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Not sure I like leading turn again. Yes, sometimes he gets to check back random draws like 89s that gets there, but more often he's probably firing again, especially if he has any random spazzy air. I prefer mooses ch/c ch/c line. Dislike river ch/r immensely.
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Mar 31, 2013 23:55
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$2/$5 Live NLHE. Villain is a very good regular with whom I've had a lot of history. He plays a very good LAG game with raises postflop and 3-bets preflop. He probably sees me as a solid LAG player but he probably still thinks he has an edge on me (which I'd probably agree with). Button is a bad loose passive like most players but no reads other than that. Effective stacks are ~$1500 so we are deep. There are also a lot of other big stacks at the table. Folds to me in EP. I have 66 and raise to $20. Villain in MP calls $20. Button calls $20. Everyone else folds. Flop ($60): AQ8r I bet $45. Villain calls $45. Button folds. Turn ($150): 6 (rainbow board now) I check. Villain bets $110. I call $110. River ($370): Q I check. Villain bets $275. I raise to $675. Villain tanks and folds. I think opening with 66 is standard here. I'm set mining if it goes more than 3 ways to the flop most likely, but I'd rather open than limp so my range is wider and because I am setting my own price. I decide to c-bet this flop as a bluff because while I have some showdown value I'm never getting there cheaply. When Villain calls here I think his range is heavily weighted towards an ace or queen, he raises flop with AQ, A8s, or 88 here almost always, and he 3-bets pre with AA and QQ here. I also think he might raise with his gutshots here some of the time too, but I won't discount them from his range especially if he has a 3-flush to go with his gutshot. I decide to c/c turn because if he has an ace, I think he's betting a large percentage of the time and if he has a queen, he probably folds to a turn bet but might call a river bet. When I check I think he's putting me on a hand like TT that is just giving up, a weak ace that wants to pot control, or maybe a hand like KK, KQ or QJ though I think he thinks I might c/c the flop with a hand like that. Also I think he is betting his gutshots here with the intention of betting certain river cards too. I thought about leading river because Ax is a huge part of his range here and most Ax is checking back here unless it's like AJ or AK, maybe he thin value bets AT. I also don't think he has very many Qx in his range after he bets turn. But I also thought that he very rarely just gives up on a bluff so I would give him one more chance to bluff at it. Is the raise size okay on the river? Mind_Taker fucked around with this message at 16:45 on Apr 2, 2013 |
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Apr 2, 2013 16:42
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Mind_Taker posted:I check. Villain bets $110. I call $110. You did it. you set the trap. you checked the turn after you binked the nuts and got him to bet a bunch. and then you flatted. You missed out on a toooon of value here.
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Apr 2, 2013 17:57
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What's he calling a c/r with on the turn that doesn't raise flop?
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Apr 2, 2013 18:24
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Mind_Taker posted:What's he calling a c/r with there that doesn't raise flop? AT? AJ? AQ that flatted? KQ that doesnt believe? what calls a river ch/r that doesn't call a turn ch/r and prob a river bet too?
