Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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Musluk: May 23, 2011

SBJ posted:

Interestingly, a large part of why he won (like all conservative politicians) is due to harping on about the strong economy. But the Lira continues to fall every single time he opens his mouth to deliver yet another tired speech in which he lashes out at shadows.

And then he blames jews/deep state/foreign cultural terrorism/CHP/MHP/weather.

# ? Mar 22, 2014 02:30

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# ? Jun 7, 2024 12:42

fspades: Jun 3, 2013; by R. Guyovich

SBJ posted:

Interestingly, a large part of why he won (like all conservative politicians) is due to harping on about the strong economy. But the Lira continues to fall every single time he opens his mouth to deliver yet another tired speech in which he lashes out at shadows.

There are strong indicators that Turkey is in a bubble right now that began in 2009 and it is one of the most (if not the most) fragile emerging markets in the world. The Central Bank's decision to hike rates past December to combat devaluation of the Lira is seen by some as the beginning of the end, as this boom was brought with super-low interest rates and all-time high consumer spending.

So, here is another answer to the question of why AKP remains popular: There is an illusion of prosperity in Turkey and even I can see it with my eyes: Istanbul I lived in 5 years ago is not same Istanbul I live in today. Everywhere you can see new shopping malls, skyscrapers under construct, apartments that are getting demolished... People have more things; businesses are expanding; banks are doing well. All of this is funded by cheap foreign credit but industry growth is lagging behind, saving rates are at an all-time low and account deficit is soaring. But these are not easy to explain to average AKP voter and opposition does not even try. As an AKP election ad goes, "I look at deeds, not words."

fspades fucked around with this message at 02:51 on Mar 22, 2014

# ? Mar 22, 2014 02:42

The Brown Menace: Dec 24, 2010; Now comes in all colors.

Paper Mac posted:

Yeah, it's pretty difficult to say that the guy who appoints Ahmet Davutoglu as his foreign minister is "aggressively distancing" Turkey from its Ottoman history.

Interestingly, and/or sadly (for him, at least. gently caress him and his extended family, as far as I am concerned) Davutoglu is a Tartar. Sucks to be him or his extended family, I suppose.

Also, in other news: ISIS has threatened attacking the sole patch of Turkish sovereign territory outside of Turkey, the grave of Suleyman Shah in Syria, if Turkey does not cave in to their demands (continued support, likely). Around 30 troops are stationed there. This comes hot on the heels of a van being stopped by gendarmes in south-east Turkey and engaging in a firefight with them. 3 gendarmes dead, a 4th wounded, the culprits were captured. 2 Kosovars, 1 Albanian, they were apparently coming back from the Syrian front and on their way to Istanbul for a terrorist attack before being stopped by the gendarmerie.

# ? Mar 22, 2014 05:04

Phlegmish: Jul 2, 2011

enraged_camel posted:

Erdogan is also the last person to try to call attention to Crimea, as he has been aggressively trying to distance Turkey from its Ottoman roots.

Really? Why? First I've heard of that.

# ? Mar 22, 2014 05:09

Paper Mac: Mar 2, 2007; lives in a paper shack

The Brown Menace posted:

Interestingly, and/or sadly (for him, at least. gently caress him and his extended family, as far as I am concerned) Davutoglu is a Tartar. Sucks to be him or his extended family, I suppose.

Didn't know that, interesting. I've read Alternative Paradigms and a few thumbnail sketches of what's in Strategic Depth, but I'm not really that familiar with him as a politician- is there something you dislike about him above and beyond his association with Erdogan?

# ? Mar 22, 2014 05:22

pantslesswithwolves: Oct 28, 2008

The Brown Menace posted:

Interestingly, and/or sadly (for him, at least. gently caress him and his extended family, as far as I am concerned) Davutoglu is a Tartar. Sucks to be him or his extended family, I suppose.

Also, in other news: ISIS has threatened attacking the sole patch of Turkish sovereign territory outside of Turkey, the grave of Suleyman Shah in Syria, if Turkey does not cave in to their demands (continued support, likely). Around 30 troops are stationed there. This comes hot on the heels of a van being stopped by gendarmes in south-east Turkey and engaging in a firefight with them. 3 gendarmes dead, a 4th wounded, the culprits were captured. 2 Kosovars, 1 Albanian, they were apparently coming back from the Syrian front and on their way to Istanbul for a terrorist attack before being stopped by the gendarmerie.

