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BabyChoom
Jan 7, 2014

by XyloJW
Youssef's show ran for one day after the coup in which he made fun of people who made fun of some sorta candy called "sisi candy". The military then ordered his show off the air. Now he works for Saudi media.

I remember this guy put a sign on a donkey called "Sisi" and road the donkey through town. He was put in a dungeon for "insulting the nation" or some bullshit.

A couple months ago there was a referendum being conducted for the new constitution. Some activists gave out pamphlets for people to read to vote no on it. Those activists handing out literature where arrested and thrown in a dungeon for some bullshit charge like

The truth is that under the Muslim Brotherhood there was some semblance of free speech. The truth is that the MB where more liberal and democratic then the people who where against them and think that the coup is a good thing.

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Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

Paper Mac posted:

The Egyptian deep state isn't a conspiracy theory, for Christ's sake, the military owns and operates at least 10% and as much as 40% of the Egyptian economy. The coup happened because the military saw an opportunity to decapitate an alternative center of political and social power and took it, not because they give a poo poo about democracy or the wellbeing of the average Egyptian.

The Egyptian military/industrial complex is real, but the idea that a nefarious "deep state" is the reason behind Morsi's inability to create a functioning government is pure conspiracy theory. Morsi's administration mistook the election as a mandate for an islamic republic, and his dogged pursuit of such crashed the Egyptian state. He repeatedly tried to challenge the Egyptian military and use it for his own ends. Instead of creating good government and recovering the economy, he focused on extending the power of the Muslim Brotherhood. Suddenly the parliament is discussing whether to cut the hands off thieves, the secular revolutionaries have been barred from power, and Egyptian tourism is at a standstill.

By the end of the first year, the public had lost faith in him, the bureaucracy distanced itself from him, and the police eventually stopped responding to him. Morsi refused to compromise his politics, and the Egyptian military wasn't going to wait three more years of street protests, militia violence and disorder to see him voted out. Egypt's failed revolution should be seen as a practical example for why democracy must be more than a tyranny of the majority.

Radio Prune
Feb 19, 2010
Remember when Morsi was days away from turning Egypt into Literally Iran and the noble military and the elements within the civil state that respected democracy and the will of the people bravely banded together to oust the Mullah Omar wannabe? What a great time that was.

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!
Most of Egypt's non-islamist political scene supported both the coup and the massacres, either by waving off allegations of the military's brutality or condoning them as necessary against terrorists. Even now, with a rising death toll, near-daily protests and clashes, political party/movement bans, mass arrests, anti-protest laws and energy price-hikes, most of Egypt's political scene is still firmly on Sisi's side.

Even the salafist Al-Nour are backing Sisi, but they've been in a productive alliance with the military ever since they backed the coup. They're hoping to win big in the parliamentary elections.

Personally I don't feel Sisi has much of a chance to last even a year in power, the way things are going. Unless he can sustain foreign aid or stop cutting subsidies, something will give.

Kurtofan
Feb 16, 2011

hon hon hon

Ham posted:

Most of Egypt's non-islamist political scene supported both the coup and the massacres, either by waving off allegations of the military's brutality or condoning them as necessary against terrorists. Even now, with a rising death toll, near-daily protests and clashes, political party/movement bans, mass arrests, anti-protest laws and energy price-hikes, most of Egypt's political scene is still firmly on Sisi's side.


That doesn't seem too surprising.

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!

Kaal posted:

The Egyptian military/industrial complex is real, but the idea that a nefarious "deep state" is the reason behind Morsi's inability to create a functioning government is pure conspiracy theory. Morsi's administration mistook the election as a mandate for an islamic republic, and his dogged pursuit of such crashed the Egyptian state. He repeatedly tried to challenge the Egyptian military and use it for his own ends. Instead of creating good government and recovering the economy, he focused on extending the power of the Muslim Brotherhood. Suddenly the parliament is discussing whether to cut the hands off thieves, the secular revolutionaries have been barred from power, and Egyptian tourism is at a standstill.

By the end of the first year, the public had lost faith in him, the bureaucracy distanced itself from him, and the police eventually stopped responding to him. Morsi refused to compromise his politics, and the Egyptian military wasn't going to wait three more years of street protests, militia violence and disorder to see him voted out. Egypt's failed revolution should be seen as a practical example for why democracy must be more than a tyranny of the majority.

