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Here's a round up of all the articles responding to the Hersh piece, which seems to cover everything he talks about in one way or another.
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Dec 11, 2013 12:16
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Sounds like the FSA is basically assimilating into the Islamic Front. The US is ending non-lethal assistance to the rebels after the SMC's HQ was peacefully surrendered. There's also a massive storm passing through the region, which is awful considering hundreds of thousands of refugees are living in plastic tents.   Also, Homs is hosed.  Fun day.
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Dec 11, 2013 14:22
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Pieter posted:The Dutch couple that were held hostage in Yemen have been released. You might remember an emotional video of them warning they were about to get shot. As it turns out their fear of death was an act, the kidnappers treated them very well and told them if they acted scared that would help in getting the ransom. Which it did.
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Dec 11, 2013 18:13
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CeeJee posted:As it turns out their fear of death was an act, the kidnappers treated them very well and told them if they acted scared that would help in getting the ransom. Which it did. If that's true. According to themselves they were still happily laughing before the video was made, while during the video they were able to bring about tears. You have to be quite a good actor to be able to make such an emotional switch.
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Dec 11, 2013 18:34
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Squalid posted:So I've been reading both the paper on Yemen and the one I posted on Post-Soviet Central Asia, but they've left me even more curious than I was before on tribal conflict issues. First I'd like to ask any of the Middle Eastern posters who frequent this thread if they could help me understand the significance of sheikhs. The author of Tribal Governance and Stability in Yemen, who is Yemeni himself, sees them in a very positive light, and describes how they are chosen through consensus and work on behalf of the community. He emphasizes their role in conflict resolution, however he never shares what's in it for them. Why would you want to be a sheikh, when your status is contingent on the provision of difficult, expensive, and even dangerous, services to the community without compensation? Westerner here, and not much of an antrho guy but the The Senussi of Cyrenaica by E.E. Evan Pritchard is a bit of history, a bit of anthro, but it's better at the anthro because the author is an anthro guy. A bit old, a wee bit Orientalist, but still pretty solid and gets cited a lot. It's Cyrenaica focused, so the specific details might be off, but they're still, you know, Bedouin Arab tribesmen. And I can try and sum up the sheikhs but it's not really my wheelhouse and most of what I know came from that but... basically the tribal sheikhs are big men in a community where political power is unformalized. Their reward is in prestige, power, and community service. Often it could be hereditary/semi-hereditary. Generally, in a world somewhat short of luxury goods (and in a social environment that frowns on decadence, rather than lionizing conspicuous consumption) trading some wealth for personal prestige is not a bad way to go about things. That's how I see it getting entrenched.
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Dec 11, 2013 19:23
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Volkerball posted:There's also a massive storm passing through the region, which is awful considering hundreds of thousands of refugees are living in plastic tents. The storm was given the name Alexa, incidentally. The Ministry of Education closed schools today and tomorrow in anticipation of it. And the authorities are apparently mobilizing aid for the refugees? If they're in the Beqaa the weather will be worst there.
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Dec 11, 2013 19:32
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CeeJee posted:As it turns out their fear of death was an act, the kidnappers treated them very well and told them if they acted scared that would help in getting the ransom. Which it did. Source? While it obviously happened, they haven't confirmed a ransom Edit: Not sure this precludes threatening to kill them at the beginning "Before flying to Amsterdam via Cairo on Wednesday morning, Ms Spiegel told a news conference: "We are very, very, very happy of course that finally this kidnap is over." "We are doing very well. We were treated very well... We were treated the Yemeni way, so that was very nice, from the not so nice kidnapping." No-one has said they were behind the abduction." Xandu fucked around with this message at 21:17 on Dec 11, 2013 |
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Dec 11, 2013 21:15
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Wow, I had no idea the Arab International Bank was this sketchy.quote:By virtue of the Treaty, the Bank enjoys certain privileges in the territories of the Member States (shareholders). These include - as stated on their website:[1] More detail on how rich officials use it to hide money : http://rebeleconomy.com/economy/egypts-secret-swiss-bank/
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Dec 12, 2013 00:00
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Head of FSA military council fled to Doha... http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304202204579252021900591220
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Dec 12, 2013 00:46
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So, going by his fleeing and the peaceful capture of bases, it's safe to say the FSA is falling apart?
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Dec 12, 2013 01:38
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To the delight of everyone in the west from the far left to the far right, yes.
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Dec 12, 2013 02:14
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Mans posted:To the delight of everyone in the west from the far left to the far right, yes. More horror with no end in sight; a gaping, a gory wound in the Earth at the core of a region deeply inflamed and sick with sectarian fever. The Haig Neocons are shaking their heads and realize they've lost their little game on the Valley Forge stage. But this is more than a game, the pain and sorrow will continue to blossom outside of anyone's control; especially in the West. There is no delight here, no.
