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mobby_6kl posted:Wait, what? Was he into watersports or something? Sub-Saharan Africa: The darker side of watersports
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Aug 5, 2014 22:21
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This seems to really be picking up speed in urban areas. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ebola-outbreak-could-be-much-worse-than-thought/ quote:JOHANNESBURG, South Africa -- The worst outbreak of the deadly Ebola virus in history could actually be much worse than the official death toll reflects. Already, the World Health Organization says 887 people have died, but a top doctor working at the heart of the outbreak in West Africa says many cases are going unreported.
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Aug 6, 2014 08:09
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Well yes, that's what the WHO have already warned for the last couple of weeks. People aren't going to the medical authorities, they're hiding relatives or running away, which then results in it transmitting to more people and the medical authorities losing control of the situation.
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Aug 6, 2014 08:59
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So... what happens if this becomes completely uncontainable? Because it's really looking like that's imminent. I severely doubt it'll pick up steam in the first world, but if this starts spreading through all of West Africa... where does it stop? Sheng-Ji Yang fucked around with this message at 09:16 on Aug 6, 2014 |
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Aug 6, 2014 09:14
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:So... what happens if this becomes completely uncontainable? Because it's really looking like that's imminent. Imagine if a bunch of infected Africans make it to Guangzhou or one of the other African outposts in China. The disease will spread like wildfire and we will get to witness first hand how effective extremely authoritarian rules are at stopping the spread of disease.
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Aug 6, 2014 09:21
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on the left posted:Imagine if a bunch of infected Africans make it to Guangzhou or one of the other African outposts in China. The disease will spread like wildfire and we will get to witness first hand how effective extremely authoritarian rules are at stopping the spread of disease. That has been one of the conspiracy theories in regards to the Ebola outbreak, that it has already gone to China. The theory is that the Bubonic plague outbreak last month in China where just the 1 person caught it yet they sealed the whole city off was an Ebola patient. Zero basis for the theory though, but it was very odd to seal off a city of 100,000 for a disease that is now easily treated and killed.
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Aug 6, 2014 09:31
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I am extremely surprised that only MSF is basically treating Ebola at this point. Where the hell is the WHO/CDC/Red Cross, etc? I can see how they expected the outbreak to die down eventually, but its obvious that this is a potential (sub)continent wide epidemic, which has the potential to spread to other areas. So why aren't western governments and organizations stepping in to lend a hand; at this point, they have to see the danger and panic even a limited* outbreak in NYC or Paris or Shanghai would have. *Limited in the sense that it would be contained quickly thanks to modern medical practice and fewer superstitions/lack of education like those driving the outbreak in West Africa. But the public would surely panic and there might need to be closers of stadiums/schools for a while depending on what happens; the economic cost could be huge, even if the number of cases is tiny.
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Aug 6, 2014 09:34
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Apparently in Liberia people are just dumping the bodies in the street.  http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/05/us-health-ebola-africa-idUSKBN0G51VF20140805 Also, shocking no one, quarantines are not being enforced http://www.economist.com/blogs/baobab/2014/08/containing-ebola-outbreak EDIT: A Nigerian nurse just passed away, becoming the country's second victim http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-06/nigerian-nurse-dies-of-ebola-as-5-others-confirmed-with-disease.html Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 13:17 on Aug 6, 2014 |
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Aug 6, 2014 13:11
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More importantly, although outside Africa the Saudi who had a hemorrhagic infection has died from it. It was suspected to be Ebola given he had been in Liberia recently, although rather worryingly the Saudi's have been trying to play down that it could be Ebola. Hopefully they have isolated everyone he was in close contact with, but given their attitude to it and the fact they have not said they are, it doesn't appear to be the case.
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Aug 6, 2014 13:31
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Slaan posted:I am extremely surprised that only MSF is basically treating Ebola at this point. Where the hell is the WHO/CDC/Red Cross, etc? I can see how they expected the outbreak to die down eventually, but its obvious that this is a potential (sub)continent wide epidemic, which has the potential to spread to other areas. So why aren't western governments and organizations stepping in to lend a hand; at this point, they have to see the danger and panic even a limited* outbreak in NYC or Paris or Shanghai would have. CDC and WHO have people on the ground, but they don't really have the manpower to be treating it.
