Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

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etalian: Mar 20, 2006

ductonius posted:

The place I'm renting has stayed at exactly $370,000 from last year to this, which is a 2-3% fall when you account for inflation. Also, given mortgage rates etc, my rent would have to be upwards of $3000/mo to make it worth buying and I'm currently paying less than half of that. So, all in all, saved $18,000 in PIT and $11,000 in monetary depreciation by renting.

The CBC documentary on the Toronto bubble called Condo Game was pretty great too pointing out all the big holes in the current housing bubble:
http://www.cbc.ca/player/Shows/Shows/Doc+Zone/ID/2419796099/

For a example of pile of big name companies made investments based with a certain rent/profit per sq foot cost in the future without even thinking about basic things like supply and demand as a result of speculation driven construction binges.

Also Vancouver already had a bad experience with a condo boom and bust cycle back in the 1980s which cost the muni government billions of dollars due to having to demolish neglected half-finished projects and also having to bail out local banks which went under.

etalian fucked around with this message at 05:21 on Jan 4, 2014

# ? Jan 4, 2014 05:19

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# ? May 10, 2024 19:55

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

etalian posted:

Also Vancouver already had a bad experience with a condo boom and bust cycle back in the 1980s which cost the muni government billions of dollars due to having to demolish neglected half-finished projects and also having to bail out local banks which went under.

British Columbia is not a place well known for "learning from past mistakes".

# ? Jan 4, 2014 07:03

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Good news ~~nimby shitfuckers~~ homeowners. Scholarly research that confirms the poor should be rounded up and burned instead of moving them into nice neighbourhoods where all they'll do is diminish the value of your property.

http://www.vancouversun.com/opinion/op-ed/Mixed+neighbourhoods+always+good+idea/9344177/story.html

quote:

Cities are successful to the extent that they bring diverse people, of different backgrounds, together. So it seems to make sense that a healthy neighbourhood is one that includes a mixture of people. Implementing policies that encourage concentrations of people of the same background seems like a bad idea.

This is particularly the case, it seems, when it comes to poorer communities. Many advocate increasing the �social mix� of such neighbourhoods, ensuring that they don�t just contain poorer renters, but also include middle-class homeowners. Social mix is a popular policy, gaining momentum worldwide. Policy-makers believe that socially mixed communities are healthier, safer, and more vibrant, and will attract investment, tourism, and economic development. It is suggested that social mix is beneficial for low-income people, providing employment and social capital, curbing crime and promoting �better� behaviour and neighbourhood reputation. It also appears intuitively appealing: to oppose �mix� is to foster �segregation,� it seems.

It�s not surprising, then, that social mix is often invoked in relation to the Downtown Eastside. Michael Geller, the well-known local architect and planner, has criticized the City of Vancouver�s proposal to require new developments in a small portion of the neighbourhood to be 60 per cent social housing, and 40 per cent rental, a departure from the existing policy that allows for some non-rental market housing. This policy, which is still up for review, contradicts �conventional planning wisdom,� he said, in a Vancouver Sun opinion piece. He�s absolutely correct: it does. But this may not be a bad thing, once we examine the now-extensive academic research on social mix. But simply, the scholarship shows that the supposed beneficiaries of social mix, the poor and marginalized, do not often end up as winners.

While an appealing ideal, the literature points to two big problems with social mix. First, the benefits promised for low-income groups do not materialize. International research examining mixed public housing redevelopment, for example, reveals that improvements in employment, income, educational outcomes, youth delinquency, and health are not achieved.

Even worse, strong social networks and positive bonds of community � common features in low-income areas � are often permanently damaged by efforts to �deconcentrate� poverty and promote social mix. While social mix is believed to foster a more inclusive society, the research-based evidence suggests that marginalized groups are the least likely to benefit from these policies, and may even be worse off as a result of them.

A second problem with social mix involves the ideal of social cohesion. Recent studies indicate that rather than enhancing community, new residents are much less likely to engage in neighbourhood social interaction than longtime low and middle-income residents. When interactions do occur, they are often marked by tensions.