This is misrepresenting things. I still don't know how people believe Morsi was doggedly pursuing an Islamic state. He never tried to challenge the Egyptian military, and always tried to co-opt them, including sectioning them off from civil control and giving them constitutional sole control of their judicial, economic and executive actions.

The point about the economy is true, but you can't really say the governments succeeding him are doing any better. Oil/petrol price hikes, daily electricity outages, rising food prices, weak EGP. The tourism is in even more poo poo than when the MB was in power.

As to your last point: the police was never on his side, and neither were the judiciary. They were ultimately left to tend their own fires by the military during their settlement with the MB, and found great allies in the NDP-era businessmen the MB were seeking to replace.

Morsi is not a tragic hero, but neither is he some would-be-tyrant that was going to Islamize Egypt and cause militant clashes (what?)

Ham fucked around with this message at 21:34 on Apr 29, 2014

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Ham posted:

The point about the economy is true, but you can't really say the governments succeeding him are doing any better. Oil/petrol price hikes, daily electricity outages, rising food prices, weak EGP. The tourism is in even more poo poo than when the MB was in power.

There seems to be a decent amount of evidence that the military was most likely using some of its economic power to put pressure on Morsi at the time, and since the two ultimately have contradictory goals (there is only one throne) in some ways it was out of Morsi's hands.

That said, I don't think Morsi really had the "tools" in the toolbox to fix much anyway since he was ultimately quite a free marketer along with the rest of the MB and neo-liberal reforms were pretty unlikely to make any positive impact on already a very poor situation. That said, Sisi doesn't seem to either and if anything the prediction of continual instability seems to be see a strong one.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

Svartvit posted:

TV stations were hawking on Morsi and propping up the coup in a way that would make BabyChoom look like a proper scholar. I remember the military explaining to the press that it had only used blanks and no live ammunition in a fatal attack on protesting brothers, and those who had been shot to death deserved it anyway, and the TV station I watched just gulped it down and justified it (I think it was the same press conference as the one where the al-Jazeera reporter was basically thrown out by the other journalists for various thought crimes). Probably not because they actually believed it, but because politics seems to be some kind of team sport in Egypt. But yeah, the West's favourite liberals Youssef and al-Baradei both were in masturbatory mode after the coup just like everyone else unless I missed something.

Baredei accepted a post in the government, so yeah he was all over it.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Bassem Sabry, the Egyptian journalist, died today, reportedly after falling into a diabetic coma and falling off a balcony.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

Ham posted:

Even the salafist Al-Nour are backing Sisi, but they've been in a productive alliance with the military ever since they backed the coup. They're hoping to win big in the parliamentary elections.

Personally I don't feel Sisi has much of a chance to last even a year in power, the way things are going. Unless he can sustain foreign aid or stop cutting subsidies, something will give.

Wow, al-Nour is still with the military? I just mentioned that El Baradai joined the government after the coup, I almost mentioned that Islamist parties like al-Nour (who were considered more radical than the brotherhood) also joined the government. I just assumed that they left or were forced out after the massacres. I wonder how they can work together at all?

Very good posts, by the way.

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!

Ardennes posted:

There seems to be a decent amount of evidence that the military was most likely using some of its economic power to put pressure on Morsi at the time.

I still don't think this argument is accurate. There's no way to really know, but I believe the military or some part of it might have looked at the MB as a more stable alternative/continuation for Mubarak and the NDP-businessmen of his era. It's just that the same NDP-businessmen and affiliated entities within the police, judiciary and armed forces managed to exert enough pressure that the army had to choose a side. If this is true, I can't think why Sisi would choose the old guard, other than perhaps his personal ambition, or popular will at the time.

I just don't know if the army leadership was capable of or had any motive to plot the MB's rise and downfall. They took advantage of it perhaps, and even kicked it while it was down by the end, but not to that extent. And the current state of the country, both politically and economically, would point to the army's guiding hand being a clusterfuck.

Count Roland posted:

Wow, al-Nour is still with the military? I just mentioned that El Baradai joined the government after the coup, I almost mentioned that Islamist parties like al-Nour (who were considered more radical than the brotherhood) also joined the government. I just assumed that they left or were forced out after the massacres. I wonder how they can work together at all?

