Ontario Election Thread: The Most Successful Name In Politics Is Win

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Who will you be voting for?
	A Liberal
	A Progressive Conservative
	A New Democrat
	A Comedy Option

bunnyofdoom: Mar 29, 2008; [b]BUNNIES ARE CUTE BUT DEADLY/b]

JoelJoel posted:

It's almost as though no one takes the threat of the ONDP challenging for power seriously.

Wonder why.

# ? Jun 2, 2014 15:06

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# ? Jun 9, 2024 12:07

vyelkin: Jan 2, 2011

To no one's surprise, the Star has endorsed Wynne.

# ? Jun 2, 2014 15:07

sbaldrick: Jul 19, 2006; Driven by Hate

vyelkin posted:

So you know how we keep saying Tim Hudak's been cribbing his policies straight from the GOP? Turns out we were righter than we knew (heh).

More here: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/hudak-turned-to-american-right-to-craft-platform/article18940070/

In what world is taking advise from some of the most unpopular political people in history consider a good idea.

# ? Jun 2, 2014 16:05

Jimbozig: Sep 30, 2003; I like sharing and ice cream and animals.

sbaldrick posted:

In what world is taking advise from some of the most unpopular political people in history consider a good idea.

Well they've been very successful in their country. They probably do have useful advice.

# ? Jun 2, 2014 17:37

FowlTheOwl: Nov 5, 2008; O thou precious owl,
The wise Minervas only fowl

Jimbozig posted:

Well they've been very successful in their country. They probably do have useful advice.

The history books will remember the sage advice Hudak got in a seance with Ronald Reagan that lead him to victory in the 2014 elections.

I think in Ontario, there is a Progressive Conservative base that doesn't really go for the wacky Right. By continuing to push such a strong line Hudak is only going to divide supporters.

FowlTheOwl fucked around with this message at 18:00 on Jun 2, 2014

# ? Jun 2, 2014 17:56

HackensackBackpack: Aug 20, 2007; Who needs a house out in Hackensack? Is that all you get for your money?

FowlTheOwl posted:

The history books will remember the sage advice Hudak got in a seance with Ronald Reagan that lead him to victory in the 2014 elections.

I think in Ontario, there is a Progressive Conservative base that doesn't really go for the wacky Right. By continuing to push such a strong line Hudak is only going to divide supporters.

They've kept him as leader this long, and he's survived contention after the last election as well as the last few by-elections, so either the majority of the party genuinely likes him, or they have no faith in anyone else they have to lead them.

# ? Jun 2, 2014 18:34

vyelkin: Jan 2, 2011

FowlTheOwl posted:

The history books will remember the sage advice Hudak got in a seance with Ronald Reagan that lead him to victory in the 2014 elections.

I think in Ontario, there is a Progressive Conservative base that doesn't really go for the wacky Right. By continuing to push such a strong line Hudak is only going to divide supporters.

He may be dividing supporters, but the majority of PC backers have nowhere else to go so they'll vote for him anyway. Meanwhile he's completely fired up the wacky right, the same way the Tea Party did in the US.

# ? Jun 2, 2014 18:35

Dreylad: Jun 19, 2001

Wynne really does seem to be banking on siphoning support from the NDP rather than from the Tories. Given how the ODNP have run their campaign so far it might very well work, although I think there's an equal danger that the ODNP voters just stay home while the right remains motivated and has a much higher turnout.

# ? Jun 2, 2014 18:48

Cocaine Bear: Nov 4, 2011; ACAB

We need to invent a camera that can trick Wynne into thinking the lens is actually 6-8 inches lower than it really is.

# ? Jun 2, 2014 22:55

sbaldrick: Jul 19, 2006; Driven by Hate

So even the Sun is saying that the Liberals have a lead.

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/06/02/libs-seven-points-ahead-of-tories-poll

# ? Jun 3, 2014 02:19

JohnnyCanuck: May 28, 2004; Strong And/Or Free

sbaldrick posted:

So even the Sun is saying that the Liberals have a lead.