Shattering the �myth of the benevolent middle class,� research finds that higher-income newcomers often use their political know-how and influence to fight against services for the poor, or to target the activities of marginalized people in public space. In some communities, tenants are encouraged not to socialize outdoors, hold barbecues, or allow their children to play outdoors, as these activities offend or frighten wealthier neighbours. Far from fostering social cohesion, these trends speak to unequal power relations and social exclusion.

The problem with social mix is that it assumes an even playing field between people. However, people who have more resources, and stronger property rights, have a clear advantage. The uncritical adoption of social mix in the Downtown Eastside, therefore, could lead to the displacement of the many low-income renters who do not have secure tenancies. Social mix, in other words, could lead to social homogeneity. Ironically, then, creating forms of inclusionary planning that provide some protection for low-income renters, may be the only way in which downtown Vancouver can continue to be socially diverse.

Martine August is a Trudeau Foundation Scholar in the University of Toronto�s Department of Geography & Program in Planning, University of Toronto; Lisa Freeman is a post-doctoral fellow at SFU�s Department of Geography; and Nicholas Blomley is a geography professor at SFU.

# ? Jan 4, 2014 07:16

Lead out in cuffs: Sep 18, 2012; "That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."

Those numbers for house value make me think a little bit about property as an "investment": the building part of the property actually depreciates in value (like a car). Cars are a great investment. :v:

# ? Jan 4, 2014 08:13

Shifty Pony: Dec 28, 2004; Up ta somethin'

Cultural Imperial posted:

Good news ~~nimby shitfuckers~~ homeowners. Scholarly research that confirms the poor should be rounded up and burned instead of moving them into nice neighbourhoods where all they'll do is diminish the value of your property.

http://www.vancouversun.com/opinion/op-ed/Mixed+neighbourhoods+always+good+idea/9344177/story.html

That reads to me more like "Stop loving pretending that gentrification is a benevolent force that is in any way good for the lower class citizens in an area."

# ? Jan 4, 2014 17:30

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Our rental condo dropped by $62,000 or so.

# ? Jan 4, 2014 18:06

Femtosecond: Aug 2, 2003

Cultural Imperial posted:

Good news ~~nimby shitfuckers~~ homeowners. Scholarly research that confirms the poor should be rounded up and burned instead of moving them into nice neighbourhoods where all they'll do is diminish the value of your property.

http://www.vancouversun.com/opinion/op-ed/Mixed+neighbourhoods+always+good+idea/9344177/story.html

This editorial is critical of the opposite of what you're saying. This editorial is about moving high income residents into low income areas. The theory of social mix that they're talking about was the justification for the design of the Woodwards project in the DTES of Vancouver.

# ? Jan 4, 2014 21:20

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

House I'm renting over on Victoria dropped by $28k, but again it's one of those "House is worth $50k, land is 'worth' $773k" situations.

Frankly I'm amazed the house is assessed at that, it's a victorian deathtrap that we're shocked hasn't been condemned yet. The second floor is visibly collapsing into the living room.

VVVV: The lease is till August and it's dirt cheap for an entire victorian mansion with mahogany trim on everything?

Rime fucked around with this message at 02:19 on Jan 5, 2014

# ? Jan 4, 2014 21:35

Sovy Kurosei: Oct 9, 2012

Rime posted:

House I'm renting over on Victoria dropped by $28k, but again it's one of those "House is worth $50k, land is 'worth' $773k" situations.

Frankly I'm amazed the house is assessed at that, it's a victorian deathtrap that we're shocked hasn't been condemned yet. The second floor is visibly collapsing into the living room.

Why are you still living there?

# ? Jan 4, 2014 23:17

Juul-Whip: Mar 10, 2008

My parents' house shed a whopping 1.6% of its value. Mortgage paid off as of 2009. Wut up.

# ? Jan 5, 2014 07:19

Helsing: Aug 23, 2003; DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU JOE BIDEN

CTV News posted:

'We don't really have a debt issue'

While the federal government is headed to balanced books, statistics indicate Canadians' personal debt levels continue to grow. But Flaherty said that while he was once worried that Canadians were taking on too much housing debt, he believes his moves to shore up mortgage rules have kept housing debt loads in check.

"House builders and condo builders were telling me about young people graduating and buying way more house than they needed and driving an Audi. I think we used to wait a little longer before we got big houses and fancy cars, so that worried me," Flaherty said.

