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Professor Shark
May 22, 2012

Met posted:

Everything she's done or said has been spiteful, a straight-up lie, or highschool drama bullshit. I get that it's a game that involves deceit, but because of the rest I find her to be rather contemptible.

I was referring to your decision to use the word "oval office" to describe her, dummy.

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Wiggly
Aug 26, 2000

Number one on the ice, number one in my heart
Fun Shoe

Boxman posted:

I'm watching China and their second challenge is actually the one we just had - walls, log maze, even had the "hit the gong at the end."

This isn't notable for reusing challenges (although it is sorta funny that Jeff called it a "chinese puzzle log"), but it is notable that both times they ran the challenge with 7 people on both tribes, forcing one person to sit out each time.

Sorry if someone else noticed this, thread moves a little fast, especially around Thursday.

My guess about the number of people is that the log was very heavy and you need at least 6 people to have a chance at winning the challenge. So they have to use it at a point in the game when they know the tribes will be even in numbers. At this point in the game, that was now. If they waited, one tribe could be down 7-5 and then they couldn't use the challenge at all.

Toaster Ding
Apr 30, 2006

Bjay9 posted:

She doesn't need the personality :pervert:

In all seriousness she's probably never actually had to have a personality to get ahead before. In a way, Survivor could be the most maturing thing to ever happen to her. In another way, she's definitely not going to win.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

I was thinking about it and decided that the Brains tribe is in a weak position right now. They firmly hold the power in their current tribe, but it will be very hard for them long game. Tony and Trish's move to boot Cliffy and keep LJ/Jefra has created a Brawn/Beauty alliance and that leaves the three Brains players very outnumbered, and two of their players (Alexis and Sarah) are natural members of that opposing alliance. Tony and Trish's move helps shore up the Beauty tribe, because definitely Morgan and probably Jeremiah were on the outs from that group and they needed some additional numbers. The Brawn tribe probably could have stuck together but Tony's lies about Cliff made that difficult. Just to make things harder for the Brains, they also don't know exactly what's going on at the other camp, although Sarah might have an idea. And the final cruel twist is that the opposing alliance has two immunity idols. So, yeah, the Brains are in big trouble unless that LJ/Tony alliance fractures.

Tribe 1
Brains: Tasha, Kass, Spencer
Floaters: Jeremiah, Morgan
Tony/LJ allies: Sarah, Alexis

Tribe 2
Main alliance: LJ, Jefra, Tony, Trish
Minority: Woo, Lindsey

If the Brains lose two challenges and boot Sarah and Alexis, that'll remove two enemy players from the game while keeping Woo and Lindsey around. Alexis already gave away that she was with LJ and Jefra and should be the first boot. If Sarah wants to survive, she'll need to either convince the Brains she isn't linked up with the enemy tribe, or convince them that she can pull the Brawn members in to make a majority alliance together.

Narcissus1916
Apr 29, 2013

I think its way too early to game out scenarios to the point where we could say "The brains tribe of three is screwed".

Beauty is well on their way to completely fracturing, and there will almost certainly be one or two more people voted out from Brawn before the merge.

I know Survivor is all about seeing three moves ahead, but I tend to think "strategy" doesn't go far beyond that - there's simply too many variables to try and predict anything further out.

BGrifter
Mar 16, 2007

Winner of Something Awful PS5 thread's Posting Excellence Award June 2022

Congratulations!

Fast Luck posted:

So, yeah, the Brains are in big trouble unless that LJ/Tony alliance fractures.

If I'm Spencer and company I like those odds. Tony is all the chaos and abrasiveness of Russell Hantz with almost none of the strategy. I wouldn't be surprised if Tony is already planning to flip on LJ and team with the Brains the moment they merge. He seems like the kinda meathead who would think "I can smoke the nerds in challenges and LJ is a threat, what's a jury?".

Similarly LJ seems rational enough to see Tony as a loose cannon and want to cut ties at the first opportunity. Even post-merge I like the Brains spot.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Narcissus1916 posted:

I think its way too early to game out scenarios to the point where we could say "The brains tribe of three is screwed".

