|
Super Aggro Crag posted:I actually like the Special Idol. Maybe I just like it because Tony has it and he can ball out like Michael Jordan on the court. Very entertaining season. Now imagine if Kass found it.
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 17:17
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 28, 2024 12:18 |
|
|
Watching Kass get goat-dragged to the Final 3, cut to shreds by the jury, and recieve no votes is going to be wonderful.
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 17:21
|
|
|
Assuming that it's a final three, Tony is going to be part of the final four unless he somehow manages to play an HII wrong. The next two TCs are the last two chances for him to play them, so there is no reason not to do it. He has two problems right now. The first problem is that he has done a pretty good job of poisoning the jury against him. Sarah and Morgan definitely seem to be against him. I also don't think LJ and Jefra will be voting for him to win anymore, although LJ might be willing to see his elimination as a good play. Only Jeremiah might not hold a grudge since he was in the minority alliance when voted out. His second problem is who does he send to the jury at the next two TCs. If he sends Kass/Trish he runs the risk of completely poisoning the jury. Plus I think Spencer/Tasha get the votes over him anyway. If he sends Spencer/Tasha to the jury he probably gets the votes at FTC, but then Kass/Trish might try to vote him out at the final four if he doesn't win immunity. Woo is the real wildcard at this point and I'm not sure where he is sitting. He seems to be firmly with Tony but he has shown willingness to make some moves. And I think his only shot to win is to be sitting next to Kass/Trish at the FTC.
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 17:25
|
|
|
TMMadman posted:Assuming that it's a final three, Tony is going to be part of the final four unless he somehow manages to play an HII wrong. The next two TCs are the last two chances for him to play them, so there is no reason not to do it. I wonder what would cause more of a shitstorm, Tony using the Tyler Perry idol in the next tribal or the one after that (since no one knows he has the TP one, just the normal): Next TC People pretend to still be on Tony's side and go along with whatever plan he has. Then, at TC, they vote for Tony, Jeff asks whether anyone is going to play their HII, and Tony sits there unmoving, blinking. People look smug because they think they've fooled him and "successfully" blindsided him. Jeff reads the votes, Tony stands up as though to bring Jeff his torch, but then turns around and produces his Tyler Perry idol and gobsmacks everyone. And then later they cry because they realize he still has a normal idol to play, too. OR After Tony uses his normal HII at the next TC no matter what (because he'd be dumb not to do so, considering he has two), people think he's vulnerable and can now be picked off in the following one. Then same thing happens: they all vote for him, they look smug about their success, and then after reading the votes, Tony hands over the TI idol and everyone is like WTF! 
Midrena fucked around with this message at 17:44 on May 1, 2014 |
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 17:42
|
|
|
Midrena posted:I wonder what would cause more of a shitstorm, Tony using the Tyler Perry idol in the next tribal or the one after that: Either option will be fantastic as a viewer. But I think the first option is the best one from Tony's perspective, because if they don't end up voting for him, he can give his regular idol to somebody at the next council and be safe with the TPI, potentially gaining goodwill and saving an ally if the rest have ganged up on him.
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 17:44
|
|
|
If they're going to make the super idol, they should have hidden the power and the idol separately. I.e. if you find both parts then you have a super idol, but if you only find the power and not the idol then you have nothing. Really don't like the way it is now.
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 17:47
|
|
|
At this point I'm rooting for Tony to overplay the hell out of the situation. Something weird like Spencer wins immunity, Tony gives Tasha his regular idol to blindside someone totally benign like Trish or Woo.
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 17:47
|
|
|
The best scenario would be if -- knowing he has an idol -- everyone else successfully engineers a vote split against Tony, he plays the regular idol, and then haha oops, revotes also lock out the Stupid Idol from being played and he goes home with the Stupid Idol in his pocket. gently caress that idol, basically.
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 17:47
|
|
|
CapnAndy posted:The best scenario would be if -- knowing he has an idol -- everyone else successfully engineers a vote split against Tony, he plays the regular idol, and then haha oops, revotes also lock out the Stupid Idol from being played and he goes home with the Stupid Idol in his pocket. What?
