TehSaurus posted:

I'm having trouble reconciling some of the things that Klein is talking about in that excerpt with some of my preexisting knowledge. Specifically the incompatibility of GDP growth with climate mitigation. What about the Zero Carbon Australia plan? http://bze.org.au/zero-carbon-australia-2020 That's a ten year plan I believe, so you should be able to figure a 10 percent per year reduction in emissions. That plan also seems to promote GDP growth to me rather than hinder it.

The New Black posted:

I think the basis of that (posited) incompatibility is more straightforward (or at least, broader) than that. I've seen the argument come up in a number of different forms from environmentalists, peak oil theorists etc., and I believe it does have some merit.

In your basic macroecon classes you're taught that GDPpc growth comes from technological progress, efficiency improvements and so on. However, according to the "no growth" argument, most of that 'technological progress' has been the result of continually expanding use of fossil fuels. The industrial society we live in is entirely dependent on energy. To grow the economy, we need more energy. If we are significantly reducing our carbon emissions, it's going to be hard enough to even replace the energy we are using, let alone add more.

I should point out that it's true that in a theoretical post-carbon ecotopia there would still be technological and efficiency improvements, and that would increase GDPpc. So I guess the key thing in this is that if we're ever to seriously cut our emissions (oh, and save the planet), we need to re-orient away from economic growth being the central goal of virtually all political policy, because otherwise it just isn't going to happen. Cutting carbon emissions quickly enough is going to require some hits to growth.

And really, is GDP growth a particularly good measure of "progress"?


I've not read the Zero Carbon Australia plan yet, think I'll read it later, I'm interested to see how feasible it is.

TehSaurus posted:

The BZE plan is really thorough and aims to prove that the barriers to a zero carbon economy are neither technological or economic. You should take a look at it, it's pretty great. I'm sure I heard of it in a similar thread to this one somewhere in D&D. I believe it conflicts directly with a bunch of the statements you make here.

I would certainly be interested in what Anderson thinks about it, but am I really going to get on Twitter for that? A quick google didn't turn anything up so I don't think he's addressed it previously. Maybe I will contact him through his website or something.

TehSaurus posted:

The BZE plan is really thorough and aims to prove that the barriers to a zero carbon economy are neither technological or economic. You should take a look at it, it's pretty great. I'm sure I heard of it in a similar thread to this one somewhere in D&D. I believe it conflicts directly with a bunch of the statements you make here.

quote:

It said the combined GDP of the 67 countries classed as facing "high" or "extreme" risks was projected to nearly triple from $15 trillion to $44 trillion by 2025 -- meaning nearly a third of the global economy would be coming under increasing threat from extreme climate-related events.

Paper Mac posted:

Not that I don't think this is a serious problem, but this is where we need to really think carefully about the way we do projections of climate and economy without taking into account their interactions:


It seems less plausible that the GDP of these 67 countries is going to triple in ten years if they're also facing high to extreme risks from climate change.

this allusion meant and The New Black posted:

QUILT_MONSTER_420 posted:

Encouraging commentary.

TehSaurus posted:

We've started a garden in our rented yard and I feel like that for the amount of cost involved it can't have been that efficient from a carbon perspective, but it has been educational at least.

TehSaurus posted:

I just have to guess based on what we spent. First the soil is terrible so we decided on a raised bed garden. Lots of people manage to do this with reclaimed lumber but we couldn't get our hands on anything suitable so we made them out of framing lumber. About 192 linear feet of 2x8 lumber along with some 4x4 and a bunch of deck screws. Since our own dirt is terrible we bought like three or four yards of soil from a local garden vendor. Then, since we are in Texas water efficiency was a big concern for us, so I decided to go with a subsurface irrigation as according to the ag extension sites I visited you wind up needing about half as much water that way. By itself that was easily a couple hundred in plastic and tools.

All of this for about 64 square feet of garden. Granted it should be really productive once I learn how to manage all the native pests, but it was quite expensive, and I just sort of equate money with carbon footprint.

Claverjoe posted:

Oh hey, where in Texas are you? I did the same for my folks, and they live in North Texas. Ma grew up as a subsistence farmer, and has been gardening in Texas for the past decade or so with me and my sister as her help, so if you have any questions, feel free to PM me, I know (or know who to ask) for growing in North Texas.

Protip: Corn is not worth it.