Very good posts, by the way.

The MB and Salafis were always going to be strong rivals, they appeal to the same voter-base. They were probably played off each other pretty handily, the MB initially back-stabbed them when they didn't oppose Hazem Abu-Ismail's (Salafi candidate for 2012 elections) disbarment from candidacy. The MB stood to profit the most by his removal as it guaranteed an undivided islamist vote for their chosen candidate.

The salafis just returned the favor in the lead-up to and during the coup, by joining the anti-MB camp. It's probably cost them a lot of support so they're unlikely to back out anytime soon, at least until Sisi's star wanes.

Ham fucked around with this message at 22:05 on Apr 29, 2014

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Ham posted:

I still don't think this argument is accurate. There's no way to really know, but I believe the military or some part of it might have looked at the MB as a more stable alternative/continuation for Mubarak and the NDP-businessmen of his era. It's just that the same NDP-businessmen and affiliated entities within the police, judiciary and armed forces managed to exert enough pressure that the army had to choose a side. If this is true, I can't think why Sisi would choose the old guard, other than perhaps his personal ambition, or popular will at the time.

I just don't know if the army leadership was capable of or had any motive to plot the MB's rise and downfall. They took advantage of it perhaps, and even kicked it while it was down by the end, but not to that extent. And the current state of the country, both politically and economically, would point to the army's guiding hand being a clusterfuck.

Granted, Egypt wasn't doing well under Mubarak either. However, when I look at the efficiency and the totality of Sisi's rise and suppression of the opposition, it really seems like he must have had strong backing from multiple allies.

Some of the chaos was going to happen anyway because Egypt's economy has a whole is broken and has been for a while, but ultimately all of it seemed just too well planned and effective to have happened by happenstance. We probably won't know for a while but the fact that the situation immediately stabilized when the military took over is a pretty telling sign.

I think the situation right now is more of the result of the fact that years gone by and nothing ever has been fixed and pretty much every government possible at this point will look incompetent because Egypt's problems are so deep. There ball is being kicked down a slope and it is unlikely anyone is going to think of kicking it the other way.

BabyChoom
Jan 7, 2014

by XyloJW

Count Roland posted:

Wow, al-Nour is still with the military? I just mentioned that El Baradai joined the government after the coup, I almost mentioned that Islamist parties like al-Nour (who were considered more radical than the brotherhood) also joined the government. I just assumed that they left or were forced out after the massacres. I wonder how they can work together at all?

Very good posts, by the way.

Al-Nour are good little salifists who do whatever Saudi Arabia tells them to do. Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries started dumping billions of dollars into the Egyptian government because they also hate democracy and the MB. They rather have wahabi or salifists dominating in political Islam then any other form of Islam.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Here's the Islamic Front's mortar factory, claiming to produce 10,000 rounds a month, and 100 mortars, of varying calibres

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5eCqUBiK7k

[edit] There appears to be a few of these, here's one captured by the Syrian army, quite a large facility

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ua3QHfq5-Q

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 22:25 on Apr 29, 2014

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

Ham posted:

This is misrepresenting things. I still don't know how people believe Morsi was doggedly pursuing an Islamic state. He never tried to challenge the Egyptian military, and always tried to co-opt them, including sectioning them off from civil control and giving them constitutional sole control of their judicial, economic and executive actions.

The point about the economy is true, but you can't really say the governments succeeding him are doing any better. Oil/petrol price hikes, daily electricity outages, rising food prices, weak EGP. The tourism is in even more poo poo than when the MB was in power.

As to your last point: the police was never on his side, and neither were the judiciary. They were ultimately left to tend their own fires by the military during their settlement with the MB, and found great allies in the NDP-era businessmen the MB were seeking to replace.

Morsi is not a tragic hero, but neither is he some would-be-tyrant that was going to Islamize Egypt and cause militant clashes (what?)

