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FrozenVent posted:Because you didn't get my sarcasm earlier: This is completely unrealistic; utopic would be using too kind a word. It won't happen short of the kind of social upheaval that would make this housing bubble a trivial issue. You're wasting your time talking about a fantasy most people grow out of before they graduate college. You're right of course  New plan: Wait for the housing bubble to burst and prey the powers that be don't steal too much from the public to shore up their insolvent banks so as to preserving their position in society.
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Jun 7, 2014 15:33
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Rutibex posted:You're right of course You mean all that posting about our future socialist utopia wasn't in complete earnest? I feel so betrayed.  There will be people that get destroyed by their greed, and that will probably be the best we can hope for.
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Jun 7, 2014 16:07
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there will be many more people who suffer and are destroyed by the greed of others.
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Jun 7, 2014 22:41
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nvm
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Jun 7, 2014 23:05
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JawKnee posted:there will be many more people who suffer and are destroyed by the greed of others. I will only be happy about the first group.
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Jun 8, 2014 03:05
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Check out @LJKawa's Tweet: https://twitter.com/LJKawa/status/475714976124915712 Lol namaste friends fucked around with this message at 20:43 on Jun 8, 2014 |
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Jun 8, 2014 20:39
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Prices rose with completions and now prices are rising with no completions? There's no obvious conclusion here to me, other than: wow, the Irish were spectacularly stupid in the run up to 2008.
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Jun 8, 2014 21:24
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Lexicon posted:Prices rose with completions and now prices are rising with no completions? There's no obvious conclusion here to me, other than: wow, the Irish were spectacularly stupid in the run up to 2008. It's more a nice graph of cheap easy credit drying up for real estate construction
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Jun 8, 2014 21:26
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Lexicon posted:Prices rose with completions and now prices are rising with no completions? There's no obvious conclusion here to me, other than: wow, the Irish were spectacularly stupid in the run up to 2008. It's amazing how short their memories are.
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Jun 8, 2014 22:08
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Lexicon posted:Prices rose with completions and now prices are rising with no completions? There's no obvious conclusion here to me, other than: wow, the Irish were spectacularly stupid in the run up to 2008. I think I might have mentioned this earlier, but when I was in Dublin back in January the 20/30 somethings in my family that were at that stage where they'd be looking for a house said there was no supply. The sentiment seems to be that prices are relatively high because almost everyone that doesn't own outright is underwater and can't afford to sell. You had asked if I had any data that supports that and I didn't at the time, but there it is, beautifully illustrated. At the same time there are these "ghost estates" which are essentially mini suburbs in various states of completion all over the place. The developers ran out of money and just left them there. Now the Irish are busy giving 90 cents of every dollar they make to the Germans and spending the remaining 10 cents on alcohol. Saltin fucked around with this message at 22:17 on Jun 8, 2014 |
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Jun 8, 2014 22:13
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Saltin posted:I think I might have mentioned this earlier, but when I was in Dublin back in January the 20/30 somethings in my family that were at that stage where they'd be looking for a house said there was no supply. The sentiment seems to be that prices are relatively high because almost everyone that doesn't own outright is underwater and can't afford to sell. You had asked if I had any data that supports that and I didn't at the time, but there it is, beautifully illustrated. Also similar the USA experience they didn't punish the banks in any way either despite all the fraud and lies. Thanks to the implosion foreign investors like Blackrock were able to buy up local companies and utilities for pennies on the dollar. Also lol Snevet posted:I think that's a really relevant point and I see what you're saying. Plentiful credit (and plentiful debt!) seems to be a problem affecting all aspects of society. However, my main point is that in most cases, it's actually more affordable to purchase a home than it is to rent while building equity for yourself in a tangible asset--from a monthly payment perspective. A little bit of disclosure, I am a professional in the financial services industry. It is actually reasonably difficult to qualify for a mortgage in Canada. There are many restrictions and the government continues to impose further restrictions on borrowers as the interest rates continue to dip lower and lower for mortgages so that people can't over extend themselves. Do you mean that institutionally, due to the vested interests of Realtors, banks (mortgage business isn't the most profitable business for banks believe it or not) and investors etc, we force people to purchase homes at a greater risk to themselves? etalian fucked around with this message at 04:39 on Jun 9, 2014 |
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Jun 8, 2014 23:14
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Listen, I know we have a massive problem with easy debt but getting a mortgage is actually really hard and renting is throwing your money away so get that starter house/condo asap and start building a TANGIBLE ASSET. As a finance worker I can tell you that your investment being tangible is very important and makes for a better investment. The system may have its ups and downs but inflation will at least keep the value of these tangible magic cards growing. Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 18:28 on Jun 9, 2014 |
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Jun 9, 2014 18:26
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Saltin posted:I think I might have mentioned this earlier, but when I was in Dublin back in January the 20/30 somethings in my family that were at that stage where they'd be looking for a house said there was no supply. The sentiment seems to be that prices are relatively high because almost everyone that doesn't own outright is underwater and can't afford to sell. You had asked if I had any data that supports that and I didn't at the time, but there it is, beautifully illustrated. Interesting. I've made this point before - but it's my firm belief that the English-speaking peoples of the world in particular have a real problem with property speculation and adulation.