TehSaurus posted:

For content is anyone actually paying attention to AR5? It seems to have come and gone without any policy makers addressing it beyond mentioning that it is a thing that happened.

TehSaurus posted:

At the risk of derailing - we're in Central Texas, so probably a pretty similar climate. I'm curious to see if my winter vegetables are going to do anything. I've got some beets, onions, carrots and the like. They all seem to be taking off very slowly, so I'm not terribly optimistic.

For content is anyone actually paying attention to AR5? It seems to have come and gone without any policy makers addressing it beyond mentioning that it is a thing that happened.

QUILT_MONSTER_420 posted:

I don't know how much of a potential "real bad thing" this is for national climate policies vs. just your run of the mill erosion of capacity to regulate, but I've had both Canadians and Euros get all about how gruesome and antidemocratic these measures are:
http://www.monbiot.com/2013/11/04/a-global-ban-on-left-wing-politics/

computer parts posted:

It sounds like all of that could be solved by "Sovereign immunity, bitches".

duck monster posted:

Ozone pact helped cool the planet, study reports
http://phys.org/news/2013-11-ozone-pact-cool-planet.html
But we can demonstrate that doing poo poo about polution actually works.

duck monster posted:

"Paradoxically, the recent decrease in warming, presented by global warming sceptics as proof that humankind cannot affect the climate system, is shown to have a direct human origin," according to the paper, published in the journal Nature Geoscience.

quote:

It was barely 11 months ago in Doha when my delegation appealed to the world to open our eyes to the stark reality that we face, as we confronted a catastrophic storm that resulted in the costliest disaster in Philippine history. Less than a year after, we could not imagine that a disaster much bigger would come.

With a cruel twist of fate, my country is being tested by this hellstorm called Super Typhoon Haiyan, which has been described by experts as the strongest typhoon that has ever made landfall in the course of recorded human history. It was so strong that if there was a category 6, it would have fallen squarely in that box.

We remain uncertain as to the full extent of the devastation, as information trickles in in an agonizingly slow manner because electricity lines and communication lines have been cut off. The initial assessment shows that Haiyan left a wake of massive devastation that is unprecedented, unthinkable and horrific, affecting two–thirds of the Philippines, with about half a million people now rendered homeless, and with scenes reminiscent of the aftermath of a tsunami, with a vast wasteland of mud and debris and dead bodies.

Despite the massive efforts that my country had exerted in preparing for the onslaught of this monster of a storm, it was just a force too powerful and, even as a nation familiar with storms, Haiyan was nothing we have ever experienced before, or perhaps nothing that any country has ever experienced before.

The picture in the aftermath is ever so slowly coming into focus. The devastation is colossal. And as if this is not enough, another storm is brewing again in the warm waters of the western Pacific. I shudder at the thought of another typhoon hitting the same places where people have not yet even managed to begin standing up.

To anyone who continues to deny the reality that is climate change, I dare them to get off their ivory towers and away from the comfort of their armchairs. I dare them to go to the islands of the Pacific, the islands of the Caribbean and the islands of the Indian ocean and see the impacts of rising sea levels; to the mountainous regions of the Himalayas and the Andes to see communities confronting glacial floods, to the Arctic where communities grapple with the fast dwindling polar ice caps, to the large deltas of the Mekong, the Ganges, the Amazon, and the Nile where lives and livelihoods are drowned, to the hills of Central America that confronts similar monstrous hurricanes, to the vast savannas of Africa where climate change has likewise become a matter of life and death as food and water becomes scarce.

Not to forget the massive hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern seaboard of North America. And if that is not enough, they may want to pay a visit to the Philippines right now.

The science has given us a picture that has become much more in focus. The IPCC report on climate change and extreme events underscored the risks associated with changes in the patterns as well as frequency of extreme weather events. Science tells us that simply, climate change will mean more intense tropical storms. As the Earth warms up, so do the oceans. The energy that is stored in the waters off the Philippines will increase the intensity of typhoons and the trend we now see is that more destructive storms will be the new norm.

This will have profound implications on many of our communities, especially those who struggle against the twin challenges of the development and the climate change crisis. Typhoons such as Haiyan and its impacts represent a sobering reminder to the international community that we cannot afford to procrastinate on climate action. Warsaw [where UN climate talks begin on Monday] should muster the political will to address climate change, and raise ambition.

