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utjkju posted:Why other people, who is not Maidan, can not organize other government? Because they don't have military capacity? I don't think you understand this. Maidan isn't a government, they are a protest group. A whole bunch of people got together and protested against the President because they felt he was doing a horrible job and should leave. It got violent so he fled the country and his party is no longer the majority in the parliament. So those who are left have called an election for May and are looking after things. Ukraine is still run by elected politicians. As for why other people shouldn't run their own government? Well because they aren't elected and there are elections in May.
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Mar 10, 2014 13:37
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Maidan has ministers, I'm pretty sure that makes a government. Unless you want to make the argument all the current minister positions are powerless.
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Mar 10, 2014 14:07
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Namarrgon posted:Maidan has ministers, I'm pretty sure that makes a government. It makes a small part of a government, it doesn't mean Maiden unilaterally formed the interim government. The interim government also contains career politicians who have nothing to do with Maiden.
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Mar 10, 2014 14:12
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utjkju, why are you so concerned with voting? Is it suddenly a big thing in countries that are not Russia?
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Mar 10, 2014 14:33
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mobby_6kl posted:utjkju, why are you so concerned with voting? Is it suddenly a big thing in countries that are not Russia? Do you live in Russia?
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Mar 10, 2014 16:14
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Tankus posted:The Orange revolution wasn't beneficial to almost anyone because it just replaced the people involved without a complete restructuring. Alternatively, I also didn't hear any praise and joy that the Russian liberators are there to save them. But I can totally see why they have little faith in the current revolution helping out. Its totally undecided as to where things are going now but hopefully stability can return and progress can be made. Is this "revolution" restructuring anything? More power is in the hands of the oligarchs than ever. How is that supposed to benefit the common man, especially after all the austerity measures proposed in order to qualify for European credit?
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Mar 10, 2014 18:17
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utjkju posted:Do you live in Russia? I don't, but I hear that every time there's been a revolution there, the resulting interim governments have failed to validate their existence by holding same-day national elections. Therefore the only legitimate government of Russia consists of the direct descendants of Ivan the Terrible, who should be located and return to Moscow at once to claim their birthright. On a more serious note, I was just reading about the recent violence in Sevastopol and Donetsk, and I sincerely hope that cooler heads will soon prevail. It seems like Klitschko is the odds-on favorite to win the Presidency at the May 25th election. I gather that his major perceived downside is his "lack of experience", but given the post-revolutionary political climate, that's probably actually a big plus. Also, I gather that his background is not ethnic-Ukrainian, which could mean that he could garner some support from ethnic-Russian Ukrainians, perhaps? Also he apparently has some Jewish ancestry, which may help neutralize the "Western Ukraine is now controlled by Nazis" talking point. Tankus and Mightypeon, can you shed any light on the current tense situation, and whether Klitchko's rise presents any hope for a peaceful resolution?
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Mar 10, 2014 18:29
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Klitschko has a number of pros and cons in the power struggle: Pros: -Perhaps the only candidate without a proven criminal record -His party (which would be center right in normal politics, it is the "left wing" of Maidan) is not right wing fringe, and could be seen as not immidiatly puke inducing for a majority of the people. Note that the Pro Russian crowd only throws eggs at him when he shows his face in the east. Svoboda/pravi Sektor would propably receive the same treatment Communists got on Maidan. -He looks good and has name recognition -He actually got some not completely hostile coverage in RT because he tried to deescalate some situations at the beginning of the year, Putin could propably accept him. -If the current Maidan gouverment fucks up (not unlikely) well, he isnt a part of it. Cons: -Both the Ukrainian nationalists and also many Russophones regard him as a German puppet. The nationalists dont want to be a "puppet of a puppet" (since Germany is perceived as a US vasall), and the Russophones dont want to be run by a German puppet either. -He has no economic base like Timoschenko or Party of Regions have -He does not have manpower on the streets like Svoboda either -He has some EU support, notably from Germany. US support is explicitly not behind him but behind Timoschenko. -The German media is now getting some "neutral" news pieces in the State run television/usually pro American newspapers. This may imply that Germany is