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Jun 9, 2014 18:43
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Lexicon posted:Interesting. I've made this point before - but it's my firm belief that the English-speaking peoples of the world in particular have a real problem with property speculation and adulation. On the other hand, China.
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Jun 9, 2014 18:48
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FrozenVent posted:On the other hand, China. Believe me, I'm not claiming that it's an Anglo-exclusive thing.
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Jun 9, 2014 19:09
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Baronjutter posted:Listen, I know we have a massive problem with easy debt but getting a mortgage is actually really hard and renting is throwing your money away so get that starter house/condo asap and start building a TANGIBLE ASSET. This is the kind of stuff my wife says to me all the time. Her parents had a house really early on in their marriage, so we don't we!
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Jun 9, 2014 19:23
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Does anyone remember back in the 90s how it was considered vulgar to flash around a mobile phone, not only because it was obnoxious to disturb everyone around you but it was considered ostentatious. It seems like the vulgarity of being ostentatious and extravagant is considered a socially acceptable and social norm these days.
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Jun 9, 2014 19:39
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Or cell phones play a completely different roles in society now and are no longer considered ostentatious because they're massively available and having one isn't considered a symbol of trying to look rich and important anymore?
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Jun 9, 2014 19:43
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FrozenVent posted:Or cell phones play a completely different roles in society now and are no longer considered ostentatious because they're massively available and having one isn't considered a symbol of trying to look rich and important anymore? Actually I think it's now just a social norm to be vulgar with a cellphone. Ever seen a table full of friends out for a nice dinner and there is silence because everyone is checking in on foursquare?
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Jun 9, 2014 19:45
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I don't think that's what "vulgar" means.
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Jun 9, 2014 19:49
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Cultural Imperial posted:Actually I think it's now just a social norm to be vulgar with a cellphone. Ever seen a table full of friends out for a nice dinner and there is silence because everyone is checking in on foursquare? Enforcing the "put your loving phone in the pile on silent, if you touch it you pay the whole bill" rule has made group dinners in my friends circle 100% less lovely. Bragging and being ostentatious is absolutely becoming a social norm, though. I blame Facebook, all people use it for is to brag about anything and everything.
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Jun 9, 2014 19:53
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ultimatums and judgement: the height of friendship
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Jun 9, 2014 19:59
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JawKnee posted:ultimatums and judgement: the height of friendship Yeah, really. I have meals with friends, and generally we all talk to each other, but occasionally we have business to attend to or want to check sports scores. It's not like we're busy livetweeting the meal or anything.
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Jun 9, 2014 20:01
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I livestream the entire meal to youtube, and try to get in real close to the open-mouth chewers.
