croatia weapons it wouldn't now be apparent that they are ending up in the wrong hands.
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Mar 25, 2013 20:30
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Is it your determination that these deliveries are purposely ending up in the hands of the more extremist resistance groups? I know the evidence is scant and it's hard to form concrete assertions, but I'm trying to read between the lines a bit. In other words, I've still got a fairly hefty amount of reading on the subject to digest, but are any of the local resistance groups being filmed with what appear to be foreign weapons?
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Mar 25, 2013 20:38
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C2C - 2.0 posted:Is it your determination that these deliveries are purposely ending up in the hands of the more extremist resistance groups? I know the evidence is scant and it's hard to form concrete assertions, but I'm trying to read between the lines a bit. Is that a fair analysis?
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Mar 25, 2013 20:51
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Generally and within reason, countries will want weapons to go to the best fighters. Yes in certain circumstances that can change, like Saudi Arabia funding not very competent wahhabists in 1980s Afghanistan, and the US probably doesn't want to fund groups that will use those weapons to attack its interests, but I'm not convinced ideological purity is demanded in most cases.
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Mar 25, 2013 20:53
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I'm sure BM and others could weigh in, but that sounds plausible. I'm not on the up-and-up as far as international arms shipments are concerned, but I broadly figured they fell into 3 categories: legal, extra-legal, and illegal. I just did't know what these shipments into Syria were being classified as. I understand, basically, that the U.S. and others are talking with the U.N. to adapt the embargo situation such that rebels could receive armament legally, but I guess that's still up in the air.
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Mar 25, 2013 20:56
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The intention with the Croatian weapons was they were to be supplied to members of the "official" Free Syrian Army, but what has happened is these weapons have now ended up in the hands of Salafist and Jihadist groups outside of the FSA. It's likely this is a result of the close working relationship between the FSA and these groups, and is an indication of what will happen to weapons provided to the FSA if the transfers are done above aboard. My conclusion is that if you are arming the FSA you'll end up arming the Jihadists too.
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Mar 25, 2013 21:03
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Xandu posted:Generally and within reason, countries will want weapons to go to the best fighters. Yes in certain circumstances that can change, like Saudi Arabia funding not very competent wahhabists in 1980s Afghanistan, and the US probably doesn't want to fund groups that will use those weapons to attack its interests, but I'm not convinced ideological purity is demanded in most cases. Since most people seem to expect Syria to turn to or continue in an intra-factional civil conflict even after Assad is deposed, I think the U.S. and EU have a strong interest in having arms go to the most secular groups. I don't know what they're actually doing, but I can't imagine they're happy with weapons going to radicals.
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Mar 25, 2013 21:04
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Best Friends posted:Since most people seem to expect Syria to turn to or continue in an intra-factional civil conflict even after Assad is deposed, I think the U.S. and EU have a strong interest in having arms go to the most secular groups. I don't know what they're actually doing, but I can't imagine they're happy with weapons going to radicals. Yeah I'm not sure what to take from the tone of this one: http://www.voanews.com/content/syria-rebels-weapons/1628351.html They even pass on the reports of CIA involvement but there really just don't seem to be any answers. And you're everywhere now, BM. Wow.
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Mar 25, 2013 21:10
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McDowell posted:Yeah I'm not sure what to take from the tone of this one: I think I'm lucky that my sudden internet superstar status has also co-incided with the new NYT report of weapons smuggling and I've been posting about those same weapons getting into the hands of Jihadists. I had Channel 4 News doing a two hour interview at my home today, and it sounds like it'll be a big piece, so I expect even more interview requests when that's broadcast, and I've still got the CNN interview to come (plus others). I'm pretty much using all the media exposure as an elaborate CV in the hopes of finding a job.
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Mar 25, 2013 21:18
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It would seem that if the current regime undergoes much more destabilization AND the FSA can gain more solid ground within Syria, then a better scenario for the West might be to continue providing humanitarian aid to the FSA versus weapons. But, I think all of the talk lately about the arms shipments combined with the increasing dialogue with the U.N. on loosening embargo restrictions, we're reaching a tipping point between pro-FSA countries remaining in the shadows or these same countries providing some sort of logistical support that's transparent to all. In another thread somewhere, someone posted an item about a U.S. congressman suggesting imposing a no-fly zone over Syria. While that possibility has it's own implications and potential headaches, could the neutering of the Syrian regime's air power be the very thing that would swing things into the FSA's favor? EDIT: In the above article, the line "According to the experts" is a mean slap-in-the-face to Brown Moses' impending stint on the "foreign affairs correspondent" circuit. They should've sourced you, my friend.
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Mar 25, 2013 21:19
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I really don't think the Syrian governments air power is that significant now the opposition has so many AA weapons. The pilots have been forced to fly higher, and their unguided bombs and missiles often miss the intended target, and this has allowed the opposition fights to safely deploy heavy artillery and tanks. Really a no-fly zone would just be an excuse to attack the Syrian army on the ground, like we saw in Libya, and I'm sure that would move things a lot more quickly. Problem is then we're likely to see areas controlled by different groups with different agendas, and those groups competiting for control.C2C - 2.0 posted:EDIT: In the above article, the line "According to the experts" is a mean slap-in-the-face to Brown Moses' impending stint on the "foreign affairs correspondent" circuit. They should've sourced you, my friend.
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Mar 25, 2013 21:23
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