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Hey, this didn't end up in here yet. http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/05/09/busting-the-banks/ Garth Turner posted:So today, every one of the Big Six banks continues to thumb its profitable nose at the feds, merrily penning 30-year deals. In fact a few lenders, like Vancity, Coast Capital and Laurentian Bank even have 35-year loans available. This appears to have since been confirmed. 25 year mortgages will likely be the final nail in coffin as carrying costs are about to go way up.
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May 14, 2013 17:26
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Baronjutter posted:Victoria check in! Hmm, that's weird, since prices are still well down from peak:  ...and the increases in the average we're seeing recently are largely due to sales being godawful and the market skewing towards fewer and fewer sales, mostly at the higher end, indicative of a market that is still definitely in distress. The pre-crash stall, as it were, just like in most U.S. cities in 2007/2008. I wonder where you're getting that information about the market being very str... Baronjutter posted:A realtor friend of the family was practically begging them to convince me to buy now because we're "due for another boom". Aha, I think I found the problem. ocrumsprug posted:This appears to have since been confirmed. 25 year mortgages will likely be the final nail in coffin as carrying costs are about to go way up. FWIW, the effect roughly translates to $50 more per month in mortgage costs per $100,000 borrowed. So yes, quite substantial.
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May 14, 2013 17:31
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All you need to know about Victoria's bubble is on this blog http://househuntvictoria.blogspot.ca/
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May 14, 2013 17:38
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Baronjutter posted:Victoria check in! It's that famous Keynes quote: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." Personally, I'd rather pay the possible increase in price over the next 2-5 years than get burned by something I am positive is going to happen. I'd just feel like too much of an idiot.
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May 14, 2013 17:39
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Ok, thanks for the info guys. This house-hunt website is pretty good for data. The thing is people don't care about data, they care about personal anecdotes. In my specific neighbourhood we've seen a lot of houses sell very quickly and for above-asking. And this drat realtor dude keeps going on about "BIDDING WARS OVER CONDOS!!!" and going on about how he's "Never seen so much competition to buy!" and I keep telling everyone to pretty much ignore him but "family friend". I doubt he's outright trying to lie/manipulate but when your surrounded by the industry you end up falling for all the hype. Of course the only locations we're looking at are victoria-proper. Basically Jubilee, Fairfield, Rockland, James bay. Everything else is pretty much written off as a "yucky neighbourhood" or "too far away". Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 17:54 on May 14, 2013 |
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May 14, 2013 17:48
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Baronjutter posted:They keep showing me market reports and articles and stuff saying we're at the bottom now, prices will only go up. who is they?
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May 14, 2013 17:54
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Odddzy posted:who is they? Who do you think? Realtors, finance people, and construction/development workers of course. But they're !!FAMILY FRIENDS!! so they'd never mislead or be victims of misinformation them selves. I should be lucky to have these people with "inside knowledge" telling me now is the perfect time to buy what they are selling. Oh also the friend of a friend who works at an american car dealership told us honda is a bad company and the Fit is a terrible investment and we should totally buy an american car because they are just as well made but the parts and upkeep is cheaper and now is the perfect time to buy an american car! Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 18:08 on May 14, 2013 |
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May 14, 2013 18:05
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Baronjutter posted:Who do you think? Realtors, finance people, and construction/development workers of course. But they're !!FAMILY FRIENDS!! so they'd never mislead or be victims of misinformation them selves. I should be lucky to have these people with "inside knowledge" telling me now is the perfect time to buy what they are selling. Buying a house was one of the most frustrating things I have done simply for the fact that everybody and their dog and cat want to impart their "wisdom" on you.
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May 14, 2013 18:15
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Baronjutter posted:Who do you think? Realtors, finance people, and construction/development workers of course. But they're !!FAMILY FRIENDS!! so they'd never mislead or be victims of misinformation them selves. I should be lucky to have these people with "inside knowledge" telling me now is the perfect time to buy what they are selling. You need to sit your girlfriend down in front of a spreadsheet and do some math. Take your total combined post-tax income then estimate your mortgage costs. Then calculate your monthly living costs and deduct them as well. Calculate your savings rate and ask your g/f whether she wants to retire one day or if she want to work as a wal-mart greeter until she dies so she can experience the PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP. I sat my g/f down in front of a spreadsheet and did this exact same thing. My g/f isn't dumb but she told me that she couldn't really put it all together until we started extrapolating our finances.
