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Not sure if this belongs in this thread, but what is the goon consensus for 3D printer stocks? I keep seeing articles that are kind of pushing the same ~10 related companies like a chop shop. I normally wouldn't really bother with stocks like these (some of them are penny stocks) but I am enthralled by all of the news about this technology.
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Jan 6, 2014 22:11
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Tony Montana posted:The point of knowing this is when the next one comes, I don't do poo poos and I just sit tight, because I own the whole market. I don't worry about a sector or a business model or a fad, I know the entire economy, the sum of all of the activity.. must improve. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/01/02/business/20110102-metrics-graphic.html?_r=0 I know you are talking about the "whole market" but since you also posted an S&P graph you'll notice some people ended up with a nominal loss after almost 100 years sitting in the S&P just based upon where they started. If you bought stock in 1900 and held it but spent dividends you would not have earned any real (inflation adjusted) returns until 1950. (Reinvesting dividends would have had a big positive effect however.) Your investing thesis seems to hinge on the idea that things "must improve" on the global scale. What makes you think that holding every asset class of every conceivable nature is going to mean that you make money if this is true? What exactly does this statement even mean? You still have allocations, and those allocations still have unknown future correlations. There are going to be winners and losers in the future of the economy. Do you think you have allocated your portfolio such that your winners will outrun your losers' losses? How do you know? If you are doing MPT-based portfolio allocation based upon past correlations being indicative of future ones, you are speculating. Even worse, if you are just psychologically slicing up your pie like in that link you sent so that you feel mentally at-ease that you've bought everything under-the-sun, without doing any analysis at all, you're seriously flying blind. If you want to go this route, at the very minimum a) diversify into a variety of return drivers, including actively managed funds and b) rebalance and optimize your portfolio according to the efficient frontier based upon backwards looking correlations. At least then you are living with the most up-to-date portfolio theory, not just following advice from a book written 10 years ago. nebby fucked around with this message at 22:33 on Jan 6, 2014 |
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Jan 6, 2014 22:26
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This doesn't add anything to the discussion and I disagree with your conclusions, but I'd like to say that this is a fantastic post. Thanks. e: I mean my post doesn't add anything, I think the discussion is worthwhile. Eyes Only fucked around with this message at 22:34 on Jan 6, 2014 |
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Jan 6, 2014 22:26
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I own DDD. I plan to hold for awhile and am not too worried about it long term. The field has a shortage of listed companies but is quite competitive so if you do decide to buy in I would pick one of the more established ones and plan to hold for a bit. Check out the business plans, just renting out printers and servicing them is not viable long term, at least at current valuations.
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Jan 6, 2014 22:26
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Eyes Only posted:This doesn't add anything to the discussion and I disagree with your conclusions, but I'd like to say that this is a fantastic post. Thanks. edit: what the hell, might as well share this to save anyone in the thread who wants it. if you want a real diversified return driver portfolio here are your ETFs: PRF VIG HDV SYLD FYLD SH SPY USMV EFAV VEGA MDY IJR EEMV EMLC ELD FAX VNQ JRS NFO DBV RINF GLD SLV GCC USCI WDTI LSC MOO CUT MOM SIZ QLT CHEP RALS QMN MCRO MNA AZLYX AZSYX FM MHFCX. yes, some of these have high fees, but you are paying those high fees to reduce correlation in a "risk-off" environment, which requires pretty active management. (some of these like MHFCX are hedge-fund-lite but don't require a $1m+ buy in.) you also should have allocations for trend following for sectors and country ETFs based upon typical technical analysis signals. allocate these based on backwards looking 10 year correlations (or as far as you can) and rebalance yearly on the efficient frontier based upon your risk tolerance. you should be able to sleep better than your 4 pillar portfolio since these things are really unlikely to all become correlated, and you are juicing all the risk premia that academics know about. my back tests were ugly though so do at your own risk. for someone who knows how to code this isn't that hard to do, you can write a script in matlab to do it in an afternoon. nebby fucked around with this message at 22:56 on Jan 6, 2014 |
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Jan 6, 2014 22:32
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I'm in FAX. 
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Jan 6, 2014 22:50
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nebby posted:thanks, sorry for the derail! This is very generous, but would have absolutely no impact on my ability to sleep one way or another relative to owning funds passively covering the entirety of the world's stock markets, plus of course bonds funds and other investment types to diversify. I sort of get the impression that you stress a lot more over your finances than lots of us, at least based on the number of sleep-related comments, and that would definitely change the opportunity cost equations of just chilling with an index fund-centric portfolio vs. spending hours (or having analyst teams, I think you mentioned?) poring over data, checking up on companies, and otherwise investing time. I'd rather be either earning more capital with my time or enjoying life, and stock-picking as a side project that's fun and sometimes profitable but that I could survive if I lost everything so long as the US and world economies continue to exist (and ideally, expand! Population and technological growth is likely, in my mind). To each his own, and different feelings about finances are totally valid, it just seems a strange place to start from for an argument against a pretty widely accepted generally-best-practices methodology.