reconsidering, which means that Klitschkos German support may not be worth much. Klitschkos gameplan propably consists of posting himself as an "honest outside compromise candidate", there are some situations in which this could work, particularly if there is a prolonged East/West Standoff. The thing is, outside forces are strongly influencing events, which makes a compromise solution between East and West less likely. (this is generally true for all conflicts) The other clash in the future may very likely be Timoschenko vs. Svoboda/Right Sector. This clash will propably end with total victory for one of those sides. The reason is that Timoschenko has a 100% advantadge over Svoboda/Right Sector in the economic and "diplomatic" sectors (diplomacy meaning that, in the event of a clash with Svoboda, she could conceivably call for support from other forces. She could also plot with other factions to Alpha Strike Svoboda, while Svoboda cant exactly plot with East Ukraine to Alpha Strike Timoschenko), while Svoboda has complete dominance in the streets and also in the military (a lot of "officers" just got replaced, courtesy of the new Svoboda defence minister). Clashes were different sides have radically different strengths are generally more likely to be short and decisive. Note that while I tend to write Svoboda/Right Sector, this does not mean that they could not have a clash with each other, and they propably will have such a clash, however, they are bereft of powerfull allies, have joint powerfull enemies and will thus likely stay allied for the conceivable future. Concerning the officer replacement thing, Maidan is in a pretty lovely situation here actually. First, Ukrainian army agreed to stay neutral (it basically is as divided as the country), however, now the Maidan movment got the power, and is already sacking a lot of "pro Russian" officers to replace them with more "Maidan friendly" (even though one of these new replacements publically went over to Russia) ones. The problem is that this causes resentment, but if Maidan wants to have a army somewhat credible to Russia, they cannot have a situation where one half of the army has to watch over the other half to prevent them from perhaps going over to the Russians. This purge of Russophone officers will generate serious resentment in the east (what do you think will a sacked "pro Russian" officer, who was sacked because he was "pro Russian", likely do with his newly aquired sparetime? Propably set up a "self defence group" somewhere.), and many in East Ukraine will see this as evidence/indication that Maidan is preparing the Army to be used against them in the future.
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Mar 10, 2014 19:44
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Ensign Expendable posted:Is this "revolution" restructuring anything? More power is in the hands of the oligarchs than ever. How is that supposed to benefit the common man, especially after all the austerity measures proposed in order to qualify for European credit? The restructuring has only just begun with the party of regions fleeing the country. The whole system here is broken and corrupt so over the next few months the world will be able to see if this happens. Everyone who has since assumed a position of power is afraid of syphoning money or accepting bribes because the Ukrainian people are being more demanding (and rightfully so) than they were in 2004. Russia's presence in the area is making an already tense and complicated problem worse by being so aggressive with their "self defense regiments" For people to demand that a broken and ineffective system to be fixed overnight WHILE threatening a country with a military presence is just counterintuitive.
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Mar 10, 2014 20:51
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jimma posted:I don't, but I hear that every time there's been a revolution there, the resulting interim governments have failed to validate their existence by holding same-day national elections. Therefore the only legitimate government of Russia consists of the direct descendants of Ivan the Terrible, who should be located and return to Moscow at once to claim their birthright. Mightypeon made a ton of great points. But ill give you my two cents. Klitchko has name recognition and is the most common name in terms of what Maidan (and the rest of the world) has heard. His roots lie in Eastern Ukraine and speaks Ukrainian like an Eastern Ukrainian, BUT he speaks Ukrainian none the less. He also speak an intermediate level of German too. He has a vast edge over Turchynov since a lot of people just see him as Tymoshenko's lapdog and most people would prefer for her to be out of politics. I agree that she should be, for the system to change to reintroduce an old element wouldn't really work. But, overall I think Klitchko's chances of winning are slim since people see him more as a figure head than as a political leader. I think he is currently second in the poles but is maintaining popularity, however a situation so dynamic as this means that anything is possible. Maybe his ties with Germany will be too much to counter balance his ties to Eastern Ukraine. Maybe he's been punched in the head one too many times... or not enough? Its really too soon to call anything a sure thing, and while he is a strong candidate I think he is not what Ukraine needs. However name recognition alone can do a lot for votes, if Bush can be elected twice in the US why cant a world champ boxed be elected to Ukraine? I just hope that if he wins he realizes his own weaknesses and inexperience and seeks the help and support Ukraine needs to move forward.
