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thehustler posted:Oakeshott has gone Joke party.
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May 28, 2014 12:29
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thehustler posted:Oakeshott has gone quote:I am today taking leave of absence from the House of Lords and resigning as a member of the Liberal Democrats. I am sure the Party is heading for disaster if it keeps Nick Clegg; and I must not get in the way of the many brave Liberal Democrats fighting for change. oh dear Cable
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May 28, 2014 12:31
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Cerv posted:oh dear Cable Did he deny any knowledge of it, all the BBC says is he 'distanced' himself from it? e: Just noticed that the results of the second poll he commissioned are actually there. It's Danny Alexander's constituency, predictably, and shows 32% SNP, 24% Labour, 15% Lib Dems, 12% Conservatives, 8% UKIP, 5% Green intention for 2015. 49% knew their MP was Danny Alexander. 58% think Nick Clegg's doing a bad job, but only 55% think David Cameron is. The Lib Dems still come third, but increase their vote by 4% if Cable takes over, they go up 2% if Ed Davey takes over and come narrow second if Danny Alexander is leader, 31% to 27%. Alecto fucked around with this message at 12:57 on May 28, 2014 |
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May 28, 2014 12:35
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Seaside Loafer posted:I know this is a silly notion but explain why to me the government couldnt just say to the rail companies gently caress off we own all of this now and guess what we arent even going to buy your shares out, what are you going to do about it? We have an army. Surprisingly, the ECHR.
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May 28, 2014 12:53
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Cerv posted:oh dear Cable Why does Oakeshott say it would be preferable for a woman to lead the LDs? Does he have someone particular in mind?
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May 28, 2014 13:04
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Alecto posted:e: Just noticed that the results of the second poll he commissioned are actually there. It's Danny Alexander's constituency, predictably, and shows 32% SNP, 24% Labour, 15% Lib Dems, 12% Conservatives, 8% UKIP, 5% Green intention for 2015. 49% knew their MP was Danny Alexander. 58% think Nick Clegg's doing a bad job, but only 55% think David Cameron is. The Lib Dems still come third, but increase their vote by 4% if Cable takes over, they go up 2% if Ed Davey takes over and come narrow second if Danny Alexander is leader, 31% to 27%.  Seeing that odious void of a person will lose his seat is giving me some serious schadenfreude.In other news our hopeless tabloid media has been hoaxed again. Ran a story about how the Californian mass shooting was due to harmless creatine bodybuilding supplement. twoot fucked around with this message at 13:08 on May 28, 2014 |
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May 28, 2014 13:04
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"his best fried, hugh wottmeight who died in a tragic squatting accident when he attempted a 350 kg squat and the bar squashed his head" rip hugh wottmeight
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May 28, 2014 13:12
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Jedit posted:Why does Oakeshott say it would be preferable for a woman to lead the LDs? Does he have someone particular in mind? I can't think of anyone (Lynne Featherstone?) but it would eliminate the possibility of one of the embarrassments in the Cabinet getting the job. He could also simply feel that a (liberal) female leader is long overdue, and electing one as leader would at least make a public impact.
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May 28, 2014 13:21
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He is moving onto a career as a DJ in Ibiza:
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May 28, 2014 13:23
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LemonDrizzle posted:hugh wottmeight
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May 28, 2014 13:29
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The Lib Dems are already doing the in-fighting, might as well go the full hog and get something out of it. Get a new leader, pull out of government and bunker down on the 20 savable seats for 10 or 20 years.Kegluneq posted:I can't think of anyone (Lynne Featherstone?) but it would eliminate the possibility of one of the embarrassments in the Cabinet getting the job. He could also simply feel that a (liberal) female leader is long overdue, and electing one as leader would at least make a public impact. Labour have been making the same sounds with their next leader, it's a thorn in both parties sides that the tories of all people have the first women prime minister, they feel they need to catch up. JoylessJester fucked around with this message at 13:39 on May 28, 2014 |
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May 28, 2014 13:37
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I'll be the new Lib Dem leader. Keep an eye out for the (Combat) Liberal(ism and Spread) Democra(cy) (Ml-CBGBs) coming to a polling station near you!
