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ComradeCosmobot posted:Not really, no. And the fact that the Senate minority leader in a state that went 60-40 for Romney and managed to kick out a five-term Democratic incumbent last year is being called the "most vulnerable" candidate should say a lot about how few opportunities there are for Dem pickups.
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Jul 22, 2013 01:06
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ComradeCosmobot posted:Not really, no. And the fact that the Senate minority leader in a state that went 60-40 for Romney and managed to kick out a five-term Democratic incumbent last year is being called the "most vulnerable" candidate should say a lot about how few opportunities there are for Dem pickups. Eh, polling has shown McConnell as pretty vulnerable even in a vacuum for a while now, and Kentucky has a Democratic governor, lieutenant governor, AG, secretary of state (obviously), treasurer, and auditor so it's not really a state like Idaho where Democrats cannot win statewide. eta: Obviously they sort of can in Louisiana even post-Katrina, but aside from the Landrieu family... Gen. Ripper posted:What's this a reference to? Kentucky didn't have a Senate election in 2012 and the seat was held by a Republican before Rand (son of Ron) was elected in 2010. Ben Chandler was holding a pretty red House district and got beaten by Andy Barr in 2012 after holding on by a few hundred votes in 2010. oldfan fucked around with this message at 01:13 on Jul 22, 2013 |
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Jul 22, 2013 01:06
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jeffersonlives posted:Eh, polling has shown McConnell as pretty vulnerable even in a vacuum for a while now, and Kentucky has a Democratic governor, lieutenant governor, AG, secretary of state (obviously), treasurer, and auditor so it's not really a state like Idaho or Louisiana where Democrats cannot win statewide. Not to mention, the 2004 Senate race was pretty close and the Republican only one by 1.4%. In 2004, which was otherwise a good year for Republicans.
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Jul 22, 2013 01:08
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Without the help of Rand Paul, Mitch McConnell cannot get re-elected. This is going to create some interesting situations over the next year and a half.
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Jul 22, 2013 01:13
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Joementum posted:Without the help of Rand Paul, Mitch McConnell cannot get re-elected. This is going to create some interesting situations over the next year and a half. TNR posted:But perhaps Paul’s biggest coup is the influence he has gained over McConnell. The Senate minority leader faces a tough reelection bid in 2014—his poll numbers in Kentucky have been inversely proportional to Paul’s rising ones—and he has found that his state’s Republican apparatus is being slowly converted into a bastion of Paulism. It is no coincidence that, last fall, McConnell hired Benton, Paul’s political guru, to run his campaign. “McConnell realized that he can’t get reelected without Rand Paul’s support,” says a Senate staffer.
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Jul 22, 2013 01:16
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This is worth mentioning from that article as well, and it's why McConnell sucking up to Paul is so ironic:quote:Going into the Spring of 2009, Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson was a favorite local son. That year, Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader and the state’s political godfather, persuaded Senator Jim Bunning to make way for a more dynamic candidate and urged Grayson to run for the seat. Grayson seemed to be a lock for the Republican nomination—his main competition was an ophthalmologist in the western part of the state. Whatever you may think of Rand, his 2010 rise to fame is a pretty interesting story. Also, the extremism of North Carolina's state legislature is probably helping to boost up Kay Hagan a bit - Sherrod Brown had a similar boost from Kasich's anti-union law and the subsequent backlash in 2011.
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Jul 22, 2013 03:30
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Yeah, as much as "white supremacist secures power and popular support in Kentucky" is a dog-bites-man story, the weird twists in the Paul saga almost make it worthwhile.
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Jul 22, 2013 03:32
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jeffersonlives posted:Eh, polling has shown McConnell as pretty vulnerable even in a vacuum for a while now, and Kentucky has a Democratic governor, lieutenant governor, AG, secretary of state (obviously), treasurer, and auditor so it's not really a state like Idaho where Democrats cannot win statewide. Winning elections for national offices is a completely different ball game than governor and so forth. I'd say there's maybe a 10% chance he gets knocked off.
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Jul 22, 2013 08:56
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comes along bort posted:There's been an ongoing series of protests every Monday in Raleigh for the past couple months. The Moral Mondays would fall under the Democratic Base heading.
