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Cease to Hope posted:I'm really not sure what to say here. OK, he doesn't get elected to the Presidency AGAIN. Or, alternately, he doesn't get elected to the Presidency in the age of the Internet, 24-hour cable news, and smartphones. Happy?
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Jan 27, 2014 20:21
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Alter Ego posted:OK, he doesn't get elected to the Presidency AGAIN. Or, alternately, he doesn't get elected to the Presidency in the age of the Internet, 24-hour cable news, and smartphones. Happy? Remember how much it seemed like McCain's bus had lost all of its wheels and how sure everyone was that he was absolutely under no circumstances going to be the Republican nominee for awhile, though? I personally think Christie will be done early in the race, but I don't think it's outside of the realm of possibility that somebody could weather being the mob boss Governor.
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Jan 27, 2014 20:27
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I figure a good parallel to Christie might be Rudy Giuliani. If I remember correctly, lots of people where convinced that he was going to be the nominee in 2007, and then he completely crashed and burned when the actual primaries started.
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Jan 27, 2014 20:34
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Lycus posted:I figure a good parallel to Christie might be Rudy Giuliani. If I remember correctly, lots of people where convinced that he was going to be the nominee in 2007, and then he completely crashed and burned when the actual primaries started. A pro-choice, pro-gay-rights candidate had to do something a lot more impressive than be mayor of what's perceived as a liberal haven to get through the Republican primary, is how I remember Rudy Giuliani. A solidly conservative governor suddenly plagued by scandal seems a poor analogy, unless you're really limiting this to the basic idea that sometimes candidates with national recognition don't always work out.
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Jan 27, 2014 20:45
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Lycus posted:I figure a good parallel to Christie might be Rudy Giuliani. If I remember correctly, lots of people where convinced that he was going to be the nominee in 2007, and then he completely crashed and burned when the actual primaries started. That was somewhat unique, in that Giuliani seemed determined to have the dumbest campaign strategy of all time (didn't he skip all the early primaries and caucases to focus on Florida, just to bomb spectacularly?) and was percieved as 'too liberal' on culture warrior stuff (the guy was pro-choice for Christ's sake). I doubt Christie will be that stupid, and I think he's pretty standard Republican fare when it comes to stuff like abortion/LGBT-bashing/"family values"/etc.* You could just as easily point to Mitt Romney as a guy who had a lot of 'obvious nominee' narrative going on before 2012, who then went on to be the nominee. *It is true that he signed a bill banning 'gay conversion therapy' in NJ, and he didn't appeal the NJ Supreme Court striking down the ban on gay marriage. But he also didn't sign the bill into law, and he's not exactly on GLAAD's board of directors. Foyes36 fucked around with this message at 20:52 on Jan 27, 2014 |
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Jan 27, 2014 20:47
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Alter Ego posted:I'm sure Barack Obama probably hasn't done any driving since declaring his candidacy in 2007, and he probably won't for a few years after 2016 either. Such is the way of Secret Service protection. Hypothetically if tomorrow Obama really wanted to drive himself to go get a burger what would the secret service even do to stop him? I'm picturing a wall of agents blocking the gate exits while begging the president to just let them drive him.
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Jan 27, 2014 21:09
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Sir Kodiak posted:A pro-choice, pro-gay-rights candidate had to do something a lot more impressive than be mayor of what's perceived as a liberal haven to get through the Republican primary, is how I remember Rudy Giuliani. A solidly conservative governor suddenly plagued by scandal seems a poor analogy, unless you're really limiting this to the basic idea that sometimes candidates with national recognition don't always work out. New Jersey is perceived as a liberal haven, at least for states that are not on the East Coast.
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Jan 27, 2014 21:13
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computer parts posted:New Jersey is perceived as a liberal haven, at least for states that are not on the East Coast. Not to the same extent as NYC, and that's a much bigger deal when you're as squishy a conservative as Giuliani, which Christie is not.
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Jan 27, 2014 21:22
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Raskolnikov38 posted:Hypothetically if tomorrow Obama really wanted to drive himself to go get a burger what would the secret service even do to stop him? Per a West Wing episode, they would yank a bunch of critical parts from the car to make it undriveable.
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Jan 27, 2014 21:46
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Sir Tonk posted:That didn't take long. Is it just me, or has Drudge been steadily more and more schizophrenic-looking as of late? 