Beauty is well on their way to completely fracturing, and there will almost certainly be one or two more people voted out from Brawn before the merge.

I know Survivor is all about seeing three moves ahead, but I tend to think "strategy" doesn't go far beyond that - there's simply too many variables to try and predict anything further out.
Well, this is relevant immediately as soon as it comes time to make a boot. If they're wise to what's going on they should boot Alexis right?

BGrifter posted:

If I'm Spencer and company I like those odds. Tony is all the chaos and abrasiveness of Russell Hantz with almost none of the strategy. I wouldn't be surprised if Tony is already planning to flip on LJ and team with the Brains the moment they merge. He seems like the kinda meathead who would think "I can smoke the nerds in challenges and LJ is a threat, what's a jury?".

Similarly LJ seems rational enough to see Tony as a loose cannon and want to cut ties at the first opportunity. Even post-merge I like the Brains spot.
This is solid reasoning, I guess their position isn't that weak considering... Tony.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

Fast Luck posted:

Well, this is relevant immediately as soon as it comes time to make a boot. If they're wise to what's going on they should boot Alexis right?

They are wise to what's going on. Alexis spilled the beans, and they seem to be including Morgan.

I think they boot Alexis and Sarah when given the chance. If they do, they're in a fantastic position.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I don't feel like the Brains are in an especially strong or weak position at the moment. Even the short term power they have in their tribe could go away in a second if Sarah, Morgan, Jeremiah, and Alexis realize "hey, if we let them pick one or two of us off than they'll have total control of the tribe and I might be next." I don't know how smart those four are and if they'll realize it or get on the same page but its a very small step to take that could completely neuter Brains and send Spencer or someone else home next.

They caught a great break with the tribe swap but the difference between good players and bad players is what you make of those kinds of breaks. If the Brains can control the tribe enough the next couple of weeks to cement their short term power than that's good but they should definitely be trying to secure allies for the post merge game since they won't be getting any reinforcements there. It would make sense to take out Sarah to further weaken Brawn and it would make sense to take out Jeremiah or Alexis to further splinter Beauty, but they also have to figure out who if anyone they can play deeper into the game with.

LJ/Tony is a very shaky alliance I don't really trust to necessarily even last through this week but its the right idea. Two Beauties allying with two Brawn so they're on equal footing and control the tribe. The number 3 with Brains is kind of iffy since even if they ally with 1 or 2 of the others on the tribe they've still got an obvious numbers advantage. Shaky alliances like this can only be assured if they're mutually beneficial and safe. If there's an obvious one sided nature like that than its not hard to see why its a bad idea. Of course Survivor is filled with players who couldn't see that, most recently Ciera last season.

The absolutely smartest play Sarah, Morgan, Jeremiah, and Alexis could make would be to ally and take out the Brains. For Sarah it might feel like allying with the Beauties or Brains is equal for her but she has a much better chance worming her way in with the splintered Beauties than the Brains. But then I also think the Brains are only allied strongly because they think they have power. If that changes I could see them selling each other out in a heartbeat.

What I'm saying is it will be super boring if Brains just find a fourth and vote out someone. I'm hoping for smarter gameplay and a lot more chaos.

CapnAndy
Feb 27, 2004

Some teeth long for ripping, gleaming wet from black dog gums. So you keep your eyes closed at the end. You don't want to see such a mouth up close. before the bite, before its oblivion in the goring of your soft parts, the speckled lips will curl back in a whinny of excitement. You just know it.
In the absolute worst case scenario -- Orange Tribe loses four straight immunity challenges and goes into the merge with just the Brains left -- the Brains simply pull in Woo and Lindsey, who are both discontented and would be happy to knife Tony in the back, and they've got a 5-4 advantage in the numbers.

A strong alliance of three is never in a weak position in this game.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

CapnAndy posted:

In the absolute worst case scenario -- Orange Tribe loses four straight immunity challenges and goes into the merge with just the Brains left -- the Brains simply pull in Woo and Lindsey, who are both discontented and would be happy to knife Tony in the back, and they've got a 5-4 advantage in the numbers.

