China Megathread - Their navy can be taken seriously or taken littorally

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > China Megathread - Their navy can be taken seriously or taken littorally

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Deep State of Mind: Jul 30, 2006; "It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."; Fun Shoe

Hong Kongers still have the idea that mainland product = useless poo poo that will break immediately and rape your family.

I got a lot of people criticizing me and saying I was stupid for considering a Xiaomi phone :shobon:

# ? Jun 25, 2013 07:20

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# ? May 10, 2024 16:01

caberham: Mar 18, 2009; by Smythe; Grimey Drawer

Hongers don't even know where Wenzhou is and are hopelessly dumb when it comes to mainland Geography :suicide:

In general, Hongers are pretty ignorant of the mainland and are stuck in the 1980's concept of a poor industrial wasteland. Not that the modern China is perfect, but the rapid changes China goes through for better or worse is truly incredible.

# ? Jun 25, 2013 08:08

fart simpson: Jul 2, 2005; DEATH TO AMERICA

caberham posted:

Hongers don't even know where Wenzhou is and are hopelessly dumb when it comes to mainland Geography In general, Hongers are pretty ignorant of the mainland and are stuck in the 1980's concept of a poor industrial wasteland. Not that the modern China is perfect, but the rapid changes China goes through for better or worse is truly incredible.

The geographic ignorance isn't just a Honger thing. I've met some people here in Shenzhen that can't even point to their city of birth on a map of China. And one of my coworkers thought Australia was an island off the coast of Europe.

# ? Jun 25, 2013 08:10

VideoTapir: Oct 18, 2005; He'll tire eventually.

I recently bought my wife a globe. It's been entertaining.

# ? Jun 25, 2013 08:22

Pro-PRC Laowai: Sep 30, 2004; by toby

VideoTapir posted:

I recently bought my wife a globe. It's been entertaining.

Do yourself a favor and never let her start watching "White Queen", you'll be giving history lessons every five minutes.

# ? Jun 25, 2013 08:50

caberham: Mar 18, 2009; by Smythe; Grimey Drawer

Oh Pro PRC, you should have you know... dated someone more knowledgeable :downsrim:

MY GIRLFRIEND is the one who knows more about British History than me :eng101:

New York times, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/26/business/global/china-stocks-tumble-for-second-straight-day.html?_r=0 posted:

China Stocks Tumble for Second Straight Day
By BETTINA WASSENER
Published: June 25, 2013

HONG KONG � Chinese stock markets were volatile on Tuesday as nervous investors weighed the lingering impact of a cash crunch that Beijing hoped would rein in soaring lending growth and the financial risks that have accompanied it.

The Shanghai composite index, which had tumbled 5.3 percent on Monday, slumped more than 5 percent by early afternoon before clawing back most of those losses and closing down 0.2 percent. The index has lost nearly 20 percent since early February. The Shenzhen composite index likewise reversed sharp losses, closing 0.2 percent lower on the day, but still more than 15 percent below a high hit in late May.

�The stock markets are continuing to react to the very elevated funding costs,� said Dariusz Kowalczyk, a senior economist and strategist at Cr�dit Agricole in Hong Kong, referring to a recent surge in interbank lending rates. Those rates determine how costly it is for banks to borrow money from one another, often to cover short-term obligations.

The interbank rates soared to record highs last Thursday, setting off concerns over the health of the Chinese financial system and underlining the Chinese authorities� determination to steer lenders toward more prudent loans � even if it meant slower overall economic growth.

Interbank lending rates have retreated somewhat since Friday, and continued to do so on Tuesday.

The benchmark overnight lending rate, a gauge of liquidity in the financial market, stood at 5.736 percent. That was down from 6.489 percent on Monday, and well below the record high of 13.44 percent it hit on Thursday, but still above where it had been over the past 18 months � indicating jitters over the impact on the financial system and the already cooling economy persisted on Tuesday.

�Any asset class suffers when money market rates are expensive,� Mr. Kowalczyk said. Although he believed the authorities in Beijing would step in quickly to forestall any wider turmoil in the country�s financial system by injecting cash, �the risks of maintaining the liquidity crunch for longer are not negligible,� he said.

