|
Apparently Russia and China have just signed a massive gas deal.
|
# ? May 21, 2014 21:59 |
|
|
# ? May 6, 2024 03:07 |
|
Medvedev posted:“One side always wants to sell for a higher price, while the other wants to buy for a lower price,” Medvedev said. “I believe that in the long run, the price will be fair and totally comparable to the price of European supplies.” Ouch. You can tell the Russians ended up with a lower unit price than they would have liked. The BBC was saying that China is pretty much the only customer for Russia's Siberian gas reserves.
|
# ? May 22, 2014 08:46 |
|
The Chinese had the Russians by the balls and likely knew it, hence the apparent twisting of said balls.
|
# ? May 22, 2014 08:50 |
|
Fojar38 posted:The Chinese had the Russians by the balls and likely knew it, hence the apparent twisting of said balls. The price is slightly higher than what China pays for -stan gas but lower than what Russia receives from Europe. Russia was trying to push this deal through as fast as possible because the Kremlin was probably getting a bit nervous about the future relationship with the EU.
|
# ? May 22, 2014 22:08 |
|
blueyedevil posted:The price is slightly higher than what China pays for -stan gas but lower than what Russia receives from Europe. Russia was trying to push this deal through as fast as possible because the Kremlin was probably getting a bit nervous about the future relationship with the EU. Yeah, it is a compromise, but I don't know if I would call it China twisting "Russia's" balls. The number I heard is around $350 per TCM which is still profitable for the Russians. For clarification, Russia was selling Ukraine gas as around $286 per TCM (which they had to buy).
|
# ? May 22, 2014 22:13 |
|
China must have negotiated a decent price. Tsar Putin got China to back them up on the Ukraine issue and Russia didn't say anything about Diaoyu Island/South China sea.
|
# ? May 23, 2014 03:44 |
|
Ardennes posted:Yeah, it is a compromise, but I don't know if I would call it China twisting "Russia's" balls. The number I heard is around $350 per TCM which is still profitable for the Russians. For clarification, Russia was selling Ukraine gas as around $286 per TCM (which they had to buy). El Mundo is reporting $359/TCM (263 euros at today's conversion rate) via Bloomberg's calculations, compared to the $379/TCM that Europe pays to Moscow
|
# ? May 23, 2014 04:39 |
|
Did the Chinese actually say that they unequivocally support the Russian position on Ukraine? I hadn't heard about that and sounds like a pretty stark reversal from their neutrality.
|
# ? May 23, 2014 04:47 |
|
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/05/26/tycoon-sees-titanic-moment-for-chinas-housing-market/quote:China’s once buoyant property market is facing some rough sailing. In fact, according to one tycoon – Soho China Ltd0410.HK -0.32%’s chief Pan Shiyi — the real estate market is looking more like the Titanic headed in the direction of an iceberg.
|
# ? May 26, 2014 16:42 |
|
Cultural Imperial posted:http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/05/26/tycoon-sees-titanic-moment-for-chinas-housing-market/ Putting that little share price change tag next to the guy's company name doesn't do much for his credibility though.
|
# ? May 26, 2014 21:28 |
|
Fangz posted:Putting that little share price change tag next to the guy's company name doesn't do much for his credibility though. That was probably a copy paste from the original, listing the ticker and stock price of the company mentioned in an online article is pretty common.
|
# ? May 26, 2014 21:51 |
|
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cf5e...l#axzz32n7JGMqGquote:
I find it hilarious that anti-corruption crack downs are affecting negative growth.
|
# ? May 27, 2014 06:08 |
|
I like how they use the Titanic metaphor to say they "are about to" hit an iceberg (and could somehow avoid it?) One more gets the impression that they've already ran straight over the iceberg, circled around, and hit it again.
|
# ? May 27, 2014 06:28 |
|
blueyedevil posted:The price is slightly higher than what China pays for -stan gas but lower than what Russia receives from Europe. Russia was trying to push this deal through as fast as possible because the Kremlin was probably getting a bit nervous about the future relationship with the EU. Yeah given their dependence on energy exports it made sense to hedge their bets against future troubles with the EU/USA over Ukraine.