A strong alliance of three is never in a weak position in this game.

Alternatively Orange loses this very next challenge and while Brains try and decide who to turn the tribe against or who to get on their side Sarah convinces the Beauties not to give up their power and to vote out Spencer. Will it happen? I have no idea. Sarah and the Beauties have been pretty questionable players so far. But it absolutely CAN happen and would be the smartest play for Sarah and the Beauties.

CapnAndy
Feb 27, 2004

Some teeth long for ripping, gleaming wet from black dog gums. So you keep your eyes closed at the end. You don't want to see such a mouth up close. before the bite, before its oblivion in the goring of your soft parts, the speckled lips will curl back in a whinny of excitement. You just know it.

STAC Goat posted:

Alternatively Orange loses this very next challenge and while Brains try and decide who to turn the tribe against or who to get on their side Sarah convinces the Beauties not to give up their power and to vote out Spencer. Will it happen? I have no idea. Sarah and the Beauties have been pretty questionable players so far. But it absolutely CAN happen and would be the smartest play for Sarah and the Beauties.
I think you're discounting how much the Beauties hate each other. Morgan in particular has no reason to go along with the people who cut her out and were making no secret about how she was the next boot.

Mercaptopropyl
Sep 16, 2006

I can be framed easier than Whistler's Mother

CapnAndy posted:

I think you're discounting how much the Beauties hate each other. Morgan in particular has no reason to go along with the people who cut her out and were making no secret about how she was the next boot.

a million times this. There's absolutely zero reason for Morgan to align with Jeremiah and/or Alexis, and absolutely no way Alexis would align with her.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

CapnAndy posted:

I think you're discounting how much the Beauties hate each other. Morgan in particular has no reason to go along with the people who cut her out and were making no secret about how she was the next boot.

She has at least one valid reason, and that's to break up a united alliance of three that would gain full control of the tribe if you let them. Is Morgan smart or mature enough to rise above her petty feelings and see this? I have no idea. Equally I have no idea if she even understands her role in Jeremiah and Alexis distrusting her or just assumes she could flash her boobs at Spencer and break up the Brains anyway. I don't get why you guys think it makes more sense for her to go along with the 3 Brains than for her to form a new alliance of four if the opportunity presents itself. It seems like the best case scenario for her voting with the Brains is to become the 4th in an alliance of 3 people that as far as she can tell are united (because they weren't stupid enough to air their dirty laundry).

Hypothetically if Morgan can form an alliance with Sarah then they could basically mirror the LJ/Jefra/Tony/Trish alliance. Sarah and Morgan ally with Alexis and Jeremiah, two loose duos who don't necessarily trust each other but have a shared interest in taking down the trio that could gain control of the tribe if you vote with them. This Beauty/Brawn alliance might not be any more concrete than the other Beauty/Brawn alliance but they'd both at least be founded on the same stable notion. An alliance of 2 and 2 is a better long term move than an alliance of 3 and 1 or 3 and 2, provided you're in the small number.

I have no idea if Morgan or the rest of them will see this but I don't get why you guys think it makes no sense. This feels like the thing from a couple of weeks ago when people were criticizing Tasha and Kass for worrying if Spencer would be loyal in a merge while at the same time people were talking about the potential for Spencer to find a new alliance in a merge. They're the same scenario, just taken from different perspectives. If we acknowledge the Brains could coast to the merge by sending home one of the Beauties next then the Beauties and Sarah should be able to see this too take advantage of their one chance to stop that.

Whether they will or not, who knows? Ciera and them missed the boat last season much later in the game but under the same basic scenario. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them just go along with the Brains. Bored, but not surprised.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

It's not up to Morgan. That bridge is burned and Alexis isn't going to ally her in the current situation. It's also not worth it for Morgan anyway. Why should she get back with people that don't like her instead of trying to make something new with Brains?