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Apr 2, 2013 18:26
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I really doubt he's calling a turn c/r with any one pair hands and I really think he is raising AQ on the flop based on my reads. c/r on that perceived blank turn is an incredibly strong line and even AK I think is folding there a decent % of the time because he is going to (in all probability) be facing another bet on the river that he will have to call. That and he could just have some gutters that could bluff river as well that would probably fold to a turn c/r. c/r on the river is strong for sure, but he knows that he won't be facing another bet so if he doesn't believe me and he has Ax at least he knows he won't be facing another bet and can look me up. And if he does have Qx (which I don't think he has a large % of the time but he could have bet turn with it), he's definitely calling a river c/r that would have otherwise folded to a turn c/r most of the time. Mind_Taker fucked around with this message at 18:39 on Apr 2, 2013 |
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Apr 2, 2013 18:36
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Mind_Taker posted:I really doubt he's calling a turn c/r with any one pair hands and I really think he is raising AQ on the flop based on my reads. c/r on that perceived blank turn is an incredibly strong line and even AK I think is folding there a decent % of the time because he is going to (in all probability) be facing another bet on the river that he will have to call. That and he could just have some gutters that could bluff river as well that would probably fold to a turn c/r. First of all if ch/r turn is so strong I hope you are doing it as a bluff super often (btw it's not that strong to most people especially live). He's most likely not considering all these specific future street ideas that you have about yourself like facing another bet on the river. Maybe he wants to just call down twice. There's a pretty small amount of gutshots for him to be betting and its pretty unlikely that he bets twice after we ch/c turn, especially on this river. I don't think "he doesnt have to call any more bets, so he can just call it off without thinking about anything else" is a good line of thought on the river. We rep so insanely strong by ch/c turn and ch/r river. We can't ever be bluffing. Like seriously never ever. And him calling with a Q on turn on the one river card where it matters is pretty inconsequential. e: "what calls a river ch/r that doesn't call a turn ch/r and prob a river bet too?" is the most important question to ask
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Apr 2, 2013 19:14
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I see where you're coming from and your question is very valid. After thinking about it more a turn c/r seems better but I don't think c/c is horrible. I really don't see him giving up on his bluffs often on the river, which was my thought process at the time. I've seen his bluffs called before but I've never once seen him check back river in position with a whiffed draw with no showdown value. Hands like KJs, KTs, JTs, J9s, and T9s are all very valid hands for him to have here. My hand looks something relatively mediocre like KK, JJ, TT, etc. Those are all hands that he can get me to fold by the river after I check turn because my hand is incredibly underrepped. Do you agree with the turn check or is b/b/b a better line here? I find it hard for AJ to call 3 barrels here unimproved on the turn or river.
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Apr 2, 2013 19:27
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in the A2o hand unless i'm reading the HH wrong we have bottom pair and no draw and we're first to act in a pot with 4 other people? why are we leading the flop? why are we happy here? online i fold A2o in SB live maybe i complete it could be a mistake tho if the stacks aren't deep enough. we're playing a big bet game immediate pot odds don't matter so much. our hand is just garbage. i like a squeeze play more than a complete. we will basically never flop the nuts, our hand has very little postflop playability, we'll be OOP, etc. Dr. Eat fucked around with this message at 17:43 on Apr 3, 2013 |
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Apr 3, 2013 17:40
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Hey guys, I'm fairly new to playing poker seriously, but have played with friends for a while. I was in a local mtt last night, 40 entrants, with 13 players remaining over two tables. Average stack was 28000 and I had around 33000. The villain in this has about 29000. Blinds are 1000-2000 Hole cards: J  9 I'm at the CO and the player in front of me, the villain, calls, all other players fold. I decide to also call, my thinking being that he'd been playing a lot of marginal or even totally bum hands and at this point play was becoming quite loose. I could always fold if nothing hit. Probably a bad move in retrospect but as I said this was an aggressive guy, and I had position, and the antes were 200 at this point so there was already 4800, 6800 after this caller, in the pot. All other players fold. FLOP: j  108 Not a bad flop for me at all I was thinking, I had a straight draw and high pair. The villain hadn't raised pre flop so I discounted him having a high pocket. However, at this point he went all in. Ouch. Now, if I won this hand then I'd be the chip lead for the whole tournament and have a good chance of taking home the goods. If not, I'd be crippled. In the end I called it, taking into account a number of factors: - villain had only called pre flop, so I doubted he had high pockets, or any pockets at all at this point in the tournament. - he was quite a loose player, who would play extremely marginal hands - I'd be in a great position to win the tournament if I won this hand. - I had eight outs to give me a hand almost certain to win, plus the outs from possible but unlikely trips. We turn our cards over and he has two pair, jacks and tens. I'd totally not do considered two pair at all, a bad error on my part, and thought he most likely had a jack and something lower, or a ten with a high kicker. The straight doesn't come out. What I want to know is if this was just an iffy play, or a terrible one? I'd been playing tag all night and it'd been working well,with the odd pot steal on marginal hands, but this seems like a glaring error looking back.
