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It's just so sad to see the perfect storm again of increasing household debt and also people buying into the price can only go higher mindset. I suppose the only difference vs. the US bubble is Canadian banks have slightly better rainy day funds. Are the Canadian banks also following the same over leveraging trap similar to the US bubble? Sort of like how some companies burned by the bubbles such as Goldman Sachs were overleveraged at wild ratios such as 32:1.
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Sep 5, 2013 00:36
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| # ? May 10, 2024 16:28 |
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etalian posted:Canadian banks have slightly better rainy day funds. Yeah, it's called the taxpayer, via the CMHC. Also, Goldman Sachs is more powerful and rich beyond the dreams of avarice since the crisis.
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Sep 5, 2013 04:01
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Lexicon posted:Yeah, it's called the taxpayer, via the CMHC. So the finance system is basically Obi Wan Kenobi?
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Sep 5, 2013 04:30
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Just postin' a datapoint. http://business.financialpost.com/2013/09/05/canadas-two-largest-real-estate-markets-are-surging/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter quote:Housing-market data are showing few signs of a hard landing after warnings from economists and policy makers that a bubble may have been forming. Buyers have adjusted to tighter mortgage rules imposed last year, according to Diane Usher, president of the Toronto realtor group.
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Sep 5, 2013 16:01
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Cultural Imperial posted:Just postin' a datapoint. I liked the related article on the site: (Why real estate doomsayers continue to be wrong) http://business.financialpost.com/2013/09/04/canada-housing-doomsayers/
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Sep 5, 2013 16:09
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Ah, the president of the Toronto Realtor's Group says "markets surging" and "buy, you buy now"? Well, that sounds good to me!
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Sep 5, 2013 16:10
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Paper Mac posted:Ah, the president of the Toronto Realtor's Group says "markets surging" and "buy, you buy now"? Well, that sounds good to me! I loved his quote quote:James McKellar, academic director of the Program in Real Property at York University’s Schulich School of Business, predicts smooth waters ahead. His response to an admittedly leading question about a Canadian real estate bubble was met with, “There is no bubble so I don’t know how it can burst. Each time I share this view with the media, the story dies. So many journalists embark to prove an assumption that is false.” Later during a telephone conversation, he had more to say about journalism’s role. “The media has gone out of their way to tell people that the market is going to collapse,” McKellar says. “The good news is that the readers aren’t listening and people are still buying.” Prices can only get higher!
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Sep 5, 2013 16:12
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Why THIS Time is Way Different Than All The Other Times Canada's housing market is immune to mean reversion because of our powerful leader Stephen HArper. He is holding the economy like a wolf he is riding into battle. Also because we are immune to foreigners economic diseases. Look how white Stephen is. This represents his powerful anglo-saxon hairitage and his noble Ontarian upbringing. "Haha, you should totally buy my book," someone employed in the housing industry said to me, confirming this analysis.
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Sep 5, 2013 16:17
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Good news everyone! MLS says in Toronto we're all a bunch of nervous nellies! http://business.financialpost.com/2013/09/05/9-05-13-toronto-home-sales-jump-21-in-august-realtors-say/?__lsa=1880-df0d quote:Realtors say home sales in the Greater Toronto Area shot up 21% in August compared with last year, with strength in all major housing categories. The Toronto Real Estate Board says 7,569 residential transactions went through its MLS system last month, compared with 66,249 sales in August 2012. The average selling price for August 2013 was $503,094 — up almost 5.5% from $477,170 in August 2012. TREB spokesman Jason Mercer says that despite an increase in borrowing costs in the spring and summer, an average priced home in the GTA has remained affordable for a household earning an average income. With this in mind, tight market conditions are expected to promote continued price growth through the remainder of 2013,“ says Mercer, the board’s senior manager of market analysis. It seems like I'm reading articles twice a week now arguing against a housing bubble. That's as big an indicator of the bubble's existence as any other I've seen. e: There's three articles ON THIS PAGE that demonstrate what I'm talking about.
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Sep 5, 2013 16:32
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How do I figure out how big margin calls are on bank short positions
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Sep 5, 2013 16:38
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PK loving SUBBAN posted:Good news everyone! MLS says in Toronto we're all a bunch of nervous nellies! Nothing says affordable like having 5.7 for the median income to house price ratio in the GTA.
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Sep 5, 2013 16:39
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Why is the cost of housing going ever higher good?  Yeah, it's great for people who already own a home, but it requires a non-zero level of thought to realize starter homes costing a million bucks in Winnipeg means no one can afford houses.
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Sep 5, 2013 16:46
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Blade_of_tyshalle posted:Why is the cost of housing going ever higher good? Im actually beginning to suspect most of these people have been putting this spin on the housing market for long enough now that they actually believe in what they say. Logic is no longer even part of the equation.