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 18:17
|
|
|
xbilkis posted:I didn't really think the Tony-as-Russell comparisons were really valid, and I still think he has a much better chance of winning than Russell ever did, but he really pushed his luck in this episode. If he had just gotten rid of LJ and cruised it would have kind have been a masterstroke, and saying 'I got rid of the biggest threat in my alliance by voting against half of my alliance without anyone caring' would have been a pretty good jury argument. Now, though, he's probably lost Jefra (and Trish if she ends up on the jury). Plus, people who would consider voting for Tony for his gameplay would probably give Tasha and Spencer some consideration, so you don't want to prolong their shot at making the finals. The way I see it, if everyone is fed up with him, the way to go is to vote split, half on Tony and half on Woo. But wait, who wants a 2-2-2 tie? Well, that's why you sucker Woo in too, tell him everyone's totally done with Tony and it's time for him to leave Tony too if he wants to survive. That way the vote is 3 (tony) 2 (woo) 1 (whoever Tony targets)
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 18:44
|
|
|
Reenacting Cirie's legendary 3-2-1 play. 
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 18:57
|
|
|
Adjunct Cheesecake posted:She also could have very easily told Sarah what Sarah wanted to hear (Sarah made it quite obvious what she wanted from the competing alliances) and still been in an alliance where she wasn't at the bottom and been in a much better situation than she is currently, where the person in charge of the alliance didn't let her in on what was going on for two separate TCs. Yeah, being in that majority alliance sure worked out well for LJ and Jefra!
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 19:07
|
|
|
JakeP posted:What? There is no best case 
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 20:07
|
|
|
CapnAndy posted:The best scenario would be if -- knowing he has an idol -- everyone else successfully engineers a vote split against Tony, he plays the regular idol, and then haha oops, revotes also lock out the Stupid Idol from being played and he goes home with the Stupid Idol in his pocket. This is one of the stupidest things I've read in a survivor thread. Why would they revote if he played the normal idol and how could he go home after playing an idol on himself?
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 20:08
|
|
|
I dislike the super idol, but it does allow Tony to be in a position that is new to the game. He is rightfully confident. He can make all the threats he wants. There is no such thing as over confidence for him. He is in the top 4. It's absolutely terrible for the game, but giving a really watchable and interesting person all that power makes for pretty great television.
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 20:42
|
|
|
Tony can cruise the rest of the way and get to final tribal council. Unless I'm missing something, there's no way get around having the regular HII and the superpowered one. I like the idea of him getting his closest ally to get everyone to vote against him, with his sole vote going against his closest ally and then playing the HII to blindside them out. In essence, have someone voted out with only a single vote. Then playing the stupid overpowered idol at the last available opportunity. e: or would that even work Tide fucked around with this message at 20:48 on May 1, 2014 |
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 20:45
|
|
|
Final Four is when Tony is completely vulnerable and likely gone he has to win that immunity. I doubt anyone is gonna take him as a goat he's too dangerous with multiple big moves under his belt Russel's bitter jury could be an isolated event Tony's more hyper less vindictive. We could end up with any combination of players in the final three. Alliances are basically moot at this point. Woo could ride Tony's coatails to final four cut Tony loose and then point out he was part of every big move that took place. Really Kass and Trish are the only ones with a bad jury arguement Tony/Woo pulled the wool over their eyes with LJ and then did it again with Jefra hard for either of them to make any strategic arguements after that. I think Spencer or Woo is most likely to win, Tony's got too much of a final four target on his back(wins that immunity he wins the game) and Tasha's edit has been so lukewarm Tasha's lack of an edit is the only reason im ranking her fourth out of the four.
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 21:11
|
|
|
I don't think Woo is respected much by people. It's going to be either Tony or one of Spencer/Tasha.
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 21:49
|
|
|
blue squares posted:I don't think Woo is respected much by people. It's going to be either Tony or one of Spencer/Tasha. Woo has a chance to slide into a Fabio-like win. He isn't respected but he's reasonably well liked and has a shot sitting next to Tony and Kass. Tony still probably wins that, but it's not entirely unthinkable he wins being the one left the jury doesn't hate.