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Apr 4, 2013 11:56
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Just fold pre, flat calling is the worst option there. The thought process "this guy has been playing a lot of hands/running me over, I'll just sneakily flat call with any two cards to punish him and if I dont hit the flop ill just fold" is the fish mindset that makes poker profitable for good players. You don't punish players for playing junk hands by just calling behind them with another garbage hand like J9o. Villain most likely isnt good but you make him look like a genius by flat calling with an easily dominated hand hoping to play fit or fold. Also how did it happen that you guys were HU, the SB didnt complete and then the BB folded pre? Youre playing <15BB poker, you don't have enough chips to outplay anyone post flop. Low connectors, one gappers, suited cards, etc all lose a ton of value at that stage in the tournament. With those hands youre investing too much into the pot just hoping to flop gold and the majority of the time getting yourself into crappy situations like the one you were in. Look for cards that youre comfortable raising with to take down the blinds/antes, and fold garbage hands. There are times when limping is ok but not when you have effectively 15BB. When the pot is like 9k and Villain only has 27k behind and is a wild bad player you can expect him to be shoving all kinds of flops that he connected with in any way. He shoves any 9, any J, maybe any 10 or whatever garbage hes hoping to push you off the pot with. The flop is basically gin for J9o (not saying a lot) so I guess youre going for it but its a silly situation to get in in the first place As for whether its iffy or terrible, calling the shove is iffy/fine, pre flop play is terrible. Everyone describes their style as TAG but limping with a crap hand is like the opposite of tag. Just wait for a better spot
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Apr 4, 2013 16:49
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Just for fun check out this video by resident millionaire poker goon jcarver (and the rest of his videos i guess if you havent watched them) of the final table of last weeks sunday million, its about 20BB deep and even though the video is only 5-handed you can get an idea of how people adjust their ranges for short stacked later tournament play https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twVF1pPD54U
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Apr 4, 2013 17:03
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I was watching a DC cracked video where blah123 talks about 5-bet folding 100 bbs deep against light 4-betters. Am I wrong for thinking this is pretty exploitable by just jamming any reggy looking people that do it? Decided to find out and tried it a bunch. http://weaktight.com/5681592 This was a pretty bad spot to do it because it was a "I haven't 4 bet" in a while so I should 4 bet, instead of I have a hand slightly to weak to do anything other then bluff or with any kind of blockers. Shouldn't ever be 4-betting here, having said that I still wanted to try jamming over the min 5-bet when it happened. (this is pretty bad too what with how lovely our equity is vs his calling range, really really wish I did this with an ace) Better spots. http://wt.ag/Z4lOYb http://wt.ag/Z4lA3l http://weaktight.com/5681652 I jammed in all hands, I think the first one was spew. The other 3 could be but I'm not sure. I also didn't have any history of these guys 5-bet/folding. I was just working off the assumption that they are regs, they know I 4-bet a ton, the only reason they would min-bet is to try and induce a call or to balance as they are sometimes doing it as bluffs. And if its the latter, then I have fold equity, and I don't need much fold equity at all to make jamming + E.V at all. So, solid or spew?
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Apr 4, 2013 17:57
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i haven't seen the vids but i think doing this at nl25 is just really spewey and even if it is +EV (not sure it is) it will increase your variance a ton. you also need to have a lot of hands on your opponents to do it/a dynamic. stars player pool is so big this won't happen so you're better off just exploiting other preflop edges and outplaying postflop. also edges in preflop aren't that huge so i just wouldn't be trying to make money n-bet bluffing at micros. the KQ hand is kinda standard preflop bluff BvB vs another reg cept that it's a 6bet heh. you have two blockers and decent equity if you get called by a pair. but i mean we can't really comment on any of them without stats on villain (stea/3b/4b/fold 2 4bet). also reads on what kinds of hands villains are getting in pre or if they have any betsizing or timing tells.
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Apr 4, 2013 19:08
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Yeah I was told a similar thing about 5-bet bluffing from a very wise man that I sometimes pay money to talk to me. His comments were its high variance and marginal at best, and is totally unnecessary at this level. But then I see these people start min 5-betting and adding a ton of dead money to pot, and my thinking was well if 5-bet shoving 100 bbs is marginal over a 4-bet. 6-bet has gotta be pretty amazing over a 5-bet with all the extra dead money and risking pretty much the same. Either way I've never used one of these calculators and I suck at math. Did I do this right? When it says he needs to fold 42% of the time, is that just to make the bet break even in a vacuum or is it taking into account that 0 EV is much better then just losing the 17bbs invested?  Here is the link to the calculator. http://www.fpppro.com/fold-equity-calculator.php TheAbortionator fucked around with this message at 20:52 on Apr 4, 2013 |
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Apr 4, 2013 20:48
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no need to level yourself just play solid poker. don't have to take every edge.