In Doha last year, we asked "If not us then who? If not now, then when? If not here, then where?" (borrowed from Philippine student leader Ditto Sarmiento during martial law). It may have fallen on deaf ears. But here in Warsaw, we may very well ask these same forthright questions. "If not us, then who? If not now, then when? If not here in Warsaw, where?"

What my country is going through as a result of this extreme climate event is madness. The climate crisis is madness.

We can stop this madness. Right here in Warsaw.

It is the 19th conference of the parties [annual meeting of the UN climate talks], but we might as well stop counting, because my country refuses to accept that a COP30 or a COP40 will be needed to solve climate change. And because it seems that despite the significant gains we have had since the UN framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) was born, 20 years hence we continue to fail in fulfilling the ultimate objective of the convention. Now, we find ourselves in a situation where we have to ask ourselves – can we ever attain the objective set out in Article 2, which is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system?

By failing to meet the objective, we may have ratified the doom of vulnerable countries and have to confront the issue of loss and damage from climate change – a reality today across the world. Developed country emissions reduction targets are dangerously low and must be raised immediately, but even if they were in line with the demand of cutting by 40-50% below 1990 levels, we would still have locked-in climate change and would still need to address the issue of loss and damage.

We find ourselves at a critical juncture and the situation is such that even the most ambitious emissions reductions by developed countries, who should have been taking the lead in combatting climate change in the past two decades, will not be enough to avert the crisis. It is now too late, too late to talk about the world being able to rely on annex I [developed] countries to solve the climate crisis. We have entered a new era that demands global solidarity in order to fight climate change and ensure that pursuit of sustainable human development remains at the fore of the global community's efforts. This is why means of implementation for developing countries is ever more crucial.

It was Maurice Strong, the secretary general of the UN conference on environment and development, at the Earth summit in Rio de Janeiro, 1992, who said that "History reminds us that what is not possible today, may be inevitable tomorrow."

We cannot sit and stay helpless staring at this international climate stalemate. It is now time to take action. We need an emergency climate pathway.

We can take drastic action now to ensure that we prevent a future where super typhoons are a way of life. Because we refuse, as a nation, to accept a future where super typhoons like Haiyan become a fact of life. We refuse to accept that running away from storms, evacuating our families, suffering the devastation and misery, having to count our dead, become a way of life. We simply refuse to.

Super Typhoon Haiyan made landfall in my family's hometown and the devastation is staggering. I struggle to find words even for the images that we see from the news coverage. I struggle to find words to describe how I feel about the losses and damages we have suffered from this cataclysm.

Up to this hour, I agonise while waiting for word as to the fate of my very own relatives. What gives me renewed strength and great relief was when my brother succeeded in communicating with us that he has survived the onslaught. In the last two days, he has been gathering bodies of the dead with his own two hands. He is hungry and weary as food supplies find it difficult to arrive in the hardest hit areas.

We call on Warsaw to pursue work until the most meaningful outcome is in sight. Until concrete pledges have been made to ensure mobilisation of resources for the Green Climate Fund. Until the promise of the establishment of a loss and damage mechanism has been fulfilled; until there is assurance on finance for adaptation; until concrete pathways for reaching the committed 100 billion dollars have been made; until we see real ambition on stabilising greenhouse gases. We must put the money where our mouths are.

This process under the UNFCCC has been called many names. It has been called a farce. It has been called an annual carbon-intensive gathering of useless frequent flyers. But it has also been called the project to save the planet. It has been called "saving tomorrow today". We can fix this. We can stop this madness. Right now. Right here, in the middle of this football field.

I call on the Polish presidency of the COP to lead us. And let Poland be forever known as the place we truly cared to stop this madness. Can humanity rise to the occasion? I still believe we can.

mdemone posted:

Have we discussed Mike Davis' Late Victorian Holocausts in here? His coverage of the ENSO oscillation is excellent and he does a great job of connecting climatological events to economic impacts in understandable ways. I may have brought this up in here before, sorry to be repetitive if so. Highly recommended read, in any case.

QUILT_MONSTER_420 posted:

"Whhopsy doddle"
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/11/global-warming-since-1997-underestimated-by-half/

I wonder how this relates to the findings about ozone.

Paper Mac posted:

The problems with HadCRUT aren't limited to geographical surface covered, the realclimate article explicitly addresses some of the other corrections they made.