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Jul 22, 2013 14:57
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mcmagic posted:The Moral Mondays would fall under the Democratic Base heading. You said activists. But at any rate, all the people I know who got arrested are neither activists nor part of the party base. In fact I had no idea what any of their political beliefs were beforehand. And the shenanigans are about as well-covered in the larger newspapers/local tv news as they can be. If PPP is to be believed they've definitely taken their toll on the general voting public.
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Jul 22, 2013 23:11
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comes along bort posted:You said activists. But at any rate, all the people I know who got arrested are neither activists nor part of the party base. In fact I had no idea what any of their political beliefs were beforehand. And the shenanigans are about as well-covered in the larger newspapers/local tv news as they can be. If PPP is to be believed they've definitely taken their toll on the general voting public. I hope so 
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Jul 22, 2013 23:13
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The daughter of former Senator Sam Nunn (D-GA) is going to announce her Georgia Senate campaign tomorrow, according to Harry Reid.
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Jul 23, 2013 00:07
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Joementum posted:The daughter of former Senator Sam Nunn (D-GA) is going to announce her Georgia Senate campaign tomorrow, according to Harry Reid. Does she have a chance? Is she currently a state-wide officeholder in GA?
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Jul 23, 2013 01:29
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axeil posted:Does she have a chance? Is she currently a state-wide officeholder in GA? She currently runs a charity and the Democrats are hoping that the Republican primary is going to be a mess. Keeping in mind that the Republican primary features Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey, and Karen Handel, it's something of a safe bet that it'll be a mess. The race should still be counted as a likely Republican win.
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Jul 23, 2013 01:35
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Peztopiary posted:I wondered about the timing, and then it occurred to me that if she wants her father to be around to see it (and to help) she has to do it quickly. I can't think of any other reason to annoy Enzi. She could probably have waited him out without the time crunch of Dick Cheney being 73 with a bad ticker. 79 is getting pretty creaky to be campaigning. Isn't Dick Cheney immortal?
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Jul 23, 2013 01:48
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Gabriel Gomez would like to be elected to something, please and he'll take whatever you've got, Massachusetts. Maybe challenge Ed Markey for the Senate again, maybe State Treasurer. Worcester County Register of Wills? Sure, why not?
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Jul 23, 2013 14:36
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Joementum posted:Gabriel Gomez would like to be elected to something, please and he'll take whatever you've got, Massachusetts. Maybe challenge Ed Markey for the Senate again, maybe State Treasurer. Worcester County Register of Wills? Sure, why not?
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Jul 23, 2013 15:08
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Joementum posted:Gabriel Gomez would like to be elected to something, please and he'll take whatever you've got, Massachusetts. Maybe challenge Ed Markey for the Senate again, maybe State Treasurer. Worcester County Register of Wills? Sure, why not? I knew we hadn't seen the last of this fucker. Maybe he'll challenge Scott Brown for the gubernatorial nomination in 2014.
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Jul 23, 2013 15:22
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Alter Ego posted:I knew we hadn't seen the last of this fucker. Maybe he'll challenge Scott Brown for the gubernatorial nomination in 2014. Why would future New Hampshire Senator Scott Brown run in Massachusetts? As we know he has so much family in New Hampshire its clearly his home state. The Democrats are going to crush whatever joke loser candidate the Republicans put up for Governor, whether it be Gomez, Tisei, Baker or some other perennial loser.
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Jul 23, 2013 16:21
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ufarn posted:Is there something in the drinking water that makes Republican Massholes rabid with reality-defying ambition? Only the same water that the Utah Democrats drink.
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Jul 23, 2013 16:44
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Let me tell you, there is something in the water in Massachusetts, and it only occasionally doesn't create rabid reality defying liberalism. See: Elizabeth Warren.
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Jul 23, 2013 17:05
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Alter Ego posted:I knew we hadn't seen the last of this fucker. Maybe he'll challenge Scott Brown for the gubernatorial nomination in 2014. The primary could be held at a Ford dealership. Think of the sponsorship tie-ins!