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May 14, 2013 18:16
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Yep, the moment we started saying we were interested in buying a place and probably a new car it was just non-stop wisdom on cars and real-estate from various baby-boomers, fonts of good financial planning. We've got about 60k saved up for a down-payment right now and it just keeps growing. If we buy next year I could see that being 70-80k. Even if the market doesn't go way down but just more or less stays the same I'd so love to have like 30% down or something. Every month we don't buy is an extra few thousand. We're living nearly rent-free right now so it's this amazing chance to really really save. We've also started a retirement fund but it's only about 15k each right now and over the years has like earned us $100 so far. It's just some lowish risk mutual fund thing. I'm wondering if it's better overall financially to take that out to have an even bigger downpayment on the condo so we have a smaller mortgage or keep it safe where it is being a totally useless retirement account. I guess this is more finance thread questions. Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 18:22 on May 14, 2013 |
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May 14, 2013 18:16
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Baronjutter posted:Oh also the friend of a friend who works at an american car dealership told us honda is a bad company and the Fit is a terrible investment and we should totally buy an american car because they are just as well made but the parts and upkeep is cheaper and now is the perfect time to buy an american car! Bland, lifeless, but drat if it isn't perfect for a growing family. Unfortunately I'm single and childless and I should have bought the Fiat 
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May 14, 2013 18:17
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Baronjutter posted:Yep, the moment we started saying we were interested in buying a place and probably a new car it was just non-stop wisdom on cars and real-estate from various baby-boomers, fonts of good financial planning. I literally cannot even imagine how people can save 60k. Congrats! The easy rule is to put your money wherever the interest rate is higher. If you're making a better interest rate on the retirement fund than you will be paying on your mortgage, keep it there. Otherwise use it for a down payment.
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May 14, 2013 18:35
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Twiin posted:I literally cannot even imagine how people can save 60k. Congrats! Thanks, we both just make in the $15-18 an hour range but we currently live in a basement suite in my parent's house so our rent is basically just utilities. She desperately wants out asap because she isn't a hobbit like me who enjoys basement living and feels sort of awkward living in my parents house despite it being a fully independent apartment and we can go weeks without even seeing them. One month she might be 100% on board waiting to buy and being responsible but all it takes is seeing some picture of some old school friend of hers buying a nice condo and suddenly we need to GET OUT ASAP. This despite not a single person of our generation that we know locally owning anything and everyone just renting lovely apartments little better (and often worse) than our nearly-free suite. The only reason I want to move is to have a full 2nd bedroom to convert into a hobby room. I'm totally comfortable where we are now and I loving love being in a basement in the summer because it stays so nice and cool and holy poo poo being able to put like 2 grand a month into savings. Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 18:52 on May 14, 2013 |
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May 14, 2013 18:46
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"the other shoe has dropped" http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...rticle11908008/ quote:For those who have been waiting for the other shoe to fall in Canada's housing-market slowdown, I have news for you: It already has. It just hasn't hit the ground yet.
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May 14, 2013 19:54
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Baronjutter posted:Thanks, we both just make in the $15-18 an hour range but we currently live in a basement suite in my parent's house so our rent is basically just utilities. That makes more sense. I should have said, I literally cannot even imagine how people can save 60k without being subsidized by family. Everyone I know who owns property either cashed out on a startup or has parents who helped them. More power to you and all that, I'd take advantage of that if I had it!
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May 14, 2013 21:00
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Twiin posted:That makes more sense. I should have said, I literally cannot even imagine how people can save 60k without being subsidized by family. Everyone I know who owns property either cashed out on a startup or has parents who helped them. More power to you and all that, I'd take advantage of that if I had it! If I had it my way I'd hide in this basement saving money until I could buy a place in cash!
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May 14, 2013 21:18
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Baronjutter posted:A realtor friend of the family was practically begging them to convince me to buy now because we're "due for another boom". I know it's anecdotal, but: I come from a large family of real estate people -- realtors, mortgage agents, and lawyers. When they say things like this, it's time to run for the hills.
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May 14, 2013 21:44
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Baronjutter posted:Victoria check in! It's called a bull trap.
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May 14, 2013 23:44
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So how does increase in the prices of rent and new "rental bidding wars" end up playing into this housing situation? It seems that tightening mortgage rules has worked to cool off the market, but suddenly the rental market has exploded and now that is becoming unaffordable. Will investors be willing to purchase enough inventory to keep the prices high and push people into renting at obscene prices? http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2013/05/14/gta_condo_rents_hit_record_as_wouldbe_homebuyers_stay_on_sidelines.html I remember a few years ago when people were stating that Hamilton was a great place to live because the homes were affordable and so forth, but suddenly, especially over the past year, things have gotten a little out of hand. Toronto transplants have made prices skyrocket in certain areas.
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May 14, 2013 23:48
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What's not really clear to me in that article is whether the supply of rental units is increasing or decreasing. It is counter intuitive to me that the rental supply stock of Toronto should be increasing as I think there is an oversupply of new condos. If rental costs are increasing and the rental supply stock is also increasing, then I'd say the Toronto Star is Full Of poo poo.
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May 15, 2013 00:14
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Well at least the liberals can be blamed for the coming housing "correction" rather than the NDP.
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May 15, 2013 06:43
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Baronjutter posted:Well at least the liberals can be blamed for the coming housing "correction" rather than the NDP.  That is good news. Aside from all of the terrible economic damage that is on the way that is.
