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DynamicSloth posted:Which isn't going to offer much help against Hillary in a Primary. Hillary finished third in Iowa in 2008. She is quite beatable there if the stars align correctly.
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Oct 31, 2013 02:05
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jeffersonlives posted:Hillary finished third in Iowa in 2008. She is quite beatable there if the stars align correctly. Against anybody but the guy who got less than 1% of the vote there in his marginally more successful Presidential bid that might be valid spin.
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Oct 31, 2013 02:12
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DynamicSloth posted:Against anybody but the guy who got less than 1% of the vote there in his marginally more successful Presidential bid that might be valid spin. Biden raised a little over $8m in 2008. He'll be in the high eight or low nine figures in the primaries if he runs in 2016. Do you see the difference yet?
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Oct 31, 2013 02:15
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I'm also guessing Biden is going to have a lot easier time getting Iowa voters familiar with him what with having been VP for 8 years too. I'm skeptical that he can really compete at th same level as Hilary but to write him off as a candidate is silly. He's a strong candidate at this point and if Hilary weren't a factor here we might be talking about him like we do about Hilary now.
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Oct 31, 2013 02:22
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jeffersonlives posted:Biden raised a little over $8m in 2008. He'll be in the high eight or low nine figures in the primaries if he runs in 2016. Do you see the difference yet? I also wouldn't assume Biden is going to be as good a fundraiser as Obama or Clinton just because that's the new normal, good fundraisers become nominees not the other way around. Clinton's already out-raising and out organizing Biden today without being half as ostentatious about her candidacy. JoeCL posted:I'm also guessing Biden is going to have a lot easier time getting Iowa voters familiar with him what with having been VP for 8 years too. I'm skeptical that he can really compete at th same level as Hilary but to write him off as a candidate is silly. He's a strong candidate at this point and if Hilary weren't a factor here we might be talking about him like we do about Hilary now. I didn't write him off, if he want's to run again he'll have a very respectable Bradley level campaign but I take serious issue with the notion that he's the best retail politician in the party.
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Oct 31, 2013 02:26
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DynamicSloth posted:Yes, and he'd be up against one of those same candidates again. Joe Biden spent 95% of the year preceding his dropping out of the race losing (badly) to Hillary Clinton. As others have pointed out, the reality of the 2008 Democratic field was that the majority of the media spotlight went to Former First Lady Hillary Clinton, Former VP Candidate John Edwards, and Rising Star of the Party Barack Obama. Because those candidates came in and sort of automatically dominated the media spotlight just by the nature of who they are and how they fit into the media narrative. So it's hard for someone like Biden or Dodd or Richardson to get any free media attention, which makes it really hard to fundraise or raise awareness. This time, however, by virtue of being VP and there being a relative dearth of other top tier candidates he's likely to start out getting a large share of the spotlight, which can help propel fundraising. I still think he's a long-shot to beat Hillary though.
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Oct 31, 2013 03:23
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Chantilly Say posted:I was talking to someone about the Democratic prospects for 2016 and after we agreed that Hillary was the strongest contender for the top of the ticket we both realized we didn't really know who she would pick for VP in the event of her nomination. Has there been much speculation on who the strong prospects for that would be, or will we just not know enough until we see who performs well in the primary? I don't know about anyone else, but a Clinton/Castro ticket sounds really plausible to me.
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Oct 31, 2013 07:02
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For best results, don't announce which Castro, and then switch them out every once in a while to keep people on their toes.
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Oct 31, 2013 07:28
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crowfeathers posted:For best results, don't announce which Castro, and then switch them out every once in a while to keep people on their toes. I can already see the Fwd: Fwd: Fwd: Hillary to sneak in fellow communist Raul Castro as VP?!?!? emails being written. e: Alternatively, one could say that may not be the best idea since a similar thing may have lost Julian the mayoral election in 2005. Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 08:13 on Oct 31, 2013 |
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Oct 31, 2013 08:10
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Continuing with Wikipediagate, a journalist asks Rand Paul about the plagiarism allegations and he spouts nonsense about citing the movies themselves (and not, y'know, the Wikipedia text he lifted), about how speeches don't have footnotes, about having several writers contribute to his speeches (which suggests he doesn't do a good enough job of going over them), and about how Rachel Maddow is a hater. Oh, Aqua Buddha, you are almost as bad at rear end-covering as your old man is. 
