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Munin posted:I was reacting to this post: I have never mentioned Sunnis. You're just adopting mental schemes that apply perfectly to other situations to Syria. The Assad family hasn't descended from a cloud into Syria to rule with an iron fist the people. You have to consider the Sunni with Assad, then there are Sunni who aren't with Assad, and Sunni who are with ISIS. Sunni as a cohese group don't exist, not more than the "Christians" in Europe. They aren't a cohese political movement. Besides, please don't put words in my mouth. Now, as far as my statement goes, bold and smug as it is, it's also rather hard to disprove. I, as everyone else hoped that Syria and the other states of the area would manage to overthrow the dictators and embrace a more open lifestyle, with democratic election, freedom of cult, and so on. As it turns out, the choice right now is between Assad and ISIS, and the whole arab spring has left those that hoped for the better wanting.
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Jul 28, 2014 15:11
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karl fungus posted:How has Tunisia been doing post-revolution? I've heard nothing about them, which I can suppose may be a good thing if it means things calmed down. Refugees from all over Africa and the Middle East board rickety macgyver'd boats on Tunisian shores and either suffocate or drown on their way to Italy. It's pretty loving grim.
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Jul 28, 2014 15:16
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Cippalippus posted:I have never mentioned Sunnis. Look at the post at quoted and look at the post you responded to. Now you might have been glib and just tossed that one off. Now, I did use that to colour in what you were vague about in your other posts. You have been clarifying your stance somewhat since.
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Jul 28, 2014 16:05
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I have to say, I don't think American neocons have any competition in the entire history of the planet for loving up an entire part of the world so thoroughly and completely. Maybe the mongols were worse?
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Jul 28, 2014 17:26
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Cippalippus posted:It's not "apparently" the only thing, it's in the loving facts you obtuse imbecile. The Assad regime has been promoting sectarian violence for 40 years. Mubarak, Gaddafi, all those guys had their families go to Europe and study banking. What did all the Assad's do? They were pushed into every leadership role in the military that they had enough family members to fill, preparing for the day they would have to curb stomp the Sunni's into submission. It is an Alawite regime. Even with the Christians, Druze, etc, they still don't make up 20% of the population, and they're ruling over a population of 70% Sunni's, and trying to be dictatorial about it. With all the fear-mongering they've pushed about what would happen if a single concession was made to be inclusive to Sunni's, and the instant talk of salafists and terror the second someone walked out on the street with a protest sign, it's pretty clear that things were going to take a sectarian tone. And no, the facts aren't on your side. You just take your obscure position and then pretend to speak on behalf of all Europe, or the whole not-US world like 90% of the people you claim to represent wouldn't think you're a dumbass. There's still daily peaceful protests in favor of democracy and inclusion of all sects in the next government, and in every negotiation, the starting point is to remove Assad, and then negotiate with the regime. There's fighting forces 5 times the size of ISIS that are moderate, that don't get anywhere near the same type of coverage because they aren't sexy reporting like beheadings and crucifixions are. You seem to be relying on the "facts" about the
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Jul 28, 2014 17:32
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icantfindaname posted:I have to say, I don't think American neocons have any competition in the entire history of the planet for loving up an entire part of the world so thoroughly and completely. Maybe the mongols were worse? As far as outside powers working on ruining the middle east Neocons were late in the game. The Iraq war just re-enflamed conflict that was baked into place when lines were literally drawn in the sand with the dismantling of the Ottoman empire after WWI.
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Jul 28, 2014 17:39
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Volkerball posted:And no, the facts aren't on your side. You just take your obscure position and then pretend to speak on behalf of all Europe, or the whole not-US world like 90% of the people you claim to represent wouldn't think you're a dumbass. There's still daily peaceful protests in favor of democracy and inclusion of all sects in the next government, and in every negotiation, the starting point is to remove Assad, and then negotiate with the regime. There's fighting forces 5 times the size of ISIS that are moderate, that don't get anywhere near the same type of coverage because they aren't sexy reporting like beheadings and crucifixions are. You seem to be relying on the "facts" about the The other forces aren't getting reported on because they haven't been doing much over the last month. Last I heard they are consolidating the gains they've made and show no intent to move out. Meanwhile ISIS has rapidly been expanding their territory and winning battles across both Syria and Iraq. Hell they're standing on the loving doorstep of Baghdad while fielding a force 1/40 the size of the Iraqi army. It isn't just hype, their success is loving scary. 
