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ThirdPartyView posted:Didn't Merkel basically tell people to vote for the CDU/CSU and not the FDP? Kind of the other way around. The FDP was fishing for CDU votes to make sure they get over the 5% hurdle, but the CDU pretty much told them to get hosed. As for why the FDP is so unpopular now, they promised sweeping tax cuts before the last election but when they actually got in it of course turned out that they were unaffordable. If I remember correctly, the thing they did push for the most were cuts benefitting mostly hotels and pensions, who incidentally just so happened to be among their biggest donors. Perestroika fucked around with this message at 20:44 on Sep 22, 2013 |
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Sep 22, 2013 20:27
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elbkaida posted:I think them getting so many votes last time was just lucky and the fact that a lot of people ran away from the two big parties.
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Sep 22, 2013 20:35
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frankenfreak posted:While there was a movement to the smaller parties in 2009, the FDP also ran a clever campaign, telling people that a vote for the FDP is the only way to get rid of the unpopular Grand Coalition and keep Merkel. That, plus I think their long (by their standards) stint in the opposition didn't help them either. Instead of being the party that (allegedly) keeps the CDU/SPD from eating small business alive on a day to day basis, all of a sudden they started being very heavy on the social/civil liberties, sort of like a more established Piraten. There was stuff like the Vorratsdatenspeicherung law in 2007 where the FDP voted against it alongside Die Linke and the Greens, or the JuLis pushing for legalization of marijuana, and a bunch of other stuff I'm forgetting right now that led to the situation in 2009 where a couple of otherwise normal people I know strongly considered voting for the FDP (but went with the Piraten in the end). Of course when they got back into the government, it turned out that they don't actually give too much of a poo poo about any of that stuff, or are too powerless vis à vis the CDU to do anything about it. That disappointment alone probably wasn't enough to kill them, but others have already mentioned other factors. fake edit: oh my God, there's a guy in a Ron Paul shirt in the audience on Günther Jauch's show. Töte deine Eltern.
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Sep 22, 2013 20:53
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Holy poo poo, you guys should check out the reactions by AfD voters at FAZ.net. There is so much butthurt and tinfoil, especially because 4,9% is clearly too close and there's a huge conspiracy going on. My cup runneth over. Also, Merkel seems reasonably happy with the result:  
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Sep 22, 2013 20:56
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Smirr posted:fake edit: oh my God, there's a guy in a Ron Paul shirt in the audience on Günther Jauch's show. Töte deine Eltern. Slightly related joke: What's the difference between the FDP and a Smart? The Smart has two seats.
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Sep 22, 2013 20:57
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parrhesia posted:Also, Merkel seems reasonably happy with the result:  "Go hog wild? Don't mind if I do!"
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Sep 22, 2013 21:11
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Why are so many AfD voters apparently defecting from die Linke of all people?
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Sep 22, 2013 22:10
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If the CDU intend to kill the greens before they grow into a major party they should definitely form a black-green coalition.
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Sep 22, 2013 22:13
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Zohar posted:Why are so many AfD voters apparently defecting from die Linke of all people? Sticking it to the man by voting.
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Sep 22, 2013 22:15
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FDP on 4,9%. The reports of their death may have been greatly exaggerated.
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Sep 22, 2013 22:28
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Zohar posted:Why are so many AfD voters apparently defecting from die Linke of all people? The AfD also got noticeably more votes in the east (proportionally), so it's protest votes going to newest protest party.
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Sep 22, 2013 22:36
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The ARD numbers add up to 42.8% for SPD, Greens, Linke combined (1% more than the CDU). Assuming neither FDP nor AfD make it -I take it everyone out of CDU, SPD and Greens would rather go for CDU+SPD or CDU+Greens than Red-Red-Green? Edit: I just remembered this isn't simply about percentages, but about seats. Please, nobody explain the system to me again, I just had a minor brain fart. Cingulate fucked around with this message at 22:45 on Sep 22, 2013 |
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Sep 22, 2013 22:42
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Sincerely hoping FDP get in or CDU get an absolute majority. Having Greens or Die Linke (god forbid both) in the government is going to be a disaster.
