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I'm not a big TA guy but the SPY really blew through the 100 DMA resistance today, looks ridiculously bearish to me at this point.
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Feb 3, 2014 19:25
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nebby posted:I'm not a big TA guy but the SPY really blew through the 100 DMA resistance today, looks ridiculously bearish to me at this point. Also, 21+ on the VIX 
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Feb 3, 2014 19:51
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I like this action in the market. We needed some breathing after last year rally.
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Feb 3, 2014 20:45
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R.A. Dickey posted:While you are correct in that my thesis includes no insider information, I disagree with the notion that individual stocks cannot get mispriced from time to time. Identifying those opportunities is generally referred to as investing. quote:I like this action in the market. We needed some breathing after last year rally.  . There are a lot of good buys in multi-national large caps as everyone flips out about emerging markets. Tax return where are you!quote:I'm not a big TA guy but the SPY really blew through the 100 DMA resistance today, looks ridiculously bearish to me at this point.
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Feb 4, 2014 01:22
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Leperflesh posted:I suspect most people don't do active trading with the money they've earmarked for retirement. Well I hope at least the people in this thread would - again, unless I'm missing something about capital gains...
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Feb 4, 2014 05:33
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mindphlux posted:Well I hope at least the people in this thread would - again, unless I'm missing something about capital gains... Beating a benchmark in the long run is next to impossible. Unless you are tailoring your portfolio to a custom level of risk or income, trading on your retirement fund is going to be unproductive.
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Feb 4, 2014 05:39
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mindphlux posted:Well I hope at least the people in this thread would - again, unless I'm missing something about capital gains... I put a lot of it in high dividend stocks (mreits) to take advantage of no taxes, but that didnt work out too well for me this past year. Its not a huge part of my overall portfolio before anyone lectures me 
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Feb 4, 2014 05:50
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Cheesemaster200 posted:Beating a benchmark in the long run is next to impossible. Unless you are tailoring your portfolio to a custom level of risk or income, trading on your retirement fund is going to be unproductive. what alright I must be missing something. I'm reading this as 'why even trade individual stocks, just invest in an ETF' which fair enough, but then why this thread. or individual investing period.
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Feb 4, 2014 06:38
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mindphlux posted:what People like to gamble
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Feb 4, 2014 07:45
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mindphlux posted:what Basically, yes. But this is complicated and you'd do best reading something like the Four Pillars to really get a perspective on it. You can beat market returns with stock picks. That single sentence is so loaded that it's hard to express. In short, you are missing something, an understanding of how investment/speculation works.
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Feb 4, 2014 12:31
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mindphlux posted:what
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Feb 4, 2014 17:41
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Who else is in on Tableau? I am eagerly awaiting earnings tonight...please don't crush my gains 
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Feb 4, 2014 17:42
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YeahDavidLeeRoth posted:Who else is in on Tableau? I am eagerly awaiting earnings tonight...please don't crush my gains Yo 
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Feb 4, 2014 17:49
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cowofwar posted:Most people in this thread are invested in index funds of some sort and speculate on individual stocks with a smaller portion of their portfolio. Also, this is just good advice. Although, it's perfectly easy to speculate buying only index funds. I bought a currency hedged Nikkei fund right after Abe took over essentially betting he would improve the economy or at least tank the yen (he did both). One can also bet macro trends by just swapping between cash and QQQ or a SPX fund.
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Feb 4, 2014 19:49
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Pretty sure JCP is about to be my next NOK play. Why do I do this to myself?