"But as I say the market is calming somewhat, so I'm less concerned than I was. And when you look at debt to net worth, as long as the housing market remains relatively strong, we don't really have a debt issue."

# ? Jan 6, 2014 18:57

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

As long as housing prices keep going up all our debt is good!
How can anyone say this with a straight face?

# ? Jan 6, 2014 19:25

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

It's very irresponsible for the Finance Minister of all people to talk about debt to net-worth as if it is a meaningful metric. Debt is absolute; your net-worth is only $X if you can find enough people in the world to pay you $X for your assets (whose quality/value may exist on a wide spectrum divorced from the price you paid).

# ? Jan 6, 2014 19:41

Helsing: Aug 23, 2003; DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU JOE BIDEN

What else is he supposed to say? "Honestly, I'm terrible at my job and the only reason our economy isn't flaming out is because of an asset bubble and China's voracious hunger for our natural resources."

After all that private debt is one of the only reliable sources of demand in the economy. Both corporations and governments in Canada are doing their best to restrain spending so debt financed consumer spending, much of it tied to home prices, has to take up the slack. While I'm sure Flaherty is privately concerned about consumer debt his hands are basically tied. Any attempts to unwind that mess would have the potential to undo the rest of the Conservative's economic agenda by throwing us back into a recession.

# ? Jan 6, 2014 19:56

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Helsing posted:

What else is he supposed to say? "Honestly, I'm terrible at my job and the only reason our economy isn't flaming out is because of an asset bubble and China's voracious hunger for our natural resources."

After all that private debt is one of the only reliable sources of demand in the economy. Both corporations and governments in Canada are doing their best to restrain spending so debt financed consumer spending, much of it tied to home prices, has to take up the slack. While I'm sure Flaherty is privately concerned about consumer debt his hands are basically tied. Any attempts to unwind that mess would have the potential to undo the rest of the Conservative's economic agenda by throwing us back into a recession.

"It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt"

# ? Jan 6, 2014 20:05

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

At this point, one really starts to think that Flaherty has no idea what the gently caress he is doing.

# ? Jan 6, 2014 20:38

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

Honest question: When housing inevitably collapses, wiping out vast swathes of the economy, and something comes up to cool Chinese consumption of our resources, we're basically going to turn into Russia aren't we.

# ? Jan 6, 2014 20:43

AVeryLargeRadish: Aug 19, 2011; I LITERALLY DON'T KNOW HOW TO NOT BE A WEIRD SEXUAL CREEP ABOUT PREPUBESCENT ANIME GIRLS, READ ALL ABOUT IT HERE!!!

Lexicon posted:

"It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt"

Except that he only looks foolish to those of us in the know, to the vast majority it's a wise expert reassuring them that there is nothing to worry about.

# ? Jan 6, 2014 20:47

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

AVeryLargeRadish posted:

Except that he only looks foolish to those of us in the know, to the vast majority it's a wise expert reassuring them that there is nothing to worry about.

Yeah, fair point. loving politics.

# ? Jan 6, 2014 20:48

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

Yeah, I read a lot of development and realestate related forums or just general construction-industry related stuff and anyone who says there's a bubble is laughed out like some 9/11 truther. The issue is closed to most people, there is no bubble, there was a minor flattening recently but now things are going back up. Idiots have been saying there's going to be a crash since 2008 and it hasn't happened. They're just all bitter they didn't buy into the market when they could and now are priced out so want a crash. The Canadian and specially vancouver market is nothing like any other market in the world and can't be compared because of CHINESE INVESTORS and NATURAL BEAUTY. Also they aren't making more land!

# ? Jan 6, 2014 20:57

Helsing: Aug 23, 2003; DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU JOE BIDEN

It doesn't help that the demographics who vote or pay attention to politics are the same groups who are the most likely to own a home and have a mortgage. People don't enjoy thinking that their livelihood hangs by a thread so of credible sounding authority figures keep telling them everything is fine then people are usually quite happy to accept those reassurances regardless of how valid they actually are.