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Jun 9, 2014 20:08
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Baronjutter posted:Serious question: how do we fix this poo poo in the least painful way? How do we deflate the bubble without totally destroying the economy and completing screwing over a vast majority of "home owners" ? Or at least how do we do it in the way that will have the least overall negative effects on society, and then how do we keep it from happening again? Kafka Esq. posted:Jubilee. Steve Keen posted:The broad effects of a Modern Jubilee would be: Michael Hudson is the go to economist for this idea of a debt jubilee which is in general terms a bailout but instead of banks of the people. it is obviously not that simple and cant be hashed through in one post but the link in the quote above and Michael Hudson's latest book The Bubble and Beyond: Fictitious Capital, Debt Deflation and the Global Crisis explains why and how you will have to go about this.
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Jun 9, 2014 20:09
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Kalenn Istarion posted:I'm sure there will be those that disagree with me, but I think the government is taking the right steps for the most part now. A gradual increase of the costs of financing, by doing things like making insurance harder and / or more expensive to get, and forcing banks to take more equity in loans through restricting amortization periods and leverage (meaning more cost). There will eventually come action by BOC, and this is probably the biggest risk. The eventuality of a crash will depend on how measured and careful they are in taking their foot off the gas (low o/n rate). If it's done slowly and he messaging keeps consumers /homebuyers / etc from freaking the gently caress out and flooding the markets, then we will see a period of stagnation, which mean slow nominal increases and slow real declines. If they gently caress this up, we'll see potential nominal decreases outside of the particularly overheated markets, and that's when all the spec money will bail and flood he market, leading to a more painful glut with deeper losses for all involved. My position here has generally been that either of these could be possible but the systems in place ~should~ mitigate the flow through to he rest of he economy, not that a nominal decline is impossible. You would be correct about the disagreement. Here is why your suggestion ("deleveraging") is a bad one: quote:Michael Hudson’s simple phrase that “Debts that can’t be repaid, won’t be repaid” sums up the economic dilemma of our times. This does not involve sanctioning “moral hazard”, since the real moral hazard was in the behaviour of the finance sector in creating this debt in the first place. Most of this debt should never have been created, since all it did was fund disguised Ponzi Schemes that inflated asset values without adding to society’s productivity. Here the irresponsibility—and Moral Hazard—clearly lay with the lenders rather than the borrowers.
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Jun 9, 2014 20:18
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e:nm
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Jun 9, 2014 20:35
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/09/canada-economy-housing-idUSL2N0OQ0HC20140609quote:
Oh that's good. I was getting worried about the economy.
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Jun 9, 2014 20:48
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Saltin posted:Now the Irish are busy giving 90 cents of every dollar they make to the Germans and spending the remaining 10 cents on alcohol. Oh that reminds me, I haven't gotten my last 2 tribute cheques from Ireland. Last month they tried to buy me off with twelve pounds of Kerrygold butter and several cans of a strange 'Guinness' liquid that I guess was recycled motor oil, but that poo poo ain't flying.
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Jun 10, 2014 00:39
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FrozenVent posted:I don't think that's what "vulgar" means. Seeing two kids out on a date texting people instead of talking is pretty vulgar. A mother at a table reading the internet while her kid smashes his poo poo all over is vulgar. Rime posted:Enforcing the "put your loving phone in the pile on silent, if you touch it you pay the whole bill" rule has made group dinners in my friends circle 100% less lovely. We do this with family more than friends but it's really great. In my previous job I made a point of visibly shutting off my phone before client meetings. Mexplosivo posted:You would be correct about the disagreement. "I read this one economists' website and he says stuff I agree with therefore you're debunked" At the of of the post of mine you quoted I specifically mentioned a much more quick and aggressive option. Socialist paradise theories aside, arbitrarily nuking debt would gently caress up the structure of capital markets for years. Killing debt wouldn't gently caress up 'the banks' or whatever straw man bad guy you throw up... It would most hurt the 'average joe' whose pension is comprised at a significant level of investments in structured mortgage and consumer debt.
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Jun 10, 2014 10:50
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^ This is D&D - there is no room for a sober understanding of capital markets here. Kindly remove yourself to BFC or wherever else the dirty capitalists reside while plotting to further enslave the proletariat.
