Israel Palestine Megathread: Chickenshitgate

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Flowers For Algeria: Dec 3, 2005; I humbly offer my services as forum inquisitor. There is absolutely no way I would abuse this power in any way.

Womacks-JP-23 posted:

Israel would have immediately canceled the ceasefire and responded with absolute overwhelming force to get him back and would not have wasted hours while the soldier gets further away.

It's fairly obvious that it happened at 9:30 because that's the exact time they responded with the huge amount of force they are currently employing.

Well, there's also a certain likelihood that the IDF command was not immediately aware of the soldier's abduction, or presumed him dead for a few hours.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:09

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# ? Jun 5, 2024 05:24

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.608372#.U9t8wwikcdg.twitter

So this is interesting. Israel actually wanted a way longer ceasefire than Hamas did (they only wanted 24 hours), but they wanted to remain in place in Gaza and continue to destroy tunnels. Starting to sound like an occupation.

Also,

quote:

The American official stated that at that point on Tuesday, Kerry�s talks with the Qatari foreign minister managed to make headway. The Qataris, believing that crunch time was approaching, stopped defending Hamas and began putting real, and heavy pressure on Meshal to accept the proposal.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:10

Womacks-JP-23: May 15, 2013

Flowers For Algeria posted:

Well, there's also a certain likelihood that the IDF command was not immediately aware of the soldier's abduction, or presumed him dead for a few hours.

That's possible but I think it's unlikely. The rest of the soldier's brigade would have known immediately that his body was not with them. This would have been reported rapidly.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:11

Loving Africa Chaps: Dec 3, 2007; We had not left it yet, but when I would wake in the night, I would lie, listening, homesick for it already.

From the guardian

quote:

The abducted soldier has been named as 2nd lieutenant Hadar Goldin, aged 23 from Kfar Saba, Israel Radio reports.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:11

Rocks: Dec 30, 2011

So the ceasefire is basically kaput now right?

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:12

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Rocks posted:

So the ceasefire is basically kaput now right?

Yeah, pretty much.

I wonder if this changes Israel's calculus about wanting to leave Hamas in place.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:14

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Rocks posted:

So the ceasefire is basically kaput now right?

Supposedly there's delegations heading back to Egypt like, tomorrow, but yeah. This iteration of the 72 hour deal is basically dead.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:15

Womacks-JP-23: May 15, 2013

Has Hamas or another group confirmed the capture yet?

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:17

ReV VAdAUL: Oct 3, 2004; I'm WILD about
WILDMAN

Xandu posted:

I wonder if this changes Israel's calculus about wanting to leave Hamas in place.

What indicated Israel desired to leave then in place?

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:21

OMFG PTSD LOL PBUH: Sep 9, 2001

Womacks-JP-23 posted:

That's possible but I think it's unlikely. The rest of the soldier's brigade would have known immediately that his body was not with them. This would have been reported rapidly.

That's.. Really not how personnel accountability works in the middle of a conflict. Are you familiar with the term fog of war? Are you familiar with war? Controlled chaos is the unachievable goal in armed conflict, and it doesn't lend itself well to perfect information flowing perfectly quickly. Ever.

For instance, first we were told he was high ranking, then a Col, now a 2lt.

This poo poo evolves so quickly that information is often perishable as soon as it's learned.

C'mon man.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:21

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

ReV VAdAUL posted:

What indicated Israel desired to leave then in place?

They really want a weakened Hamas more than anything else (except maybe Fatah back in power) in Gaza. A power vacuum or someone else replacing them would definitely be worse.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/07/31/bibi-wants-hamas-to-stay.html

quote:

"The goal hasn't changed. It's to restore sustained quiet and peace...not to dismantle the whole terror infrastructure," and go after every last rocket. "But that could change," the official said.

quote:

�Reform or regime change, that�s the central question,� he added. �An unanchored, unmoored, lawless Gaza in the hands of something like ISIS or Islamic Jihad, this proposition would be fundamentally worse than the one we inhabit and inherit now.�

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:24

Womacks-JP-23: May 15, 2013

Obama Africanus posted:

Are you familiar with war?