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Sep 5, 2013 17:18
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Blade_of_tyshalle posted:Why is the cost of housing going ever higher good? Well it's good for real estate agents and banks. (Until the bubble bursts)
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Sep 5, 2013 17:20
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Blade_of_tyshalle posted:Why is the cost of housing going ever higher good? It's clearly not a societal good. No one would celebrate food or energy being hideously expensive (other than respective entrenched interests). Big downstream consequences (population growth, etc) will likely follow if we can't as a nation normalize things. Personally, I'd rather emigrate than shovel every last nickel I earn for the next 30 years towards some boomer and their offspring. Lexicon fucked around with this message at 17:34 on Sep 5, 2013 |
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Sep 5, 2013 17:28
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PK loving SUBBAN posted:Good news everyone! MLS says in Toronto we're all a bunch of nervous nellies! There's that word again: average. Very intentional why they are using that term. In short, because of this:  you end up with the average differing from the median by $20k+  The data is from 2001 per this link.
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Sep 5, 2013 19:03
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Lexicon posted:It's clearly not a societal good. No one would celebrate food or energy being hideously expensive (other than respective entrenched interests). It sort ties back into similar to the USA, Canada seems to pursuing a policy of appreciation not affordability by continuing to pump things such as the home loan credit supply. http://soberlook.com/2013/07/for-many-americans-rising-home-prices.html
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Sep 5, 2013 19:08
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 lol that's great 
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Sep 6, 2013 15:42
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oh and then there's this
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Sep 6, 2013 15:46
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I've been following this thread since its inception, and I really can't believe the regression hasn't started yet, but it must be coming soon. How do you guys recommend taking a short position in all this? I don't own a home, but have some mutual fund investments which I'd like to (partially) use to take a short position against it. I've looked at hedge funds like Hyphen Partners LP but it doesn't look like you can just jump in on it. Any suggestions?
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Sep 6, 2013 15:56
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Corrupt Cypher posted:I've been following this thread since its inception, and I really can't believe the regression hasn't started yet, but it must be coming soon. Don't. The market can remain irrational for much longer than you can remain solvent and the likelihood is that those who have the money to burn have already occupied any positions with a potential for meaningful profit.
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Sep 6, 2013 16:04
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Shifty Pony posted:Don't. The market can remain irrational for much longer than you can remain solvent and the likelihood is that those who have the money to burn have already occupied any positions with a potential for meaningful profit. Yeah, I've discussed this at length with my investor neighbour and that was the exact quote he used. drat Keynes. But how do you look at a stock like this http://www.canadastockchannel.com/symbol/hcg.ca/ and not see the potential to make a boatload if/when poo poo hits the fan?
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Sep 6, 2013 16:29
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Corrupt Cypher posted:Yeah, I've discussed this at length with my investor neighbour and that was the exact quote he used. drat Keynes. I have been watching that for a year now as a potential short. Luckily I haven't bothered as I would have lost my shirt on what should be a sure bet. Maybe it will be a sure bet over the next 6-12 months, or maybe things will remain irrational for a bit longer yet. I'm keeping my money off the table.
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Sep 6, 2013 16:51
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Shorting is hard. It was obvious to me in 2008/2009 at the height of RIM's hubris and financial success that they were utterly doomed. But they were flying high for another few years. It's timing the downfall that's hard - and the irrationality/solvency thing is what gets you.
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Sep 6, 2013 17:01
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Thanks guys, I really appreciate the input. I might still jump on it but it will be a small bet, something I'd be OK with losing given the perceived huge upside. What sort of investments do you guys keep your money in then if you're confident this bubble will burst eventually? Right now the financial adviser I have recommended a low risk mutual fund that had a bunch of its value tied up in Canadian banking and I'm looking to get away from it. I was thinking American bonds or *gasp* even American equities.
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Sep 6, 2013 17:47
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I've been dumping all my cash into american stocks. I don't know how old you are, but if you're under 30, you should definitely be taking on more risk.
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Sep 6, 2013 17:51
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Corrupt Cypher posted:Thanks guys, I really appreciate the input. I might still jump on it but it will be a small bet, something I'd be OK with losing given the perceived huge upside. If you're serious about doing this, ask yourself what sectors stand to lose the most and short them. Construction, lumber and building supply stores seem like good places to start.
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Sep 6, 2013 17:53
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Corrupt Cypher posted:What sort of investments do you guys keep your money in then if you're confident this bubble will burst eventually? Mostly index funds - with fairly heavy US and international weighting. I'm a huge, huge proponent and advocate of Couch Potato Investing. We're already highly exposed to Canadian risk by virtue of living and working here - so, modulo tax benefits from some domestic investments, I tend to favour investing externally. We should probably start a Canadian investing thread. Primarily a place to discuss avoiding the various ripoffs employed by our beloved financial institutions.