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Oct 31, 2013 10:52
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I don't think anybody questions that Ted Cruz is going to run in 2016 and being elected to Senate just gave him a two year head start on campaigning for the job. David Corn at Mother Jones has this article today that says if you want to understand Cruz's politics then all you have to do is listen to his dad, Rafael Cruz. The article is a compilation of Rafael Cruz's greatest hits from his speeches and appearances over the past couple of years and paints a picture of an evangelical dominionist and historical revisionist. quote:At the least, Cruz ought to have to explain whether he shares the more extreme views of his No. 1 surrogate. Asked to comment on Rafael Cruz's remarks—particularly his statement that the United States is a "Christian nation" and his call for Obama to be shipped back to Kenya—Sen. Cruz's office requested citations for these quotes. After receiving the citations, Sean Rushton, a spokesperson for Cruz, replied, "These selective quotes, taken out of context, mischaracterize the substance of Pastor Cruz's message. Like many Americans, he feels America is on the wrong track." Rushton added, "Pastor Cruz does not speak for the senator." Corn's story follows an August, 2013, story done by Robert Costa at National Review on the elder Cruz. I think it's interesting that these two stories from different political view points both paint a picture of Ted Cruz being so dependent on his dad as a political surrogate, especially this far out from 2016.
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Oct 31, 2013 14:14
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Adar posted:e: that said there's definitely a chance that Hillary and Joe wind up in a room one day soon and the first person to walk out of it is the only one to run. It's just that there is also a significant chance the other will be dead.
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Oct 31, 2013 17:38
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Joementum posted:Of those people, only Al Gore ran a primary campaign. I would've voted for you 
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Oct 31, 2013 18:09
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Zero_Grade posted:I'm picturing the classic Fredric Brown story "Arena", only with those two. Biden is clearly the one that builds the catapult because I don't think Hillary knows how to play dead.
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Oct 31, 2013 18:25
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Jokes aside, Biden and Clinton are close enough that they're absolutely going to sit in a room and try to figure things out (the first meeting towards this goal has already happened), but I'm really skeptical that they're actually going to succeed unless one of them is physically or mentally just not up to it (which given their respective ages is quite possible, granted).
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Oct 31, 2013 18:34
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jeffersonlives posted:Jokes aside, Biden and Clinton are close enough that they're absolutely going to sit in a room and try to figure things out (the first meeting towards this goal has already happened), but I'm really skeptical that they're actually going to succeed unless one of them is physically or mentally just not up to it (which given their respective ages is quite possible, granted). Or Biden realizes he wants to actually be allowed to drive his cars again. (Secret service won't let him apparently)
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Oct 31, 2013 18:50
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jeffersonlives posted:Jokes aside, Biden and Clinton are close enough that they're absolutely going to sit in a room and try to figure things out (the first meeting towards this goal has already happened), but I'm really skeptical that they're actually going to succeed unless one of them is physically or mentally just not up to it (which given their respective ages is quite possible, granted). Each has recently made a couple oblique snipes at the other, which suggests to me they're both feeling out the seriousness of each other's intentions. Once they've got a better read, I suspect there will be a sit-down moment between them, possibly though not likely including Obama himself, in an attempt to avoid casting aside the (for now) inherent strengths of the Democratic party for 2016.
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Oct 31, 2013 18:52
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jeffersonlives posted:Jokes aside, Biden and Clinton are close enough that they're absolutely going to sit in a room and try to figure things out (the first meeting towards this goal has already happened), but I'm really skeptical that they're actually going to succeed unless one of them is physically or mentally just not up to it (which given their respective ages is quite possible, granted). If the Presidency is one's life ambition (as it generally is), I've got to imagine it's pretty tough to sacrifice that for someone you're close to. I mean, that's the sort of sacrifice people usually only make for their spouse, child, or immediate family, right?