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Sep 22, 2013 22:45
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Cingulate posted:The ARD numbers add up to 42.8% for SPD, Greens, Linke combined (1% more than the CDU). Assuming neither FDP nor AfD make it -I take it everyone out of CDU, SPD and Greens would rather go for CDU+SPD or CDU+Greens than Red-Red-Green? This seems to suggest no red red green. http://www.heute.de/Merkel-braucht-neuen-Partner-29863712.html quote:SPD-Chef Gabriel schloss eine Koalition mit der Linken erneut aus: "Im Jahr 2013 und in der folgenden Legislaturperiode wird es keine Zusammenarbeit geben", sagte Gabriel im ZDF heute-journal.
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Sep 22, 2013 22:45
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Red-red-green's at 305 seats (to 301 for the CDU) according to this: http://www.heute.de/Merkel-braucht-neuen-Partner-29863712.html And there's gonna be neither a great coalition, no black-green, and nobody wants to do anything with the Linke, so the only other option is a CDU minority ... according to this: http://www.heute.de/Merkel-Keine-Fehler-bei-der-Zweitstimme-29867036.html
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Sep 22, 2013 22:49
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There is a left majority in this country and we will get a conservative/centrist government... poo poo sucks.
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Sep 22, 2013 22:53
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Welllll, Angie was wearing a black-green necklace today....
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Sep 22, 2013 22:53
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KaneTW posted:Sincerely hoping FDP get in or CDU get an absolute majority.
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Sep 22, 2013 22:56
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Lucy Heartfilia posted:There is a left majority in this country and we will get a conservative/centrist government... poo poo sucks. A parliamentary majority maybe, but why would you do that instead of total votes? And going by that, isn't the majority of votes (counting parties that didn't make the 5% cut) more than 50% centre-right/right?
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Sep 22, 2013 22:59
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Ok, that's true.
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Sep 22, 2013 23:00
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Well, at least Merkel is not going to live forever. She is 59, 63 when the next term is over. Life expectancy for women is apparently 83 at the moment, so hoping for an average life she can at most be chancellor for another 20 years... One thing that needs to happen is for the SPD and Greens to consider the Left party, and for the left to jettison some of their more outlandish positions and become a serious party capable to govern (like it is in many East German states). Also newest numbers: FDP 4.8%, thus more votes than the AfD at 4.7%. Greens third strongest party at 8.5%, Die Linke behind at 8.4%.
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Sep 22, 2013 23:05
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Looks like I won't have to nag my partner to flee to Canada this election cycle! I'm not pleased with how the seats seem to be working out for now, though. Last I looked, it was 302 for Rot-Rot-Gruen[1] and 296 for the Union. Too narrow a margin and die Linke would never go for it anyway.  [1] I don't know how to make umlauts on this loving keyboard weavernaut fucked around with this message at 23:27 on Sep 22, 2013 |
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Sep 22, 2013 23:13
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Air is lava! posted:I wasn't all that happy about the offers. My personal core issue (a sane and extensive use of nuclear energy) was adressed pretty much nowhere. To be frank, that was the only reason I actually voted SchwarzGelb 4 years ago. Didn't help that much in that regard... Same here. Not of voting age for the last round, but I would have gritted my teeth and voted Schwarz-Gelb (so that we do our part in contributing to not-completely-loving-the-planet  ) with the plan of voting them out (because gently caress their economical and social policies) once loads of nuclear power plants were a fait accompli and not preventable by NIMBYs and assorted idiots anymore.Since they didn't even do that, I gritted my teeth slightly less and voted SPD. frankenfreak posted:The AfD also got noticeably more votes in the east (proportionally), so it's protest votes going to newest protest party. Also true in other regions. In Bavaria, it's also the Freie Wähler. Wenigstens kein Filz (war aber wohl ne dumme Idee) is the sentiment I've heard from some of their voters. At least the protest votes are not going to the NPD  V. Illych L. posted:Yeah, France is weird. I just felt I should include it since that's the major country that's been going against the prevailing liberal-conservative trend in Europe. Vive la France  gently caress it why am I not going there but to Britain for the next couple of years...