The fact that the People�s Bank of China had allowed interbank lending rates to hit record highs has been widely interpreted as a deliberate effort to force banks to reduce risky lending.

�It is a shot across the bow for those medium-sized banks who had borrowed short to lend long in the unregulated shadow banking system,� analysts at LGT in Hong Kong wrote in a note on Tuesday. �A cash shortage should remind them to be more prudent in their lending.�

As such, many analysts have said such a stance could ultimately be positive in that it could instill more lending discipline and reduce the chances of asset price bubbles and loan defaults that have built up alongside rapid lending growth in the past few months.

Still, the central bank�s tough stance also bears risks.

�We believe the biggest risk comes from the PBOC potentially mishandling the situation,� Ting Lu, China economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, wrote in a research note on Tuesday, referring to the People�s Bank of China. �That being said, we believe the PBOC and Chinese policymakers will be aware of the potential dangers and take decisive measures to revive the interbank market, to calm investors and to stabilize the economy.�

I do have a conspiracy theory that it's the guys at top making crazy margin calls and then collaborating with each other to make a market short and crash pocketing the difference twice. PBOC will step in anyways and try to fix things. Will the PBOC do quantitative easing? I think so, the question remains, how many times and for how long?

If you can predict the sudden bump, then you can make a bumper crop investment. At the cost of a even more messed up economy :smith:

# ? Jun 25, 2013 09:57

Deep State of Mind: Jul 30, 2006; "It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."; Fun Shoe

caberham posted:

Oh Pro PRC, you should have you know... dated someone more knowledgeable MY GIRLFRIEND is the one who knows more about British History than me

edit: wrong forum

content:

The stock tumbles have actually affected ordinary retail investors. People on WeChat are making noise about it.

Deep State of Mind fucked around with this message at 10:17 on Jun 25, 2013

# ? Jun 25, 2013 10:14

GuestBob: Nov 27, 2005

caberham posted:

Will the PBOC do quantitative easing? I think so, the question remains, how many times and for how long?

BBC says no - I think it really is anyone's guess.

# ? Jun 25, 2013 12:05

Mister Fister: May 17, 2008; D&D: HASBARA SQUAD
KILL-GORE

I love the smell of dead Palestinians in the morning.
You know, one time we had Gaza bombed for 26 days
(and counting!)

I'm surprised this wasn't posted in this thread, but a bunch of factory workers are holding a western boss hostage :laugh:

http://www.npr.org/2013/06/25/195426314/chinese-factory-workers-hold-u-s-boss-captive

Times like these i miss LF

# ? Jun 25, 2013 18:31

ReindeerF: Apr 20, 2002; Rubber Dinghy Rapids Bro

The details are hilarious, if accurate. They're holding him hostage because the fired workers got a severance and they, not having been fired, didn't get severances.

# ? Jun 25, 2013 20:58

vanity slug: Jul 20, 2010

ReindeerF posted:

The details are hilarious, if accurate. They're holding him hostage because the fired workers got a severance and they, not having been fired, didn't get severances.

They're not being paid their regular wages. Kind of a lovely thing to do.

# ? Jun 25, 2013 21:16

ReindeerF: Apr 20, 2002; Rubber Dinghy Rapids Bro

Jeoh posted:

They're not being paid their regular wages. Kind of a lovely thing to do.

Ah, didn't catch that in the article I read (which is why I put in the part about accuracy). I'll read this one.

FAKE EDIT: Yep, second paragraph - sorry about that. Typical bad international reporting on my other source.

# ? Jun 25, 2013 21:21

CIGNX: May 7, 2006; You can trust me

caberham posted:

I do have a conspiracy theory that it's the guys at top making crazy margin calls and then collaborating with each other to make a market short and crash pocketing the difference twice. PBOC will step in anyways and try to fix things. Will the PBOC do quantitative easing? I think so, the question remains, how many times and for how long?

They shouldn't need to. QE is a backup plan to increase liquidity when interest rates are at/near 0%. The SHIBOR overnight and 1 week rates are around 5% and 7% right now. If the PBoC needed to create liquidity, they could do it with regular open market operation or lower reserve requirement ratios.