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/06/02/libs-seven-points-ahead-of-tories-poll

iPolitics had a different view yesterday... one that I found really troubling.

quote:

Warmer weather brings signs of change to Ontario election
By L. Ian MacDonald | Jun 1, 2014 4:25 pm

On a pleasant spring evening in the early 1980s, the doorbell rang during a dinner party at a friend�s house in suburban Ottawa. When he opened the door, a stranger introduced himself as a representative of the Gallup poll and wondered if he could ask a few questions.

After the usual preliminary questions, he asked whether our host was very, somewhat, not, or not all satisfied with the federal government.

�Very satisfied,� replied my friend.

�And if an election were held tomorrow, would you vote for the Liberal Party, the Progressive Conservative Party, or the New Democratic Party?�

�Liberal,� replied Francis Fox, who was then communications minister and secretary of state in the Liberal government of Pierre Trudeau.

This is one of the reasons polls have margins of error. In those days, polling companies still knocked on doors, and were also polling by telephone. Since home telephones were then all hard lines, random telephone samples proved for decades to be just as accurate as interviews on the doorstep.

Nowadays, it�s hard to keep track of all the technology and methodologies in political polling. Some polling firms, notably Forum Research and EKOS, use interactive voice response (IVR) or robocalls. Others, such as Ipsos-Reid and Abacus, use online internet panels. Oracle Research uses random phone samples, with a bilingual call centre based in Sudbury.

They�re in the field at different times. They ask different questions. And they get different results, as they are in the current Ontario election campaign.

For example, last Thursday the Toronto Star ran a Forum poll that had the Conservatives and Liberals tied at 36 per cent, with the NDP trailing badly at 20 per cent. The Liberals led the Conservatives the previous week, 41-34, with the NDP at 20 per cent. The Forum IVR sample of 882 Ontarians was taken over only one day, last Tuesday. Most firms conduct their surveys over three days or more. As do parties with rolling polls every night for their internals.

The same day, Ipsos released its weekly poll for CTV, which had the Conservatives up one point to 36 per cent, the Liberals up three points to 34 per cent, and the NDP down five points to 23 per cent. The sample of 868 voters was taken in an online panel from May 26-29, over four days.

So in the Forum poll, the Liberals were down five points in one week, and in the Ipsos poll, they were up three points. Go figure.

But Ipsos also asks a hard question about voting intention that �nothing short of an unforeseen emergency could stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote.� And to this turnout question, 51 per cent of respondents said they�d vote, no matter what, up from 47 per cent the previous week.

And this is what Ipsos and other polling firms call �likely voters�, as distinct from the larger popular vote, which includes people who don�t vote, particularly in the under 35 demo.

Among likely voters, the Conservatives moved up five points to 41 per cent, the Liberals were down two points to 29 per cent, while the NDP grew two points to 25 per cent.

While Ipsos does not do seat projections, it said in its analysis that �the potential vote at the ballot box is where the Grits are in serious trouble.� No kidding. It�s the difference between a toss-up minority government in the popular vote and a slight Conservative majority produced by �likely voters.� Make no mistake, 40 per cent is majority territory in a three-party race.

In other words, never mind the pop-vote, look at the likely vote.

It may not be fool-proof, but the Ipsos �ballot box bonus��which is what Robert Bourassa also used to call it�was bang on its polling of the Quebec election on April 7.

In its final Quebec poll released on April 3, Ipsos saw the Liberals at 37 per cent, the Parti Quebecois at 29 per cent, the Coalition Avenir Quebec at 19 per cent and Quebec Solidaire at 13 per cent. But Ipsos also forecast a turnout of 72 per cent of likely voters with the Liberals at 40 per cent and the PQ at 28 per cent�majority territory for the Liberals.

In the event, the turnout was 71.4 per cent, with the Liberals at 41.5 per cent and the PQ at 25.3 per cent, with the CAQ moving up to 23 per cent.

The Ipsos projection of likely voters perfectly captured the trend and the outcome. The only thing their final poll in Quebec missed was the continuing free fall of the PQ�then losing a point a day�going into the last weekend of the campaign.

