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Imagine if Megatron had someone other than Reggie Ball throwing to him in college
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Nov 1, 2013 18:14
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Doltos posted:Granted that Curry and Gallery both looked like can't fail prospects, but they both had their knocks coming out. Guys like Megatron really don't fail, and I can't remember the last Megatron quality prospect that didn't do well in the NFL. You mean the fact that he never played in a passing offense and didn't run anything close to a full route tree? Yea, that's a bit of a concern.
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Nov 1, 2013 21:06
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Relentlessboredomm posted:You mean the fact that he never played in a passing offense and didn't run anything close to a full route tree? Yea, that's a bit of a concern. SteelAngel2000 posted:Imagine if Megatron had someone other than Reggie Ball throwing to him in college
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Nov 1, 2013 21:08
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Right, so if CJ turned out not to be so great I think people might have said "Well, there were questions about him, he didn't play in a real offense, we didn't know if he could run NFL routes" or whatever. I'm saying in hindsight you can find knocks on anyone that doesn't pan out, I'm just wondering if there's some selective memory saying that absolutely nobody could find anything wrong with these dudes when they came out.
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Nov 1, 2013 21:17
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You guys talk about Gabbert looking scared shitless in the NFL - Dayne Crist had that look in college. I still can't believe the year he loving came in as a backup against USC and managed to fumble the snap on the 1 yard line going in, leading to a 99 yard TD for SC. By all accounts he's a great guy outside of football, but I'll be damned if that play didn't encapsulate his career.
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Nov 1, 2013 23:13
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Speaking of Crist, I LOVE going and clicking back through the old rivals boards. They have stuff back to 2002. It is absolutely amazing how few of these highly recruited guys ever even become stars in the NCAA, let alone the NFL. It is pretty neat seeing NFL stars' names kind of sprinkled in here and there though. Of course, sometimes they get it right: http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/player-Adrian-Peterson-14848
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Nov 1, 2013 23:29
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bewbies posted:Speaking of Crist, I LOVE going and clicking back through the old rivals boards. They have stuff back to 2002. It is absolutely amazing how few of these highly recruited guys ever even become stars in the NCAA, let alone the NFL. It is pretty neat seeing NFL stars' names kind of sprinkled in here and there though. Yeah, I love going through ESPN's recruiting classes for football/basketball. Pretty much any year you sort through is full of pro bowlers, guys we all forgot about, and a few guys that didn't even pan out in college. http://espn.go.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2006/order/true It's a fun waste of time to go through the years. What the gently caress is a Vidal Hazelton, anyway?
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Nov 1, 2013 23:49
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Those stats for Peterson.. how in the hell did he not win the Heisman?  edit: I'm a shmuck, saw his HS stats and my eyes got wide. Still, he tore it up as a freshman. Fussy Dutchman fucked around with this message at 00:28 on Nov 2, 2013 |
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Nov 2, 2013 00:15
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jeffersonlives posted:Basically draft picks have an expected value (which is somewhat close to the public chart but probably not quite right), and outside of very strange situations like "Andrew Luck" or guys like Aaron Hernandez or Alfonzo Dennard that are falling purely for high risk of being a violent felon, there is rarely a significant enough deviation from that expected value at the actual time of the pick, and thus it's "correct" to trade out when you get better than expected value and "incorrect" to do it just because. I think it would be more complicated than this. I think expected value is one thing, but I think scouting trumps expected value. If you think there is a ton of depth and value picks, and don't like the top of the draft, do you not trade down because you aren't getting the correct value for your pick? What if where you are picking, you don't think anyone merits that pick? I think a value chart is important as a baseline, but I think you need to target specific players, figure out where they go, and try to get the best while maximizing the amount of picks you can get out of it, even if it might not play into a traditional value system.
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Nov 2, 2013 00:26
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Fussy Dutchman posted:Those stats for Peterson.. how in the hell did he not win the Heisman? Peterson was so impressive that many of the RBs on the team transferred and did quite well on other teams. I want to say Tashard Choice was one
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Nov 2, 2013 05:29
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Wario Kart 64 posted:It's a fun waste of time to go through the years. What the gently caress is a Vidal Hazelton, anyway?