Generic American
Mar 15, 2012

I love my Peng


Morgan's pretty much in the same boat as Tasha was during the situation with Garrett (although the difference being that it's a direct result of her own actions instead of Tasha just being the odd one out right from the gate). Whatever mistakes she made and regardless of their severity, she's the bottom of the Beauty tribe. Barring a massive shake-up somewhere in their ranks, she's the first throat that will be cut amongst them. It's also a bit similar to Tony's turn last week, where she can either take the "safe" spot in the alliance where she's the one who'll be tossed overboard to keep the rest afloat at the first sign of trouble, or shuffle the deck and jockey for a better slot somewhere else.

To clarify; I don't think she has a chance in hell at actually trading up from where she currently is by feeling out a new alliance, but she's got nothing to lose beyond "how far do I get in the game before I get knocked out". If she's doing it for bragging rights on how far she made it, sticking with the Beauties is the safer bet, but if she really wants to make a run for the end, she's pretty much locked into rolling the dice and hoping for the best.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Why would she try to make something new with the Brains, a seemingly united alliance of three, instead of trying to make something new with Sarah who is equally alone as her at the moment? Morgan's played a bad game, burned a third of the people in the game, and has no friends, that's the reality of the situation. So what's the end game in allying with the Brains? Being used by them as a number until the Final Four and then hoping someone takes you as a goat or you go on an immunity win? Hoping Spencer is more seduced by your boobs than Jeremiah was?

Alexis is kind of in the same position. What's in it with her to work with the Brains? She's got a slightly better chance if she can get to the merge and find some old allies like LJ and Jefra, that's assuming they're still her allies. But she's still jumping on as the fourth to a three person alliance. Why would that sound like a good idea? And the most logical move for the Brains is to vote out her or Jeremiah and break up that potential Beauty group so why would she help them in that task before looking for another option? Sure, she hates and doesn't trust Morgan. I get that and don't blame her. But the thing that makes strange bedfellows are united goals.

I feel like none of you guys are addressing my basic point. Orange is 4 kind of alone people and 3 united people. Regardless of what those 4 think of each other isn't it the best game move for them to break up the 3 person alliance instead of further empowering them by picking off one another? That might be a move if you're Sarah and hoping the numbers help you reunite with a Brawn power alliance if you can just make the merge but what's Morgan or Alexis' end game? That's the kind of "live one more day and hope it all works out" game play I hate. Its fine if that's your only option but its not the only option here. There's 4 of them and 3 of the other. All they need to do is realize that.

Do I think a Morgan/Sarah alliance with a tentative Alexis/Jeremiah alliance is a safe bet to the end for Morgan? Absolutely not, she's built the odds against her. But I fail to see how an alliance with Brains gets her better odds. At least there's a fighting chance of winning over Sarah and maybe using her pre-swap alliances to help her or riding the Alexis/Jeremiah/Sarah Final Four to a shaky end. The Brains plan is just being a hanger on, isn't it?

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 05:17 on Mar 25, 2014

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

STAC Goat posted:

Why would she try to make something new with the Brains, a seemingly united alliance of three, instead of trying to make something new with Sarah who is equally alone as her at the moment?
Because it's a more realistic way to move forward in the game. She's a better ally for the Brains tribe than the other people in that camp because she's the most unattached. Therefore, going with them actually has a good chance to work! Your other ideas, not so much. First off, I don't think she could get them to agree to it in the first place. Secondly, it only takes one person to flip and kill that. Also, the Brains alliance, if it survives, has to have more than 4 members after the merge, so she'll have other people to work with later if she needs to try to move up in the alliance.

Fast Luck fucked around with this message at 05:24 on Mar 25, 2014

Mercaptopropyl
Sep 16, 2006

I can be framed easier than Whistler's Mother

STAC Goat posted:

She has at least one valid reason, and that's to break up a united alliance of three that would gain full control of the tribe if you let them. Is Morgan smart or mature enough to rise above her petty feelings and see this? I have no idea. Equally I have no idea if she even understands her role in Jeremiah and Alexis distrusting her or just assumes she could flash her boobs at Spencer and break up the Brains anyway. I don't get why you guys think it makes more sense for her to go along with the 3 Brains than for her to form a new alliance of four if the opportunity presents itself. It seems like the best case scenario for her voting with the Brains is to become the 4th in an alliance of 3 people that as far as she can tell are united (because they weren't stupid enough to air their dirty laundry).