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Feb 4, 2014 20:18
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mindphlux posted:what I'll elaborate, but just a little bit. You have a fixed amount of money you can add to your tax-advantaged accounts each year (assuming you're in the US). This is your IRA/Roth IRA and, if available, employer-sponsored accounts like 401(k)s. Access to withdrawal of these funds is generally restricted, too: you pay penalties for taking it out early, with a few specific exceptions. If you have any money left over in your monthly budget after covering your basic survival costs, you should be investing for retirement. You're going to need that money. It's important. So: first, you should probably be fairly conservative with your retirement funds. The younger you are, the more risk you can afford to take, but the general theme of your retirement investing should be socking away as much as you can, getting good annual returns over a period of decades, and not loving up your retirement by losing half of it somewhere. Importantly, if you do gently caress up and lose a big chunk of that money, you can't replace it because of the annual contribution limits. Even if you earn more money (in your job, or in your other investments) you can't exceed the contribution limits in a given year. OK, so if you're saving enough for your retirement - and that probably means maxing out all of the tax-advantaged options available to you - and you still have disposable income left over, then sure, play the stock market. You're taking on much higher risk than you would with the reserve you're keeping for retirement, but it's OK because you've done your duty to your future self by securing his comfort in old age, and now you can try your hand at beating the market and getting some extra income, build wealth, or whatever your goal might be. Now, there are scenarios where it might make sense to trade individual stocks in your retirement accounts. Baddog mentioned that he's using the fact that his retirement account is tax-advantaged by shifting that portion of his portfolio that involves lots of dividends into those accounts. But that's only possible for him to do because he has both a substantial (I assume) retirement portfolio, and tax-exposed investments, and he's probably also relying on the fact that his dividend-paying stocks are pretty reliable blue-chip type investments, and even then it's probably not the majority of his retirement funds. So, do this: Tony Montana posted:Basically, yes. But this is complicated and you'd do best reading something like the Four Pillars to really get a perspective on it. Maybe also read up in The Long-Term Investing and Retirement Savings Thread. Recognize that a lot of data shows that small-time individual stock market investors consistently fail to beat the long-term returns of a broad-based, low-fee index fund. Know what you're planning to do for retirement, how much risk tolerance you have with that money, and then decide if you really want to be trading on individual stocks using your tax-advantaged accounts. If so, nobody here is going to yell at you about it; it's your money, do what you want. I think it's fair to say though that nobody here wants to give potentially inappropriate advice to an investor who maybe isn't as clear as he should be on the overall topics of portfolio management, risk management, retirement savings, etc. e. Mindphlux, I just clicked the question mark and you've been posting/trading in this thread for at least a couple or three years, so I hope none of the above strikes you as condescending. Maybe it's just a post for people who wander into this thread and got the idea that day trading stocks with their IRA is a great plan, instead of just a post for you. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 21:16 on Feb 4, 2014 |
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Feb 4, 2014 20:55
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greasyhands posted:Pretty sure JCP is about to be my next NOK play. Why do I do this to myself? I'd say a trip through one will cure you of such crazy thoughts.
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Feb 4, 2014 21:42
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Could anyone give me a better explanation of why my friend's plan to "buy and sell inverse ETFs on a day-to-day basis" is a bad idea? I know Inverse ETFs in general are dangerous but I lack the knowledge to articulate it.
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Feb 4, 2014 21:51
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Cirrhosis Johnson posted:Could anyone give me a better explanation of why my friend's plan to "buy and sell inverse ETFs on a day-to-day basis" is a bad idea? I know Inverse ETFs in general are dangerous but I lack the knowledge to articulate it. Why is it a bad idea? If he wants to bet on the market making declines, that's one way to position yourself for it. Buying and holding them is a nonsense strategy.
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Feb 4, 2014 21:54
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Harry posted:I'd say a trip through one will cure you of such crazy thoughts. Well, a trip through wal-mart would make me want to kill myself also, but I wouldn't use that as an investment thesis. And its the next NOK play for me because it has lovely management and is a dying brand, but has a ton of assets and intrinsic value- not because I think its going to be a huge turnaround story.
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Feb 4, 2014 21:55
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Cirrhosis Johnson posted:Could anyone give me a better explanation of why my friend's plan to "buy and sell inverse ETFs on a day-to-day basis" is a bad idea? I know Inverse ETFs in general are dangerous but I lack the knowledge to articulate it.
