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Cultural Imperial posted:He's worried about inflation being too low but he's glad that consumer are spending less? Can someone tell me why these two things should be mutually exclusive? Or is our new Governor loving dumb? Macroeconomics is a black art to me, but it seems to me that those could easily be thought of as orthogonal.
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Jan 7, 2014 21:15
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My concern would be housing costs crowding out other consumption. Hence, discourage housing consumption through rate hikes, and hopefully divert consumption elsewhere. Unfortunately, Canada's housing market is in Stage 5 Tulipmania, and nothing like that will work or save the day.
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Jan 7, 2014 23:35
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Dear Calgary condo market: please feel free to crash about a year from now so I can buy something for a good price. 
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Jan 8, 2014 00:19
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So our rich friends just bought a house in Kitimat at a ridiculous price for what it is and WHERE it loving is because there's going to be a boom there and they're going to make tons of money. I don't know anything about Kitimat but the whole thing strikes me as a very bad idea. At the same time they want to sell their mansion here but surprise, the market currently isn't paying what it's "really worth" so they're going to rent it out until the prices come back up to where they should be.
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Jan 8, 2014 02:12
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Baronjutter posted:So our rich friends just bought a house in Kitimat at a ridiculous price for what it is and WHERE it loving is because there's going to be a boom there and they're going to make tons of money. I don't know anything about Kitimat but the whole thing strikes me as a very bad idea. Your rich friends are about to become your formerly rich friends.
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Jan 8, 2014 02:22
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Kitimat Everyone wants to move there. World class oil and lumber infrastructure. The Luanda of Canada. I really gotta know. What do your friends do and how much did they pay?
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Jan 8, 2014 02:26
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Lexicon posted:Macroeconomics is a black art to me, but it seems to me that those could easily be thought of as orthogonal. Oh I understand that inflation is currently too low. However Poloz is going to have a hard time getting it up if he's going to depend on consumer spending. I mean, we're not exactly printing money right now and we should be.
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Jan 8, 2014 02:30
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I don't know any of the details just the general plan to buy now, fix it up and ride the boom to make big big money.
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Jan 8, 2014 02:31
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Baronjutter posted:I don't know any of the details just the general plan to buy now, fix it up and ride the boom to make big big money. Fix it up??? In loving Kitimat???? Are they going to import cheap foreign labour and sail the materials up in their own private barge? What in hell
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Jan 8, 2014 02:58
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Baronjutter posted:I don't know any of the details just the general plan to buy now, fix it up and ride the boom to make big big money. Would your friends perhaps be interested in investing in a libertarian dragon-island-paradise? It sounds like they are being very thorough in considering all the developmental obstacles here, so I can imagine they'd be thrilled to hear about such an opportunity.
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Jan 8, 2014 03:26
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Baronjutter posted:So our rich friends just bought a house in Kitimat at a ridiculous price for what it is and WHERE it loving is because there's going to be a boom there and they're going to make tons of money. I don't know anything about Kitimat but the whole thing strikes me as a very bad idea. These sorts of anecdotes trouble me the most about Canada's economic future. Wide swaths of the country, especially young people at the height of their ambition/energy, think that the best way to generate wealth is to get the timing right on purchasing a structure of rotting particleboard, and flipping it down the line. As opposed to, you know, starting a business or something actually productive.
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Jan 8, 2014 03:27
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Luanda is a fast growing boom town? How is it comparable to any place in BC?
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Jan 8, 2014 03:28
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Baronjutter posted:So our rich friends just bought a house in Kitimat at a ridiculous price for what it is and WHERE it loving is because there's going to be a boom there and they're going to make tons of money. I don't know anything about Kitimat but the whole thing strikes me as a very bad idea. The precast concrete plant I work at is in the last stages of production for Alcan's Kitimat Modernization Project. The new smelter is a fuckton bigger than the old one. That's probably the information they're going on.
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Jan 8, 2014 03:37
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Jan 8, 2014 03:48
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Throatwarbler posted:Luanda is a fast growing boom town? How is it comparable to any place in BC? Luanda is the most expensive place to live *in the world* (in 2012). http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16815605 It's also a loving shithole. Kinda like Kitimat.
