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Truther Vandross
Jun 17, 2008

These fuckers are going to cannibalize themselves and Spencer is going to win by virtue of never actually being in a position of power to piss anyone off.

We'll get a Spencer/Kass/Jeremiah/Tasha final four, Spence wins immunity, Tasha goes home, Spencer walks with the cash.

Truther Vandross fucked around with this message at 04:59 on Apr 17, 2014

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paperchaseguy
Feb 21, 2002

THEY'RE GONNA SAY NO
I think Tony and Woo will go back to the alliance of sixfive and sweet talk them. Better to ask forgiveness than permission.

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
This season rules.

paperchaseguy posted:

I think Tony and Woo will go back to the alliance of sixfive and sweet talk them. Better to ask forgiveness than permission.

I could definitely see that happening. Choosing to go to the end with Kass/Jefra/Trish over Spencer/Tash/Jeremiah seems like a no brainer to me, and its not like the former will have any leverage, unless they try and work with Spencer to take out Tony, which seems unlikely.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=
I think it's a tricky move either way. Trish was already seeing through Tony's bullshit and is unlikely to trust him, and Jefra just had her top ally whipped away from her - she has to know that she'd be on the chopping block the next time Tony feels like culling his alliance. Kass may be the one asking for forgiveness from Spencer/Tash/Jeremiah regardless of what Tony does now that someone on her side has been shown to be even more unstable than she is.

ColdBlooded
Jul 15, 2001

Ask me how to run a good team into the ground.
I think Jefra is going to be upset over LJ's blindside and won't want to work with Tony anymore. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if she got voted out next week, if Tony/Trish/Woo/Kass are still good then I bet Jefra is gone next.

Snooze Cruise
Feb 16, 2013

hey look,
a post
I hope Jeremiah wins this somehow, he is the perfect straight man to all the crazy shenanigans that have been going on.

Wren610
Oct 25, 2010
Not really a good move but a very entertaining move ie Tony in a nutshell. Funny thing is if someone gets to the end with Tony and Kass its an instant million bucks prolly to hard to pull off though. It will be interesting to see what Trish tries next week as I think she has the best game sense and best possible chance to coerce a flip. LJ you got noone to blame but yourself you saw Tony was unraveling you could have talked to Tasha and tried to shore things up with the minority tribe instead you went on autopilot. Spencer,Jerm,Tasha should be in a good spot next week if their smart they consider approaching Jefra/Trish cause then they can cut Tony,Kass,Woo loose if they need to.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
I think based on Tony's last confessional before Tribal he clearly wanted to vote out LJ and then return to his old alliance, especially Trish. The problem is that he seems to underestimate how hard Jefra and Trish will have taken this vote, and how unlikely they are to trust him now.

Of course, with this season it's hard to trust anybody. You have two hugely unpredictable and aggressive players in Kass and Tony, and Tony appears to come with Woo's vote automatically. With only 8 players left, any majority next week will almost certainly need to rely on one or both of Chaos Kass or Cops R Us.

JesusSinfulHands
Oct 24, 2007
Sartre and Russell are my heroes
I'd like to point out that according to last week's preview Tony wanted to blindside Woo. Once again the previews are completely misleading

Milovan Drecun
Apr 17, 2007
I masturbate in traffic.

ColdBlooded posted:

I think Jefra is going to be upset over LJ's blindside and won't want to work with Tony anymore. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if she got voted out next week, if Tony/Trish/Woo/Kass are still good then I bet Jefra is gone next.

This probably isn't going to happen. Jeffra is not going to sit down and take it, not when there are three others she can counter that four with. Kass also knows not to trust Tony since she was kept entirely out of the loop on LJ. For the bottom three, it makes even less sense for them to let it happen. This is their opportunity to do something, not allow Tony to dictate the game. Jeffra could go, but it's more likely by Tony/Woo working with Spencer/Jeremiah (who may or may not have Tasha). But why not aim higher, why not go for Tony or Woo?

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

Hey Hey Let's Go! 喧嘩する
大切な物を protect my balls


Wren610 posted:

Funny thing is if someone gets to the end with Tony and Kass its an instant million bucks prolly to hard to pull off though.

Not sure Tony has pissed off enough people to lose the end vote yet. He's going to get Sarah's vote and Morgan didn't exactly go out with a grudge against Tony.

He's playing a solid game that will probably get recognized in the end by the number of Survivor fans that will be on the jury!

