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Acquilae posted:Seems like it's going to be down this week with the bloodbath we've had over the last 3 hours; I got stopped out of both my current trading positions so going to wait for the bottom to settle before entering again. We need to see how these bank earnings work out. I hope it goes down for all the week but we have seen what happens after a pullback in this market.
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Jan 14, 2014 14:33
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Hello TSLA my old friend..
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Jan 14, 2014 17:48
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Turkeybone posted:Hello TSLA my old friend.. Wonder for how long though, I found since the high, TSLA hates being above $150 for very very long.
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Jan 14, 2014 20:05
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TSLA is so much fun. I'm glad I don't have a ton of money in it, because the rational side of me throws up red flags at its long-term status, so I won't be in any significant pain if it tanks, but it sure is nice having a stock that I bought shoot through the roof (then come back down some, but still be way higher than I initially bought it). I do, meanwhile, have enough money in it that if it somehow DOES become a Big Deal in 10-20 years, I'll still be in decent shape from it. I sure wish I'd put real life money towards my similar good feeling towards Google when it first arrived on the market at $85 per share, rather than once it was almost 10x that amount.
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Jan 14, 2014 20:35
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e: Okay well my picture is being janky, but I made $1200 on 2 lame little TSLA $160s for March that I bought almost at the first peak. I'll probably just flip them tomorrow if there's no followthrough/upgrades.
Turkeybone fucked around with this message at 22:15 on Jan 14, 2014 |
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Jan 14, 2014 22:12
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I can see the TSLA followthrough continuing tomorrow from more short covering.
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Jan 15, 2014 06:19
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why do you guys continue to pay attention to tesla 
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Jan 15, 2014 08:14
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mindphlux posted:why do you guys continue to pay attention to tesla It's a nerd stock that's ultimately probably a bad thing to invest yourself in but OOH SHINY. Basically goon investor catnip.
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Jan 15, 2014 16:10
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Josh Lyman posted:
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Jan 15, 2014 16:25
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mindphlux posted:why do you guys continue to pay attention to tesla Because last year it was trading at 37 and now it's at 162. That's emotionally exciting if you were long Tesla, and Tesla is the poster child for "Dump my money in some company I'd like to see succeed." investing.
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Jan 15, 2014 16:44
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berzerker posted:It's a nerd stock that's ultimately probably a bad thing to invest yourself in but OOH SHINY. Basically goon investor catnip. Because I make money on TSLA I dunno, this the stock picking analysis and trading thread, or so I thought 
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Jan 15, 2014 17:47
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Maybe I shouldn't have sold my $27 WDC shares at $75. 
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Jan 15, 2014 18:34
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MrBigglesworth posted:Because I make money on TSLA I dunno, this the stock picking analysis and trading thread, or so I thought Don't get me wrong, as I said a dozen or so posts ago, I'm invested in Tesla myself. I'm invested in a combination of 'nerd stock' and 'OOH SHINY (paper returns)' though. I guess other people could, in theory, have different motivations than me. Also, I find it amusing the Motley Fool gives what it presents as thoughtful stock advice, then ends every article with this crap: quote:They said it couldn’t be done. But David Gardner has proved them wrong time, and time, and time again with stock returns like 926%, 2,239%, and 4,371%. In fact, just recently one of his favorite stocks became a 100-bagger. And he’s ready to do it again. You can uncover his scientific approach to crushing the market and his carefully chosen 6 picks for ultimate growth instantly, because he’s making this premium report free for you today. Click here now for access. berzerker fucked around with this message at 19:09 on Jan 15, 2014 |
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Jan 15, 2014 19:04
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berzerker posted:Also, I find it amusing the Motley Fool gives what it presents as thoughtful stock advice, then ends every article with this crap: I love the idea behind the Fool (that anyone can be a successful investor), but it seems like their real message is, "always invest money in stocks, and also be born rich first."
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Jan 15, 2014 19:38
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berzerker posted:Also, I find it amusing the Motley Fool gives what it presents as thoughtful stock advice, then ends every article with this crap: I have access to several 'premium' subscriptions on Motley Fool and they're a lot better than the free stuff since they aren't trying to get you to pay and sign up; so none of the closing sales pitch on articles. Of course you still have to take it all with a grain of salt, but I find their analyses worth reading.