Hypothetically if Morgan can form an alliance with Sarah then they could basically mirror the LJ/Jefra/Tony/Trish alliance. Sarah and Morgan ally with Alexis and Jeremiah, two loose duos who don't necessarily trust each other but have a shared interest in taking down the trio that could gain control of the tribe if you vote with them. This Beauty/Brawn alliance might not be any more concrete than the other Beauty/Brawn alliance but they'd both at least be founded on the same stable notion. An alliance of 2 and 2 is a better long term move than an alliance of 3 and 1 or 3 and 2, provided you're in the small number.

I have no idea if Morgan or the rest of them will see this but I don't get why you guys think it makes no sense. This feels like the thing from a couple of weeks ago when people were criticizing Tasha and Kass for worrying if Spencer would be loyal in a merge while at the same time people were talking about the potential for Spencer to find a new alliance in a merge. They're the same scenario, just taken from different perspectives. If we acknowledge the Brains could coast to the merge by sending home one of the Beauties next then the Beauties and Sarah should be able to see this too take advantage of their one chance to stop that.

Whether they will or not, who knows? Ciera and them missed the boat last season much later in the game but under the same basic scenario. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them just go along with the Brains. Bored, but not surprised.

I get what you're saying on paper, but here in the real world, with real people, it makes ZERO sense for Morgan to do anything other than align with the Brains.

Maybe try to bring in Sarah too, because Sarah will (in her mind) have 2 people she can bring into the fold at merge (Trish/Tony) so Morgan could reasonably expect a 7 person alliance with a 3/3/1 split. I think it's really important for Morgan that she works with Sarah here.

Alexis would NEVER willingly join an alliance with Morgan in it. And even if she would, Morgan would be completely screwed once merge comes around. If she can align with both the Brains and Sarah, she has a chance to actually maneuver herself into a good situation. Not to mention if she does so, the next 3-4 eliminations will help her (Alexis/Jeremiah/Lindsey/Woo) post-merge. Keeping Alexis and/or Jeremiah around will only help LJ (and hurt Morgan). When she sees that Cliff is gone, it should be a red flag that she needs to weaken the Beauty tribe as much as possible.

Mercaptopropyl fucked around with this message at 05:44 on Mar 25, 2014

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
Well what's interesting about the dynamics on the Orange Tribe is that they would (and will) change drastically depending on how much information they get from the Purple Tribe. If it's clear at the challenge what happened and what the new majority alliance is over there, I think it makes a lot of sense from Morgan's perspective to ally with the Brains and throw as many challenges as they can to keep Woo and Lindsay and try to form a majority coalition at the merge. Then she's not fourth in an alliance of four, but one of three outsiders in an alliance of six, with the added benefit of voting out all the people that hate her most.

Of course, the problem is that from the Brains perspective, it makes more sense to try to ally with anyone BUT Morgan, since it would fracture the potentially dangerous super alliance of Sarah/Tony/Trish/LJ/Jefra/Alexis/Jeremiah. While Alexis and Jeremiah didn't seem overly fond of each other last episode, there's no reason to think they wouldn't be logical and join up with their old allies to form a majority at the merge, especially if they have no new allegiance to the Brains.

Someone mentioned earlier that the worst case scenario for the Brains is a late merge at Final 9, but I think the real danger is a merge at Final 12 (after the next Tribal). If the Purple tribe loses another Immunity and sends Woo home, the Brains are left with very few potential allies to get a majority in the merged tribe and are in big trouble. To avoid a tie in that case, they need to get 2 of Sarah/Tony/Trish/LJ/Jefra/Alexis/Jeremiah to flip to their side (and that's assuming Morgan and Lindsey are guaranteed to be with them, which isn't a 100% sure thing). On top of that, their main enemies will be controlling both of the remaining Hidden Immunity Idols.

EDIT: Even worse scenario, merge at Final 11, and letting Purple vote out both Woo and Lindsay.