I think that this is rather revisionist history. If we go back to the news articles that were being put out in the last few years, we see that there was quite a bit of concern about Morsi's tense relationship with the military, and that the Egyptian military and police were basically objecting to how Morsi was using them as a tool for further Islamization. And the bureaucracy and the judiciary felt similarly. One must remember that Morsi came in on the wave of a fairly popular revolution - and that even if people didn't vote for him, the Brotherhood enjoyed several honeymoon months where any problems could be blamed on or compared to Mubarak. It simply isn't true that the police and judiciary were always against Morsi; it was his unwillingness to cooperate with any other branch of government, and his constant attempts at power-grabbing, that eventually turned everyone against the Brotherhood. I feel that this line of argument is a misguided attempt at getting Morsi off the hook for taking a popular revolution and mismanaging it to the point that the public lost faith in the democratic process within a year.

AP posted:

A series of interviews by The Associated Press with defense, security and intelligence officials paint a picture of a president who intended to flex his civilian authority as supreme commander of the armed forces, issuing orders to el-Sissi. In turn, the military chief believed Morsi was leading the country into turmoil and repeatedly challenged him, defying his orders in at least two cases. [...]

The reason, the officials said, was because of profound policy differences with Morsi. El-Sissi saw him as dangerously mismanaging a wave of protests early in the year that saw dozens killed by security forces. More significantly, however, the military also worried that Morsi was giving a free hand to Islamic militants in the Sinai Peninsula, ordering el-Sissi to stop crackdowns on jihadis who had killed Egyptian soldiers and were escalating a campaign of violence. [...]

Its alliances with Gaza's Hamas rulers and other Islamist groups alarmed the military, which believed Gaza militants were involved in Sinai violence. The officials said the military leadership also believed the Brotherhood was trying to co-opt commanders to turn against el-Sissi. [...]

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/disputes-between-morsi-military-led-egypt-coup-0

Kaal fucked around with this message at 23:30 on Apr 29, 2014

Sergg
Sep 19, 2005

I was rejected by the:

What's happening in Iraq right now? Last I heard, poo poo was really hitting the fan that more and more towns were falling to the ISIS onslaught and more and more Sunni tribes were defecting to the rebel side.

Gen. Ripper
Jan 12, 2013


Brown Moses posted:

Bassem Sabry, the Egyptian journalist, died today, reportedly after falling into a diabetic coma and falling off a balcony.

Was Sabry particularly anti-military? Because this reads like a North Korean official getting shot and then the state media saying he died in a car crash.

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

Gen. Ripper posted:

Was Sabry particularly anti-military? Because this reads like a North Korean official getting shot and then the state media saying he died in a car crash.

It doesn't look like it to me. He comes across as a reformer but one who was supportive of the fall of Morsi.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/11/egypt-economic-recovery-sabry.html
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/11/egypt-morsitrial-sabry.html

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!

Kaal posted:

I think that this is rather revisionist history. If we go back to the news articles that were being put out in the last few years, we see that there was quite a bit of concern about Morsi's tense relationship with the military, and that the Egyptian military and police were basically objecting to how Morsi was using them as a tool for further Islamization. And the bureaucracy and the judiciary felt similarly. One must remember that Morsi came in on the wave of a fairly popular revolution - and that even if people didn't vote for him, the Brotherhood enjoyed several honeymoon months where any problems could be blamed on or compared to Mubarak. It simply isn't true that the police and judiciary were always against Morsi; it was his unwillingness to cooperate with any other branch of government, and his constant attempts at power-grabbing, that eventually turned everyone against the Brotherhood. I feel that this line of argument is a misguided attempt at getting Morsi off the hook for taking a popular revolution and mismanaging it to the point that the public lost faith in the democratic process within a year.

You still haven't posted anything furthering Morsi islamizing the country and it being a concern for the military. In fact, all evidence points to a fruitful relationship between the MB and the military, upto a week before the coup.

The police and judiciary were clearly against Morsi. The police specifically are an extremely corrupt, morally defunct organization with strong ties to Mubarak-era politicians. Many governors and ministers were actually police generals; so it's odd that you count them as just a government institution that Morsi turned against himself through petty disregard.

Morsi and the MB were a failure; but they were nowhere near the picture you're painting of radicalized islamists bent on usurping democracy.

And it's hilarious that you'd post that article. I didn't know generals who'd just performed a coup, arrested an entire political party, tried them under made-up charges, killed thousands of protesters and repressed any open dissent were such a trustworthy source.