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Aug 6, 2014 13:52
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Xandu posted:CDC and WHO have people on the ground, but they don't really have the manpower to be treating it. There needs to be a well funded, equipped, and massive response at this point. Aid workers are leaving because they do not feel safe, and given that they are chased away with machetes and their compatriots are not always observing proper procedure and getting them infected, its not irrational.
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Aug 6, 2014 14:00
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WoodrowSkillson posted:There needs to be a well funded, equipped, and massive response at this point. Aid workers are leaving because they do not feel safe, and given that they are chased away with machetes and their compatriots are not always observing proper procedure and getting them infected, its not irrational. The US is sending 50 specialists over, but that's really a drop in the ocean with the numbers involved. Really the only people who could handle it would be a modern military preferably a few chemical warfare specialist regiments to back up as many medical specialists as can be sent. The WHO is meeting today / tomorrow about this and I wouldn't be surprised if that isn't what they ask for as well as declaring it a global health issue. Also the number of cases in Nigeria is increasing, and now stands at 8 just from infection from Patrick Sawyer, meaning the R0 number in that case is 8 which is seriously alarming and well beyond Ebola's norm; and points to the fact this possibly isn't just spreading via swapping bodily fluids unless all the doctors and nurses didn't wash themselves at all after treating him.
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Aug 6, 2014 15:02
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ukle posted:Also the number of cases in Nigeria is increasing, and now stands at 8 just from infection from Patrick Sawyer, meaning the R0 number in that case is 8 which is seriously alarming and well beyond Ebola's norm; and points to the fact this possibly isn't just spreading via swapping bodily fluids unless all the doctors and nurses didn't wash themselves at all after treating him. Considering he straight up pissed on people while thrashing around in a rage, his case is a bit different then normal.
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Aug 6, 2014 15:04
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WoodrowSkillson posted:Considering he straight up pissed on people while thrashing around in a rage, his case is a bit different then normal. That shouldn't have caused infection though, unless they had cuts on where the urine came into contact, or he was spraying it into their mouths. The rate this is growing has been pointing that there maybe something different going on than normal bodily fluid transmission, and some of the language the WHO and the CDC have been using since early July indicates they are thinking that's a possibility as well.
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Aug 6, 2014 15:11
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ukle posted:That shouldn't have caused infection though, unless they had cuts on where the urine came into contact, or he was spraying it into their mouths. The rate this is growing has been pointing that there maybe something different going on than normal bodily fluid transmission, and some of the language the WHO and the CDC have been using since early July indicates they are thinking that's a possibility as well. What language specifically? If it was airborne cases would have exploded far, far faster then they have.
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Aug 6, 2014 15:19
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Maybe urine came into contact with their eyes?
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Aug 6, 2014 15:21
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Kurtofan posted:Maybe urine came into contact with their eyes? They also were treating him as a malaria case until they went to go inform him of his status, whereupon he went into his rage. I do not think they were all in hazmat suits when they went to do this. Ebola has always been possible to spread via aerosol droplets, which is why ritual washing of the dead causes so many infections. However the wind blowing over a dead body will not spread the disease, nor will just breathing into the air spread the virus around. The possible risk is that this strain is more able to spread via fomite contact (inanimate objects), but given the haphazard response to this outbreak, that's hard to figure out.
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Aug 6, 2014 15:47
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So right now ebola follows some sort of bat-random critter-primate vector cycle that in West Africa is bad but contained enough that the victims die before they can walk far enough to spread it. If it gets released in the US (and I'm not going conspiracy crazy with the two doctors brought to Atlanta), I wonder how the virus would behave with Western Hemisphere animals and none of the (unknown) natural controls that have mostly kept the virus in check in West Africa. Given the size of the US population, there's bound to be somebody coming back home from Lagos who has a pet spider monkey and a frog pond in the backyard...
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Aug 6, 2014 15:53
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http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/196/Supplement_2/S142.full Decent article/study on transmission, as of 2007.
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Aug 6, 2014 15:59
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WoodrowSkillson posted:http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/196/Supplement_2/S142.full This is a new strain isn't though? It might be more robust and contagious. Furthermore, the more case the more likely it could mutate into something more contagious.