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Tony and Woo probably did blow up the alliance, but I think it's best for everyone to stick together. LJ was a threat. Trish, Kass, and Jefra should be able to stay under the radar until they reach the top 5, where they will have a 3-2 majority over Tony and Woo. From Tony's perspective, those women are not as strong in challenges as Tasha, Spencer, or Jeremiah.

Midrena
May 2, 2009

UltimoDragonQuest posted:

Tony and Woo probably did blow up the alliance, but I think it's best for everyone to stick together. LJ was a threat. Trish, Kass, and Jefra should be able to stay under the radar until they reach the top 5, where they will have a 3-2 majority over Tony and Woo. From Tony's perspective, those women are not as strong in challenges as Tasha, Spencer, or Jeremiah.

But are those women "worthy enough" and "deserving enough" to be allowed to stay in the game? :v:

BGrifter
Mar 16, 2007

Winner of Something Awful PS5 thread's Posting Excellence Award June 2022

Congratulations!
Wow, another fantastic episode. Kind of weird to see LJ go out in such underwhelming fashion, he looked like a potential dominant winner just a few episodes ago.

Spencer is in fantastic shape. He's in a position to ride the Tony train to the end, or take him out in a week or two and go to the end with any number of unpopular/irrelevant players. The last couple weeks were really tricky and he caught a couple good breaks to make it through, but now he should have some room to play. Holding his idol tonight was pretty drat ballsy.

Tony is making this season a blast to watch. The guy is like Russell Hantz with the volume cranked up to eleven and a steady diet of uppers. He's likely lost at least two if not three of the three jury members so far. I don't know that he has a chance to win but I'll have fun watching him try.

At this point I don't know that I see anyone else getting much of an edit to win. Jefra and Jeremiah are invisible, Trish has had a couple moments but isn't looking particularly strong, Kass has pissed off way too many jury members, maybe Tasha I guess? I don't think Woo will be Fabio-ing it up, although put him in a final three with Tony and Kass it could happen?

JesusSinfulHands
Oct 24, 2007
Sartre and Russell are my heroes
LJ was basically Marcus/Mick 3.0, a boring milquetoast guy who *looked* like a winner but completely underwhelmed both on the show and on TV.

The vibe I've been getting from Spencer all season has been as a likable underdog (though clearly not everybody shares this opinion, heh) who comes close but doesn't quite win, much like Malcolm in Philippines...or even Cirie or Yau-Man from seasons past. Who knows though; this season seems destined to be one of those clusterfuck seasons where someone who doesn't fit the mold wins (see: Pearl Islands, Gabon, Nicaragua), and while there are huge flaws in the edits of everyone remaining if you squint a lot you could make a case for all of them having a chance to win....yes, even Jefra and Kass.

Except Jeremiah. Jeremiah is not winning poo poo

JesusSinfulHands fucked around with this message at 11:23 on Apr 17, 2014

Piell
Sep 3, 2006

Grey Worm's Ken doll-like groin throbbed with the anticipatory pleasure that only a slightly warm and moist piece of lemoncake could offer


Young Orc

SLICK GOKU BABY posted:

Not sure Tony has pissed off enough people to lose the end vote yet. He's going to get Sarah's vote and Morgan didn't exactly go out with a grudge against Tony.

He's playing a solid game that will probably get recognized in the end by the number of Survivor fans that will be on the jury!

No loving way Tony would get Sarah's vote. He's a lying cop, while Sarah takes being a cop incredibly seriously.

Bigass Moth
Mar 6, 2004

I joined the #RXT REVOLUTION.
:boom:
he knows...

Piell posted:

No loving way Tony would get Sarah's vote. He's a lying cop, while Sarah takes being a cop incredibly seriously.

Sarah is really dumb though. He could give her any excuse in the world and relate it to the Badge of Honor and she may vote for him.

weird Asian candy
Aug 23, 2005

Ask me about how my football team's success determines my self worth, and how I wish I lived in New Orleans.

Bigass Moth posted:

Sarah is really dumb though. He could give her any excuse in the world and relate it to the Badge of Honor and she may vote for him.

I could totally see this happening. Sarah seems pretty naive and trustworthy for being a cop. The look on her face when Tony said he worked construction was priceless :v:

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

How can people (Woo) believe the stories Tony tells when they sit next to that same dude at tribal council and he claims he's a construction worker. When he gives Jeremiah a clue to an idol that's not even on that beach. How is he getting away with this stuff?