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Jan 27, 2014 22:01
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Sergg posted:People over-estimate the amount of support that Libertarians have within the Republican Party. Ron Paul was never able to get better than 3rd place in any primary despite his funding and ground support. Except for the New Hampshire, Minnesota, Maine, Washington, North Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, Washington DC, Conneticut, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Indiana, North Carolina, Oregon, Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas, California, Montana, New Jersey, South Dakota, and Utah primaries, your statement is 100% accurate, assuming we don't dig back any further than 2012. gently caress, he even came in first in the Virgin Island caucuses. Netted him a whole delegate. Now in terms of overall delegates going into the convention, yeah, he's never been one of the Next In Line For The Nomination candidates that tend to actually pull delegates. It's not exactly a fair competition, though, because the state-level parties were pulling out all the stops to make sure Romney got the nod. When the rules of the game can change after the voting ends, it's idiotic to point to the outcome as some kind of a weathervane of support. Romney was not exactly a popular candidate with anyone except the party elite and the check-writers, the smoke-filled room guys. And not even all of those necessarily. Ron Paul actually does have quite a lot of support, to the extent that many of the state parties had to actually suppress his followers to keep them from loving up Romney's nomination. The thing is it's a mile deep and an inch wide - he pulls a reliable 10-15% and maybe an extra 10-20% on top of that here and there, but no more. Of course the only 2012 candidate who reliably managed to bring home the bacon was Romney, and the party having already ordained his coronation had a ton to do with that. Paul MaudDib fucked around with this message at 22:34 on Jan 27, 2014 |
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Jan 27, 2014 22:07
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Raskolnikov38 posted:Hypothetically if tomorrow Obama really wanted to drive himself to go get a burger what would the secret service even do to stop him? Not give him the car keys? He NEVER drives himself. He doesn't have car keys.
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Jan 27, 2014 22:17
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I'm really amazed that so many here are poo-poohing Christie's candidacy because of a relatively mild scandal that emerged more than 2 years before the first primary. You all have more faith in the collective memory in the American voting populace than I do I guess.
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Jan 27, 2014 22:18
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Raskolnikov38 posted:Hypothetically if tomorrow Obama really wanted to drive himself to go get a burger what would the secret service even do to stop him? Well, if "The West Wing" is to be believed, there are certain things that the Secret Service will physically stop the President from doing (or compel him to do if the situation calls for it). ManifunkDestiny posted:I'm really amazed that so many here are poo-poohing Christie's candidacy because of a relatively mild scandal that emerged more than 2 years before the first primary. You all have more faith in the collective memory in the American voting populace than I do I guess. The floodgates opened after the bridge scandal broke (see: Carl Lewis, Dawn Zimmer, Sandy relief aid misuse), and if you don't think Christie's rivals in the primary will use this against him... And it stopped being a "minor scandal" when it caused the death of an old woman in an ambulance on the way to the hospital AND held up the search for a missing child. Fritz Coldcockin fucked around with this message at 22:22 on Jan 27, 2014 |
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Jan 27, 2014 22:19
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Alter Ego posted:Well, if "The West Wing" is to be believed, there are certain things that the Secret Service will physically stop the President from doing (or compel him to do if the situation calls for it). Or you could choose to believe Scandal, wherein the President can leave the office at any time to drive over to Olivia's apartment and few people notice.
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Jan 27, 2014 22:26
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StarMagician posted:Or you could choose to believe Scandal, wherein the President can leave the office at any time to drive over to Olivia's apartment and few people notice. Was it Kyrgyzstan they needed airspace from to invade Egypt or something similarly completely insane?
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Jan 28, 2014 00:28
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Alter Ego posted:OK, he doesn't get elected to the Presidency AGAIN. Or, alternately, he doesn't get elected to the Presidency in the age of the Internet, 24-hour cable news, and smartphones. Happy? I'm not so sure. Nixon had some good staff. I'm guessing that the Nixon '68 campaign's media adviser, Roger Ailes, could probably help him navigate the world of 24-hour cable news.
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Jan 28, 2014 00:40
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Meanwhile, in media consultancy, Clinton spokesman Phillipe Reines answers a BuzzFeed questionnaire on behalf of the not-yet-a-candidate. quote:The links in Reines’ email go to a drawing of a bull, the Pulitzer Prize entry page, the Grammys awards page, and a few images of the former secretary. Joementum fucked around with this message at 00:48 on Jan 28, 2014 |
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Jan 28, 2014 00:44
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Joementum posted:Meanwhile, in media consultancy, Clinton spokesman Phillipe Reines answers a BuzzFeed questionnaire on behalf of the not-yet-a-candidate. An email strongly implying that car usage has become more common since 1996, you say? http://www.ssti.us/2013/02/per-capita-vmt-ticks-down-for-eighth-straight-year/ quote:Per capita vehicle-miles traveled in the United States dropped by 0.4 percent in 2012, according to the FHWA’s travel trends data released Friday. I see Ben Smith's fingerprints all over this inane garbage.