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Jul 28, 2014 17:41
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Bip Roberts posted:As far as outside powers working on ruining the middle east Neocons were late in the game. The Iraq war just re-enflamed conflict that was baked into place when lines were literally drawn in the sand with the dismantling of the Ottoman empire after WWI. I would say the neocon crusade against Islamism and unquestioning support of Israel did a lot to destabilize things over the last ~35 years. Iraq 2 was not the only mistake. I think it's a stretch to say things would be this bad or even nearly this bad without neocon policy over that time.
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Jul 28, 2014 17:44
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Those savage mussulmen can't be trusted and need a strong leader to keep 'em in line, says I 
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Jul 28, 2014 17:44
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Bip Roberts posted:As far as outside powers working on ruining the middle east Neocons were late in the game. The Iraq war just re-enflamed conflict that was baked into place when lines were literally drawn in the sand with the dismantling of the Ottoman empire after WWI. The Ottoman empire was facing internal collapse long before WW1 (and indeed there were rebellions and uprisings on a fairly regular basis). It's fairly likely that those ethnic conflicts would still have existed even barring the intervention of the West (probably no Israel though).
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Jul 28, 2014 17:47
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Xoidanor posted:The other forces aren't getting reported on because they haven't been doing much over the last month. Last I heard they are consolidating the gains they've made and show no intent to move out. Meanwhile ISIS has rapidly been expanding their territory and winning battles across both Syria and Iraq. Hell they're standing on the loving doorstep of Baghdad while fielding a force 1/40 the size of the Iraqi army. It isn't just hype, their success is loving scary. ISIS was the most reported on rebel group when they had less than 5,000 soldiers, no territory, and were just dicking around with the Kurds up north. It's not a new thing.
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Jul 28, 2014 17:50
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icantfindaname posted:I have to say, I don't think American neocons have any competition in the entire history of the planet for loving up an entire part of the world so thoroughly and completely. Maybe the mongols were worse? Please be mindful of your betters at leaving messes behind, the British Empire.
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Jul 28, 2014 17:50
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What were the circumstances behind Lebanese democracy imploding with the Civil War and all that? Was it ever stable, or was it provoked from outside? That seems to me it would be the best case study for what's wrong with the middle east
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Jul 28, 2014 17:55
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karl fungus posted:How has Tunisia been doing post-revolution? I've heard nothing about them, which I can suppose may be a good thing if it means things calmed down. Pretty good, actually. http://www.unwomen.org/lo/news/stories/2014/2/tunisias-new-constitution 
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Jul 28, 2014 18:02
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I find it hilarious that a European came in professing to know more about the region than everyone else in the thread because he went on vacation there once and he proceeded to be incredibly insulting and condescending to a Syrian poster who is fluent in Arabic and has family still inside Syria. If he was a regular reader of this thread, he'd know which one.
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Jul 28, 2014 18:21
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Flaky posted:Ummm yes? Gaddhafi's ouster was a pretty serious boon for Boko Haram, who were responsible for kidnapping those Nigerian schoolgirls? From whom no-one has heard for months, the Nigerian government certainly hasn't returned them. paragon1 posted:Last time I checked Nigeria isn't in Libya. Flaky posted:May as well be for how representative the lines on the map are of the reality on the ground. As far as I can tell, Boko Haram operates exclusively in northern Nigeria. How far is that from Libya?  Roughly the same distance as a drive from Barcelona to Moscow. (Except that drive doesn't go through the middle of the Sahara...) Googling around for Gaddafi-Boko Haram connections, the only thing I could find was this rather dubious source, which quotes Gaddafi as supporting Boko Haram against the Nigerian government. If you have a better source, I'd be very happy to read it!
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Jul 28, 2014 18:32
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Let me tell you my enlightened opinion on Syria based on my brief vacation visiting the Roman ruins in Palmyra and Apamea: Sunnis are perfidious baby-eaters that are unfit to rule an olive grove, and they must be crushed underfoot like rabid dogs.