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Jan 8, 2014 06:38
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There is a very easy way to determine whether a crash is imminent. Just take a few taxi rides and talk to taxi drivers. If they start talking about investing in real estate, poo poo is going to get serious very soon. I'm not kidding. This is exactly what happened in my country as well.
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Jan 8, 2014 12:52
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Go away, Thomas Friedman.
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Jan 8, 2014 13:27
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Paper Mac posted:Go away, Thomas Friedman. OK OK I'm sorry, couldn't resist. I'm just a bit worried about my sister who lives in Canada and is waiting for her second child. She and her husband have a plan to buy a house but at this stage it seems there are only bad options for them.
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Jan 8, 2014 23:45
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OhYeah posted:There is a very easy way to determine whether a crash is imminent. Just take a few taxi rides and talk to taxi drivers. If they start talking about investing in real estate, poo poo is going to get serious very soon. No poo poo, I haven't taken a cab for years but the last time I did the driver was proudly telling us about how him and his brother and a friend had saved up and are buying a house up-island that they're going to fix up because they're all talented handymen, rent out as they ride the bubble up then sell for a killing because taxi money just isn't good enough for him. It was a perfect trifecta. -Think they can fix the house up them selves so are looking at the renovation as nearly free. -Think being landlords for a property in another city is at all a good idea. -Think a lovely town up island is going to become the next big thing just because they read an article about how CHINESE INVESTMENT is coming soon.
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Jan 9, 2014 00:18
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OhYeah posted:OK OK I'm sorry, couldn't resist. I'm just a bit worried about my sister who lives in Canada and is waiting for her second child. She and her husband have a plan to buy a house but at this stage it seems there are only bad options for them. I agree with you, I'm just joking about the taxi driver thing. Every other conversation someone strikes up with me these days is about the housing market, it's pretty tedious. I have a couple friends who have been spending all their off hours doing renos on run down 80s condos and flipping them, too.
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Jan 9, 2014 00:42
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Paper Mac posted:I agree with you, I'm just joking about the taxi driver thing. Every other conversation someone strikes up with me these days is about the housing market, it's pretty tedious. I have a couple friends who have been spending all their off hours doing renos on run down 80s condos and flipping them, too. I struggle to comprehend how flipping is profitable, especially nowadays (easier in 2000-2007 one presumes). The transaction costs of real estate are bloody enormous. A few thousand here and there for legalities, land transfer tax, incidentals, and realtor bastards - and pretty soon you're talking real money. And that's before the actual 'value add' of the renovation itself. How on earth is it possible to make money doing this, especially on condos?
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Jan 9, 2014 00:48
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Baronjutter posted:-Think a lovely town up island is going to become the next big thing just because they read an article about how CHINESE INVESTMENT is coming soon. Nanaimo.jpg Although since I lasted posted a month or so ago everyone has mysteriously stopped talking about this so who knows.
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Jan 9, 2014 00:50
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Lexicon posted:I struggle to comprehend how flipping is profitable, especially nowadays (easier in 2000-2007 one presumes). The transaction costs of real estate are bloody enormous. A few thousand here and there for legalities, land transfer tax, incidentals, and realtor bastards - and pretty soon you're talking real money. And that's before the actual 'value add' of the renovation itself. No clue. I really hate these conversations so I didn't ask how much money they made, but I was told by a buddy who has done this twice over the last 12 months that it had been "very profitable" for him, whatever that means. I have the feeling that if he accounted for his time and the friends he dragooned into working for him for beer and pizza, it wouldn't look so hot, but I don't know enough about it to say.
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Jan 9, 2014 01:06
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Diamato posted:Nanaimo.jpg Maybe they figured out that no one in China has ever heard of Nanaimo.
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Jan 9, 2014 01:28
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HookShot posted:Maybe they figured out that no one in China has ever heard of Nanaimo. Which is a shame, since it's dead easy to pronounce in Mandarin!
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Jan 9, 2014 01:32
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Lexicon posted:How on earth is it possible to make money doing this, especially on condos? They sell it/rent it out for a ridiculously inflated price?
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Jan 9, 2014 01:36
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Franks Happy Place posted:Which is a shame, since it's dead easy to pronounce in Mandarin! That might be what started the rumours!