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Jan 28, 2014 02:20
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ManifunkDestiny posted:I'm really amazed that so many here are poo-poohing Christie's candidacy because of a relatively mild scandal that emerged more than 2 years before the first primary. You all have more faith in the collective memory in the American voting populace than I do I guess. I'm amazed anyone thought he had a chance in the first place.
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Jan 28, 2014 08:13
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ManifunkDestiny posted:I'm really amazed that so many here are poo-poohing Christie's candidacy because of a relatively mild scandal that emerged more than 2 years before the first primary. You all have more faith in the collective memory in the American voting populace than I do I guess. It might drop out of memory, but you can't honestly think that he won't get hit with this like poo poo ton of bricks. People are going to go to jail over the bridge scandal, they might go to jail over the Hoboken incident, and if one document comes out that links Christie to either his career is done. In a lot of way Christie was the man to beat for 2016 in his party. Sure he was seen as too liberal, but when the crazies came out Christie was really going to be seen as the sensible, moderate choice in the same way that Romney was. Every single republican is going to hammer him with this, because at best he is incompetent at managing his staff.
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Jan 28, 2014 09:18
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Obama has driven a car in office, the Secret Service just closed the gates.
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Jan 28, 2014 09:24
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Presidents are truly the most persecuted political prisoners in a modern democracy  It's an interesting parallel to me because over here the royal family doesn't get to vote.
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Jan 28, 2014 10:29
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ManifunkDestiny posted:I'm really amazed that so many here are poo-poohing Christie's candidacy because of a relatively mild scandal that emerged more than 2 years before the first primary. You all have more faith in the collective memory in the American voting populace than I do I guess. Just release a documentary about the event about a month before the primary, and he's done. Even if nothing officially links him to the scandal it's pretty easy to fire up the outrage machine.
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Jan 28, 2014 14:35
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Joementum posted:Meanwhile, in media consultancy, Clinton spokesman Phillipe Reines answers a BuzzFeed questionnaire on behalf of the not-yet-a-candidate. I will admit: I respect this guy's style. Also, that BuzzFeed 'journalist' reads like a moron.
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Jan 28, 2014 15:21
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mastervj posted:I will admit: I respect this guy's style. Also, that BuzzFeed 'journalist' reads like a moron. Her last job was at The Washington Free Beacon
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Jan 28, 2014 17:28
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Yeah so. Get in.
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Jan 28, 2014 17:31
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Pinterest Mom posted:Yeah so. Get in. If Nixon can turn it around in 8 years surely a rich man can turn it around in 4!
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Jan 28, 2014 18:27
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You know, if he comes back seeking to turn the party around and out-progressive the Democrats it would not only be a winning presidential tactic but he'd be one of the only people able to do it since he could shrug off donors threatening to bail. But who am I kidding, he'll just show up in the primary and people will turn their noses up at him because of his 2012 loss. They were already holding their noses and voting for him, he was already holding his nose and bullshitting the crazy base with poo poo they wanted to hear, he's not going to be the nominee. Not with people like Randpaul and Raf Cruz. E: and Nixon was given a golden opportunity in '68, what with the Democratic party ripping itself into pieces over the war and racism, Wallace taking the South, and Johnson not withdrawing until March of 68. It was an epic clusterfuck and had Nixon lost he would have probably gotten stabbed by someone for losing in the face of such an opportunity. FAUXTON fucked around with this message at 18:56 on Jan 28, 2014 |
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Jan 28, 2014 18:47
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Mitt's one of the few people who could finance their own campaign. He only gave his 2012 campaign a short term loan, which was paid back, saving himself from the soaking he took in 2008, but there's still millions sitting La Jolla next to the new ocean deck and the car elevator. I doubt he'll do it, since Tagg and Ann had to drag him in to 2012. Sounds like a hopeful donor. The Newt 2012 donor group tried to float a similar rumor late last year, which is even more (profoundly) silly.
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Jan 28, 2014 18:58
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Joementum posted:Mitt's one of the few people who could finance their own campaign. He only gave his 2012 campaign a short term loan, which was paid back, saving himself from the soaking he took in 2008, but there's still millions sitting La Jolla next to the new ocean deck and the car elevator. I doubt he'll do it, since Tagg and Ann had to drag him in to 2012. Sounds like a hopeful donor. The Newt 2012 donor group tried to float a similar rumor late last year, which is even more (profoundly) silly. Newt's not interested in running again? It's not like he took it particularly seriously last time.
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Jan 28, 2014 20:17
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OneThousandMonkeys posted:Newt's not interested in running again? It's not like he took it particularly seriously last time. Dude has a pretty good gig going as the ~*~centrist Republican~*~ on CNN.