Maybe it was here in this thread or something I came across elsewhere, but isn't that the place that the Turks said, in no uncertain terms, "gently caress with this place and we'll bomb the poo poo out of you?"

GG ISIS, turning one of the biggest backers of the insurgency into an enemy of it.

# ? Mar 22, 2014 05:45

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

suboptimal posted:

Maybe it was here in this thread or something I came across elsewhere, but isn't that the place that the Turks said, in no uncertain terms, "gently caress with this place and we'll bomb the poo poo out of you?"

GG ISIS, turning one of the biggest backers of the insurgency into an enemy of it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomb_of_Suleyman_Shah

quote:

On 5 August 2013 the Syrian civil war had promted Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to publicly state that �The tomb of Suleyman Shah [in Syria] and the land surrounding it is our territory. We cannot ignore any unfavorable act against that monument, as it would be an attack on our territory, as well as an attack on NATO land....Everyone knows his duty, and will continue to do what is necessary�

Yeah, Turkey isn't going to mess around with that.

# ? Mar 22, 2014 05:50

Totally Reasonable: Jan 8, 2008; aaag mirrors

I don't think he can just put some bricks in Syria under NATO protection by saying "this is so".

# ? Mar 22, 2014 07:08

SBJ: Apr 10, 2009; Apple of My Eye

Laughter in the Sky

Totally Reasonable posted:

I don't think he can just put some bricks in Syria under NATO protection by saying "this is so".

What? Are you going against Erdogan's word? Off to jail with you. Also you and your entire family have been fired from their jobs for an inexplicable reason.

# ? Mar 22, 2014 07:13

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Totally Reasonable posted:

I don't think he can just put some bricks in Syria under NATO protection by saying "this is so".

Based on the Treaty of Ankara in 1921, that grave shrine is officially an enclave Turkish sovereign territory within the borders of Syria which they may guard militarily and raise a Turkish flag over.

There is a question as to whether NATO would go to war to protect it, but it meets all the criteria.

# ? Mar 22, 2014 07:40

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

SBJ posted:

Interestingly, a large part of why he won (like all conservative politicians) is due to harping on about the strong economy. But the Lira continues to fall every single time he opens his mouth to deliver yet another tired speech in which he lashes out at shadows.

To be fair much of his popularity in the 2000s was due a recovery of the Turkish economy. Although it likely was mostly a bubble that since was re-inflated post-2009, Turkey as of yet hasn't had the type of chaos as the late 90s/early 2000s. Ultimately, Ecevit and the DSP deserves a fair amount of blame for what happened during that period including true hyperinflation, and Erdogan wouldn't have been he in the position he is now.

Admittedly a bit part of it was luck of the draw, Erdogan couldn't do that much worse than what was already going on and he did generally stabilized things. There has been quite a bit of development as well, although some of it was been problematic. Many poorer people didn't see their lives improve. That said some of the he has made to the constitution and the military did need to happen as some point.

His first two terms at least had improvements that could be pointed to, however his authoritarian streak has come out and now things are getting real lovely. Don't worry I don't love the guy, there has been a push and pull in Turkish politics for quite a while and Erdogan's time is coming to a close.

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 08:33 on Mar 22, 2014

# ? Mar 22, 2014 08:27

illrepute: Dec 30, 2009; by XyloJW

I don't really follow Turkish politics, what's the over/under of Erdogan and his party weathering the fallout of this corruption scandal now that he's (apparently) acting like a crazy man, banning twitter, etc?

# ? Mar 22, 2014 09:10

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

illrepute posted:

I don't really follow Turkish politics, what's the over/under of Erdogan and his party weathering the fallout of this corruption scandal now that he's (apparently) acting like a crazy man, banning twitter, etc?

It is tough to say (like a couple other countries at the moment) because it has become a cultural/political tug of war of its own. Erdogan, at least according to the latest polls, still has a lot of support for his base but ultimately there may be limits especially if the lira devalues more than it already has and/or he keeps on being over the top authoritarian.

He needs to go, but it is still too early to say he is finished.

# ? Mar 22, 2014 09:16

Mc Do Well: Aug 2, 2008; by FactsAreUseless

suboptimal posted:

GG ISIS, turning one of the biggest backers of the insurgency into an enemy of it.

Haven't there been rumors ISIS was infiltrated by Assad agents who want to troll the insurgency?

# ? Mar 22, 2014 13:11

Chokes McGee: Aug 7, 2008; This is Urotsuki.

illrepute posted:

I don't really follow Turkish politics, what's the over/under of Erdogan and his party weathering the fallout of this corruption scandal now that he's (apparently) acting like a crazy man, banning twitter, etc?