|
# ? May 27, 2014 18:00 |
|
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/06/01/china-in-deflationary-spiral-new-stimulus-looks-ineffective/quote:The latest price data for China shows the economy has entered a period of deflation, a situation sharply at odds with the official claim of growth in the high single digits. Robust growth, especially over long periods of time, is almost always associated with high inflation.
|
# ? Jun 1, 2014 20:31 |
|
As far as Chinese GDP and GDP growth, it is pretty difficult to believe official figures since they are so politicized. China could very well be in a recession now and it wouldn't ever show up.
|
# ? Jun 1, 2014 22:53 |
|
So based on this thread the Chinese property market has been experiencing a massive bubble that is now popping, sending ripples through the extensive shadow banking system and possibly triggering a deflationary spiral. If history is any guide then this would indicate a period of serious pain for the Chinese economy. On the other hand China's development is still driven by exports rather than domestic consumption like in the United States. So what happens to all those export oriented factories? Are they taken down by a collapse in the credit system? Or can they keep chugging along while other parts of the economy collapse?
|
# ? Jun 2, 2014 01:38 |
|
They might not be safe, but it's hard to tell. A part of the shadow banking industry is shady loans between companies, with big banks acting as go-betweens. A lot depends on who's exposed and where, because if those healthy export-oriented companies have massive loans given out to teetering real estate companies, things could get really lovely for everyone.
|
# ? Jun 2, 2014 01:53 |
|
Export companies might not get paid on order. They get the order, go to their bank with the order, get credit, use that credit to pay for raw materials, employees and what not, produce, ship, get paid, repay the bank. If the bank is no longer around to give you credit... You need customers who pay upfront, so you need customers who have access to credit. Even if that customer is in a country with a solid economy, when they go to their bank and go "I need a loan in RMB so I can pay this Chinese company in advance to produce some widgets...", if the Chinese economy is shitfucked... Credit isn't just mortgages and credit cards, it's an important part of international trade.
|
# ? Jun 2, 2014 01:57 |
|
Did you guys read the article Cultural Imperial posted? China is doing another round of mini-stimulus package. I know alot of people in China are waiting for the property price drop so they can finally afford an apartment.
|
# ? Jun 2, 2014 04:15 |
|
whatever7 posted:Did you guys read the article Cultural Imperial posted? China is doing another round of mini-stimulus package. I know alot of people in China are waiting for the property price drop so they can finally afford an apartment. Yeah but do you think that's going to be enough? If the chinese economy is really in free fall, your friends are going to be playing catch-the-falling-knife.
|
# ? Jun 2, 2014 06:22 |
|
Cultural Imperial posted:Yeah but do you think that's going to be enough? If the chinese economy is really in free fall, your friends are going to be playing catch-the-falling-knife. Gordan Chang comes out with a China is on the edge of collapse article every couple of months. Who knows maybe one of these days he'll be right.
|
# ? Jun 2, 2014 18:36 |
|
GlassEye-Boy posted:Gordan Chang comes out with a China is on the edge of collapse article every couple of months. Who knows maybe one of these days he'll be right. It looks like he is slowly but surely getting closer.
|
# ? Jun 2, 2014 18:43 |
|
Cultural Imperial posted:Yeah but do you think that's going to be enough? If the chinese economy is really in free fall, your friends are going to be playing catch-the-falling-knife. Only time the property price legit drop in the last (15 years?) was in the later half of 2008. I remember some people even gave up on their mortgages because the apartment price on the market was actually lower than their mortgaged amount. Soon afterward the property price sprung back to getting higher and higher. Many people regretted that they didn't buy an apartment at the time.
|
# ? Jun 2, 2014 19:46 |
|
FrozenVent posted:Export companies might not get paid on order. They get the order, go to their bank with the order, get credit, use that credit to pay for raw materials, employees and what not, produce, ship, get paid, repay the bank. Chinese export companies in my field at least don't extend credit. Terms are a chunk up front and a chunk before you get your documents, paid in USD.
|
# ? Jun 2, 2014 20:52 |
|
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSS7N0MG03P20140603?irpc=932 PMI is up to a four month high. Maybe China isn't sliding into oblivion.
|
# ? Jun 3, 2014 07:57 |
|
Cultural Imperial posted:http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSS7N0MG03P20140603?irpc=932 rip gordon chang, until next month.