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Sep 22, 2013 23:19
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I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!
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weavernaut posted:Looks like I won't have to nag my partner to flee to Canada this election cycle! It's the SPD that won't go in for a red-red(-green) coalition on the federal level, not die Linke. It's to my mind probably the biggest failing of the federal SPD. There are a lot more failings though, so gently caress 'em. I don't know if any of you guys are watching the district (Wahlkreis) results come in, but one of the most noticeable things is that die Linke is getting loving skinned with respect to first votes. They have so far managed to carry one (1) district, and that is Treptow-Köpenick, which is Gysi's district. I've lost count how many they've lost to the CDU by now, but it's got to be like 15. There's a lot of flipping to the CDU going on in general, but this is kind of unexpected. Oh wait, Marzahn-Hellersdorf and Pankow just came in and didn't flip either. So that's three direct candidates for die Linke now, compared to 16 in 2009.
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Sep 22, 2013 23:33
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Well, I sort of assumed die Linke would have enough integrity to refuse to ally with the SPD.  But yeah, no, even if the SPD stopped being bloody awful for a second, 302 isn't really enough of a majority to reliably pass poo poo, if three votes can make or break a vote.Blech.
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Sep 22, 2013 23:41
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So, what would be a nice country to emigrate to?
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Sep 22, 2013 23:46
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weavernaut posted:Well, I sort of assumed die Linke would have enough integrity to refuse to ally with the SPD. its either going to be a Great Coalition again, CDU/CSU + Grüne but then they [the Greens] would have to be braindead from all the marijuana to go along with that or a new election
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Sep 22, 2013 23:51
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Previously on GBS posted:So, what would be a nice country to emigrate to? Well, France is basically the only country in the past year or so that hasn't had the right win their elections.(Well, and America, but left wing is relative). You can't escape the rising tide of the right wing.
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Sep 23, 2013 00:00
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Amused to Death posted:Well, France is basically the only country in the past year or so that hasn't had the right win their elections
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Sep 23, 2013 00:03
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Why is the SPD so loving pitiful?
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Sep 23, 2013 00:15
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Cingulate posted:Italy? Perhaps, it's a tenuous win at best though helped along by Italy's "Hey, you won a plurality of 0.4%, so here's a majority of seats" system and also relies on whether Grillo's party is considered left-wing or not(I have no idea) since they won 25%. So if Merkel has to form a minority government, would it actually be able to serve out a full term or would it be too weak? Amused to Death fucked around with this message at 00:20 on Sep 23, 2013 |
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Sep 23, 2013 00:16
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Amused to Death posted:Well, France is basically the only country in the past year or so that hasn't had the right win their elections.(Well, and America, but left wing is relative). You can't escape the rising tide of the right wing. On the other hand France has had these chucklefucks pull off huge demonstrations in opposition to same-sex marriage, and this lady get 17.9% in the presidential elections last year, so while the right might not be winning elections just yet, it's not exactly a leftist country either. But I don't think anyone needs to move away from Germany because of this election just yet anyway. Our collective Merkel boner is starting to get a little frightening, but if you've been able to live here these past 8 years, I think you'll be fine. Just wait until it comes out that Merkel has been plagiarizing her pantsuits or something, I don't know.
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Sep 23, 2013 00:17
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Smirr posted:But I don't think anyone needs to move away from Germany because of this election just yet anyway. Our collective Merkel boner is starting to get a little frightening, but if you've been able to live here these past 8 years, I think you'll be fine. Just wait until it comes out that Merkel has been plagiarizing her pantsuits or something, I don't know. Short of Merkel removing her face like a mask and revealing she was Hitler all along, I don't think there's anything that would make her go anywhere for the foreseeable future.