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Feb 4, 2014 23:21
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greasyhands posted:Well, a trip through wal-mart would make me want to kill myself also, but I wouldn't use that as an investment thesis. And its the next NOK play for me because it has lovely management and is a dying brand, but has a ton of assets and intrinsic value- not because I think its going to be a huge turnaround story. Genuinely curious and not being snarky: What would be your exit plan or realistic end goal if you bought a good deal of JCP of it today? Every time I see JCP in the news I'm surprised they haven't gone tits up yet.
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Feb 5, 2014 00:17
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Keep an eye on the yield curves. 1 month is above the 3 and 6 now as of today. http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
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Feb 5, 2014 01:40
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Christobevii3 posted:Keep an eye on the yield curves. 1 month is above the 3 and 6 now as of today. Meh. Lets see how long it lasts if this correction loses speed. Everyone probably dumped their stocks and put it into short term bonds because they were too pussyfooted to go in longer duration treasuries. There is also so much distortion in the treasury market right now due to the taper that I would have a hard time calling an inverted curve... at least not yet.
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Feb 5, 2014 03:09
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dat dead cat bounce
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Feb 5, 2014 03:57
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YeahDavidLeeRoth posted:Who else is in on Tableau? I am eagerly awaiting earnings tonight...please don't crush my gains Awww yeah  . I'd sell now if I could trade after hours, but let's hope this continues tomorrow
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Feb 5, 2014 04:07
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Fellow DATA investor since the IPO. Everyone I know who uses the software is in love with it. Apollo_Creed fucked around with this message at 04:26 on Feb 5, 2014 |
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Feb 5, 2014 04:20
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Inverse Icarus posted:Genuinely curious and not being snarky: What would be your exit plan or realistic end goal if you bought a good deal of JCP of it today? Generally on a speculative play like this, I don't have an exit plan. I put the money in and wait. If it goes to 0, then it goes to 0 and I lose the bet. If it triples or quadruples over the next few year, then yeehaw. I suspect at these levels JCP will start trading like SHLD has the past few years, so if it starts gyrating back and forth in a range (look at SHLD between ~30 and 60 over the last 3 years.) without any significant fundamental improvements, I'll probably get out if I see a 50%+ gain. If I see the business making significant headway, I'll ride it out a while longer. I picked up some Feb 7th 4.50 calls today just to spit in the face of my longer term idea. greasyhands fucked around with this message at 04:55 on Feb 5, 2014 |
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Feb 5, 2014 04:50
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Leperflesh posted:I'll elaborate, but just a little bit. so, you're talking about all this stuff about socking away money, and 'you can't replace it if you lose it in an IRA', and none of it is really ringing true to me. or at very least, none of it is sounding relevant to my point of 'hey make a ton of short term gains in your IRA account where you don't have to pay capital gains on short term trades' the IRA contribution limit thing is a relevant point - but not really for any smart investor. for instance, if you're self employed and have an IRA (I am, and literally anyone could be if they had extra money and wanted to do their best with 'socking it away') the contribution limit is something like $17,500, or 25% of net earnings up to $50k/yr. so like last year I contributed something like 13k to my IRA, and I felt like I wasn't even scratching the surface of what I could do. I've saved all my life pretty diligently, and feel like I could completely re-fund my IRA to its current balance in 1-2 years if I really wanted to for some reason. I also don't understand why you think retirement money is so important, that you should 'sock' it away in a low interest ETF or mutual fund or something. It's money you won't (and pretty much can't) touch until you're loving 65 or something. why wouldn't you take the most risks with it, while the potential for the greatest payout (compounding interest, etc) is the greatest? and cumulative capital gains tax benefits will be the greatest? disclaimer, I'm 30. don't know what angle you're coming at this issue from. but again, I feel like my earning potential is going to be peaking within the next 5-10 years - why not take the most risk while I'm making tons of money and can easily afford to lose it? (or make massive gains?) in any case, none of the retirement-money-cautioning stuff really pertains to the 'take advantage of your tax-deferred accounts by doing short term trades in them' point, as far as I can tell. if you're going to be semi-actively trading, you'll be taking the gains and losses in one account or another, why not stick the short term gains in the tax deferred account? ps - to your postcount comment, I'm 30, I've been trading individual stocks since I was about 15. I don't think I am particularly knowledgeable about trading, but have almost always done really well in my investments and am careful about my research in the sectors I invest in. I've taken my savings from 5k to 200k in those 15 years, with about a 10% return on average per year for my last 5 years. nothing you've said strikes me as condescending, because I'm always trying to learn. I decided to ask these sort of basic questions because I really don't know the answer to them, and why pretend that I do? 