Fought in one in Afghanistan in 2001-2002

There's no way it would have taken the IDF 3 hours to find out a soldier was missing.

Obama Africanus posted:

For instance, first we were told he was high ranking, then a Col, now a 2lt.

Who said that?

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:25

Loving Africa Chaps: Dec 3, 2007; We had not left it yet, but when I would wake in the night, I would lie, listening, homesick for it already.

Womacks-JP-23 posted:

Who said that?

Here you go

Xandu posted:

Looks like 2 Israeli soldiers dead and one missing.

Volkerball posted:

Hamas is saying it's a high profile officer, but of course, they would regardless.

Womacks-JP-23 posted:

IDF says soldiers were killed and one taken prisoner at 9:30am local time, before reports of IDF shelling in the immediate area.

Xandu posted:

Not sure it matters, capturing a soldier just before the start of a ceasefire pretty much forced Israel's hand.

Yeah, unless they somehow didn't know it had happened, they wouldn't have waited so long to respond.

edit: Apparently might be a colonel

Loving Africa Chaps posted:

From the guardian

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:28

euphronius: Feb 18, 2009

They could negotiate for his release
Or you know kill a bunch of civilians.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:29

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Womacks-JP-23 posted:

Has Hamas or another group confirmed the capture yet?

Abu Marzouk with Hamas did, but 3 others said they have no information. Interesting theory: Hamas wants to keep the soldier considered "missing" to try and negotiate a ceasefire without using him as a bargaining chip. Then they have him in hand later when they announce they have him.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:29

Womacks-JP-23: May 15, 2013

Loving Africa Chaps posted:

Here you go

When I meant who said that I didn't mean SA posters.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:30

OMFG PTSD LOL PBUH: Sep 9, 2001

Womacks-JP-23 posted:

Fought in one in Afghanistan in 2001-2002

There's no way it would have taken the IDF 3 hours to find out a soldier was missing.

Who said that?

Me too! And a bunch more times after that!

So you should know just how stupid poo poo gets in the heat of things. Now amplify that retardedness by having a conscript force of reservists, and throw in a complex attack with a suicide bomber and a kidnapping of an officer.

That's a recipe for any and all information flow to go totally pear shaped in no time.

C'mon man.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:32

euphronius: Feb 18, 2009

There is no good evidence a suicide bomber was used that I see. May want to wait on that one.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:33

illrepute: Dec 30, 2009; by XyloJW

It's definitely possible there was a suicide bomber, though it'd be the first since Hamas disavowed their use like... gosh, eight years ago now?

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:35

itsgotmetoo: Oct 5, 2006; by zen death robot

I don't know how it is in the IDF, but it always took 3 hours to do just about anything in the US Army. Probably one of the only generalizations/stereotypes I found to be true more often than not.

Edit: Also rear echelon, so I don't know how it was in combat units.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:35

OMFG PTSD LOL PBUH: Sep 9, 2001

Fair enough. We're all trying to G-2 a war via twitter from thousands of miles away. Odds are, none of us have even the slightest hint of truth as to what's really going on right now.

Fog of war. It's why the U.S. invests so heavily in lessons learned and historians and poo poo. Parsing actual information from a war is hard work if you've got access, know how, and the ability. We've got none of these things, so yeah- you're right, the suicide bomber thing may not be true. We'll have to wait and see.

But my overarching theme here is that we don't actually know, and there's a better than good chance that the IDF command had a hard as gently caress time figuring out what was going on as well.

For what it's worth these problems I describe are likely much much worse for the Hamas side of this conflict.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:40

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Holy poo poo. Some reports circulating around that the kidnapped soldier may be related to Ya'alon.

http://www.channel4.com/news/gaza-israeli-soldier-british-captured-hamas-ceasefire

Edit:

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:40

Womacks-JP-23: May 15, 2013

illrepute posted:

It's definitely possible there was a suicide bomber, though it'd be the first since Hamas disavowed their use like... gosh, eight years ago now?