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Sep 23, 2013 00:29
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I dunno, she's getting on in years.
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Sep 23, 2013 00:43
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weavernaut posted:I dunno, she's getting on in years. Well 59, so only another 15 years or so until she probably decides to retire.
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Sep 23, 2013 00:46
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A red-red-green coalition would be the most transparent "anyone but Merkel" coalition imaginable and would shatter at the first test, whatever that may be. The greens are always volatile and Die Linke enjoyed their hardcore opposition stance far too much. Blaming the SPD for not wanting to form a coalition with a margin of three votes where they have the option of either surrendering completely to the most radical of partners or look like complete chumps when their government collapses after six months is stupid, sorry.
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Sep 23, 2013 00:49
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Yeah, Die Linke are so loving radical.  (I am biased, they're the biggest party that get anywhere close to my actual views.)
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Sep 23, 2013 00:53
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ArchangeI posted:A red-red-green coalition would be the most transparent "anyone but Merkel" coalition imaginable and would shatter at the first test, whatever that may be. The greens are always volatile and Die Linke enjoyed their hardcore opposition stance far too much. Blaming the SPD for not wanting to form a coalition with a margin of three votes where they have the option of either surrendering completely to the most radical of partners or look like complete chumps when their government collapses after six months is stupid, sorry. Just to be clear, when I was bitching about the SPD about refusing coalitions with die Linke I wasn't talking about this specific outcome, where it really would be suicide to go for red-red-green, I was talking about their stance in general. Now that all of the results are in, we can play a game. Take a guess which districts had a comparatively strong showing for the FDP (second votes), and then check your guesses against the answers: Düsseldorf I, 9,2% Main-Taunus, 8,6%. Which is, coincidentally I'm sure, the setting of this article Bonn, 8,5% Various districts in Munich and Munich-Land, 8,2%-8,5% Rhein-Sieg-Kreis II, around Bonn, 8,3% Stuttgart I, 8,3% Cologne II, 8,1% EAT THE RICH Let's just sell off all those places to Luxembourg and start over as a country.
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Sep 23, 2013 01:25
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weavernaut posted:Yeah, Die Linke are so loving radical. There still is bad blood from the SPD/WASG split on both sides. And the experiences of Kraft's minority government in NRW are probably not going to help convincing the SPD in relying on the Linke either. On the semantic side of things, yes, Die Linke is radical, because they aim for great structural changes.
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Sep 23, 2013 01:58
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Man, so can all the FDP posters near my apartment saying "Mehr Mut, Mehr Markt, Mehr Freiheit, Nur mit uns" go down now, along with all the NPD posters (okay, I've only seen numerous amounts of the latter in Oranienburg and Treptow)? On another note, on the bus back to Berlin from Munich yesterday, I saw a Republicans poster with a noose. Made me cringe as an American. Smirr posted:That, plus I think their long (by their standards) stint in the opposition didn't help them either. Instead of being the party that (allegedly) keeps the CDU/SPD from eating small business alive on a day to day basis, all of a sudden they started being very heavy on the social/civil liberties, sort of like a more established Piraten. There was stuff like the Vorratsdatenspeicherung law in 2007 where the FDP voted against it alongside Die Linke and the Greens, or the JuLis pushing for legalization of marijuana, and a bunch of other stuff I'm forgetting right now that led to the situation in 2009 where a couple of otherwise normal people I know strongly considered voting for the FDP (but went with the Piraten in the end). Of course when they got back into the government, it turned out that they don't actually give too much of a poo poo about any of that stuff, or are too powerless vis à vis the CDU to do anything about it. That disappointment alone probably wasn't enough to kill them, but others have already mentioned other factors. Seeing the "Mehr Mut, Mehr Markt, Mehr Freiheit" signs around Steglitz always gave me the impression the FDP were the libertarian party. Jerry Manderbilt fucked around with this message at 07:54 on Sep 23, 2013 |
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Sep 23, 2013 07:52
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