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Oct 31, 2013 19:14
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Captain_Maclaine posted:Each has recently made a couple oblique snipes at the other, which suggests to me they're both feeling out the seriousness of each other's intentions. Once they've got a better read, I suspect there will be a sit-down moment between them, possibly though not likely including Obama himself, in an attempt to avoid casting aside the (for now) inherent strengths of the Democratic party for 2016. If it looks like the Tea Party will go full retard and force Republicans to nominate Ted Cruz or Rand Paul, I'd imagine that Democrats will do their best to quell anything that even smells like primary infighting.
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Oct 31, 2013 19:16
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Just gotta say again, if Biden accepts the vice president position again and the ticket wins, he'd make history as the first three term vice president ever.
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Oct 31, 2013 19:25
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Bodhidharma posted:I don't know about anyone else, but a Clinton/Castro ticket sounds really plausible to me. For proof, here's a tweet Castro wrote: https://twitter.com/juliancastrotx/status/195664754616971265 Julian Castro posted:@Rivardreport That's an easy one, Bob. I'll be mayor through May 2017, if the voters will have me. Zero interest in Washington. 
fade5 fucked around with this message at 19:57 on Oct 31, 2013 |
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Oct 31, 2013 19:54
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fade5 posted:This has been speculated about before, but unfortunately, it's it not going to happen; Castro's said he's planning to stay as mayor of San Antonio for another term after the current one, which would keep him as mayor until 2017. You know he has a twin brother, right?
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Oct 31, 2013 20:30
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Obama also said he wouldn't consider running for president until he'd served at least a full senate term.
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Oct 31, 2013 20:59
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radical meme posted:You know he has a twin brother, right?  When "Castro 2016" is brought up, it's because Julian (not Joaquin) gave that awesome speech at the 2012 Democratic convention; that's what catapulted him onto the national stage, and that's the Castro brother people are familiar with. Just because Joaquin is Julian's twin brother doesn't mean that Julian's fame will magically transfer to Joaquin; they're two separate people, with different desires and ambitions. Joaquin may not even want to be VP, he might be happy staying where he is. That said, they get my vote for whatever they're running for; as I noted I'm overjoyed at how they've done so far. (Provided of course that the Texas Republicans don't gently caress me over in the future by re-districting me out of Joaquin's district; luckily, the area I live in is predominately Hispanic, so I'm probably safe.)
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Oct 31, 2013 21:07
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On the other hand, ten years down the line we can have a Castro/Castro ticket and confuse everybody.
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Oct 31, 2013 21:11
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crowfeathers posted:On the other hand, ten years down the line we can have a Castro/Castro ticket and confuse everybody. And 10 years is also around the time Texas turns blue because of demographics.
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Oct 31, 2013 21:13
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Oh, one more thing to note: Joaquin Castro's district TX-20 was held by Henry B. González (D) from 1961-1999, and then by Henry's son Charlie Gonzalez (D) from 1999-2013. Charlie retired rather than run again, which let Joaquin win the District with no real opposition. This is actually tangentially related another clusterfuck: Lloyd Doggett's (D) old distinct, TX-25, was re-redistricted in 2012 to be heavily Republican by Perry, because Perry loving hates that Doggett is a very vocal Democrat and routinely calls Perry out on his Republican bullshit. Rather than lose in TX-25, Doggett decided to run in the newly created TX-35, which stretches from Northeast Austin to Southeast San Antonio. For a while it looked like it was going to be Joaquin Castro vs Lloyd Doggett for TX-35, which would mean the Republicans come out ahead: either Castro's up and coming status is squashed, or Perry wins and Doggett is no longer a Representative. Luckily, Charlie Gonzalez retired, which meant Joaquin won TX-20, and Doggett won TX-35. gently caress you Perry, Doggett won, and not only that, I can now claim Doggett as a San Antonio Representative. For reference, here's TX-35, San Antonio is in Bexar county, and Austin is in Travis county:  Don't you love gerrymandering? 