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Apr 5, 2013 01:57
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I have had moderate success when 4 bet raising preflop vs. 4 bet shipping when I've got the goods. People love to out level themselves against the 4 bet for some reason and put in a 5 bet. This was against pros though so 4 bet raising/shipping against rec players is still seen as super duper strong.
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Apr 5, 2013 02:06
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Are these hands zoom? People do seem to have slightly tighter ranges in these BvB spots in zoom. In none of the hands are you just straight bluffing from the sb, whereas at a regular table you're going to have K3s sometimes. But I'm not sure how much that consideration is effecting the BBs ranges at 25nl. You're likely just going to need a lot of hands so you know how often they're 3betting vs sb steal. Some of the regs don't care much about battling for the blinds and also figure that if sb had nothing (K3s, etc) he would've just quick folded a bunch of the time. Therefore, it's less valuable to 3b light. And then you're going to find people that are 3betting vs sb steal way too much. Until you get a huge amount of hands you're not going to know how often these guys are 5 betting in these spots but I guess if they're 3betting that wide they're going to have to be 5bet bluffing some. Basically I don't see how it could be bad to play the hands the way you did vs these guys. The way you play the KQ/AT hands are clearly about it being bad to call 3bets oop. I wonder if it could ever work to just call their 3bets oop with ATs type hands if it was less you had to call in the first place. You raise to 2bb (instead of your 2.2bb) they 3bet to 7bb or 8bb. I wonder if you can just call that sometimes and then c/r all backdoor str, fds, gutshots ect. You probably have to be able to pretty confidently call down on a lot of boards when you flop a pair. I probably hate this but I just wanna consider it.
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Apr 6, 2013 18:03
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Fold. You could justify jamming pre as well, especially if you think he is limping with a wide range in this spot. But do not call. I will add that bad small stakes MTT players like to be cute and do stuff like limp only their good hands before a final table sometimes. (They would be better off keeping a balanced range, though)
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Apr 6, 2013 21:54
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olin posted:The way you play the KQ/AT hands are clearly about it being bad to call 3bets oop. I wonder if it could ever work to just call their 3bets oop with ATs type hands if it was less you had to call in the first place. You raise to 2bb (instead of your 2.2bb) they 3bet to 7bb or 8bb. I wonder if you can just call that sometimes and then c/r all backdoor str, fds, gutshots ect. You probably have to be able to pretty confidently call down on a lot of boards when you flop a pair. I probably hate this but I just wanna consider it. I much prefer flatting 3bets with KQ/AT oop vs TAGfish opponents then 4betting them, as most TAGfish know to 3bet polarized in position, so they are more likely to have a hand like K4s or A5o, and you are going to stack them on K/A high boards because they won't believe you flatted any K/A out of position. But they have to be 3betting polarized for this to be good.
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Apr 10, 2013 01:13
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Live $2/$5. Effective stacks are $1000, game is 6-handed. Villain is a good loose aggressive regular who likes to play pots in position even with marginal holdings. I have T 7 and open to $20 on the HJ. Villain calls on the button. BB calls.Flop ($60 after rake): J 95BB checks, I bet $45, Villain calls, BB folds. Turn ($150): K I bet $95, Villain raises to $260, I...? I'm never folding to this raise, but should I raise or call here? I have to call $165 with a pot that is $340 so I'm getting close enough pot odds to call against a reasonable raising range for villain with my double gutter and flush draw, especially when you factor in implied odds too. Probably not great implied odds because he's a good opponent but enough to make a call +EV. I didn't think he repped too much air with his line so I ended up flatting.
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Apr 17, 2013 15:10
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Mind_Taker posted:Live $2/$5. Effective stacks are $1000, game is 6-handed. Villain is a good loose aggressive regular who likes to play pots in position even with marginal holdings. I wouldn't open 7Ts here, and I'd be looking for a table/seat change without a good reason. Villians raising range is KJ/K9 and flush draws/straight draws that floated the flop. What is heroes image here? I think flatting is good as the K is a good card for villians range and the only real reason I can see to jam is if he'll float flop to raise turn with a flush draw, which seems unlikely.