BGrifter posted:

He's likely lost at least two if not three of the three jury members so far. I don't know that he has a chance to win but I'll have fun watching him try.
I dunno man, I wouldn't be that worried about jury votes if I were Tony. People don't seem to dislike him. I'd be more worried about navigating the fallout from all these crazy moves he's making so he doesn't find himself in a minority position.

Fast Luck fucked around with this message at 15:56 on Apr 17, 2014

Bjay9
May 3, 2011

Kid, touch is for video games and gynecologists
I honestly have a feeling that the next couple votes are gonna go something like Jefra for trying to retaliate towards Tony, Woo for being Tony's direct competition and then Trish for being fed up with Tony's poo poo. At this point, Spence, Tasha and Jeremiah are Tony's least concerns because he's treating his own(former??) alliance as the threat. It basically gives them the inside track for the final 3 but I just know that Kass is gonna wiggle in there some where because who couldn't resist taking her to the end.

BGrifter
Mar 16, 2007

Winner of Something Awful PS5 thread's Posting Excellence Award June 2022

Congratulations!

Fast Luck posted:

I dunno man, I wouldn't be that worried about jury votes if I were Tony. People don't seem to dislike him. I'd be more worried about navigating the fallout from all these crazy moves he's making so he doesn't find himself in a minority position.

Tony's game is already falling apart at Pondarosa. You saw Sarah's reaction and she's going to be pure jury poison for him. He'd need a miracle to counteract that.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Bjay9 posted:

I honestly have a feeling that the next couple votes are gonna go something like Jefra for trying to retaliate towards Tony, Woo for being Tony's direct competition and then Trish for being fed up with Tony's poo poo. At this point, Spence, Tasha and Jeremiah are Tony's least concerns because he's treating his own(former??) alliance as the threat. It basically gives them the inside track for the final 3 but I just know that Kass is gonna wiggle in there some where because who couldn't resist taking her to the end.

I don't know why they wouldn't take out Trish first. But the alliances are going to be really weird and tenuous. If people could forgive and look at things sensibly, Tony's old alliance could come back together, because they can still be the final 5, and now they don't have to worry about LJ being at FTC with them. But I've seen before that with an alliance like that, a zombie mentality creeps in, and it becomes all about the SACRED ALLIANCE, even though that won't mean poo poo by the time it's just them or maybe a tribal council before that if the last social pariah wins immunity. And so when someone breaks that alliance, instead of recognizing their play, they get all lovely. A likely reaction from both Trish and Jefra, and given Kass's remarkably low self-awareness, she might be upset too.
At this point final 3 could easily be Spencer/Tasha/Jeremiah, as the other alliance eats itself alive for their amusement.
Reasonable plan: Trish first, Woo second, Jefra third, Tony fourth, Kass fifth. Because they need Tony's vote to oust Trish, although Woo's a wildcard here. Maybe he sticks with Tony, continuing to believe his lies, or maybe there's a deadlock at 8.

BGrifter
Mar 16, 2007

Winner of Something Awful PS5 thread's Posting Excellence Award June 2022

Congratulations!
Hopefully that stupid Tyler Perry idol never gets found. It'd be a drat shame seeing this season ruined by an overpowered gimmick idol at the last minute.

Juanito
Jan 20, 2004

I wasn't paying attention
to what you just said.

Can you repeat yourself
in a more interesting way?
Hell Gem

BGrifter posted:

Hopefully that stupid Tyler Perry idol never gets found. It'd be a drat shame seeing this season ruined by an overpowered gimmick idol at the last minute.
I'm absolutely dreading it.

Unless Tasha finds it.

Piell
Sep 3, 2006

Grey Worm's Ken doll-like groin throbbed with the anticipatory pleasure that only a slightly warm and moist piece of lemoncake could offer


Young Orc
It's really loving weird that it hasn't shown up yet, I would have thought it would shown up as Spencer's idol. Next week's preview didn't have anything about it, so it's starting to get to the point where there's not really any time to use it.

savinhill
Mar 28, 2010

Fast Luck posted:

How can people (Woo) believe the stories Tony tells when they sit next to that same dude at tribal council and he claims he's a construction worker. When he gives Jeremiah a clue to an idol that's not even on that beach. How is he getting away with this stuff?

I dunno man, I wouldn't be that worried about jury votes if I were Tony. People don't seem to dislike him. I'd be more worried about navigating the fallout from all these crazy moves he's making so he doesn't find himself in a minority position.

