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Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Brown Moses posted:

I've also been approached by an agent from ICM Partners who has a publisher interested in publishing a book written by me about my work, so no doubt this thread, and Something Awful in general, will feature.

Congrats man. Every time I look back at some of the arguments made in this thread during the immediate aftermath of the Ghouta attack, I always catch myself feeling disappointed that they wouldn't be recorded in the annals of history. Bullet dodged.

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Munin
Nov 14, 2004


Brown Moses posted:

Big CW in Syria news


Khan al-Assal was the subject of a report by the Russians which not only blamed the opposition, but also named the group and exact type of rocket responsible. Seems that was total poo poo. It's also worth noting this claim by Ake Sellstrom (page 3)

What evidence did the Russians say they had btw?

It's annoying how the gears of good evidence grind so slowly. By the time the good stuff has been put together by solid impartial experts the world has generally moved on and the narrative in peoples my set to what the headlines said at the time.

Muffiner
Sep 16, 2009

Fizzil posted:

There is no such thing as an alawi accent, the region has alot of sects and religions but generally they'd have regional accents and they would have identified it by whatever region these guys hail from. I'm not ruling this out yet, as an arab this is the first time i heard someone identifying people's language by sect, usually its by region or country.

There is, dialects and accents in Syria can pinpoint someone's origin down to their village, and in some cases down to a sect or neighbourhood. An 'Alewite' accent is usually a rural coastal accent notable for it's strong K/Gh (ق) sound. There is a similar level of variance in British English, but it's become less and less distinct and local over time.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Munin posted:

What evidence did the Russians say they had btw?

It's annoying how the gears of good evidence grind so slowly. By the time the good stuff has been put together by solid impartial experts the world has generally moved on and the narrative in peoples my set to what the headlines said at the time.

They claimed an on the ground investigation. Of course, the report was only given to the UN, with the main "findings" made public. It's also interesting the report was submitted to the OPCW investigation into the CW attacks, but in their report they couldn't even confirm the type of munition used let alone the specific type and who fired it, so the Russian report can't of been that convincing. Here's my thoughts from December on their claims

quote:

In July, Russia provided the UN with a 100-page report on their own investigation into the chemical attack in Khan al-Assal on March 19th 2013. While the report was not published, key findings were detailed by the Russian Foreign Ministry when the report was submitted, and also reiterated in an October statement by H.E. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations

quote:

It was established that on March 19 the rebels launched an unguided "Basha'ir-3" projectile towards Khan al-Assal controlled by the Government forces. As you know, 26 people were killed (16 of them were military personnel), 86 injured and intoxicated to different levels.
The results of the analysis clearly indicate that the ordnance used in Khan al-Assal was not industrially manufactured and was filled with sarin. The sarin technical specifications prove that it was not industrially manufactured either. The absence of chemical stabilizers in the samples of the detected toxic agents indicates their relatively recent production. The projectile involved is not a standard one for chemical use. Hexogen utilised as an opening charge is not used in standard ammunitions.
Therefore, there is every reason to believe that it was the armed opposition fighters who used chemical weapons in Khan al-Assal.
According to the information at our disposal, the production of "Basha'ir-3" unguided projectiles was started in February 2013 by the so-called "Basha'ir al-Nasr" brigade affiliated with the Free Syrian Army.
Not only did the Russian's claim it was a DIY rocket fired by the Syrian opposition, but even the specific type, "Basha'ir-3", and the group involved, the "Basha'ir al-Nasr" brigade. One would assume that as this claim is being made in relation to the 100-page report presented to the UN, the teams investigating the Khan al-Assal attack would be fully aware of the details on those rockets, which are incredibly specific. However, in the final report the picture is somewhat less clear

quote:

The United Nations Mission received contradicting information as to how chemical weapon agents were delivered in the Khan Al Asal incident. Witness statements collected by the UNHRC Commission of Inquiry, provided to the United Nations Mission, supported the position by the Syrian Arab Republic that a rocket was fired from the neighborhood. However, according to other witness statements to the UNHRC Commission of Inquiry, an overflying aircraft had dropped an aerial bomb filled with Sarin.
The United Nations Mission was not able to collect any primary information or any “untouched” artifacts relevant to the incident and necessary for an independent verification of the information gathered.
It goes on to say

quote:

The United Nations Mission received from the Government of the Russian Federation its report of the results of the analysis of samples obtained from Khan Al Asal from 23 to 25 March 2013, which identified Sarin and Sarin degradation products on metal fragments and in soil samples taken at the site of the incident.
For me, the question I have now is why the big difference between the UN report and the Russian report about which munition was used? It seems the type remains of the munition would be the best possible evidence of who was responsible, especially if the Russian's were able to figure out the exact type of munition, and which group uses them. If Russia had that level of detail, why is the UN report unclear on whether or not it was even a rocket that was responsible? It's also very interesting that the UN report also states

quote:

The team was open, however, to receiving any biomedical samples previously collected by the Syrian Government, which the United Nations Mission would authenticate through DNA tests.
No biomedical samples were handed over to the United Nations Mission by the Syrian Government.
So why did the Syrian Government fail to keep what would have been key evidence in the investigation? Either way, it seems that the Russian's must have the best possible evidence of opposition responsibility, and with the UN report failing to concur with their results, it's time that the Russian government publishes at least that part of their findings to clear up the discrepancies between the reports.
It's also worth noting Russia's initial claims

quote:

A homemade rocket with a poisonous substance that has not been identified yet – one similar to the rocket used by terrorists on March 19 in Khan al-Assal - was fired early on August 21 [at Damascus suburbs] from a position occupied by the insurgents,
Maybe they just didn't realise Volcano rockets were used by the government.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 13:35 on Mar 5, 2014

Radio Prune
Feb 19, 2010
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qy8NyEPZ2aQ&feature=youtu.be

Eerie

Pieter Pan
May 16, 2004
Bad faith argument here:
-------------------------------->
There's new evidence about the involvement of the Russian FSB in the murder of several ethnic Chechens in Turkey (2008-2011). The evidence also mentions other assassination targets in London, most likely Berezovsky (who killed himself last year) and Chechen exile Akhmed Zakayev. Both knew Litvinenko, who we know was killed by the FSB in 2006.

The X-man cometh
Nov 1, 2009

Muffiner posted:

There is, dialects and accents in Syria can pinpoint someone's origin down to their village, and in some cases down to a sect or neighbourhood. An 'Alewite' accent is usually a rural coastal accent notable for it's strong K/Gh (ق) sound. There is a similar level of variance in British English, but it's become less and less distinct and local over time.

Would an Alawite from Damascus have the same accent (due to family, etc. using it)? Or would it fade away due to living in the city?

Radio Prune
Feb 19, 2010

Pieter posted:

There's new evidence about the involvement of the Russian FSB in the murder of several ethnic Chechens in Turkey (2008-2011). The evidence also mentions other assassination targets in London, most likely Berezovsky (who killed himself last year) and Chechen exile Akhmed Zakayev. Both knew Litvinenko, who we know was killed by the FSB in 2006.

You might want to post this in the Eastern Europe thread too. Some people there will probably find it interesting.

Muffiner
Sep 16, 2009

The X-man cometh posted:

Would an Alawite from Damascus have the same accent (due to family, etc. using it)? Or would it fade away due to living in the city?

Usually people treat dialects as separate languages, so you rarely hear anybody consciously mixing the two up. Outside of a 'local' environment, such as one's hometown or family, people usually try and use the city's prestige dialect if they do not usually use one. this is usually Damascene in Syria, something which even Aleppo natives speak in when in a non-local environment. A native speaker can usually tell if someone is an outsider, depending on how good the outsider's accent is and the native's ears are.
So basically, someone from Yabrud will try to use Damascene when speaking with someone from outside of Kalamoon (The region Yabroud is a part of). When they're talking to their family or another group of Yabroudis they will use their distinct local dialect. When talking to a mixed group they will use Damascene. Use of local or 'prestige' dialect when talking to other Kalamoonis who have a similar dialect is subjective. Why do people do this? Dialects get very, very weird sometimes. I hope that clarifies a weird quirk in Syrian dialects.

I'll go a bit deeper. When you're working in an official capacity, a prestige dialect is almost compulsory. It shows some sort of respect towards yourself and towards whoever you're dealing with. One thing that some anti-regime people despise is the boisterous use of Alewite dialects by many pro-regime officials when trying to put down somebody, or when trying to display power or arrogance. Before the revolution, the presidential guard was respected to a certain extent for not doing this. If you look at most of the torture videos, Alewite dialects are almost always used, even if the user is not an Alewite. It is an interesting dynamic, to say the least.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
A UK charity made an ad that attempts to portray a british child going through what Syrian kids have had to deal with since the revolution started, to sort of bridge the culture gap. Pretty well done.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBQ-IoHfimQ