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Jul 23, 2013 17:17
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Soooo, how about that Weiner?Cheekio posted:Let me tell you, there is something in the water in Massachusetts, and it only occasionally doesn't create rabid reality defying liberalism. See: Elizabeth Warren. As one of those who didn't think she'd be able to make her voice heard, once elected, I think she's been doing a bang-up job of getting the word out about economic injustice and things like student loans.
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Jul 24, 2013 00:37
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Interesting article by Charlie Cook over at the NJ, about some recent polling:quote:The possibility of a shift among older voters is something to be watched carefully. Exit polls show that in the 2010 GOP wave election, seniors voted by a 21-point margin in favor of Republicans for Congress, 59 percent to 38 percent; in 2012, a better year for Democrats, seniors voted Republican by just a 12-point margin, 56 percent to 44 percent. A January poll by Greenberg’s firm showed a similar 11-point Republican margin, but a survey in March indicated the GOP advantage had dropped to only 6 points, 47 percent to 41 percent. This new survey pegged it at 5 points, 46 percent to 41 percent. It is far too early to point to some seismic shift among older voters, but this is something that should be watched over the next 15 months. A declining Republican plurality among seniors could be a very big story for 2014.
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Jul 24, 2013 01:43
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The Landstander posted:Also, the extremism of North Carolina's state legislature is probably helping to boost up Kay Hagan a bit - Sherrod Brown had a similar boost from Kasich's anti-union law and the subsequent backlash in 2011. Considering that the Speaker of the NC House is the likely nominee at this point, I have a feeling it'll be less of a tossup than originally though. However, with new Super Double Stuffd Voter Suppression Laws in NC, I have no clue what the electorate there will look like. Not to mention, the masterful GOP gerrymander will probably make sure that the GOP keeps a supermajority even if they lose the statewide popular vote like in 2012, so the GOP could get fewer votes and still stay "The people support the Common Sense McCrory Jobs Agenda to Stop Abortion and Ban Democrats!"
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Jul 24, 2013 02:18
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Joementum posted:Gabriel Gomez would like to be elected to something, please and he'll take whatever you've got, Massachusetts. Maybe challenge Ed Markey for the Senate again, maybe State Treasurer. Worcester County Register of Wills? Sure, why not? NRCC wants him to run against Bill Keating. What I am saying is Gabriel Gomez is a jerk.
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Jul 24, 2013 02:24
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Speaking of which, courtesy of GBS...quote:The Senate will consider substituted language for HB 589 on Tuesday afternoon. Among the dozens of changes, these are the most onerous for North Carolina voters: (emphasis mine)
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Jul 24, 2013 02:24
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In political oddities, Ex-Senator and Fox News Panelist and Not a Lobbyist Evan Bayh has more funds in his campaign coffers than most of the incumbent US Senators. Bayh is one of several ex-Congresscritters hoarding their campaign funds, but he by far has the biggest war chest. Probably because Bayh exited the 2010 elections suddenly about a week before the primary, and before then, everyone assumed he'd either run for re-election or re-run for Governor of Indiana. After a sanctimonious speech about how toxic DC has become as he left the Senate, he took up lobbying positions at law firms and became a Fox News contributor.
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Jul 24, 2013 02:29
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^^^ Bayh is a Lieberman-quality Democrat, so that's not too surprisingDe Nomolos posted:However, with new Super Double Stuffd Voter Suppression Laws in NC, I have no clue what the electorate there will look like. I'm somewhat skeptical that the actual change in vote that these kinds of laws can bring can be overstated* - but if there's any electorate where it seems like it would be effective, the North Carolina Democratic coalition of black people and young college students seems like the place where it could do the most damage.  If someone has some data that shows NC is doomed/it's not bad in the kind of way, I'd be interested.Also, as Willa referenced, wrap it up Weinailures: quote:With his wife at his side, New York City mayoral candidate Anthony Weiner appeared at a hastily scheduled press conference Tuesday evening to address lewd photos and explicit online chats between him and a young woman that were released last night. Weiner stressed his past behavior was “behind” him and his wife even though the new batch of photos and chats occurred in 2012, over a year after he resigned from the House of Representatives due to other explicit online exchanges that became public. *note that I'm not trying to diminish how hosed up and reprehensible this legislation is, just the literal vote count at the end of the day
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Jul 24, 2013 02:38
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The Landstander posted:I'm somewhat skeptical that the actual change in vote that these kinds of laws can bring can be overstated* - but if there's any electorate where it seems like it would be effective, the North Carolina Democratic coalition of black people and young college students seems like the place where it could do the most damage. There's no way that Democrats can gain any sort of power at the state level without pulling some white voters back. The way the lines are drawn, even a Dem Governor is assured to face a General Assembly with a disproportionate number of white majority and elderly districts, due to the rural/urban divide and the general nature of gerrymandering. The only way to make some sort of dent would be to end the supermajority and elect a Democratic gov. in 2016. The former requires winning back more than the Obama Coalition, so they're going to kinda be forced to go beyond that black/college alliance anyway.
