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FMguru posted:That's a classic Karl Rove campaign technique - figure out what your greatest weakness is, and accuse your opponent of it. It scrambles the narrative, puts them on the defensive, confuses low-information voters, and forces the media to treat your biggest weakness as a he-said/she-said/perhaps the truth is somewhere in the middle kind of muddle, which has the overall effect of nullifying your weakness. For example: aggressively tarring John Kerry as a chickenshit fake solider who shirked his duty and lied about his service. Unfortunately (for him), he already has an established reputation with the public for carpetbagging, plus Scott Brown has all the likability of a root canal during debates. I suspect this tactic will not be particularly effective, but I'm often surprised when it comes to politics.
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Apr 14, 2014 17:32
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In case you doubt the depths to which the GOP will go to use strengths as weaknesses, remember that they questioned the defense record of a triple amputee vet and put him on the side of Bin Laden.
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Apr 14, 2014 17:35
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It only works if your opponent doesn't immediately counter it. That was Kerry's mistake--he assumed that because the charges were so loving absurd that no one would believe them. And since everyone already knows Scott Brown was a "moderate" Republican senator from Massachusetts, I can't imagine that NH voters won't look at this and go "Whuh?". I look forward to Scott Brown working with the Manchester Union-Leader to get to the bottom of Jeanne Shaheen's Lesbian heritage though  (her husband's Lebanese, but he won't make the distinction)
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Apr 14, 2014 17:35
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Alter Ego posted:It only works if your opponent doesn't immediately counter it. That was Kerry's mistake--he assumed that because the charges were so loving absurd that no one would believe them.
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Apr 14, 2014 17:56
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Alter Ego posted:Scott Brown has hit upon a new campaign tactic: Accuse your opponent of voting with the Senators from Massachusetts. Whenever someone decries the permanent campaign, I have to wonder why they're trying to spoil the fun for the rest of us.
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Apr 15, 2014 02:42
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Ayuh, the woman who was elected Governor of New Hampshire three times is a feckin' flatlandah compared to Scott "Live Free And Die" Brown.
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Apr 15, 2014 02:43
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So here's Tommy Moll from my district. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ku0ljFk6Z0Y He's the weird looking guy that looks like he's searching for chap stick. Anyway, he's your standard conservative: http://www.arktimes.com/ArkansasBlog/archives/2013/08/19/a-3rd-republican-tommy-moll-announces-for-4th-district-congress quote:The Fourth District needs a leader in Washington with a business background who understands how the private sector creates jobs and how government intervention harms economic growth. Which was followed up with quote:Previously, Tommy worked at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC, where his research highlighted ways the federal government can open new markets for American businesses and farms. Meanwhile, in Senate news, we're getting hammered with ads because of Americans for Prosperity. http://www.arktimes.com/ArkansasBlog/archives/2014/04/14/outside-money-pouring-in-to-the-pryor-cotton-race Over 2 million dollars spent in advertising, 1.4 million alone comes from them. Meanwhile the actual politicians Mark Pryor (D) accounts for 7% and Tom Cotton (R) accounts for 5%. Still, Pryor is narrowly in the lead, and as much as I dislike him at least it would keep Cotton from his normal terribleness. I love politics.
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Apr 15, 2014 02:45
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FMguru posted:That's a classic Karl Rove campaign technique - figure out what your greatest weakness is, and accuse your opponent of it. It scrambles the narrative, puts them on the defensive, confuses low-information voters, and forces the media to treat your biggest weakness as a he-said/she-said/perhaps the truth is somewhere in the middle kind of muddle, which has the overall effect of nullifying your weakness. For example: aggressively tarring John Kerry as a chickenshit fake solider who shirked his duty and lied about his service.
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Apr 15, 2014 17:27
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FlamingLiberal posted:Rick Scott's people did the same thing down here to deflect from the massive Medicare penalty his company paid for fraud when he was running it. He smeared his opponent Alex Sink by exaggerating some thing she was involved in that even then paled in comparison to his gigantic scandal. He was just getting pointing out that during Alex Sink's tenure as Florida's Chief Financial Officer the state lost billions. If you happened to jump to the conclusion from the ominous music, disappointed voice over, and technically* true statements that it was all her fault and not due to the financial crash of 2008, well looks like that's on you. * actually not true
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Apr 15, 2014 18:02
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De Nomolos posted:What I don't get is why he chose NH. That's a pretty intelligent state. Why not Florida? No one is actually from there and they'll elect criminals if they like old people enough and know the right lies to tell. His move may also be heavily motivated by the Free State Project happening there. (It's apparently annoying a whole lot of the locals...) Basically a bunch of Libertarians moved up to NH with the express goal of taking the state over and turning it into an Ayn Rand wet dream since it had such a small population, etc. He may just think he has a good chance getting elected there because of this. (His goal may or may not be to help keep this agenda rolling, as it's kinda floundering right now, ultimately it's the same selfish motivation to get elected somehow though.) Silver says Dems are gonna lose the senate...  I really wish we could be less boring and less poo poo.