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Jun 10, 2014 13:09
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Kalenn Istarion posted:Seeing two kids out on a date texting people instead of talking is pretty vulgar. Who the gently caress has a pension?
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Jun 10, 2014 15:10
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People with grown up jobs? 
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Jun 10, 2014 15:11
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FrozenVent posted:People with grown up jobs? Oh, right, Canadian thread. The U.S. has pretty much only defined contribution retirement plans anymore.
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Jun 10, 2014 15:20
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FrozenVent posted:People with grown up jobs? A pension is a luxury these days. The dividing line seems to mostly be between private and public sector workers, and increasingly the private sector is getting tired of sweet public service pensions. This is why people like Tim Hudak have a legitimate chance of winning the election in Ontario, and it's exactly the sentiment that got Ford elected as mayor in Toronto. I have a very grown up job with no pension. I have to be satisfied with getting paid a private sector wage, which generally tends to be much better than public and save and invest the difference. So far it's working out well, but loads of people in the same position aren't as diligent, and they definitely are getting jelly. Saltin fucked around with this message at 15:47 on Jun 10, 2014 |
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Jun 10, 2014 15:35
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Saltin posted:A pension is a luxury these days. The dividing line seems to mostly be between private and public sector workers, and increasingly the private sector is getting tired of sweet public service pensions. This is why people like Tim Hudak have a legitimate chance of winning the election in Ontario, and it's exactly the sentiment that got Ford elected as mayor in Toronto. My friends from university all ended up in a pretty diverse set of fields, and have for the most part, done really well since well all graduated in the mid 2000s. Of the portion who work in the private sector - 15 or so people - I know of only one who has a pension (junior VP at a big-5 bank). Obviously this is anecdotal, and I may have incomplete information - but I hardly think this set under represents pension availability. The ones in the public sector do have pensions, of course. Expect this to be an increasingly contentious issue in the decades to come with private vs public sector employees - the former is going to quickly tire of paying the latter for a benefit they themselves largely don't have. That's my prediction anyway.
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Jun 10, 2014 15:46
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Lexicon posted:The ones in the public sector do have pensions, of course. Expect this to be an increasingly contentious issue in the decades to come with private vs public sector employees - the former is going to quickly tire of paying the latter for a benefit they themselves largely don't have. That's my prediction anyway. This is exactly how I feel. The banks, by the way, are one of the few places you can still get a "private" sector pension. There are other examples of course, but the banks employ the most private sector employees with a pension, by far.
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Jun 10, 2014 15:51
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Saltin posted:This is exactly how I feel. The banks, by the way, are one of the few places you can still get a "private" sector pension. There are other examples of course, but the banks employ the most private sector employees with a pension, by far. And the banks do it with YOUR MONEY!!!!! Sorry, I had some crazy bottled up in me that needed to be let out.
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Jun 10, 2014 16:11
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Lexicon posted:My friends from university all ended up in a pretty diverse set of fields, and have for the most part, done really well since well all graduated in the mid 2000s. Of the portion who work in the private sector - 15 or so people - I know of only one who has a pension (junior VP at a big-5 bank). Obviously this is anecdotal, and I may have incomplete information - but I hardly think this set under represents pension availability. Why on earth would you be mad at someone for choosing to defer part of their compensation? Would you be cool with it if someone arbitarily helped themselves to a chunk of your paycheck?
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Jun 10, 2014 16:22
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I was told even 10 years ago I'd probably have to deal with my retirement 100% my self, don't even expect our health system to still be around by then. Been saving and investing like a crazy person. The idea that most people don't have any savings let alone retirement savings and are pinning everything on retiring on their house value is really scary poo poo. Specially since the bubble popping in one way or another has a good chance of happening when the baby boomers all begin to retire en-mass just to totally finish what's left of the system off. And yet I see so many people of my own generation (30 somethings) all clamoring to start to buy a house or a condo because it's what their parents did. It's a "tangible investment". They talk about how the government won't be there for their retirement so they got to own something. If they rent they'll have nothing when they retire!
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Jun 10, 2014 16:28
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