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May 28, 2014 13:41
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Alecto posted:Did he deny any knowledge of it, all the BBC says is he 'distanced' himself from it? Wow. I mean that's big. To put it in context, apart from 1997 & 2001 where Labour got in off the back of the huge national swing , the constituency around the Inverness area has been Liberal/Lib Dem dating back to 1895. For whatever reason (I'd guess it would be connected to land reforms in the 19th century, the Liberals seem to have done something to help the crofters that inhabited much of the Highland emptiness, this has been as strong a Liberal heartland as anywhere in the country, so for them to fall to just 15% of the vote would be an incredible indictment of Danny Alexander & the legacy his party and government has left us. He pulled in 40% of the vote in 2010! This has filled me with a sense of optimism that had left me after the recent Euro elections.
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May 28, 2014 13:42
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Typical luck for the Lib Dems, one of them actually does something that most of the public will support (though I suspect most people don't just want to metaphorically stab Nick Clegg in the back), but then immediately resigns!forkboy84 posted:This has filled me with a sense of optimism that had left me after the recent Euro elections. Yep. For all the horrible racists and Tories that might get inflicted on us, it genuinely looks like those orange bastards are going to get properly, terminally, hosed in 2015.
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May 28, 2014 14:19
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Pasco posted:Yep. For all the horrible racists and Tories that might get inflicted on us, it genuinely looks like those orange bastards are going to get properly, terminally, hosed in 2015. I'd personally have preferred the Tories and racists getting terminally hosed. It really isn't making me see the recent election results in any sort of more pleasant light.
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May 28, 2014 14:30
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Logically I know many of the people replacing the Lib Dems will be far worse, but viscerally the schadenfreude of watching a bunch of cowards and traitors get (electorally) massacred will probably be the only silver lining of a pretty horrific election night. A whole evening of portillo moments.
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May 28, 2014 14:35
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goddamnedtwisto posted:Surprisingly, the ECHR. I think you mean the CoJEU not the ECHR. The convention means jack all when weighed against Parliamentary Sovereignty. The CoJEU is the one who can rule against us and combined with the Commission can institute proceedings against the UK as a whole (which is what they would do).
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May 28, 2014 15:13
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XMNN posted:Logically I know many of the people replacing the Lib Dems will be far worse, but viscerally the schadenfreude of watching a bunch of cowards and traitors get (electorally) massacred will probably be the only silver lining of a pretty horrific election night. A whole evening of portillo moments. I'm thinking we're going to see lots of tories go as well. Having a bunch of your voters split off to vote UKIP is going to be pretty drat fatal in a first-past-the-post system., and the better UKIP does, the worse the tories are going to do.
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May 28, 2014 15:22
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The cordon sanitaire has no force if there aren't consequences for breaking it, so embrace that visceral hatred and join us in relishing the downfall of the Liberal Democrats.
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May 28, 2014 15:27
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Gort posted:I'm thinking we're going to see lots of tories go as well. Having a bunch of your voters split off to vote UKIP is going to be pretty drat fatal in a first-past-the-post system., and the better UKIP does, the worse the tories are going to do. Not necessarily! Truth is, nobody really knows what the combination of a four-party system (Or five-party, if you count the Greens) and a first past the post electoral system will do to the results in 2015. The conventional wisdom was that the rise of Ukip would mainly hurt the Conservatives, by splitting the right-wing vote but the recent elections have shown that they can be equally threatening to Labour and Lib Dem-held areas. What this will mean in terms of overall majorities come 2015 is anyone's guess, although that's not stopping the media pundits from confidently holding forth on how they think it's going to all pan out.
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May 28, 2014 15:35
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Peel posted:The cordon sanitaire has no force if there aren't consequences for breaking it, so embrace that visceral hatred and join us in relishing the downfall of the Liberal Democrats. There should be a cordon sanitaire for UKIP, but Portsmouth is proving otherwise.  I do think the thread is getting too excited about Oakeshott's polling, though. Labour winning Hallam, for example, is rather shocking for a constituency where the last time Labour came second was in 1979. If Clegg were to lose, it would be to the Tories. Kegluneq posted:I can't think of anyone (Lynne Featherstone?) but it would eliminate the possibility of one of the embarrassments in the Cabinet getting the job. He could also simply feel that a (liberal) female leader is long overdue, and electing one as leader would at least make a public impact. Jo Swinson is another name that's often floated as a possible future leader.