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Dec 12, 2013 02:47
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So how does Saudi Arabia play damage control at this point? The poured money into the jihadists, now they're all that left.
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Dec 12, 2013 03:01
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So when do we just arm the Kurds and urge them forward since they at least have an appearance of cohesion. Though that causes plenty of problems in its own right, our apparent choices right now are crazy guys and Assad.
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Dec 12, 2013 03:14
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McDowell posted:More horror with no end in sight; a gaping, a gory wound in the Earth at the core of a region deeply inflamed and sick with sectarian fever. The Haig Neocons are shaking their heads and realize they've lost their little game on the Valley Forge stage. But this is more than a game, the pain and sorrow will continue to blossom outside of anyone's control; especially in the West. There is no delight here, no. What the hell are you even trying to say?
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Dec 12, 2013 03:27
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illrepute posted:What the hell are you even trying to say? Horrible things are being inflicted on people (either in direct combat, or as refugees in the elements, or just the terror that everyone feels in one way or another). Proclaiming delight with the situation is plain wrong. Torpor posted:So when do we just arm the Kurds and urge them forward since they at least have an appearance of cohesion. Though that causes plenty of problems in its own right, our apparent choices right now are crazy guys and Assad. From VOA: The United States confirmed Wednesday that non-lethal aid to northern Syria Aren't the Kurdish controlled regions more Southeast? The point being that this isn't a blanket abandonment. Mc Do Well fucked around with this message at 03:45 on Dec 12, 2013 |
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Dec 12, 2013 03:41
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Aurubin posted:So how does Saudi Arabia play damage control at this point? The poured money into the jihadists, now they're all that left. Good for them? It never seems to me like the Saudis have any real geostratigic plan, they just like backing religious assholes. I can't fathom what they stand to gain from this, or what they would do with said gains. Same with Qatar, which has done similar stuff but acts as a bit of a rival to the Saudis. I really don't get it.
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Dec 12, 2013 03:55
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McDowell posted:Aren't the Kurdish controlled regions more Southeast? The point being that this isn't a blanket abandonment. Kurds are mostly in the NE.
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Dec 12, 2013 04:07
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McDowell posted:The United States confirmed Wednesday that non-lethal aid to northern Syria Kurds and Jihadists in the north control the Turkish border, Assad and the moderates hold the southern border with Jordan. I think this is basically blanket abandonment. There may be some moderate groups in the south that the US would support, but at this point, they've been alienated by the 4 biggest factions in the way. The SMC and FSA are basically no more, and have assimilated into the Islamic Front, who are Islamists minus the whole torture and murder angle that the Syrian Islamic Front (al-Nusra, ISIS) utilizes. This whole thing is basically a coup against the FSA leaders who's prime strategy was appealing to the international community and maintaining diplomatic ties. Coup is a bad word to describe it, because typically the overthrowers and old regime don't refer to each other as brothers and fight on side by side, but you get my point. Formally giving up on the international community and asserting from here on out, they'll handle things how they see fit. Time will tell if it's a bad thing for Syria, but it's certainly a bad thing for the US.
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Dec 12, 2013 04:36
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Volkerball posted:Time will tell if it's a bad thing for Syria, but it's certainly a bad thing for the US.
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Dec 12, 2013 04:42
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Count Roland posted:Good for them? It never seems to me like the Saudis have any real geostratigic plan, they just like backing religious assholes. I can't fathom what they stand to gain from this, or what they would do with said gains. Same with Qatar, which has done similar stuff but acts as a bit of a rival to the Saudis. I really don't get it. As a response to both of you, Saudi doesn't fund jihadists. Rich individuals inside Saudi Arabia do. The Saudi government actually tries to restrict it as much as they can, but obviously that hasn't been very effective. The government worked through the moderates and attempted to gain influence with them. Right now, they can basically pause ten seconds and think about all the time, money, and effort they dumped into the Syrian National Coalition to stake as much influence in it as they could, and how that massive effort to "beat" the Qatari government is now worth piss, because they effectively pushed the Syrian people out of their own government and dug the SNC its grave. Then, after some reflecting, they can get cracking on trying to co-opt whatever leadership comes out of this new Islamic Front.