Aurubin
Mar 17, 2011

I'm unfamiliar with the particulars of the state itself, but why is the Emir of Qatar so close to the MB? Doha's rulers don't seem to be any more or less pious than the other Gulf countries that broke off ties recently, at least to me.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/05/arab-states-qatar-withdraw-ambassadors-protest

woke wedding drone
Jun 1, 2003

by exmarx
Fun Shoe

Volkerball posted:

A UK charity made an ad that attempts to portray a british child going through what Syrian kids have had to deal with since the revolution started, to sort of bridge the culture gap. Pretty well done.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBQ-IoHfimQ

THE AWESOME GHOST
Oct 21, 2005

Muffiner posted:

I'll go a bit deeper. When you're working in an official capacity, a prestige dialect is almost compulsory. It shows some sort of respect towards yourself and towards whoever you're dealing with. One thing that some anti-regime people despise is the boisterous use of Alewite dialects by many pro-regime officials when trying to put down somebody, or when trying to display power or arrogance. Before the revolution, the presidential guard was respected to a certain extent for not doing this. If you look at most of the torture videos, Alewite dialects are almost always used, even if the user is not an Alewite. It is an interesting dynamic, to say the least.

That's interesting, thanks for that. One set of my grandparents were descended from Syrian immigrants and both spoke the Damascus accent, they kept the accent despite never living in Syria at all.

Aurubin posted:

I'm unfamiliar with the particulars of the state itself, but why is the Emir of Qatar so close to the MB? Doha's rulers don't seem to be any more or less pious than the other Gulf countries that broke off ties recently, at least to me.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/05/arab-states-qatar-withdraw-ambassadors-protest

Qatar has:

The only Israeli embassy in the Arab World
The only official Taliban diplomatic mission
US CENTCOM Forward Headquarters
Full ownership of Jazeera News


They're trying to become a sporting hub with the World Cup bid and their dominance of sports coverage with AJ Sports, Qatar Airways is trying to be the transport hub of the Middle East instead of Emirates. Qatar Holdings bought Harrods, tried to buy FC Barcelona, and the same government that controls them offered billions to Morsi's government thinking the MB would be a good political tool to control.

To be diplomatic about it Qatar is a confusing place with fingers in a lot of pies. Part of that could be the sudden, unexpected, shift in leadership a year ago but they've always been full of contradictions. Oh also there are only 250,000 Qataris.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

A cameraman manages to film his own death, selfie style

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7NfwKId0xI

Saadi Gaddafi is now in the custody of the Libyan government (or whatever you call it)

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

I thought they exiled all these people to the new world back in the day.

The X-man cometh
Nov 1, 2009
Apparently Australians are allowed visas now, and clearly they've started mixing with the british poor.

Cocoa Ninja
Mar 3, 2007

Volkerball posted:

I thought they exiled all these people to the new world back in the day.

Listen, 50% of the federal budget goes to foreign aid [citation needed].

That could be helping industrious small business owners instead.

Muffiner
Sep 16, 2009
Saudi, the UAE and Bahrain have withdrawn their ambassadors from Qatar, due to increasing antagonism. They basically want the Qataris to tow the Gulf line and stop acting like it is an independent state or something. I'm being told by *sources* that they're willing to go as far as visas! removal from the GCC and sanctions if they don't cut it out. Kuwait is worried and Oman has been asked to mediate.

The X-man cometh
Nov 1, 2009

Muffiner posted:

Saudi, the UAE and Bahrain have withdrawn their ambassadors from Qatar, due to increasing antagonism. They basically want the Qataris to tow the Gulf line and stop acting like it is an independent state or something.

So is this a Saudi power play? Would they bring back the old Emir?

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

THE AWESOME GHOST posted:

Qatar has:

The only Israeli embassy in the Arab World
The only official Taliban diplomatic mission
US CENTCOM Forward Headquarters
Full ownership of Jazeera News


Egypt has the only official Israeli embassy, the Qatari's have a 'diplomatic envoy' type thing and are the first in the gulf to OPENLY (not secretly like the other's do) suck the dick of that racist little fascist poo poo hole and allow their terrorists into the country, not that the others dont try their damnest though.

I don't know what 'it' is exactly thats causing the gulf regimes to suddenly shout and scream and behave like this in the open, but as far as I'm concerned anything that gets these cretins to eat each other alive is fine by me.

The X-man cometh
Nov 1, 2009

Al-Saqr posted:

suck the dick of that racist little fascist poo poo hole

As an Indian, let me assure you that Qatar is a racist little fascist poo poo hole too, so it works.