Wren610
Oct 25, 2010
One thing everyone is glossing over about the brains that is both unique and important. They are not friends and they have solid reasons not to trust each other. They're alliance is a bit of an anomaly it is purely based on mutual need and desperation. Kass made friends with first boot he's gone Spencer and Tash voted him out. Spencer made friends with Garret they reached out to Kass to get rid of Tash's friend J'tia (cutting Tash out in the process)and Kass blew them off and sent Spencers buddy home instead. Spencer may trust Tash but do you really think he's trusting Kass after that and do you think Kass trusts anyone her edit's been pretty heavy with the I'm here for me vibe. For the time being the three are solid but there's no way they go final three together. The deeper they go the more likely Kass and Tash are to try to replace Spencer with a girl and Spencer sees it coming(the women weakened the tribe to seize control of it comment). This helps Morgan and Sarah because in the back of their minds brains are looking for that third girl. This is all post merge drama but the first tribal they goto could be the start of that screening process.

BGrifter
Mar 16, 2007

Winner of Something Awful PS5 thread's Posting Excellence Award June 2022

Congratulations!

Wren610 posted:

For the time being the three are solid but there's no way they go final three together.

You're too zeroed in on this girls alliance thing. Right now it's in all their best interest to stay solid and a reasonable case can be presented that holds true for all three right to the end.

Spencer is a valuable commodity in a game like this, a player who can be trusted to act with rational self interest. He'll be rock solid loyal as long as it's in his best interest and a final three with Kass and Tasha is likely to be his best case scenario the rest of the way. Plus as we see challenge threats disappear he's got an above average shot at immunity wins.

Tasha is similarly likely an immunity threat down the stretch and seems to have a good head on her shoulders. It seems entirely reasonable that she could expect Spencer to Hantz himself out of the final tribal leaving her with a strong case vs Kass. Not much incentive to rock the boat there either.

Kass is the wildcard of the bunch but seems content to make it to the end making as few waves as possible. Not a terrible strategy given how we've seen HvV/South Pacific/other recent seasons play out. Players like Cochran and Tyson winning is a pretty recent phenomenon and one she may not have had time to adapt to.

Idols are the big danger to the Brains right now. Tony and LJ have the two active ones and post merge we're getting the overpowered Yul-idol back in the game.

CapnAndy
Feb 27, 2004

Some teeth long for ripping, gleaming wet from black dog gums. So you keep your eyes closed at the end. You don't want to see such a mouth up close. before the bite, before its oblivion in the goring of your soft parts, the speckled lips will curl back in a whinny of excitement. You just know it.
The Brains getting walloped and sent to Tribal again and again is what's made them so paradoxically strong right now; there are no divisions left for anyone to take advantage of. They backstabbed, schemed, and shattered their own tribe again and again. Now all that's left is the last three people from a tribe so broken that even alliances stopped mattering and it just became "who are we willing to down together with". There's no minority on the outs, there's no grudges. There's just three people who have been through the poo poo together and have suddenly been handed a whole lot of power. That's strong stuff for where they're at right now.

blue squares
Sep 28, 2007

Oh my god shut the gently caress about Spencer

Milovan Drecun
Apr 17, 2007
I masturbate in traffic.
The Brains can pull in both Jeremiah and Morgan, and boot Alexis then Sarah (if needed). The four 'alone' people allying doesn't make sense because:
1) Morgan is above at least Jeremiah when allying with the Brains, she falls to the bottom if there is a merge and she did the four (LJ, Jeffra, Alexis will maintain). There's a lot more of a future for her if she joins the Brains since she'll have finally ingratiated herself to someone (anyone!).
2) Jeremiah is a tool and shown disloyalty to some extent, everyone will try to use him but getting him into the Brains alliance now will at least stabilize him for the time. LJ may try and get him back post-merge, but he'll still be on the bottom there and is unlikely be a swing vote. He could be content to stick with the Brains post-merge or flip, but it doesn't really matter. He's so desperate to survive in this game he would likely go with Morgan and the Brains just to have some standing somewhere.
3) The Brains would be fools to take Sarah since they have no information on her. The Brawn, even with Cliff gone, are a threat to the Brains. She, as much as Alexis, is in danger. Sarah could ally with Morgan, but Morgan can't ally with Alexis and survive. It doesn't serve Morgan at all post-merge.
4) Alexis has no game and she revealed too much to make the four person alliance happen. Her and Sarah both need the tribe to win challenges to move on.