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Nov 2, 2013 16:56
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Doltos posted:Granted that Curry and Gallery both looked like can't fail prospects, but they both had their knocks coming out. Guys like Megatron really don't fail, and I can't remember the last Megatron quality prospect that didn't do well in the NFL. You know in hindsight the easiest bust to predict was JaMarcus Russell. How did any GM think he was going to be an NFL worthy Qb, much less the number 1 pick! It boggles my mind.
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Nov 2, 2013 18:25
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chilihead posted:You know in hindsight the easiest bust to predict was JaMarcus Russell. How did any GM think he was going to be an NFL worthy Qb, much less the number 1 pick! He was one of the most impressive physical specimens we've ever seen in the draft. He had arguably the strongest arm of any player I've ever seen. He was solid mechanically and had a great throwing motion. He was coming off of one of the better seasons (from an NFL scouting perspective) by a college QB in recent memory; was extremely productive against one of the nation's toughest schedules. In other words, there was a LOT to like about Jamarcus. Should the Raiders have taken him #1? You had a generational WR prospect, and in my opinion two elite guys (Joe Thomas and AD, and AD had some relatively significant red flags) as the other real possibilities. I don't think they would have been wrong to take any of those 4 guys. Sucks for them that the other three will likely wind up in Canton I guess.
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Nov 2, 2013 22:02
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chilihead posted:You know in hindsight the easiest bust to predict was JaMarcus Russell. How did any GM think he was going to be an NFL worthy Qb, much less the number 1 pick! If Jamarcus didn't get picked 1st overall, he wouldn't have made it out of the top 5. His pro day was probably the best by a QB in history. Al was far from the only person high as could be on Russell. He was extremely raw, but guys with the physical tools to be the best of all time get drafted top 10 all the time even if they are complete projects, just because of the upside they bring to the table. It really isn't the Raiders who lost out on Jamarcus being a bust so much as it is football in general. If any player could have ever thrown an 80 yard TD bomb that came down on the receiver at the goal line, it would've been Jamarcus.
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Nov 2, 2013 23:03
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Brian Billick once said that Jamarcus was the highest rated player on the Ravens' board and it wasn't even close.
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Nov 2, 2013 23:09
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Lol. Just stumbled across some footage of 6'5, 228, 4.6 40, high school, Jamarcus Russell. Crazy that he had great NFL size at 17. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKeNRbSLLlI
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Nov 2, 2013 23:17
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Volkerball posted:Lol. Just stumbled across some footage of 6'5, 228, 4.6 40, high school, Jamarcus Russell. Crazy that he had great NFL size at 17. He's about as fleet of foot as Aaron Rodgers when he's at playing weight, he's just never at playing weight.
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Nov 2, 2013 23:53
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Declan MacManus posted:He's about as fleet of foot as Aaron Rodgers when he's at playing weight, he's just never at playing weight. Which at his stature was like, 260. He couldn't stay under 300 pounds for very long stretches once he was a full grown adult. I think he was up to like 320-330 at one point and didn't look anywhere near morbidly obese. So unbelievably huge.
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Nov 3, 2013 00:09
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bewbies posted:He was one of the most impressive physical specimens we've ever seen in the draft. He had arguably the strongest arm of any player I've ever seen. He was solid mechanically and had a great throwing motion. He was coming off of one of the better seasons (from an NFL scouting perspective) by a college QB in recent memory; was extremely productive against one of the nation's toughest schedules. In other words, there was a LOT to like about Jamarcus. The other aspect is a NFL team is not a law firm or something -- a gifted player can be pretty unmotivated and immature and self-indulgent and still do fine in the NFL. (Not as fine as they would have otherwise, of course) So you're left almost with tea leaves trying to determine if someone is just a regular lazybones or a super lazybones.