But the poll clearly identified the CAQ as the clear second choice of PQ switchers, which moved them up four points to 23 per cent and 22 seats.

If likely voters are now more predictive of outcomes than the larger popular vote, there�s other attitudinal data points that frame the ballot question.

In the Ontario election there are two overriding attitudinal questions. The first is whether it�s time for a change, and the second is whether the Liberals deserve to be re-elected.

In the Ipsos poll, 69 per cent of respondents say it�s time for a change, down from 72 per cent the previous week. And 31 per cent thought the Liberals deserved to be re-elected, up from 28 per cent a week earlier. You could certainly make the case that Kathleen Wynne had a good week, although among likely voters the time for a change number is 71 per cent and the �deserves re-election� number is 29 per cent.

You could also make a case that Conservative leader Tim Hudak had a difficult week, with economists shooting holes in his Million Jobs Plan. The Conservatives claimed their promised corporate tax cut would create 120,000 over eight years, while many economists retorted that it would be only 15,000 jobs over one year.

But here�s the thing. In the Ipsos poll, only 33 per cent of participants said Hudak�s jobs plan was credible, and 61 per cent were opposed to his plan to cut 100,000 jobs across the Ontario public service. In effect, Hudak�s negatives on these two issues have already been priced in.

The other attribute to consider is the best premier question, where NDP leader Andrea Horwath and Kathleen Wynne are tied at 34 per cent, with Hudak at 32 per cent. But again, among likely voters, Hudak moves up to 38 per cent, with Wynne at 32 per cent and Horwath at 30 per cent.

Finally, there�s the policy mix and how voters see priorities. In an Oracle poll released on Friday, jobs were the top issue at 31 per cent, �followed by rising utility prices (12 per cent) deficits or government spending (11 per cent), the economy (9 per cent) and health care (8 per cent).� Wynne�s call for an Ontario Pension Plan, a centrepiece of her platform, resonates with less than 2 per cent of voters.

When all these attitudinals are taken together, it�s hard to see a path to victory for Wynne, and equally unlikely that Hudak would lose. But there�s still the leaders� debate to come on Tuesday evening, and anything could happen there. It�s unusual for a debate to be held so close to an election�if someone takes a hit, he or she will have only a week to recover.

But if there�s no clear winner in the debate, the fundamentals will take over. And the fundamentals, especially as defined by Ipsos, favour change.

_{L. Ian MacDonald is editor of Policy, the bi-monthly magazine of Canadian politics and public policy. He is the author of five books. He served as chief speechwriter to Prime Minister Brian Mulroney from 1985-88, and later as head of the public affairs division of the Canadian Embassy in Washington from 1992-94.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author�s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.}

# ? Jun 3, 2014 03:02

HackensackBackpack: Aug 20, 2007; Who needs a house out in Hackensack? Is that all you get for your money?

ARE YOU READY FOR SOME ~~FOOTBALL~~ DEBATE?

or, alternatively

HackensackBackpack fucked around with this message at 13:27 on Jun 3, 2014

# ? Jun 3, 2014 13:14

CAPTAIN CAPSLOCK: Sep 11, 2001

Hudak looks loving ready in that poster.

# ? Jun 3, 2014 13:42

Blade_of_tyshalle: Jul 12, 2009; If you think that, along the way, you're not going to fail... you're blind.

There's no one I've ever met, no matter how successful they are, who hasn't said they had their failures along the way.

Hudak looks like Jack Nicholson in Batman.

Wait'll they get a load of me.

# ? Jun 3, 2014 13:51

Sashimi: Dec 26, 2008; College Slice

I think Wynne is about to do some sort of behind the back chokeslam on Horwath.

# ? Jun 3, 2014 14:13

Thomase: Mar 18, 2009

Blade_of_tyshalle posted:

Wait'll they get a load of me.

Tell me something, Ontario. You ever dance with the devil in the pale moonlight?

# ? Jun 3, 2014 14:16

linoleum floors: Mar 25, 2012; Please. Let me tell you all about how you're all idiots. I am of superior intellect here. Go suck some dicks. You have all fucking stupid opinions. This is my fucking opinion.