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Jul 24, 2013 02:44
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In Michigan I think it's possible we will pull some older voters away from the Republicans. They're hopping mad about pensions being taxed now. Snyder also eliminated the property tax credit for most people along with some other significant tax credits like the EIC and the child exemption. Essentially, if you're poor, old or still a member of the middle class your state taxes took a huge hit this year.
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Jul 24, 2013 02:50
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The Landstander posted:Also, as Willa referenced, wrap it up Weinailures: He's now saying that he warned everyone that more dirt would come out when he announced his mayoral bid, but the extent to which he's shown bad judgment pre- and post-resignation is probably gonna destroy him--especially representing a party that brands itself as valiantly fighting a war on women. I think that if he doesn't drop out then party leaders will force him out (as they did with his rep seat in Congress). He's asking for "a second chance" but he's way beyond that point now. The actual tweets from 2012 are vulgar enough that he'd better go find a nice non-profit to work for and abandon the idea of resurrecting his political career until he's aged out of being a crazed horndog.
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Jul 24, 2013 03:06
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De Nomolos posted:The only way to make some sort of dent would be to end the supermajority and elect a Democratic gov. in 2016. The former requires winning back more than the Obama Coalition, so they're going to kinda be forced to go beyond that black/college alliance anyway. Oh yeah, the districts make that completely necessary - I was just saying that if the voter ID laws affect anyone, it's disproportionately those two groups. I was thinking more about Hagan specifically. Willa Rogers posted:He's asking for "a second chance" but he's way beyond that point now. The actual tweets from 2012 are vulgar enough that he'd better go find a nice non-profit to work for and abandon the idea of resurrecting his political career until he's aged out of being a crazed horndog. The entire method of dealing with the scandal has been a pure "second chance" narrative, which just completely falls apart now. He'll stay in and keep trying, but I think the party doesn't want this at all - and it's not like the rest of the Democratic primary field is unacceptable, he's not the only choice. And I honestly thought he might've won, too. Anyone else watch House of Cards? Reminds me a bit of Peter Russo relapsing 
The Landstander fucked around with this message at 03:16 on Jul 24, 2013 |
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Jul 24, 2013 03:09
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I'm just curious about how badly the NC style regressive behavior will affect senior citizens. Might cut in to some of that vote as well.
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Jul 24, 2013 03:15
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Willa Rogers posted:abandon the idea of resurrecting his political career until he's aged out of being a crazed horndog. Carlos Danger, crazed horndog sounds like a new cartoon character on Adult Swim.
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Jul 24, 2013 03:16
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Oh yah; that Carlos Danger nic's a great idea for someone repping the party trying to pass immigration reform, too.  vvv We finally found something on which we agree!
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Jul 24, 2013 03:17
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You know, getting caught doing that once is remarkably bad judgment. Getting caught doing it again after the first time...bad judgment doesn't quite cover it.
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Jul 24, 2013 03:18
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What I find bizarre is not that he kept doing it, but that he revealed who he was. Why in god's name would you ever do that? In his position?
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Jul 24, 2013 03:55
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Hubris, the major reason pols get caught in sex scandals in the first place.
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Jul 24, 2013 03:57
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Willa Rogers posted:Hubris, the major reason pols get caught in sex scandals in the first place. Yeah...but you'd think getting caught once would have punctured that.
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Jul 24, 2013 04:00
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