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Dec 12, 2013 04:54
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Count Roland posted:Good for them? It never seems to me like the Saudis have any real geostratigic plan, they just like backing religious assholes. I can't fathom what they stand to gain from this, or what they would do with said gains. Same with Qatar, which has done similar stuff but acts as a bit of a rival to the Saudis. I really don't get it. I think it works to their advantage domestically. Their populace, by and large, is quite conservative and religious. The Saudi royal family by contrast though has a large number of people who live high on the hog and openly go against the morals that many in their populace would want to see them upholding. By shoveling money to religious groups abroad and by not preventing their private citizens (many quite wealthy) from being allowed to do so, it helps to keep them in power. Also, when wars that attract religious zealots are happening in other places such as Syria or Afghanistan/Pakistan, some of their most religiously zealous citizens will travel to be a part of those wars rather than stirring up trouble at home.
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Dec 12, 2013 05:21
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Volkerball posted:There's also a massive storm passing through the region, which is awful considering hundreds of thousands of refugees are living in plastic tents. Is Homs at a high altitude or something? You wouldn't expect there to be snow in most of Syria.
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Dec 12, 2013 06:09
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Mans posted:To the delight of everyone in the west from the far left to the far right, yes. Most western governments were hoping the FSA would win but were unwilling to actually pony up the kind of support that would make that happen, so now they're stuck with two different flavours of horrific oppression. And since the trend in Syria seems to be towards an eventual stalemate with Assad running the south and west and Jihadis dominating the north and east, they'll likely be stuck with the worst of both worlds. So I doubt anyone in the West is happy about it. Europe and America lose because they and Assad have burned all their bridges and any territory ISIS affiliates control will turn into Jihadi safe havens. The Turkish in particular lose because they now have a nice big border with the Middle East's most chaotic hellhole, one with plenty of armed, angry Kurds who might start looking to build themselves a state. To the east, Russia and Iran loses because they are now on the hook for propping up Assad and trying to combat a rabid Sunni jihadi movement that could threaten to feed into similar movements in Chechnya and Sistan and Baluchestan, respectively. Even Saudi Arabia is still stuck with Assad hanging on, and their support for the Jihadis might end up blowing up in their faces considering the problems they have with Al Qaeda at home. So basically no one is happy, and the situation is the worst of both worlds. Of course the hardest hit by this are the Syrian people themselves, who depending on their locations in the country will be stuck with one of two horrifically oppressive totalitarian regimes and a civic infrastructure in shambles. The only ccause in the conflict with reason to celebrate is that of Polio. E: Phlegmish posted:Is Homs at a high altitude or something? You wouldn't expect there to be snow in most of Syria. Not especially, but the city has an average low of about 4 C in December so snow wouldn't be too unusual. Constant Hamprince fucked around with this message at 06:12 on Dec 12, 2013 |
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Dec 12, 2013 06:09
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Clueless American leftists are happy because they kept the US from killing a bunch of innocent Syrians, who are just fine now that we aren't involved.
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Dec 12, 2013 06:49
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The X-man cometh posted:Clueless American leftists are happy because they kept the US from killing a bunch of innocent Syrians, who are just fine now that we aren't involved. This is The Truth and also The Worst. gently caress kneejerk anti-interventionist bullshit, now and forever.
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Dec 12, 2013 06:51
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Amen.
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Dec 12, 2013 07:13
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The X-man cometh posted:Clueless American leftists are happy because they kept the US from killing a bunch of innocent Syrians, who are just fine now that we aren't involved. But imagine how much worse it'd be if we did literally anything. I mean I have no sources or reasoning behind this statement but just imagine if we started carpet bombing the entire nation, THAT'D be bad, so doing literally anything is just as bad right? So, ya know, you're welcome kid freezing to death as the only army that even pays lip service to keeping him alive dissolves.
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Dec 12, 2013 07:48
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Someone should find and repost that wargame some think tank ran with US/Turkish/Saudi teams running their own nation's 'actions' for Syria. It ended with Turkish-occupied Syria, Lebanon in chaos, and Iraq spiraling into another civil war. The Turkish and US teams were pissed off at the results they created, but the Saudis were happy as hell.
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Dec 12, 2013 07:49
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I can't help but think those criticizing anti-interventionists would also criticize the US for attacking Syria. Do those people honestly think the situation would be much better if the US intervened? Perhaps they have the collective memory of a goldfish.
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Dec 12, 2013 08:05
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How were Western governments supposed to get involved without Russia increasing their backing of Assad and making the shitshow even worse? Especially after the chemical weapons agreement.
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Dec 12, 2013 08:08
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hungry bombers posted:WHY DIDN'T WE BOMB Gosh I guess you guys have a point, we could have bombed the regime until the different opposition factions climbed back into the mists of time. Three more bombs after that would have caused Syrian Abe Lincoln to rise from a crack in the earth.