mindphlux fucked around with this message at 10:24 on Feb 5, 2014 |
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Feb 5, 2014 10:22
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mindphlux posted:I've taken my savings from 5k to 200k in those 15 years, with about a 10% return on average per year for my last 5 years. If you're going to do short term trades, I think you should do it in your retirement accounts as well. Just don't day trade away *all* of your tax advantaged assets. People are really hesitant to advise you to actively trade your retirement accounts because often that is where nearly all of a person's money is. Also, the S&P has been up an average of 16% over each of the last five years (its been a pretty good run since just about the absolute bottom of the 2008 crash). So your returns aren't all that great unless you're diversified into a lot of lower risk stuff.
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Feb 5, 2014 11:07
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Baddog posted:Also, the S&P has been up an average of 16% over each of the last five years (its been a pretty good run since just about the absolute bottom of the 2008 crash). So your returns aren't all that great unless you're diversified into a lot of lower risk stuff.
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Feb 5, 2014 11:13
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nebby posted:Please can we have a rule that if you are going to try to make claims about your alpha using relative metrics (or argue against someone's claim for alpha that way) you at least use things like sharpe or even better sortino ratio as well as max drawdown? It's not perfect but the "how did you do vs. the S&P return" schtick is just one step away on the dumbness scale from thinking a stock is expensive because the per-share price is high. Jesus christ man. The standard advice for your retirement money (actually any money) is to throw it into an S&P ETF, so when someone says they are killing it with X% returns every year, its an easy (and accessible) thing to use to show them that maybe they aren't doing as well as they think they are. I did say "unless you are diversified into a lot of lower risk stuff", so its not like I'm ignoring the fact that maybe the S&P 500 isn't the best comparison for his particular case. Although I'm willing to bet the beta of his day-to-day portfolio is pretty drat high (given that he said "why wouldn't you take the most risks with it"), so I'm probably being very generous. But why don't you go ahead and compute the sharpe and sortino ratios with the given information, and show us all how much better they are to use in this case.
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Feb 5, 2014 12:38
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Apollo_Creed posted:Fellow DATA investor since the IPO.  Will be interesting to see the action at opening bell on them. I have some Feb calls so I'll be watching it closely.
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Feb 5, 2014 14:34
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I know this is a good problem to have, but I'm trying to figure out what to do with my DATA common shares that are now up 25%. Trailing stop? Regular stop just below today's low? Or just hold on? Either way I still like the company - I'd plan to re-buy when it drops a little, but it's going to get overbought pretty fast at this rate.
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Feb 5, 2014 16:23
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Well I hope anyone still in 3D printing stocks took their profits already; bloodbath today
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Feb 5, 2014 16:49
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alnilam posted:I know this is a good problem to have, but I'm trying to figure out what to do with my DATA common shares that are now up 25%. Trailing stop? Regular stop just below today's low? Or just hold on? No one ever went broke taking profits. Just put a trailing stop and if it hits your stops respect them. Yes it can go higher and it can go lower but a 25% increase is pretty good. Do not give it back.