# ? Jan 6, 2014 21:07

Antioch: Apr 18, 2003

Vancouver, ladies and gentlemen:

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2013/12/vancouver-vs-beverly-hills-what-4-89-million-will-buy-in-real-estate/

# ? Jan 6, 2014 22:54

OhYeah: Jan 20, 2007; 1. Currently the most prevalent form of decision-making in the western world

2. While you are correct in saying that the society owns

3. You have not for a second demonstrated here why

4. I love the way that you equate "state" with "bureaucracy". Is that how you really feel about the state

Antioch posted:

Vancouver, ladies and gentlemen:

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2013/12/vancouver-vs-beverly-hills-what-4-89-million-will-buy-in-real-estate/

Wow. I don't know what... just... wow...

:speechless:

# ? Jan 6, 2014 23:16

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

The house in the associated article about 9 french castles? A friends hippy friends rented that back in the early 80's for $700/month split between them. That's $1900 adjusted for inflation.

It's not just the purchase prices that are out of control.

# ? Jan 7, 2014 00:18

Lead out in cuffs: Sep 18, 2012; "That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."

To be fair that is right on the edge of Shaugnessy, surrounded by 4,000+ square foot minimansions. It's also on the market for $1.2m more than its evaluation. The next door neighbours at 2003 W 20th are probably a more realistic comparison:

evaluebc posted:

Property Address Total Assessed Total Land Total Building
2003 20TH AVE W VANCOUVER V6J 2P6 $4,709,000 $3,643,000 $1,066,000
2083 20TH AVE W VANCOUVER V6J 2P6 $3,475,100 $3,447,000 $28,100

http://goo.gl/maps/Ur8bU

That house looks pretty big and new-ish, and I could believe that it's worth a million (or would cost a million to build), but it's still a far cry from the Beverly Hills mansion with a view.

# ? Jan 7, 2014 00:20

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Rime posted:

The house in the associated article about 9 french castles? A friends hippy friends rented that back in the early 80's for $700/month split between them. That's $1900 adjusted for inflation.

It's not just the purchase prices that are out of control.

Rent is indeed more expensive today than it was back then, but not anywhere near the degree to which purchase prices are more expensive than they used to be.

You couldn't rent a whole house in Vancouver proper, certainly not that area for $1900 a month, but I bet you could for $2500 or thereabouts, which is not a million miles away. Monthly rents, after all, rise with monthly earnings cashflow, not the degree to which banks will issue riskless credit.

# ? Jan 7, 2014 00:42

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Lead out in cuffs posted:

To be fair that is right on the edge of Shaugnessy, surrounded by 4,000+ square foot minimansions. It's also on the market for $1.2m more than its evaluation. The next door neighbours at 2003 W 20th are probably a more realistic comparison:

http://goo.gl/maps/Ur8bU

That house looks pretty big and new-ish, and I could believe that it's worth a million (or would cost a million to build), but it's still a far cry from the Beverly Hills mansion with a view.

Here's what you get in the Medina neighbourhood of Seattle for 3.5 mil. Bill Gates lives down the street.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2607-Evergreen-Point-Rd-Medina-WA-98039/48798355_zpid/

# ? Jan 7, 2014 00:47

Lead out in cuffs: Sep 18, 2012; "That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."

Cultural Imperial posted:

Here's what you get in the Medina neighbourhood of Seattle for 3.5 mil. Bill Gates lives down the street.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2607-Evergreen-Point-Rd-Medina-WA-98039/48798355_zpid/

http://www.shaughnessyhouses.com/homes-sale/houses-3m-5m/l/details-34303938

:shrug:

The Seattle house is a little nicer, but not by that much, and I have a feeling a lot of that is the photographer/photoshopper being more skilled.

The absurdity is that the teardown a few posts back is worth as much as that house, and I'd be curious to see if it sells. I can see someone with tons of money buying a Vancouver property for $1.5m and building a $1 - 1.5m house on it (in fact I did see this a lot in my old neighbourhood), but I find it difficult to believe that anyone would pay $3.5m for a vacant plot, let alone almost $5m.

# ? Jan 7, 2014 01:33

ductonius: Apr 9, 2007; I heard there's a cream for that...

Lead out in cuffs posted:

The Seattle house is a little nicer, but not by that much, and I have a feeling a lot of that is the photographer/photoshopper being more skilled.