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Jan 9, 2014 01:39
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edit: whups!
Kafka Esq. fucked around with this message at 01:42 on Jan 9, 2014 |
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Jan 9, 2014 01:40
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^^ Wrong thread I think.  OhYeah posted:They sell it/rent it out for a ridiculously inflated price? I think you may have missed the point.
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Jan 9, 2014 01:41
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Lexicon posted:^^ Wrong thread I think. Quite possible. It's 2:45 AM here and I'm falling asleep. What did I miss?
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Jan 9, 2014 01:46
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I just remembered he was talking about having to replace all the plumbing and electrical in the condo.. if it was that run down, he might have got it for not much, fixed it up to some serviceable standard, and got a couple hundred k on the sale. One was down on the lakeshore (TO) and the other was uptown somewhere.
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Jan 9, 2014 01:47
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If your condo is a block away from a river that flooded Calgary, your assessed property value might have just dropped by 50%. Ha ha! I'm poor now!
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Jan 9, 2014 02:15
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People just hear about the ridiculous success stories and think thats the norm. My parents neighbours house was lived in by some great retired people, it was the family home for like 3 generations. It also received nearly no upkeep and the husband turned out to be a hoarder. After he died she put it up for sale and decided to not go with the highest bidder but to go with this just darling nice 20-something couple who were just so honest and nice and it was their first home. No alarm bells as to how a couple who both worked fairly "low end" jobs could afford a 600k house. Kid was basically just an employee of a professional flipper who actually paid all the money and the guy just got to live in the house while working in it doing the renos. Not actually a bad people at all, but there was a strong sense they all sort of manipulated the widow. They put in some good work and apparently just under 100k worth of renos then sold the thing for about 950k. This is all fairly recently too, like 2012. Everyone thinks they over-paid big time but for the couple and their boss they made out like bandits. Now some rich old couple live in this massive house they massively over-paid for. It's assessed closer to the pre-reno value. People hear stories like this and think "I'll be making over 100k a year flipping houses!" and jump in. People also think the crash is "over" and now is the time to jump in and ride the next bubble.
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Jan 9, 2014 02:18
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Royal lepage says buy a house you assholes. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/rep...rticle16252115/ quote:“We predict continued upward pressure on home prices as we move towards the all-important spring market,” Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper stated in a press release.
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Jan 9, 2014 15:52
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Lexicon posted:I struggle to comprehend how flipping is profitable, especially nowadays (easier in 2000-2007 one presumes). The transaction costs of real estate are bloody enormous. A few thousand here and there for legalities, land transfer tax, incidentals, and realtor bastards - and pretty soon you're talking real money. And that's before the actual 'value add' of the renovation itself. It's pretty much only reliably profitable if you're in the runup phase of a bubble. But you'll find no shortage of people who tell you that Canada is different, don't you know, so it's not a bubble.
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Jan 9, 2014 16:11
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Lexicon posted:The transaction costs of real estate are bloody enormous. A few thousand here and there for ... realtor bastards - and pretty soon you're talking real money. Realtor fees were about 12k on my recently sold condo in BC (7% on first 100k, 2% thereafter -- and that was after negotiating). My realtor was awesome and super professional and got me more than I had hoped for in way less time than I had expected, but that plus closing costs basically wiped out the small amount of appreciation my place had accumulated over 3 years. Do never buy, etc.
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Jan 9, 2014 22:08
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tagesschau posted:It's pretty much only reliably profitable if you're in the runup phase of a bubble. But you'll find no shortage of people who tell you that Canada is different, don't you know, so it's not a bubble. Are there any examples in history where this sort of thing didn't end in a horrible crash? I can't think of any.
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Jan 10, 2014 00:16
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OhYeah posted:Are there any examples in history where this sort of thing didn't end in a horrible crash? I can't think of any. It's different this time. Those other places didn't have the same immigration we did. Vancouver has unique geography, they aren't making more land. My REALTOR said... The Banks said...
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Jan 10, 2014 00:23
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Baronjutter posted:It's different this time. Prepare for a lawsuit for leaving (R) off of REALTOR(R)
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Jan 10, 2014 00:26
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My LAWYER(R) said they don't have a LEG(TM) to stand on.
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Jan 10, 2014 00:28
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