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Feb 5, 2014 16:49
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mindphlux posted:so, you're talking about all this stuff about socking away money, and 'you can't replace it if you lose it in an IRA', and none of it is really ringing true to me. or at very least, none of it is sounding relevant to my point of 'hey make a ton of short term gains in your IRA account where you don't have to pay capital gains on short term trades' Well, fair enough: clearly much of it isn't relevant to you, but I think based on your description that you're not very typical of American investors. Specifically: quote:the IRA contribution limit thing is a relevant point - but not really for any smart investor. for instance, if you're self employed and have an IRA (I am, and literally anyone could be if they had extra money and wanted to do their best with 'socking it away') the contribution limit is something like $17,500, or 25% of net earnings up to $50k/yr. Most investors aren't self-employed professional investors, they're people working regular jobs who have a retirement account such as an IRA, and maybe some extra cash available that they're willing to buy and sell stocks with. Most americans have little or no retirement savings at all; a huge majority have less saved for retirement than they're going to need, and almost none have so much saved for retirement - but also make so much money per year - that they can afford to lose it all and then replace it in two years' time. The individual IRA contribution limit is $5500. If that's all someone is saving for retirement, even if they're young they should probably not be investing in individual stocks, and certainly not day-trading it. Buying a fund like VTSMX for domestic stock exposure, plus VGTSX for international stock exposure, plus VBMFX for bond exposure, and adjusting asset allocation according to their age and risk tolerance, is probably the best plan for most investors' retirement savings. A lot of middle-class investors also have access to a 401(k) or other employer-sponsored vehicle, but many of those plans have very limited choices - often all basically horrible - and most of them don't have access to individual stocks (beyond the employer's own stock) although that is starting to change (my own 401(k) lets me link to eTrade if I want to trade individual stocks within the tax shelter). So yeah, I think I'm probably not addressing people like you, who have $200k saved inside a self-employed IRA, can afford to save $100k a year if you want to, are only 30, and (I assume) have lots of money outside your IRA as well. quote:so like last year I contributed something like 13k to my IRA, and I felt like I wasn't even scratching the surface of what I could do. I've saved all my life pretty diligently, and feel like I could completely re-fund my IRA to its current balance in 1-2 years if I really wanted to for some reason. I assume you're talking about a SEP, not a traditional or Roth IRA. As I said, only the self-employed can access that, and you'd have to be making $200k+ a year in order to put $25k a year into it to restore $200k in four years (two years is only possible if you're getting incredible returns on your investments, clearly). That's far more than the great majority of people can possibly contribute to a tax sheltered retirement plan. At $200k per year, you're in the top 2% of earners in America. Yes, I've seen the thread title, rich jerks itt, but I didn't assume that you were one of them, and if you are, I'll reiterate that my original statement - that most people shouldn't be taking large risks with their retirement savings - is intended for people who aren't in the top 2% of wage earners in the country, at age 30. quote:I also don't understand why you think retirement money is so important, that you should 'sock' it away in a low interest ETF or mutual fund or something. It's money you won't (and pretty much can't) touch until you're loving 65 or something. why wouldn't you take the most risks with it, while the potential for the greatest payout (compounding interest, etc) is the greatest? and cumulative capital gains tax benefits will be the greatest? disclaimer, I'm 30. don't know what angle you're coming at this issue from. but again, I feel like my earning potential is going to be peaking within the next 5-10 years - why not take the most risk while I'm making tons of money and can easily afford to lose it? (or make massive gains?) There has to be some level of risk that is appropriate for someone's retirement savings. What is it? Would you suggest someone who is under 30 leverage their retirement savings? If so, by how much? Is 2x leverage too much? 5x? 10x? Do you think what these guys are saying is correct? Maybe you're familiar with this story about a guy who gave that a try, with disastrous results. I think the amount of risk tolerance someone should have with their retirement funds should be proportional to the degree to which they're A) adequate for their retirement needs and B) replaceable in the event of a significant loss. For the large majority of Americans, A + B = be very conservative, even when young. That means sure, 80% or even 90% stocks, in the form of well-diversified mutual funds, but certainly not leverage and certainly not day-trading. quote:in any case, none of the retirement-money-cautioning stuff really pertains to