|
# ? Jun 3, 2014 08:26 |
|
So just how fundamental to China's economy is corruption? My impression so far is that local party politicians have their fingers in the economy down to the very basic level, and interfere freely, if not extremely heavily, in order to enrich themselves and curry political favor. Assuming that's the case, the question is then whether this is sustainable in the sense that it can coexist with healthy economic growth? Or is it slowly veering China's economy off track with perverse incentives to the point where growth will slow down and stop? Is this one of those questions where nobody really knows the answer and we'll just have to wait and see? icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 02:52 on Jun 4, 2014 |
# ? Jun 4, 2014 02:44 |
|
icantfindaname posted:So just how fundamental to China's economy is corruption? My impression so far is that local party politicians have their fingers in essentially all levels of the economy, and basically interfere in order to enrich themselves and curry political favor. Is this sustainable in the sense that it can coexist with healthy economic growth or is it slowly veering China's economy off track with perverse incentives? Is this one of those questions where nobody really knows the answer and you just have to wait and find out? It seems about normal with how most developing countries act (albeit at a different scale). Back in the late 19th Century one of the most powerful positions in the US government was the Collector of the Port of New York, because he was the guy that collected the tariffs on goods going through the New York harbor. Corruption as you define it is probably not conductive to government policy but for economics I would say there are probably worse evils. It probably hurts the people worse than the businesses, but that's always true.
|
# ? Jun 4, 2014 02:49 |
|
icantfindaname posted:So just how fundamental to China's economy is corruption? My impression so far is that local party politicians have their fingers in the economy down to the very basic level, and interfere freely, if not extremely heavily, in order to enrich themselves and curry political favor. I understand this is how it work: (I am completely pulling out of my rear end so bare with me here) In the Communist party system hierarchy, its complete fractional. You have to take side as soon as you have a half way serious position in the party. That's how you advance you political career. And the party cadres who has the largest corruptions are usually the city level vice mayor, or mayor himself since secretary of the party committee is usually the more powerful position. The police chiefs who fall for corruption charges are almost always the vise police chief. The way the corruption work is that the main guy never touch the money himself. Its always the vice whatever guy that does the dirty work. You need to get work done you need to build something you always have to spend tons to money to get the government approval. The money will get distributed to the whole party hierarchy in the whole district. Of course you have to make sure you spend the money on the right fraction, because if you bet on the wrong horse when the Beijing protection falls, a whole bunch of people under the big man all fall for various corruption charges as well. Almost everyone is dirty, because that's how you get eanything done in China, so its not hard to find actual corruption charge to bring against you. And I am speaking this as a cultural thing, in China alot of times you have to grease the palms to get things done. For example, undergo surgery in the hospital you are expected to give red pockets to all the doctors and nurse involved. You don't have to pay it but most people who go in for surgeries usually do. This is just one example, the whole political system is like that, times 10. There are so many governmental bureaus that can put a stop on the project you are working on its petty much impossible to get anything done through the clean and official channel. Now if you want to know if this system is fair, and encourage competition. I don't know. Personally I have always thought Taiwan has just as much corruption, going by the things I read on the Taiwanese newspaper. But it didn't stop it from becoming a developed country. From an economic angle as long as there are no large number of party cadres cash out the money and run out of China, the money is still in China. It will get back to the economic one way or the other. If you are in a big city, go to university, graduate with a decent grade and go work for a foreign company, you actually don't have to deal with any corruption on the personal level. Maybe a couple red pockets to the kitdergarden techers and thats it. Now in regard to the anti corruption mechanism, there are always various bureaus. Rich people/entrepreneurs actually don't have a lot of power in China. It's no different from Russia. There are very few out spoken rich people in China. Alot of the people's business success are heavily tied to the regional party cadres they are aligning with. The party know all about your dirt. As soon as the protection umbrella in Beijing fall or retire, you are very well will be the next one to go. The moment the man above decide to close the net on a party official is called 双规 (double required, it stands for "required time, required location".) A couple of guys from the Discipline Inspection Commission will sudden show up unannounced. You are brought to a heavily guarded little mansion, in "required location, required time" write down all your deeds in a specific corruption investigation. The unspoken rule is that anything else you write down about a comrade for different issues that's not being investigated won't be prosecuted, for now. There is no communication with your friends and family. They will watch you and make sure you don't kill yourself too. The "double required" procedure is a party internal investigation mechanism, its only used for party officials. As you can see, the corruption in the provincial level is more likely a "secretly sanctioned corruption" as oppose to "unsanctioned corruption". I don't think anybody will ever figure out how much negative impact it has on the country. I would like to know if there is a meta way to measure it too.