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May 28, 2014 15:40
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ronya posted:the government presumably has to pay the shareholders for their shares, where do the funds come from? Not if when their franchises run out the TOCs all lose their bids to the government's very own British Rail 2: Track Electrification Boogaloo or whatever it's called. The shareholders of transport companies that currently run services should know renewal of franchises isn't guaranteed so must be prepared to suck eggs as has recently happened with
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May 28, 2014 15:42
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Lord Twisted posted:I think you mean the CoJEU not the ECHR. The convention means jack all when weighed against Parliamentary Sovereignty. The CoJEU is the one who can rule against us and combined with the Commission can institute proceedings against the UK as a whole (which is what they would do). You're absolutely right, and the only mitigation I can offer for confusing/conflating two very different European institutions is that I was attempting to get a job on a tabloid.
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May 28, 2014 15:43
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TinTower posted:There should be a cordon sanitaire for UKIP, but Portsmouth is proving otherwise. As I've mentioned before, Hallam is a special case because of the whole Forgemasters thing. Tories will have a hell of a time campaigning in a constituency where they almost drove the largest employer out of business and certainly denied them a huge chunk of new work.
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May 28, 2014 15:45
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TinTower posted:Jo Swinson is another name that's often floated as a possible future leader. She had a majority over Labour of 4.6% in 2010, making her the 13th most vulnerable Lib Dem. I suppose they could try moving her to another seat but East Dunbartonshire is a lost cause.
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May 28, 2014 15:50
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Umiapik posted:Not necessarily! Truth is, nobody really knows what the combination of a four-party system (Or five-party, if you count the Greens) and a first past the post electoral system will do to the results in 2015. The conventional wisdom was that the rise of Ukip would mainly hurt the Conservatives, by splitting the right-wing vote but the recent elections have shown that they can be equally threatening to Labour and Lib Dem-held areas. What this will mean in terms of overall majorities come 2015 is anyone's guess, although that's not stopping the media pundits from confidently holding forth on how they think it's going to all pan out. Not equally threatening, but yes, threatening. Other than the fact that UKIP voters are still many times more likely to have come from the Conservatives than Labour, the key difference is Labour will face little to no opposition in their Northern strongholds, so while UKIP make take a lot of votes from them, they still end up winning the same number of seats in FPTP. However, the worry for the Conservatives is not only that a greater proportion of UKIP voters being ex-Conservative will lose them Lab-Con marginals, but also that they could end up losing a lot of Southern seats to the Lib Dems. Especially combined with a collapsing Lib Dem vote, I think it's very unlikely that they'll lose any of their equivalent safe seats, but it's possible that if the UKIP vote doesn't go down a lot, they'll actually end up losing Con-Lib marginals where they would've expected to clean up in the absence of UKIP. If this is combined with Labour massacring the Northern Lib Dems, it makes the chance of even a continuation of the coalition, let alone a Conservative majority, very unlikely. It comes down to the fact that Northern and Midlands Lib Dem voters are extremely unhappy with the coalition, whereas the Southern ones are much more OK with it, so Labour can sweep the North even with UKIP harrying them, while the Conservatives still have to fight for the South while tied to a UKIP anchor. It might be that the Lib Dem vote collapses everywhere enough that it actually doesn't matter that much, and UKIP just fucks them in the Midlands marginals, but we just don't know at this point.
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May 28, 2014 15:51
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goddamnedtwisto posted:As I've mentioned before, Hallam is a special case because of the whole Forgemasters thing. Tories will have a hell of a time campaigning in a constituency where they almost drove the largest employer out of business and certainly denied them a huge chunk of new work. Again, thatcher making GBS threads all over Sheffield in 1988/1989 didn't seem to do their vote much harm in '92, that Forgemasters is the only part of the sheffield steel industry to talk about today, should have been enough to guarantee a non-tory vote in 92.
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May 28, 2014 15:53
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Survation have an analysis in which they mention that ICM broke a lot of their own conventions for the sake of Oakeshott.
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May 28, 2014 15:58
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SybilVimes posted:Again, thatcher making GBS threads all over Sheffield in 1988/1989 didn't seem to do their vote much harm in '92, that Forgemasters is the only part of the sheffield steel industry to talk about today, should have been enough to guarantee a non-tory vote in 92. Am I mistaken, or does Hallam not have a sizeable student population. It seems from local elections and polling that students are going for Labour from the Lib Dems in a big way. Might not be enough in Hallam, but it could make it close.