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Sep 6, 2013 18:03
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Cultural Imperial posted:I've been dumping all my cash into american stocks. 24, just finished paying off my student loans. Saving about 50% of my income, soon to be more like 70%. So yeah, I'm pretty drat risk tolerant right now. PK loving SUBBAN posted:If you're serious about doing this, ask yourself what sectors stand to lose the most and short them. Construction, lumber and building supply stores seem like good places to start. I like the lumber idea. Also, that's the greatest username/avatar combo I've ever seen on these forums. Clapclap! Lexicon posted:Mostly index funds - with fairly heavy US and international weighting. I'm a huge, huge proponent and advocate of Couch Potato Investing. We're already highly exposed to Canadian risk by virtue of living and working here - so, modulo tax benefits from some domestic investments, I tend to favour investing externally. That site looks pretty neat! Right now I have a TFSA with limited $ in it with Investors Group (long story short, friend's gf got a job there and I wanted to help her out) but I am definitely skeptical of having them handle my assets. A Canada specific investment thread sounds very cool!
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Sep 6, 2013 18:19
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Corrupt Cypher posted:I am definitely skeptical of having them handle my assets. You should be. They are robber barons, and not that competent to boot. Corrupt Cypher posted:A Canada specific investment thread sounds very cool! Cool; I'll try to set it up sometime this weekend unless someone beats me to it.
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Sep 6, 2013 18:29
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I'd be pretty interested in that too. I just started 'seriously' investing and we have a pretty good "guy" handling it for us but I actually don't know poo poo.
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Sep 6, 2013 19:43
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Shifty Pony posted:There's that word again: average. Very intentional why they are using that term. The thing is, they're using averages for the house prices as well. Fortunately, you can dig up the actual median Toronto price in this document from the Tornot Real Estate Board (pdf). It's $431,000 for August 2013. The last figures on Toronto median household income are from 2010, and put it at $68,110 (it may be higher in 2013, but probably not by much). So the median house price to median income ratio for Toronto is probably about 6.3 (maybe 6 if you adjust for income increases since 2010).
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Sep 7, 2013 23:33
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Lead out in cuffs posted:The thing is, they're using averages for the house prices as well. Fortunately, you can dig up the actual median Toronto price in this document from the Tornot Real Estate Board (pdf). It's $431,000 for August 2013. The last figures on Toronto median household income are from 2010, and put it at $68,110 (it may be higher in 2013, but probably not by much). So the median house price to median income ratio for Toronto is probably about 6.3 (maybe 6 if you adjust for income increases since 2010). Department of Numbers had a nice megatable for US states, only California, DC or Hawaii equal/exceed the GTA affordability index. http://www.deptofnumbers.com/affordability/states/ RBC also had a report here on home affordability by province: http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/pdf/HA-0225-2013.pdf (find the BC graph for a good laugh)
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Sep 7, 2013 23:55
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Hey hey hey, it's schadenfreude Sunday! http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/vancouver-condo-buyers-take-a-second-look/article14162513/?service=print quote:Derek Hynes was thinking like a lot of Vancouverites when he purchased his one-bedroom condo in one of Surrey’s new towers. He thought its value would rise each year, enough to make the purchase an investment in his future. He’d build equity until he had enough to purchase a bigger place, maybe even the down payment on a house. SOMEHOW THIS MARKET KEEP GOING
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Sep 8, 2013 23:36
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I'm curious in Canada is there a capital gain tax exemption for home sales similar to the USA? In the US a joint filing couple can get a $500,000 escape from having to pay federal capital gain taxes assuming you meet the primary residence requirement.
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Sep 9, 2013 00:07
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etalian posted:I'm curious in Canada is there a capital gain tax exemption for home sales similar to the USA? Yeah, you are exempt from capital gains tax on your primary residence, afaik. You are also exempt on the gains from where you lie about living until they catch you.
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Sep 9, 2013 00:09
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etalian posted:I'm curious in Canada is there a capital gain tax exemption for home sales similar to the USA? Yup. http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/ndvdls/tpcs/ncm-tx/rtrn/cmpltng/rprtng-ncm/lns101-170/127/rsdnc/menu-eng.html But the CRA is starting to crack down on people who abuse this claim. http://business.financialpost.com/2013/04/20/get-ready-to-pay-income-tax-on-your-condo-profit/ uh oh
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Sep 9, 2013 00:10
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ocrumsprug posted:Yeah, you are exempt from capital gains tax on your primary residence, afaik. Is it capped similar to the US tax system?
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Sep 9, 2013 00:10
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etalian posted:Is it capped similar to the US tax system? Knowing Canada, probably not.
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Sep 9, 2013 00:15
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Here's an unlikely testament to a turning real estate market, from the Building industry and land development association: https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/377450758154645504 Linked from Ben Rabidoux's twitter. http://www.bildgta.ca/BILD/uploaded...cil_Package.pdf quote:Currently, the development charge rate for a 2 bedroom unit is $12,412. The City’s original Like Ben says, 'keep taxes low so we can keep our sweet 30% margin pls'
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Sep 10, 2013 17:47
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