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Jan 28, 2014 20:24
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Joementum posted:Mitt's one of the few people who could finance their own campaign. He only gave his 2012 campaign a short term loan, which was paid back, saving himself from the soaking he took in 2008, but there's still millions sitting La Jolla next to the new ocean deck and the car elevator. I doubt he'll do it, since Tagg and Ann had to drag him in to 2012. Sounds like a hopeful donor. The Newt 2012 donor group tried to float a similar rumor late last year, which is even more (profoundly) silly.
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Jan 28, 2014 21:21
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Joementum posted:Mitt's one of the few people who could finance their own campaign. He only gave his 2012 campaign a short term loan, which was paid back, saving himself from the soaking he took in 2008, but there's still millions sitting La Jolla next to the new ocean deck and the car elevator. I doubt he'll do it, since Tagg and Ann had to drag him in to 2012. Sounds like a hopeful donor. The Newt 2012 donor group tried to float a similar rumor late last year, which is even more (profoundly) silly. In "Mitt", Tagg (I think.. who can even loving keep TrackPalin of Republicans' childrens' names?) said something about how the car elevator was for Ann's MS. I don't have MS but I do use a wheelchair, and while my car/home setup is paid for by the state, it's very minimal since I don't need much. If I did have the money, I'd trick that poo poo out like no tomorrow, so honestly I don't blame them. Is there any confirmation about the car elevator for her disability? Because if it is, I'd imagine there could have been a pretty good comeback for that. Think Muskie, only without the snowflake tears. And possibly effective.
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Jan 28, 2014 21:48
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dinoputz posted:In "Mitt", Tagg (I think.. who can even loving keep TrackPalin of Republicans' childrens' names?) said something about how the car elevator was for Ann's MS. I don't have MS but I do use a wheelchair, and while my car/home setup is paid for by the state, it's very minimal since I don't need much. If I did have the money, I'd trick that poo poo out like no tomorrow, so honestly I don't blame them. Is there any confirmation about the car elevator for her disability? Because if it is, I'd imagine there could have been a pretty good comeback for that. Think Muskie, only without the snowflake tears. And possibly effective. They already claimed the dancing horse was for Ann's MS (and got a substantial tax write-off for it), so I suspect even Mitt was dimly aware that he'd overplayed that particular card. Captain_Maclaine fucked around with this message at 22:53 on Jan 28, 2014 |
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Jan 28, 2014 22:14
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Captain_Maclaine posted:They already claimed the dancing horse was for Ann's MS (and got a substantial tax write-off for it), so I suspect even Mitt was dimly aware that he'd played overplayed that particular card. Wow, in that case I would have loved to have seen the card played, and once again the narrative moves back to the taxes. That would have been a great conversation to have shown in the puff piece...
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Jan 28, 2014 22:51
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Pinterest Mom posted:Yeah so. Get in. Mitt had his chance, and the only way the party establishment forgives him for losing to the black guy is if there is literally no one else and the ham sandwich has already suspended its campaign.
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Jan 28, 2014 23:15
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Pfirti86 posted:That was somewhat unique, in that Giuliani seemed determined to have the dumbest campaign strategy of all time (didn't he skip all the early primaries and caucases to focus on Florida, just to bomb spectacularly?) and was percieved as 'too liberal' on culture warrior stuff (the guy was pro-choice for Christ's sake). I doubt Christie will be that stupid, and I think he's pretty standard Republican fare when it comes to stuff like abortion/LGBT-bashing/"family values"/etc.* I still don't think that the focus on Florida strategy was terrible. Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada. None of those are good states for him. The key downfall of the strategy was that talking heads thought it was dumb and said as much so that when it came time for Floridians to vote most had lost faith in his ability to win. If he had won the state he would have had more convention delegates than would have been gotten from winning the other four states combined.
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Jan 29, 2014 07:38
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The big issue with Giuliani was that the more time he spent in any state, the lower his poll numbers got there. He was a terrible candidate, nothing could have saved him. Biden's "noun, verb, 9/11" quip helped to bury him.
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Jan 29, 2014 07:42
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dinoputz posted:In "Mitt", Tagg (I think.. who can even loving keep TrackPalin of Republicans' childrens' names?) said something about how the car elevator was for Ann's MS. From the tone of his voice in the documentary, it seemed to me like he was joking about using that as an excuse to make democrats who brought it up sound like jerks. (At least that was the way I interpreted it). I think most of the little things the campaigns got angry about were pretty weak. Didn't one of the "tell-all" books say that Ann got really excited when someone said she "hadn't worked a day in her life," because then she could act all outraged about it.
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Jan 29, 2014 09:21
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