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Mar 10, 2014 21:11
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Tankus posted:I think he is currently second in the poles but is maintaining popularity, however a situation so dynamic as this means that anything is possible. Oh, okay -- I was looking at the pre-revolution poll results in Wikipedia, which showed Klitchko as the most popular opposition leader -- but the post-revolution polls show Poroshenko ahead. Do you have a preferred candidate?
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Mar 10, 2014 22:45
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jimma posted:Oh, okay -- I was looking at the pre-revolution poll results in Wikipedia, which showed Klitchko as the most popular opposition leader -- but the post-revolution polls show Poroshenko ahead. Do you have a preferred candidate? There are a few politicians in the Rada that have impressed me with their chutzpah so far, but they're probably too "Ukrainian" to be elected considering the need to appease the old Soviet blood and masses who have loyalty to Russia. Whoever it is needs to be young and fairly inexperienced in terms of Ukrainian politics, or if so, a supreme underdog. Electing Captain Chocolate or Milhouse to office would end poorly, but Klitchko MIGHT be able to pull it off if, like i said, he is self-aware enough to know he needs a lot of guidance and help. Current situation as it is, none of the politicians I like stand a chance to become the next president of Ukraine, and its all together likely they are totally disinterested in the position.
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Mar 10, 2014 23:02
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jimma posted:I don't, but I hear that every time there's been a revolution there, the resulting interim governments have failed to validate their existence by holding same-day national elections. Therefore the only legitimate government of Russia consists of the direct descendants of Ivan the Terrible, who should be located and return to Moscow at once to claim their birthright. There are two situation: 1. A revolution, when most people of a country recognize a new government. 2 .A revolution, when people have different opinions about a new government. Then may be two situation: a. People know about the military capacity of a new government. And people afraid it. And a internal conflict can not be. b. Different groups of people have the military capacity. And a internal conflict can be. At time a revolution the law is the military capacity. These people is a government, who have most military capacity. But in this situation all people in a country, who have the military capacity, can be at war with a new government of a revolution. And a group, who will have victory in a internal conflict, will be a government of country. I have a opinion that people from Maidan must understand this. Do people from Maidan understand this?
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Mar 11, 2014 03:44
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Even if they disagree with the new government or not, it's not like there is a long wait for the next election. But why are you so gung ho for a war? In a normal democracy it would take a lot to go to a military conflict and a responsible military wouldn't fire on it's own citizens.
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Mar 11, 2014 08:29
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utjkju posted:There are two situation: But there is no new government yet, a new government is being elected in may - probably as soon as humanly possible. The provisional government is not the new government. There is a danger of civil war over the provisional government, there always is in such situations. But the Russian soldiers are working WITH the dangerous people that captured the Crimean parliament, people who want a conflict over the situation and use violence. Russian troops are are not there to stop instability but to support it, they are not peacekeeping forces diffusing the situation, they are making it worse. A peacekeeping action would have been to disarm the armed 'militia' and restore the old elected Crimean parliament OR call for new parliament elections in Crimea. Russian troops didn't do that.
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Mar 11, 2014 10:39
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utjkju posted:Do you live in Russia? Why, is there a problem with me finding issues with the legitimacy of your government? Do you live in Ukraine? Of course there are issues with the current setup, but as has been explained, there's no way around it until new elections are held. A good way to deal with the situation is to open up a discussion with the interim government and try to work together to ensure that interests of the Russian-speaking population are respected. And not refuse to talk to it, occupy part of the country's territory, and blatantly try to annex it. Such actions are not only completely illegal, but also counterproductive to the interest of ethnic Russian around Europe.
