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Adar posted:That model is bad. Okay, midterm voters tend to vote for the opposition party. Why? Who cares, let's just assume that's what will happen and build a model on it. A lot of Bush's unpopularity came from the right and it's see how that worked out. No amount of handwaving can get past the fact that an unpopular sitting president is a liability.
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Jan 28, 2014 12:16
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Re: Kay Hagan and her travails I'd venture to guess, and bort can back me up, that Tillis and Brannon are subbing for "Generic Republican" right now. Hagan is getting bombarded with commercials on Obamacare, and thus voters are inclined toward Default Republican. Neither is a very good generic R. Tillis is a shitheel with a typical Charlotte Boring-As-Hell Lake Norman background, and a bunch of awful comments about "turning disabled people against each other to allow us to end benefits to freeloaders" and unpopular legislation to his name (though I guarantee this year he tries to push teacher raises, only to get slapped by Berger). Brannon is insane. Neither will survive long as Generic R.
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Jan 28, 2014 16:19
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Yeah pretty much. Neither have any statewide name recognition so far. Tillis has avoided all the GOP candidate forums and is basically acting as if he's already the candidate, which probably isn't the worst play, though it hurts his chances at avoiding a likely runoff, where Brannon could muster grassroots support to pull off the upset. On the other hand saying the state should appeal the recent federal ruling against mandatory abortion ultrasounds up to SCOTUS won't convince people he's not a fringe social conservative. Alec Bald Snatch fucked around with this message at 18:09 on Jan 28, 2014 |
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Jan 28, 2014 18:07
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And thanks again y'all, really appreciate your inputs!
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Jan 28, 2014 18:19
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dilbertschalter posted:A lot of Bush's unpopularity came from the right and it's see how that worked out. No amount of handwaving can get past the fact that an unpopular sitting president is a liability.  It's not THIS bad: http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-universitybut it's the same kind of bad.
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Jan 28, 2014 18:26
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There have only been 3 6th year midterms since 1960, so the sample size is extremely small. And in 1998, Clinton was still dealing with the after-effects of the impeachment, while Bush was historically unpopular in 2006.
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Jan 28, 2014 21:00
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Connie Mack says he will not run for his old seat in Congress. Mack gave it up in his unsuccessful bid to unseat Bill Nelson in the Senate back in 2012. Mack's replacement was, of course, Trey Radel. Frankly, I'm mostly surprised Rick Scott is even giving this a special election instead of just waiting for November. It's a solid R district so it doesn't run the risk of flipping, and November is only 10 months away. Just seems like a waste. In slightly related news, anti-Alex Sink ads have invaded my Hulu Plus watching. I'll give the GOP credit, they really seem organized to keep that seat in Republican hands. I've barely seen a thing from the Sink campaign, I wonder if she's going Martha Coakley on us. Democrats in Florida really, really suck. 
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Jan 29, 2014 16:27
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Ballz posted:Connie Mack says he will not run for his old seat in Congress. Mack gave it up in his unsuccessful bid to unseat Bill Nelson in the Senate back in 2012. Mack's replacement was, of course, Trey Radel. Judging from her newsletter (which I think I'm still on from her gubernatorial run), she's doing more face-time events with the district locals.
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Jan 29, 2014 16:56
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dilbertschalter posted:A lot of Bush's unpopularity came from the right and it's see how that worked out. No amount of handwaving can get past the fact that an unpopular sitting president is a liability. Not when he was president it didn't. They only discovered they didn't like him after Obama was elected.
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Jan 29, 2014 22:55
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Is PPP considered a poo poo pollster now or is that another pollster I was thinking of?quote:McConnell Has One-Point Lead In Re-election Fight http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/poll-mcconnell-has-one-point-lead-in-reelection-fight
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Jan 29, 2014 23:20
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There's some debate about PPP as a pollster, but even if you like them, that's not one of their "neutral" polls, that's an internal from a Democratic advocacy committee.
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Jan 29, 2014 23:23
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PPP is the Schrodinger's cat of pollsters. Both poo poo and stellar, simultaneously, at all times. But yeah that's paid polling for a PAC. The race may be one of the closest McConnell's faced in a while but it ain't a one point race. Kentuckians don't even know Kynect is the (Kentucky-fried) PPACA.
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Jan 29, 2014 23:30
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IIRC, John Sides (of Monkey Cage fame) gave Grimes a 5% chance to win. EDIT: My bad, I had the number wrong. It was 3%. That was according to Cook. This is way more optimistic. ufarn fucked around with this message at 23:44 on Jan 29, 2014 |
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Jan 29, 2014 23:41
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I've heard from some knowledgeable people on this forum that PPP is highly accurate in their surveys immediately before an election, but is less accurate further out from when people actually vote. I never understood how "accuracy" is measured in the latter case considering there is no election result in the near-term time frame in which the poll's numbers can be compared and assessed.