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Nov 3, 2013 02:12
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pangstrom posted:I imagine the mental aspect is very tough to scout, because you're looking at ~20 year olds. The kids that seem stable/motivated usually stay that way, but most 20 year olds who have been semi-worshiped their whole life "throw up red flags". JaMarcus Russell was almost as bad grit-wise as he was good tools-wise but nobody really knows how to measure that. This is what i mean, i am not even talking about the mental aspect or character issues. The guy couldn't make NFL throws, i'm not talking about arm strength. All i saw were simple reads and wide open passes at LSU. Do gms watch different college games then the fans? If a player has the confidence, intelligence and arm strength to make timing passes to well covered receivers his coach will call a few plays a game suited to that kind of play. I never saw any of that. I think you can draft guys in the nfl based on good physical attributes, but not quarterbacks. To use a current example i never thought Jake locker could make NFL throws, he is just not an accurate passer. I guess what i am trying to say is drafting is an incredibly difficult job. Stop drafting inaccurate passers hoping they will get better because they have all the other tools. Again, trust me, i remember the hype surrounding JaMarcus Russell. I just didn't see it turning out well.
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Nov 3, 2013 16:33
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chilihead posted:Do gms watch different college games then the fans? I think GMs and coaches often have such supreme confidence in their abilities to mold and train players that they draft guys who don't look pro ready based on tools alone. They believe they can craft a superior player out of a lovely specimen as long as the raw ability is there. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, but ego probably plays a huge part in drafting guys like JaMarcus.
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Nov 3, 2013 17:14
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chilihead posted:This is what i mean, i am not even talking about the mental aspect or character issues. The guy couldn't make NFL throws, i'm not talking about arm strength. All i saw were simple reads and wide open passes at LSU. Do gms watch different college games then the fans? If a player has the confidence, intelligence and arm strength to make timing passes to well covered receivers his coach will call a few plays a game suited to that kind of play. I never saw any of that. I think you can draft guys in the nfl based on good physical attributes, but not quarterbacks. To use a current example i never thought Jake locker could make NFL throws, he is just not an accurate passer. Wait so your logic is that instead of calling plays that results in wide open receivers, the coach should call plays that result in tight coverage because the quarterback can make those throws? Yes, please tell me more about your excellent coaching ideas!
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Nov 3, 2013 17:19
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Which combine workout tells you how much of a gently caress someone will give after becoming rich beyond their wildest dreams?
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Nov 3, 2013 17:39
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SlipUp posted:Which combine workout tells you how much of a gently caress someone will give after becoming rich beyond their wildest dreams? QB/WR route tree workout. We should really try to make it a practice to do updates on prospects every Sunday morning. I always have nothing to do waiting for 1 PM games and I figure we should do it while it's fresh in our minds. For instance: - I was impressed with Carr's game against Nevada. He has a cannon on short routes and his HB could barely catch the ball. - Stephen Morris overshoot his receivers on deep routes all game at Florida State, but I'm not sure if it's him or the the receivers. Stadium was incredibly loud and it looked like there were a bunch of wrong routes being ran. - Watkins made up for some bad accuracy on deep routes from Boyd. Boyd played well though and kept his head up all game, just has to work on his deep route tree. Watkins looks as great as ever. - Braxton Miller should go back for one more year. He's starting to show more form on his throws but it's just not there yet.