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Jul 28, 2014 18:35
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I spent a week in Greece on vacation in 2004, let me tell you my expert opinion their economic situation in 2014:
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Jul 28, 2014 18:37
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Sergg posted:I find it hilarious that a European came in professing to know more about the region than everyone else in the thread because he went on vacation there once and he proceeded to be incredibly insulting and condescending to a Syrian poster who is fluent in Arabic and has family still inside Syria. If he was a regular reader of this thread, he'd know which one. On the one hand, you are correct in that his stance hasn't been particularly good, on the other hand, this is an incredible pompous post and you sound like an rear end.
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Jul 28, 2014 19:04
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Sergg posted:I find it hilarious that a European came in professing to know more about the region than everyone else in the thread because he went on vacation there once and he proceeded to be incredibly insulting and condescending to a Syrian poster who is fluent in Arabic and has family still inside Syria. If he was a regular reader of this thread, he'd know which one. What's even funnier is that I'll turn out to be right again, just like when a few months ago this thread was about downplaying Chechens, Qaedists and other Salafi groups just like some local folklore. Volkerball posted:And no, the facts aren't on your side. You just take your obscure position and then pretend to speak on behalf of all Europe, or the whole not-US world like 90% of the people you claim to represent wouldn't think you're a dumbass. There's still daily peaceful protests in favor of democracy and inclusion of all sects in the next government, and in every negotiation, the starting point is to remove Assad, and then negotiate with the regime. There's fighting forces 5 times the size of ISIS that are moderate, that don't get anywhere near the same type of coverage because they aren't sexy reporting like beheadings and crucifixions are. You seem to be relying on the "facts" about the What? I speak just for myself. Some people in Switzerland will probably prefer an american solution without Assad, but we have no laws against being wrong.
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Jul 28, 2014 19:05
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Cippalippus posted:What's even funnier is that I'll turn out to be right again, just like when a few months ago this thread was about downplaying Chechens, Qaedists and other Salafi groups just like some local folklore.
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Jul 28, 2014 19:12
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When you're defending the guy who is dropping nerve gas on the suburbs of his own capitol city as "the good guy" then maybe it's time to reexamine your priorities. In other news: It's confirmed that Division 17 has been essentially wiped out. There was accidental friendly fire and some SCUDs allegedly hit the base while it was being attacked instead of landing on its attackers. Videos of the aftermath and the massacre of the defenders has completely shocked the pro-Assad domestic media and audience. In northern Iraq, the al-Obeidi and al-Jabouri tribes in Kurdistan are forming militias to fight ISIS. Here's a post-mortem account of the failed Iraqi attempt to retake Tikrit: http://www.matthewaid.com/post/93014043506/the-iraqi-military-disaster-at-tikrit-a-post-mortem
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Jul 28, 2014 19:25
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Any videos of Division 17 on hand?
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Jul 28, 2014 19:27
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With the news, what are the odds that Assad will continue to stay in power?
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Jul 28, 2014 19:33
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New ISIS video with some English subs  https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=t4cXtVeH_6A
Radio Prune fucked around with this message at 20:27 on Jul 28, 2014 |
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Jul 28, 2014 19:56
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Carrier posted:On the one hand, you are correct in that his stance hasn't been particularly good, on the other hand, this is an incredible pompous post and you sound like an rear end. It's just a simple statement of fact, though? That is exactly what he did.
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Jul 28, 2014 20:23
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Sergg posted:When you're defending the guy who is dropping nerve gas on the suburbs of his own capitol city as "the good guy" then maybe it's time to reexamine your priorities. The best guy is not necessarily a good guy. Not sure why people have so much difficulty with this distinction.
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Jul 28, 2014 20:26
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Radio Prune posted:New ISIS video with some English subs https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=t4cXtVeH_6A Oh god this one has those mass executions at the end
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Jul 28, 2014 20:27
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Can someone willing to hate humanity more than I do explain what all goes on in the video? I'm curious but I don't have it in me to watch.