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Apr 17, 2013 21:50
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I'm cool with flatting here.
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Apr 18, 2013 08:57
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Was this a stupid call? Villain just sat down, so no read. Merge - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 4 SB: 130.6 BB (VPIP: 29.86, PFR: 20.83, 3Bet Preflop: 6.78, Hands: 146) BB: 133.3 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15) UTG: 101 BB (VPIP: 24.34, PFR: 21.71, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 157) MP: 112.9 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 13.80, 3Bet Preflop: 2.96, Hands: 362) Hero (CO): 135.2 BB BTN: 203.8 BB (VPIP: 22.88, PFR: 19.92, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 240) SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K fold, fold, [color=red]Hero raises to 3 BB[/color], fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 3 7 2 BB checks, [color=red]Hero bets 4 BB[/color], BB calls 4 BB Turn: (14.5 BB, 2 players) 7 [color=red]BB bets 4 BB[/color], [color=red]Hero raises to 20 BB[/color], [color=red]BB raises to 36 BB[/color], Hero calls 16 BB River: (86.5 BB, 2 players) T [color=red]BB bets 90.3 BB and is all-in[/color], Hero calls 90.3 BB Hero shows K K (Two Pair, Kings and Sevens) (Pre 94%, Flop 98%, Turn 100%)BB shows K 6 (One Pair, Sevens) (Pre 6%, Flop 2%, Turn 0%)Hero wins 253.8 BB Villain plays lots of random cards, very rarely raises preflop. Merge - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 4 BTN: 110 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 13.80, 3Bet Preflop: 2.96, Hands: 362) SB: 98 BB (VPIP: 19.23, PFR: 9.62, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 52) Hero (BB): 111 BB UTG: 127.1 BB (VPIP: 24.29, PFR: 15.83, 3Bet Preflop: 6.52, Hands: 146) MP: 105.8 BB (VPIP: 24.34, PFR: 21.71, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 157) CO: 55.7 BB (VPIP: 28.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26) SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q A fold, [color=red]MP raises to 3 BB[/color], fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, Hero calls 2 BB Flop: (9 BB, 3 players) A 5 3 SB checks, Hero checks, [color=red]MP bets 5 BB[/color], [color=red]SB raises to 11 BB[/color], Hero calls 11 BB, fold Should I raise here? I really doubt he has an ace or he would have led out. Maybe two pair or trips? Turn: (36 BB, 2 players) 8 SB checks, [color=red]Hero bets 12 BB[/color], [color=red]SB raises to 29 BB[/color], Hero calls 17 BB Ok a double check/raise, now I'm loving confused. After he checks I put him on a failed steal, so I bet out. He raises, which makes no sense. River: (94 BB, 2 players) J [color=red]SB bets 55 BB and is all-in[/color], Hero calls 55 BB Hero shows Q:spade: A:club: (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 44%, Flop 90%, Turn 0%) SB shows 8 8 (Three of a Kind, Eights) (Pre 56%, Flop 10%, Turn 100%)SB wins 193.8 BB Definitely a bad river call, but I'd like to see how y'all would have approached the hand.
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Apr 21, 2013 03:01
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Hand 1 - Small sample size, but; would you call turn reraise or river if villain's stats were more defined like SB? UTG? MP? BTN? I guess you don't always need a big sample size if you can tell villain just wants to lose money though. Hand 2 - You must bet flop. It's 10 NL.
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Apr 21, 2013 08:19
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Peter North posted:Hand 1 - Small sample size, but; would you call turn reraise or river if villain's stats were more defined like SB? UTG? MP? BTN? I guess you don't always need a big sample size if you can tell villain just wants to lose money though. hand 2 he's not PFR so he must not do anything. When PFR bets and then SB minraises though it sucks for us. I probably call anyway but only because he can spazz out with AJ or AT as often as he has A5 A3 55 33 "Should I raise here? I really doubt he has an ace or he would have led out. Maybe two pair or trips?" this just isn't true. there's no reason for villain to lead if he flops an ace. "Ok a double check/raise, now I'm loving confused. After he checks I put him on a failed steal, so I bet out. He raises, which makes no sense." Failed steal doesn't make any sense. Certainly possible he is just randomly spazzing out with air on flop but not too likely. Also technically "stealing" is opening btn or co when folded to. But if he is on a failed bluff as you say we should just check behind turn and call all rivers because how is he going to call our bet with anything? Once he ch/r again I'm giving him a pretty large amount of credit. Def folding on river. Maybe not on turn. Prob should.