the 'take advantage of your tax-deferred accounts by doing short term trades in them' point, as far as I can tell. if you're going to be semi-actively trading, you'll be taking the gains and losses in one account or another, why not stick the short term gains in the tax deferred account? Goes back to the original point: most people can only put in up to $5500 (as an individual) for their IRA, and if they have a 401(k), that still only adds another $17,500 per year. At $23k a year, if you lose a chunk of it, you can't ever get that early money back in - especially if you were already going to be putting in the max every year while working. Not blowing your early contributions means getting the most out of them over a 35-to-40-year typical savings life. quote:ps - to your postcount comment, I'm 30, I've been trading individual stocks since I was about 15. I don't think I am particularly knowledgeable about trading, but have almost always done really well in my investments and am careful about my research in the sectors I invest in. I've taken my savings from 5k to 200k in those 15 years, with about a 10% return on average per year for my last 5 years. nothing you've said strikes me as condescending, because I'm always trying to learn. I decided to ask these sort of basic questions because I really don't know the answer to them, and why pretend that I do? I'm certainly impressed - most impressed that you were already saving at age 15. I was unable to save anything until several years after I'd graduated college (and finished paying off my student loans). I dabbled in stocks anyway, starting at age 19, but I'm talking about no more than a couple thousand dollars. I think it's very good that you're still earnestly asking questions, because I think overconfidence and hubris are the qualities that sink most investors that wind up getting sunk. Baddog posted:Jesus christ man. The standard advice for your retirement money (actually any money) is to throw it into an S&P ETF, so when someone says they are killing it with X% returns every year, its an easy (and accessible) thing to use to show them that maybe they aren't doing as well as they think they are. I did say "unless you are diversified into a lot of lower risk stuff", so its not like I'm ignoring the fact that maybe the S&P 500 isn't the best comparison for his particular case. Although I'm willing to bet the beta of his day-to-day portfolio is pretty drat high (given that he said "why wouldn't you take the most risks with it"), so I'm probably being very generous. Yeah I'm interested too, because I still don't "get" how saying "hey, if you'd put all your money into a well-balanced portfolio consisting of low-cost index mutual funds, such as the Vanguard funds listed above, you'd have been more diversified, taken less risk, AND have better returns, than the actual returns you've realized by trading individual securities" is somehow wrong or dumb. If I have $100k in my retirement account and I am getting (say) $18% annualized return over the last five years, while also enjoying the low risk implied by such funds, how is that not categorically better in every way, than someone who is pleased at earning 10% a year over those five years through active trading of individual securities? Shouldn't someone who did the latter at least be considering whether they should have done the former? I'm genuinely asking because I feel like there's some kind of real, coherent point to be made. I'm certainly not a sophisticated investor, I've done some reading and I've dipped a toe into the water from time to time, but I'm nowhere near where the pros in this thread are, but my life experience has been that quite often, the conventional wisdom is at best incomplete and at worst outright wrong. If the conventional wisdom is "stocks = gambling, just buy a low-expense fund and let it ride" then I'm definitely open to hearing exactly how that's wrong. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 20:19 on Feb 5, 2014 |
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Feb 5, 2014 20:17
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District Selectman posted:Well I hope anyone still in 3D printing stocks took their profits already; bloodbath today I sold last week after the big drop.
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Feb 5, 2014 20:44
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Baddog posted:Jesus christ man. The standard advice for your retirement money (actually any money) is to throw it into an S&P ETF, so when someone says they are killing it with X% returns every year, its an easy (and accessible) thing to use to show them that maybe they aren't doing as well as they think they are. I did say "unless you are diversified into a lot of lower risk stuff", so its not like I'm ignoring the fact that maybe the S&P 500 isn't the best comparison for his particular case. Although I'm willing to bet the beta of his day-to-day portfolio is pretty drat high (given that he said "why wouldn't you take the most risks with it"), so I'm probably being very generous.
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Feb 5, 2014 22:20
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lightpole posted:I sold last week after the big drop. And then up 10% from the opening bell.
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Feb 5, 2014 23:03
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