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Jan 6, 2014 23:08
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berzerker posted:To each his own, and different feelings about finances are totally valid, it just seems a strange place to start from for an argument against a pretty widely accepted generally-best-practices methodology. I am still am fascinated by the financial markets so follow them closely, but I haven't done any real trading in months. I like discussing it on this thread of course as a means of procrastination from doing Real Work 
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Jan 6, 2014 23:17
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Passive mad money investor/gambler.... I was worried about SIRI as I recently took some profits and reinvested around the last high a few months back and it's slumped since... but with all this buyout nonsense imagine my surprise when CNBC had it all over it's update ticker.
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Jan 7, 2014 00:31
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Phew, I'm glad I held PLUG through the "is it going to fall again" period. Bought it a long time ago at 1.50 and I'm finally looking up. I'd say "too bad I didn't put more into it," but I would have been insane to hold onto it as it fell all the way to 0.15 if I had more than a little speculation money in it. Still trying to figure out where to exit, I have no idea how to read this sort of meteoric rise. Also didn't someone else here say they bought in at like 0.20? 
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Jan 7, 2014 20:57
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I have always used Scottrade for my play money and never had any problems with orders going through, but this morning my limit order would not get filled despite sitting above the ask for minutes - on multiple occasions. After a few minutes the price would nudge up a bit and I would modify my limit up above the ask again. I kept doing this during a 6% run up and finally said gently caress it and cancelled it. Incredibly frustrating. On top of that, their website always gets unbelievably bogged down around market open and sometimes I can't even log in. Now I am thinking of moving my money to either Fidelity or TD Ameritrade. Has anyone had any problems like these at either of those or have any other recommendations?
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Jan 8, 2014 16:21
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I've seen stuff like that happen if you aren't trading in blocks of 100 shares. If that's the case I think it would be possible anywhere.
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Jan 8, 2014 16:39
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Dogo posted:I have always used Scottrade for my play money and never had any problems with orders going through, but this morning my limit order would not get filled despite sitting above the ask for minutes - on multiple occasions...Now I am thinking of moving my money to either Fidelity or TD Ameritrade. Has anyone had any problems like these at either of those or have any other recommendations? Never really had any issues with my TDA account, but then again I have Thinkorswim running nearly 24/7 on my laptop anyways.
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Jan 8, 2014 16:51
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Anyone been playing with the pot pennies recently? They have been going completely bonkers since the beginning of the new year. Not just 1 or 2 either - across the board. I jumped in the one that seemed to be the most legit yesterday and upped my position today (PHOT). It has been having a nice run but nothing like some of the others. Hoping to bag a couple grand on it then going to wait until things calm down again. Dogo fucked around with this message at 18:56 on Jan 8, 2014 |
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Jan 8, 2014 18:36
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I was watching GRHN, they were 4.x cents last Thursday, hit $1.20 this morning, dropped to 58 cents a bit later and now its hitting 82 cents. They make pot equipment for grow ops apparently. Decided to look at the financials for the latest info available. For the qtr Sept 2013, they made $7,000.......lost $222,000 Yeah, no..yeah.......NO.
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Jan 8, 2014 19:07
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I think I have more fun watching penny stocks than I ever would trading them.
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Jan 8, 2014 20:39
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MrBigglesworth posted:I was watching GRHN, they were 4.x cents last Thursday, hit $1.20 this morning, dropped to 58 cents a bit later and now its hitting 82 cents. Right now, with WA and CO going fully legal, and more and more states accepting medical marijuana, I think many people recognize that there is a market with tremendous growth potential there. The problem is that there are a minute amount of companies that they can actually put money into, so even the ones with quarterly revenue of $7,000 are getting huge amounts of play right now because there aren't many alternatives. I spent the last 2 days looking at almost all the options and when I finally found one that was actually filing 10Qs, had a legit looking business operation, and a decent revenue stream I pulled the trigger. I just wish I had a crystal ball so I didn't have to keep thinking to myself "oh look there is that one i read about yesterday - up 65% today... Oh hey look at that one, up 140%". I decided not to pull the trigger on FSPM at 50 cents because it was too expensive. Whelp With what has been happening with all of these over the last few days, I can't help but wonder if all the money is coming from the retail side or if there are some bigger players taking the chance that two or three of these might hit big. Dogo fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Jan 8, 2014 |
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Jan 8, 2014 21:55
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What's to stop Utilitech, GE, Phillips-Sylvania, etc from putting out the same type of lighting tech, it will be a lot easier for those mega congloms to make that equipment than these little start ups.