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Apr 21, 2013 14:34
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Peter North posted:Hand 1 - Small sample size, but; would you call turn reraise or river if villain's stats were more defined like SB? UTG? MP? BTN? I guess you don't always need a big sample size if you can tell villain just wants to lose money though. Hand 1: It would depend on what came on the river. As played, his line didn't really make sense. I'll give him a pretty wide range (excluding QQ+) for calling 3x pre flop in the BB. But why call the flop, then raise the turn? 23 is counterfeited by pocket pairs (in addition to being a terrible PF call) and I'd expect the normal player to raise on the flop -- if only minraise to build the pot. The only hand that I saw beating me on the river was 10s that hit a lucky river after a bluff. Villain left after that hand, so I couldn't tell you what his stats were. Hand 2: I wasn't PFR. I didn't think 3 betting made a lot of sense and should just folded on the river. At least at NL10, you see a lot of people cbet or raise to bluff, then check the turn if anyone calls. You can bet the turn and take the pot 85%+. Not a good move at higher stakes, but at least at this level of play it seems to be a successful strategy.
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Apr 21, 2013 21:31
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MY INEVITABLE DEBT posted:hand 2 he's not PFR so he must not do anything. When PFR bets and then SB minraises though it sucks for us. I probably call anyway but only because he can spazz out with AJ or AT as often as he has A5 A3 55 33 Ah. I didn't read that one too carefully first. I basically agree, I still maintain that donking flop with presumably top pair good kicker will save trouble with the Ax, 2 pair, setmining portion of both villains ranges at this level. You might lose some value when you have the best hand though. As played, turn could be folded, fold river "Should I raise here? I really doubt he has an ace or he would have led out. Maybe two pair or trips?" - SB checks flop alot more than hero thinks if he flops something decent because he's oop, also if he has trips it's a set technically. "Ok a double check/raise, now I'm loving confused. After he checks I put him on a failed steal, so I bet out. He raises, which makes no sense." - Actually it makes sense. He's not raising a failed bluff or a busted straight draw here again unless you have some sick read on him being either really bad or really really good. But it's 10 NL. Go for value, and play big pots with more equity.
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Apr 22, 2013 00:02
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Live $2/$5. Villain is a good LAG player and good handreader who tends to raise big draws. The dynamic is weird because there are two whales in the game, each sitting with a full $1000 stack. Effective stacks between me and Villain are ~$1800. I'm UTG with TT and I raise to $30. Villain calls in MP, one whale calls on the button, everyone else folds. Normally I'd make it $20 here but the whales were willing to call more pre so I bumped it up to $30. Flop comes 9 63 (Pot: $90)I bet $65. Villain calls, whale folds. Turn: 8 (Pot: $210)I check, Villain bets $125. I call $125. River: T (Pot: $460)I check. Villain checks. Questions: 1. Is it wrong to check/call the turn, and then value bet most rivers if turn is checked back? His range on the flop is probably 9x, 6x, 54s, 87s, 75s, and 22, 44, 55, 66, 77. I think he's raising some diamond draws and calling some. The 8 isn't a bad card for me on the turn, but it isn't fantastic either because some suited connector type hands got there against me, and some hands can now bluff/semibluff against me (e.g. 67, 87). I didn't want to open myself up to a raise on the turn with an already pretty big pot. 2. As played, should I have led this river? He should know I don't have too many 7s in my range so he might look me up light if he thinks I'm FOS here and I think I made a mistake by checking.