# ? Jun 25, 2013 23:23

Deep State of Mind: Jul 30, 2006; "It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."; Fun Shoe

I'm glad those workers are standing up to the incredibly lovely but unfortunately common practice in China of paying wages like 6 months in arrears. I was really surprised to learn that a good friend of mine who is a reporter for GDTV (or GZTV, I get them confused) is still owed her salary from January. I thought it was just like factory workers and people on the bottom rungs of society, but even journalists with masters degrees suffer going months without pay.

Then of course they're afraid to quit because then they would never see the money they're owed. I asked my friend why she doesn't just sue for her contractually mandated wages and I guess that's a good way to get blacklisted and never work again or something.

# ? Jun 26, 2013 03:35

caberham: Mar 18, 2009; by Smythe; Grimey Drawer

Bloodnose and goons, don't look at me! We do things right and by the book! Normally migrants prefer working for international companies and foreign firms. There's a bigger focus on safety, paying on time, and doing the job right. The usual pecking order is international factories---> American/Euro ---> Japanese ---> HongKong/Taiwan ----> Domestic ---> Corner shop/stall

In Snowden news, Secretary Justice Rimsky Yuen Kwok-Keung snaps back at US civil service over procedural rules. The Standard.

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=30&art_id=134957&sid=39870263&con_type=1 posted:

Eddie Luk

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Secretary for Justice Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung has hit back at the United States for claiming Hong Kong made a bad call in allowing whistle-blower Edward Snowden to leave.
Speaking for the first time since Snowden arrived here on May 20 and began disclosing details of US phone and internet surveillance programs, Yuen pointed to contradictory information the Americans provided in asking SAR authorities to arrest the runaway security analyst, which was meant to lead to extraditing him on spying charges.

The flaws, Yuen spelled out yesterday, included different middle names for Snowden. Yuen said the US request for a provisional arrest warrant to be issued identified Edward James Snowden, while the immigration record showed Edward Joseph Snowden arriving here. Yet a US court document referred to Edward J Snowden. There was also a lack of a passport number for Snowden.

Yuen's refutation came a day after US Secretary of State John Kerry expressed disappointment that SAR authorities allowed 30-year-old Snowden to fly to Moscow on Sunday.

That followed on from a White House official claiming it was a deliberate choice by Hong Kong to release Snowden.

"We neither deliberately allowed Snowden to leave nor did we delay handling his case," Yuen said. "Hong Kong had no legal ground to bar or stop Snowden from leaving."

The US government asked Hong Kong to issue a warrant on June 15 after Snowden, who worked in Hawaii for a National Security Agency contractor, was charged in the United States with theft of government property and leaks of national defense and confidential intelligence information.

The Department of Justice notified US officials on June 17 that a list of questions was being prepared as clarifications were needed, Yuen said.

Hong Kong also wanted more details of the charges and evidence against Snowden to make sure it was not a political case.

Additionally, Yuen spoke to US Attorney General Eric Holder by phone. "The details we wanted were absolutely necessary if we were to detain Snowden," Yuen declared.

"As the US government had failed to provide the information by the time Snowden left Hong Kong, it was impossible for the Department of Justice to apply to a court for a temporary warrant of arrest. In fact, even at this time, the US government has still not provided the details we asked for."

American authorities also failed to reply to a Security Bureau question asking whether the US conducted surveillance programs in Hong Kong.

Also yesterday, Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying said the Snowden saga was not over even though he had left Hong Kong.

Officials were trying to explain the SAR's position to the Americans, Leung said, and they were also seeking assurances about claims of US hacking of computers here.

"While we attach great importance to Hong Kong-US relations, it's also necessary to attach importance to Hong Kong's interests," Leung said.

On that, the government had been monitoring international media to check if the SAR's image has been affected.

But one result was that the international community had finally realized Hong Kong is part of China but enjoys a high degree of autonomy, Leung said.

He believed, in fact, that Hong Kong's image abroad has been enhanced by being in the international spotlight.