Ham fucked around with this message at 00:43 on Apr 30, 2014

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Gen. Ripper posted:

Was Sabry particularly anti-military? Because this reads like a North Korean official getting shot and then the state media saying he died in a car crash.

poo poo like that happens more often than you'd think. An uncle of mine had a diabetic coma while he was cleaning his pool and near drowned. Without some more evidence even if he was a firebrand type (doesn't seem it) I got no reason to mark this as anything but a sad twist of fate.

pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

Kaal posted:

I think that this is rather revisionist history. If we go back to the news articles that were being put out in the last few years, we see that there was quite a bit of concern about Morsi's tense relationship with the military, and that the Egyptian military and police were basically objecting to how Morsi was using them as a tool for further Islamization. And the bureaucracy and the judiciary felt similarly. One must remember that Morsi came in on the wave of a fairly popular revolution - and that even if people didn't vote for him, the Brotherhood enjoyed several honeymoon months where any problems could be blamed on or compared to Mubarak. It simply isn't true that the police and judiciary were always against Morsi; it was his unwillingness to cooperate with any other branch of government, and his constant attempts at power-grabbing, that eventually turned everyone against the Brotherhood. I feel that this line of argument is a misguided attempt at getting Morsi off the hook for taking a popular revolution and mismanaging it to the point that the public lost faith in the democratic process within a year.

The article you posted is a pretty one-sided account of things. Of course Morsi is going to issue orders to the military because, under the 2012 constitution, he was the supreme commander of the armed forces. (the 2011 constitution doesn't prescribe civilian authority over the military.) The Brotherhood has a history of cutting deals with the military to ensure its own political gains- look at how it cooperated with Nasser against the Egyptian communists, and with Sadat after having been led to believe that he was the "believer President." After the 2011 revolution, the Brotherhood cut deals with SCAF to embrace their transition plan in exchange for condemning the secular groups like April 6 that were continuing to protest against the military's continual hold on the country's political and economic system.

And no, anti-Morsi protests started shortly after he took office, although I'll concede that it's unlikely that the military/intel/police agencies orchestrated those ones.

Here's a flashback to 2012: Morsi was never the preferred candidate of the Brotherhood. That was Khairat al-Shater, who, as a wealthy man himself, knew the interplay of Egypt's various institutions and economic pillars, and how they intersected with those of the military. He was disqualified because his mother held American citizenship, and Morsi was put forth in his stead. Even the Brothers referred to Morsi as the "spare tire." If you want to go down the slightly conspiratorial route, it's obvious that Morsi's fecklessness and ineptitude made him more palatable to the military because they knew that he would gently caress up. The security establishment and the rest of the felool (leftovers/remnants) had a vested interest in seeing the Brotherhood fail and fail spectacularly at that, so it's not inconceivable that they would create the conditions under which the Brotherhood could finally win national office and impede anything they tried to do. Mubarak's institutions- the police forces, the military, the judiciary- had never been reformed or examined in the wake of the 2011 revolution, so the fact that they would obstruct their historical foe seems like a given. Even the secular revolutionaries pointed at the presence of the felool as part of Morsi's failed promises to reform, and while that term was used as a pejorative then, it's drat near an honorific now. A friend of mine in Cairo has an Egyptian judge as a roommate, and he openly calls himself felool in public to smiles when that same term would have gotten his teeth kicked in two years ago.

It's indisputable that Morsi was a lovely president, but it has to be acknowledged that nearly all of the political institutions he was supposed to govern over were populated with enemies of him and his political party. He failed not only because he was an inept leader, but also because elements of the government he supposedly managed actively conspired against him. The article I posted earlier demonstrates how the military astroturfed Tamarod into serving their own interests, so what I've laid out above really isn't that implausible.

Homura and Sickle
Apr 21, 2013

Sergg posted:

What's happening in Iraq right now? Last I heard, poo poo was really hitting the fan that more and more towns were falling to the ISIS onslaught and more and more Sunni tribes were defecting to the rebel side.

That's basically still the status quo, except there are national elections tomorrow so expect a whole lot of people to die.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/29/world/middleeast/iraq-prepares-for-national-elections-in-the-shadow-of-militant-threats.html

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

Ham posted:

And it's hilarious that you'd post that article.