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Jan 15, 2014 20:03
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Star War Sex Parrot posted:Maybe I shouldn't have sold my $27 WDC shares at $75. And me with STX at $10.xx after buying at $3.xx
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Jan 15, 2014 22:19
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Re: TA, my approach is based on Bollinger breakouts + another indicator like RSI. This is similar to the system that's backtested in Way of the Turtle. For example, consider TSLA: Notice how prior to the jump in price, the Bollinger bands were extremely tight? This means that the chance of a breakout is high, in this case in the upward direction. For this system, the time between an entry and an exit can be very long. I still pair it with another indicator like the moving averages or the RSI. In this case, the RSI signaled "oversold" right before the jump, and did so for a while into it. There were other occasions where it peaked over 70, which coincided with the breakouts. But it was only once the bands' channel widened during the jump that it really got stuck up there for a few weeks, around March of last year. I'm basically pitting the two indicators together so that when they agree, it's more likely that a change really is going to happen. (I'm also working on including the MACD, but that's a bit more complicated.) I'm a literal newbie, so this isn't very sophisticated and I am not an expert. But from what I've seen, it seems to hold SOME water.
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Jan 16, 2014 05:28
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Pollyanna posted:Re: TA, my approach is based on Bollinger breakouts + another indicator like RSI. This is similar to the system that's backtested in Way of the Turtle. For example, consider TSLA:
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Jan 16, 2014 08:48
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Josh Lyman posted:Bollinger bands will mechanically be wider when there's a price change because they're just (usually) calculated as 20-day MA +/- 2*(20-day std dev). You're basically saying "price hasn't moved recently -> bands are narrow" and "price HAS moved recently -> bands are wide". Yeah, the Bollinger bands are literally just a graphical representation of +/- two sigma on the SMA. If this shrinks that just means the security hasn't had a high variance recently. I'm not sure that you can say "If the stock hasn't been very variant recently, it's about to make a big jump" without any further argument. The TSLA jump is entirely explainable from a business perspective anyway. They simply announced sales numbers that blew everyone's expectations out of the water, and announced profitability at a time when a lot of people doubted they would ever become profitable e: Full disclosure, I just dislike Bollinger bands in general because they inherently assume that day-to-day security returns are Gaussian distributed, which is a bad assumption. Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 09:32 on Jan 16, 2014 |
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Jan 16, 2014 09:24
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I love chart patterns because for even the most sophisticated models and indicators, you can find examples and counter-examples of almost any trend. To test this theory, around Halloween, I created a headless horseman chart pattern, and then looked through charts to cherry pick ones that supported my chart thesis - which lined up with a crude drawing of a horseman holding a pumpkin. If, within 5 trading days, he throws the pumpkin and it breaks out of the 20 DMA, it will mean a move OPPOSITE of the breakout - going as low as the horse's feet - or higher again with the same vigor. With these criteria I found a few examples, and sent them to some of the traders I know. None of them believed it (it was an obvious joke), but they believed that some people would believe it. All you need is enough "proof" and some people will believe almost anything - especially if there's a pot of gold at the end of it. A chart pattern is just a tool and like any tool it's only as good as the person using it.
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Jan 17, 2014 14:27
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Back testing specific cases is meaningless unless you can scan the entire market for occurrences and show that your model has predictive ability of more than 50%.
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Jan 17, 2014 14:37
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TA? Feh, Everyone knows you use the Bible for unlocking the secret money code! http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/Financial-bible-Hyman/2013/07/08/id/513894
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Jan 17, 2014 15:02
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cowofwar posted:Back testing specific cases is meaningless unless you can scan the entire market for occurrences and show that your model has predictive ability of more than 50%. Of course, but the average newbie trader doesn't know that at all. Quite to the contrary. They might only need to see it happen once.
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Jan 17, 2014 15:26
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tiananman posted:Of course, but the average newbie trader doesn't know that at all. Quite to the contrary. They might only need to see it happen once. Besides, who has time to backtest when they just found the one true chart pattern to rule them all. The logical first steps would be to 1. Get money and 2. gently caress bitches
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Jan 17, 2014 16:33
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cowofwar posted:Back testing specific cases is meaningless unless you can scan the entire market for occurrences and show that your model has predictive ability of more than 50%. A "predictive ability of more than 50%" is a bit simplistic in the most general case. Consider a strategy of just buying and holding (always predicting upward moves): it may very well meet that 50% threshold for sustained periods of time during bull markets. Or, consider a signal that correctly predicts an event that occurs 1% of the time with 20% accuracy. That would likely be very useful. There are not very complicated ways of dealing with that, it's just something to remember.