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

THE AWESOME GHOST posted:



The only Israeli embassy in the Arab World
The only official Taliban diplomatic mission
US CENTCOM Forward Headquarters
Full ownership of Jazeera News

Don't forget Hamas.

Ian McLean
Sep 9, 2012

statpedia.org
Post Stats on Anything

Somebody fucked around with this message at 15:29 on Mar 7, 2014

Amused to Death
Aug 10, 2009

google "The Night Witches", and prepare for :stare:
So I guess Erdogan may or may not ban facebook and youtube in response to the phone call leaks

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/03/erdogan-sounds-social-media-ban-warning-20143725046895706.html

quote:

Turkey's prime minister has given warning that his government could ban social media networks YouTube and Facebook after a number of online leaks added momentum to a growing corruption scandal.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has already tightened his government's grip over the internet, generating criticism at home and abroad about rights in the country.

"There are new steps we will take in that sphere after March 30 ... including a ban [on YouTube, Facebook]," Erdogan told private ATV television in an interview late on Thursday.

His ruling Justice and Development Party, or AK Party, has come under mounting pressure since last week, when audio recordings were leaked in which Erdogan and his son allegedly discuss how to hide vast sums of money.

He dismissed them as a "vile" and "immoral" montage by rivals in the lead-up to crucial local elections on March 30.

A series of other online leaks showed Erdogan meddling in trade deals and court cases.

He has accused loyalists of Fethullah Gulen, an influential Muslim leader based in the US, of using his influence in the judiciary and police to engineer a high-level corruption investigation targeting the government since mid-December.

Gulen denies the charge.

Hope for jailed officers

In a related development on Thursday, Turkey's Constitutional Court backed former army chief Ilker Basbug's attempt for release from a life jail sentence.

The ruling paves the way for Basbug's possible release by a lower court and could be a precedent for more than 200 other defendants jailed for their alleged roles in the Ergenekon conspiracy against Erdogan's government.

Basbug has been held in Silivri prison near Istanbul for 26 months in connection with the Ergenekon case, a trial which helped tame Turkey's once all-powerful military.

The five-year trial, which reached a verdict last August, was key to a decade-long battle between Erdogan's Islamist-rooted AK Party and a secularist establishment that had led modern Turkey from its foundation by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.

The Constitutional Court said the failure of the lower court to publish its detailed verdict on the case and send it to the appeals court had violated a clause concerning personal freedom.

"It was decided ... to send to the [lower] court a request to do what is necessary in ruling on the applicant's release demand," the ruling on the court website said.

It was not clear why the detailed verdict had still not been completed.

Cemil Cicek, parliamentary speaker from the AK Party, praised the ruling as a triumph of judicial reforms which have been pushed through parliament in recent years.

Gulen's influence

Erdogan is widely believed to have relied heavily on Gulen's influence in breaking the power of the army, which carried out three coups in Turkey between 1960 and 1980 and forced an Islamist-led government from power in 1997.

Gulen's critics say his followers were instrumental in bringing to court the Ergenekon case and another alleged conspiracy, dubbed Sledgehammer.

Erdogan mooted in January the retrial of those convicted of trying to overthrow him in an apparent bid to discredit those in the judiciary he saw as concocting the scandal.

He has responded to the corruption investigation by purging police and passing laws to increase his grip over the internet and the judiciary.

Yalcin Akdogan, Erdogan's top adviser, said the military had been the victim of a plot and that the army subsequently filed a criminal complaint over the cases, arguing that evidence against serving and retired officers had been fabricated.

Last month, the government pushed through parliament a law completing the abolition of the special authority courts which tried the Ergenekon defendants and several hundred military officers in the Sledgehammer conspiracy.

President Abdullah Gul approved that law on Thursday.

JT Jag
Aug 30, 2009

#1 Jaguars Sunk Cost Fallacy-Haver
If he really does outright ban Facebook and Youtube, he might actually get straight up overthrown solely because of that.

The populace at large in developed countries have grown too accustomed to social media to accept it being taken away like that.

I Killed GBS
Jun 2, 2011

by Lowtax
Is Erdogan intentionally making his descent into dictatorship look like an enormous temper-tantrum? It's all I can think of when I read about it. :psyduck:

walking
Nov 27, 2013
Are there any ongoing protests in Turkey right now over all this?

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
I'm going to Istanbul on holiday in 6 weeks :s

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

mediadave posted:

I'm going to Istanbul on holiday in 6 weeks :s

You'll be fine. what's going on is a political intrigue issue and stuff behind the scenes, not a nation-ending scenario like other countries in the middle east.