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May 28, 2014 15:59
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Alecto posted:Am I mistaken, or does Hallam not have a sizeable student population. It seems from local elections and polling that students are going for Labour from the Lib Dems in a big way. Might not be enough in Hallam, but it could make it close. So does Cambridge, but Huppert is winning students there 40-18 according to ICM.
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May 28, 2014 16:00
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Labour is only a few points behind the conservatives in Hallam, I really don't think it's unrealistic for them to win here. It is a pretty weird constituency, the city parts are very studenty (literally everyone I know seems to live in it) but it stretches way out into the Peaks through some really posh areas which means it's one of the richest in the country. If there's a huge collapse of the Lib Dem vote only a bit more of it needs to go to Labour for them to have a chance at winning, which doesn't seem unreasonable. I think the poll that just got published basically said this. I think the most important reason the Lib Dems need to get hosed is that the entire concept of representative democracy is completely undermined if the people you vote for can literally do a complete 180 on their campaign promises with no repercussions. What's the point of voting for anybody if you can't at least trust them not to do exactly the thing they said they wouldn't do? Like, politicians failing to keep promises is one thing, but actually doing the complete opposite is just ridiculous. e: also, Nick Clegg is probably going to be far more unpopular with students than the average lib dem. XMNN fucked around with this message at 16:03 on May 28, 2014 |
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May 28, 2014 16:01
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TinTower posted:So does Cambridge, but Huppert is winning students there 40-18 according to ICM. Well I'm not sure how reliable demographic crosstabs are in polls like that, certainly national polls of students alone show Labour in the 40+% range, with the Lib Dems struggling to even overtake the Greens in fourth, and local elections in towns with a reasonable student population seem to be consistent with a large Lib Dem to Lab swing.
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May 28, 2014 16:10
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Alecto posted:Am I mistaken, or does Hallam not have a sizeable student population. It seems from local elections and polling that students are going for Labour from the Lib Dems in a big way. Might not be enough in Hallam, but it could make it close. It's its rural coverage that's the traditional tory vote, I think
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May 28, 2014 16:13
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Cambridge is an exceptional case for a number of reasons -- Huppert has a good local reputation (in the university anyway) and he's always been firmly anti-tuition fees and rebelled against Clegg during the vote.
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May 28, 2014 16:16
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Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if Mulholland were to win Leeds North West either, for exactly the same reasons.
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May 28, 2014 16:19
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 I really hope this isn't a photoshop.
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May 28, 2014 16:27
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Munin posted:I'd personally have preferred the Tories and racists getting terminally hosed. It really isn't making me see the recent election results in any sort of more pleasant light. That would of course be delightful, but my local MP isn't a Tory, the nearest Tory MP sits in a seat about 4 hours drive south from here, instead I've got Danny Alexander. So I'm going to be smug and optimistic with polling information suggesting he's going to tank in the next General Election because after Thursdays results there's got to be something worth smirking about.
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May 28, 2014 16:36
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Pilchenstein posted:
Grain on the edited bits is the same as the stuff around it. Not impossible to replicate, but looks legit to me.
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May 28, 2014 16:44
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Alecto posted:It comes down to the fact that Northern and Midlands Lib Dem voters are extremely unhappy with the coalition, whereas the Southern ones are much more OK with it, so Labour can sweep the North even with UKIP harrying them, while the Conservatives still have to fight for the South while tied to a UKIP anchor. Well, this is what I'm hoping tbh, although there's so many ifs and buts involved now that I'm a good deal less confident than I was a couple of years ago.
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May 28, 2014 16:45
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SybilVimes posted:Again, thatcher making GBS threads all over Sheffield in 1988/1989 didn't seem to do their vote much harm in '92, that Forgemasters is the only part of the sheffield steel industry to talk about today, should have been enough to guarantee a non-tory vote in 92. Except the steel industry had mostly gone in the area by 79. The Tories won the seat through an excellent local machine and exploiting the fact that most of the collapse of the Sheffield steel industry had happened under Labour rather than post-Thatcher seeming to show that the Tories were the ones to save them. (I'll admit at this point that I'm getting all this second-hand from a friend who's from the area so it's entirely possible that I'm talking poo poo)
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May 28, 2014 16:55
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