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Jan 8, 2014 21:58
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MrBigglesworth posted:What's to stop Utilitech, GE, Phillips-Sylvania, etc from putting out the same type of lighting tech, it will be a lot easier for those mega congloms to make that equipment than these little start ups. Public backlash would be my guess.
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Jan 8, 2014 22:03
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MrBigglesworth posted:What's to stop Utilitech, GE, Phillips-Sylvania, etc from putting out the same type of lighting tech, it will be a lot easier for those mega congloms to make that equipment than these little start ups. You are exactly right, but the problem is that they aren't doing it now. People who want early exposure to the pot market aren't going to buy GE now because they would be able to make some kickass grow lighting tech 10 years from now when it finally blips on their radar. Thats why things are so crazy right now because there are only a handful of options with current exposure. In no way am I thinking any of these are going to be my future retirement. Right now though, theres money to be made on them.
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Jan 8, 2014 22:04
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Dogo posted:Anyone been playing with the pot pennies recently? They have been going completely bonkers since the beginning of the new year. Not just 1 or 2 either - across the board. I jumped in the one that seemed to be the most legit yesterday and upped my position today (PHOT). It has been having a nice run but nothing like some of the others. Yeah. I got in on PHOT around .14 and got out 3/4 of my positopn today at .26 not expecting it to go so much higher. Still have the rest to see how it'll play out. There's a chance of a PR from them tomorrow that will result in a bump, but I think they're way overbought right now.
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Jan 8, 2014 22:12
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The problem with the pot stocks is if the growth actually comes, competition from corporate america or china will dominate the market. Trade the bubble I guess. Same as Tesla. I can't wait for genetically modified Conagra Kindbud. $4 a bushel.
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Jan 8, 2014 22:31
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Okay, it's been a while since I last posted here. As a side effect of teaching myself to code, I've gained an interest (independent of my parents) in trading. I read the Jason Kelly book, but it wasn't quite what I was looking for. Then I read Way of the Turtle, which is much further up my alley. From here, though, I'm not quite sure what to do. The Turtle book talked about putting together a system, but didn't give me a starting point. Did anyone else start with that book? What should my first move be as a trading newbie (besides a VSE game)? I guess my problem is: I've read about how to trade, but I have no idea where to start. Help! Pollyanna fucked around with this message at 23:35 on Jan 8, 2014 |
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Jan 8, 2014 22:43
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GE, Philips, Osram et al have bigger fish to fry such as LED lighting, OLED and its possible alternatives. Some niche application doesn't really matter. I'm assuming this is actually a niche, how is pot equipment any different from what already exists?
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Jan 8, 2014 22:46
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There are already hydroponics suppliers and some have been around for a long time. The issue with the pot thing is the federal laws against it means actual pot growers are all under a constant cloud of potentially being raided and shut down by the feds, so those are very risky. The hydroponics suppliers thus are also risky, at least in terms of having a market into which they can increase market share and sales, because nobody knows if this or a near-future federal government will sweep in to shut it all down or not. If congress were to act to legalize pot, or even just make it legal in states that legalize/decriminalize pot, I predict you'll immediately see the larger companies jump in and they'll have built-in advantages of scale, advertising, distribution networks, reliability, and brand name recognition. If congress fails to act to legalize pot, I predict that most of these small mom-and-pops will either go bust, or fail to grow well. Either way, I'd look at is a very near-term opportunity to trade the bubble, and try not to be on the downside when it pops. Basically gambling.
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Jan 8, 2014 23:03
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Leperflesh posted:There are already hydroponics suppliers and some have been around for a long time. The issue with the pot thing is the federal laws against it means actual pot growers are all under a constant cloud of potentially being raided and shut down by the feds, so those are very risky. The hydroponics suppliers thus are also risky, at least in terms of having a market into which they can increase market share and sales, because nobody knows if this or a near-future federal government will sweep in to shut it all down or not. Seconding this. Pot is only good so long as Holder and Obama are around. Unless the FEDERAL government changes things everything can be shut down at a moments notice. One of my class mates started a dispensary in CA. The city voted in a tax on medical marijuana which he supported and fully complied with. City police then started raiding dispensaries, including his, shutting down quite a few. After confiscating everything he was not allowed to use the lawyer he had retained as the money could not be verified to be clean, not paid for by money from selling weed. Eventually he was acquitted and the police had to return all the marijuana they had confiscated. Just an anecdote but it highlights how unstable the market is. Starting to plan on selling off equities and look towards bonds in the next couple months. Anyone else thinking about this or is it just me?
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Jan 8, 2014 23:31
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Leperflesh posted:There are already hydroponics suppliers and some have been around for a long time. The issue with the pot thing is the federal laws against it means actual pot growers are all under a constant cloud of potentially being raided and shut down by the feds, so those are very risky. The hydroponics suppliers thus are also risky, at least in terms of having a market into which they can increase market share and sales, because nobody knows if this or a near-future federal government will sweep in to shut it all down or not.