Bolded mine. Sure enough the authorities could have used a Photo ID and not just a legal name :iiam:

Hong Kong's civil service is really efficient compared to the rest of the world. For all the bitching us Hongers have against the SAR, the government is on the ball when it comes to handling documents and civil servants doing their jobs. Taxes are filed with 1 sheet. Even if you drive there are no DMV shenanigans. Immigration department appointments are mostly on time. Our bureaucrats are amazing and do things by the book. Our leaders and politicans though :smith:

We still have lovely government websites though :smith:

caberham fucked around with this message at 04:18 on Jun 26, 2013

# ? Jun 26, 2013 04:14

GuestBob: Nov 27, 2005

caberham posted:

In Snowden news, Secretary Justice Rimsky Yuen Kwok-Keung snaps back at US civil service over procedural rules.

They literally just said "meiyou".

Love it.

# ? Jun 26, 2013 04:23

Arglebargle III: Feb 21, 2006

Yeah this is like literally the class I just taught.

"The middle name you gave us was wrong."

"... we never gave you a middle name."

"Well there was no passport number."

"... pretty sure we gave you a passport number."

Now the scenarios diverge: first let's present In China:

"I'm sorry, there is no passport number so now there is no way to complete this operation. Very sorry, please have your papers in order next time."

"...okay." :seethes with impotent rage:

Now In America:

"I'm sorry there is no passport number-"

"There absolutely was a passport number. What are you guys, idiots? Do you think we're idiots?!"

:shocked stare:

"How could you think we wouldn't notice this?! What is wrong with you?!"

"No, there was no passport number..."

"This is a photocopy of the letter with passport number."

:deer in the headlights:

Sorry D&D Megathread but I am currently teaching a culture class about how to (or rather how not to) lie in America. Chinese people often confuse and anger Americans with transparent and, from the American perspective, idiotic and insulting lies. In Chinese culture even the most transparent lies are ignored as a matter of good taste (depending on the unspoken seniority relationships of the people present) and people who point out the lies are often treated as if they, rather than the liar, are the problem. When Chinese people bring this attitude about lies to the States they are frequently reamed out in public by the first person they try it on and adopt a deer-in-the-headlights look familiar to anyone who knows Chinese emigrants to the U.S.

The people familiar with Chinese culture are amused because the Hong Kong Ministry of Justice has just exhibited the implausible dismissive Chinese lie to a tee and they're going to get away with it. "mei you" indeed.

# ? Jun 26, 2013 09:54

Pro-PRC Laowai: Sep 30, 2004; by toby

Arglebargle III posted:

Yeah this is like literally the class I just taught.

"The middle name you gave us was wrong."

"... we never gave you a middle name."

"Well there was no passport number."

"... pretty sure we gave you a passport number."

Now the scenarios diverge: first let's present In China:

"I'm sorry, there is no passport number so now there is no way to complete this operation. Very sorry, please have your papers in order next time."

"...okay." :seethes with impotent rage:

Now In America:

"I'm sorry there is no passport number-"

"There absolutely was a passport number. What are you guys, idiots? Do you think we're idiots?!"

:shocked stare:

"How could you think we wouldn't notice this?! What is wrong with you?!"

"No, there was no passport number..."

"This is a photocopy of the letter with passport number."

:deer in the headlights:

Sorry D&D Megathread but I am currently teaching a culture class about how to (or rather how not to) lie in America. Chinese people often confuse and anger Americans with transparent and, from the American perspective, idiotic and insulting lies. In Chinese culture even the most transparent lies are ignored as a matter of good taste (depending on the unspoken seniority relationships of the people present) and people who point out the lies are often treated as if they, rather than the liar, are the problem. When Chinese people bring this attitude about lies to the States they are frequently reamed out in public by the first person they try it on and adopt a deer-in-the-headlights look familiar to anyone who knows Chinese emigrants to the U.S.

The people familiar with Chinese culture are amused because the Hong Kong Ministry of Justice has just exhibited the implausible dismissive Chinese lie to a tee and they're going to get away with it. "mei you" indeed.

We're terribly sorry this has caused you inconvenience, however the request you filed did not match our records. Knowing what serious charges you allege and grave repercussions they may result in, we merely took precaution as to protect the freedoms and human rights of any innocent person or persons within our borders. We requested further clarification, however you did not respond prior to his departure. We had no legal basis to detain him at the time as no valid warrant had been filed, as such, in the future for urgent matters, please ensure your requests are both complete and timely. NEXT.