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Jan 29, 2014 23:49
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Edible Hat posted:I've heard from some knowledgeable people on this forum that PPP is highly accurate in their surveys immediately before an election, but is less accurate further out from when people actually vote. I never understood how "accuracy" is measured in the latter case considering there is no election result in the near-term time frame in which the poll's numbers can be compared and assessed. It's not really a good way to criticize a pollster because there's a campaign season going on while they're doing that "inaccurate" part. What you could say is that there are radical shifts to methodology close to an election to give undue credibility to the earlier polls.
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Jan 29, 2014 23:58
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Edible Hat posted:I've heard from some knowledgeable people on this forum that PPP is highly accurate in their surveys immediately before an election, but is less accurate further out from when people actually vote. I never understood how "accuracy" is measured in the latter case considering there is no election result in the near-term time frame in which the poll's numbers can be compared and assessed. The Entire Universe posted:It's not really a good way to criticize a pollster because there's a campaign season going on while they're doing that "inaccurate" part. What you could say is that there are radical shifts to methodology close to an election to give undue credibility to the earlier polls. That's a very kind way of putting it. Another way of putting it is that they put their thumb on the scale so their results match the polling average and are not forthcoming about how they do their sample weighting. And they also won't release polls if they don't match the current average. Their methodology is...questionable. I haven't seen anyone who isn't PPP/Republican pollsters poll KY so I don't have any idea what the numbers are yet. edit: Nate Silver called them out very directly on twitter last year. http://twitchy.com/2013/09/13/nate-silver-slams-ppp-again-but-will-continue-to-use-its-polls-in-his-polling-averages/ and http://twitchy.com/2013/09/11/nate-silver-blasts-public-policy-polling-for-suppressing-pro-recall-poll-result/ Nate Silver (from Twitter) posted:
Nate Cohen of TNR also slammed them. Nate Cohen posted:After examining PPP’s polls from 2012 and conducting a lengthy exchange with PPP’s director, I’ve found that PPP withheld controversial elements of its methodology, to the extent it even has one, and treated its data inconsistently. The racial composition of PPP’s surveys was informed by whether respondents voted for Obama or John McCain in 2008, even though it wasn’t stated in its methodology. PPP then deleted the question from detailed releases to avoid criticism. Throughout its seemingly successful run, PPP used amateurish weighting techniques that distorted its samples—embracing a unique, ad hoc philosophy that, time and time again, seemed to save PPP from producing outlying results. The end result is unscientific and unsettling. http://www.newrepublic.com/article/114682/ppp-polling-methodology-opaque-flawed axeil fucked around with this message at 00:28 on Jan 30, 2014 |
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Jan 30, 2014 00:20
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axeil posted:That's a very kind way of putting it. Another way of putting it is that they put their thumb on the scale so their results match the polling average and are not forthcoming about how they do their sample weighting. The real problem is that there is no way to evaluate a pre-election poll unless you have access to their detailed methodology. It's too easy to find reasons to dismiss outcomes you don't like. It's better to accept them all, but remain skeptical and refrain from attaching too much significance to any one poll. The PPP poll suggests the race is close, and probably within 5 points either way, but doesn't really mean anything beyond that. We're still a long way from the election so even if a poll is dead accurate, it doesn't really mean anything.
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Jan 30, 2014 00:26
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Deteriorata posted:The real problem is that there is no way to evaluate a pre-election poll unless you have access to their detailed methodology. It's too easy to find reasons to dismiss outcomes you don't like. It's better to accept them all, but remain skeptical and refrain from attaching too much significance to any one poll. Agreed. I'm not sure if averaging PPP's stuff and the Republican surveys gives us a good picture but a race within 5 points 9 months or so before the election isn't a very useful gauge. I'm willing to place more stock in Cook's rating of the seat than I am polling at this point.
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Jan 30, 2014 00:29
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Rep. Henry Waxman, who represents parts of L.A., is retiring after about 40 years in Congress. It's D+11 so it'll be safe for the Dems. Edit: Wikipedia indicates he had a halfway serious challenger in the 2012 election, defeating independent candidate Bill Bloomfield, 54-46 percent (no Republican ran). I don't know anything about Bloomfield, so I dunno if he was running to the left or to the right of Waxman. Ballz fucked around with this message at 17:15 on Jan 30, 2014 |
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Jan 30, 2014 17:12
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Waxman and George Miller (also retiring) were the last Watergate Babies remaining in the House. Truly the end of an era for the Democratic conference.
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Jan 30, 2014 17:19
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And for what it's worth, I did a lil' bit of googling on Waxman's 2012 challenger and while he was a self-funded independent, he was previously a Republican which makes me wonder if the district could be more competitive than it first appears to be. Maybe some SoCal goons could chime in.
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Jan 30, 2014 17:36
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Ballz posted:And for what it's worth, I did a lil' bit of googling on Waxman's 2012 challenger and while he was a self-funded independent, he was previously a Republican which makes me wonder if the district could be more competitive than it first appears to be. Maybe some SoCal goons could chime in. It shows that the California GOP is in such an awful state that in plenty of places they're running as independents since they can't hack it in their own party anymore 
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Jan 30, 2014 18:07
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Yeah the CA GOP is currently a wreck, I wouldn't expect them to put up too much of a fight for Waxman's district.