Already voted NDP. Too bad Wynne.

# ? Jun 3, 2014 19:46

Jimbozig: Sep 30, 2003; I like sharing and ice cream and animals.

JohnnyCanuck posted:

iPolitics had a different view yesterday... one that I found really troubling.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/author/l-ian-macdonald/

I wouldn't bother with anything he writes. He's just "unskewing" the polls and trying to spin Wynne's gains into a negative.

Now, the polls are still close enough that we have to be worried, but not because of what some old conservative hopefully imagines.

# ? Jun 3, 2014 19:46

St. Dogbert: Mar 17, 2011

Jimbozig posted:

http://www.ipolitics.ca/author/l-ian-macdonald/

I wouldn't bother with anything he writes. He's just "unskewing" the polls and trying to spin Wynne's gains into a negative.

Now, the polls are still close enough that we have to be worried, but not because of what some old conservative hopefully imagines.

He didn't say anything that hasn't been said here as well. The Liberals can have a tremendous lead in the polls, but it won't matter if 40 per cent of those who actually turn up to vote support the Conservatives.

# ? Jun 3, 2014 20:33

Jimbozig: Sep 30, 2003; I like sharing and ice cream and animals.

St. Dogbert posted:

He didn't say anything that hasn't been said here as well. The Liberals can have a tremendous lead in the polls, but it won't matter if 40 per cent of those who actually turn up to vote support the Conservatives.

So look at the headlines he has written about the election and see if you can spot the pattern. Note that I'm not cherrypicking: these are all of the articles he has up on iPolitics about the election.

"Wynne and the Liberals: Running on empty"
"Hudak looks to go big; Wynne looks to stay home"
"While Wynne was relaxing, an election was happening"
"Andrea Horwath: the people�s choice and her party�s punching bag"
"Warmer weather brings signs of change to Ontario election"

Yes, we know that the conservatives have an advantage in likely voters and a disadvantage in terms of vote concentration. So is this guy taking an even view and talking about all the factors? Nope, he's just talking about the ones that help the PCs because he's a party shill. He was a speechwriter for Mulroney and then Mulroney gave him an embassy job in Washington. He played high school hockey with Jim Flaherty and was a lifelong friend of his. The guy is the farthest thing from unbiased.

Jimbozig fucked around with this message at 20:54 on Jun 3, 2014

# ? Jun 3, 2014 20:50

Saalkin: Jun 29, 2008

I haven't got a voter card but the rest of my family has. loving bullshit!

# ? Jun 3, 2014 21:52

Funkdreamer: Jul 15, 2005; It'll be a blast

Jimbozig posted:

So look at the headlines he has written about the election and see if you can spot the pattern. Note that I'm not cherrypicking: these are all of the articles he has up on iPolitics about the election.

"Wynne and the Liberals: Running on empty"
"Hudak looks to go big; Wynne looks to stay home"
"While Wynne was relaxing, an election was happening"
"Andrea Horwath: the people�s choice and her party�s punching bag"
"Warmer weather brings signs of change to Ontario election"

Yes, we know that the conservatives have an advantage in likely voters and a disadvantage in terms of vote concentration. So is this guy taking an even view and talking about all the factors? Nope, he's just talking about the ones that help the PCs because he's a party shill. He was a speechwriter for Mulroney and then Mulroney gave him an embassy job in Washington. He played high school hockey with Jim Flaherty and was a lifelong friend of his. The guy is the farthest thing from unbiased.

Who cares? The article was basically accurate.

And applying a likely-voter model isn't "unskewing". That's idiotic. EKOS is going to shift to a likely-voter model for their next poll.

# ? Jun 3, 2014 22:11

Helsing: Aug 23, 2003; DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU JOE BIDEN

And the debate has started. Livestream here.

# ? Jun 3, 2014 23:32

Lumius: Nov 24, 2004; Superior Awesome Sucks

I'm pretty tired of hearing of gas plants. Or, at the very least, I don't want it to dominate this debate (it will).