Except they took that back and decided to threaten more suicide attacks, 3 weeks ago.

http://www.jpost.com/Operation-Protective-Edge/WATCH-Hamas-steps-up-psychological-warfare-threatens-suicide-attacks-rockets-in-Hebrew-362235

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:41

Panzeh: Nov 27, 2006; "..The high ground"

Obama Africanus posted:

Fair enough. We're all trying to G-2 a war via twitter from thousands of miles away. Odds are, none of us have even the slightest hint of truth as to what's really going on right now.

Fog of war. It's why the U.S. invests so heavily in lessons learned and historians and poo poo. Parsing actual information from a war is hard work if you've got access, know how, and the ability. We've got none of these things, so yeah- you're right, the suicide bomber thing may not be true. We'll have to wait and see.

But my overarching theme here is that we don't actually know, and there's a better than good chance that the UDF command had a hard as gently caress time figuring out what was going on as well.

For what it's worth these problems I describe are likely much much worse for the Hamas side of this conflict.

Yeah, you're right about that. I imagine it's not going to be easy sorting this out even once it's all over, too.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:41

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/212444

Arabic statement from Qassam brigades. Seems odd that they don't mention the captured soldier, even to deny it.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:42

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

So, uh, when I went to bed, the ceasefire hadn't started yet, and when I wake up I see it's already hosed. That's pretty depressing, if I'm being honest.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:44

Servetus: Apr 1, 2010

Xandu posted:

http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/212444

Arabic statement from Qassam brigades. Seems odd that they don't mention the captured soldier, even to deny it.

With the power out and the state of communications in Gaza I'd be surprised if anyone in Hamas except the ones who captured the soldier knows what's going on.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:46

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Israel refusing to resume negotiations in Egypt, presumably until the soldier situation gets sorted out.

http://gate.ahram.org.eg/News/520522.aspx

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:47

Parpy: Oct 23, 2009; Ducklings have been known to imprint on, and imitate, species in close vicinity -- especially cats and dogs.

~SMcD

I wonder if Hamas made a video of it like they often do. Early morning sun shifts shadows noticeably between one hour and the next. Could probably get a good idea of the time. The sun's position and buildings' heights are known, so video may tell, if it's released

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:47

Sappo: Apr 6, 2002; Can't stop the rock!

Xandu posted:

I'm definitely not defending a bombing campaign that seems to have killed 50 people in a few hours.

But I am okay with Israel abandoning the ceasefire to get back their captured soldier. That part seems totally reasonable to me, even if their way of going about it is overkill.

They're not trying to get him back though. Given the existence of their stated doctrines and the expected outcomes of "giant fuckoff bombing campaign around where the capture presumably took place", they're trying to kill him before Hamas hides him somewhere secure and keeps him as a PoW to exchange in negotiations.

Like, "recovering a soldier" would expect like, special forces insertions and such. Giant fuckoff bombs aren't going to discriminate and kill just the guards holding a soldier hostage so he can run free.

If they were trying to recover him that would be one thing. It's pretty obvious that that is not the thing they are actually attempting to do. They are trying to kill him off so they don't have to deal with the political consequences of him being held as a PoW. Which is, really, just spectacularly vile.

Sappo fucked around with this message at 13:52 on Aug 1, 2014

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:48

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

The White House called the capture "barbaric" and "outrageous," and accused Hamas of using the cease fire as cover FWIW.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:51

Torka: Jan 5, 2008

Taking a soldier prisoner in a warzone is "barbaric"? :psyduck:

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:52

CSM: Jan 29, 2014; 56th Motorized Infantry 'Mariupol' Brigade
Seh' die Welt in Trummern liegen

Obama Africanus posted:

I sincerely think you don't "get" this whole war thing.

Obama Africanus posted:

That's.. Really not how personnel accountability works in the middle of a conflict. Are you familiar with the term fog of war? Are you familiar with war? Controlled chaos is the unachievable goal in armed conflict, and it doesn't lend itself well to perfect information flowing perfectly quickly. Ever.

For instance, first we were told he was high ranking, then a Col, now a 2lt.

This poo poo evolves so quickly that information is often perishable as soon as it's learned.

C'mon man.

Obama Africanus posted:

Me too! And a bunch more times after that!