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Jan 30, 2014 18:21
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:It shows that the California GOP is in such an awful state that in plenty of places they're running as independents since they can't hack it in their own party anymore That's like the local Dems where I used to live in Virginia. It was a heavily R dominated region, but a lot of Independents would win County Board elections on platforms basically identical to a moderate Dem. Turns out a platform of "more local school funding, funded by a sales tax increase, and more parks and libraries" sells well among rural crowds if just not accompanied by the DEMONcrat label.
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Jan 30, 2014 18:44
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mcmagic posted:Not when he was president it didn't. They only discovered they didn't like him after Obama was elected. By his second term there was indeed quite a bit of dissatisfaction in him with the right. (Who shot down Harriet Miers' Supreme Court appointment? It wasn't the Democrats)
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Jan 30, 2014 18:51
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Wrong thread.
ufarn fucked around with this message at 19:05 on Jan 30, 2014 |
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Jan 30, 2014 18:55
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Patter Song posted:By his second term there was indeed quite a bit of dissatisfaction in him with the right. (Who shot down Harriet Miers' Supreme Court appointment? It wasn't the Democrats) It wasn't until his lame duck period. Miers started it, Katrina confirmed it, and then the attempt at immigration reform in 2006 killed his position as a leader. That's not to say they would have rebelled against him for any other reason except in order to go further right (as in immigration reforms case).
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Jan 30, 2014 20:15
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SS privatization was the beginning of the end for Bush. Oh man those town hall meetings watching those handpicked old peoples' faces as it slowly dawns on them what their guy was planning to do.
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Jan 30, 2014 20:30
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De Nomolos posted:It wasn't until his lame duck period. Miers started it, Katrina confirmed it, and then the attempt at immigration reform in 2006 killed his position as a leader. That's not to say they would have rebelled against him for any other reason except in order to go further right (as in immigration reforms case).
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Jan 30, 2014 20:36
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So WaPo is reporting that Sandra Fluke has been asked, and is considering, to run for Waxman's seat. Henry Waxman is retiring afterwards this term, after a distinguished career on Capitol Hill Does anyone know how she stands on non Women's Issues?
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Jan 31, 2014 00:44
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Raskolnikov38 posted:Yeah the CA GOP is currently a wreck, I wouldn't expect them to put up too much of a fight for Waxman's district. California has jungle primaries now, so it'll be the top 2 democrats against each other in the general, if there's a contested primary.
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Jan 31, 2014 01:18
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Rygar201 posted:So WaPo is reporting that Sandra Fluke has been asked, and is considering, to run for Waxman's seat. Henry Waxman is retiring afterwards this term, after a distinguished career on Capitol Hill I know Sandra (not, like, friends, but at the same school at the same time and we talked some) and she's a solidly liberal (not leftist) person. She's also smart enough to understand how politics works and how to get things to happen, so don't expect her to act like a bomb throwing socialist, or even a Sanders. (We never talked economic issues that I can recall, so my read on her might be off on that front.)
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Jan 31, 2014 01:22
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Was that Georgetown or undergrad? If law school, was she active in ACS or NLG (I can only pray she was in NLG).
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Jan 31, 2014 02:46
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She did some NLG-sponsored events, if I remember right, but GULC NLG was pretty toxic while I was there (couple people from my class year in NLG leadership who alienated a lot of people) so I don't recall her being heavily involved in it. She was also part of Georgetown Dems, so again, there's a certain amount of hedging you probably want to do. (It is entirely possible she had more or less involvement with NLG than I remember, I wasn't involved in NLG at all so it's pretty much just my memory from several years ago.)
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Jan 31, 2014 03:24
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comes along bort posted:SS privatization was the beginning of the end for Bush. Oh man those town hall meetings watching those handpicked old peoples' faces as it slowly dawns on them what their guy was planning to do.
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Jan 31, 2014 03:28
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De Nomolos posted:It wasn't until his lame duck period. Miers started it, Katrina confirmed it, and then the attempt at immigration reform in 2006 killed his position as a leader. That's not to say they would have rebelled against him for any other reason except in order to go further right (as in immigration reforms case). Katrina was the real straw as his poll numbers took a dive and never recovered. Also there was a VA Gov's election that was a bell-weather for what was about to happen to him.
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Jan 31, 2014 05:32
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The New Hampshire Republican Party is wants Scott Brown to stop teasing. Their filing deadline is June 13 
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Feb 1, 2014 00:54
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Michigan CEO in chief Rick Snyder launches his re election campaign tomorrow. Tonight on the Superbowl he has a $600k ad running because that worked so well for him in 2010. It did. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ty-0zaKcWj0 The same man who made the infamous Hoekstra Debbie Spenditnow ad in 2012 also made this ad. No racism, but there's a great "goofy scuba face" at the beginning and a voiceover that sounds like the guy who did all those episodes of 1960's Batman got another gig.
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Feb 2, 2014 20:05
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What the hell is with that mall saxophone music they use in that ad?
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Feb 2, 2014 20:13
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I guess it's easy to claim you created more jobs when people are still leaving your state in droves.
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Feb 2, 2014 21:17
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