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 21:53
|
|
|
I feel like Woo's chances depend entirely on how the jury feels about Tony. It's been made clear on the show that the other players think of him as riding Tony's coattails/doing whatever he says. That's not necessarily his death knell, but if there is an anti-Tony sentiment among the jury then I don't think he can win.
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 22:28
|
|
|
I would be really surprised if Woo won. Almost any conceivable final 3 scenario he's in has either Tony, Tasha or Spencer in it, all of whom are far more deserving (and better public speakers). But then hey, weirder things have happened.. edit: if we get a Woo, Trish, Kass final 3……. *shudder*
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 22:44
|
|
|
Murmur Twin posted:Yeah, being in that majority alliance sure worked out well for LJ and Jefra! So your argument is literally she shouldn't have been like those guys in Tonys alliance and distinguished herself by flipping over to Tonys alliance as the clear bottom Also there's no way that Kass was anything besides in a solid final three or maybe, MAYBE number four (and that's super loving uncertain) when she flipped Also even if she was at the bottom of her firsts alliance, which she wasn't, but for the sake of argument she was at the very bottom her flip changed her chances of winning (in reality it was a decent chance of winning) from a thereotical low percent chance of winning to a 0% chance of winning NieR Occomata fucked around with this message at 23:13 on May 1, 2014 |
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 23:07
|
|
|
A sufficiently bitter jury faced with Tony/Woo/Kass could throw it to Woo, but I tend to believe the Brains alliance when they said that they're all voting Tony if it comes to that.
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 23:09
|
|
|
It would be such bullshit if Woo won. He seems like a really swell guy, but he in no way deserves to win.
|
|
|
#
?
May 1, 2014 23:48
|
|
|
His biggest contribution in the game seems to be wearing toe shoes, which helped him dominate that one challenge.
|
|
#
?
May 2, 2014 00:03
|
|
|
Every season needs a Woo.
|
|
#
?
May 2, 2014 00:18
|
|
|
Woo's a nice guy, but he's played the worst game of the remaining six. He was completely blindsided by the Cliff vote, reacted by just really hoping Tony and Trish would let him in their alliance, and has followed everything Tony says including the blatant lies ("LJ wants you out") and the nonsensical theories ("the girls are going to band together and vote us out before Tasha"). He even called Tony's thinking "genius."
|
|
#
?
May 2, 2014 00:45
|
|
|
Yeah, the only way I can see Woo winning is a super bitty jury and Tony/Kass/Woo as the final three. Trish at least has some gameplay going, and Spencer and Tasha both have really good stories/moves.
|
|
#
?
May 2, 2014 00:53
|
|
|
"How ya feeling Woo?" "Woo!"
|
|
#
?
May 2, 2014 01:01
|
|
|
If Woo manages to oust Tony he might have a shot. When was the last time an obvious #2 did this instead of being DOA in the final tribal council?
|
|
#
?
May 2, 2014 01:02
|
|
|
Yeah, Woo has two plausible routes to winning I think. One, the jury is super bitter against Tony (and Kass is the third person there, probably). Or, he could make a move to vote out Tony before the finals, in which case I think he has a pretty good "gameplay" argument even if he goes against Tasha and/or Spencer; he was in the majority the entire time but he's not the "hated one", and he made the move to get rid of the mastermind. In either scenario, he could garner votes just because people like him. I'm dreading a scenario where Trish makes the finals and gets 0-1 votes because she's a weak older lady and kind of a weirdo, because I really think she's had one of the stronger games this season. Every passing week makes it even more bizarre (and hilarious) that she had that gigantic blow-up with Lindsey. UltimoDragonQuest posted:When was the last time an obvious #2 did this instead of being DOA in the final tribal council? It's more of a 1a/1b thing and it was a pretty easy call considering the circumstances, but Malcolm and Denise both turned on each other rather than trying to force a tie at the final four. Who knows if they would have done the same if one of them won immunity, though. I think Stephen would have done that to J.T. if it weren't for immunity getting in the way. It surprisingly doesn't come up that much, which kind of makes sense. If you're out there for 39 days and you're tight enough with someone to be the "clear #2" in their alliance, you probably don't see yourself as the clear #2. With people like Gervase or Dawn or Sabrina/Chelsea in recent seasons, they probably see their work as a lot more collaborative than other people perceive it. I think they kind of have a case, too, although they should probably know better than to think other people would see it that way. It also doesn't help that none of them had a chance to vote out the eventual winner from the final five on. Making a move against your closest ally just because they're a jury threat when there are still 6 people left in the game is pretty risky. xbilkis fucked around with this message at 01:37 on May 2, 2014 |
|
#
?