# ? Jun 3, 2014 23:37

Helsing: Aug 23, 2003; DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU JOE BIDEN

This does not seem like a good opening for Wynne.

# ? Jun 3, 2014 23:41

DutchDupe: Dec 25, 2013; How does the kitty cat go?

...meow?

Very gooood.

Helsing posted:

This does not seem like a good opening for Wynne.

Well, when the very first question is about Liberal corruption...

# ? Jun 3, 2014 23:41

Sovy Kurosei: Oct 9, 2012

It is weird seeing Wynne looking at the camera all the time when responding to the other two.

Are... they seriously going to talk about the gas plants for the entire debate?

# ? Jun 3, 2014 23:42

Helsing: Aug 23, 2003; DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU JOE BIDEN

DutchDupe posted:

Well, when the very first question is about Liberal corruption...

Yeah and her response was to seemingly slam her own party repeatedly and emphasize how awful the gas plants scandal is. I don't really understand what her response to Horwath and Hudak is going to be when Wynne's first statement of the night was to acknowledge how horrible the gas plants scandal was.

# ? Jun 3, 2014 23:43

AegisP: Oct 5, 2008

Sovy Kurosei posted:

It is weird seeing Wynne looking at the camera all the time when responding to the other two.

Are... they seriously going to talk about the gas plants for the entire debate?

Well, Wynne tried to talk about pensions. But then Horwath decided to just talk over her with gas plants, gas plants, gas plants.

# ? Jun 3, 2014 23:43

DynamicSloth: Jul 30, 2006; "Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

AegisP posted:

Well, Wynne tried to talk about pensions. But then Horwath decided to just talk over her with gas plants, gas plants, gas plants.

Andrea did good multitasking there, I think she got the better of the pension exchange at the same time, Wynne never really defended the PRPPs.

Hudak playing nice with Horwath is creepy as hell.

# ? Jun 3, 2014 23:47

Think: Sep 20, 2005

High hydro bills? Let me just tell you about gas plants...

# ? Jun 3, 2014 23:48

velvet milkman: Feb 13, 2012; by R. Guyovich

This debate is awesome. How did Tim Hudak ascend to this position of power? Jesus Christ

# ? Jun 3, 2014 23:48

DutchDupe: Dec 25, 2013; How does the kitty cat go?

...meow?

Very gooood.

Hudak...sounds so passionate...experienced...thoughtful...when he talks like this.

# ? Jun 3, 2014 23:49

velvet milkman: Feb 13, 2012; by R. Guyovich

MASSIVE INDUSTRIAL WINDFARMS BEING FORCED INTO YOUR COMMUNITIES

# ? Jun 3, 2014 23:50

Helsing: Aug 23, 2003; DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU JOE BIDEN

MILLION JOBS PLAN

# ? Jun 3, 2014 23:54

Sovy Kurosei: Oct 9, 2012

Trees and Squids posted:

MASSIVE INDUSTRIAL WINDFARMS BEING FORCED INTO YOUR COMMUNITIES

A LANDSCAPE OF PINCUSHIONS

# ? Jun 3, 2014 23:54

Pinterest Mom: Jun 9, 2009

Who are all these businesses who are gravely concerned about the government's balance sheet?

# ? Jun 3, 2014 23:59

Precambrian Video Games: Aug 19, 2002

Pinterest Mom posted:

Who are all these businesses who are gravely concerned about the government's balance sheet?

When I go to my local family restaurant for a nice dinner, they keep saying they would love to hire another server and cook but when they look at Ontario's deficit...

This debate is horrible and I don't like any of these "leaders". I guess Horwath has a few decent zingers but that's about it.

# ? Jun 4, 2014 00:00

Helsing: Aug 23, 2003; DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU JOE BIDEN

Woah, Tim Hudak just went full on televangelist. He knows in his heart that his plan is going to work.

# ? Jun 4, 2014 00:05

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# ? Jun 9, 2024 12:07

Sovy Kurosei: Oct 9, 2012

"NDP wants to reward job creators with tax credits."

The overton window is so far to the right I can barely make it out with my peripheral vision.

# ? Jun 4, 2014 00:07

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