# ? Jun 26, 2013 10:56

Vegetable: Oct 22, 2010

What are the three of you circle-jerking about? The US government hosed up their paperwork on a controversial extradition request. That article doesn't even detail the extent to which the US's request was based on shoddy legal grounds -- political charges are explicitly exempted under the extradition treaty. I've had pretty horrible experiences with Chinese bureaucracy but this thread seems to find the worst excuses to do some racist "The Chinese people are like that" rant.

# ? Jun 26, 2013 11:20

WarpedNaba: Feb 8, 2012; Being social makes me swell!

I'm just annoyed that he didn't go to New Zealand. With the FTA we have with China and Hong Kong, we could've traded him for 50 tons of premium milk powder. A bargain at any price!

# ? Jun 26, 2013 11:22

GuestBob: Nov 27, 2005

Vegetable posted:

...racist "The Chinese people are like that" rant.

Ah, ha ha. Ha. Yes. Please. This is China, things are different here.

Are you seriously arguing that an official response which cites irregularities in form XYZ1032B as a reason for failing to comply with an extradition request for someone as significant as Snowden is wholly reasonable? If the situation had been reversed, the US State Department would be waving it's genitals in the air and shouting about inalienable rights and human rights and baring arms and other such things.

There, now I have been racist about Americans. Harmony has returned.

GuestBob fucked around with this message at 12:10 on Jun 26, 2013

# ? Jun 26, 2013 12:03

caberham: Mar 18, 2009; by Smythe; Grimey Drawer

Honestly, I rather HK be more direct and saying, "WTF are these grounds, we don't do that here unless it's mainland China". The notion of having immediate direct communication yet still failing procedural justice is funny to me

WarpedNaba posted:

I'm just annoyed that he didn't go to New Zealand. With the FTA we have with China and Hong Kong, we could've traded him for 50 tons of premium milk powder. A bargain at any price!

Snowden and kim dot com. That would have been a perfect combo. PRISM META DATA ON MEGA

# ? Jun 26, 2013 12:07

Deceitful Penguin: Feb 16, 2011

WarpedNaba posted:

I'm just annoyed that he didn't go to New Zealand. With the FTA we have with China and Hong Kong, we could've traded him for 50 tons of premium milk powder. A bargain at any price!

Lots of peeps in Iceland is mad as well at Ecuador nabbing all the cool political cases. I blame our cold weather personally.

# ? Jun 26, 2013 13:20

Riso: Oct 11, 2008; by merry exmarx

caberham posted:

Snowden and kim dot com. That would have been a perfect combo. PRISM META DATA ON MEGA

Who says it isn't on Mega.co.nz?

# ? Jun 26, 2013 14:26

GuestBob: Nov 27, 2005

Deceitful Penguin posted:

Lots of peeps in Iceland is mad as well at Ecuador nabbing all the cool political cases. I blame our cold weather personally.

It could also be the Dame tu mano, Y venga conmigo, Vámonos al viaje para buscar los sonidos mágicos, Ecuador!

Only registered members can see post attachments!

# ? Jun 26, 2013 14:40

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

He can't go to New Zealand because NZ is one of the five countries that participate in PRISM. Pretty sure they'd extradite his rear end.

# ? Jun 26, 2013 16:44

Arglebargle III: Feb 21, 2006

D&Ders calling out cultural differences (or having the temerity to talk about them) as racist never gets old. :allears:

I think it's pretty clear that the U.S. DoJ didn't gently caress up the paperwork on their extradition request, this is just a very Chinese way of dealing with something without actually having to say no. It drives Americans crazy but that's how they do. The American response would just be "you have no grounds for extradition so neener neener" and the Chinese response should be received as communicating the same concept, just in a way that is palatable in Chinese culture.

# ? Jun 27, 2013 02:22

Deep State of Mind: Jul 30, 2006; "It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."; Fun Shoe

Speaking of Rimsky Yuen giving the US the Chinesest of fingers, I chuckled at today's Harry:

It also comments on how some Hong Kongers choose the most ridiculous English names.

# ? Jun 27, 2013 02:28

Sogol: Apr 11, 2013; Galileo's Finger

Arglebargle III posted:

D&Ders calling out cultural differences (or having the temerity to talk about them) as racist never gets old.