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Jul 28, 2014 20:40
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Cippalippus posted:What's even funnier is that I'll turn out to be right again, just like when a few months ago this thread was about downplaying Chechens, Qaedists and other Salafi groups just like some local folklore. Btw, I'm curious why you keep raising a stable regime under the iron fist of Assad and the current unrest as the two current day hypothetical options. The current breakdown of the state in Syria is the consequence of the failure of Assad to deal with the social, political and economic tensions in his country. His regime and policies were never long term stable as the current civil war and the events leading up to it amply demonstrate. The failure of his system and did not inevitably lead to the rise of violent Islamist extremists taking over a large chunk of the country but his handling of the escalating crisis did make it very likely. His tacit ceasefire with ISIS for as long as they kept attacking his domestic opponents also encouraged their rise. I wonder how he feels about that policy now.
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Jul 28, 2014 20:49
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Kilometers Davis posted:Can someone willing to hate humanity more than I do explain what all goes on in the video? I'm curious but I don't have it in me to watch. It's a full spread of Islamist speeches, technicals, blowing up mosques, drive-bys, mass executions and a suicide bombing. I really hope every single ISIS gently caress ends up as a ventilated corpse.
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Jul 28, 2014 20:55
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Munin posted:Btw, I'm curious why you keep raising a stable regime under the iron fist of Assad and the current unrest as the two current day hypothetical options. No dictatorship in the style of Assad is built to last very long, and actually the Baa'thist Syria lasted for a quite long time. This said, regimes like Assad's Syria are best brought down with international appeasement rather than with brutal force; I'm thinking about Spain or Portugal, or several South/Central American states. Instead, the american policy of always backing Israel has had the long lasting effect of rooting Assad in his post. The Assads used this card to strenghten their grip on power, being given a convenient and always ready scarecrow. Regimes like those are built on the premise of an outside evil force prying on the nation. There was probably a chance in 2000 to open negotiations with Syria, but all went into the shitter when someone had the bright idea of stopping that all. As far as options go, I don't think that there are other alternatives now. I do think that the guy isn't able to deal with the current situation; I also think, however, that the world needs a deus ex machina to build a credible alternative.
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Jul 28, 2014 21:02
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icantfindaname posted:I have to say, I don't think American neocons have any competition in the entire history of the planet for loving up an entire part of the world so thoroughly and completely. Maybe the mongols were worse?
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Jul 28, 2014 21:03
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Radio Prune posted:Oh god this one has those mass executions at the end More than one, there at least four separate ones in the last couple of minutes, its a complete bloodbath. I was trying to keep a rough headcount of victims until about 33:40 when I just gave up A screencap for anyone who doesn't want to see people begging for their life before being shot in a ditch That's a lot of bodies.
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Jul 28, 2014 21:08
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They are so big and bad. Look at me, I've got a rifle and I'm gonna shoot some mans. Scum of the earth.
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Jul 28, 2014 21:12
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Sergg posted:
Link? ed nvm http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/25/us-syria-crisis-raqqa-idUSKBN0FU2A320140725
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Jul 28, 2014 21:20
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Jesus that last ISIS video is awful. The executions by the river seem almost comedic, with the one guy just standing there holding the flag.
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Jul 28, 2014 21:43
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The 17th division was 50 dudes? That seems a little undermanned
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Jul 28, 2014 22:00
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PleasingFungus posted:As far as I can tell, Boko Haram operates exclusively in northern Nigeria. How far is that from Libya? They're also active in Cameroon, but that's the wrong direction. They kidnapped the deputy prime minister's wife just yesterday. Torpor posted:The 17th division was 50 dudes? That seems a little undermanned There were several hundred. Most soldiers successfully fled to other bases once the attack started, but about 50 were ambushed and killed (including the commanding brigadier general). Several dozen or so who stayed behind to fight and allow the others cover were also killed.
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Jul 28, 2014 22:03
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50 dudes is just some stragglers left over from the crushing defeat and subsequent retreat of the 17th Division. Probably ISIS didn't wanna spend more time digging them out at the base and offered them safe passage if they left their positions then ambushed them down the road. Here is a huge trove of pictures from the ISIS fight for Division 17 HQ, including showing off all the captured gear like guns, ammo, artillery, tanks, etc. http://justpaste.it/Division17 Can anyone translate this? It appears to be a captured document from a dead Syrian soldier  http://i.imgur.com/ftACtTV.jpg
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Jul 28, 2014 22:10
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