So you should know just how stupid poo poo gets in the heat of things. Now amplify that retardedness by having a conscript force of reservists, and throw in a complex attack with a suicide bomber and a kidnapping of an officer.

That's a recipe for any and all information flow to go totally pear shaped in no time.

C'mon man.

No, but seriously man. Thanks for coming over from Goons In Platoons to educate us on this stuff. We civilians just don't know any better over here.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:53

Torka: Jan 5, 2008

GiP's thread for discussing this conflict got closed so we should probably expect more leakage over here

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:55

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/01/uk-mideast-gaza-saudi-idUKKBN0G142J20140801 posted:

(Reuters) - Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah criticised international inaction on Friday over Israel's offensive in Gaza, which he described as involving mass slaughter and "war crimes against humanity", in a speech read out on his behalf on state television.

"This (international) community which has observed silently what is happening in the whole region, was indifferent to what is happening, as if what is happening is not its concern. Silence that has no justification," he said in his speech.

He also said terrorism was threatening strife across the Arab and Muslim world and called on the region's leaders and religious scholars to prevent Islam from being hijacked by militants.

Guess he's too old to be on TV these days, but interesting timing.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:55

emanresu tnuocca: Sep 2, 2011; by Athanatos

Volkerball posted:

Holy poo poo. Some reports circulating around that the kidnapped soldier may be related to Ya'alon.

http://www.channel4.com/news/gaza-israeli-soldier-british-captured-hamas-ceasefire

Edit:

Dunno whether those reports are true or not but according to Ynet this is a photo of Liran Adir who was announced as one of the casualties earlier today, it's not the captive soldier.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:55

itsgotmetoo: Oct 5, 2006; by zen death robot

Obama Africanus posted:

Fair enough. We're all trying to G-2 a war via twitter from thousands of miles away. Odds are, none of us have even the slightest hint of truth as to what's really going on right now.

Fog of war. It's why the U.S. invests so heavily in lessons learned and historians and poo poo. Parsing actual information from a war is hard work if you've got access, know how, and the ability. We've got none of these things, so yeah- you're right, the suicide bomber thing may not be true. We'll have to wait and see.

But my overarching theme here is that we don't actually know, and there's a better than good chance that the IDF command had a hard as gently caress time figuring out what was going on as well.

For what it's worth these problems I describe are likely much much worse for the Hamas side of this conflict.

Yeah, I was agreeing with you. My point was that even with certainty in their information, the bureaucracy of a military organization can take a long time to start actually moving.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:56

illrepute: Dec 30, 2009; by XyloJW

Womacks-JP-23 posted:

Except they took that back and decided to threaten more suicide attacks, 3 weeks ago.

http://www.jpost.com/Operation-Protective-Edge/WATCH-Hamas-steps-up-psychological-warfare-threatens-suicide-attacks-rockets-in-Hebrew-362235

They abandoned the tactic because the barrier walls severely restricted freedom of movement such that it became impractical, so you'll have to forgive me for viewing their threats dubiously.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 13:59

Loving Africa Chaps: Dec 3, 2007; We had not left it yet, but when I would wake in the night, I would lie, listening, homesick for it already.

Xandu posted:

Guess he's too old to be on TV these days, but interesting timing.

What's saudi arabia been doing to help? it was interesting in that al jazeera video on the shelling of shujayea how many people's first reaction was to condemn the other arab nations for not doing anything

# ? Aug 1, 2014 14:00

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# ? Jun 5, 2024 05:24

illrepute: Dec 30, 2009; by XyloJW

Loving Africa Chaps posted:

What's saudi arabia been doing to help? it was interesting in that al jazeera video on the shelling of shujayea how many people's first reaction was to condemn the other arab nations for not doing anything

Saudi Arabia doesn't give a poo poo at all about Palestinians. They're one of the worst abusers of human rights in the Middle East and their presence on the Human Rights Council is a damning indictment of the United Nations. Israel and Saudi Arabia have been working behind closed doors repeatedly over the years to thwart Iran and their cooperation is an open secret. Abdullah probably made the statement because he couldn't find any more excuses not to.

# ? Aug 1, 2014 14:03

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