I think it's pretty clear that the U.S. DoJ didn't gently caress up the paperwork on their extradition request, this is just a very Chinese way of dealing with something without actually having to say no. It drives Americans crazy but that's how they do. The American response would just be "you have no grounds for extradition so neener neener" and the Chinese response should be received as communicating the same concept, just in a way that is palatable in Chinese culture.

I think there were 77 applications for groups to protest the Beijing Olympics. None were permitted. All but two were rejected for paper work and application violations. Two were rejected.

# ? Jun 27, 2013 03:52

Zuhzuhzombie!!: Apr 17, 2008; FACTS ARE A CONSPIRACY BY THE CAPITALIST OPRESSOR

Whoever recommended Land Without Ghosts, thanks. I got it, read it, and it was pretty interesting.

ed

Xi playing Maoist again.

quote:

Officials of ruling Communist Party of China should shed the obsession with GDP numbers to get promotions and return to principles of Marxism, which suffered an ideological meltdown in the course of the country�s economic reforms, President Xi Jinping said today.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...ow/20847250.cms

Zuhzuhzombie!! fucked around with this message at 15:30 on Jul 1, 2013

# ? Jun 30, 2013 16:09

Traveller: Jan 6, 2012; WHIM AND FOPPERY

4chan's /a/ is the last place I would expect to find out about Hong Kong democracy protests, but:

For reference, the monsters are from Shingeki no Kyojin, an anime/manga series about the last remnants of humanity being hunted down by gigantic, misshapen, man-eating titans. The red muscley one is the iconic Colossal Titan, over fifty meters tall and able to break through the anti-Titan walls surrounding the human lands so that its lesser brethren can get in and feast on the tiny human treats inside.

# ? Jul 1, 2013 20:29

caberham: Mar 18, 2009; by Smythe; Grimey Drawer

Some photos of mine: There was a mild typhoon and constant wind and rain. The protesters didn't care though

It was a really long march for Hong Kong. For 4km, and the whole afternoon everyone who had an something to complain or protest showed up. Banned "Martial artists", students for democracy, dads asking for paternity leave, labourers, middle class home owners protesting on price controls, etc.

The numbers reported were a bit inflated. The Police only reported 60k, the organizers 430k. :iiam:

# ? Jul 2, 2013 03:31

Deep State of Mind: Jul 30, 2006; "It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."; Fun Shoe

caberham posted:

The numbers reported were a bit inflated. The Police only reported 60k, the organizers 430k.

That happens every year. Police say something under 100,000, while organizers say hundreds and hundreds of thousands. I can't think of any real way of knowing for sure, but I think the police number is more realistic. It's easy to look out at a big crowd and say "yep that's a half a million people," but that many dudes wouldn't even fit onto a sidewalk in Wan Chai.

edit:

Deep State of Mind fucked around with this message at 05:10 on Jul 2, 2013

# ? Jul 2, 2013 04:04

GuestBob: Nov 27, 2005

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23029251

New article examining the financial whoopsie which recently happenned.

Robert Peston isn't reporting on it though, so obviously that indicates that the BBC doesn't really think that there's a problem anymore.

GuestBob fucked around with this message at 03:48 on Jul 3, 2013

# ? Jul 3, 2013 03:45

get that OUT of my face: Feb 10, 2007

My ex says that a couple of days ago she got a car loan without any trouble. I guess the crisis isn't full-blown yet, even though she does say it's one of the three major topics on the news along with Snowden and Xinjiang.

# ? Jul 4, 2013 10:28

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Y-Hat posted:

My ex says that a couple of days ago she got a car loan without any trouble. I guess the crisis isn't full-blown yet, even though she does say it's one of the three major topics on the news along with Snowden and Xinjiang.

Well the government started to provide liquidity back into the system quickly once inter-banking rates rocketed up however the Chinese banking system is sick and its long term prospects aren't great.

# ? Jul 4, 2013 10:52

GuestBob: Nov 27, 2005

Ardennes posted:

Well the government started to provide liquidity back into the system quickly once inter-banking rates rocketed up however the Chinese banking system is sick and its long term prospects aren't great.

The government pretty much just wanted to poke the banking sector with a stick I think.