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Apr 15, 2014 20:27
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Jenner posted:His move may also be heavily motivated by the Free State Project happening there. (It's apparently annoying a whole lot of the locals...) Basically a bunch of Libertarians moved up to NH with the express goal of taking the state over and turning it into an Ayn Rand wet dream since it had such a small population, etc. He may just think he has a good chance getting elected there because of this. (His goal may or may not be to help keep this agenda rolling, as it's kinda floundering right now, ultimately it's the same selfish motivation to get elected somehow though.) There's as much distance between the Free Staters and Scott Brown as there is between Scott Brown and the Socialist Party USA. Free Staters are the sort of people that want Burning Man to be an everyday occurrence in Keene.
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Apr 16, 2014 01:11
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Ted Yoho, who you might recall had to apologize for getting drunk and skinny dipping in the Sea of Galilee and is also being primaried by a conservative vampire larper, has some questions about the constitutionality of this here "Civil Rights Act".quote:YOHO: This country grew through a lot of growing pain. We're going through it again. As we grow as a country and prosper, we're going to go through it again in the future. That's why I'm so thankful for the Constitution because it allows us to do that. Is it constitutional, the Civil Rights Act? I wish I could answer that 100 percent. I know a lot of things that were passed are not constitutional, but I know it's the law of the land. Better file a case with SCOTUS pronto, Teddy. We really should get to the bottom of that one.
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Apr 16, 2014 01:21
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Bring me up to speed: who's expected to win the midterms this year? Is the GOP going to take the Senate and keep the House, or vice versa?
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Apr 16, 2014 01:25
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AYC posted:Bring me up to speed: who's expected to win the midterms this year? Is the GOP going to take the Senate and keep the House, or vice versa? GOP will probably keep the House, Senate is a tossup.
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Apr 16, 2014 01:28
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The GOP will have the house at least until the 2020 or 2022 election depending on the time frame for the census and re-districting.
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Apr 16, 2014 01:36
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Joementum posted:Ted Yoho, who you might recall had to apologize for getting drunk and skinny dipping in the Sea of Galilee and is also being primaried by a conservative vampire larper, has some questions about the constitutionality of this here "Civil Rights Act". Actually, the skinny-dipping guy is Kevin Yoder from Kansas. But yeah, telling a black guy to his face that you don't know if the Civil Rights Act is constitutional is really bad.
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Apr 16, 2014 02:08
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Gygaxian posted:Actually, the skinny-dipping guy is Kevin Yoder from Kansas. But yeah, telling a black guy to his face that you don't know if the Civil Rights Act is constitutional is really bad. Dammit! I always get them confused. Though it really was Ted Yoho who said that repealing Obamacare is a lot like what Rosa Parks and MLK did so he does seem to be in favor of the Civil Rights movement generally 
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Apr 16, 2014 02:16
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Joementum posted:Better file a case with SCOTUS pronto, Teddy. We really should get to the bottom of that one. Don't give him ideas! This will backfire horribly when the Supreme Court votes 5-4 to overturn the Civil Rights Act. "John Roberts wrote the Court's majority opinion. 'Racism is over or possibly never existed,' he declares. Scalia's concurring opinion advised the nation 'Around Blacks, never relax', while Thomas in his separate concurrence delved into a battered 1760 Georgia grammar school book that defined 'The God-Given Liberty of the White Man to enjoy his Property in Negro Slaves' as a 'Privilege of Citizenship' that is 'Immune to Impairments by Decrees of King or Parliament'. His opinion concludes that 'This demonstrates that in the common vernacular of the day, slave ownership was considered a privilege and immunity of white citizenship, and therefore the protection given in the 14th Amendment to these aforementioned Privileges and Immunities of Citizens of the United States, means the Framers of the 14th Amendment intended to repeal the anti-slavery provisions of their earlier, much-regretted 13th Amendment'"
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Apr 16, 2014 02:20
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Well, I caught that out of the corner of my eye and definitely checked SCOTUSBlog.