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Nov 3, 2013 18:07
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chilihead posted:This is what i mean, i am not even talking about the mental aspect or character issues. The guy couldn't make NFL throws, i'm not talking about arm strength. All i saw were simple reads and wide open passes at LSU. Do gms watch different college games then the fans? If a player has the confidence, intelligence and arm strength to make timing passes to well covered receivers his coach will call a few plays a game suited to that kind of play. I never saw any of that. I think you can draft guys in the nfl based on good physical attributes, but not quarterbacks. To use a current example i never thought Jake locker could make NFL throws, he is just not an accurate passer.  Jake Locker is 2nd in his draft class for qb rating right now, and 3rd in completion percentage. This in a class that includes a lot of hyped up guys like Pryor, Kaep, Newton, Dalton, Gabbert, and Ponder. He's a pretty drat good prospect there, rain man. If you can't see how a guy, who's range of attack is a 70x50 yard rectangle, is capable of "NFL throws," I don't even know. Russell didn't have to force it into coverage because somewhere in that massive loving box that he could put the ball in, someone somewhere had several steps on a defender. That's not a bad thing by any stretch of the imagination.  You're also not taking into account that 90% of QB's coming out of college have had nowhere near the level of training throwing the ball that they will get in the NFL if a team is grooming them as a starter. Top recruits at top schools can go their entire career without learning things that are basic NFL fundamentals, because they don't get burnt if they get lazy in college. I don't know that any player changes more from their 1st year to their 5th year in the NFL then a QB does. You don't draft a QB based on where you think he is now. You draft him based on where you think he'll be. There's going to be knocks on guys that will be elite one day, and you just have to accept that. It's not the Peyton Manning's a team drafts that say whether or not a GM is acquiring talent well. It's the Steve Young's.
Volkerball fucked around with this message at 18:12 on Nov 3, 2013 |
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Nov 3, 2013 18:08
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chilihead posted:This is what i mean, i am not even talking about the mental aspect or character issues. The guy couldn't make NFL throws, i'm not talking about arm strength. All i saw were simple reads and wide open passes at LSU. Do gms watch different college games then the fans? If a player has the confidence, intelligence and arm strength to make timing passes to well covered receivers his coach will call a few plays a game suited to that kind of play. I never saw any of that. I think you can draft guys in the nfl based on good physical attributes, but not quarterbacks. To use a current example i never thought Jake locker could make NFL throws, he is just not an accurate passer. A significant chunk of NFL offenses don't even have these kind of throws intentionally anymore (and I'd expect the number will be close to zero by the time current college quarterbacks hit their NFL prime) because they're inherently counterproductive, high risk/low reward plays. The trend in football is to scheme and use read progressions to get receivers the ball in space and secondarily to throw the ball down the field, the hard timing throws are disappearing because the range of possibilities is usually something like 5 yard gain/incomplete/pick 6.
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Nov 3, 2013 18:14
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This was a Raiders era that made Randy Moss look like his career was over, so it's possible that JaMarcus was brought into the world's worst situation. Moss had just left the Raiders for the Patriots that very offseason when he suddenly became a superhero again. e: oh and Oakland's OC was Greg Knapp, QB anti-guru. Need I say more?
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Nov 3, 2013 18:27
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Doltos posted:We should really try to make it a practice to do updates on prospects every Sunday morning. I always have nothing to do waiting for 1 PM games and I figure we should do it while it's fresh in our minds. For instance: Allen Robinson is ludicrously good at catching footballs. Already over 1000 yards recieving with 4 games left to play. He'll end up shattering all the PSU records if he stays for his senior year. His one negative is that he's not particularly fast. He'll own so hard as a pro. Da'Quan Jones was kinda invisible, much like the rest of the PSU D. Nissin Cup Nudist fucked around with this message at 18:54 on Nov 3, 2013 |
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Nov 3, 2013 18:42
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Quest For Glory II posted:This was a Raiders era that made Randy Moss look like his career was over, so it's possible that JaMarcus was brought into the world's worst situation. Moss had just left the Raiders for the Patriots that very offseason when he suddenly became a superhero again.
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Nov 3, 2013 18:45
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Volkerball posted:If Jamarcus didn't get picked 1st overall, he wouldn't have made it out of the top 5. His pro day was probably the best by a QB in history. Al was far from the only person high as could be on Russell. He was extremely raw, but guys with the physical tools to be the best of all time get drafted top 10 all the time even if they are complete projects, just because of the upside they bring to the table. It really isn't the Raiders who lost out on Jamarcus being a bust so much as it is football in general. If any player could have ever thrown an 80 yard TD bomb that came down on the receiver at the goal line, it would've been Jamarcus. The Browns tried to trade up to #1 for JaMarcus. Everybody wanted him.