May 2, 2014 01:20
|
|
|
The people on Tony's tribe don't seem bitter when they get voted out, but who knows how they'll be feeling come final tribal council. I guess Sarah probably won't vote for him but LJ and Jefra didn't seem bitter to me. They might feel like Spencer or Tasha have the underdog thing going for them. I'm sure seeing Tasha there three tribals in a row with individual immunity is impressive. Tasha also really deserves props for her "make it look like there's a girls alliance by just hanging out with the girls a lot and shooting the poo poo with them." From the way it was edited it seemed like Spencer and Tasha both had the same idea independently of each other and then accidentally executed it well? It's also pretty funny that at the beginning of the season, Tasha and Spencer's tribe was insanely terrible at challenges and they didn't demonstrate much ability either but in the individual challenges it really is a different game. I think if I were on this season I would have flipped out over that steak sandwich at the auction. The other stuff looked decent to great (though the popcorn and candy would probably just make me sick to my stomach) but a steak sandwich is what I pray for when I'm starving. I agree Trish is actually playing a pretty decent game but she doesn't seem to be playing hard enough to win. Unless Tony starts to really piss people off or she ends up in the final three with Spencer and Tasha and the jury kinda splits their votes for them but her alliance votes mostly for her.
|
|
#
?
May 2, 2014 03:01
|
|
|
One important thing to note is that close allies turning on each other (or finding clever ways to avoid explicitly turning on each other while still doing so) was much more common when there was a Final 2. Psychologically, it seemed much harder to actually make it to the Final Tribal with only 2 slots, and close allies were pretty much expected to turn on each other at the endgame in order to make it to the finals. Certainly you never saw the big, happy, comfy 3-person alliance that's so common in the current metagame (Tyson/Monica/Gervase, Kim/Sab/Chel, Coach/Sophie/Albert, etc. etc.). ETA: It's also much harder to coordinate a good Final 3 if you're the non-leader of a majority alliance. If you're in the majority alliance and want to vote out your leader, your only chance of winning is to find two other allies also willing to vote out your leader. Otherwise, you either have to go to the end with the minority alliance (and lose to a bitter jury) or go to the end with an ally who didn't participate in the mutiny (and run the risk of that charismatic leader poisoning the jury against you in favor of the other guy). So now you need 3 people to all simultaneously agree to flip to get out the leader, and even then that leaves no wiggle room for an accidental immunity win by anyone else at Final 4-- so in reality, the only way people can get comfortable enough to flip on their leader is if the entire alliance is on board (see James's boot in China). mancalamania fucked around with this message at 03:09 on May 2, 2014 |
|
#
?
May 2, 2014 03:02
|
|
|
Adjunct Cheesecake posted:She (Kass) also could have very easily told Sarah what Sarah wanted to hear (Sarah made it quite obvious what she wanted from the competing alliances) and still been in an alliance where she wasn't at the bottom and been in a much better situation than she is currently, where the person in charge of the alliance didn't let her in on what was going on for two separate TCs. When the person in charge of the alliance doesn't let you in on what was going on for two separate TCs... ...you're not actually in the alliance. Wonder if Kass and Trish will figure this out.
|
|
#
?
May 2, 2014 03:16
|
|
|
If Woo can get rid of Tony at final four he can make the exact same jury case Parvarti did in HVV and that arguement would have worked if she hadn't been sitting next to Sandra. Now whether he realizes that or can state his case as well as Parv did remains to be seen.
|
|
#
?
May 2, 2014 04:49
|
|
|
Poque posted:Every season needs Woo. I fixed that for you. I hope Woo comes back a few times. He's really fun to watch on survivor.
|
|
#
?