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Apr 29, 2013 05:31
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Mind_Taker posted:
If you think he's raising turn with all those hands you should be happy to bet/call or bet/call vs a likely pair + fd or pair + sd. Also the pot is 40bb on turn it's not that big. Also i think if you enumerate the 9s and 6s he actually has the correct line becomes much clearer. Calling your open with fish behind can be as bad as 64s i think but even if he's tighter a lot of his range is made up by A9s T9s 98s 97s 56s 67s A6s. So like I said if he's semibluffing that much I don't have any problem bet/calling vs his weak range. I think checking is ok if turn is like a J or a Q but this turn gives us equity vs anything beating us and gives several of his hands equity that he will want to call with and I don't think people semibluff this turn very widely because they rep nothing so I'd much rather just bet. And then probably bet small on most rivers but I think I'd ch/c this one in that scenario. As played I don't like leading river because of what our hand looks like. We cant ever have a 7 (maybe 77) so if he's actually good he can abuse the poo poo out of us by raising because he can have lots of 7s. Plus he should be turning a ton of hands into bluffs on this river for basically the same reason. It's supposed to be a great river for his range. 56 and diamonds and whatever have to just stick a bet in most of the time.
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Apr 29, 2013 15:55
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4 hands left out of 9 in a local single table pub tournament. Villain has quite a large shove range. Stacks (approx): Hero(SB): 20BB Villain(BB):21BB UTG: 15BB Button: 5BB My cards: 44o UTG and Button fold. I raise to 4BB. Villain shoves. Should I be calling this? One of my main problems is that I'm not sure how to play when it gets down to a low number of players. It's a generally loose table, and villain is loose too. I called, he showed 77o, they stood and I bubbled
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May 2, 2013 23:29
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Jakabite posted:4 hands left out of 9 in a local single table pub tournament. Villain has quite a large shove range. Well the math will depend on how the payouts were done, but on the bubble this just has to be a fold. You can play around with an icm calculator to check out the math in different situations; there was a much better icm calculator/applicator somewhere, but I haven't really used it in a while - this one is limited in what it can calculate but this link approximates your situation - if he was the SB, you the BB and he open shoves 100% of his range this is a fold. This isn't your situation since you have some money in the pot and are therefore getting better odds but you should still be folding even if you know he shoves any two. If he's shoving a more realistic 30-50% of hands then you should be folding almost everything except like 99+ AQ, sometimes tighter. On a related note I'm pretty sure you are absolutely burning money by 4xing it pre here - if your opponent is particularly aggressive it is probably just an open fold, but if you are raising then it shouldn't be more than 3x; Your opponent is unlikely to be folding many more hands to a 4x than a 3x and when he doesn't just fold pre you are usually losing the pot.
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May 3, 2013 01:47
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Live $2/$5. Effective stacks are ~$1000. Unknown villain but he bought in for full which either means he's probably not a nit. Villain is UTG+1. UTG limps, Villain limps, I have A A and raise to $30. Button calls, BB calls, UTG calls, Villain calls, everyone else folds.Flop (~$150): J 32Checks to me, I bet $110. Villain calls, everyone else folds. Turn: (~$370): 3 Villain checks, I bet $200. Villain snap shoves for like $660 more. Pot is now $1430. A range for a competent villain is 22-33, J X, 45 (though this should raise flop), 45, maybe A3o (can't be suited since I have both black aces) or X3s since it's live poker. And I guess he could have limp-called JJ+ since there are tons of dumb people.Our card room allows players to run it twice if the pot is over $1000 so I took this into consideration weighing if he had enough semibluffs in his range here to make it a call or a fold. I eventually just ended up folding after about 2 minutes or so and he didn't show. My thoughts were: -It seems like such a terrible card to bluff at because it completed exactly 0 draws and added 1 more draw -I had both blockers to A3s -33 is now very unlikely -He snap-shoved which sometimes means a draw (but not always) -Live players rarely make big bluffs The bolded statement weighed most heavily when I decided to fold. Is this a call or a fold?