Have fun! Istanbul is fantastic!

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

mediadave posted:

I'm going to Istanbul on holiday in 6 weeks :s

Well, that should certainly spur a lot of protests. :v:

HGH
Dec 20, 2011

Al-Saqr posted:

You'll be fine. what's going on is a political intrigue issue and stuff behind the scenes, not a nation-ending scenario like other countries in the middle east.


Have fun! Istanbul is fantastic!

My siblings and I are sending my mother there for Mother's Day and I'm suddenly starting to regret the decision despite knowing this.
Honestly, the whole family has been planning to visit Turkey since last summer but the constant turmoil there has scared us off multiple times.
I guess I finally understand how every other nation feels about Lebanon though. It's a good thing that March 14th will be a completely uneventful day wherein absolutely nothing bad will happen!

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

mediadave posted:

I'm going to Istanbul on holiday in 6 weeks :s

Traveling to Istanbul is fine. If you do see a protest just leave the area and don't get involved. Hell, I had a great time in Egypt last month and would go back again if I could.

Warbadger fucked around with this message at 22:12 on Mar 7, 2014

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

I've written a piece for the Daily Beast, It’s Time Russia Published Its Dodgy Chemical Weapons Dossier, pointing out that Russia's investigation into the Khan al-Assal chemical attack and their attempts to blame the opposition have been shown to be total crap. Elsewhere, there's a very detailed piece about claims made about the August 21st Sarin attack, and how claims the opposition were responsible don't add up.


And I, too, will be going to Istanbul soon.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Brown Moses posted:

I've written a piece for the Daily Beast, It’s Time Russia Published Its Dodgy Chemical Weapons Dossier, pointing out that Russia's investigation into the Khan al-Assal chemical attack and their attempts to blame the opposition have been shown to be total crap. Elsewhere, there's a very detailed piece about claims made about the August 21st Sarin attack, and how claims the opposition were responsible don't add up.


And I, too, will be going to Istanbul soon.

I'm glad your troll commenteers follow you everywhere on the internet.

Munin
Nov 14, 2004


Dusseldorf posted:

I'm glad your troll commenteers follow you everywhere on the internet.

Well, they have to tell the world about the evil Illuminati sponsored conspiracist! Why has he not admitted he is a Knight of the SMOM!

Anyway, I'd really like like to go to Istanbul, and Turkey in general at some point. Likely to be easier to go to than another place I'd like to have a look at at some point, Esfahan.

Turkey wise it is really a bit sad to see how Erdogan has developed. Though there had been some misgivings even then amongst some people, initially it was great that someone managed to shake up the political framework in Turkey and get certain previously underrepresented viewpoints a bigger voice. His increasing turn towards totalitarian statements and actions has really poisoned any positive legacy he might have left behind and entrenched existing divisions further.

Munin fucked around with this message at 14:49 on Mar 8, 2014

Mc Do Well
Aug 2, 2008

by FactsAreUseless
Erdogan fears the one facebook post that will unlock the gates of a utopian society. Also isn't ship watching a social media niche? Hmmm, why would you not want people talking about the Bosporous?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Dusseldorf posted:

I'm glad your troll commenteers follow you everywhere on the internet.

Lots of them there now, I do like how they question how can I know the content of the dossier if I haven't read it, which is rather the point I'm trying to make.

Muffiner
Sep 16, 2009

Brown Moses posted:

Lots of them there now, I do like how they question how can I know the content of the dossier if I haven't read it, which is rather the point I'm trying to make.

How does It feel to have rabid obsessive groupies?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

It's kinda complimentary they care so much to bother following around the internet posting stupid poo poo.

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Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.
Of all the things for Egypt to spend a billion dollars on, this isn't one of them

quote:

Egypt is about to acquire four Gowind-class corvettes from France in a $1.38 billion (€1 billion) deal, French newspaper La Tribune said on Thursday.

According to La Tribune, the deal between Egypt‘s navy and the French Naval Defense Company DCNS consists of four small warships that weigh 2,400 tonnes each.

They are equipped with surface-to-air VL Mica and sea-skimming Exocet missiles, according to Egyptian daily al-Ahram.

The French company won the bid against Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) and the Dutch Damen Group.

La Tribune also said the Egyptian Air Forces purchased nine transport aircraft from France-based Airbus Group.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2014/03/07/Report-Egypt-to-purchase-four-warships-from-France-.html

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