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Mar 11, 2014 10:43
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Lord Windy posted:Even if they disagree with the new government or not, it's not like there is a long wait for the next election. I is not so gung ho for a war. Two month ago Russian people told people from Ukraina that a revolution is very dangerous. Today people from Ukraina want to migrate in Russia and other countries. Yesterday in one thread we, russian people, wrote about our cities, because people from Ukraine asked for help for choice of cities for the migration. People are afraid of a war. But these people don't like the policy of The new government in Kiev. Crimea organized the army of Crimea. http://blogs.channel4.com/lindsey-hilsum-on-international-affairs/bullets-potholes-birth-crimeas-army/3611 Yatsenuk talk about Crimea Tatars: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rENedxIp7sM Ukraina can have a internal conflict. It is a fact.
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Mar 11, 2014 10:52
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mobby_6kl posted:Do you live in Ukraine? My grandmother and my friends from Ukraine. waitwhatno posted:Russian troops are are not there to stop instability but to support it, they are not peacekeeping forces diffusing the situation, they are making it worse. These are interests of Maidan. Are interests of Maidan it is interests of all people of Ukraina?
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Mar 11, 2014 11:06
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utjkju posted:These are interests of Maidan. Are interests of Maidan it is interests of all people of Ukraina? I don't think they are. And do you think the interests of the armed men, that captured the Crimean parliament and that are supported by the Russian army, are the interests of all the people of Crimea?
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Mar 11, 2014 11:47
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waitwhatno posted:I don't think they are. And do you think the interests of the armed men, that captured the Crimean parliament and that are supported by the Russian army, are the interests of all the people of Crimea? I wrote my opinion. Crimea was not captured. Maidan say that Crimea was captured. But, for example, Crimea Tatars did not say that they was captured. My friend from Crimea did not say that Crimea was captured. Why i have to believe people from Maidan? And why i must not believe my friend and Crimea Tatars, people from Donetsk, people from Kharkov?
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Mar 11, 2014 13:21
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waitwhatno posted:I don't think they are. And do you think the interests of the armed men, that captured the Crimean parliament and that are supported by the Russian army, are the interests of all the people of Crimea? Some armed men took power in Crimea. Some armed men took power in Kiev. Is one of these groups automatically more legitimate than the other?
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Mar 11, 2014 13:46
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Ensign Expendable posted:Some armed men took power in Crimea. Some armed men took power in Kiev. Is one of these groups automatically more legitimate than the other? Armed men with military and financial backing from another country are currently in Crimea occupying military installations, capturing airports, and controlling who comes into and out of certain cities in Crimea. Kiev is "armed" is it? What APCs, helicopters, and automatic weapons did they "arm" themselves with? If Crimea wants to join Russia, its their prerogative, but forcing your military into a foreign country under false pretense is wrong, and the whole world knows it and has sadly seen how these things will play out.
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Mar 11, 2014 14:17
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You don't believe that Crimea has an ad-hoc self defense force too? Is everyone in camouflage in Crimea a Russian soldier to you? Also, Kiev's self defense force is armed pretty nicely with looted police equipment, which, of course, hasn't been returned.
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Mar 11, 2014 14:40
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Ensign Expendable posted:Also, Kiev's self defense force is armed pretty nicely with looted police equipment, which, of course, hasn't been returned. Well, if you just overthrew a government and there hadn't been elections yet, would you?
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Mar 11, 2014 14:55
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Ensign Expendable posted:You don't believe that Crimea has an ad-hoc self defense force too? Is everyone in camouflage in Crimea a Russian soldier to you? how can you honestly say that APCs and choppers are "ad-hoc" for a self defense force? Are you really so delusional? Of course everyone in camo isn't part of this group, and I fully understand that people there want to organize for whatever purpose. But I don't understand how you can group in the Russian occupation forces with them. Civilians just don't have access to the type of hardware present in Crimea. Kiev is "pretty well armed" with what? There must be tons of pictures of these guerrilla fighters armed with stolen automatic weapons since ANYONE can go to Maidan and photograph/document anything they want.