May 2, 2014 04:55
|
|
|
Wren610 posted:If Woo can get rid of Tony at final four he can make the exact same jury case Parvarti did in HVV and that arguement would have worked if she hadn't been sitting next to Sandra. Now whether he realizes that or can state his case as well as Parv did remains to be seen. Of all the things Woo is, 'smart' and 'articulate' are not two of them. He's got charisma (maybe) and not much else.
|
|
#
?
May 2, 2014 05:13
|
|
|
Also, though, Parv controlled that game far more than Woo has. In fact, her brilliant double idol play (without Russell's knowledge) made him flip his poo poo. There was no reason Parv shouldn't have won that season except "Sandra made it to the finals and we really hate Russell"
|
|
#
?
May 2, 2014 06:30
|
|
|
CapnAndy posted:The best scenario would be if -- knowing he has an idol -- everyone else successfully engineers a vote split against Tony, he plays the regular idol, and then haha oops, revotes also lock out the Stupid Idol from being played and he goes home with the Stupid Idol in his pocket. If they managed to get two votes for tony and then everyone else voted for someone else they could force a revote, and if that idol wasn't good for that they could vote him out. But I don't know if it works like that. Also they would have to know what it does and I don't think they do at this point.
|
|
#
?
May 2, 2014 06:36
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 28, 2024 12:18 |
|
|
I think there's a very real reason to vote out Jeffra here. If they vote out spencer and Tasha wins the next immunity, what's the landscape for Tony? Obviously he can pop idols till final 4, but that, at BEST, puts him as woo + him vs two of the girls, and if one of them is Tasha, then she'll probably win immunity and he's the easiest vote out at that point. Jeffra is guaranteed to align against him no matter what -- Trish might stick with him to the end because she wants to get out Tash and spence more than him no matter what he does. But if Tasha goes on an immunity run, then his best shot is to keep Spencer around. Neither Spencer nor Tasha want to sit next to each other in the end -- their stories are really good, but really similar, and only one of them can win immunity at final 4. Both probably want Tony more than each other at the final 3. I can't say that for any other final 4 combination that has Tony and Woo after they vote out Spencer. Tony and Woo vs Tasha and Kass? Tony's gone. Tony and Woo vs Tasha and Jeffra? Tony's gone. T&W vs Tasha and Trish? Tony's gone. Inverse Tasha with Spencer and it's the same way, the only difference is Tasha won immunity this week. This obviously assumes that no one besides one of the brains wins the challenges from here on out, but I think that's a really likely occurrence. Tony's best path to win is if they vote out Spencer then Tasha loses next week and they vote her out. Then he can take out Jeffra (who will always vote against him in the final 4) with woo + his idols when Kass, Trish, and Jeffra turn on him (that final 5 most definitely wants Tony gone) -- I'm not even sure Woo is 100% solid with Tony at this point, but we've seen so little of his strategy that it's hard to tell. But even think of that, would Woo stick to him if the final 4 is Woo, Tony, Trish, Kass? Isn't woo's best shot taking Trish and Kass, especially if he wins immunity? Even this scenario is less likely to take Tony to the final 3 than Tony + Woo + Tasha + Spencer. Atleast in this final 4, Woo probably doesn't want to sit next to Spencer or Tasha, either. Tony's best final 3 is him + Kass + Woo but I don't see that happening. Any final 4 that has Kass + Woo + anyone else is bad news for Tony. If it's Tasha or Spence, they probably win the challenge. If it's Jefra or Trish, Woo is most likely to win (MAYBE Tony could beat Woo) but he's guaranteed to be voted out in that scenario. When you haven't won a single immunity, or even been very close, you can't just assume you'll win in the final 4 so it's reasonable to make a final 4 that doesn't vote you out when you have as much power as he does. Maybe I'm overthinking it, and maybe that's what Tony did, but I honestly see him in a really tough spot. This all goes back to his voting out of LJ and turning his alliance against him -- but we mostly agreed that was a solid move as LJ had a strong voting block and would've beat anyone in the finals, as well as a solid chance in immunity challenges. Two Tone Shoes fucked around with this message at 06:44 on May 2, 2014 |
|
#
?
May 2, 2014 06:41
|
|