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Dec 12, 2013 08:10
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At this point honestly if we actually want to help Syria we'd flood money into refugee camps as well as collectively between western nations allow tens of thousands of Syrians to get legal residency in our nations. But budgets are tight and those women are wearing headscarves, so neither of those things are happening.
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Dec 12, 2013 08:11
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I literally cannot believe that there are posters here pissed off at the US for failing to involve ourselves in a middle eastern civil war. How loving stupid could you possibly be?
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Dec 12, 2013 08:13
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Amused to Death posted:At this point honestly if we actually want to help Syria we'd flood money into refugee camps as well as collectively between western nations allow tens of thousands of Syrians to get legal residency in our nations. But budgets are tight and those women are wearing headscarves, so neither of those things are happening. Sadly, this sounds like the only solution that makes sense; get everyone out that we can and provide as much aid as possible to those we can't. Anything else at this point results in either a lot of dead soldiers and another decade of dealing with an insurgency or would be completely ineffectual at bringing stability to the region while still managing to kill a lot of civilians. It's quite likely we'd end up getting the worst of both possibilities. Maybe their was a brief period in the beginning where a strong US intervention could've brought down Assad before ISIS got going, but it seems just as likely we'd still be looking at a three way civil war between elements of Hezbollah, some form of ISIS, and a weak "transitional" government backed by our own occupation forces. Not to mention, who knows how Russia would've reacted, and if Assad would've really started unleashing his chemical stockpile after being backed into a corner. At least now whoever wins will not have the chemical weapons. Adventure Pigeon fucked around with this message at 08:35 on Dec 12, 2013 |
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Dec 12, 2013 08:29
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Amused to Death posted:At this point honestly if we actually want to help Syria we'd flood money into refugee camps as well as collectively between western nations allow tens of thousands of Syrians to get legal residency in our nations. But budgets are tight and those women are wearing headscarves, so neither of those things are happening. Yeah, I find the almost complete lack of calls to increase aid to such a large refugee crisis disheartening. I don't know, where I am it's 57 degrees Fahrenheit at night and I find it really cold and then I see pictures of people living under plastic tarps over crude frames in the middle of the snow. quote:Rehashed intervention poo poo. Didn't everyone get their fill of this in the run up to the chemical disarmament agreement? I think we can all agree that no matter what happened it was never going to be sunshine and roses.
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Dec 12, 2013 08:30
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The X-man cometh posted:Clueless American leftists are happy because they kept the US from killing a bunch of innocent Syrians, who are just fine now that we aren't involved. What should the U.S. have done? Backing the FSA would have made them look like U.S. puppets, backing Assad would have looked worse, and backing the jihadists wasn't a plausible choice either.
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Dec 12, 2013 08:37
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I think there was a time that foreign intervention might have ended the war early, but that time was years ago. Now, all you've got is an unstoppable clusterfuck.
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Dec 12, 2013 08:38
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A quick run down of what (I think) happened with the FSA/Islamic Front thing: The FSA is trying to frame this as a friendly intervention on their behalf by the Front. Both sides are drawing this as the Front entering the FSA storehouses near one of the border crossings in order to prevent looting from some of the not-FSA FSA gangs. The Front is an amalgamation of all the 'good guy' Islamists that is actually effective as a force on the ground, and it grew organically from the ground up. the whole thing was shoved together by the Saudis, and the Aloush guy leading has family (including his father, an influential Sheikh) based out of Saudi. Nobody is hiding the fact that it is a Saudi initiative, but they are eapousing what is is essentially an Islamic Republic kinda thing that encompasses all the moderate viewpoints of the non-crazies. There is a lot of talk of the FSA disolving, Idris running away and other things, but nothing is clear atm. This is probably Saudi trying to push everybody who isn't evil together and everybody who isn't with them out of the game, in order to get this all done and over with and as part of their new 'bugger all the West' mentality. The Islamic Front doesn't seem to be arbitrary and wishy-washy like previous groupings such as the SNC and the FSA in all their incarnations. I'm surprised that I am saying this about something the Saudis are doing, but this might be the best thing to happen to the revolution since Ahmed Alkhateeb.
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Dec 12, 2013 09:41
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The X-man cometh posted:Clueless American leftists are happy because they kept the US from killing a bunch of innocent Syrians, who are just fine now that we aren't involved. There was a great deal of opposition from conservative and libertarian circles as well. Not bombing Syria was one thing a lot of really disparate US (and international) political factions could agree on. Then you have some opponents of the Obama Administration (McCain, etc.) getting in line with the President and supporting intervention, while some of the usual allies of Obama on the left opposed intervention. Weird moment in American political history, that.
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Dec 12, 2013 10:49
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