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Mar 11, 2014 15:05
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utjkju posted:I wrote my opinion. Crimea was not captured. Maidan say that Crimea was captured. But, for example, Crimea Tatars did not say that they was captured. I think we had a misunderstanding, I was talking about the Crimean parliament specifically. They are the ones that are making all these controversial decisions. Ensign Expendable posted:Some armed men took power in Crimea. Some armed men took power in Kiev. Is one of these groups automatically more legitimate than the other? That's the point I'm trying to make. One armed group declared elections and is ready to step down to a legitimate government. The other armed group declared itself the legitimate government and is making existential and irreversible decisions every day in the name of the people. These two things are only similar on a very, very superficial level.
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Mar 11, 2014 15:11
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Tankus posted:how can you honestly say that APCs and choppers are "ad-hoc" for a self defense force? Are you really so delusional? Of course everyone in camo isn't part of this group, and I fully understand that people there want to organize for whatever purpose. But I don't understand how you can group in the Russian occupation forces with them. Civilians just don't have access to the type of hardware present in Crimea. The APCs and choppers aren't. Just as not everyone in camouflage is Russian, not everyone in camouflage is Ukrainian. Sure, there are lots of pictures. Videos, even. Here you go, and that was from literally seconds of searching. Just because it's not on Western media doesn't mean it doesn't exist. waitwhatno posted:I think we had a misunderstanding, I was talking about the Crimean parliament specifically. They are the ones that are making all these controversial decisions. Oh, ready to step down, are they? Is that why they're appointing oligarchs for governors left and right? The Maidan crew isn't going anywhere, elections or no.
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Mar 11, 2014 15:12
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Ensign Expendable posted:The APCs and choppers aren't. Just as not everyone in camouflage is Russian, not everyone in camouflage is Ukrainian. The disparity between the amount of weaponry is massive, but the far right groups (or anyone) with stolen weapons really does need to turn them in or cut that poo poo out. The right sector is an extreme minority and their party's popularity is rather minimal, and will certainly stand no chance of getting a president in office. Hopefully any appointments made that are counter to the wishes of the Ukrainian people will be overturned following the legitimate elections in May. Appointing the rich and corrupt to positions of power will only lead back to this exact same terrible situation.
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Mar 11, 2014 15:24
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Tankus posted:how can you honestly say that APCs and choppers are "ad-hoc" for a self defense force? Are you really so delusional? Of course everyone in camo isn't part of this group, and I fully understand that people there want to organize for whatever purpose. But I don't understand how you can group in the Russian occupation forces with them. Civilians just don't have access to the type of hardware present in Crimea. The list of mercantile military companies in Ukraina. http://airsoft.ua/entry.php?b=214 And what do you know about lease and sale of military equipment?
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Mar 11, 2014 15:37
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Ensign Expendable posted:Oh, ready to step down, are they? Is that why they're appointing oligarchs for governors left and right? The Maidan crew isn't going anywhere, elections or no. Welp, I stand corrected. The illegitimate government in Kiev is making important decisions, and that's pretty lovely. But there is still an enormous difference between Yatsenyuk appointing buddies to political positions and declaring loving independence. One is an existential and irreversible decision, the other one is not. Also AFAIK there has been no signs that the elections are going to be called off.
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Mar 11, 2014 15:48
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Since this thread is actually giving me a headache and very little actual information is changing anyones opinion (Ensign Expendable i do honestly appreciate your postings, even if they are counter to my ideas). To lighten the mood ill post a picture of something i saw in a restaurant today that everyone should get some entertainment from. This is Ukraine's most tradition and beloved dish. Every family here eats it for New Years and Easter. So come on down to Ukraine and get a bit mouth full of...  Edit: For the unenlightened this is holodets. A dish popular in Slavic countries and you either love it, or hate it. For me the dish is unpleasant, its meat suspended in jello. In this case it is accompanied by the most unfortunate translation. Bon appetite. Tankus fucked around with this message at 16:05 on Mar 11, 2014 |
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Mar 11, 2014 15:57
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I'm not alone in thinking that Tymoshenko is sexy, right?
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Mar 11, 2014 17:17
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Does no-one else feel this is reminiscent of world war 2? I mean Germany just sort of ran around taking poo poo over with no-one really willing to do anything about it now we have Russia flexing its muscles in the east with places like Georgia and now Ukraine. The referendum in Crimea has been dubbed illegal but what can Ukraine and the west do to stop it apart from take it back by force?