Vegas gave the line at 115, I'm not sure how much Erdogan can score so I'd probably take the under.

_{(You want "odds" there)}

# ? Mar 22, 2014 15:05

illrepute: Dec 30, 2009; by XyloJW

Chokes McGee posted:

Vegas gave the line at 115, I'm not sure how much Erdogan can score so I'd probably take the under.

_{(You want "odds" there)}

So were you just gonna post that, or..?

e: Anyway, for content's sake, I've been reading several interesting articles- many of which have been likewise linked in this thread- discussing what the break between Ad-Dawlah Al Islamiyyah and Jabhat al Nusra means for the evolution of Al-Qaeda as a group and as a symbol, and it's been interesting to consider that in one case (JAN) the organization has seemingly moderated its message for broader appeal while the other (ISIS) is sticking with its principles- and that's the one that got its Al-Qaeda Club Card revoked for alienating the other rebel groups. What does that mean? There's actually a real chance that Al-Qaeda in Syria is making a shift away from its radical roots in order to become a populist, if still fundamentalist, political organization. In a hypothetical future, Post-Assad Syria, it looks like organizations derivative of JAN might be the more moderate voices in politics, somehow? Has anyone else thought about this at length?

illrepute fucked around with this message at 16:14 on Mar 22, 2014

# ? Mar 22, 2014 15:26

cancelope: Sep 23, 2010; The cops want to search the train

So, Google DNS and apparently OpenDNS as well are now blocked in Turkey...

# ? Mar 22, 2014 21:35

Warcabbit: Apr 26, 2008; Wedge Regret

There's always 4.2.2.2

# ? Mar 22, 2014 21:36

cancelope: Sep 23, 2010; The cops want to search the train

The news is reporting that an IP-based ban on Twitter has just been placed too. VPN/Tor or go home from now on.

# ? Mar 22, 2014 21:38

Nintendo Kid: Aug 4, 2011; by Smythe

If you know people in Turkey who need more known-good DNS servers, there's also these: http://pcsupport.about.com/od/tipstricks/a/free-public-dns-servers.htm

# ? Mar 22, 2014 21:55

Musluk: May 23, 2011

VPN is the only way to reach twitter in Turkey at the moment, yeah. DNS isn't going to cut it.

Edit: Upon reading more, the situation with google DNS and open DNS is solved; but they did get blocked for a while.

Edit 2: Apparently they missed one of the IP blocks, lol.

Musluk fucked around with this message at 05:33 on Mar 23, 2014

# ? Mar 23, 2014 04:54

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

The air war between Syria and Turkey is intensifying...

quote:

Turkey's armed forces shot down a Syrian plane on Sunday after it crossed into Turkish air space in a border region where Syrian rebels have been battling President Bashar Assad's forces.

"A Syrian plane violated our airspace," Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan told an election rally of his supporters in northwest Turkey.

"Our F-16s took off and hit this plane. Why? Because if you violate my airspace, our slap after this will be hard,"

The rebels have been fighting for control of the Kasab crossing, the border region, since Friday, when they launched an offensive which Syrian authorities say was backed by Turkey's military.

Syria said Turkish air defenses shot down the jet while it was attacking rebel forces inside Syrian territory, calling the move a "blatant aggression".

State television quoted a military source as saying the pilot managed to eject from the plane. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said initial reports from the area said the plane came down on the Syrian side of the border.

Al Manar, the television station of Assad's Lebanese ally Hezbollah, said two rockets had been fired from Turkish territory at the Syrian jet.

I hope that "my airspace" is a mistranslation...

# ? Mar 23, 2014 14:48

Tardigrade: Jul 13, 2012; Half arthropod, half marshmallow, all cute.

More altercations in Beirut.

BBC posted:

Fresh clashes have erupted in Lebanon's capital Beirut among supporters and opponents of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Lebanese troops were deployed after a number of casualties were reported in a predominantly Sunni Muslim area.

The clashes come after more than a week of factional violence in the northern city of Tripoli that has left 25 dead.

The fighting there is between supporters of Syria's rebels and those backing Mr Assad's Alawite sect.

Mr Assad has been fighting a three-year uprising against his rule. More than 100,000 have been killed since the conflict began.

Sunday's fighting broke out before dawn.

The state-run National News Agency quoted Shaker Birjawi, head of the pro-Assad Arab Movement Party, as saying four of his followers were wounded.

The army deployed troops to the area and the clashes appear to have decreased.