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May 20, 2013 16:42
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Mind_Taker posted:-Live players rarely make big bluffs You're thinking about so much of the wrong stuff especially the bolded statement. There's no reason to think this random guy isn't going to bluff and you dont know how he values his hands. You just have to call. There's way too many hands he can have. AJ maybe even KJ J9hh+ 45hh A5hh A4hh and then 22 A3o 34dd 34ss maybe 35s and then you're getting a pretty good price like 2.3 to 1? im sure you have 30% equity on the turn vs that range. Also aren't you young? Or young looking? Live players always spew to young people in spots like this with top pair. I really wouldn't be surprised to see JT or something insane. Anyway just caw good for him if he called flop with a 3 and got there e: in a bad situation for us Hand 0: 61.577% 61.58% 00.00% 2601 0.00 { 22, AJs, 53s, 43s, AJo, A3o } Hand 1: 38.423% 38.42% 00.00% 1623 0.00 { AA } MY INEVITABLE DEBT fucked around with this message at 17:09 on May 20, 2013 |
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May 20, 2013 17:03
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I think he could have limped with any suited 3 and called a raise because he was closing the action, so that makes our situation worse. I guess this ends up being a more general "how do you construct a range for an unknown ~25 year old male who isn't wearing sunglasses and doesn't look like a hotshot internet player and bought in for full?" Because if this unknown guy was 80 years old this is probably a fold, or if it was an unknown woman then this is probably a fold, or if it was a really passive younger guy this is probably a fold. Do you weigh semi-bluffs equal to value hands here? Because I sure don't, not given my experience at $2/$5 live. I think every 3 is raising here like 90+% of the time, but I don't see 4 5 raising here nearly that frequently from an unknown. I don't think we can say "given that he shoved, 54 is equally likely as 43" until the villain shows me otherwise. And I think each combination of AJ is even less likely than a single combo draw hand.So when I stoved it I took out many combinations of AJ and omitted some semibluff hands to get a range and frequency I thought was good. It ended up being around 30% which makes it a fold but barely (I need 31.6% to call). Out of curiosity moose, where and what stakes do you usually play? Mind_Taker fucked around with this message at 19:22 on May 20, 2013 |
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May 20, 2013 19:20
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Mind_Taker posted:I think he could have limped with any suited 3 and called a raise because he was closing the action, so that makes our situation worse. I dont know why you think he's so unlikely to shove AJ on such a drawy board. I play 2/5 in south florida
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May 20, 2013 20:10
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My personal range for shoving that turn is pretty wide.
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May 20, 2013 20:17
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Thanks for the critique Moose. Not believing people when they raise has been a leak of mine and I probably overcompensated in this case. I still think its a close decision but looking at the numbers and stoving it again it appears a call is correct here.
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May 21, 2013 00:54
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Mind_Taker posted:Thanks for the critique Moose. Not believing people when they raise has been a leak of mine and I probably overcompensated in this case. I still think its a close decision but looking at the numbers and stoving it again it appears a call is correct here. yeah I mean like you said we're 30% or w/e in the absolute worst possible scenario for us and there's a lot of room for error there. It could be shifted to a fold if you thought he was just limping every suited 3 like K3s and Q3s and calling flop but I don't think most people will call flop with a 3 for 100 bucks.
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May 21, 2013 01:52
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| # ? May 27, 2024 23:26 |
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Another $2/$5 hand. Villain is a good regular. Effective stacks are $1600. Villain opens from EP to $20. 2 callers before me. I call with 8 7 on the button. BB calls.Flop comes 6 53 Checks to me. I bet $70. Villain calls. One MP calls. Everyone else folds.Turn 2 Pot is like $310. Checks to me. I bet $200. Villain calls. MP folds.River is T Pot is $710. Villain checks. I...?Reads on villain: his opening range is very wide. He'll typically c-bet this flop if he has an overpair or better, or spades. If he has air he usually just check folds OOP with 5 to the flop. When he calls flop I put him on a pair, maybe like A5s or similar. Maybe 88 plays it this way too. I don't think he has a big hand though. He knows that I probably bet this flop with good made hands and good draws. After he calls turn and the river is a blank, I'm not sure what to do. Villain typically goes with his read all the way to the end. He views me as an aggressive player so if he thinks I have enough draws in my range he'll call me down to the river with something as weak as a 3 or 5. Just earlier in the session he called down to the river a 3 bet pot pre with 22 and won. Do I give up here or fire one more time? If so how big of a bet? If I had a straight or set here I would probably bet $450 to $500 against this villain so I assume that is what I should bet.
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May 22, 2013 18:37
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