I think that it's hilarious that an article by the AP's Cairo bureau chief, who's worked in the Middle East for 15 years, gets dismissed out of hand as being biased and ignorant. So I'm glad that we both find this so funny.

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Kaal posted:

I think that it's hilarious that an article by the AP's Cairo bureau chief, who's worked in the Middle East for 15 years, gets dismissed out of hand as being biased and ignorant. So I'm glad that we both find this so funny.

His sources were the people who just did a coup! I don't care if he's the literal personification of the base concept of journalistic truth those are some bad sources!

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

Tatum Girlparts posted:

His sources were the people who just did a coup! I don't care if he's the literal personification of the base concept of journalistic truth those are some bad sources!

AP posted:

Along with the Brotherhood official, eight current senior officials in the military, military intelligence and Interior Ministry — including a top army commander and an officer from el-Sissi's inner circle — spoke to AP on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the events between Morsi and the military.

It seems to me that if you want to hear about how the events unfolded, these are exactly the people you'd want to talk to. It's an array of representatives from the different political branches. They're people who'd actually have primary insight into the relationship between Morsi and Sissi. And Hendawi quotes the Brotherhood official as often as anyone else.

Kaal fucked around with this message at 01:50 on Apr 30, 2014

Mc Do Well
Aug 2, 2008

by FactsAreUseless

Ham posted:

You still haven't posted anything furthering Morsi islamizing the country and it being a concern for the military.

Actors inside and outside Egypt must have been looking at Turkey and '1984' as an example (Erdogan was pretty spooked by the Cairo coup). There's a need for 'global' countries to have a face of modernity (unless they are KSA and have enough money to disregard all standards of conduct). The appearance of stasis, youthful hipness, and growth must be sustained, no matter what any kind of reason or radical action would move toward (Gaza should be annexed by Egypt).

Did Netanyahu and Morsi ever acknowledge and engage one another? I don't think the Egypt military wanted to be a belligerent against Sudan. Now it's the old game of playing the Americans and the Russians against one another.

Gen. Ripper
Jan 12, 2013


Tatum Girlparts posted:

His sources were the people who just did a coup! I don't care if he's the literal personification of the base concept of journalistic truth those are some bad sources!

See the Seymour Hersh debacle. If someone has enough important sounding titles/prizes/whatever people will believe anything they say even if it's "the sky is purple and made from the skin of multicolored unicorns".

Sucrose
Dec 9, 2009
This is, uh, kinda good news I guess? The chairman of the US foreign aid subcommittee says he's going to block US financial aid to Egypt over the recent mass death sentences.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/29/us-aid-egypt-patrick-leahy-sham-tria

Course this could all be for show and they're just gonna resupply it when the Egyptian courts commute most of these sentences.

Bait and Swatch
Sep 5, 2012

Join me, Comrades
In the Star Citizen D&D thread

Jagchosis posted:

That's basically still the status quo, except there are national elections tomorrow so expect a whole lot of people to die.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/29/world/middleeast/iraq-prepares-for-national-elections-in-the-shadow-of-militant-threats.html

I am hoping not, but am expecting the worst. ISIS has distributed leaflets all over the place warning that anyone at the polling centers is a target. It has also been unusually quiet the past few days. It's the same as in past years, but the scale seems to be broader than past elections. The country seems to be holding its collective breath regarding attacks by ISIS and the amount of support Maliki receives.

I am not expecting to many attacks because of the extensive security restrictions. The real potential for destabilizing violence comes after when they are trying to get the parliamentary majority needed to elect the Prime Minister.

Also, there was an attack on a polling station a few days ago, but locals say the attackers had Iraqi Army uniforms. Could have been a false-flag, but that goes along with the Iraqi joke about the premier terrorist must be a seamstress given how many Daash members seem to have military uniforms.

I really need to find time to make an Iraqi elections thread tomorrow.