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May 15, 2013 08:34
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Well reading this thread has certainly been enlightening. I'm from North Van (parents sold in 2001  ) and my wife is from Richmond Hill. We live in Seattle now and are lucky enough to hold top tier software jobs with the wherewithal to invest, and her family in Ontario has been pushing us for several years to buy a condo in TO for rental purposes. We've demurred mostly over the hassle of being a distant landlord but holy poo poo that is the smallest of all reasons not to buy. I can't believe how messed up this market has become.I feel bad for her little brother. Debt from a degree from Laurier, unsatisfying office job with no real chance of career or skills development. No chance to move out any time soon. 
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May 15, 2013 08:53
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Fuzzy Mammal posted:Well reading this thread has certainly been enlightening. I'm from North Van (parents sold in 2001 Dude, you're already in the United States. In an economically robust part, at that. If you must invest in real estate, do it there. Huge  at them trying to get you to buy a loving Toronto condo... the distance alone would make this a bad idea - nevermind the fundamentals.
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May 15, 2013 21:46
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I'm with Lexicon. I'm drooling at what it costs to buy a nice home near Green Lake.
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May 15, 2013 22:50
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Yeah, we're in Maple Leaf actually. It feels like Norgate neighbourhood did in the 90s. I'm excited about the light rail that will eventually come too: http://www.soundtransit.org/Projects-and-Plans/Northgate-Link-Extension So I'll end this derail by saying come on down if you can I suppose.
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May 15, 2013 23:16
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Cultural Imperial posted:"the other shoe has dropped"
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May 16, 2013 00:14
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Fuzzy Mammal posted:I'll end this derail by saying come on down if you can I suppose. Judging by your location and profile, there's a nonzero chance we used to work in the same office  I left to do a Masters and other stuff North of the 49th. In retrospect, this may have been a mistake - feeling increasingly uncertain that Canada holds the key to a happy future. Might have to come back down...
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May 16, 2013 00:26
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I sold my Vancouver condo this week after having it listed for about a week. I got approximately the BC assessed value and I'm very happy to get out of the market -- this thread definitely influenced my decision to sell rather than rent it out (well, that and the terrible ratio of property 'value' to rental prices in Vancouver). I'm going to be leaving Vancouver for a few years, hopefully things are much saner when I return. But it looks like it could get really ugly in the meantime. blah_blah fucked around with this message at 06:37 on May 17, 2013 |
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May 17, 2013 06:35
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I don't live in Canada but have a colleague from Vancouver that's put down 200 grand on a condo there as an investment. She's fresh out of college and investing literally all her savings on it, saying that it's a sure win investment. Crazy...
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May 17, 2013 07:00
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shrike82 posted:I don't live in Canada but have a colleague from Vancouver that's put down 200 grand on a condo there as an investment. She's fresh out of college and investing literally all her savings on it, saying that it's a sure win investment. She clearly should have bought an over-priced bubble condo in Toronto instead.
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May 17, 2013 07:10
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shrike82 posted:I don't live in Canada but have a colleague from Vancouver that's put down 200 grand on a condo there as an investment. She's fresh out of college and investing literally all her savings on it, saying that it's a sure win investment. What did the condo sell for? 800k? Does she intend on living in it or is she going to rent it out? The rental market in Vancouver is dead.
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May 17, 2013 16:03
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shrike82 posted:I don't live in Canada but have a colleague from Vancouver that's put down 200 grand on a condo there as an investment. She's fresh out of college and investing literally all her savings on it, saying that it's a sure win investment.
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May 17, 2013 16:17
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Cultural Imperial posted:The rental market in Vancouver is dead. Dead how-so? Price:rent and thus cap rate is totally out to lunch, but there's still a reasonably healthy market for actually finding tenants, no?
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May 17, 2013 16:39
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Ofc. Sex Robot BPD posted:Who the hell has 200k in savings fresh out of college? Presumably it is family money, or mom and dad helping out. That has become the standard in Vancouver over the last decade, particularly as income to property values dissassociated.
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May 17, 2013 16:42
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Man the only thing anyone comes out of school with is crushing debt and unemployment.
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May 17, 2013 16:54
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Baronjutter posted:Man the only thing anyone comes out of school with is crushing debt and unemployment. It's funny because you can get a nice house in Windsor with two bathrooms and at least three bedrooms for $120K or less. And still live close to downtown without being in a slummy area. But having a job at the same time? Impossible. loving impossible.
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May 17, 2013 16:58
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Baronjutter posted:Man the only thing anyone comes out of school with is crushing debt and unemployment.
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May 17, 2013 17:23
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Lexicon posted:Dead how-so? Price:rent and thus cap rate is totally out to lunch, but there's still a reasonably healthy market for actually finding tenants, no? It's really hard to find tenants right now. I've got family members trying to rent out their places and it ain't happening.
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May 17, 2013 17:28
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Ofc. Sex Robot BPD posted:Who the hell has 200k in savings fresh out of college? Well according Bob Rennie, the next 10 years of Vancouver's real estate bull market will be financed by Baby Boomers gifting their children with proceeds from the sales of their hom uh oh
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May 17, 2013 17:29
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