It's a weird situation where the Brains may be in the best position losing, twice especially. It's not an inherently better strategy for the four 'alone' people to ally since Morgan, the swing vote, has nothing on the other side waiting for her. It is smart for the other three, but they're in a weak position, of course it's smart for them to try and pull someone. And none of this is to say it won't happen. It's just not the clear cut better strategy like STAC Goat implies. Morgan is buried way deeper than fourth in a post-merge alliance without the Brains. She can also get rid of Alexis before she becomes a Jury member, which is definitely a boon for her if she manages to make it to the end.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Well to be honest I didn't really mean it to be a "clear cut" best option, I just probably got a little carried away countering the "makes zero sense" reaction. I think the four allying makes a certain sense but I also see the bigger picture that Morgan has no allies on the other side and would be screwed of she ended up,on the bottom of a bigger post merge alliance shift. So since she's choosing between lovely options being voted out Final Four by the brains might seem like the best one.

But in my defense I also got kind of sidetracked with Morgan because people were focusing on her as the roadblock, when when I first suggested I was thinking of it more as something Sarah should organize. Sarah's in a weird position. She's either the swing vote or the odd man out at the moment. She's got obstensibly 4 allies left in the game on the other side so could be seen as a major threat unless she can convince her tribe she's shocked and betrayed by Cliff going. From her perspective she may assume Woo is in on the blindside of Cliff (since he was before the merge) so may think she has more allies than she does or not realize what's happening over there (but think she does).

In my mind Sarah's best play would be to not worry about the other tribe and instead play like she's alone over here. And I feel like the Beauties are her best bet. If she could somehow convince them that they'd be foolish to give The Brains control of the tribe she could (a) bust up the group most likely to vote her out pre-merge, (b) ally with a group unlikely to unite against you due to their own dysfunctions, and (c) have better odds of reinforcements post merge. I didn't mean to make my idea depend on Morgan, I meant to make it depend on Sarah. Because she's in a super shaky and weird position and I was wondering in my head if she'd be able to talk the Beauties into such a move.

paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO
You can tell this is a good season because :words:

Mercaptopropyl
Sep 16, 2006

I can be framed easier than Whistler's Mother
In no way is working with the 3 ex-Beauties Sarah's best bet on this tribe. It would be suicide to try it, and whoever tried to orchestrate it would just find themselves voted out first if/when they go to tribal.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
This is apparently a gif of Alexis twerking. No idea the source. It was a quick google search after hearing on RHAP that there was some video of it from a TV Guide special or something.

blue squares
Sep 28, 2007

Aaaand my TV just quit working.

edit: Nevermind

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=
Previously on...








...Survivor!!!

Robnoxious
Feb 17, 2004

:siren: PREVIOUSLY ON... "Poque beats me to the 'Previously on... Survivor!' line" :siren:

East Coast feed (good PQ): http://88.80.11.29/47352/watch-survivor-cagayan

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

by Fluffdaddy
Away we go!

blue squares
Sep 28, 2007

Robnoxious posted:

:siren: PREVIOUSLY ON... "Poque beats me to the 'Previously on... Survivor!' line" :siren:

East Coast feed (good PQ): http://88.80.11.29/47352/watch-survivor-cagayan

Thanks! But my TV started working again.

Lone Goat
Apr 16, 2003

When life gives you lemons, suplex those lemons.




DRAMA

Wee Bairns
Feb 10, 2004

Jack Tripper's wingman.

Lovely start.

Recursive
Jul 15, 2006

... but then again, who does?
Why do people think these drama-splosions are gonna serve any purpose other than putting a target on your back.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

OK, Trish is way more annoying than Lindsey.

SteveVizsla
Mar 19, 2009

Why do I always want to sock it to you so hard?
Loving the embarrassed smirk from Trish, who started it.

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Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=
Literally nothing Trish ever says sounds sincere, ever.

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