Radio Prune
Feb 19, 2010
ISIS do seem to have quite a few uniforms laying around, if their Iraq videos are anything to go by.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Sucrose posted:

This is, uh, kinda good news I guess? The chairman of the US foreign aid subcommittee says he's going to block US financial aid to Egypt over the recent mass death sentences.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/29/us-aid-egypt-patrick-leahy-sham-tria

Course this could all be for show and they're just gonna resupply it when the Egyptian courts commute most of these sentences.
They pulled the funding for awhile when things got ugly, but then started it up again. It seems like this will just be a repeat.

Sucrose
Dec 9, 2009

FlamingLiberal posted:

They pulled the funding for awhile when things got ugly, but then started it up again. It seems like this will just be a repeat.

Yeah, that's what I figure, but figured it was worth posting about.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

There was another chemical attack reported last night, in the village of Al-Tamanah (more videos here)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQSJ9vLL-B0

More information is available on this Facebook page. I found out last night some of the doctors treating the victims of these attacks and activists taking samples for the Telegraph report were part of a training programme I helped arrange back in October 2013. Thanks to the training the samples taken were done in such a way that the chain of custody was preserved, meaning the samples can be passed onto the OPCW with evidence supporting they are genuine samples, which is very important.

Svartvit
Jun 18, 2005

al-Qabila samaa Bahth

Kaal posted:

It seems to me that if you want to hear about how the events unfolded, these are exactly the people you'd want to talk to. It's an array of representatives from the different political branches. They're people who'd actually have primary insight into the relationship between Morsi and Sissi. And Hendawi quotes the Brotherhood official as often as anyone else.

What? How does anything you say corroborate what you wrote? What are you even talking about?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

I've put more details of today's new chemical attack on the blog. I think there's now been about a dozen chemical barrel bomb attacks in the last 3 weeks, in an area that's about 50km across, on the towns of Kafr Zita, Al-Tamanah, Telmenes, and Atmah, and there's videos from pretty much all of them from what I can see. I've been told that various governments (including the UK) are being extremely supportive of the OPCW's planned investigations into the attacks, and The Telegraph's sampling meets their standards of evidence so that'll be part of it.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Interesting piece on the Southern Front

quote:

Syrian rebels announce creation of unified Southern Front

Rebels in southern Syria say they've united tens of thousands of fighters and rejected the extremism and infighting that have plagued the uprising elsewhere, but still want for external support.

The so-called Southern Front was created around two months ago and includes some 30,000 fighters from more than 55 mainstream rebel groups operating from the Jordanian border to the outskirts of Damascus and the Golan Heights, the rebels say.

The new alliance is in part aimed at alleviating Western concerns that providing greater aid to the fractious rebels would bolster Al-Qaeda-inspired groups and see heavy weapons fall into the hands of extremists.

"The objective is to unify fragmented factions to topple the regime of (President Bashar) al-Assad and work on creating a democratic state that would preserve the rights of all segments and minorities," Ibrahim al-Jabawi, a former police brigadier general turned spokesman for the alliance, told AFP in Amman.

"These factions have led significant battles against Assad's forces and achieved victories," notably in the Golan city of Quneitra near the disputed frontier with Israel and in the southern city of Daraa, where the uprising began in March 2011, Jabawi said.

"In recent days for example, fighters from more than 16 factions liberated a strategic position that belonged to Brigade 61," a Syrian army brigade responsible for guarding the Golan frontier, he said.

Abu al-Majd, a spokesman for the Yarmouk Brigade, one of the more powerful members of the alliance, said the front had been active since the failure of Geneva peace talks earlier this year.

Saudi Arabia, one of the main backers of the uprising against Assad, has strong influence over rebels in the south, where it has worked with Jordan to help unify the various factions, according to Syrian opposition sources.

Jabawi and others insist their alliance has no place for the Nusra Front, the Syrian wing of Al-Qaeda, or the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), a rogue jihadi group that has been battling other rebels in the north since the start of the year.

"Division does not lead to positive results. That is why we worked to unify moderate factions under one umbrella," Jabawi told AFP.

"Nusra, which has limited influence in the south, does not have any role in the southern front," he said, adding that other Islamist groups in the south "are limited and not developing."

Since early January, ISIS has been at war with the Nusra Front and other Islamist and moderate rebel groups, which accuse it of kidnapping, torturing and killing activists and rebels opposed to its strict version of Islamic governance.

"We do not want the situation of south to reach the situation of the north," said Abu al-Majd.