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Apr 16, 2014 02:21
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VitalSigns posted:"John Roberts wrote the Court's majority opinion. 'Racism is over or possibly never existed,' he declares. Scalia's concurring opinion advised the nation 'Around Blacks, never relax', while Thomas in his separate concurrence delved into a battered 1760 Georgia grammar school book that defined 'The God-Given Liberty of the White Man to enjoy his Property in Negro Slaves' as a 'Privilege of Citizenship' that is 'Immune to Impairments by Decrees of King or Parliament'. His opinion concludes that 'This demonstrates that in the common vernacular of the day, slave ownership was considered a privilege and immunity of white citizenship, and therefore the protection given in the 14th Amendment to these aforementioned Privileges and Immunities of Citizens of the United States, means the Framers of the 14th Amendment intended to repeal the anti-slavery provisions of their earlier, much-regretted 13th Amendment'" gently caress I knew I was hoarding guns and Cup O' Noodle for a reason.
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Apr 16, 2014 02:28
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Raskolnikov38 posted:The GOP will have the house at least until the 2020 or 2022 election depending on the time frame for the census and re-districting. Ehh, there's a decent chance for 2016/2018, depending on how bad the GOP messaging gets, who the nominees are, and how bad 2014 turns out. If the democrats manage to tread water this election, they only need a 20 seat shift--not out of the question for a minor presidential wave election. A lot of "ifs" in that though.
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Apr 16, 2014 06:41
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Jenner posted:Silver says Dems are gonna lose the senate... Silver's only saying the situation doesn't look great now. But six months is an eternity in politics, and I have a feeling these midterms aren't going to be a wave for anybody, but decided on local levels by whatever metrics people care about in each state and district. Obamacare won't quite be as much of a negative, but Democrats largely won't have the spine to run on it either. I'm predicting Democrats lose Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, but pull it out everywhere else somehow.
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Apr 16, 2014 07:16
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Spatula City posted:Obamacare won't quite be as much of a negative, but Democrats largely won't have the spine to run on it either. They're pretty much just running against the Koch Brothers at this point. Which is a little risky since it requires an extra level of knowledge most voters don't have, and the ads so far haven't done a good enough job tying Koch campaign groups to the attack ads running against them. Alec Bald Snatch fucked around with this message at 08:46 on Apr 16, 2014 |
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Apr 16, 2014 08:44
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Rumor has it that Kathleen Sebelius is going to run for Senate in Kansas, challenging either the incumbent Pat Roberts or Milton Wolf, the radiologist who's Obama's second cousin and likes to post x-rays of his patients on Facebook for laughs. I'm guessing Obamacare would be an issue in that race. Just a hunch.
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Apr 16, 2014 13:58
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Joementum posted:Rumor has it that Kathleen Sebelius is going to run for Senate in Kansas, challenging either the incumbent Pat Roberts or Milton Wolf, the radiologist who's Obama's second cousin and likes to post x-rays of his patients on Facebook for laughs. What's the view on her tenure as governor?
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Apr 16, 2014 14:07
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Joementum posted:Rumor has it that Kathleen Sebelius is going to run for Senate in Kansas, challenging either the incumbent Pat Roberts or Milton Wolf, the radiologist who's Obama's second cousin and likes to post x-rays of his patients on Facebook for laughs. Is this the Democratic equivalent of seppuku after dishonouring yourself to your party?
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Apr 16, 2014 14:13
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FAUXTON posted:What's the view on her tenure as governor? From an (old) PPP poll, her favorability ratings plummeted after taking the job in Obama's cabinet.
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Apr 16, 2014 14:24
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She had crazy ideas as Governor, like "let's balance the budget by raising sufficient tax revenue", which she did in her first term. Thankfully, her successor, Sam Brownback, has completely rejected that idea.
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Apr 16, 2014 14:27
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Putting "kansas budget" into google news is depressing "In 2012, Kansas enacted one of the largest tax cuts of any state ever, and the short-term results aren’t promising, a new report finds." "Kansas’s revenue drop last year was second only to Alaska’s" "The impact of the 2012 cuts was uneven as a share of income. The cuts saved the wealthiest 1 percent the most, as a share of their income. Only one group saw taxes eat up a larger share of their income: the bottom fifth."
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Apr 16, 2014 16:00
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FAUXTON posted:What's the view on her tenure as governor? She had good favorability ratings at the time. But she's just spent the past five years pushing Obamacare (and Obama in general) and is running for a seat in the senate, rather than the governor's office. Assuming the Tea Party lunatic doesn't win (and he won't) it will just be an issue of whether Roberts has to spend money to beat her. Anyways, I doubt that she will run for it, this strikes me as a leak to the press to put pressure on someone, either her to run or from her to Roberts telling him that she's pissed at the way he attacked her term as SoHHS.