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Jan 9, 2014 00:19
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lightpole posted:Starting to plan on selling off equities and look towards bonds in the next couple months. Anyone else thinking about this or is it just me? I am curious about this as well.
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Jan 9, 2014 02:43
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How do you determine what stock/market is a good fit for your trading system? I've learned what to do after identifying a trending market, but I get stuck on getting there in the first place, e.g. screening stocks and portfolio filters.
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Jan 9, 2014 03:00
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In regards to the pot stocks getting overtaken by a big player, what about a company like The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)? Granted it looks kinda expensive historically right now.
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Jan 9, 2014 20:51
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Comb Your Beard posted:In regards to the pot stocks getting overtaken by a big player, what about a company like The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)? Granted it looks kinda expensive historically right now. That's such a speculative play it's not even worth considering right now. Too much TBD with regard to federally embracing it, interstate commerce, different state laws between states, and who would (if anyone) take the risk to buy out the little guys.
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Jan 9, 2014 21:01
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fougera posted:GE, Philips, Osram et al have bigger fish to fry such as LED lighting, OLED and its possible alternatives. Some niche application doesn't really matter. I'm assuming this is actually a niche, how is pot equipment any different from what already exists? Buying GE to ride the pot legalization wave would be like buying Apple to take advantage of Taylor Swift's next album's sales. That said, I don't have any interest in day-trading OTC stocks. One of my co-workers was long MDBX and doubled his money recently. I begged him to sell his initial stake and he did. This is a guy who has worked in IR. He knows what kind of bullshit goes on and he still buys OTC/PK stocks with regularity for the simple reason that he thinks he can swing trade them successfully. I'm worried he'll make a ton of gains on this stock and be convinced of his own immortality.
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Jan 9, 2014 21:11
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tiananman posted:Buying GE to ride the pot legalization wave would be like buying Apple to take advantage of Taylor Swift's next album's sales. Pollyanna posted:How do you determine what stock/market is a good fit for your trading system? I've learned what to do after identifying a trending market, but I get stuck on getting there in the first place, e.g. screening stocks and portfolio filters. Acquilae fucked around with this message at 22:56 on Jan 9, 2014 |
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Jan 9, 2014 22:52
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tiananman posted:Buying GE to ride the pot legalization wave would be like buying Apple to take advantage of Taylor Swift's next album's sales. My point isn't that GE is a better way to play marijuana. My point is that the bigger lighting guys don't give a drat.
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Jan 10, 2014 03:00
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You are better off buying a colorado utility company than buying GE for legal marijuana effects. Unless GE gets into the wholesale pot business...
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Jan 10, 2014 03:19
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I always assumed that with (full) pot legalization, you'd see the cigarette companies jumping on it. With decriminilization and/or limited legalization (like medical marijuana) at the federal level, you'd instead see the drug companies (like Eli Lilly, Pfizer, etc.) jumping on it. In either case, you've got very big companies with established infrastructure and the legions of lawyers needed for complicated drug compliance along with the capital resources to crush whatever little guys had popped up first.
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Jan 10, 2014 03:23
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Leperflesh posted:I always assumed that with (full) pot legalization, you'd see the cigarette companies jumping on it. With decriminilization and/or limited legalization (like medical marijuana) at the federal level, you'd instead see the drug companies (like Eli Lilly, Pfizer, etc.) jumping on it. I'm sure PM and the like have done internal studies on what it will take to divert some of their capacity to packs of joints.
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Jan 10, 2014 04:35
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Why would a multi-national company invest anything in a product which is a federally controlled substance?
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Jan 10, 2014 04:46
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So this year I finally started making enough money to start putting into an investment account. I've done a lot of reading, and I've managed a simulated portfolio with about ten stocks that I heavily researched. over the past 12 months, that portfolio has given me what would be a 27% return. Now I'm ready to pull the trigger and start investing real money, but, after all the learning and simulation and research, it seems like I've really missed the boat, and it's probably the worst time to get into stocks in the past several years. Am I just overly paranoid as a result of overthinking/learning, or have I just found myself at a horribly unfortunate coincidence in time? Maybe I should just wait for the space mining bubble to start inflating.
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Jan 10, 2014 05:09
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Looks like the bubble popped this afternoon. It was a super risky gamble but I got out this morning with some nice profit. I wont be touching any of these for a long time now, but based on what happened over a few days I think as a group they are going to be ridiculously sensitive to any news that happens in the future. I take back my speculation of "big players," now though. I think it was all just overreaction to the Colorado stores opening and sellout. Back to the large caps
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Jan 10, 2014 05:12
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