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Mar 11, 2014 17:18
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Thrasophius posted:Does no-one else feel this is reminiscent of world war 2? No, you are the only one to come up with this comparison that has been trotted around all over the media for the last two weeks and even discussed at length in this thread. And again, it's a rather different situation. The Sudetenland was never part of the country of Germany. Crimea was a part of the country of Russia, and the only reason it became part of Ukraine is because the Soviet premier (who happened to be Ukrainian himself) gave it away as a symbolic gesture. That doesn't mean a Russian takeover is legal or good but it's really not the same thing as Germany trying to take over adjacent countries. Earwicker fucked around with this message at 17:23 on Mar 11, 2014 |
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Mar 11, 2014 17:20
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Tequila Sunrise posted:I'm not alone in thinking that Tymoshenko is sexy, right? Certainly used to be, but now she's in her mid-50s and the years in prison have not been kind. Klitschko's the most camera-friendly of the leaders these days.
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Mar 11, 2014 17:23
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Tankus posted:Since this thread is actually giving me a headache and very little actual information is changing anyones opinion (Ensign Expendable i do honestly appreciate your postings, even if they are counter to my ideas). To lighten the mood ill post a picture of something i saw in a restaurant today that everyone should get some entertainment from. Though humans may separate themselves from one another via politics and nationalism, at least we can all agree on a good dick joke. :-)
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Mar 11, 2014 20:49
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I dont want to derail things too much with WW2 comparisons, but one should keep in mind that Putin is reacting to events, while Hitler was the main actor in stuff. No "Regime Change" in Kiev, no stuff happening in Crimea. This is the causal direction. And well, removing Yanuk from power by elections would have been completely possible (especially by tackling him combined from the left and right, the not Yanuk left tried to paricipate on Maidan, but Right Sector beat the crap out of them), and Putin would be among the last persons to shed lots of tears over that.
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Mar 11, 2014 21:02
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I would like to ask you less West-oriented people what you think about the options given in the upcoming refendum and how it is presented in the Russian media. The Finnish media has been pretty neutral all things considered but even here the headline was, paraphrased, "No option for status quo". If you're not aware, people are given two options: A) Crimea will join the Russian Federation B) The 1992 constitution will come into effect, in short making Crimea temporarily independent until it has decided which nation it will want to join. No voting percentage threshold so you can't protest by not voting and all votes which don't have exactly one option chosen are not taken into account either.
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Mar 11, 2014 21:23
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Valiantman posted:I would like to ask you less West-oriented people what you think about the options given in the upcoming refendum and how it is presented in the Russian media. The Finnish media has been pretty neutral all things considered but even here the headline was, paraphrased, "No option for status quo". A goon even got some exclusive footage of the ballot: az posted:referendum dot jpeg
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Mar 12, 2014 00:58
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Crimea remaining in Ukraine requires basically 2 things: -A certain amount of decentralisation -A modicum of civility between Russia and Ukraine Since point 2 basically stopped happening, well, imho it wouldnt have hurt Russia to add a Status Quo option, since explicitly few people would vote for it, but well, a lot of people in the leadership feal cheated and want to make this very plain. And well, Ukraine has to be decentralized at least mid term for it to not become a potential new cold war hotspot. All succesfull nations with significant "other populations" in geographically distinct areas are pretty drat decentralized, with not so decentralized China being the odd one out. Maidan gouverment fantasys of ruling the Russian Untermenschen in the east with an iron fist just arent going to happen, and Maidans idea of negotiating with the east apperantly is about imprisoning eastern leaders (from the more popular sphere) while making Eastern Oligarchs "offers they are unlikely to refuse". In terms of decentralisation, the autonomy of the 1992 consitution is somehwat in the same ballpark as the autonomy US states enjoy. How would Texas like it if a "democratic interrim administration" gets to appoint the gouvernor of Texas, and how would they like it if said administration got into power in a uprising backed by Russia and China?
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Mar 12, 2014 08:28
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