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Apr 16, 2014 16:47
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From a political standpoint, Obamas 1st term cabinet was poorly assembled. He chose: - a swing state senator whose appointed successor barely won due to running against a bad candidate (CO) - a red state-turning-purple governor who could have been a senator in 2012 but instead got to run America's most hated agency, including the TSA (AZ) - a popular Dem governor in a red state who was the only real hope they had there (KS) Even some of the picks since then have been sorta dumb in that respect. Anthony Foxx could have run for any statewide job as a successful mayor of Charlotte. Now he'd have to as OBAMAS Secretary of Transportation in a state that keeps finding ways to suck despite teetering on swing status. Hell, even Biden's seat would have been lost if not for Christine ODonnell. Too bad Daschle didn't have his poo poo together enough to be the fall guy.
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Apr 16, 2014 16:54
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De Nomolos posted:Even some of the picks since then have been sorta dumb in that respect. Anthony Foxx could have run for any statewide job as a successful mayor of Charlotte. Now he'd have to as OBAMAS Secretary of Transportation in a state that keeps finding ways to suck despite teetering on swing status. Between Mayor McCheese and Patrick Cannon I think everyone's kinda soured on Charlotte mayors for a while. That'd probably be a bigger mark against him than serving in a cabinet job most people aren't aware exists.
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Apr 17, 2014 00:00
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I've never understood why politicians who are on an upward trajectory take second-tier cabinet positions, or why Obama was so insistent on staffing his administration with Democratic Senators and Governors from swing states (that often ended up being replaced by Republicans). Is spending 3-5 years overseeing the VA or HUD or the Labor Department really worth bailing on a Senate seat for?
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Apr 17, 2014 00:04
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FMguru posted:I've never understood why politicians who are on an upward trajectory take second-tier cabinet positions, or why Obama was so insistent on staffing his administration with Democratic Senators and Governors from swing states (that often ended up being replaced by Republicans). Is spending 3-5 years overseeing the VA or HUD or the Labor Department really worth bailing on a Senate seat for? Better pay, better connections, sense of purpose, you get speaker fees forever, you can become a consultant, all come to the top of my mind.
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Apr 17, 2014 00:28
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FMguru posted:I've never understood why politicians who are on an upward trajectory take second-tier cabinet positions, or why Obama was so insistent on staffing his administration with Democratic Senators and Governors from swing states (that often ended up being replaced by Republicans). Is spending 3-5 years overseeing the VA or HUD or the Labor Department really worth bailing on a Senate seat for? It's a chance to actually get stuff done, as compared to being in permanent congressional gridlock and at best be able to pass budgets at the last hour while cutting out badly needed programs so that the insane tea partiers will vote for it.
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Apr 17, 2014 00:38
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Obdicut posted:It's a chance to actually get stuff done, as compared to being in permanent congressional gridlock and at best be able to pass budgets at the last hour while cutting out badly needed programs so that the insane tea partiers will vote for it. Also years where you don't have to campaign/fundraise.
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Apr 17, 2014 00:39
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Being a cabinet secretary is a doubt edged sword. On one hand, you can be an executive and get things done. On the other hand, if you screw up, you're out of government for good pretty much. Your eventual pension (as long as you have the minimum of 5 years of service by age 62) won't be much. I get that Obama wanted people who knew the Senate well to help him pass stuff, knowing it was more likely to be harder to get to 60 votes than to make sure Pelosi could get 218 (which she always did), and Biden and Daschle were supposed to do that. Daschle dropping out was a killer. But why snatch up governors? Did Sebelius and Napolitano just want out? Then again, even failed cabinet secretaries get gigs selling whatever poo poo right wing think tanks and orgs are slinging. I guarantee even James Watt worked for someone after DOI.
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Apr 17, 2014 01:23
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The quality of life for the well-connected is much nicer in DC than Topeka or Phoenix.
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Apr 17, 2014 02:02
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I kind of thought zoux or shifty pony or someone else would have already pointed this out but, based on even a sketchy polling service, Wendy Davis is in serious trouble in Texas. According to Public Policy Polling, 47% have an unfavorable view of Davis and only 41% of women favor her while 49% favor Abbott. I am really disappointed in the campaign she has run up to this point. Davis has no political future in Texas after this election. Why she wouldn't lay it all on the line and go for the throat of her opponent is incomprehensible. When she announced, I was expecting to get Ann Richards or Barbara Jordan level of commitment. Instead, we got Hillary light, which is not going to win anything in a solid red state.
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Apr 17, 2014 02:36
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Yeah, I can't see Wendy Davis winning the election in Texas. In addition to the reasons you mentioned, the demographics just aren't there yet.
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Apr 17, 2014 02:38
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