Given that a whole bunch of the bad debt is basically crappy loans to local authorities and SOEs, surely there is nothing wrong with the central government just bailing them out? Other than that it would be inconvenient to have to fire half the senior managers in China for repeatedly shoving their dick in the cookie jar I don't see anything particularly surprising about it.

I don't know, most of my ramblings on economics in China are underpinned by a suspicion that the central government has shitloads of money just chilling in a warehouse just outside Zumadian and that there's a magic button somewhere that someone can push in case of fiscal emergency.

Who really knows though - the next world war is probably going to be triggered by the collapse of chicken-foot futures or somesuch.

# ? Jul 4, 2013 11:29

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

GuestBob posted:

The government pretty much just wanted to poke the banking sector with a stick I think.

Given that a whole bunch of the bad debt is basically crappy loans to local authorities and SOEs, surely there is nothing wrong with the central government just bailing them out? Other than that it would be inconvenient to have to fire half the senior managers in China for repeatedly shoving their dick in the cookie jar I don't see anything particularly surprising about it.

I don't know, most of my ramblings on economics in China are underpinned by a suspicion that the central government has shitloads of money just chilling in a warehouse just outside Zumadian and that there's a magic button somewhere that someone can push in case of fiscal emergency.

Who really knows though - the next world war is probably going to be triggered by the collapse of chicken-foot futures or somesuch.

Granted the issue is that the shadow banking sector in China is probably even more massive than we are aware and is responsible for China's remaining growth. The Chinese governments has foreign currency reserves, but it may not be enough. Part of it is we just don't have accurate information how many and how big the bad loans are because banking industry is so opaque.

Also, it very well may reach the point that the government can't easily can get into the system especially if they lose control of the situation. They poked it with a stick and it erupted, what happens when a larger and more unpredictable crisis happens? Theoretically China can print money, even despite the loose peg with the dollar but it is unclear exactly how much devaluation is realistically going to be possible.

The other thing is that Chinese growth since the late 00s has been created with easy money, that probably has to end which means Chinese growth is going to drop like a rock. Of course issue is that life isn't easy already for most people, a poor economy coupled with corruption and authoritarianism, isn't a great combination.

# ? Jul 4, 2013 11:46

GuestBob: Nov 27, 2005

Ardennes posted:

The other thing is that Chinese growth since the late 00s has been created with easy money, that probably has to end which means Chinese growth is going to drop like a rock. Of course issue is that life isn't easy already for most people, a poor economy coupled with corruption and authoritarianism, isn't a great combination.

I'll certainly give you the idea that the opacity of the system is a huge "x" in the mix and that the government's secret buttmoney might just smell like poo poo if they have to pull it out too quickly.

However, although the recent growth in China has been supported by readily available capital, I would still argue that the growth in the early and mid 00s was founded on an fairly solid increase in export led production. It certainly had a stronger foundation than much of the growth in the West. These days, the housing bubble and various oddities are contributing to growth so I am pretty sure it has become unsustainable, but I still think there is potential to avoid a dramatic implosion.

# ? Jul 4, 2013 14:12

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# ? May 10, 2024 16:01

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

GuestBob posted:

I'll certainly give you the idea that the opacity of the system is a huge "x" in the mix and that the government's secret buttmoney might just smell like poo poo if they have to pull it out too quickly.

However, although the recent growth in China has been supported by readily available capital, I would still argue that the growth in the early and mid 00s was founded on an fairly solid increase in export led production. It certainly had a stronger foundation than much of the growth in the West. These days, the housing bubble and various oddities are contributing to growth so I am pretty sure it has become unsustainable, but I still think there is potential to avoid a dramatic implosion.

Yes, of course, but that was the fairly predictable and ultimately unsustainable growth of an industrial revolution. China turned from an almost an entirely agricultural country into an industrial one, but every industrial state faces limited returns at some point. The West obviously had already industrialized and industrial growth of that ferocity was long gone, also globalization undercut the possibility of slower but more sustainable industrial/manufacturing based growth.

The issue is that the Communist Party founded much of their legitimacy on very high growth, and once in the late 00s it wasn't going to be so easy, they cheated like the West had been doing. Of course the question is how big the drop is going to be, and what its effects will look like. Much of the Chinese population is still quite poor and even a 2008 style "recession" would be quite brutal to them.

# ? Jul 4, 2013 14:22

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