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Aug 6, 2014 16:35
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ukle posted:That has been one of the conspiracy theories in regards to the Ebola outbreak, that it has already gone to China. The theory is that the Bubonic plague outbreak last month in China where just the 1 person caught it yet they sealed the whole city off was an Ebola patient. Zero basis for the theory though, but it was very odd to seal off a city of 100,000 for a disease that is now easily treated and killed. The Chinese sometimes can do poo poo Right when it comes to stuff like that. Lock it the gently caress down and cap anyone who tries to make a run for it. Also they do not have a tradition of handling dead bodies in the families, like the Muslim areas in the West-African highlands and interior have. Neither do they distrust and fear their own government, health care workers and soldiers to the same extent that the extremely disenfranchised and war-weary peoples in WA do. And that's loving saying something because the Chinese are sure as gently caress not on Scandinavian levels of societal trust. The fact that they even have such a thing as centralized power and some semblance of contingency planning at most levels of government is probably going to help, too. Death toll now approaching 1000, by the way.
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Aug 6, 2014 16:59
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Charlz Guybon posted:This is a new strain isn't though? It might be more robust and contagious. Furthermore, the more case the more likely it could mutate into something more contagious. I have heard nothing to the effect that this is a new strain, can you direct me? Remember this is still a bloodborne disease. It's not an H1 virus that hits the respiratory system and is transmitted on microdroplets of moisture from the lungs. It needs to remain in blood to survive, just like HIV, and that blood needs to come into you somehow. It's a killer when it hits, but you can protect yourself from transmission even while you're tending crashing and burning patients that literally sweat infected blood in their death throes.
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Aug 6, 2014 17:03
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Charlz Guybon posted:This is a new strain isn't though? It might be more robust and contagious. Furthermore, the more case the more likely it could mutate into something more contagious. It is Ebola Zaire which is a a known strain, and the nastiest. Sjurygg posted:I have heard nothing to the effect that this is a new strain, can you direct me? It is not only in the blood, it also has been found in tears, sweat, saliva, urine, and semen. Pretty much every bodily fluid harbors the virus.
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Aug 6, 2014 17:30
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WoodrowSkillson posted:It is Ebola Zaire which is a a known strain, and the nastiest. But not sneezes, and it doesn't survive in the environment without a biological vector for long (like pink eye for example). If it did, the death toll would be many many thousands by now. I came here because I couldn't find any Ebola-specific thread. Is this going to be the Ebola thread or should a new one be made so this thread can continue discussing all the other wonderful things occurring in Africa?
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Aug 6, 2014 18:56
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Randandal posted:But not sneezes, and it doesn't survive in the environment without a biological vector for long (like pink eye for example). If it did, the death toll would be many many thousands by now. There will be one when Ebola spreads outside of Africa 
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Aug 6, 2014 19:04
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Randandal posted:But not sneezes, and it doesn't survive in the environment without a biological vector for long (like pink eye for example). If it did, the death toll would be many many thousands by now. Fear of disease is the only thing that will cause posting in an Africa thread.
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Aug 6, 2014 19:05
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To speak about something else than the ebola outbreak, anyone have any opinion or insight about that Barkhane thing? I believe it to be far too much for France's debt-riddled budget (especially with the inevitable defense budget cuts) and far too little to actually work, so it'll end up just being a waste of time and money. And there's also the ongoing mess in the Central African Republic.
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Aug 6, 2014 19:35
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It hasn't spread to the Congo yet, so I'm safe for now! To be honest, the transportation infrastructure here is so poor that the disease wouldn't be able to spread over a large geographic area, and the population density (outside of Kinshasa) is significantly lower than in the currently-affected countries. In Congo news, the US government is leaning on Kabila to abide by the term limits and step down in 2016. The local rumor mill says that Kabila doesn't want to run for a third term, but members of his party are pushing him to stay in power because they're reliant on his patronage. Of course, the country's problems go beyond its own borders, so electing a new president won't do much to change the current situation.
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Aug 6, 2014 19:48
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surrender posted:It hasn't spread to the Congo yet, so I'm safe for now! To be honest, the transportation infrastructure here is so poor that the disease wouldn't be able to spread over a large geographic area, and the population density (outside of Kinshasa) is significantly lower than in the currently-affected countries. What province/region are you in? I work on an Ugandan educational project and would be interested in any insight you may have into eastern DRC. That's good to hear about Kabila, its easy to find a person to put in power, yet most difficult to transition power with peace. WoodrowSkillson posted:It is Ebola Zaire which is a a known strain, and the nastiest. More specifically, I found this to be a good read from the FluTracker's forum.