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Oct 31, 2013 21:36
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Fun fact: my representative also used to be Lloyd Doggett, but they gerrymandered a long strip right down my street into another district, so now it's some Republican rear end in a top hat I've literally never seen.
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Oct 31, 2013 21:43
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AllanGordon posted:If Hillary runs for the party nomination and no significant opposition pops up when would it be appropriate for her to announce her VP candidate? Also would there be any chance that Hillary would pick Warren for her VP? Why would she want to kneecap what is likely to be a fruitful Senate career? e: I really would like to see Warren run though, just to force Clinton to take a stance on financial regulation. A failed primary bid doesn't require her to give up her seat.
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Oct 31, 2013 22:37
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Game Change 2 does apparently confirm the longstanding rumor that the Obama team had the conversation about doing the 2012 Hillary to VP/Biden to SoS switch. They went so far as to focus group and poll on it. eta: Also somewhat confirms a longstanding rumor that it was Jon Huntsman who leaked the Romney tax thing to Harry Reid, except it was Jon Huntsman Sr., not the one who ran for president. oldfan fucked around with this message at 22:51 on Oct 31, 2013 |
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Oct 31, 2013 22:48
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jeffersonlives posted:Game Change 2 does apparently confirm the longstanding rumor that the Obama team had the conversation about doing the 2012 Hillary to VP/Biden to SoS switch. They went so far as to focus group and poll on it. It also mentions this relevant-to-a-2016-campaign bit about Christie: quote:According to a memo on Mr. Christie from the vetting team, it had unanswered questions on a defamation lawsuit against the governor from earlier in his political career, on a Securities and Exchange Commission settlement involving Mr. Christie’s brother, on names and documentation of his household help, on information from his time as a securities industry lobbyist, and on his medical history. “The dossier on the Garden State governor’s background was littered with potential land mines,” the authors write.
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Oct 31, 2013 23:36
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Doctor Candiru posted:on names and documentation of his household help I'm running for office, for Pete's sake, I can't have guys who also have illegals.
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Oct 31, 2013 23:40
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jeffersonlives posted:Game Change 2 does apparently confirm the longstanding rumor that the Obama team had the conversation about doing the 2012 Hillary to VP/Biden to SoS switch. They went so far as to focus group and poll on it. quote:And while Mr. Huntsman was in Beijing, his wife was exchanging emails with his eventual consultant, trying to be discreet about their political plans by referring to her husband only with the code word “HE.” 
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Oct 31, 2013 23:56
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jeffersonlives posted:Game Change 2 does apparently confirm the longstanding rumor that the Obama team had the conversation about doing the 2012 Hillary to VP/Biden to SoS switch. They went so far as to focus group and poll on it. Yeah I almost came in here to officially eat my words, but it was still pretty much an early idea where they concluded "this would be dumb" by the end of 2011, though.
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Oct 31, 2013 23:58
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OneThousandMonkeys posted:Yeah I almost came in here to officially eat my words, but it was still pretty much an early idea where they concluded "this would be dumb" by the end of 2011, though. The article seems to suggest it was Daley's idea, at least, without input from Obama. It may have been something Daley would have suggested to Obama had the numbers worked, but was quietly dropped when it didn't.
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Nov 1, 2013 00:02
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Arkane's dad got some poo poo to answer for.
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Nov 1, 2013 00:05
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serewit posted:Arkane's dad got some poo poo to answer for. Elections bring out the best little memes
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Nov 1, 2013 00:31
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serewit posted:Arkane's dad got some poo poo to answer for. Dude's a billionaire, isn't he? He ain't gotta answer to no one.
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Nov 1, 2013 00:32
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UltimoDragonQuest posted:What's Huntsman's beef with Romney? Some local thing, personal loyalty to his son or Reid? I figured the reason that Romney never released his tax records was that they would show he'd been under-tithing to the church, which really pissed off Reid and Hunstman Sr. and Jr. We never did see those records...
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Nov 1, 2013 00:33
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The Huntsmans are close to Harry Reid and really dislike Mitt Romney, which is why many of the wild rear end guesses was one of the Huntsmans to begin with.
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Nov 1, 2013 00:37
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