The Seattle house is A LOT nicer. Look at the ceilings of the two. The Vancouver one has flat ceilings with a few pot-lights thrown in. The Seattle house has designed ceilings with accent lights in almost every room. This is what you'd expect since the Vancouver house is a wooden box with fancy siding and some nice trim on the interior, whereas the Seattle house looks like an architect worked on it for at least a few seconds.

# ? Jan 7, 2014 04:00

Bip Roberts: Mar 29, 2005

Lead out in cuffs posted:

http://www.shaughnessyhouses.com/homes-sale/houses-3m-5m/l/details-34303938

The Seattle house is a little nicer, but not by that much, and I have a feeling a lot of that is the photographer/photoshopper being more skilled.

The absurdity is that the teardown a few posts back is worth as much as that house, and I'd be curious to see if it sells. I can see someone with tons of money buying a Vancouver property for $1.5m and building a $1 - 1.5m house on it (in fact I did see this a lot in my old neighbourhood), but I find it difficult to believe that anyone would pay $3.5m for a vacant plot, let alone almost $5m.

I don't know when the whole every shot in HDR became a thing but it's awful and I see it a ton on Zillow.

# ? Jan 7, 2014 04:04

Odddzy: Oct 10, 2007; Once shot a man in Reno.

I'm trying to set up a wager with a bubble denier in my facebook friends, I blame this thread if I fail to win money out of this. What are the conditions I could give so that the wager would seem fair and that could be measured in a proper manner? I would like to avoid a situation where in two years his articles go againt mine and he tries to go for a truth is in the middle type of deal.

Edit : He would like to wager 500$ on a property in montreal that we would chose and watch over ten years (WTH?), he guesses it would appreceate by at least 10% and should be evaluated by the municipality if we want to do this by the books.

Odddzy fucked around with this message at 05:31 on Jan 7, 2014

# ? Jan 7, 2014 05:25

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

A bubble denier in Montreal? Besides Ottawa, that's like the market most likely to collapse in 2014.

Can you guys just agree to use hpi?

# ? Jan 7, 2014 06:16

Odddzy: Oct 10, 2007; Once shot a man in Reno.

HPI? Housing price index?

# ? Jan 7, 2014 06:18

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Odddzy posted:

HPI? Housing price index?

Yup

http://homepriceindex.ca/hpi_tool_en.html

# ? Jan 7, 2014 06:21

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Cultural Imperial posted:

Yup

http://homepriceindex.ca/hpi_tool_en.html

It's a bullshit metric. Maintained by the realtor cartel (who is never above altering historical data, among other shenanigans). I've got to think there's a better way to compare now to the future.

# ? Jan 7, 2014 06:30

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

A couple guys in the Vancouver area got their REALTOR (TM) licenses so that they could get direct access to the MLS website with all the useful historical info. They wrote some code to scrape all the price info which produced information pertaining to how long a house had been on the market, how many times it'd been relisted and changes in price after relisting.

Unfortunately all of them have stopped posting. This guy was the best: http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/

Anyway, you know what to do now Lexicon. Make it happen.

# ? Jan 7, 2014 06:36

Odddzy: Oct 10, 2007; Once shot a man in Reno.

I'm looking more for montreal though.

# ? Jan 7, 2014 06:45

tagesschau: Sep 1, 2006; Guten Abend, meine Damen und Herren.

Long-term mortgage rates to rise soon, Stephen Poloz says

# ? Jan 7, 2014 20:26

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Cultural Imperial posted:

A couple guys in the Vancouver area got their REALTOR (TM) licenses so that they could get direct access to the MLS website with all the useful historical info. They wrote some code to scrape all the price info which produced information pertaining to how long a house had been on the market, how many times it'd been relisted and changes in price after relisting.

Unfortunately all of them have stopped posting. This guy was the best: http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/

Anyway, you know what to do now Lexicon. Make it happen.

I would absolutely love to do this.

# ? Jan 7, 2014 20:29

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# ? May 10, 2024 19:55

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

tagesschau posted:

Long-term mortgage rates to rise soon, Stephen Poloz says

He's worried about inflation being too low but he's glad that consumer are spending less? Can someone tell me why these two things should be mutually exclusive? Or is our new Governor loving dumb?

# ? Jan 7, 2014 20:54

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