Yeah, there's also the risk that he'll make himself look even more unreliable and tricky to everyone or trip himself up with all the different lies and schemes he's put out there when he's explaining his move to his alliance members. If he's lucky he'll get to take care of this in one on one conversations instead of having to do it at camp with everyone around.



JesusSinfulHands posted:

LJ was basically Marcus/Mick 3.0, a boring milquetoast guy who *looked* like a winner but completely underwhelmed both on the show and on TV.


He was a good player imo, he got taken out by a crazy, unpredictable move and it's pretty easy to get overshadowed personality-wise on a season like this. He seemed pretty perceptive and game-smart in his confessionals and did well in challenges, I don't see what else he could have done that wouldn't have just been overplaying.

Bigass Moth
Mar 6, 2004

I joined the #RXT REVOLUTION.
:boom:
he knows...

BGrifter posted:

Hopefully that stupid Tyler Perry idol never gets found. It'd be a drat shame seeing this season ruined by an overpowered gimmick idol at the last minute.

I guarantee you a popularly edited player will find it in a desperate time of need, so probably Tony when he's on the rocks in a week or two.

BGrifter
Mar 16, 2007

Winner of Something Awful PS5 thread's Posting Excellence Award June 2022

Congratulations!

Bigass Moth posted:

I guarantee you a popularly edited player will find it in a desperate time of need, so probably Tony when he's on the rocks in a week or two.

He might even say it's huge *heavy breathing* and that he really needed it.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

I'm waiting for the reveal that #ChaosKass has found the superidol weeks ago and is just holding on to it and not telling anyone.

Kalas
Jul 27, 2007

Pinterest Mom posted:

I'm waiting for the reveal that #ChaosKass has found the superidol weeks ago and is just holding on to it and not telling anyone.

No no, the big twist is that it's actually hidden in Ponderosa and a jury member gets to play it during a Tribal Council.
The ultimate bitter jury member's revenge.

(I fully expect to see this some time before Survivor finally gets canceled, where they're scraping the barrel when they can't come up with anything interesting for that season's twist)

Bjay9
May 3, 2011

Kid, touch is for video games and gynecologists
Next week or the episode after that is about the time when we'd normally see the Survivor Auction so I imagine we'll see a clue come out for this lovely idol then.

Juanito
Jan 20, 2004

I wasn't paying attention
to what you just said.

Can you repeat yourself
in a more interesting way?
Hell Gem

Kalas posted:

No no, the big twist is that it's actually hidden in Ponderosa and a jury member gets to play it during a Tribal Council.
The ultimate bitter jury member's revenge.

(I fully expect to see this some time before Survivor finally gets canceled, where they're scraping the barrel when they can't come up with anything interesting for that season's twist)
Tonight's guest jury member is Tyler Perry!

On next week's episode, don't miss Adam Sandler's hilarious hosting of the immunity challenge!

Aerox
Jan 8, 2012

Juanito posted:

Tonight's guest jury member is Tyler Perry!

On next week's episode, don't miss Adam Sandler's hilarious hosting of the immunity challenge!

This just reminded me of one of the funniest reward challenge wins of all time.

Joose Caboose
Apr 17, 2013

Bjay9 posted:

Next week or the episode after that is about the time when we'd normally see the Survivor Auction so I imagine we'll see a clue come out for this lovely idol then.

I could see this being next week due to Jeff's weekly interview with Dalton Ross mentioning that next week will have letters from home which IIRC have been part of the Survivor Auction quite a few times

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
So, I've heard rumors there's going to be a Final 2 rather than a Final 3 this season.

Asiina
Apr 26, 2011

No going back
Grimey Drawer
Isn't that a rumor basically every season?

Meinberg
Oct 9, 2011

inspired by but legally distinct from CATS (2019)
It's scheduling speculation, which is perhaps valid, perhaps not. It might be a one hour finale, for example.

The Lord Bude
May 23, 2007

ASK ME ABOUT MY SHITTY, BOUGIE INTERIOR DECORATING ADVICE

Meinberg posted:

It's scheduling speculation, which is perhaps valid, perhaps not. It might be a one hour finale, for example.

or it could even mean they're going to have a recap + deleted scenes episode. That hasn't happened since south pacific has it?

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
This has been a really good season.

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SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

Hey Hey Let's Go! 喧嘩する
大切な物を protect my balls


The way this season has been going, they might get a solid 2 hour finale with 4 players left instead of the normal 5.

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