|
# ? Jun 4, 2014 04:37 |
|
How much do these provincial politicians and bureaucrats generally get paid? I know throughout modern history their wages were basically unlivable.
|
# ? Jun 4, 2014 05:44 |
|
blueyedevil posted:How much do these provincial politicians and bureaucrats generally get paid? I know throughout modern history their wages were basically unlivable. IIRC, Bo Xilai's salary (before he got ganked, anyway) was something absurd like $20,000 a year. This, for a man whose family assets can be enumerated in billions. The people who get really hosed are the lowest level bureaucrats. They get paid wages even lower than the above, and they really don't have the ability to BE corrupt. There was an article about them a few months back, and they interviewed a guy who had spent the last few years of his life working 8 am to 8 pm every day for peanuts, with no promotion in sight. TheBalor fucked around with this message at 05:52 on Jun 4, 2014 |
# ? Jun 4, 2014 05:50 |
|
Has there been any analysis of the proposed emission limits China will be imposing?
|
# ? Jun 6, 2014 20:40 |
|
Helsing posted:On the other hand China's development is still driven by exports rather than domestic consumption like in the United States. So what happens to all those export oriented factories? Are they taken down by a collapse in the credit system? Or can they keep chugging along while other parts of the economy collapse? From what I'm hearing from people in industry and finance right now exports aren't too healthy either. It's all anecdotal, I know, but I'm hearing pretty consistently from a range of sources that they're at best stagnant and possibly declining.
|
# ? Jun 8, 2014 12:16 |
|
CNN posted:In the latest move in China's anti-corruption campaign, more than 1,000 people in Guangdong Province have been marked as "naked officials" -- those suspected of storing graft gains with overseas family members. http://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/09/world/asia/china-naked-officials/index.html Not that it means much of anything on a grander scale, but hey, at least they're pretending to do something about it.
|
# ? Jun 9, 2014 14:49 |
|
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-06/china-s-property-developers-face-record-wave-of-maturing-debt.htmlquote:Chinese property developers face a record surge in maturing debt next year, as the country’s banking regulator says it’s monitoring risks from the cooling real-estate market.
|
# ? Jun 9, 2014 14:51 |
|
FrozenVent posted:http://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/09/world/asia/china-naked-officials/index.html I read the news earlier. At least they try to keep the corruption money inside China. Also, 3/4 of the "naked officials" rather lost their jobs then get their spouses back to China, I guess they have funneled the dirty money out of China already.
|
# ? Jun 9, 2014 20:15 |
|
FrozenVent posted:http://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/09/world/asia/china-naked-officials/index.html Honestly, I can't even be positive about that. You can enact sumptuary laws, arrest 100 umpteen corrupt officials, execute 100 billion of them and so on, but as long as the legal system is a joke and connections are needed to get anything done the problem won't be solved. Anti-corruption campaigns have been going on for ages and they've always been wildly ineffective. dilbertschalter fucked around with this message at 14:51 on Jun 10, 2014 |
# ? Jun 10, 2014 14:48 |
|
Has there ever been a government as undemocratic as China, and even a 20th of its size, that wasn't also wildly corrupt? It seems like an inherent feature of regimes controlled by an autocratic in-group, whether it's El Presidente's family or the Communist Party.
|
# ? Jun 10, 2014 15:08 |
|
|
# ? May 6, 2024 03:07 |
|
TheBalor posted:Has there ever been a government as undemocratic as China, and even a 20th of its size, that wasn't also wildly corrupt? It seems like an inherent feature of regimes controlled by an autocratic in-group, whether it's El Presidente's family or the Communist Party. India and it's not close, unless a sizable number of Party members in china are being investigated for murder and kidnapping on top of graft. And in India you don't even have the benefit of competency!
|
# ? Jun 10, 2014 15:17 |