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Nov 3, 2013 19:34
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LiquidFriend posted:This really can't be emphasized enough. Hell, that was around the time that the Raiders had an Offensive Coordinator that was lifting play designs from Madden. Yeah, but it also needs to be mentioned that Gradkowski stepped into that same scheme and instantly had more success, so it's not all on them.
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Nov 3, 2013 19:37
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In the interest of stimulating conversation, who do you all see as a player who has the makings of a first ballot HoFer? Obviously a ridiculously speculative question but outlandish assumptions are part of the fun of draft talk. So come who's your favorite of the bunch and why are you so biased towards him? For sake of variety lets only have one person cover Clowney.
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Nov 4, 2013 08:09
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Volkerball posted:Yeah, but it also needs to be mentioned that Gradkowski stepped into that same scheme and instantly had more success, so it's not all on them. Oh yeah and I forgot. Lane Kiffin was the head coach of the Raiders when JaMarcus came in. In case I haven't made my point clear enough about how bad the Raiders organization was in 2007.
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Nov 4, 2013 08:18
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Quest For Glory II posted:Not really. I mean he hadn't joined the Raiders until 2009, and he had one strong game against the Raiders and that's about it. His completion percentage in Oakland was under 55 and the team was 3-4 in his starts. I take it you didn't cross reference his numbers with Jamarcus's at the same time. *throws for 150 yards every game* *is a bad quarterback*  I know I'm setting myself up for an obvious joke here, but it's not a fair comparison. I would have cried tears of joy if the 2008 Raiders traded a 2nd for 2012 Alex Smith. And yes, things were bad in 2007 and 2008, but Russell was just as much of a gently caress up as that organization was.
Volkerball fucked around with this message at 08:33 on Nov 4, 2013 |
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Nov 4, 2013 08:30
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We had all the reason to want the draft Russell. 2006 Raiders was the worst team they had since the early 1960's when the team first started. Our only victories came against an equally bad Forty Niners team and a shell shocked Ben Roethlisberger. Randy Moss being literally double covered every single game. Aaron Brooks and Andrew Walter were the quarterbacks that year. An offensive line which couldn't protect the quarterback nor make holes for the halfback. Even if we did take Megatron, who the hell was going to throw to him?
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Nov 4, 2013 08:43
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LEGO Genetics posted:
Considering he had Reggie Ball in college, it doesn't matter who throws to him
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Nov 4, 2013 11:40
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Volkerball posted:Yeah, but it also needs to be mentioned that Gradkowski stepped into that same scheme and instantly had more success, so it's not all on them. Well yeah, I don't think you could just blame the Raiders when Russel couldn't even bother to spend a few minutes to make sure his DVD actually contained game film instead of Looney Toons.
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Nov 4, 2013 12:22
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LEGO Genetics posted:"Even if we did take Megatron, who the hell was going to throw to him?" -Me, when I was 18 and cheered when the team drafted Jamarcus
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Nov 4, 2013 15:34
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The Puppy Bowl posted:In the interest of stimulating conversation, who do you all see as a player who has the makings of a first ballot HoFer? Obviously a ridiculously speculative question but outlandish assumptions are part of the fun of draft talk. So come who's your favorite of the bunch and why are you so biased towards him? No one, really. There isn't anyone that jumps out. Besides JaDeveon, Anthony Barr, Louis Nix, Marqise Lee, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins look like pretty amazing prospects, and probably one of the quarterbacks in this class will do really well just because there are so drat many. I'll tell you a bit about Seferian-Jenkins since individual draft profiles seem to be what you're after. Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Washington)  TE, 6'6, 266 lbs. Pros: Excellent route-runner, great hands, shows great potential as a blocker, extremely fast for size, basketball playing tight end which everyone loves, good body control Cons: Busted for DUI. 2013 stats are underwhelming.
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Nov 4, 2013 15:50
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Why don't you ever see TEs taller than about 6-5 or 6-6. Do they make them tackles if they are even taller? (Or power forwards.)
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