In a bid to prevent the infighting that has plagued the rebels since the start of the uprising, the southern alliance says it has established a court in Daraa's central prison to resolve disputes.

"When there is a problem between (rebel) groups, they can go to the court to solve it. We have judges and lawyers who are working there. We are recruiting even guards and other employees," Abu al-Majd said.

"At the same place we are planning to build a big hospital."

Despite projecting an image of unity, moderation and discipline, rebels in the south argue that they have not received the kind of heavy weapons needed to tip the balance against Assad's army.

And Abu al-Majd said the government troops based in the south are more formidable than in other parts of the country.

"The regime keeps one of the most important concentration of forces in the south. It is not easy to move around..." he said.

"We have enough light weapons but we need weapons that would help us deal with air strikes and tanks," Jabawi said.

"We hope that Syria's friends would help us and provide us with such weapons, particularly anti-aircraft guns... to help liberate all southern parts until we reach Damascus."

At least 20 US-made TOW anti-tank missiles have been supplied to a moderate rebel group fighting in the north by a "Western source" as part of a pilot program, a rebel official told AFP earlier this month.

But it's unclear whether similar plans are in the works for the south, and such weapons would be of little use against Assad's air force, which has been employed to devastating effect against the rebels.

Abu Hafs, a fighter from the Martyrs of Huran Brigade, said rebels in the south suffer from shortages of even non-lethal aid.

"We do not have enough hospitals and the ones we have lack basic things," he told AFP in the northern Jordanian city of Irbid.
Among a lot of people I speak to who follow the conflict closely there's a belief the west and their allies have started to really focus on the idea of creating a moderate, strong, opposition military, even going to the length of ensuring allies cut off aid from Islamist groups they've previously supported. Recent events in the Supreme Military Council of the FSA were also very interesting; the former leader Salim Idriss was usurped by the leadership of the Syrian Revolutionaries Front, who had a bad reputation for being craven looters who just showed up to battles to get photos to convince their backers they were doing something. Recently, it's been reported the SRF have tried to fix that reputation so they can start to receive serious support. Interestingly, shortly before Salim Idriss got kicked out he formed the Hazzm Movement, which was meant to be a new moderate force, and has received this TOW missiles in the north. The Southern Front is the Syrian Revolutionaries Front's own "moderate" project, and there's some evidence they've also been receiving TOW missiles, but that's been largely overlooked.

So we now have a situation where there's two "moderate" projects being run, both of which appear to be receiving foreign arms. I guess it's good to have a spare in case one fails, and they are at different ends of the country too.

BabyChoom
Jan 7, 2014

by XyloJW
I personally wouldn't trust any group funded by Saudi Arabia. Some say that before the civil war the people in Syria had more freedom then people in Saudi Arabia. Especially women and minorities.

It is also rather suspicious that these rebels would attack and replace Syrian government units that where tied down defending the Golan area. Are they now going to defend the area from Israeli hostility or do they have a sweet heart deal with the Israeli government?

pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

:tinfoil: The Southern Front are actually going to be security guards for the soon-to-be-announced Israeli settlements in what used to be the Syrian controlled part of the Golan Heights! :tinfoil:

cafel
Mar 29, 2010

This post is hurting the economy!

suboptimal posted:

:tinfoil: The Southern Front are actually going to be security guards for the soon-to-be-announced Israeli settlements in what used to be the Syrian controlled part of the Golan Heights! :tinfoil:

How else were the rebels going to get helicopters to use in the chlorine false flag attacks? C'mon bro, the threads are all there.

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BabyChoom
Jan 7, 2014

by XyloJW

suboptimal posted:

:tinfoil: The Southern Front are actually going to be security guards for the soon-to-be-announced Israeli settlements in what used to be the Syrian controlled part of the Golan Heights! :tinfoil:

Yeah I think you don't get what I'm trying to say or are just twisting it to troll me. What I was that it is rather queer that rebels would attack units that are tied down facing another entity that is hostile to every Syrian citizen. Those units aren't really in the fight. So why attack them and then tie up your own man power in order to guard against Israeli aggression?

Now we have heard that some rebel support has been provided by Israel so there are questions that need to be answered about the strategic moves made in the Syrian south.

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