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Jan 18, 2014 07:02
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Anyone watching the TWC buyout offer?
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Jan 21, 2014 19:20
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Was sent here from the long term investing thread. I am brokerage shopping and want the following: mobile deposits (pretty sure this is standard now) low/zero fee index funds low comissions on securities trades a decent futures trading platform Maybe forex too? I've been educating myself about it, and I'm aware of the pitfalls, but I want the option when it comes time I'm in etrade now and hate it. Tradestation seems attractive. Any thoughts?
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Jan 21, 2014 22:08
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You should look into Thinkorswim from TDAmeritrade; it has futures trading for $3/contract and 1/4 margin requirement for day trading and forex. Not sure if that is competitive in terms of futures fees as I only have about 2 months experience of trading ES contracts.
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Jan 22, 2014 02:36
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Acquilae posted:You should look into Thinkorswim from TDAmeritrade; it has futures trading for $3/contract and 1/4 margin requirement for day trading and forex. Not sure if that is competitive in terms of futures fees as I only have about 2 months experience of trading ES contracts. Tradestation is $1.20 if you do less than 300 trades (a month I think) and it goes down above that I'm not too keen on trading on margin. I'm still trying to get over my conservative investor mindset when it comes to the 15ishk I'm comfortable with putting into futures and potentially losing if I gently caress up.
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Jan 22, 2014 03:06
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What contracts have a notional value less than $15k?
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Jan 22, 2014 03:55
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Bloody Queef posted:Tradestation is $1.20 if you do less than 300 trades (a month I think) and it goes down above that  For example, right now you have to put up $4,500(1,250 intraday) to trade one ES contract but the contract is the S&P 500 x 50 so you're borrowing the $88,000 on margin and controlling $92,000 with your capital.
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Jan 22, 2014 04:06
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Acquilae posted:In my opinion, trading on margin is fine as long as you're comfortable with the amount of stock you trade(i.e. not going full cash+margin into one trade and putting like $20,000 into a trade when you're used to $5,000) and with the amount you borrow; the most I've done with stocks is dipping 50% into margin. Also, if you're not keen to trading on margin, futures is the last thing you'll want to trade as you're leveraging 90-95% I know from a financial perspective that margin is fine, it's just more of an emotional one at this point. I haven't jumped into the futures market yet, as I feel I need to spend more time educating myself. Once I'm there, I'll utilize it. Other than playing with the free trading platforms that are out there, does the thread have any recommendations for further education? E: Just saw this in the OP http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Day-Winning-Zero-Futures/dp/0974092118/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1264628339&sr=1-1 I'll grab that Bloody Queef fucked around with this message at 05:09 on Jan 22, 2014 |
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Jan 22, 2014 04:28
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You just can't win with AMD.
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Jan 22, 2014 15:11
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DEMAG posted:You just can't win with AMD. Sure you can. My strategy has been buy below $4 sell above $4. It's been this way for ages.
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Jan 22, 2014 16:27
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I still have 20 shares of AMD that I bought on 1/20/2006, at $35.80 a share. I hang on to them because they serve as an important reminder to myself about limiting one's losses.
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Jan 22, 2014 18:06
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Mm poo poo, AMD. There is a fairy tale gone sour. Did buying ATi improve things for them, it's been a while now..?
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Jan 22, 2014 18:14
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Tony Montana posted:Did buying ATi improve things for them, it's been a while now..? I think it just delayed the inevitable.
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Jan 22, 2014 18:16
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I've never liked AMD but I really don't want them to disappear or be irrelevant.
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Jan 22, 2014 18:17
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DNova posted:I've never liked AMD but I really don't want them to ... be irrelevant.
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Jan 22, 2014 18:18
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Star War Sex Parrot posted:I've got bad news for you. I was going to expand on that... I know, I know. It's not good for anyone though.
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Jan 22, 2014 18:19
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