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Aug 7, 2014 00:44
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My Imaginary GF posted:What province/region are you in? I work on an Ugandan educational project and would be interested in any insight you may have into eastern DRC. That's good to hear about Kabila, its easy to find a person to put in power, yet most difficult to transition power with peace. I've been in Kisangani, Orientale province for 11 months to work on an agriculture development project. Although I'm not up to speed on the events in the east, the city is up in arms because the government is relocating FDLR rebels here: http://www.lavoixdelamerique.com/content/kisangani-destination-finale-pour-les-fdlr/1959006.html
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Aug 7, 2014 07:41
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surrender posted:I've been in Kisangani, Orientale province for 11 months to work on an agriculture development project. Although I'm not up to speed on the events in the east, the city is up in arms because the government is relocating FDLR rebels here: I've heard "the city is up in arms" used colloquially as a figure of speech, like "The city of Houston is up in arms over Matt Schaub's terrible performance last Sunday" but in Kisangani my concern is that you might mean that phrase literally.
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Aug 7, 2014 08:28
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Randandal posted:I've heard "the city is up in arms" used colloquially as a figure of speech, like "The city of Houston is up in arms over Matt Schaub's terrible performance last Sunday" but in Kisangani my concern is that you might mean that phrase literally. Well, there have been a few student protests, but no violence that I've heard of. Kisangani is a really safe place to live in due to the massive UN presence here. And as a Houston native, I was definitely up in arms over Schaub's terrible performances last season
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Aug 7, 2014 09:25
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They have updated the map of ebola spread for up until Aug 4 There are only 30 CDC employees in the entire region at the moment, but they're apparently sending 200 more after declaring the outbreak to level 1 http://www.foxnews.com/health/2014/08/07/cdc-issues-highest-level-alert-amid-ebola-outbreak/
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Aug 8, 2014 00:07
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Nigeria seems to be handling this pretty well, they have shut a hospital where there is probably an Ebola patient. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/08/health-ebola-nigeria-idUKL6N0QE4LR20140808 quote:Nigeria's state oil company NNPC said on Friday it had shut down its own clinic in Lagos' commercial district of Victoria Island, after a suspected Ebola case was admitted there. Just hope its not late, and they can contain it as if it starts taking hold in the general populous of Nigeria then its going to be almost impossible to stop in at least West Africa.
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Aug 8, 2014 18:10
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So I had a 'doctor' on my town's radio this morning telling people they were all going to die of Ebola, but not to worry because drinking salt water and eating onions can protect you. Obviously, this is wrong. So I've been going around and telling people how to actually avoid ebola, and that it is not yet in Benin. But I've been trying to google-fu a good one-page primer like the ones the CDC puts out, but in French. I don't know any good French language medical sources similar to the CDC. Does anyone here know a good place to find some good French language info I can print out and give to local leaders?
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Aug 8, 2014 20:05
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Slaan posted:So I had a 'doctor' on my town's radio this morning telling people they were all going to die of Ebola, but not to worry because drinking salt water and eating onions can protect you. Sounds like he mistook ebola for vampirism  Here's a link to France's INVS http://www.invs.sante.fr/ Here's something about Ebola http://www.invs.sante.fr/Dossiers-t...-au-5-aout-2014 There's a link with information for health workers: http://www.sante.gouv.fr/maladie-a-virus-ebola-informations-a-destination-des-professionnels-de-sante
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Aug 8, 2014 20:16
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Merci Bien! True enough on the upside. If vampires attack, we will be totally ready.
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Aug 8, 2014 20:23
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Slaan posted:So I had a 'doctor' on my town's radio this morning telling people they were all going to die of Ebola, but not to worry because drinking salt water and eating onions can protect you. Do you have a stick handy? Can you drive to the station and rout that hysteria-spreading quack out of the studio with it? If you need a stick, I can send you a stick.
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Aug 8, 2014 20:36
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Slaan posted:So I had a 'doctor' on my town's radio this morning telling people they were all going to die of Ebola, but not to worry because drinking salt water and eating onions can protect you. You are a kind person prone to understatement.
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Aug 9, 2014 01:51
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Zeroisanumber posted:Do you have a stick handy? Can you drive to the station and rout that hysteria-spreading quack out of the studio with it? I'll help. This situation clearly calls for the finest in stick technology available today.
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Aug 9, 2014 02:17
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