They follow more than a week of violence in Tripoli.

Battles there have raged between members of the predominantly Sunni district of Bab al-Tabbaneh and Jabal Muhsin, which is populated mainly by Alawites, the heterodox sect of President Assad,

The war in Syria has exacerbated tensions between the two districts in the northern port city.

# ? Mar 23, 2014 14:59

Gath: Sep 23, 2009

Turkey Shoots down a Syrian Plane

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/23/us-syria-crisis-airplane-idUSBREA2M09X20140323

edit :Whoops, didnt see the post above. heres the link anyway

Gath fucked around with this message at 17:46 on Mar 23, 2014

# ? Mar 23, 2014 17:33

Bip Roberts: Mar 29, 2005

Do we know what the make on the Syrian plane was?

# ? Mar 23, 2014 17:48

Miruvor: Jan 19, 2007; Pillbug

Mig-23, that I've seen mentioned.

# ? Mar 23, 2014 17:59

Musluk: May 23, 2011

Dusseldorf posted:

Do we know what the make on the Syrian plane was?

Article Gath linked says Mig-23, and so do the Turkish sources I've seen. I'm no expert, but a plane falling 1.2km into the syrian soil on the day Erdogan is holding a meeting in Istanbul just too fishy - can a Mig-23 turn back and fly 1.2km into Syria after being shot?

Also, This Turkish source and many others are reporting that voting ballots and multiple 'YES' signs to be used for voting have been stolen, and then found in a poor province of Istanbul.

# ? Mar 23, 2014 18:05

MothraAttack: Apr 28, 2008

Musluk posted:

Article Gath linked says Mig-23, and so do the Turkish sources I've seen. I'm no expert, but a plane falling 1.2km into the syrian soil on the day Erdogan is holding a meeting in Istanbul just too fishy - can a Mig-23 turn back and fly 1.2km into Syria after being shot?

Also, This Turkish source and many others are reporting that voting ballots and multiple 'YES' signs to be used for voting have been stolen, and then found in a poor province of Istanbul.

There has been heavy fighting there with air support the past two days and it's literally on the border. Under a mile isn't far for a jet aircraft to travel.

# ? Mar 23, 2014 18:10

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Musluk posted:

Article Gath linked says Mig-23, and so do the Turkish sources I've seen. I'm no expert, but a plane falling 1.2km into the syrian soil on the day Erdogan is holding a meeting in Istanbul just too fishy - can a Mig-23 turn back and fly 1.2km into Syria after being shot?

Yes if it was going that way when it was hit and was flying high enough not to crash immediately, but it's also possible that it was in Turkish airspace when it was fired at and had returned to Syrian side by the time the missiles caught with it.

# ? Mar 23, 2014 18:15

suck my woke dick: Oct 10, 2012; I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Nenonen posted:

I hope that "my airspace" is a mistranslation...

Why would it be? Erdogan thinks he is the state anyway :v:

Al Jazeera reported it as "my airspace" as well, for what it's worth.

# ? Mar 23, 2014 18:42

cancelope: Sep 23, 2010; The cops want to search the train

It's a speech pattern he uses often--"my minister," "my soldiers," "my headscarf-wearing sister," "my money," etc.

# ? Mar 23, 2014 19:06

Musluk: May 23, 2011

I really have no idea about planes after all :v:

Syria reports Erdogan to EU court of human rights due to war crimes, apparently.

# ? Mar 23, 2014 19:44

Radio Prune: Feb 19, 2010

So apparently Hilal al-Assad has been kllled. He was the head honcho of the NDF in Latakia.

# ? Mar 23, 2014 20:36

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Radio Prune posted:

So apparently Hilal al-Assad has been kllled. He was the head honcho of the NDF in Latakia.

Cousin of Assad too, SANA confirmed him death.

# ? Mar 23, 2014 20:56

Party Plane Jones: Jul 1, 2007; by Reene; Fun Shoe

Musluk posted:

Article Gath linked says Mig-23, and so do the Turkish sources I've seen. I'm no expert, but a plane falling 1.2km into the syrian soil on the day Erdogan is holding a meeting in Istanbul just too fishy - can a Mig-23 turn back and fly 1.2km into Syria after being shot?

MiG-23s can do in excess of Mach 2 if they feel like, it's the turning part that the issue. The US managed to lose a 3 star general flying a MiG-23 during the CONSTANT PEG program back in the 80s when he went over 2.5 Mach.

# ? Mar 24, 2014 03:42